Where Will Fleeing Afghans Go?

POLICY BRIEF 08.26.21 Where Will Fleeing Afghans Go?

Kelsey Norman, Ph.D., Fellow and Director, Women’s Rights, Human Rights, and Refugees Program, Baker Institute

We are in the midst of one of the largest tens of thousands of Afghans fled each week and most rapid humanitarian evacuation on foot to neighboring countries,4 following missions in U.S. history. On August 15, 2021, previous patterns of Afghan displacement. the Taliban reclaimed the Afghan capital Historically, after the 1979 Soviet invasion, city of Kabul, and the priority of both the 1.5 million Afghans fled to neighboring U.S. and NATO became securing the Kabul Pakistan and Iran, and by1986 nearly airport in order to evacuate individuals out five million Afghans refugees were living of the country. By August 25, the White between the two countries.5 Some Afghans House claimed that the U.S. had facilitated eventually repatriated, but after the U.S. the evacuation—in collaboration with invasion of Afghanistan, a new generation coalition forces, international organizations, of Afghans fled to the two neighboring and private donors—of approximately states. As a result of these cumulative 80,000 people from Kabul airport since displacements, by the end of 2020, nearly August 14, although it is not clear how 1.5 million Afghans were living in Pakistan, many of those individuals were American while Iran hosted 780,000.6 versus Afghan citizens.1 Currently, the Taliban control all On August 24, a Taliban spokesperson the main land crossing points with said the road to Kabul airport was closed to Afghanistan's neighbors and have said Afghan nationals. President Joe Biden had they do not want Afghans to leave the previously stated that he would consider country, while Iran and Pakistan have extending the evacuation mission beyond increased security on their borders.7 August 31 if American citizens remained in Nonetheless, desperate individuals and In the months following Afghanistan, but has now reaffirmed the families, including those from the ethnically the United Nations’ 31 deadline and mentioned the possibility targeted Hazara minority, may still attempt withdrawal in May 2021, of leaving even sooner.2 The Taliban has to cross with the assistance of smugglers. warned of “consequences” if U.S. or British In both Iran and Pakistan, Afghan refugees tens of thousands troops remain in the country beyond the face barriers to local integration, and both of Afghans fled each end of the month.3 Regardless of whether countries have historically expelled mass week on foot to the August 31 deadline is adhered to, it is numbers of Afghans back to Afghanistan neighboring countries. clear that the window for evacuations is in violation of international law. But with rapidly closing. Turkey reinforcing its border with Iran and with Europe determined to avoid a repeat of its 2015 refugee “crisis,”8 most Afghans SURROUNDING COUNTRIES will have little choice but to remain in Iran Most Afghans who have managed to leave and Pakistan, unless they can be resettled the country have not done so via the Kabul to a third country like the United States. airport. Instead, in the months following the United Nations’ withdrawal in May 2021, RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // POLICY BRIEF // 08.26.21

