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Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, People’S Republic of China 分类号：_______________ 单位代码：_______________ 密 级：_______________ 学 号：_______________ 硕士学位论文 中国北方城市与沙漠地区气候响应对比 CLIMATE RESPONSE OVER SELECTED URBAN AND DESERT AREAS IN NORTHERN CHINA 申 请 人 姓 名： 夏 墨 古 _ 指 导 教 师： 申双和 教授 _ 合 作 教 师： _ 专 业 名 称： 气 象 学 _ 研 究 方 向： 应用气候 _ 所 在 学 院： 国际教育学院 _ 二〇一二 年 六月 CLIMATE RESPONSE OVER SELECTED URBAN AND DESERT AREAS IN NORTHERN CHINA Dissertation Submitted to NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY For the award of degree of Master of Science in Meteorology By: Mugume Isaac Dissertation Supervisor: Professor Shen Shuanghe June 2012 独创性声明 本人声明所呈交的论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得 的研究成果。本论文除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的内容外，不包含其 他人或其他机构已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得南京信 息工程大学或其他教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。其他同志对 本研究所做的贡献均已在论文中作了声明并表示谢意。 学位论文作者签名：____________ 签字日期：______________ 关于论文使用授权的说明 南京信息工程大学、国家图书馆、中国学术期刊（光盘版）杂志社、 中国科学技术信息研究所的《中国学位论文全文数据库》有权保留本人 所送交学位论文的复印件和电子文档，可以采用影印、缩印或其他复制 手段保存论文，并通过网络向社会提供信息服务。本人电子文档的内容 和纸质论文的内容相一致。除在保密期内的保密论文外，允许论文被查 阅和借阅，可以公布（包括刊登）论文的全部或部分内容。论文的公布 （包括刊登）授权南京信息工程大学研究生部办理。 □公开 □保密（_____年 _____月） (保密的学位论文在解密后应遵 守此协议) 学位论文作者签名：_____________ 签字日期：_______________ 指导教师签名：______________ 签字日期：_______________ DECLARATION I, Mugume Isaac, declare that the work presented in this thesis is, to the best of my knowledge and belief my own research work. It is being submitted in partial fulfilment for the requirement for the award of Master of Science in Meteorology at the College of Applied Meteorology of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of China. I further declare that this work has never been submitted in part or whole for any purpose to any academic institution or anywhere. The thesis is presented with the consent of my supervisor. The pieces of work by other authors, which were a source of reference and information, have been duly acknowledged by references to the authors. Signature of candidate: Signature of supervisor : AGREEMENT ON AUTHORIZED USE OF THESIS Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, China National Library, Chinese Academic Journal (CD) Magazine, China Degree Thesis Full Text Database of ISTIC have the right to keep the copies and electronic version of degree thesis, use methods of photocopy, reduction printing, etc. to keep the thesis, and provide information service to society by internet. The content of the electronic version thesis is in conformity with that of the paper thesis. The thesis is available for reference and borrowing and its full text or partial text can be published except those confidential theses during confidential period. Authorized publication of the thesis should be conducted by Graduate School, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. 口 Public 口 Confidential ( Year Month ) (Confidential thesis should obey this agreement when confidential period is ended) Signature of Thesis Author: Date: Signature of Supervisor: Date: II 摘 要 诸多研究已经证明全球气候变化背景下，区域气温与降水亦随时间 推移发生变化，但关键问题在于不同地区、不同气象要素对气候变化的 响应是保持一致，还是部分地区部分要素随时间呈现增加趋势，而另一 部分地区另一部分要素呈现减少趋势。