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Demonetisation Was a Black Swan Event for the Indian Economy. Among Many Challenges

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Demonetisation Was a Black Swan Event for the Indian Economy. Among Many Challenges Ground View - Previous Issues GROUND VIEW Vol 6. Issue 1. 1 - 31 Jan 2019 MANAGING DIRECTOR & CEO MEDIA & CONSUMER Vineet Bhatnagar DISCRETIONARY Ankit Kedia EDITORIAL BOARD Manish Agarwalla METALS Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari Vikash Singh COVER / MAGAZINE DESIGN Chaitanya Modak MIDCAP www.inhousedesign.co.in Deepak Agarwal Akshay Mokashe EDITING Roshan Sony AUTOMOBILES Nitesh Sharma 1st November 2017 Issue 5 1st December 2017 Issue 6 RESEARCH Vipul Agrawal Banking & NBFCs Manish Agarwalla HEALTHCARE & Pradeep Agrawal SPECIALITY CHEMICALS Sujal Kumar Surya Patra AGRI INPUTS Mehul Sheth Deepak Chitroda Rishita Raja CONSUMER REAL ESTATE Vishal Gutka Vaibhav Agarwal Preeyam Tolia Dhaval Somaiya CEMENT STRATEGY Vaibhav Agarwal Anjali Verma Neeraj Chadawar ECONOMICS Anjali Verma Raag Haria TECHNICALS Subodh Gupta ENGINEERING & CAPITAL st st 1 April 2018 Issue 2 GOODS PRODUCTION MANAGER 1 February 2018 Issue 1 Jonas Bhutta Ganesh Deorukhkar Vikram Rawat EQUITY SALES & EVENTS IT SERVICES Rosie Ferns Vibhor Singhal Shyamal Dhruve SALES & DISTRIBUTION Bhavin Shah INFRASTRUCTURE Ashka Gulati Vibhor Singhal Deepika Bhandari Archan Vyas LOGISTICS CORPORATE & TRANSPORTATION COMMUNICATIONS Vikram Suryavanshi Zarine Damania FOR EDITORIAL QUERIES PhillipCapital (India) Private Ltd. No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400 013 st st [email protected] 1 September 2018 Issue 3 1 November 2018 Issue 4 2 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 3 Letter from the MD I am very pleased to present the sixth edition of our annual Ground View magazine to our readers, in which we have tried to explore emerging themes for 2019. The ongoing year will be a political one, with the general elections mid year; we hope for stability and policy continuity. The year that went by saw India transitioning – the country’s economic and political equations underwent tremendous transformations. Many game-changing policies were implemented over the last few years, including GST, DBT, demonetisation, E-way bill, and axle-load norms – 2018 was the year when the structural impact of these policies was felt. Was it positive or negative? These schemes were aimed at raising the share of the organized economy by tracking financial transactions in order to widen the tax base and revenues. Through them, the government initiated the process of blocking/disincentivising financial leakages, black money, and the parallel economy. Their scale and intensity will only increase in coming years. As these policies were bunched up, and implemented at a time when the Indian economy actually needed a stimulus due to the policy paralysis of the previous government, they dented business and employment. While the Indian economy remains one of the fastest growing in the world, its momentum suffered due to these structural changes. However, the way of doing business in India has undergone a reasonable change due to these policies. People are willing to switch to the organized structure of doing business, mainly because it has now become easier for the government to track and bring to book evaders and offenders. This has also increased compliance cost across businesses, along with additional stress from rising competition and changing technology. The result has been business consolidation – smaller businesses are struggling to survive and larger ones are gaining. The tax base is widening – its expansion should continue. In this issue named “STRUCTURAL CHANGES FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE” the PhillipCapital Research Team has tried to decipher ongoing changes in businesses and their economic impact. We travelled across India to bring our incisive analysis to you and we do hope you find it useful. Have a great year ahead! Best wishes Vineet Bhatnagar 2 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 3 CONTENTS 30. Automobiles: EV Bug Could Bite India Sooner By Nitesh Sharma & Vipul Agrawal 6. Structural Changes For A Brighter Future EVENTS By Anjali Verma 2019 36. Events 2019 By Neeraj Chadawar 11. Agri Inputs: DBT: A Re-Rating Card for Fertilisers By Deepak Chitroda 37. Real Estate: Paradigm Shift In Growth Drivers By Dhaval Somaiya 19. FMCG: General Trade: Down, But Not Out 44. Building Materials: By Vishal Gutka & Preeyam Tolia The Tower of Porcelain By Deepak Agarwal & Akshay Mokashe 4 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 5 CONTENTS 74. Media: OTT Services: At An Inflection Point By Ankit Kedia 53. Infrastructure: Turning A New Leaf – 77. Specialty Chemicals: Execution Outpacing Awards Indian Specialty Chemicals to Continue By Vibhor Singhal On Splendid Growth Path By Surya Patra & Mehul Sheth 81. Companies 2019: Operating Outperformers 