SADCC Country Studies, Part I ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA 3
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
SADCC COUNTRY STUDIES PART I
Edited by Phi1 O'Keefe and Barry Munslow
Published by
THE BEIJER INSTITUTE THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish OF AFRICAN STUDIES Academy of Sciences Uppsala , Sweden Stockholm, Sweden The series "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa" is pub- lished jointly by the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Insti- tute of African Studies, with financial support from the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA). This book, together with a series of companion volumes reports on a study of Energy and Development in the SADCC Countries jointly undertaken by the SADCC Energy Sector and the various member states of SADCC, in collabor- ation with the Beijer Institute.
ISSN 0281-8515 ISBN 91-7106-229-7
@ The Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies 1984 Printed in Sweden by Bohuslaningens AB, Uddevalla 1984 FOREWORD
This Volume contains the first part of a series of nine energy country studies, prepared by the Beijer Institute as background material for the SADCC Regional Energy Seminar in Harare, December 1982. I would like to thank the group of authors most warmly for their contributions. Their work would not have been possible without the kind cooperation of many Ministries and authorities concerned with energy in the nine SADCC countries. I am also pleased to thank Professor Phi1 O'Keefe and Dr Barry Munslow for editing this Volume and my Deputy Director, Dr Lars Kristoferson, for his involvement in the preparatory work needed throughout the SADCC Energy Project. Final l y, I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of SIDA for the field work, the Seminar and the publication of this Volume.
Gordon T. Goodman
September 1984
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
SADCC COUNTRY STUDIES PART I
CONTENTS
FOREWORD ii i
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF FIGURES viii
INTRODUCTION Phi1 O'Keefe and Barry Munslow
1. ANGOLA M.R. Bhagavan
2. BOTSWANA Ben Wisner
3. LESOTHO Alan Frolich
4. MALAWI Richard Scobey
INDEX 187 - vi -
TABLES
Page
Main Commodities Traded ...... Direction Of Trade ...... Summary Of Household Energy Consumption And Demand ...... Total Energy Consumption And Demand . Summary Of Consumpti on, Excl uding Households ...... Production And Consumption Of Petroleum ...... Petroleum Products In Agriculture . . Petroleum Products In Industry . . . Petroleum Products In Transport . . . Agricultural Land ...... Wood Supply To Industry ...... Wood Supply POtenti a1 ...... Potential Energy Resources . . . . . Electricity Generation And Consumption ...... Other Systems ...... Hydroelectric Power ...... Production And Export Of Crude Petroleum...... Share Of Oil Fields In Production . . Production Export And Import Of Refined Petroleum ......
Al. 1 Basic Data On Angola ...... A1.2 Electricity Consumption By Sector . . A1.3 Electricity Consumption By Manufacturing Sector ...... A1.4 Electricity Capacity By Plant Type . Al. 5 Price Of Refined Petroleum Products .
Botswana
2.1 Botswana Economic Background . . . . 2.2 Urban Month1y Expenditure Per Household ...... vii .
Women In Agriculture ...... Major Industrial Users ...... End-u se Requirements ...... Final Consumption By Sector ..... Final Consumption By Fuel ...... Final Consumption ...... Primary Resource Requirement .... Natural Wood Biomass Supply ..... Coal Fields In Botswana ...... Refined Petroleum Imports ...... Comparisons Of Supply Statistics . . Electricity Generation ...... Relative Rail Costs ......
Lesotho
Demographic Summary Of Lesotho ... 139 Selected Economic Indicators .... 142 GDP By Source At Current And Constant Cost ...... 143 Growth Rates By Economic Activity . . 144 Per Capita GDP and GNP ...... 145 Average Real Growth Rate For Per Capita GDP ...... 145 Final Consumption Of Fuel By Sector . 149 "1980" Energy Bal ance ...... 150 Rural Household Consumption ..... 154 Urban Household Consumption ..... 155 Land Capability ...... 157 Coal Consumption ...... 162 Electricity Sales ...... 164 Potenti a1 Small Hydro Electric Projects ...... 167 . viii .
FIGURES
.Page
Natural Regions Of Angola ...... Angol an Vegetation ...... Angol an Rai nf a1 l ...... Angolan Electricity Distribution . . Angolan Oil Concessions ...... Republ i c Of Botswana ...... Botswana Rainfall ...... Vegetation In Botswana ...... Coal fie1ds In Botswana ...... Coal Transport ...... Electricity Supply And Distribution . Botswana's Energy Options ...... INTRODUCTION
Energy provision is vital to every development effort; without it there can be no increased industrial or agricultural production, and no improvement in the basic living conditions of the population. An awareness of the importance of studying energy as a vital part of the development process emerged under the dual impetus of the oil price rises of the early 1970s and the growing shortage being experienced of traditional fuels upon which rural producers have relied in many areas. Both concerns provide the essential themes running through this work. These two volumes furnish an in-depth analysis and overview of each of the nine countries which together comprise the Southern African Development Coordination Conference. The research was carried out under the auspices of the Bei jer Institute of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences at the request of the SAOCC countries in 1982.
These country case studies provided the background data for the summary volume being pub1 ished in parallel entitled SADCC: Energy and Development to the Year 2000, which draws together all of the individual countrydata to produce an aggregate regional energy picture and makes projections to the year 2000. Whilst the country case studies are valuable in their own right, seeking as they do to provide a breakdown of energy use in each economy, the reader interested in the regional picture is referred to the accompanying summary volume.(l)
What unifies the approach of the authors of these individual country studies is a common methodology of establishing national energy balances from a demand perspective. This emphasis on an end-use approach to energy is an important one.
National energy accounts are frequently built on a highly aggregated basis. They are avail able for major sources of commerci a1 fuel S, hydrocarbons and electricity, but the orientation is towards supply issues. Since the major institutions for p1 anning, admini stration, production and distribution have been establi shed for many years and are critically focused on supply issues, this situation is not unexpected. If, however, data from these institutions is utilised to build energy accounts, two major problems emerge. First, it is impossible to assess the demand for commercial fuels by end-use and, consequently, it is impossible to design conservation initiatives. Second1 y, because major institutions on1 y deal with commerci a1 fuel S, the traditional sector which domi nates the energy economies of Africa is left unrecorded. In order to avoid the obvious problems associated with conventional supply analysis, each researcher was requested to adopt a demand approach to the problem of energy accounting. This demand approach clearly demonstrated the importance of traditional energy consumption in the overall energy balance. In particular, the important sector of rural household demand dominates the energy accounts, frequent1y dwarfing the total commercial sector. The emphasis on rural household demand serves three useful functions, name1y:
1. It allows projections of future energy consumption to be projected from a demographic base of household formation rather than plucking some arbitrary economic indicator out of context:
2. It focuses attention on the biological resources of a country which, given the importance of agriculture to the development strategy of SADCC member states, is the crucial area for development initiatives:
3. It places appropriate attention on the critical role of women in obtaining fuel, and other basic needs, in maintaining the production and reproduction activities of peasant households.
As such, it is a complementary analysis that must be placed a1 ongside supply data.
A fourth volume has also emerqed out of the research. (2) This was produced by a group working Gnder Professor Richard piet, and is entitled Manufacturing Industry and Economic Devel opment in the SADCC Countries.
Phi1 0'Keefe and Barry Munslow
REFERENCES
1. C. Simoes (Ed), SADCC: Energy and Development to the Year 2000, in Energy, Environment and Development in Africa Vo1.2. SADCC Energy Sector, in collaboration with the Beijer Inst- itute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1984.
2. R. Peet, Manufacturing Industry and Economic Development in the SADCC Countries, in Energy, Environment and Development in Africa Vol.5. SADCC Energy Sector, in collaboration with the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1984. REFERENCES --p
1. C. Simoes (Ed), SADCC: Energy and Development to the Year 2000, in Energy, Environment and Development inmca Vo1.2. mCEnergy Sector, in collaboration with the Beijer Inst- itute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1984.
2. R. Peet, Manufacturing Industry and Economic Development in the SADCC Countries, in Energy, Environment and Development in Africa Vo1.5. SADCC Energy Sector, in collaboration with the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1984.
CHAPTER 1
ANGOLA
b Y
M. R. BHAGAVAN
AN OUTLINE OF THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ANGOLA.
