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Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future

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Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future Toward a Sustainable 8 and Resilient Future Coordinating Lead Authors: Karen O’Brien (Norway), Mark Pelling (UK), Anand Patwardhan (India) Lead Authors: Stephane Hallegatte (France), Andrew Maskrey (Switzerland), Taikan Oki (Japan), Úrsula Oswald-Spring (Mexico), Thomas Wilbanks (USA), Pius Zebhe Yanda (Tanzania) Review Editors: Carlo Giupponi (Italy), Nobuo Mimura (Japan) Contributing Authors: Frans Berkhout (Netherlands), Reinette Biggs (South Africa), Hans Günter Brauch (Germany), Katrina Brown (UK), Carl Folke (Sweden), Lisa Harrington (USA), Howard Kunreuther (USA), Carmen Lacambra (Colombia), Robin Leichenko (USA), Reinhard Mechler (Germany), Claudia Pahl-Wostl (Germany), Valentin Przyluski (France), David Satterthwaite (UK), Frank Sperling (Germany), Linda Sygna (Norway), Thomas Tanner (UK), Petra Tschakert (Austria), Kirsten Ulsrud (Norway), Vincent Viguié (France) This chapter should be cited as: O’Brien, K., M. Pelling, A. Patwardhan, S. Hallegatte, A. Maskrey, T. Oki, U. Oswald-Spring, T. Wilbanks, and P.Z. Yanda, 2012: Toward a sustainable and resilient future. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 437-486. 437 Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future Chapter 8 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................439 8.1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................441 8.2. Disaster Risk Management as Adaptation: Relationship to Sustainable Development Planning ...............................................................443 8.2.1. Concepts of Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, and Sustainable Development and how they are Related..............443 8.2.2. Sustainability of Ecosystem Services in the Context of Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation......445 8.2.3. The Role of Values and Perceptions in Shaping Response ..............................................................................................446 8.2.4. Technology Choices, Availability, and Access...................................................................................................................447 8.2.5. Tradeoffs in Decisionmaking: Addressing Multiple Scales and Stressors........................................................................448 8.3. Integration of Short- and Long-Term Responses to Extremes.................................................450 8.3.1. Implications of Present-Day Responses for Future Well-Being .......................................................................................450 8.3.2. Barriers to Reconciling Short- and Long-Term Goals.......................................................................................................451 8.3.3. Connecting Short- and Long-Term Actions to Promote Resilience..................................................................................453 8.4. Implications for Access to Resources, Equity, and Sustainable Development ........................454 8.4.1. Capacities and Resources: Availability and Limitations...................................................................................................454 8.4.2. Local, National, and International Winners and Losers....................................................................................................456 8.4.3. Potential Implications for Human Security......................................................................................................................457 8.4.4. Implications for Achieving Relevant International Goals................................................................................................458 8.5. Interactions among Disaster Risk Management, Adaptation to Climate Change Extremes, and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions..............................458 8.5.1. Thresholds and Tipping Points as Limits to Resilience ....................................................................................................458 8.5.2. Adaptation, Mitigation, and Disaster Risk Management Interactions............................................................................459 8.5.2.1. Urban................................................................................................................................................................................................460 8.5.2.2. Rural .................................................................................................................................................................................................461 8.6. Options for Proactive, Long-Term Resilience to Future Climate Extremes..............................462 8.6.1. Planning for the Future....................................................................................................................................................462 8.6.2. Approaches, Tools, and Integrating Practices ..................................................................................................................463 8.6.2.1. Improving Analysis and Modeling Tools............................................................................................................................................464 8.6.2.2. Institutional Approaches...................................................................................................................................................................464 8.6.2.3. Transformational Strategies and Actions for Achieving Multiple Objectives.....................................................................................465 8.6.3. Facilitating Transformational Change ..............................................................................................................................466 8.6.3.1. Adaptive Management .....................................................................................................................................................................467 8.6.3.2. Learning............................................................................................................................................................................................467 8.6.3.3. Innovation ........................................................................................................................................................................................468 8.6.3.4. Leadership ........................................................................................................................................................................................469 8.7. Synergies between Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation for a Resilient and Sustainable Future.......................................469 References ...............................................................................................................................................471 438 Chapter 8 Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future Executive Summary Actions that range from incremental steps to transformational changes are essential for reducing risk from weather and climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence). [8.6, 8.7] Incremental steps aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and value systems, whereas transformation may involve alterations of fundamental attributes of those systems. The balance between incremental and transformational approaches depends on evolving risk profiles and underlying social and ecological conditions. Disaster risk, climate change impacts, and capacity to cope and adapt are unevenly distributed. Vulnerability is often concentrated in poorer countries or groups, although the wealthy can also be vulnerable to extreme events. Where vulnerability is high and adaptive capacity relatively low, changes in extreme climate and weather events can make it difficult for systems to adapt sustainably without transformational changes. Such transformations, where they are required, are facilitated through increased emphasis on adaptive management, learning, innovation, and leadership. Evidence indicates that disaster risk management and adaptation policy can be integrated, reinforcing, and supportive – but this requires careful coordination that reaches across domains of policy and practice (high agreement, medium evidence). [8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.7] Including disaster risk management in resilient and sustainable development pathways is facilitated through integrated, systemic approaches that enhance capacity to cope with, adapt to, and shape unfolding processes of change, while taking into consideration multiple stressors, different prioritized values, and competing policy goals. Development planning and post-disaster recovery have often prioritized strategic economic sectors and infrastructure over livelihoods and well-being in poor and marginalized communities. This can generate missed opportunities for building local capacity and integrating local development visions into longer-term strategies for disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change (high agreement, robust evidence). [8.4.1,
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