administration took measures to widen FIGURE 1 — NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES HOSTED THE HIGHEST the program and address the backlog, its NUMBER OF AFGHANS IN 2020 actions were viewed by refugee advocates as too little too late.10 Notably, this program Countries with the most Afghan refugees and asylum seekers is not open to other groups of Afghans who are currently at risk, including journalists, Pakistan 1,450,000 women’s rights advocates, and human Iran 780,000 rights defenders. These individuals were Germany 181,100 promoted and, in some cases, funded by the Turkey 129,300 United States during its 20-year presence in Afghanistan, but will now face a threat Austria 46,600 of death as a result of the work the U.S. France 45,100 encouraged them to undertake. Greece 41,200 On August 24, the Biden administration Sweden 31,300 acquiesced to the demands of refugee advocates who had asked that Afghans Switzerland 15,400 be allowed to enter the U.S. under a India 15,100 little-known immigration tool called Italy 13,400 humanitarian parole. Invoking humanitarian UK 12,600 parole has historical precedents, such as its use by President Gerald Ford to Australia 12,400 evacuate Vietnamese nationals during Belgium 8,900 the fall of Saigon in 1975. Importantly, it Indonesia 7,600 will allow the Biden administration to evacuate individuals who have not yet qualified for the SIV program, as well as SOURCE BBC, using UNHCR data for 2020 human rights defenders and other at-risk Afghans, though the current challenge U.S. RESETTLEMENT will be ensuring that these individuals can actually reach the Kabul airport in order to Refugee resettlement to the United States be airlifted out of the country. Approximately is a long and arduous process, taking years Some evacuated Afghans have been 77,000 Afghans were from start to finish, and only available flown directly to military bases on U.S. soil, to less than one percent of the world’s including Fort McCoy in Wisconsin, Fort successfully admitted refugees. To specifically assist Afghans with Lee in Virginia, Joint Base McGuire-Dix- to the U.S. through the resettlement, the U.S. government created Lakehurst in New Jersey, or Fort Bliss in SIV program between the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) Texas. Once processed, these individuals or 2006 and May 2021, program in 2006 to provide Afghans who families will be relocated across the U.S. via worked for the U.S. military as interpreters resettlement agencies, which are nonprofits but the program or in another capacity for at least two and faith-based organizations contracted by was also riddled years with a pathway for resettlement in the U.S. government. with bureaucratic the United States, along with their family However, the majority of evacuated inconsistencies and members. Approximately 77,000 Afghans individuals are not being flown directly to the United States, but are instead being sent backlogs, leaving at were successfully admitted to the U.S. through the SIV program between 2006 to overseas airbases and third countries, least 18,000 applicants and May 2021, but the program was also including Sudan, Columbia, Kosovo, and and 53,000 family riddled with bureaucratic inconsistencies Albania.11 Biden’s worry of a reprisal from members at risk. and backlogs, leaving at least 18,000 right-wing politicians, news outlets, and applicants and 53,000 family members at voters likely explains his administration’s risk.9 The program slowed further during attempts to look for third country solutions, the Trump administration and as a result of rather than bringing evacuated Afghans the COVID-19 pandemic. But while the Biden directly to the United States.

2 WHERE WILL FLEEING AFGHANS GO?

strong enough stance in protecting Afghans RECOMMENDATIONS in Pakistan,13 supporting its operation and First, Biden should not let his apparent fear also funding smaller NGOs that continue to of a right-wing nativist backlash prevent assist Afghans in Pakistan and Iran in the him from admitting refugees directly to U.S. coming months and years will prove critical territory. Biden would do well to remember as part of the broader U.S. response to Afghan that resettling Afghans—especially wartime displacement. allies—has support from a wide, cross- cutting swath of voters, including U.S. ENDNOTES veterans. In fact, a CBS/YouGov poll from August 18, 2021, found that 81% of voters 1. Matthew Brown, et al., "Latest on supported resettling Afghans who worked Afghanistan: At least 500 Americans are with the U.S. military.12 trying to get out; 4,500 evacuated so As such, the Biden administration should far," USA Today, Aug. 25, 2021, https:// refrain from sending evacuated Afghans to www.usatoday.com/story/news/ U.S. overseas bases and third countries like politics/2021/08/25/afghanistan-news- Columbia or Sudan. After the fall of Saigon evacuations-hit-88-k-week-until- in 1975, the Ford administration evacuated withdrawal-deadline/5583587001/. approximately 130,000 Vietnamese 2. Amanda Macias, “Biden says refugees directly to U.S. soil via Guam. As Afghanistan evacuation on track to finish by the International Refugee Assistance Project Aug. 31 deadline as threats to Kabul airport (IRAP) argues, the Biden administration grow,” CNBC, Aug. 24, 2021, https://www. could again use Guam to temporarily host cnbc.com/2021/08/24/biden-sticks-to- Afghans while they are fully vetted, given aug-31-afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline. health checks, and processed for visas. Flying html. evacuated Afghans to Guam will allow the 3. Amanda Macias, “Taliban will no U.S. government to conduct these checks longer allow Afghans to go to Kabul airport for on U.S. soil, offering real protections and evacuation, spokesman says,” CNBC, Aug. 24, a clearer path to resettlement in another 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/ geographic region of the U.S, whereas taliban-will-no-longer-allow-afghans-to- distributing Afghans across the globe is more go-to-kabul-airport-for-evacuation.html. likely to leave Afghans languishing in lengthy 4. Christina Goldbaum and Fatima bureaucratic quagmires. Faizi, “As Fears Grip Afghanistan, Hundreds Second, the U.S. must dramatically of Thousands Flee,” New York Times, increase the resettlement of Afghans from July 31, 2021, https://www.nytimes. neighboring countries like Pakistan, and com/2021/07/31/world/asia/afghanistan- also step up its humanitarian assistance migration taliban.html?referringSource=artic to the United Nations High Commissioner leShare. for Refugees (UNHCR) and smaller NGOs 5. Tazreena Sajjad, “Commentary: working with Afghans. Pakistan and Iran Where do Afghanistan’s refugees go?” Times have already hosted the vast majority Record Opinion, Aug. 23, 2021, https://www. of Afghans over the course of the United pressherald.com/2021/08/23/commentary- States’ military campaign, and the U.S. where-do-afghanistans-refugees-go/. needs to better share the responsibility, 6. These numbers only account for especially given its direct role in Afghan individuals registered with the UNHCR, and an displacement. The Biden administration estimated additional one million Afghans live proposed a refugee resettlement ceiling of in each country. 125,000 for FY 2022, but should raise this 7. Visual Journalism Team, "Afghanistan: further considering the number of Afghans Where will refugees go after Taliban currently leaving their country as a direct takeover?" BBC, Aug. 25, 2021, https://www. result of the U.S. withdrawal. And while the bbc.com/news/world-asia-58283177. UNHCR has been criticized for not taking a 3 RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // POLICY BRIEF // 08.26.21