以此为切入点，研究选择 10 个位 于北方城市市区气象站(参见 1.4.2 小节表 1.1)和同纬度 10 个沙漠腹地气 象站(参见 1.4.2 小节表 1.2)1981 年至 2010 年逐日温度(最高气温、最低气 温)和降水资料(参见 3.1 节)，基于 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验和回归分析方 法探究中国北方城市与沙漠地区气温和降水变化趋势。 针对气温的研究结果表明：(1) 近 30 年来中国北方城市与沙漠地区 春季气温日较差均呈减小趋势，但依据回归斜率，城市区域夏季气温日 较差呈减小趋势(-0.140 oC/10 年)，沙漠地区夏季气温日较差呈增加趋势 (0.068 oC/10 年)。不同区域对比来看，城市地区气温日较差减小速率(春 季：-0.307 oC/10 年)大于沙漠地区减小速率(春季：-0.023 oC/10 年)；而不 同时间段对比来看，年均气温日较差减小速率要快于夏季、小于春季减 小速率。(2) 沙漠地区日最高气温年际增速(0.510 oC/10 年)、春季增速 (0.540 oC/10 年)和夏季增速(0.550 oC/10 年)均大于城市区域增速(年际： 0.325 oC/10 年、春季：0.252 oC/10 年和夏季：0.389 oC/10 年)。城市和沙 漠地区高温日数和极端高温事件也呈增加态势(详见 4.3.1.1 和 4.3.2.1 小 节)。(3) 就日最低气温而言，中国北方城市与沙漠地区均呈升高态势， 并且与日最低气温年际增速相比，沙漠地区春季和夏季日最低气温增速 (夏季：0.536 oC/10 年和春季 0.560 oC/10 年)均高于同纬度城市地区(夏 季：0.529 oC/10 年和春季：0.560 oC/10 年)，而霜冻日数与极端低温事件 均呈减少态势(详见 4.3.1.2 和 4.3.2.2 小节)。 针对降水的研究结果表明：(1) 中国北方沙漠地区降水总量总体呈现 增加趋势，特别是春季降水总量增速更为显著。与此相比，同纬度城市 区域降水总量仅在春季稍呈增加态势(M-K, z=0.095)且低于沙漠地区降水 总量增速(M-K, z=0.160)，全年和夏季而言均表现为减少态势(M-K, z=- 0.058 和-0.133)。(2) 与降水总量类似，沙漠地区降水日数总体呈现增加态 势，春季降水日数增速高于全年降水日数，夏季降水日数则呈减少态势。 I 同纬度城市区域降水日数仅在春季稍呈增加态势(M-K, z=0.041)且低于沙 漠地区降水日数增速(M-K, z=0.101)，全年和夏季而言均表现为减少态势 (M-K, z=-0.064 和-0.131)。(3) 就极端降水事件而言，城市和沙漠地区春季 极端降水事件基本一致，均呈增加态势，夏季极端事件变化则有差异，沙 漠地区呈现增加态势而城市区域呈现减少趋势。 关键词：气候响应；Mann-Kendall趋势检验法；回归分析法；极端事 件；中国北方城市与沙漠地区 II ABSTRACT Many studies carried out have shown evidence of regional temperature and precipitation variability along with global climate changes. A key issue is whether these variability follow trends that are uniform or others have increasing trends while others decreasing trend. And this study was carried out using Mann-Kendall trend test method and regression analysis method with the data observed by a total of 20stations to investigate the trends of temperature and precipitation in northern China. 10stations were selected from urban areas (section 1.4.2: table 1.1) and another 10stations were selected from desert areas of China (section 1.4.2: table 1.2). The data for temperature (maximum temperature, minimum temperature) and precipitation was obtained for these 20stations for the period 1981-2010 (section 3.1). Results for temperature (sections 4.1.1 and 4.1.2), indicated that: the diurnal temperature range (DTR) trend was decreasing for both desert areas and urban cities in spring but decreasing for urban cities and increasing for desert areas in summer according to regression rates (urban cities: -0.140 oC/decade and deserts: 0.068 oC/decade). It was found out that DTR for the urban cities was decreasing at a faster rate (spring: -0.307 oC/decade) than that for the desert areas (spring: -0.023 oC/decade). The rate of decrease for DTR on annual scale was greater than for summer but smaller than for spring. Maximum temperature for the desert areas was increasing at a faster rate (annual: 0.510 oC/decade, spring: 0.540 oC/decade and summer: 0.550 oC/decade) than that (annual: 0.325 oC/decade, spring: 0.252 oC/decade and summer: 0.389 oC/decade) for the urban cities. The high temperature days and high temperature extremes for both the desert areas and urban cities were exhibiting an increasing trend (section 4.3.1.1 and 4.3.2.1). The minimum temperature was also increasing for both desert areas and urban cities. It was also found that minimum temperature for the desert areas was increasing at a faster rate than that for the urban cities for summer and spring seasons (deserts: 0.536 oC/decade and 0.560 oC/decade and urban cities: 0.529 