Angola became independent in November 1975, when the Movimento Popul ar para a Libertacao de Angola (MPLA) procl aimed the People's Republic of Angola. The First War of Liberation, fought against the Portuguese colonial regime from 1961 to 1975, had hardly ended, when MPLA was forced to fight a Second War of Liberation, this time against the invading South African and Zairran troops and their allies within the UNITA (National Union for the Total Independence of Angola) and FNLA (National Front for the Liberation of Angola). A1 though the enemy troops were beaten back successfully by April 1976, the war has continued unabated in the southern provinces which border on Namibia, where the South African troops have invaded and occupied a sizeable chunk of territory. Thus, from the moment of independence in 1975 to this day, i.e. for eight years, the government of Angola has had to divert large amounts of financial and technical resources, as we1 l as large numbers of skilled technical and other cadres to counter the ongoing South African aggression. In 1976, the retreating South African, Zairean, UNITA and FNLA troops p1 undered industri a1 equipment, diesel electricity generators, tractors, boats and trucks, and destroyed what they could not take away. They blew up bridges and roads. Although the roads and bridges have now been rebuilt, the cumul ative effect of the ongoing war on the economy has been disastrous. The commercial agricultural production and industrial production are today only 30 to 50 per cent of the pre-independence 1973 levels. (1973 is regarded as historically the best year so far from the point of view of production. The party and the government regard the 1973 levels as the targets to achieve in the reconstruction of the economy). By 1974, the number of Portuguese settlers had risen to 400,000. They had monopolized all the skilled work in the country, from the lowest to the highest level, in every socio-economic sector. Angolans were confined to semi-subsistence agriculture, contract and forced labour on cash crop plantations at starvation wages, and unskilled manual labour in industry, transport and service sectors. Very few were allowed to obtain secondary school education. A small number of educated urban Angol ans were a1 lowed into clerical and technical jobs. Following independence, within a year(1975-76), almost all the Portuguese settlers left the country. This sudden mass exodus of nearly 400,000 skilled people left the monetized and organised sectors of the Angolan economy in a totally crippled state. Angolans, who until then had been prevented by the colonial regime from acquiring skills, had to fill this huge vacuum as well as they could, and learn essential skills speedily on-the-job. The tremendous shortage of skilled manpower is the single most critical factor holding back the recovery of the economy. The gap has been partly filled by recruiting foreign technicians and experts (called "cooperantes") from a large number of countries in Europe, North and South America, and Asia. A small section of the Portuguese settler population had owned and operated large farms, small and medium sized manufacturing and construction industries, and transport and service sector establishments. These were abandoned by them as they fled the country. They took with them considerable quantities of industrial and transport equipment and in many instances they deli berate1y sabotaged the equipment they had to leave behind. As production had come to a halt in the abandoned farms and industrial units, and no Angol an entrepreneurial class was in place to take over and run them, the State had little choice but to nationalize them. In this fashion, about 85 per cent of all industrial units, and almost all of the 6400 large farms and plantations came to be State-owned, under the Law on State Intervention passed in March 1976. This measure affected on1 y the establ ishments abandoned by the fleeing Portuguese. Large industries, including manufacturing and mining, which belonged to non-Portuguese foreign capital were not nationalized. All banking, insurance, foreign trade and wholesale internal trade were also nationalized, and so were all mineral and forest resources, and electricity generating and distributing companies, and commerci a1 transport. In December 1978, the late President 0r.Aghostino Neto said that the government was not opposed to the private ownership of small enterprizes by Angol ans. Small domestic private capital can operate on its own today in Angola. Foreign capital has been made very welcome. The July 1979 Law on Foreign Investment offers extreme1y attractive terms to foreign investors: no nationalization for 10 to 15 years, but if and when nationalisation is proposed, handsome compensation will be paid, including the interest accruing, in the foreign currency in which the investment was made; repatriation of profits up to 25 per cent of the capital invested; access to domestic Angol an credit; exemptions from, and a reduction of, various taxes and export and import duties. Despite the encouragement being shown to small private domestic capital, almost no private domestic enterprises have been established. The principal reasons offered for this lack of interest are that there are no consumer goods on which to spend the money being made, and no possibility for private enterprises and individual S to import consumer durables, construction materials, etc. The severe shortage of essential consumer goods has led to three serious problems. First, the purchasing power of the Kwanza is extremely poor on the open market. For instance, essential foods which are rationed in the People's Shops where they are sold at low, fixed and controlled prices, are sold on the open market in the towns at anything between 100 to 400 times the official controlled price. Second, the small amounts of food the peasantry wants to sell is not given to the State for sale in the People's Shops, but goes to the open market where it fetche5 astronomical prices. Third, the lack of consumer goods means that the peasants have no incentive to produce more for sale in the urban markets. In effect, the agricultural production by the semi-subsistence peasantry has become de-linked from the urban market economy. The State is finding it hard to re-establish this link. Other factors that have contributed to this de-linking of peasant production from the rest of the economy are the severe disruptions that continue in the fertile areas of the central highlands and the breakdown of commercial transport between the countryside and the town as a result of mil itary activity and securi ty problems. In 1982, industrial production was only 30 to 50 per cent of the 1973 levels, in particular in the food processing and essential consumer goods branches. There are several reasons for this: the lack of technicians, skilled workers, and managers, which contributes to machinery breakdowns and the interruption of production; lack of spare parts; lack of raw materials and intermediate goods; and absenteeism by the workforce because they have to spend long hours each day queuing in order to purchase essential foods in the People's Shops. Out of the 6400 large farms and plantations abandoned by the Portuguese settlers, and taken over by the State, only a few hundred are working. As a result, the production of export cash crops l ike coffee, cotton, sugarcane, tobacco, sisal, palm kernel S, etc. has fa1len drastically. The production in 1981 of coffee, the principal export crop and formerly the third most important export earner, was down to 10 per cent of the 1973 figure. The reasons for the decline are: once again, a lack of managers and technicians; the lack of imported inputs like fertilizers and agricultural chemicals; and, most crucially, the withdrawal by peasants of their wage labour in farms and plantations as the colonial yoke of forced labour was lifted and they went back to their own subsistence farming. The government is supplying the urban population almost entirely through imports. In 1981 and 1982, imports of essential foods and consumer goods took up nearly 40 per cent of the total export revenue. The first congress of the MPLA was held in December 1977. On that occasion, the MPLA was transformed into a vanguard Worker's Party (MPLA-Partido do Trabalho), and it was declared to be an instrument with the help of which the working classes would be able to build a socialist society. Its philosophy is Marxism-Leninism. It was recognised that the transition to socialism is a long historical process, and that the present phase is one of national reconstruction, the building of a People's Democracy and laying the social, material and technical basis for socjal ism. The monetized and organised parts of the economy are centrally planned and directed. The overall guidelines and directives for planning the economy are issued by the Party, which also has the final say in the plans that are approved for implementation. The Ministry of Planning is in charge of the technical work of formulating the yearly plans and the medium and long term plans. Each operational (i.e. functional ) ministry, such as agriculture, industry, etc., has a planning office (Gabinete do Plano), which is given the task of drafting the details of the sectorial plans. These draft sector plans are scrutinised and amended first by the Ministry of Planning and finally by the Party. At its first extraordinary congress held in December 1980, the Party pub1 ished detailed guide1ines for, and physical targets to be achieved in, various socio-economic sectors during the five year period of 1981-85. However, the development plan for 1982 and the medium term development plan have not yet been published, although an Emergency Plan was produced at the beginning of 1983. The primary source of revenue for the State is from the sale of crude petroleum. In 1979, about 72 per cent of the export income came from the export of crude oil and refined petroleum products. Coffee came next at 16 per cent and diamonds third at 10 per cent. Cement, sisal and fishmeal made up the remaining 2 per cent. The total value of exports in 1979 was US $1,950 mill ion, and the total value of imports US $1,350 million. The main imports were machinery (39%), food-stuffs (26%), raw materials (11%) and textiles and footwear (8%). Tables 1.1 and 1.2 show the structure and direction of foreign trade for the years 1978 and 79 (the latest year for which statistics have been published). By 1981, oil was accounting for 78 per cent of exports. Both output and prices fell in 1981. It is estimated that the value of oil exports in 1981 was US $1400 million, substantially below the expected US $1700 million. The State established its own oil company SONANGOL in 1976 (Sociedade Angol ana de Combustives ) . Under the Petroleum Law enacted by the government in February 1978, foreign oil companies have entered into participation ventures with SONANGOL, or received concessions on production sharing terms. Three foreign oil companies are in production as of 1982: Gulf (the largest producer), Petrangol and Texas. Numerous other foreign companies have been given prospecting and exploration concessions. Diamonds are mined in the north-eastern province of Luanda by the Companhia de Diamantes de Angola (DIAMANG). The Angolan State owns 77.2 per cent of the shares, and most of the rest are held by the Belgian Socigtg Ggnerale. The State share is held by a parastatal, the Empresa Nacional de Diamantes de Angola (ENDIAMA). A foreign firm called "Mining and Technical Services" advises DIAMANG on the technical management of the mines. Angola's rough diamonds are sold through the Diamond Corporation TABLE 1. I
Main Commgdi ties Traded
Oi 'I 16,507 Foodstuffs 5,383 y-products 1,103 Textiles & Footwear 1,447 2 6,732 Machinery 3,940 ids 2,997 Consumer goods 2,209 t 90 Cemi cal s 563 82 Raw materials 4,099 ?a1 60 Tool s 478 Medical goods 1,040
TABLE 1.2
Direction of Trade
total )
Ls from: 1979 1980 Exports to: 1979 1980
-n Europe 56.4 51.6 North America 21.4 31.8 ~n (CMEA) 15.7 16.9 Latin America 35.1 28.9 Ameri ca 9.8 10.8 Western Europe 28.5 22.2 America 5.6 7. 2. Comecon (CMEA) 6.9 6.3 1 3.0 2.2 Africa 3.4 4.1 9.5 11.4 Others 4.7 6.7 in London. Until 1975-76, Angola was the fourth largest producer of diamonds in the world. In 1974 its production was 2.4 million carats. It had declined sharply from that level to about 1.5 million carats in 1980. Angola is very we1 l-endowed with natural resources. I-t has deposits and occurences of 34 minerals, of which 14 are in the strategic category. To give some examples: iron ore, coal, phosphates, uranium, ti tanium, copper, go1 d, manganese, bauxite, mica, nickel, cobalt, chrome, vanadium, beryl1ium, wolfram, tin, lead, limestone, asphalt rock, rare earth and radioactive elements. Its natural forests cover 61 million hectares (i.e. about half the land area), and its medium and high potential agricultural land comprise 54 million hectares. Its hydro-electric and irrigation potential is immense. Since independence Angola has made great strides in primary education. In 1973, there were about 340,000 Angolan children in primary schools. By 1980, their number had risen toabout 2,400,000 in the first four classes of primary schooling. In the adult literacy campaign, about 700,000 have been taught reading and writing. Health care is free. Rents on accommodation are controlled and are very low. Similarly, the prices of essential foods, consumer goods and conventional fuels for household use are controlled and kept low, so that they are within reach of the majority of the urban population.
