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True Corporation TRUE Company update Wed, Aug 18, 2021 True Corporation TRUE True Corporation Bloomberg TRUE TB Public Company Limited Reuters TRUE.BK Tactical: NEUTRAL Core loss remains the key drag (3-month) TRUE hosted an analyst meeting yesterday post 2Q21 results. Stock data Management toned down the group service revenue growth target in Last close (Aug 17) (Bt) 3.08 2021 to low single-digit growth (from mid single-digit). This is within our Target price (Bt) 3.30 Mkt cap (Btbn) 102.77 expectations as we assumed 3% growth. Hence, we keep our 2021F core Mkt cap (US$mn) 3,093 loss at Bt2.2bn, flat YoY. We will keep our tactical recommendation NEUTRAL with a DCF-based TP of Bt3.3 as long as the company reports a Beta L core loss and there is no sign of sustainable core profit turnaround. Upside Mkt cap (%) SET 0.58 Sector % SET 7.93 to share price is capped. Shares issued (mn) 33,368 Par value (Bt) 4.00 Recap of 2Q21 results. TRUE reported a Bt299mn loss, improving from a 12-m high / low (Bt) 3.8 / 2.7 Bt581mn loss in 1Q21, but plunging from the Bt1.3bn profit in 2Q20. Removing FX Avg. daily 6m (US$mn) 7.53 loss shows a core loss of Bt135mn better than the Bt472mn loss in 1Q21 and Foreign limit / actual (%) 49 / 46 Bt467mn loss in 2Q20 and beating consensus forecast of a Bt668mn loss. Free float (%) 31.8 Dividend policy (%) 40 Operationally, TrueMove H reported service revenue of Bt20.2bn, up 1.2% QoQ, but flat YoY. This is better than peers, who saw flat to a slight decline in growth QoQ Price performance and YoY. Net adds were strong at 489k, broken down into 352k postpaid and 136k 7 (Bt) prepaid, bringing total subscribers to 31.7mn. 1H21 core loss accounted for 27% of 6 our full-year forecast. 5 4 Expect 3Q21F core profit to drop QoQ. We believe the lockdown will hurt 3 subscriber acquisition, which will hurt prepaid revenue and prepaid net adds. 2 TRUE — Stock Price Weak spending power will also cut overall mobile revenue, though lower 1 TRUE — Rel. to SET (rebased) marketing spending and ongoing strong demand for fixed broadband will help 0 mitigate the impact. On a YoY basis, we expect to see losses narrow from last Feb-20 Feb-21 Aug-19 Nov-19 Aug-20 Nov-20 Aug-21 year’s huge loss. We stand by our 2021F core loss of Bt2.2bn. May-20 May-21 Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research Neutral tone at analyst meeting. Management admits that the targeted mid single-digit core service growth in 2021F will be challenging in the current Share performance environment and it is now expecting to see low single-digit growth. 5G subs is (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute 0.0 1.3 (12.0) now at 1mn and ARPU uplift is 15%. The company expects to see acceleration in Relative to SET 2.0 2.8 (24.2) 5G adoption in 2H21 upon the introduction of affordable 5G handsets (~Bt5,000 Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research per handset). Despite the losses in 1H21, management will try to push 2H21 into profit by optimizing its cost structure and growing revenue. However, we see this as quite challenging as we expect weaker earnings in 3Q21. Asset divestment. TRUE has no plan to divest more assets to DIF because management anticipates a good stream of cash flow. Management also said that it has no plan to divest DIF shares at this time, but, again, did not say that the current level of holding is the minimum. Hence, we continue to believe that further divestment of DIF shares is possible, but that the timeline is unclear. Forecasts and valuation Analyst Year to 31 Dec Unit 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Kittisorn Pruitipat, CFA, FRM Revenue (Btmn) 140,943 138,212 149,160 155,328 161,810 Fundamental Investment EBITDA (Btmn) 39,741 61,021 66,260 67,000 69,109 Analyst on Securities Core profit (Btmn) 5,637 (2,209) (2,222) (2,043) 757 Reported profit (Btmn) 5,637 1,048 (2,222) (2,043) 757 (662) 949 1007 Core EPS (Bt) 0.17 (0.07) (0.07) (0.06) 0.02 [email protected] DPS (Bt) 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.01 P/E, core (x) 18.2 na. na. na. 135.8 EPS growth, core (%) (19.9) na. na. na. na. P/BV, core (x) 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 ROE (%) 4.3 na. na. na. 1.0 Dividend yield (%) 2.9 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 FCF yield (%) (24.9) (31.3) (1.5) 15.7 22.3 EV/EBIT (x) 9.5 7.1 6.2 5.6 4.8 EBIT growth, core (%) (29.6) 51.7 15.7 4.5 7.2 EV/CE (x) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 ROCE (%) (2.4) 2.