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5. 2010 General Election: New Constituencies

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5. 2010 General Election: New Constituencies SN/SG/5280 RESEARCH PAPER 10/02 Revised constituency areas 5. 2010 General Election: new constituencies; seats and swing The new areas for this election are the result of the latest round of boundary changes, unusual in that it has been implemented in stages. Summary New constituency areas were introduced in Scotland for the 2005 General The 2010 General Election will use new constituency boundaries in Election, and these will be unchanged in 2010. New constituency areas England, Wales and Northern Ireland. In Scotland the boundaries will be will be used in England, Wales and Northern Ireland for the 2010 General the same as 2005. After the election there will be 650 seats in the House Election. of Commons, four more than the 646 now. In partisan terms, the new areas give a net benefit to the Conservatives. If the 2005 election had been fought on the new boundaries the Conservatives would have gained Constituencies by country around 12 additional seats and Labour seven fewer. Country 2005 2010 Assuming a uniform national swing at the next General Election, Labour England 529 533 loses its overall majority if there is a swing of 1.6% or more from Labour to Scotland 59 59 the Conservatives compared with the 2005 General Election. A 4.3% Wales 40 40 Labour to Conservative swing would produce a House of Commons with Northern Ireland 18 18 the Conservatives as the largest party; and a swing of 6.9% would give the Conservatives an overall majority. A Labour to Conservative swing of United Kingdom 646 650 anything between 1.6% and 6.9% would result in a hung parliament, where no single party has more than half the seats. Overall, England will have four additional seats, while the number in Electoral swing Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will remain the same as now. The The swing from Party A to Party B is the average of the percentage modest increase in the number of constituencies in England disguises point fall in Party A’s share of the vote and the percentage point rise in changes in seat numbers in different parts of the country. In England, 11 Party B’s – this conventional definition for two-party swing is used shire counties each gain a seat, while each of the former Metropolitan throughout this note. areas and Greater London lose a seat. This is largely a reflection of population movement from urban to suburban and rural areas. A 1% swing from one party to another involves adding 1% point of votes to one party and subtracting 1% point of votes from the other. xiii SN/SG/5280 RESEARCH PAPER 10/02 Index of change – Hampstead and Kilburn, example Extent of change The new constituency of Hampstead and Kilburn has the former In 2005, the reduction of seats in Scotland resulted in significant changes constituency of Hampstead and Highgate as its base. 48,496 electors in almost all seats – around half of electors there were “moved” from, or from an electorate of 64,616 in Hampstead and Highgate are into a new area. In 2010, the changes in England, Wales and Northern transferred to Hampstead and Kilburn. This leaves 16,120 who are Ireland are less radical. In 79 of these constituencies there is no transferred to a different constituency. A further 26,077 electors come geographic change at all (although in some cases constituency names from the old Brent East and South constituencies. The resultant may change). And in more than half of constituencies (331, equivalent to electorate for Hampstead and Kilburn is 74,573 (48,496 + 26,077) 56%) the number leaving their old constituency or being added to the new one as a proportion of the electorate is 10% or less. This index of change The index of change for the new area is 65.3%. is more than 50% in just 77 (13%) of constituencies in England, Wales and (16,120 + 26,077) / 64,616 = 65.3 Northern Ireland. Extent of change in constituency boundaries converging around the country averages, the “electoral quota”. This reduces some of the variation around the averages for the old Index of change Northern constituency electorates. In England, 399 of the former constituencies %(a) England Wales Ireland E W & NI were within +10% of the quota, and 14 were more than +20% of the quota. 05518679 For the new constituencies, 474 are within +10% of the quota and only 0-10 228 18 6 252 one (the Isle of Wight) is more than 20% beyond it. 10-25 105 1 4 110 25-50 70 1 2 73 50+ 75 2 0 77 Political impact of the new areas All 533 40 18 591 Following the 2005 Election, Labour’s 355 MPs gave it 64 more seats than (a) The sum of electors leaving and joining the base constituency as a percentage of all the other parties combined (including the Speaker). Had the 2005 the electorate of that constituency election been fought on the new boundaries Labour would have won 349 of the 650 seats.1 This would have given them 48 more seats than all the Size of constituency electorates other parties combined. The Conservatives won 198 seats in 2005, while on the new boundaries could have expected to have won 210, 12 more; One of the aims of the boundary changes is to reduce disparities in size Labour could have won seven fewer seats; and Plaid Cymru would have between constituencies in each country in the UK. In each country the changes have resulted in the electorates in individual constituencies 1 Based on Rallings & Thrasher (2007) xiv SN/SG/5280 RESEARCH PAPER 10/02 two seats instead of three. The number of Liberal Democrat seats would Change in seats and Labour to Conservative swing be unchanged as individual gains and losses offset each other. To produce: Seats % swing Labour majority of 20 -14 1.0 House of Commons 2005 election Labour loss of overall majority -24 1.6 New boundaries (notional results) Conservatives as largest party 72 4.3 Seats Conservative overall majority 116 6.9 Labour 349 Conservative majority of 20 125 7.6 Conservative 209 Liberal Democrat 62 Note: assumes uniform national swing Plaid Cymru 2 SNP 6 Swing in previous General Elections N Ireland 18 Other 4 The 1979 Conservative election victory was the result of a 5.3% point Lab- All 650 Con swing; in 1997, there was a Con-Lab swing of 10.2% points. With these two exceptions, swing between the two main parties at General Source: Rallings & Thrasher (2007) Elections has not exceeded 5% points since 1950. For the Conservatives to win an overall majority requires a uniform national swing of 6.9%. This The gain in seats by the Conservatives as a result of the boundary would be higher than any election since 1950, except 1997. changes affects the swing2 that party requires for there to be a change in the governing party. In 2005, a swing of 2.0% from Labour to the Conservatives would have deprived it of its overall majority. On the basis General Election swings: Labour to Conservative Great Britain, percentage points of the new constituencies a Labour-Conservative swing of 1.6% would be sufficient. The Conservatives would become the largest party on a 4.3% 8 6 +4.9 +5.3 swing and would have an overall House of Commons majority with a swing +4.1 4 +2.9 +2.8 +3.1 +1.8 +1.8 from Labour of 6.9% or more. 2 +1.1 +1.2 0 -2 -0.8 -2.2 -1.7 -2.1 -4 -3.1 -6 -8 -10 -12 -10.2 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 1974 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 (F) (O) 2 The swing from Party A to Party B is the average of the percentage point fall in Party A’s The swing from the National Government to Labour in 1945 was 12.0%, share of the vote and the percentage point rise in Party B’s – this conventional definition for although it should be borne in mind that the circumstances in 1945 were two-party swing is used throughout this note. xv SN/SG/5280 RESEARCH PAPER 10/02 unusual, not least that there had not been an election since 1935 and that Partly because Labour seats tend to be those with smaller electorates and National Labour candidates contributed 1.6 percentage points to the lower turnout than Conservative ones, and also because the Conservative National total in 1935. vote is concentrated in certain areas, it is possible in some cases for Labour to retain an overall majority of seats even if it has a lower share of the national vote (as in February 1974). Projections of seats by Party for 2010 There are a number of ways in which national vote shares can be translated into seats won by individual parties. The table overleaf is based The UK’s first past the post electoral system means that national party on work of Rallings and Thrasher at Plymouth University. It suggests that vote shares are not directly translated into representation in the House of Conservatives could require a 10% point lead in the popular vote over Commons. However, it is possible to apply changes in the national vote Labour to have an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons. share since 2005 to individual constituency results to project the possible Labour, on the other hand, could achieve an overall majority where the composition of the House for each party.
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