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Domestic Challenges and International Policy of Vietnam and China in the South China Sea Dispute

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Domestic Challenges and International Policy of Vietnam and China in the South China Sea Dispute Domestic Challenges and International Policy of Vietnam and China in the South China Sea Dispute Aaron Phillip Waddell A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences (HASS) 01 October 2020 Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Australia's Global University Surname/Family Name Waddell Given Name/s Aaron Phillip Abbreviation for degree as give in the University calendar MPhil Faculty UNSW Canberra School School of Humanities and Social Sciences (HASS) Domestic Challenges and International Policy of Vietnam and China in the Thesis Title South China Sea Dispute Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE) Robert Putnam has famously noted in his two-level game theory that a counby's domestic and international spheres are interacted and a country's foreign policy could be driven by domestic politics. My dissertation addresses the question of what the implications of Vietnam's and China's current domestic challenges are for their foreign policy in theSouth China Sea (SCS). The SCS dispute is contemporary, including competing territorial sovereignty claims andVietnam and China are the two largest claimants. I articulate the countries' domestic challenges in three domains namely economic growth, regime legitimacy, controlling territ01y and sovereignty and analyse how these issues impact on the countries' SCS policy. I propose that Beijing's policy to keep the SCS situation under control and to contain any intensifying provocations of certain neighbouring countries, including Vietnamis a result of China's effortsin managing current domestic challenges. I argue that theCommunist Party of Vietnam's (CPV) maritime strategy is to sustain economic growth to address their current domestic issues. This created a dilemma for Vietnam as theycould only implement the maritime strategy without any coercion in the SCS, and consequently, there were limitations in the CPV's formation of SCS policies against China. My dissertation expands the range of study of China's and Vietnam'sSCS policies by applying theintegration between domestic and international domains to explain the drivers of the countries' SCS policies. I conclude with a discussion of on-going challenges facing both China and Vietnam in developing effective SCS 'strategy and recommend furtherresearch on multilateral management regime in theSCS and Vietnam'smilitary modernisation for deterring China. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). ........ Witness Signature Date The Univel'Sil recognisesthat there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. eQR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: Originality Statement I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged. Signed....................................... Date......02 October 2020......... 1 Abstract Robert Putnam has famously noted in his two-level game theory that a country’s domestic and international spheres are interacted and a country’s foreign policy could be driven by domestic politics. My dissertation addresses the question of what the implications of Vietnam’s and China’s current domestic challenges are for their foreign policy in the South China Sea (SCS). The SCS dispute is contemporary, including competing territorial sovereignty claims and Vietnam and China are the two largest claimants. I articulate the countries’ domestic challenges in three domains namely economic growth, regime legitimacy, controlling territory and sovereignty and analyse how these issues impact on the countries’ SCS policy. I propose that Beijing’s policy to keep the SCS situation under control and to contain any intensifying provocations of certain neighbouring countries, including Vietnam is a result of China’s efforts in managing current domestic challenges. I argue that the Communist Party of Vietnam’s (CPV) maritime strategy is to sustain economic growth to address their current domestic issues. This created a dilemma for Vietnam as they could only implement the maritime strategy without any coercion in the SCS, and consequently, there were limitations in the CPV’s formation of SCS policies against China. My dissertation expands the range of study of China’s and Vietnam’s SCS policies by applying the integration between domestic and international domains to explain the drivers of the countries’ SCS policies. I conclude with a discussion of on-going challenges facing both China and Vietnam in developing effective SCS strategy and recommend further research on multilateral management regime in the SCS and Vietnam’s military modernisation for deterring China. 2 For my father Ronald Phillip Waddell, He taught me to be kind, brave and wise. I hope you know that I’m so proud of you and that it makes me proud of me. My Dad In your memory 18 September 1950 to 25 December 2019 3 Table of Contents Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... 7 Chapter I: Introduction ............................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Literature Review ........................................................................................................... 14 1.2 Research Topic and Key Questions ............................................................................... 9 1.3 Central Argument .......................................................................................................... 28 1.4 Two-level Game Theory ................................................................................................ 30 1.5 Contribution to Literature ............................................................................................. 34 1.6 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 36 1.7 Outline of the thesis ....................................................................................................... 37 Chapter II: Vietnam’s and China’s Policies toward to the South China Sea ................... 38 2.1 Current tension over the SCS ....................................................................................... 38 2.2 Vietnam’s and China’s Claims and Actions over the SCS ....................................... 40 2.2.1 Vietnam’s Claims and Actions over the SCS ....................................................... 40 2.2.2 China’s Claims and Actions over the SCS ........................................................... 47 2.2.3 Geostrategic co-operation in the SCS ................................................................... 54 2.3 Vietnam’s and China’s South China Sea Policies ...................................................... 57 2.3.1 Vietnam’s SCS Policies ........................................................................................... 57 2.3.2 China’s SCS Policies ................................................................................................ 60 2.4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 66 Chapter III: China’s Domestic Challenges and implications for Beijing’s Foreign Policy for the SCS ................................................................................................................................. 68 3.1 China’s Current Domestic Challenges ........................................................................ 68 3.1.1 Challenges in fostering sustainable and equitable economic growth ............. 69 3.1.2 Challenges in maintaining regime legitimacy .................................................... 72 3.1.3 On-going attention on securing the population from conflict and territorial control ................................................................................................................................ 73 3.1.4 China’s Primary Domestic Interest
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