ESTIMATING THE GROWTH OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
The energy consumed can be divided into two broad groups: consumption by households and by the four,socio-economic sectors of agriculture, industry, services and transport. In the next two sections, we provide the breakdown of figures for the various forms of energy consumed by these two broad groups, for the year 1980, which is the base year for this study. In addition to this, however, we would like to give estimates of energy requirements to the year 1990, so that one has an idea of what to plan for. In discussing energy requirement, one is dealing with several concepts: "actual consumption" in a given year; "actual demand" which may be more than, or less than, the available supply; "potential demand" at a future date; and the "need" for energy. The first of these concepts "actual consumption" is self-evident. The second one, "actual demand", is the demand created by the actual purchasing power of the households and the socio-economic sectors. "Potential demand" is the demand that is created by the purchasing power at a future date. The last concept "need" is much wider than "demand" and "consumption". It refers to the amount required by the households to meet essential needs and by the socio-economic sectors to fulfill essential social targets. "Need" thus includes "demand" and "consumption", but is in general bigger than both in an underdeveloped economy where the mass of the popul ation still have only a subsistence level in their material standards of living. In order to compute "demand" and "need" defined as above, one has to have a great deal of detailed knowledge about the individual and soci a1 consumptions that constitute an essential minimum for the people, about the energy content of materials that go into production and distribution, and the purchasing power of various social classes and socio-economic sectors. Such detailed knowledge of the political economy is beyond the scope of this study. So we have to rest content with only two concepts: "actual consumption" and "consumption at a future date". In conformity with the usual imprecise usage, we will henceforth give "the consumption at a future date" the label "potential demand". It is important to bear in mind that "potential demand" as used here, and in most of the literature, is not calculated on the basis of purchasing power, but as a projection into the future of actual consumption in any given year. No official figures are available for planned or projected rates of growth in energy consumption for the economy as a whole, or for different sectors of the economy. Similarly, for the rates of growth in the production of agricultural products, industrial goods and essential services. In December 1980, the MPLA-Workers' Party, he1 d its first extraordinary congress. At that congress, it pub1 ished detailed guidel ines for social and economic development during the period 1981-1985 (Orientacoes Fundamentais para o Desenvolvimento Economico-Soci a1 de Republ ica Popular de Angola, Periodo de 1981-1985). These guidel ines contain detailed physical targets for many industri a1 and agricul tural products, but not for different fuels. But from these physical targets for various individual products to be achieved between 1981 and 1985, it is not possible to extract growth rates for energy, or for the aggregate productive sectors l ike industry, agricul ture, etc. We assume that the rates of growth of energy consumption by urban and rural households are the same as the rates of growth of urban and rural population, respective1y. According to the estimat,es of the National Directorate of Physical P1 anning, urban population is now growing by about 5 per cent per annum and rural population by 2 per cent per annum. These then, are the rates of growth we use for estimating the potential demand for energy by urban households and rural households in 1990, based on the actual consumption figures in 1980. At the first congress of MPLA held in December 1977, the party affirmed that the aim was to reach, in the shortest possible time, the 1973 production levels in the most decisive and important sectors for the life of the people. This task has proved more difficult than was anticipated, primarily because of the disruptions caused by the continued agression against, and irlvasion of, Angola by South Africa. With the sole exception of petroleum exploitation, which had already recovered to 1973 levels by 1977, the rest of the productive sectors are still far behind that target as of 1982. Industrial production on average, in 1981, was only one-third of the 1973 figure, expressed in physical units. Many important branches in the sectors of food processing and light industry showed negative growth rates in 1981, of the order of -10 to -40 per cent per annum, i.e. production in 1981 was substantially lower than that in 1980. One cannot go by the planned targets either to find a "realistic" growth rate, because the targets set by the development plan for 1981 were in fact less than the actual production figures for the year before, viz. 1980, by margins ranging from 4 to 28 per cent, depending upon the industrial branch. Let us now turn to agriculture. The principal users of conventional commerci a1 fuel S (electricity, refined petroleum, etc. ) in agriculture, are the large farms, most of which are today owned and operated by the state. They concentrate on producing cash crops like coffee, cotton, sugarcane, tobacco and sisal, as we1 l as one or two staple food grains l i ke maize and wheat. The most importar~tcash crop of all, coffee, has been very badly hit by events after 1976. Almost all of the large coffee plantations were abandoned by their former Portuguese owners who left the country. The wage workers on the plantations were from the central plateau of Huambo and Bie, who used to migrate every year from their homes to the coffee plantations in the northern provinces, when labour was in demand during the peak season, and return home to cultivate their own lands during the off-season for coffee. The war conditions have made it extremely risky for these workers to migrate back and forth every year as they used to. So they have remained in their central highland home areas. This drastic and sudden withdrawal of labour could not be compensated by recruiting workers from among the peasants of the northern provinces, because they prefer to work on their own farms to working on coffee p1 antations. The cumul ative effect is that in 1981 the coffee production was only 10% of the 1973 figure. This situation is unlikely to improve in the near future. The other cash crops in which the large farms specialize such as cotton, sugarcane and sisal are not doing any better. They, and staple food grains like maize, rice and wheat, all showed negative growth rates in 1981 ranging from -20 to -60 per cent. (These refer only to commercial production. No data is available on the production by subsistence peasants, most of which does not come on to the controlled price market). Further, the targets achieved in 1981 were only about 25 per cent of the p1 anned targets for staple foods. Under these circunistances it is not possible to extract figures for the rates of growth of energy consumption from the growth rates in the productive sectors of the economy. We will take an indirect, and less satisfactory, route through the rate of growth of the total GDP. In 1973, the total GDP was 55,900 million Kwanzas (calculated on the basis of 1 escudo = 1 Kwanza). By 1980, it had not yet recovered to this figure, but was only 30,900 million Kwanzas at 1973 prices. In order to reach the 1973 figures by the year 1985, or by the year 1990, the 1980 GDP has to grow at a real rate of 12.6 per cent per annum, or 6.1 per cent per annum, respectively. A sustained real growth rate of 12.6 per cent is highly unrealistic. So the possibility of reaching the 1973 GDP figure by 1985 can be discounted. That leaves us with the rate for 1990. But Angola clearly wants to reach the 1973 figures before 1990. So we pick a value for the real rate of growth of the total GDP between 12.6 and 6.1 per cent, say about 10 per cent per annum, in the belief that Angola is going to fully mobilize all productive forces in the coming years. We assume that the energy consumption in the sectors of industry, commercial agriculture, services, public transport and private motoring will grow at the same real rate as the total GDP, i.e. 10 per cent per annum, between 1980 and 1990. We do not concern ourselves with semi-subsistence and pure-subsistence agricultures, as they hardly use any conventional commercial
fuels, relying almost entirely ' on human and animal physical energy.
HOUSEHOLD DEMAND
Table 1.3 provides a summary of rural and urban household energy consumption and demand.
Urban Demand.
The population of Angola in 1980 was estimated to be about 7.15 million, growing at the rate of about 2.4 per cent per annum. In some parts of the country, the Second War of Liberation caused severe disruptions in agriculture, transport and social infrastructure, as well as creating a sense of physical insecurity among the rural population. This led to a greater than usual rate of influx of people from the rural to the urban areas. The increase was most dramatic in the case of the capital city Luanda, whose population trebled from 450,000 in 1974 to 1.2 million in 1982. A large part of those who came to Luanda were refugees and exiles returning from Zaire. By 1980, the urban areas were accommodating about 20 per cent of the total population. Luanda is the largest city, containing more than 80 per cent of the entire urban population of Angola. Huarnbo comes next, far behind in size, followed by Lobito, Benguela and Lubango. The pattern of urban household demand for energy would be well covered by looking at the situation at the two ends of this size spectrum, i.e. Luanda and Lubango, both of which were studied at first hand. h n C -0 C S -J m a E CL aJ 3 n CL
7 5 .v* S "l aJu U C-'? c 0 0 5 a=+ E aJ z W 0 m< 0 m 3m m om u 4 I3 t 5 t .-0 C-' a S E 0 3 .c- m -A c Q 5 m 0 E m . U 3 3 3 V) CL C W2 0 --l L U m m a~ U 4: S 7 7 k- W m 0 3 L U * a F- U V) 0 4 3 r OZ aJ 0I5 V) m m 3 0 2 2% I m N 4- 5 5 0 cc%. h oom aJ L W- m V)lnL n E .- .r 3 .r mwm m E, m 5 .r .r m nn4- - D wwo aJ rrm KZ V) C-' e m C-' .F S S S OOL . 3 am C> aJ CC0 c
4- 0 h m E L L W 0 c LW The voluntary exodus within a space of one year (1975-76) of 400,000 Portuguese had the side effect that their electrified urban flats and houses became available for occupation by those Angolans who until then had lived in the less "well-to-do" parts of the towns, in poor quality housing without electricity. As a result, a much greater number of urban Angolans got access to electricity for lighting purposes than was the case just before independence. Thus, a substantial part of the pre-independence demand for electricity by urban households continued to be maintai ned after 1976. The several hundreds of thousands of people who moved into Luanda between 1976 and 1982 have built their own accommodation. These modest one or two room dwellings, mostly made of mud walls and corrugated iron roofs (but sometimes also made of cement blocks) , stretch several kilometres a1l around Luanda. These areas are called "musseques". The authorities have l aid on electricity and water connections to some, but not yet to all, of these musseques. Thus a part of the working class also has access to electricity for lighting purposes. The intention of the authorities is to provide electricity to every dwelling in Luanda as soon as possible. But at present, only about 35 per cent of the households in Luanda have electricity. Lubango is in the southern highlands - at 2000 metres above sea level, it is the highest lying town in Angola. There, as in other towns, Angolans moved into the electrified flats and villas abandoned by the Portuguese. However, unlike Luanda, no big musseques have sprung up. The pattern of electricity consumption is roughly the same as it was in 1974, which encompasses some 40 per cent of the households. Taking the average over all the towns, one finds that in 1980, 42 per cent of the urban households were consuming electricity at the rate of 1200 Kwh per year per household. All of this was for lighting. The total actual consumption of electricity in 1980 by urban households was 120 GWH. The use of electricity for cooking is at present negligible, partly because electric stoves are very difficult to come by, and those that have them constitute a tiny minority. The middle class, who comprise 40 per cent of the urban population, use LPG (Butane gas) as the cooking fuel. The remaining 60 per cent, making up the working class, use charcoal. The question arises as to whether electricity will replace LPG as a cooking fuel, at least in part, or whether LPG will not only retain its present position, but will be used by an increasing proportion of the urban population. Angola has good potential to greatly increase its present domestic production of LPG as a byproduct of refining crude petroleum. This potential is very likely to be realized. More LPG at competitive relative prices will be available to the urban population. The stoves that can use LPG are well -tried and are available on the market through an a1 ready establ ished import routine. If electricity has to replace LPG, electric stoves will have to be imported in substantial numbers, and they will .be quite expensive to buy from the average middle class consumer's point of view. Therefore, at least in the medium term, it is quite unlikely that there will be substanti a1 demand for electricity for cooking. On the other hand, Angola has got a huge potential for hydro-electric generation. So, at l east in theory, electricity can rep1ace LPG as a cooking fuel for a part of the urban middle class. The LPG being produced in Angola's only refinery at present is butane gas. This is bottled in cylinders, the net weight of the gas in each cylinder being 12 kgs. As LPG is highly popular with the urban middle class, demand has outstripped domestic production. Some iPG is therefore being imported. Most of the gas gets sold to Luanda inhabitants, with only a small proportion of it reaching other towns. 