8. Silvia Amaro, “Europe fears a repeat of 13. Human Rights Watch, “Pakistan 2015 refugee crisis as Afghanistan collapses,” Coercion, UN Complicity: The Mass Forced CNBC, Aug. 18, 2021, https://www.cnbc. Return of Afghan Refugees,” Feb. 13, 2017, com/2021/08/18/europe-fears-a-repeat- https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/02/13/ of-2015-refugee-crisis-as-afghanistan- pakistan-coercion-un-complicity/mass- collapses.html. forced-return-afghan-refugees. 9. Muzaffar Chishti and Julia Gelatt, “U.S. Government Rush to Evacuate Afghan Allies and Allocate Sufficient Special Visas Comes AUTHORS at Eleventh Hour,” Migration Policy Institute, Kelsey P. Norman, Ph.D., is a fellow for the July 27, 2021, https://www.migrationpolicy. Middle East at the Baker Institute and org/article/us-government-rush-evacuate- director of the Women’s Rights, Human afghan-allies-allocate-special-visas. Rights and Refugees Program. Her research 10. Jennifer Hansler and Nicole Gaouette, focuses on women’s rights, human rights, “Biden administration expands access to and refugee and migration issues in the refugee program for Afghans who worked Middle East and North Africa. with U.S.,” CNN, August 2, 2021, https:// www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/politics/ us-afghan-siv-refugee-program/index. html. 11. Idrees Ali, Humeyra Pamuk,and Jonathan Landay, “In desperation, U.S. scours for countries willing to house Afghan refugees,” Reuters, Aug. 13, 2021, https:// www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/ See more policy briefs at: desperation-us-scours-countries-willing- www.bakerinstitute.org/policy-briefs house-afghan-refugees-2021-08-13/. 12. Andrew Solender, “Poll Shows This publication was written by a 81% Of Americans Support Taking in researcher (or researchers) who Afghans Who Assisted U.S.,” Forbes, Aug. participated in a Baker Institute project. Wherever feasible, this research is 22, 2021, https://www.forbes.com/ reviewed by outside experts before it is sites/andrewsolender/2021/08/22/ released. However, the views expressed poll-shows-81-of-americans-support- herein are those of the individual taking-in-afghans-who-assisted- author(s), and do not necessarily us/?sh=42c2ef086963. represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

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Cite as: Norman, Kelsey. 2021. Where Will Fleeing Afghans Go?. Policy brief no. 08.26.21. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas. https://doi.org/10.25613/CRYQ-6A33