oC/decade and 0.560 oC/decade) compared to annually (deserts: 0.520 oC/decade, urban cities: 0.566 oC/decade). The frost days and low temperature extremes for both the desert areas and urban cities were exhibiting a decreasing trend (section 4.3.1.2 and 4.3.2.2). III For precipitation, the results obtained in this study indicated that: the rainfall amount was increasing for desert areas at a rate greater than that of the selected urban cities with increase in spring season more significant than the annual scale and summer seasons. For the urban cities, the rainfall amount was even decreasing on annual scale and in summer season (M-K, z=-0.058 and -0.133) with a slight increase in spring season (M-K, z=0.095) which was still less than the rate for the desert areas (M-K, z=0.160). The rain days are increasing for desert areas at a rate greater than that of the selected urban cities. The increase was more significant in the spring season than the annual scale and the summer season was also witnessing decreasing rain days. For the urban cities, the rain days were even decreasing on annual scale and in summer season (M-K, z=- 0.064 and -0.131) with a slight increase in the spring (M-K, z=0.041) which was still less than the rate for the desert areas (M-K, z=0.101). For precipitation extremes, both the desert areas and urban cities were exhibiting an increasing trend of spring precipitation extremes and that of summer precipitation extremes in deserts but decreasing trend of summer precipitation extremes in urban cities (section 4.3.1.3 and 4.3.2.3). Key words: climate response; Mann-Kendall trend test method; regression analysis method; extreme events; urban and desert areas in northern China IV TABLE OF CONTENT Page 独创性声明 关于论文使用授权的说明 DECLARATION AGREEMENT ON AUTHORIZED USE OF THESIS 摘要 I ABSTRACT III LIST OF EQUATIONS, FIGURES AND TABLES VIII ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS XII CHAPTER ONE 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY 1 1.2 AIM FOR THE STUDY 6 1.2.1 General Aim 6 1.2.2 Objectives of the study 6 1.3 JUSTIFICATION FOR THE STUDY 7 1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY 8 1.4.1 Climate Parameters 8 1.4.2 Geographical area 8 CHAPTER TWO 11 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW 11 2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY 11 2.2 TEMPERATURE 12 2.3 PRECIPITATION 15 2.4 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND PRECIPITATION 17 2.5 REMAINING PROBLEM: COMMENT ON LITERATURE REVIEW 17 CHAPTER THREE 18 3.0 DATA AND METHODOLOGY 18 3.1 DATA USED IN THE STUDY 18 V 3.1.1 Temperature data 18 3.1.2 Precipitation data 19 3.2 METHODS USED IN THE STUDY 19 3.2.1 The relative deficit or surplus (relative anomalies) 19 3.2.2 Standard deviation and coefficient of variation 20 3.2.3 The Mann-Kendall trend test 21 3.2.4 The Beard formula for climate extremes 22 CHAPTER FOUR 24 4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 24 4.1 TEMPERATURE RESPONSE 24 4.1.1 Over desert areas 24 4.1.1.1 Annual temperature trends 24 4.1.1.2 Spring temperature trends 27 4.1.1.3 Summer temperature trends 31 4.1.2 Over selected cities 34 4.1.2.1 Annual temperature trends 34 4.1.2.2 Spring temperature trends 37 4.1.2.3 Summer temperature trends 40 4.2 PRECIPITATION RESPONSE 43 4.2.1
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