40 per cent of the urban households have access to LPG today. On an average, an urban household consumes one cylinder containing 12 kgs of gas per month, which adds up to 144 kgs per year. The total urban household consumption of LPG in 1980 was 13,730 metric tons*. But this is much too static an assumption to make. For one thing, as with electricity so with LPG, the demand (in the sense of purchasing power at current relative prices and incomes) is higher than the supply - so a fairly sizeable chunk of the demand remains unfulfilled today. If relative prices continue to be what they are now, this chunk will increase in size by 1990, with rising real incomes, living standards and expectations of the working class. The Cooking fuel for that 60 per cent of the urban population which has no access to electricity and LPG is predominant1.y kerosene for l ighting and charcoal for cooking. At 60 litres of kerosene and 1080 kgs of charcoal, per household per year, the 1980 demand by the urban population was 8560 cubic metres of kerosene and 154,400 tons of charcoal. Charcoal is getting scarcer, and its price is rising sharply. A 15 kgs bag which cost 280 Kwanzas in 1981 in Lubango, now costs 400 Kwanzas. In comparison with charcoal, kerosene is a far cheaper fuel, and much more easily available at present. It costs only 5 Kwanzas a litre. It is, therefore, quite surprising to discover that it is not being widely used for cooking, the way it is for lighting. Apparently, more kerosene was used prior to 1975 than now for cooking. The answer to this puzzle lies in the fact that after 1976 local production of kerosene cooking stoves
*Heredfter, we will use the abbreviation "tons", which should be taken always as meaning 'hettic tons". a,- U m m0 mmtl L m.r.7 m+ c a,- 5 .r- W .rmmn L m+ S- xm3m m W al.? 3 ro 0 3 c tl WWE 00 ou m- 0 S >momTJu u aJ.r a .F m OEDm L m > E 4 D m v 3 m m W aJ su 7 tl mL3ln 2 3 a00 aa, > E 0-s ha,. a* Y 67- m aJ mv rLcvrW C m 6.7 L- 'U a, ffl cl- .- .,-- .,-- > > &+ S .u'Lr"lr m?: tla, >OS UcmL W?- aJLW m 2 E 3 >v "LW ou 0 ?,-C Yr- >Y&vl m Er-.: W m-s W+ - um ic- L 3>OW 6Emo L06 5 .r W . . rm +wm c 3 0 +I- 7 W517 .mu+ 6
TOTAL DEMAND
Table 1.4 provides a summary of total energy consumption in 1980 and the projected demand for 1990. The industrial and services sectors are among the largest consumers of electricity, while the transport, industrial and services sectors are the domi nant consumers of refined petroleum (see Table 1.5). By contrast, agriculture uses at present only relatively small amounts of conventional comrnerci a1 energy, such as electricity and refined petroleum, and that too, only in a few large state-owned farms. Agricul ture is still overwhelmingly of the semi-subsistence peasant variety, with very simple traditional technology, the dominant form of energy input being the physical muscle power of human beings and draught animals. Because of the severe dislocations caused by the voluntary mass exodus in 1975-76 of all skilled Portuguese people, and the disruptions brought about by the Second War of Liberation, manufacturing industry in 1982 is producing only up to 40 per cent of installed capacity, and for many branches the capacity of utilization is even less than this. This fact is also reflected in the consumption of electricity by the industrial sector as a whole, inc?uding mining and construction industries where consumption had fallen from 558 GWH in 1974 to 184 GWH in 1980. The principal consumers within the manufacturing sector are petroleum refining (10.4% of 184 GWH), cement (10.6%), iron and steel products (3.5%) and food processing (2.7%). The services sector is defined to include public lighting, retail and who1 esale trade, government admini stration, defence, hospitals, schools and entertainment establ ishments, etc. In 1980, the service sector was consuming 301 GWH per year, and agriculture 19 GWH, but transport none. The consumption of. refined petroleum in 1980 by services, industry, agriculture, public transport and private motoring were r.espectively 188,400 tons, 116,000 tons, 19,900 tons, 29,600 tons and 4,640 tons. Here, one must note that the services sector includes the
consumption by state-owned veh-icls employed in the subsectors of who1 esale and retail trade, government admini stration, defence, school S, hospital S, etc. The great majori ty of passenger and freight motor vehicles in Angola today are state-owned. To avoid double-counting, this consumption has been l eft out of the transport sector, which is why the public transport sector shows a misleadingly low figure (i.e. 29,600 tons). The number of freight and passenger motor vehicles in 1980 in Angola was roughly about 75,000 taken together. On an average, the State has been buying about 5000 motor vehicles per year from 1977 onwards. Among the components that make up refined petroleum, the demand in the above sectors (i.e. excluding households) is greatest for diesel oil, followed by fuel oil, petrol, LPG and kerosene. The complete breakdowns are given in Tables 1.6 to 1.9. In 1980, the industrial and transport sectors were using respectively, 59,400 tons and 33,000 tons of fuelwood. The main users of fuelwood in industry are bakeries (50%), ceramics manufacture (30%) and foundries (5%). In transport, it is for firing the steam locomotives. The industrial sector was also using about 197,950 tons of wood in 1980 as primary material for the manufacture of wood products and for construction purposes. It is important to note that virtually no coal is mined, or used as fuel, in Angola, at present.
BIOMASS SUPPLY-
The concept of biomass includes fuelwood, wood used as primary material in industrial production, crops that can be chemically processed to give hydrocarbon fuels, crop residues, vegetable residues from industrial processes, and all other such vegetation that is now regarded as "waste'', but which can in fact be converted into fuel by physical and chemi cal transformation processes. Thus, biomass comes out of both forestry and agriculture, and we proceed to make a brief evaluation of the forest and agricultural potential of Angola, in relation to its population. The total land area of Angola is 1.247 million square kilometres, or 124.7 million hectares. The population as of 1980 was 7.151 million, and growing at 2.4 per cent per annum. This gives an average density of 5.7 persons per square kilometre, one of the lowest in the world. Even the most densely populated province (Huambo), which accounts for only 2.4 per cent of the land area, has a density of 34.6 persons per square kilometre, while the l east densely populated province (Cuando-Cubango), which covers 15.4 per cent of the land area, shows a density as low as 0.74 persons per square kilometre.
TABLE 1.7 Consumption of Refined Petroleum Products in Agriculture by Sub-Sectors in 1980
Agricul tural Amount Consumed Sub-sector* Fuel in 1980
Coffee Diesel 4,504 cubic metres Petrol 213 " 8, Fuel Oil not avail able (residual oil ) Sugarcane Diesel 1,421 cubic metres Petrol 116 " I, Fuel Oil 3,310 tons (residual oil ) Livestock Diesel 1,751 cubic metres Petrol 99 " 83 Fuel Oil not available (residual oil ) Others Diesel 10,021 cubic metres Petrol 734 " I, Fuel Oil 65 tons (residual oil )
* It is almost exclusively large farms and plantations that use refined petroleum in the agricultural sector. TABLE 1.8
Consumption of Refined Petroleum in Industry by Sub-Sectors in 1980
Amount Consumed in Industrial Sub-Sector Fuel 1980
Mining Industry Refined Petroleum 46083 cubic metres
Construction Industry Refined Petroleum 7841 cubic metres
Manufacturing Industry* Refined Petroleum 77156 cubic metres
Sub-sectors in Manufacturing Industry: Refined Petroleum
Food processing 2744 cubic metres Beverages 4899 " I1 Fish processing 9793 " I8 Textiles 7772 " I, Energy 1242 " I, Rest of Manufacturing 50706 " I
* Angolan statistics include hotels and restaurants under manufacturing industry. But we have removed this category from here and put it under "Services Sector" (Commerci a1 and Insti tut~onalSector). TABLE 1.9
Consumption of Refined Petroleum in Transport Sub-Sectors in 1980
Amounts Consumed in Transport Sub-Sector Fuel 1980
Road: Private Motor Vehicles Petrol (gasol ene) 5,544 cubic metres
Road: Pub1 ic Motor Vehicles Petrol (gasol ene)2) 934 " I,
Including Commercial Vehicles * Diesel 2 11,282 "
Sea Petrol (gas01 ene) 5 " Diesel 5,502 "
Rail Petrol (gasolene) 27 " ,I Diesel 6,374 " ,I Fuel Oil 5,020 " It (residual oil )
Air Jet Fuel 105,295 " ,, Aviation Gas 1,946 " I, Petrol (gas01ene) 405 " Diesel 382 " ,I
* To avoid double counting, we have here left out the amounts consumed by those state-owned vehicles which are already accounted for under "government administration" in the services sector category (i.e. commercial and institutional sector). The great majority of passenger motor vehicles, and most commercial, freight and heavy transport motor vehicles, are today owned by the State. Fifty per cent of the total land area is covered by natural forests (61 million hectares), and the rest by savannah8 and steppes (62 million hectares of grasslands), with only a tiny fraction constituting an arid region (1.5 million hectares). Figures 1.1 and 1.2 reveal the situation in detail. Plantations, i.e. man-made forests, take up as little as 235,000 hectares at present - these are predominant1 y eucalyptus p1 antations along the Benguela railway, planted with the explicit purpose of providing fuelwood to fire the steam locomotives, as well as providing sleepers for the track. Of the non-forested land of about 63.5 million hectares, 40 per cent has high agricultural potentiai (with more than 85 cms of rain per annum), 45 per cent has medium potential (rainfall between 60 and 85 crns), and the rest 15 per cent low potential (less than 60 cms of rainfall ). See Figure 1.3 for the details and also Table 1.10. It is thus evident that in per capita terms Angola's biomass potential, both present and future, is enormous. In assessing the potential and actual yields of wood by natural forests, we must distinguish between two kinds of products. First, wood whose most valuable use is as primary material in manufacturing and construction industry. Detail; of the supply of wood as a primary material to industry are provided in Table 1.11. Second, wood whose best use is as fuel. The great tropical Maiombe forests of Cabinda Province, and the tropical and sub-tropical evergreen forests of Bengo, Uige, Zaire, Mal anje and Lunda-Norte provinces, yield high quality hardwoods which are in great demand and fetch high prices from furniture and building industries. Similarly, the dry forests and wood1 ands in the central parts of Angola yield wood which is of great potential value in industry, though for less luxurious end-uses than the tropical woods. In other words, that part of the yield from the natural forests which can legitimately be earmarked for use as fuel for burning would not be the tree trunks and the big branches, but the smaller branches and the "wood waste" left after the trees have been "processed" for industrial use. It is outside the scope of this paper to accurately estimate how much of a natural tree in the forests of Angola is legitimately usable as fuelwood; however, it is unlikely to be more than 20 per cent of the total potential yield. The "potential yield" by a natural forest is an off-take that should be so defined as to be consistent with a process of natural self-regeneration. For the tropical and sub-tropical deciduous evergreen forests of Angola, which cover only about 1.2 million hectares, as well as for the woodlands which cover about 49.8 mill ion hectares, the potential yield is "theoretically" estimated by forest experts to be between 10 and 20 cubic metres per hectare per year. (Great caution should be exercised in accepting such theoretical estimates. They ought to be checked against empirical on-the-spot observations). For dry forests, FIGURE 1.1
p---p- NATURAL REGIOMS OF P,P!GOLA FIGURE 1.2
AP'GOLAPI VEGETATIOPI
Forests and Sernl-dec~duous m sub-l~ttoral savannahs th~cket .i\. . Woodlands and sava~inahs B Acac~asteppes - 31 -
FIGURE 1.3 --p
AYGOLF))! RAII'FALL
Ra~nfallper annum (In cent~rnetres) 0 0 0 Ln rz N
N
N
S m 0 W.- v, L- W QP- L .r m U E+' N SU mraJ m -J .r c N
0 L mm ffl c h 7 aJ m aJ L .- 3 aJ t'* Q r W anV) Q E or- U CL7 mm E'trn 3 r .r .r U v mr aJw m E- TABLE 1.11
Supply of Wood as Primary Material (not as fuel) to Industry.
