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Motilal Oswal Media Sector Conference 2012 Serious Intent from Government/Regulator Driving Digitization Progress; Continued Friction Among Participants a Risk Factor

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Motilal Oswal Media Sector Conference 2012 Serious Intent from Government/Regulator Driving Digitization Progress; Continued Friction Among Participants a Risk Factor Sector update | 10 October 2012 Media Motilal Oswal Media Sector Conference 2012 Serious intent from government/regulator driving digitization progress; continued friction among participants a risk factor Key takeaways: Serious intent of government and regulator remains the We believe execution is the biggest challenge due to most important factor driving the progress on mandatory continued friction among various participants - digitization. broadcasters, MSOs and LCOs. While the transition to mandatory digitization could be In our view, LCOs remain the weak link in the digitization relatively smooth in Mumbai/Delhi, Chennai/Kolkata process. Lack of adequate incentive for LCOs can hamper remain uncertain due to the slow progress at Arasu/ progress as customer ownership solely rests with them. political issues. On the advertising front, ad growth in first half was likely Industry structure is far from settled; 30 new MSOs have restricted to 7-8% YoY. Ad environment continues to be surfaced in Delhi over the past few months, thus disrupting challenging, with lower-than-expected activity considering large MSOs' plans. the upcoming festive season. Valuation and view: While digitization remains a 'game- are better placed to benefit from the digitization, given changer' event for TV broadcasting/distribution sector, expected improvement in subscription revenues, we believe valuations are largely full. This leaves little without any incremental investments. We have a margin of safety in case of any disappointments. We Neutral rating on Zee and Dish TV and a Buy rating on believe broadcasters (Zee Entertainment and Sun TV) Sun TV. Comparative valuations: Broadcasting Rating CMP Mcap EV P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) (INR) (USDb) (USDb) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E ZEEL Neutral 195 3.5 3.4 33.0 27.8 23.0 23.7 19.7 16.1 5.8 4.9 4.3 17.5 18.3 19.3 Sun TV Buy 352 2.6 2.5 20.0 19.3 17.5 9.7 9.2 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.1 26.3 24.7 25.1 Dish TV Neutral 83 1.7 1.8 NA NA 265.9 19.0 15.0 11.5 4.8 4.2 3.4 NA NA NA Report dated 10 Sep 2012 Presenting … Run-up To Digitization Digitization is a 'game-changing' event for the entire pay-TV value chain. In our note "All eyes on digitization; positive across value chain" dated September 10, we had presented key takeaways from three major parts of the value chain - Broadcaster (Zee Entertainment), DTH operator (Dish TV), and Content provider (Balaji Telefilms) - based on presentations and management interactions at Motilal Oswal 8th Annual Global Investor Conference, 2012. In the following note "Digitization: An LCO perspective" dated September 20 we focused on the local cable operator's perspective on digitization based on our interactions with Cable Operators Federation and several LCOs across metros. In this note, we present takeaways from Motilal Oswal Media Sector Conference attended by a diverse group of participants: Balaji Telefilms (leading content provider), Cable Operators Federation of India-COFI (LCO Association), Hinduja Ventures (National MSO), Network 18 group (leading TV broadcaster), OMD (communications agency with global operations) and Reliance Broadcast Network (national FM radio and niche TV network). Report dated 20 Sep 2012 Shobhit Khare ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5428 1 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Media Sector Conference 2012 Balaji Telefilms Key Takeaways Company Represented By: Mr Tanuj Garg, CEO Digitization to increase bargaining power: Balaji commands a premium over Motion Pictures other content providers given its established track record. Company’s revenue per hour of commissioned programming stands at INR2m. Digitization holds Balaji Telefilms Ltd occupies the potential to strengthen the bargaining power of stronger production houses a dominant space in the vis-à-vis broadcasters, as content would be the key differentiator in a highly television content creation space, with the No.1 show competitive digitized environment which will support transmission of 500 on Indian television to its channels. credit and all its shows Plan to increase shows to 7 from present 5: Balaji presently has five shows on being among the top 50 on air in the Hindi speaking markets - Pavitra Rishta (Zee TV), Bade Achee Lagte television. From a Ho (Sony TV), Parichay (Colors TV), Kya Hua Tera Vada (Sony TV) and Gumrah television content provider, Season II (Channel