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 EBITDA growth (%) (25.5) 53.5 8.6 1.1 3.1 Source: SCBS Investment Research See the end of this report for disclaimer 1 True Corporation PLC Value proposition TRUE is the second largest mobile operator in Thailand. TRUE is Thailand’s most fully- integrated telecommunications provider, offering mobile, broadband internet, television and content as well as digital and other telecommunication services. Business outlook Business outlook in the mobile segment for the mid- to long-term is challenging for its 5G business as we believe the key growth driver is industrial users where the potential business case is now limited. Another challenge for the company is that its free cash flow is still negative, forcing it to increase its debt every year to fill the gap. Bullish views Bearish views 1. Rising subscriber and revenue market share momentum 1. Core profit is still in the red, free cash flow is negative and there is no sign of turnaround 2. Commercial use case for 5G enterprise is limited Key catalysts Factor Event Impact Comment Latest development Government imposes lockdown Negative This limits marketing activities, hurting the prepaid segment and also spending power, which in turn will affect overall mobile revenue. Near-term earnings 3Q21F earnings momentum Weaker QoQ, but better QoQ drop due to the impact of the outlook YoY lockdown while YoY growth will be off last year’s high loss. Factors to be aware Postpaid competition Negative Since the competition for 5G consumer in 2021 segment is unequal, we believe one operator will have to use pricing strategy to retain its postpaid subscribers Sensitivity analysis Factor Earnings impact TP impact 1ppt change in TrueMove H revenue 30% Bt0.1/sh. Wed, Aug 18, 2021 2 True Corporation PLC Financial statement Profit and Loss Statement FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Total revenue (Btmn) 124,719 139,519 161,820 140,943 138,212 149,160 155,328 161,810 Cost of goods sold (Btmn) (95,600) (102,096) (105,780) (107,411) (100,638) (114,326) (120,502) (124,596) Gross profit (Btmn) 29,120 37,423 56,041 33,533 37,574 34,834 34,826 37,214 SG&A (Btmn) (29,611) (33,306) (35,635) (28,232) (26,928) (28,191) (29,512) (30,744) Other income (Btmn) (268) 2,883 (3,751) 5,096 4,621 4,621 4,622 4,622 Interest expense (Btmn) (6,166) (8,294) (7,477) (9,539) (18,476) (18,490) (16,970) (14,660) Pre-tax profit (Btmn) (6,926) (1,293) 9,178 858 (3,208) (7,226) (7,035) (3,568) Corporate tax (Btmn) (490) (1,316) (6,010) (2,172) (19) 1,445 1,407 714 Equity a/c profits (Btmn) 4,609 3,154 3,789 6,887 4,153 3,436 3,462 3,488 Minority interests (Btmn) (7) 6 77 64 123 123 123 123 Core profit (Btmn) (2,814) 551 7,035 5,637 (2,209) (2,222) (2,043) 757 Extra-ordinary items (Btmn) 0 0 0 0 3,257 0 0 0 Net Profit (Btmn) (2,814) 551 7,035 5,637 1,048 (2,222) (2,043) 757 EBITDA (Btmn) 27,320 43,267 53,328 39,741 61,021 66,260 67,000 69,109 Core EPS (Bt) (0.08) 0.02 0.21 0.17 (0.07) (0.07) (0.06) 0.02 Net EPS (Bt) (0.08) 0.02 0.21 0.17 0.03 (0.07) (0.06) 0.02 DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.01 Balance Sheet FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Total current assets (Btmn) 122,678 111,683 124,692 134,449 104,406 110,921 110,717 106,975 Total fixed assets (Btmn) 144,449 176,196 205,915 230,282 336,495 334,890 317,870 299,898 Total assets (Btmn) 448,960 459,182 495,569 523,993 617,548 625,428 611,230 592,603 Total loans (Btmn) 118,716 127,454 155,324 212,729 222,999 230,000 210,000 180,000 Total current liabilities (Btmn) 160,844 197,803 204,260 154,182 175,786 184,881 190,874 199,618 Total long-term liabilities (Btmn) 156,389 133,195 157,425 243,792 356,145 359,630 341,626 313,642 Total liabilities (Btmn) 317,233 330,998 361,685 397,974 531,931 544,511 532,500 513,260 Paid-up capital (Btmn) 133,473 133,473 133,473 133,473 133,473 133,473 133,473 133,473 Total equity (Btmn) 131,728 128,184 133,884 126,019 85,617 80,916 78,730 79,343 BVPS (Bt) 3.93 3.82 3.99 3.76 2.55 2.41 2.35 2.37 Cash Flow Statement FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Core Profit (Btmn) (2,814) 551 7,035 5,637 (2,209) (2,222) (2,043) 757 Depreciation and amortization (Btmn) 28,080 36,267 36,673 29,344 45,754 54,997 57,065 58,016 Operating cash flow (Btmn) 53,039 36,265 31,726 56,841 53,517 64,154 67,374 72,317 Investing cash flow (Btmn) (95,395) (77,591) (56,137) (82,382) (85,717) (65,740) (51,190) (49,355) Financing cash flow (Btmn) 81,932 8,897 26,831 54,272 7,124 4,645 (20,021) (30,021) Net cash flow (Btmn) 39,576 (32,430) 2,419 28,732 (25,076) 3,059 (3,836) (7,059) Key Financial Ratios FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Gross margin (%) 23.3 26.8 34.6 23.8 27.2 23.4 22.4 23.0 Operating margin (%) (0.4) 3.0 12.6 3.8 7.7 4.5 3.4 4.0 EBITDA margin (%) 21.9 31.0 33.0 28.2 44.2 44.4 43.1 42.7 EBIT margin (%) 16.6 24.1 24.6 19.9 30.8 33.0 33.1 34.1 Net profit margin (%) (2.3) 0.4 4.3 4.0 0.8 (1.5) (1.3) 0.5 ROE (%) (2.1) 0.4 5.3 4.5 1.2 (2.7) (2.6) 1.0 ROA (%) (0.8) 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.2 (0.4) (0.3) 0.1 Net D/E (%) 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.1 Interest coverage (%) 4.4 5.2 7.1 4.2 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.7 Debt service coverage (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Payout Ratio (%) 0.0 187.6 42.7 53.3 222.8 0.0 0.0 45.0 Main
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