Wood consumed as primary material (not as fuel) in tons
Construction Manufacturing Year Indus try Industry Total Exports Imports
W 1973 555,149* 91 7,747* 1,472,896* 211,052 None W I
1978 67,557 70,538 138,095 None I,
* These three figures are in cubic metres. All the others are in tons. which cover 10 million hectares, the potential yield is theoretically estimated to be only half as much, i.e. 5 to 10 cubic metres per hectare per year. Thus, the natural forests of Angola are estimated as being able to yield a total of 510 to 1020 million cubic metres of wood per year, of which 408 to 816 million cubic metres would be wood for i ndustri a1 production, the rest, 102 to 204 million cubic metres, being fuelwood. Table 1.12 gives a detailed Srcakdown of the country's wood supply potential. The yield from a man-made forest (plantation) is expected to be twice that from a tropical natural forest. For Angola this would be 4.7 to 9.4 million cubic metres per year. The l and that has high and medium potential for agricultural production comprises about 54 million hectares. Of these, in 1973 (historically the "best" year so far for agricultural and industrial production), only 16.3 per cent (i.e. 8.8 million hectares), were being cul tivated. Half of this was cultivated by large commercial farmers, and the other half by semi-subsistence peasants. The former grew export cash crops like coffee, cotton, sugarcane, sisal, tobacco, palm kernel s and bananas, while the latter grew food crops like maize, manioc (cassava), rice, wheat, millet, sorghum, groundnuts, beans and potatoes. Both types of crops did very well in 1973. Exports were good and the country was more than self-sufficient in food, even with a rate of utilisation of land as low as 16.3 per cent. Therefore, there is neither actual nor potential conflict between land for food and export crops and land for fuel crops in Angola, given its present very small population and its rate of growth at 2.4 per cent per annum. Sel f -evi dent1y, there i s no l and hunger. Vast areas of as yet uncultivated agricultural land can be used for afforestation programmes, without in the least affecting abundant production of food and export crops. Naturally, the species to be planted would have to retain the area's ecclogical and floral balance. (In this connection one ought to bear in mind the potential danger to soils and ground water tables of monoculture in man-made forests. In particular, eucalyptus plantations can lead to a dramatic reduction of ground water resources, and to rapid soi l depletion). The actual and potential supply of fuelwood is so great in Angola vis a vis the demand and the need, that one doesn't have to consider the possibility of promoting supplies of other kinds of biomass, such as bagasse, crop residues, etc. The use of sugarcane for producing ethanol is a1 so completely superfluous, as Angola is a large net exporter of petroleum, and will be more than self-sufficient in petroleum for several decades even at high rates of economic growth. But not everything is rosy on the soil conservation front. There is one dangerous trend which has to be ha1 ted quite quickly, namely the ecological damage being inflicted on the l ittoral and sub-l ittoral regions by the present methods of charcoal production for urban household consumption. I hasten to TABLE 1.12
Wood Supply Potential as of 1980
1 potential ) Potential 1) Land area stock in yield in Actual in million cubic metres cubic metres rainfall in f Forest hectares /hectare /hec. /year cms/year deciduous 2rgreen 1.2 100 to 200 10 to 20 120 to 140 cms rests 10.1 50 to 100 5 to 10 60 to 80 cms nds 49.8 100 to 200 10 to 20 120 to 140 cms
\atural Forest 61.1 100 to 200 10 to 20 rial Forests nan-made ) 0.235 160 to 320') 20 to 402) 100 to 140 cms
The Ministry of Agriculture said that it just had no factual and re1iable information on actual and potential yields and stocks of natural forests. The figures given be1ow are pure1y ' theoretical ' in the sense that forest experts claim that in East and Southern Africa potential yields of natural forests are related to rainfall as shown in the table. As such, they must be treated with great caution. Potential stocks are arrived at by mu1 tip1ying potential yields by the number of rotation years, which for natural forests in Southern African conditions is assumed to be 10.
2. Again 'theoretically' the potential yield of intensive1y managed man-made forests is claimed by experts to be about twice that of the potential yield of natural forests. The number of rotation years for man-made forests is assumed to be 8 in Southern Africa conditions. add that charcoal production per se it not damaging within the context of Angola's high wood potential, but the way it is now being conducted is. As pointed out earlier, the urban population has expanded rapidly from 1976 onwards, the most dramatic case being that of Luanda, whose population has trebled from 450,OOG in L974 to 1.2 million in 1982. Some of the major towns which are situated along the coast, south of Luanda, have also experienced rapid growth in their populations due to an influx from the interior. The working classes in these coastal towns (including Luanda), which constitute more than 60 per cent of the urban population, rely almost entirely on charcoal for cooking. To meet this need, the semi-subsistence peasantry produces charcoal from the forests near the coastal towns, to sell in the urban areas. This has built up a big pressure in a short time on the forests of the li ttoral and sub-l i ttoral areas, causing visible deforestation and soil erosion. The problem is made worse by the fact that rainfall is very low along the coast, and once vegetation cover is removed, it doesn't grow back again on its own rapidly enough to halt the erosion. Similar processes are at work in some areas round major towns in the interior as well. There are ways of halting this process, and we will briefly take them up in the concluding chapter. It should be emphasized that the peasants, who make and sell charcoal, do not themselves use it for cooking, but rely on fuelwood. Among other reasons for deforestation and consequent soil erosion in certain parts of the country, the following should be mentioned: 1. The peasants burn large areas of vegetation to get rid of "dangerous" animals and reptiles, and to clear the land from trees so that it can be used for cultivation. 2. They burn parts of forests to drive out and trap wild game, so as to get meat to eat. The persistent and grave shortage of marketed meat livestock has accelerated this process. 3. Tropical ecosystems are complex and delicately balanced. As the trees and the original vegetation round then get burned, regressive species of flora take over. They are "regressive" in the sense that they are not as good as the earlier flora in conserving water and soil. 4. Monocultures on vast farms like those used for sugarcane plantations are bad for soil fertility as the salinity of the soil increases. In some places, individual sugarcane plantations are as big as 20,000 to 25,000 hectares.
SUPPLY OF CONVENTIONAL ENERGY
Table 1.13 gives a complete breakdown of potential energy resources in Angola. TABLE 1.13
Potenti a1 Energy Resources Of Angola
I I I I11 Proved* Total * Overal l * Recoverable Recoverable Prognostic Units Reserves Resources Resources Remarks
mill ion eum tons 55 to 65 400 2500
11 1000 100 1500 2500 Million Cubic Metres = Billion c.m.
power TWH per year 71 to 86 150 Not Avail able
wood Million ood Cubic Yield Betyeen tri a1 Metres per 5 and 20m year per hectare per year
TWH per year
Occurrences*
r Fuel Occurrences*
a1 es Occurrences*
* The concepts used here have the following definitions:
ces = "All the quantities of the useful substance which can be extracted"
es = "Resources which can be extracted economica;ly for exploitation"
"Proved recoverable reserves" = "economically exploitable resources"
"Total recoverable resources" = "technologically exploitable resources"
"Overall prognostic resources" = "theoretically feasible resources"
"Occurrences"= only traces or small deposits, not exploitable as yet.
= "Reliable estimates" in United Nations terminology and classification.
= "Preliminary estimates" in United Nations terminology and classification.
= "Tentative estimates" in United Nations terminology and classification. Electricity.
In 1980, Angola produced 693 GWH of electricity, and consumed 626 GWH. The detailed breakdown of electricity generated and consumed between 1973 and 1981 is provided in Table 1.14. The total installed capacity, in 1981, of the hydro electric units was 287 MW or 1435 GWH, and of the thermal units was 185 MW, or 650 GWH, i .e. a total of 2085 GWH. Thus, the installed capacity as of 1982 is at least 3 times the actual consumption. Even if Angola had no plans to increase its capacity for electricity generation for some years to come, the present installed capacity is large enough to easily meet the demand in a situation when the consumption will have climbed back to the "peak" year of 1974, when it was 920 GWH. One can say with confidence that there will be no shortages of electricity until the economy has climbed back to the production and consumption level S of 1973, which may happen before 1990. But Angola is not static in its thinking about electric power generation. Its plans for rapid growth in many sectors of the economy and society, in particular mining, manufacturing and construction industries, and for growth in rural and urban household electrification, call for the initiation of new projects now, as generating units have long gestation periods, especially hydro-electric ones. In the following sections, I will briefly describe the expansion plans. Some of these are already being implemented, while some others are still under consideration. There are at present three major electricity systems in Angola, but they are not yet interconnected. They are called the north, the central and the south systems (see Figure 1.4). As with the road and railway systems which were built during the coloni a1 period, these three electricity systems run from the interior to the major ports on the Atlantic coast in an east west direction, demonstrating the fact that the colonial regime was mainly interested in extracting primary produce (both agricultural and mineral) from the interior, to be shipped to Portugal and other countries in the West. Studies have been completed on the technical feasibility and technical details of the proposed north-south interconnections of these east-west systems. The first such connection to be executed will most probably be from the north to the central system, so that the latter can share the great hydroelectric potential of the former. The north, central and south systems respective1 y account for 70, 20 and 5 per cent of the total electricity being generated and distributed today. The remaining 5 per cent is made up of a number of small units spread out ;n several provinces - we refer to these collectively as "the other systems". The north system involves the rivers Cuanza and Dange. It supplies the provinces of Luanda, Bengo, Malanje, Cuanza-Norte and Cuanza-Sul. Its main beneficaries are Luanda and Bengo, where not only 80 per cent of the total urban population of the country live, but also most of the industries are concentrated. TABLE 1.14
Electricity Generated And Consumed From 1973 To 1981.