59. Logistics: Changing Landscape By Vikram Suryavanshi 89. Events that Defined 2018 By Roshan Sony 104: INDIAN ECONOMY – Trend Indicators 69. Cement: Visible Regulation – Driven 106. PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA Changes; Pricing In Sharp Focus Coverage Universe: Valuation Summary By Vaibhav Agarwal 4 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 5 STRUCTURAL CHANGES: FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE By ANJALI VERMA Structural changes that have been taking place in India have made 2018 and its preceding years stand out. At the heart of these changes have been government policies. This was an interesting phase when the Indian government introduced various policies mainly to record or track financial transactions – the core objective was to strengthen the country’s tax base (organised economy) and bring in fiscal savings. Through these policies, the government has created a system that has minimised regulatory leakages. These policies may not have been revolutionary or implemented in the best way, but in the long-term, as loopholes keep being plugged, they should pay-off and serve their purpose. The ground reality is that over the last few years, the way of doing business in India has undergone a significant change due to government policies (eased considerably) and the paradigm shift underway from technological evolution. 6 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 7 6 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 7 A lot has been said about the timing, • Strengthening the tax base: GST, RERA, preparedness, and quality of these policy and demonetisation. changes, which caused various challenges. However, the fact is that they have shaken up • Reducing black money: Demonetisation, the previous methods of doing business in India. leading to a rise in digitization. While While new policies are facing resistance, the the objective of this move and whether government’s force and incentives have effected it was successful is murky, people’s mind- positive changes across businesses. Its ability to set towards digital transactions definitely track offenders and plug leaks will make these improved after demonetisation. The policies more successful in the long-term. The government quickly followed up with a ongoing (not-so-strong) economic growth trends regulatory overhaul of digital payment are also attributed to these structural changes, platforms – there has been a surge in mobile as they have taken place across sectors. It is also wallets in India. Demonetisation has also led noteworthy that the government rushed ahead to a swell in financial savings. with these policies when the Indian economy needed a push as it was in the midst of a • Better traceability: E-way bill, axle load political deadlock, weak business and consumer norms, DBT sentiments, and high inflation-interest rate environment. Some adjustment pain is still left – • Incentivising organised business (modern maybe a couple of years more. trade): Lower GST rates will push the The government, through policy framework, unorganised sections towards becoming has laboured towards strengthening India’s tax organised. structure and addressing the black money issue. Based on industrial feedback, the government These policies can be clubbed under the has been fairly amicable towards amending following heads: policy structures and compliance norms; various amendments have been brought under GST. 8 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 GROUND VIEW Annual 2019 9 Businesses that are unwilling to adapt, innovate, and re-invent will find survival difficult GST’s success has been tepid so far – collections have fallen badly short of the government’s expectations. However, policies have brought about other benefits such as rise in the number of tax payers (smaller businesses), reduced cash transactions, fear in the to expand, but it could have an adverse minds of offenders, trails of business transactions, and impact on employment generation. voluntary compliance. On-going structural changes will show results in time as processes are streamlined • In real estate, small-scale builders and mind-sets change. GST revenues should gradually have been hit by RERA, GST, and poor trend higher. liquidity. However, larger players are thriving. The GV team travelled across India, looking at various sectors and interacting with stakeholders • In FMCG, general trade (kirana shops) at all levels to gauge the impact of factors such as is under threat from modern trade due government policies on economic growth. These to GST, competition, and dependency interactions indicated that businesses are affected by on cash transactions (particularly after recent changes and are grappling to find their place demonetisation). – smaller businesses more, as they suffer due to rising compliance, taxes, technology advancements, lack of • Small businesses in consumer durables innovation,
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