V). Company plans to air more shows, including a historical Balaji has diversified into on a top Hindi GEC. fields like motion pictures, internet and mobile Movie business capital employed to be within INR1.5b: Efforts in the movie applications. business would be a mix of development of concepts for in-house productions (e.g. Once Upon a time in Mumbai Again), co-productions (e.g. Shootout at Wadala, Lootera) and signing of key talent i.e. directors and writers. In the movie business, strategy is to remain involved in the creative process with in- house productions. The capital employed for this business has been fixed by the board at INR1.5b. Balaji Motion Pictures released Kya Super Kool Hain Hum in 2QFY13 on July 27, 2012 and is expected to release at least one more major film in 2012-13 and four films in 2013-14. Balaji Telefilms: Trend in commissioned programming hours and rates Valuation summary Year Net Sales PAT EPS EPS P/E P/BV RoE RoCE EV/ EV/ End (INR m) (INR m) (INR) Gr. (%) (X) (X) (%) (%) Sales EBITDA 3/09A 3,375 5 0.1 - 0.1 -1.3 3/10A 1,592 63 1.0 NM - - 1.7 -3.4 - - 3/11A 1,922 -11 -0.2 NM - - -0.3 -1.8 - - 3/12A 1,878 204 3.1 NM 17.6 0.9 5.2 -1.0 0.8 NM 10 October 2012 2 Media Sector Conference 2012 Cable Operators Federation of India (COFI) Key Takeaways Company Represented By: Ms Roop Sharma, President Digitization success in Chennai/Kolkata remains uncertain given the slow progress at Arasu/political issues: There are risks to achievement of optimum digitization level before the deadline in Chennai and Kolkata. While the state- COFI is a national level, run Arasu cable has been facing procedural delays, political issues remain at registered, non-profit the forefront in Kolkata given likely lack of support from the state government. organization, with its head office in New Delhi and LCO business model faces threat in digitized environment: MSOs and executive members spread broadcasters continue to enter fixed-fee deals even in a digitized environment, across India. It enjoys the while LCOs would be required to pay on per subscriber basis under DAS (Digital membership of more than Addressable System). Hence, the LCO business model is threatened as there 23,000 cable operators would be inadequate incentive for LCOs to run their business at a 35% revenue (>1,200 in Delhi). COFI share. This is not an ideal situation for the cable TV value chain as LCOs manage represents the interest of the critical last-mile. LCOs as a member of the government's task force on Questions on level of ‘under reporting’: The almost 50% downward revision in digitization. metro analog subscriber estimates by the government led to a much higher estimate of achieved seeding v/s earlier. However, this also indicates that the ‘under reporting’ by LCOs is substantially lower than generally perceived by industry participants. Significant change in govt est of analog cable homes (m)… Revised Estimate Earlier estimate % Change Mumbai 3.6 1.9 -48.3 Kolkata 3.6 2.0 -45.2 Delhi 4.2 2.5 -41.4 Chennai 2.0 0.5 -74.6 Total 13.4 6.8 -49.2 Source: Company, MOSL …results in much better achievement for Phase I digitization status (September 2012) House TV TV DTH Cable 20% Cable STB STB Holds penet- HHs subs TV pro- TV insta- seeding (m) ration (m) (m) HHs vision subs lled achieved (%) (m) for 2nd (m) (m) (%) TV Mumbai 2.7 85 2.3 0.7 1.6 0.3 1.9 1.8 95 Kolkata 3.3 61 2.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 2.0 1.3 67 Delhi 3.3 88 2.9 0.9 2.1 0.4 2.5 1.3 53 Chennai 1.1 95 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 49 Total 10.4 80 8.2 2.6 5.7 1.1 6.8 4.7 68 Source: Company, MOSL 10 October 2012 3 Media Sector Conference 2012 Hinduja Ventures Key Takeaways Company Represented By: Mr Ashok Mansukhani, Expect smooth transition in Delhi/Mumbai; possible hiccups in Chennai/ Director Kolkata: The company believes that the transition to mandatory digitization in Mr Subhashish Mazumdar, phase I is likely to be smooth in Delhi and Mumbai. However, it acknowledged SVP - Marketing & Customer that there could be hiccups in the Chennai and Kolkata markets. None of the Relations, IMCL national MSO has a presence in the Chennai market. MSOs adequately funded for phase I; might require funding for phase II and Hinduja Ventures is a part of the Hinduja group which beyond: National MSOs are largely interested in phase I and II (~25m subs) and provides a wide range of partly in phase III. While MSOs are well funded for phase I due to lower products and services in subscriber base and incremental nature of investments, external funding would over 50 countries across be required for phase II and beyond. three core areas: Global Industry structure far from settled: The cable industry is undergoing rapid investments, investment transformation led by mandatory digitization resulting in attempts by several banking and international trading.
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