Generated (GWH) Consumed ear Hydro Thermal Total (GWH)
.B. Angola has neither exported nor imported electricity since 1975. Before 1975, there was a negligible export to Zaire. ANGOLA'S ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTIOk! SYSTEM ---pp-----p----
Hydro power plant A Thermal power plant @ Substation o Transrniss~on lines - Lines under - - -- construct~onor study
--T7
( L_-
~Luachlm- Luand dLJLucapa \
Porto Arnbo~rn
Luena
@ Menongue l mls 15 I ? l I I 0 km 150 l l The Cambambe dam across the Cuanza, some 190 kms southeast of the capital city Luanda, is the largest in Angola, and the associated hydroelectric station produces the largest share of electricity in the whole country. It has four generators, each of 45 MW capacity. Cambambe is connected to the city of Luanda by a 220 Kv transmission line, and a second one, also of 220 Kv, is under construction. The hydroelectric station at Mabubas dam across the Dange river lies about 60 kms northeast of L-uanda. Its capacity is 18 MW (2 generators of 3 MW capacity and 2 of 6 h).It is used as a reserve station for Luanda. To meet emergencies, Luanda city has a gas turbine thermal power station of 25 h capacity. An expansion of Cambambe is being undertaken. Four more generators, each of 130 h capacity, are going to be installed in an underground station. To run these new generators, the height of the Cambambe dam will be raised by 30 metres. Further, to regulate the flow of water to Cambambe, a new dam across the Cuanza will be built at Capanda, about 200 km upstream of Cambambe. Capanda is a huge project invoiving investment of the order of 500 to 1000 million US dollars. Work has already started on this project. Portuguese, Brazilian and Soviet concerns are involved in this undertaking. A further seven hydroelectric generating stations are being planned between Cambambe and Capanda. They, together with the Cambambe station, will have an annual capacity of 30,000 GWH. The end-users are expected to be, among others, the proposed iron and steel mill and the proposed aluminium refinery. However, this latter project is still only at the preliminary planning stage, and work will not start until the demand for its huge capacity begins to materi a1i ze. The central system consists of two hydroelectric stations, one each at Lomaum and Biopio, at the sites of the dams built across the river Catumbela. Lomaum has a capacity of 35 h (2x10 + 1x15) and Biopio has 14.4 h (4~3.6). They supply the provinces of Benguela and Huambo. In order to boost the supply during the dry season, when the water level fa1l s in the dams, two thermal power stations have been built, one in the port city of Lobito and another in the city of Huambo. Both are gas turbine stations, the former with a capacity of 22.8 MW, the latter 10 MW. Plans are under consideration for increasing the generating capacity at Lomaum. In the first stage, it is proposed to install 2 generators of 15 h each, followed by the second stage installation of 3 generators of 40 MW each. However, before this can be done, a dam has to be built at Cacombo, upstream of Lomaum, to regulate the water flow. A 220 Kv transmission line connecting the central to the north system will be built in the coming years. This will deliver 100 Mw from the north to the central system, the former being extraordinarely well-endowed in hydro power potenti a1 . The south system comprises hydroelectric stations at the sites of dams built across the river Cunene and its tributaries. It serves the provinces of Mocamedes, Huila and Cunene. At the Matala dam, about 180 kms northeast of the town of Lubango, there are 2 generators each of 13.6 Mw capacity. This hydroelectric station is connected to Lubango and the port city of Mocamedes by one 150 kv and one 60 kv line. In addition, Lubango and Mocamedes have thermal stations of capacity 3.6 Mw (3x0.4 + 12~0.2)and 11.6 MW (2x5.8), respectively. At present, however, only 6 of the 15 generators in the Lubango thermal plant are in operation (2x0.4 MW + 4x0.2 MW). Also currently out of operation are four thermal p1 ants, one each at Jamba (6 MW), Porto Alexandre (1.6 MW), Saco (3 MW) and Tchamutete (1.7 MW). A hydroelectric station has been built and is in operation at Rucana on the Cunene river along the Namibian border. The dam is on the Angolan side, while the generating station is on the Namibian side. No power is being delivered to Angola at present from Rucana, because of the South African occupation of Namibia and the South African invasion and occupation of parts of Cunene province. This is bound to change once Namibia becomes independent. There are proposals to increase the generating capacity of the South system by installing a further 13.6 MW hydroelectric generator at Matala, and 3 hydroelectric generators of 53 MW capacity each at Jamba. The other systems are small and scattered. Their present location, generating capacity and future p1 ans for expansion are summarized in Table 1.15. Prior to 1976, there were a great many oil-fired small generators scattered across the country, especially in the south. During the Second War of Liberation, the retreating South African and Uni ta troops plundered a large number of them, and destroyed what they could not take. However, some 1000 generators are still working, mostly in isolated farms, small towns and villages in the central and southern regions. Their total capacity is between 50 to 250 KVA. There are a number of mobile stations as well. Before independence, the mobile stations that were operating amounted to 3 generators of 630 KVA each and 5 of 500 KVA. In 1979, Angola imported 10 mobile stations (from ASEA of Sweden), with 5 generators of 200 KVA and 5 of 180 KVA. Another one is on its way from France, with a capacity of 3x2000 KVA (supplied by A1 stom-At1 antic). The hydro electricity potential of Angola, re1ative to its small population, is truly enormous. As Table 1.13 shows, the proved recoverable reserves* are 71 to 86 TWH per year, and the total recoverable resources* are 150 TWH per year. The share of
*For a definition of these concepts, and their re1ation to United Nations terminology and classification, see Table 1.13. TABLE 1.15
Other Systel~ls
Present Capacity (MW) Proposed Expansion (h)
Thermal Hydro 'Thermal Hydro nce (in MW) (in MW) (MW) (MW)
da 3x1.8 MW in Mal ongo 1x10 MW
3~0.36MW at Luquixe River
0.5 Mw 1 Mw at at Cuito Cunje River
2x0.2 in Cuvango town on Cubango River
3 2xO.6 at 2x2 MW at Dala*" Luena on Chimbe River
- Norte 6.4 at 9.6 at Lucapa* Luachimo 1.6 at Luxi l o*
5x4 Mw at Chicapa*" on Chicapa River
3x0.4 on Cuebe River**
* out of operation at present. ** a1 ready under construction. the different river systems in the proved recoverable reserves are shown in Table 1.16.
-Crude Petroleum (Crude Oil ) . The production of crude petroleum reached its highest post-independence level so far in 1977, with 8.604 million tons per year. Since then production has declined substantially from that level, flunctuating from year to year, as Table 1.17 shows. At present, production is taking place at three sites: the off-shore fields at Cabinda, operated by Gulf; the on-shore fields in the Congo and Cuanza basins, operated by Petrangol; and the off-shore fields in "Block 2" off the mouth of the Congo river, operated by Texaco (see Figure 1.5). As Table 1.18 shows, Cabinda is and has been, the largest producer over the :ast five years, accounting for 65 to 70 per cent of total production, while the Congo fields come next at 26 to 31 per cent, with the Cuanza fields trailing far behind at about 3 per cent. The entire continental she1 f (excluding that off Cabinda) has been divided into 13 blocks for purposes of off-shore exploration. Of these, blocks 1, 2, 3, 6 and 9 have already been formally awarded, while negotiations are advanced for awarding blocks 4, 7 and 8. Blocks 5, 10, 11, 12, 13 have yet to be awarded. In addition to the state-owned company SONANGOL (Sociedade Angolana de Combustiveis) a number of foreign companies are involved in prospecting for oil in these blocks. They are (apart from Gulf at Cabinda): Agip, Elf, Petrangol, Naftagas, INA Naftapl in, Texaco, Mobi l, Petrobras, Petrofina, Total , Deminex, Union Texas, Cities Service, Kuwai t Petroleum Corporation, AZL Resources, AB Volvo and Sul petro, Hi spano Getty, Murphy, Overseas Drilling and Marathon. No plans for increasing the production of crude oil over the coming years have been published by the Angolan government. If we assume as we did previously in section 2, that the economy can grow at a maximum real rate of 10 per cent per annum, and oil production keeps to the same rate as the economy, crude petroleum production in 1990 will be of the order of 17.5 million tons. There is no natural resource constraint to stop one from achieving this figure, for (at the present state of knowledge) the totally recoverable resources of crude oil are 400 million tons, and overall prognostic potentials are 2500 million tons (see Table 1.13). Obviously, many technical, infrastructural and financial contraints have to be overcome to reach the figure of 17 million tons per annum. The re-injection of natural gas to maintain earlier levels of production from the older wells will he1 p. TABLE 1.16
Share Of Rivei- Systems In Proved Recoverable Reserves
Of Hydroelectric-.----..-.p Power.
Catchment Instal led Guaranteed Average Area in Capacity Generation Generation ?r System Square km in MW in GWHfYear in GWH/Year
3 Cuanza io Cuanza
Jnza, zhombo, le, Bacombo
?ne South tern
?ne Rucana (only ~la'sshare) TABLE 1.17
Production And Export Of Crude Petroleum
(in million tons)
Year Prodijction Export OIL CONCESSIONS -p--
ZAIRE - 7 I l ? \ 7 .l. L..
ANGOLA
1 0- km 150
@Huambo TABLE 1.18
Share Of Different Oil Fields In Crude Petroleum Production
YEAR
Total production in million tons 6.423 6.775 7.113 6.760 8.604
Oilfield
Cabinda
Absol ute val ue in million tons
As percentage of total production
Congo
Absol ute value in million tons 2.003 2.079 1.963 1.895 2.227
As percentage of total production 31.2 30.7 27.6 28.0 25.9
Cuanza
Absolute value in million tons 0.188 0.175 0.220 0.200 0.259
As percentage of total production 2.9 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 Natural Gas
As Table 1.13 shows, Angola has immense recoverable reserves and recoverable resources of natural gas, which exist both on its own in gas fields, and also mixed up with crude oil in oil fields. The amount of gas escaping from the oil fields during crude oil extraction was estimated to be about 1000 million cubic metres per year. Until 1982, almost all of this was being flared (i.e. wasted), with only about 88 million cubic metres being pumped back. Plans are now afoot to pump more of this gas back into the wells to help "lift" more oil, and to use a part for producing LPG for household use. It is the intention of the government to use natural gas for manufacturing ammonia and urea, and for the general petrochemical industry in general. But these are still long range ideas. No policy has yet been formulated definitely about the use of the gas. Arthur D. Li ttle have completed a feasibility study on the ammonia and urea projects. Their overall conclusion is that "feasibility" depends on the "price" put on gas. At the moment, gas is "not priced" as most of it is being flared and a very small fraction used for "gas lift" of crude oil. Some gas is also being exported. The Ministry of Petroleum claims that from 1983 no more gas will be flared.
Refined Petroleum.
At present, Angola has only one refinery owned jointly by Sonangol and Petrangol, and it is situated on the outskirts of Luanda. Its installed capacity is 1.5 million tons. As Table 1.19 shows, production has been rising steadily since 1977, but the limit set by the installed capacity has not yet been reached. About half the production is exported, while an amount equal to 6 per cent of the production is imported. These imports are some specific distillates which cannot yet be produced in adequate quantities from the given composition of Angolan oil. The projected demand for refined petroleum in 1990 is 980,800 tons (see Table 1.4). This can be met by the existing refinery. However, the government intends to export much more refined petroleum than it is doing presently. By 1990, the government wants to raise the installed capacity of the present refinery to 4 million tons. The Soviet Union has been given the contract to build Angola's second refinery.
Other Conventional Fuel S.
AI though coal, uranium and other nuclear fuels, and oil shale have been detected in Angola, still no sizeable deposits have yet been found. So with the present state of knowledge, there are no proved recoverable reserves of these other fuel S. The very small amounts of coal used in industrial processes (not as a fuel) are imported. TABLE 1.19
Production, Export And Import Of Refined Petroleum In Tons.
