66th Year -- No. 3641 Tuesday, December 29, 2020 www.mauritiustimes.com facebook.com/mauritius.times 18 Pages - ePaper MAURITIUS TIMES l “Cheers to a new year and another chance for us to get it right.” -- Oprah Winfrey Interview: Que sera - sera? Chetan Ramchurn The most perilous job has been futurology, making “After a dreadful first year, the predictions about the future. No model could anticipate what was happening, and it is going to be the same for 2021 worst, I fear, is yet to come” Dr R Neerunjun Gopee + See Page 3 * See Pages 7-8-9 Crystal-Gazing 2021 Coronavirus: how the pandemic could play out in 2021 By Adam Kleczkowski, University of Strathclyde + See Page 2-12 It is easy to look forward to 2021 and list the ills likely to befall the world. Realism dictates that we must do so for ignoring the problems will not make them go away. Photo - himalayanheroes.com By Anil Madan + See Page 4-18 Mauritius Times Tuesday, December 29, 2020 www.mauritiustimes.com Edit Page facebook.com/mauritius.times 2 The Conversation Rough Road Ahead In 2021 Coronavirus: how the pandemic he year that is about to end has been that is, ominously, imposing further financial lived under the deadly shadow of an burden on coming generations. Tinvisible, infiltrative enemy that has all On the political front, there’s the list of could play out in 2021 but decimated the world. It is a year that has questions that have not found answers in had one constant: uncertainties on every Parliament, but government may well be As vaccination begins to take effect, what we'll be able to do front that we can think of. Every indication is under an illusion if it thinks that they are that these will persist, but there is one thing going to go away. Far from the parliamentary will change – but the transformation will be slow that is certain as we enter 2021: the road vacation till March next year being one of accines for ahead is going to be very rough, and not only respite, it looks more set to become the lull Covid-19 are for Mauritius, though we may be hit the har- before the storm. The opposition will no now being der because of a number of vulnerabilities doubt sharpen itself, turn on the heat and dig V rolled out, but in for which we are to a large extent responsi- in when Parliament reopens. ble, such as the generous electoral goodies some parts of the that have been distributed or the white ele- To complicate matters, a pandora’s box world, this good phant type projects the country has engaged has been opened with the mysterious deaths news has been tem- in. that have taken place and that appear to be pered by the emer- linked, with suspicions of political involve- gence of new, We have to reckon with the difficulties ment being investigated by the legal team potentially more in- and obstacles associated with the rolling out that has taken the defense of the main case, fectious strains of of the vaccines that are in the pipeline allied that of Soopramanien Kistnen a political the virus. Exactly to the emergence of a new, more infectious agent of the MSM. The important issue of how the pandemic strain of the coronavirus, to which the recent motive for a possible foul play is being hin- will evolve has surges and further restrictions that have fol- ted at by the findings related to his account become more Photo - statnews.com lowed can be added – all these together keeping for electoral expenses in Consti- uncertain. have affected more severely and widely our tuency No. 8. As this angle is probed further will take many months. traditional export markets. These very same Certainly, the next three or so we may be in for more surprises that will add In the UK, GPs are rolling out vac- factors also point to a second fact that we more heat to the situation. months will be challenging, and a have to face: it will take longer rather than virus-free life is probably some way cines, and an average English GP shorter for these markets to be open once The landscape of the country that is off. Some things may not return to looks after nearly 9,000 people. again for usual let alone more business, thus emerging at the end of 2020 is one where how they were before. Assuming GPs work eight hours each implying even more difficulty for our even- political, economic and social incidents and day, need 10 minutes to vaccinate tual economic recovery. forces have played out under the threat of a Predicting exactly how things will someone, and each patient needs two pandemic to create a climate of apprehen- play out is difficult, but there are some shots, it would take them more than a As it is, the debt level of the country has sion that has gripped the population, despite things we can forecast with a relative year to see all their patients. Others, of already exceeded the upper limit of what is their seeming calm as they go about prepar- degree of confidence. With that in course, will help with the roll-out, but considered sustainable according to criteria ing to have some measure of relaxation mind, here’s what we can expect from this shows the size of the task. Delays set by recognized international institutions. during the new year festivities. Soon enough the coming year. will be unavoidable. Government has had to draw from the they will discover that these are short-lived Special Reserves of the Central Bank to as the fears and anxieties return when the What impact will the new Additionally, the two doses of the finance the stimulus package to big “dis- celebrations are over. strain have? Pfizer vaccine need to be given 21 tressed” business and the wage assistance days apart, with full immunity arriving scheme. En passant, it must be pointed out At the cost of repeating ourselves, it is There’s currently only limited infor- seven days after the second jab. that small businesses have not benefited worth reiterating that it is only our Constitu- mation about the new viral strain. Other vaccines – such as Astra- from any such largesse and have had to fight tion and our institutions which rigorously and Although yet to be confirmed, it Zeneca’s – require an even longer for their survival on their own. fearlessly uphold it that can salvage the appears to be more infectious, but not period between doses. It will take at country from losing its way and becoming to lead to more severe disease or be The question that arises based on the least a month (if not more) to see the unlivable. The integrity and patriotism of the able to evade vaccine-derived immu- preceding is how long will the government full effect in each vaccinated person. persons who are at the helm of our institu- nity. be able to continue with the wage assistance tions is the sine qua non criterion which will In countries that relaxed social dis- scheme, a second package having already reassure the citizens that they can lay their However, the variant suggests the tancing rules for Christmas, we might been advanced? Commonsense dictates heads on their pillows in serenity. We have virus is able to produce significant see a post-Christmas spike in cases. that there will be a limit, and then what will no choice but to look forward with this much mutations, and further mutations could In this case, vaccines are unlikely to be the solution? Further borrowing from tra- of hope for the sake of our country – that if change the course of the outbreak. change much initially – the disease ditional and non-traditional partners? That the political class is failing us, we have the Suppressing the pandemic quickly will have too much momentum in early means more debts, but equally and more guarantee that our institutions will be there to therefore has become an even more 2021. This will also probably be the importantly it also means that there is no free rein in the forces that are inimical to the safe- urgent task. case in the UK thanks to the new lunch: every loan or grant comes at a price, ty and security of citizens. strain of the virus, even though restric- one that is not disclosed to the public and Stricter restrictions on behaviour tions weren’t lifted for many. Public are likely to last well into the new year, awareness of the disease’s momen- and we may need further restrictions tum is needed, to avoid loss of confi- Mauritius Times to control the virus if it is indeed more dence in vaccination. Founder/Editor: Beekrumsing Ramlallah - Aug 1954-Sept 2000 infectious. Editor-in-chief: M. Ramlallah / Senior Editor: Dr RN Gopee How long until we see the This epaper has been produced with the assistance of vaccine’s effects? Adam Kleczkowski, Doojesh Ramlallah, Sultana Kurmally and Kersley Ramsamy Producing enough vaccine doses Prof of Mathematics and Statistics, Pearl House 4th Floor Room 406 - Sir Virgil Naz Street, Port Louis is a big task – production might hit a University of Strathclyde Tel: 5-29 29301 Tel/Fax: 212 1313 bottleneck. Even assuming we can [email protected] www.mauritiustimes.com facebook.com/mauritius.times make all we need, immunising people * Cont. on page 12 Op-Ed Mauritius Times Tuesday, December 29, 2020 3 I personally know of many families that have spent their weekends in this way.