(Total installed capacity as of 1982 = 1,500,000 tons)
Production Exports Imports Year (in tons) (in tons) (in tons) ENERGY ISSUES AND CONCLUSIONSL
In order to match the end-use, demand and supply pictures presented in the foregoing chapters, we divide the discussion into two parts: first, the process of recovery from the present severe economic crisis which began in 1976; second, growth and development after the economy has recovered to 1973 levels. The severe economic crisis that hit the country in 1975-76 as a result of the Second War of Liberation has not only continued to this day, but has been made worse by the continued invasion of Angola by South Africa and the deliberate destruction caused by the invading South African troops. As a result of this, agricultural and industrial products, and essenti a1 social services, generated in 1982, are less than 50 per cent of what they were in 1973, the "best" year for production in pre-independence times. Consequently, the socio-economic sectors of production and distribution are today consuming only 30 to 50 per cent of the total installed capacity in the generation of conventional energy. Assuming that the maximum achievable real and steady growth rate for the economy between now and 1990 is about 10 per cent per annum, the economy will recover to 1973 levels sometime before 1990. During this period of recovery, the instal led capaci ty for supply of conventional energy wi l l be substantially greater than demand, and in principle, no shortages should arise, even allowing for a growth in the export of oil (petroleum) by 10 per cent per annum. The exodus of about 400,000 Portuguese in 1975-76 meant that considerable amounts of conventional energy for household use were freed for use by others. Although the entry of the Angolan urban households into the middle class and thus into consumption of conventional energy has been very rapid over the last five years, still they have not been able to entirely soak up the energy so released. Assuming that the urban population will grow at 5 per cent per annum, and the rural population at 2 per cent per annum, and assuming that there will be no radical change in their pattern of energy consumption as between conventional energy, fuelwood and charcoal, we can safely conclude that the present installed capacity can supply more conventional energy than the households can use up to the year 1990. There is, however, a crucial difference between the excess capacity that now exists in the generation of conventional energy and the actual delivery of it to end-users. The delivery of electrici ty and refined petroleum to urban households, industries, large farms and various institutions in the service sector is fairly regular, but breakdowns do occur for four major reasons: 1. Suppl ies to areas in the southern provinces and the central highlands are occasionally he1 d up or delayed, by the war conditions that persist there. This problem can be resolved only when the war ends. 2. The generation and distribution equipment break down because of a lack of spare parts and maintenance.
3. The tremendous shortage of technicians at all levels (basic, middle and high) to operate, supervise, maintain and repair equi pmen t.
4. The aging of the equipment installed some 20 to 30 years ago.
The problem of spare parts, although a nuisance, is not too difficult to master. The electricity equipment is principally from Portugal and to a lesser extent from the U.K. and other Western European countries. Spare parts are obtainable from the manufacturers, but delays occur due to inadequate planning and placing of orders in good time, as well as in transport from Europe to Angola, and unloading and clearing the imports in Angola. More efficient p1 anning, and imp1 ementation of the p1 ans for preventive maintenance and forward ordering of spare parts can ease this situation. There are no spare part or maintenance problems in the oil industry, which is being run very efficiently. The replacing of aging electrical equipment is a difficult problem involving large amounts of money in foreign currency. The drop in oil prices from $36 to $29 per barrel in the second quarter of 1981, the drop in production and export sales of oil in 1981 and 1982 relative to 1979 and 1980, and the increase in investments in the oil industry, together have resulted in a serious balance of payments situation and a liquidity crisis. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to release large amounts of foreign exchange for purchasing new electrical equipment. One has to rely on foreign loans, credits and grants-in-aid to redress this situation. The most serious problem of all is the great lack of technicians, caused originally by the sudden mass exodus of the Portuguese. We will give three examples which illustrate this:
A. The Empresa de Distribucao de Electricidade de Luanda (EDEL) is a public utility in charge of distributing electricity to Luanda and its surroundings. To function efficiently, it requires about 18 university trained engineers, 30 high l eve1 technicians to lead the maintenance and repair brigades, and 24 middle and high level administrators and managers. but it has only 3 Anyolan engineers, 15 Angolan brigade leaders and 12 Angolan administrators and managers. This gap has been partly fil led by employing engineers and technicians from Portugal, the Soviet Union, and Cuba. B. The Lubango section of the Empresa National de Electricidade (ENE) is a public utility which is responsible for distribution of electricity in the Huil a and Mocamedes provinces. To work smoothly, it requires 6 university trained engineers and 12 middle level technicians, but has at present only 3 Angolan engineers and 6 Angolan technicians avail able. Again the shortfall is being made good by employing foreign technicians, in this case from the Soviet Union. In general, one can say that in the electricity sector a large number of Portuguese engineers and technicians are he1 ping out as "cooperantes".
C. In the oil industry there are very few Angolans at the level of engineers and high l eve1 technicians. Leaving out the foreign companies who are in charge of mining the oil and who employ almost exclusively only foreign engineers and technicians, and taking only the Ministry of Petroleum as an example, we find that in 1981, this Ministry was employing 124 foreigners, in the following capacities: 4 managers, 33 high level technicians, 42 middle level technicians, 6 specialized skilled workers, 31 administrative personnel, and 8 miscel l aneous. Of these, 90 were from Portugal, 5 from France, 7 from Brazil, and the rest were spread out among ten other countries in ones and twos. This situation will change in the future, as trained Angolans come out of the Central Petroleum School (Escol a Central de Petrol es) situated in the coastal town of N'Gunza, south of Luanda. This school is at present training 200 persons in middle level technical skills, of whom about 180 are Angolans and the rest come from other SADCC and non-SADCC countries.
The bottlenecks in the delivery of energy to end-users can be permanently removed only by training a huge number of Angolans in a variety of technical and managerial skills. This is a programme that requires between 10 and 15 years to fulfill. Until then, foreign experts will be indispensable, although they can be phased out gradually by stages as more and more Angol ans are trained. Needless to say, technical and managerial training has to be given the very highest priority, and lots of resources. Not only energy, but the revival of the whole economy depends on this. The urban working class, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of the urban population, depends mainly on charcoal as a cooking fuel. As we pointed out earlier, this dependence has resulted in serious deforestation and soil erosion in the littoral and sub-littoral areas, as well as in the surroundings of major towns in the interior. The peasants, who make and sell this charcoal to urban consumers, themselves do not use it as a cooking fuel, but rely almost entirely on fuelwood. To ha1 t the environmental damage and conserve soil and water resources, immediate action is needed either to provide the working class and a part of the middle class with an alternative to charcoal, or to make charcoal by other methods than those presently being used. Both of these are feasible in Angola. Taking up the first a1 ternati ve, we note that kerosene can be made available to the entire working class and the lower middle class at subsidised prices (today's prices are already subsidised) and in adequate quanti ti ties, for both cooking and l ighting purposes. Angola can easily and rapidly meet this demand for kerosene either out of its own refining capacity or through imports, as it is a large net exporter of crude oil and refined petroleum. Simul taneously, l argescale production and distribution of kerosene cooking stoves and lamps must be undertaken. The second a1 ternative requires more time and more organisation than the first one. Charcoal production should be semi-centralized to those parts of the interior (away from the littoral and sub-l ittoral areas) where the potential for man-made forests is high. At these charcoal plantations, owned by the state or by rural cooperatives, charcoal can be produced in the most efficient way possible under the present state of technological know1 edge, and re-forestation be undertaken systematically to provide the wood for making the charcoal. This will spare the natural forests for a more rational and ecological l y sound use. It is possible to fight against the present tendency towards deforestation and soil erosion in the l ittoral and sub-l ittoral areas. A two pronged strategy is required: first, a programme of planting and nurturing indigenous species of trees; second, a selective, l imi ted and control led exploitation of both man-made and natural forests, with particular attention being paid to soils and water resources. For this strategy to succeed, the close col1aboration of the rural population is required. Angola has enough generating capacity today to supply electricity to every urban household. The problem lies in the money, manpower and organisation that is required for the distribution network. This cannot happen overnight, but has to proceed at a reasonable speed. Universal urban electrification will free a lot of kerosene that is being used for lighting. Rural households constitute 80 per cent of the population today. Some of the eastern and sou.thern provinces, which are vast in size, have very small populations, which are spread out in individual homesteads or move with their herds of cattle in grazing cycles. In these areas, there is no mediunl term alternative to fuelwood as a cooking fuel. And there is no threat whatsoever in these extremely thinly popul ated provinces to natural forests as a source of fuelwood. No conservation measures are required, and the current situation can continue. But in the re1ativel y more dense1 y populated central and northern provinces, with cluster -of-houses type villages, a differentiated approach is required. The supply of kerosene should and can be augmented so that it is available to every rural household as a lighting fuel. Parallel to this, electrification of the densest population areas (only relatively speaking, as there are very few really dense1 y populated rural areas in Angola) should be undertaken, which will take the pressure off kerosene as a lighting fuel. The use of fuelwood as a cooking fuel by the rural population cannot be changed in the medium term. Nor is there any need to, from the point of view of conservation of forest, soil and water. The fuelwood that is collected consists of twigs and small branches which have either fallen off trees and bushes, or are broken off from them. Trees and bushes are almost never cut down for fuelwood purposes. Given the present lack of proper implements, rural people cannot cut down trees, even if they wanted to. The present natural forest potential is so great in Angola that collection of fuelwood as described here does no damage, at present and medium term levels of the rural popul ation. On the other hand, peasants do burn down trees for clearing the land on a cyclical-migration basis for traditional agriculture. But traditional agricultural practices do not as yet pose a threat to forests and other vegetation cover. From a social and socio-economic point of view it would be high1y desirable to provide an a1 ternative to fuelwood. On1 y women and children go out to collect firewood. On an average, a woman or a child spends 3 to 4 hours every second day on this task, i.e. about 9 to 12 hours per week. This is hard and exhausting work. An a1 ternative cooking fuel (the most feasible and practical in the near and medium term is kerosene) would not only release women and children from this drudgery, but would release their labour for essential production and service activities. And children can use the time for learning and playing. The scenario we have dealt with so far is one where the economy will climb back to 1973 levels at least by 1990. Beyond that, the demand for energy will depend on the plans for social and economic development that the Party and the Government will formul ate. Apparent1 y, the Development P1 ans for periods beyond 1985 have not yet been formulated. So we cannot enter into a discussion of the long term demand and supply of energy. However, we can state confidently that given the present very small population and its modest growth rate, Angola's recoverable energy reserves and resources are so big that there will be no natural resource constraints to social and economic development even in the long run. This applies to electricity, petroleum, natural gas and wood (see Table 1.13). Indeed, one can go further and say that the potential is so great as to permit the export, or sharing, of conventional energy with other SADCC countries. There is plenty of scope not only for exporting crude petroleum and refined petroleum to SADCC countries, but also for sharing the hydro-electrici ty that can be generated along the river systems that are near the borders, e.g. the Cunene, Cubango, Cuanda and Zambezi river systems.
Energy Issues.
The MPLA-Workers' Party has authorised the Ministry of Petroleum to formulate the energy p01 icy of Angola. This ministry is directly responsible to the President of the People's Republic. In principle, the Ministry of Petroleum is independent of the Ministry of Energy. However, in practice, the two ministries consult, and coordinate with each other on issues dealing with energy. The following issues are being considered by the Angol an government:
1. An increase in the production of crude oil Irl order to increase export revenue from oil.
2. Meeting more of the domestic demand for refined petroleum products by increasing domestic refining. 3. A1 tering the structure of domestic production of refined petroleum products to meet the present and changing patterns of domestic consumption. For instance, diesel oil is in short supply and is being imported to supplement domestic production, one of the major end-uses being in thermal power plants. The domestic production of diesel "oil has to go up. On the other hand, fuel oil is in excess supply, more than 98 per cent of domestic production being exported. Its production has to be reduced.
4. Making a choice between more centralization or decentralization of future oil refineries, when expanding refinery capaci ty.
5. Proportionately decreasing the export of oil in its crude form, and in its p1 ace proportionate1y increasing the export of refined petroleum.
6. Training Angolans in various skills required by the energy sectors.
7. An increase in the production of electricity.
8. Extension of the use of electricity for urban cooking to replace some of the LPG which is being supplemented by small imports. Conversely, to extend the use of LPG into the rural areas and small towns, which cannot be easily reached by grid electricity. 9. Restructuring the consumption of petrol (gasolene). The present domestic production of petrol is enough to meet the present demand by motor vehicles. If this demand grows, petrol may have to be imported, barring a quick increase in the domestic refinery capacity. A1 ternativel y, imports of passenger motor vehicles may have to be restricted.
10. The consumption of diesel oil may have to go down, proportionately to other refined products, e.g. kerosene consumption by households may have to increase proportionate1y to diesel.
11. Making a beginning with new and renewable sources of energy (NRSE). A department has been set up in the Ministry of Energy to deal with NRSE. It wants to launch a number of projects in the use of solar energy and biomass, but they are still at the stage of ideas, and no funds have yet been committed to them.
12. As far as forestry is concerned, the government's policy is to increase the use of forests as a source of raw material for wood based industries. The conservation and regulated use of forests have not yet become important issues. The idea is being mooted of extending the eucalyptus p1 antati ons, which were started during the col oni a1 era in 1969, in the Malanje area. Acknowl edgments
It gives me great pleasure to thank Mr.Pedro van Dunem, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, and Mr. Carval ho Simoes, Director General of the National Electricity Corporation (Empresa Nacional de Electricidade, ENE), for their great hospitality, excel lent arrangements of visits to various ministries, departments and organizations, and their full cooperation extended throughout. Mr.Carvalho Simoes and his staff at ENE spared no efforts in finding the sources for the data I wanted, in arranging for my interviews with various officials and my field visits within Angola. I extend my most sincere and warm thanks to all of them.
References and Sources
The sources for the data and information presented in the paper are the following: The Ministries of P1 anning, Energy, Petroleum, Agricul ture and Industry; the National Electricity Corporation (ENE), the Sociedade Nacional de Estudo e Financiamento de Empreendimento U1 tramari no (SONEFE), and the Empresa de Di stribuicao de Electricidade de Luanda (EDEL) . The numerous officials in these ministries and establishments whom I interviewed gave willingly of their time, patiently answered my questions and made reports available to me. I thank them all most warm1 y. In addition to the information that was available to me from the above-mentioned sources, I have also used the following studies, reports and documents: Reports of the Banco Nacional de Angola; Quarter1y Economic Reviews of the Economist Intelligence Unit, London; The UNDP (PNUD) Energy Study of Angola, 1982 (First Draft, unpublished). Additional data on the energy sector is provided in the Annex. TABLE A 1.1
Basic Data on Angola
Land Area: 1,246,700 square kilometres
Estimated Average Annual 1980 Estimate Growth Rate
Total popul ation 7.151 million 2.4 per cent
Urban population 1.43 million 5 per cent
Rural popul ation 5.72 million 2 per cent
Urban households* 238,300 ----
Rural households* 715,200 ----
* On an average, an urban household contains six persons and a rural household eight persons.
Currency Kwanza = l00 Lwei . Non-converti bl e. Official rate of exchange in July 1982 was 30.2 Kw = $1.00 U.S.
Gross Domestic Product
(Kw mn)
GDP at current prices 65,510 79,370 99,697 104,480 GDP at 1973 constant prices 24,990 30,641 31,117 30,906 TABLE A 1.2 Share of Electricity Consumption by Socio-Economic Sectors in 1974 and 1980
As Percentage Socio-economic Consumption of Total Sector in GWH Consumption
For 1974 Private lighting 157.5 17.1
Public lighting 90.4 9.8
E: ectric motors 557.7 60.7 The rest 113.6 12.4
For 1980 (Estimate)
Households 120 19.0
Indus try 188 30.0 Agri cul ture 19 3.0 Servi ces 301 48.0 TABLE A 1.3
Electricity Consumpti E.in Manufacturing Industry
by Subsectors in 1980,-.--.-p----.---p- in the Northern Provinces.
Manufacturing Subsectors?
Food processing 5,119
Tobacco products 797
Textiles 3,051
Pulp, paper and paper products 99
Petroleum refining 19,550
Rubber products 4,501
P1 astic products 5,912
Cement 19,944
G1 ass products 1,094
Ceramic products 917
Iron and steel products 6,761
Non-ferrous metal products 181
Non-el ectrical machinery 2 9
Electrical consumer durables (e.g. radios, television sets, household gadgets, etc. ) 2,516
Commercial and heavy transport vehicles (e.g. trucks, tractors, earth moving equipment) 84
* The major portion of manufacturing industry is located in the northern provinces of Luanda and Bengo, and is supplied by the two public utilities SONEFE and EDEL. The following figures can thus be taken to be representative of consumption by various subsectors.
** The following is -not a complete list of subsectors. Many subsectors have had to be left out, as no data was avail able for them. TABLE A 1-4
Electricity Capacity by P1 ant Type in 1981.
Capacity
Electricity Instal led Actuall y Generated Plant Type (in MW) used (MW) ( GWH )
Hydroelectric 287 181 7 687 m E L Diesel fired 103 2 a, Jet fuel fired 25 gS+- 2 7 Gas turbine 4 5 l2 7 m .v 0 Coal fired 12 0 t- 0 TABLE A 1.5
Prices of Refined Petroleum Products for Sale Within Angola (in kwanzas. 30kw = $1.00)
Price in kwanzas Unit 1980 1981
LPG (Butane Gas) ton 8,630
Petrol (Gas01 ene) cubic metres 12,777
Jet Fuel B 3,602
Jet Fuel A 6,420
Kerosene 2,791 liesel 3,578
=uel Oil ton 1,156
4sphal t ton 1,720
4viation Gas cub:c metres 22,000
Lubricants I, I, 28,000
Sol vents not avail able
CHAPTER 2
BOTSWANA
b Y
Ben Wisner ABBREVIATIONS
BCL Bamangwato Concessions Ltd. (copper-ni ckel complex).
BMC Botswana Meat Corporation.
BPC Botswana Power Corporation.
BRET Botswana Renewable Energy Technologies.
BTC Botswana Technology Centre.
CTO Central Transport Organisation (MWC).
DDE Department of Electrical Engineering (MMRWA) .
GOB Government of Botswana.
KRDA Kweneng Rural Development Association.
MOA Ministry of Agriculture.
MC I Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
MFDP Ministry of Finance and Devel oprnent P1 anning.
MLGL Ministry of Local Government and Lands.
MMRWA Ministry of Mineral Resources and Water Affairs.
MWC Ministry of Works and Communications.
RIIC Rural Industries Innovation Centre.
RIP Rural Industries Promoti on (MCI) .
UNERG United Nations Energy Research Group
USAID United States Agency for International Development - 67 -
BACKGROUND
Geographical Setting
Botswana is a medium-sized southern African state sharing 1300 km of border with Namibia (roughly 500 km of this bordering the Caprivi strip), 1,200 km of border with the Republic of South Africa, and 700 km of border with Zimbabwe. It has access to Zambia by road over the Zambezi river, where Npibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Botswana meet. With 575,000 km of territory, Botswana is about the same size as Zambia (See Figure 2.1). Rainfall varies from below 250 mm a year with a very high coefficient of variation in the southwest to a higher and more reliable annual average above 650 mm in the north (see Figure 2.2). Vegetation varies accordingly from shrub savanna in the southwest through tree savanna as one moves northeastwards, with significant zones of aquatic grassland, grass savanna, and Mopane woodland in the north and northwest (see Figure 2.3). Roughly fourteen per cent of Botswana's surface might be classified as suitable for arable farming or intensive l ivestock husbandry. Njtural vegetation in this zone grows at roughly 1.3 - 1.6 m /ha/yr. Roughly 84% might be classified as suitable for extensive grazing, hunting, gathering, and wilderness preservation. 13 this zone annual vegetation productivity is lower at 0.49m /ha/yr. Finally it is significant to note that for much of the year virtually the entire human and livestock population is dependent on wells and some 7,000 boreholes with an average depth of 100 m and significant salinity problems.
Population
According to the 1981 census, the population of Botswana was 936,600. A further 41,700 Botswana citizens were outside the country at the time, many of them working in South Africa. Roughly 80% of the population inhabits the eastern 15% of the country on either side of the line of rail and in zones of higher agro-ecol ogical potenti a1 . Twenty-eight per cent of the population lives in concentrated settlements of 15,000 persons or larger, although only 16% of the population is officially considered "urban". Such patterns of regional and local concentration will be seen to have a significant role in constraining access to fuelwood and other vegetation resources. Local concentrations are somewhat modified by the generally high level of mobility of the population in rural areas, who shift seasonal l y from l arge vill ages to agricul tural "lands" and/or cattle camps. The populations of the semi-arid southwestern and western Districts of Kgal agadi and Ghanzi (42,700 persons, many of whom are nomadic San or Basarwa people) are tending to sedentarize around bore-holespin small service centers, producing high1y local ized, intense pressure on fuelwood and other renewable resources. - 58 -
FIGURE 2.1 -- .------
REPUBLIC- -- OF BOTSWANA .F.- I- G UR-E- 2.7- Annual ra~nfall BOTSWAllA RAINFALL ..- - .--. ------(In rn~ll~rnetres) FIGURE 2.1
VEGETATION IN BOTSWANA Economy.
From the 1920's, when South African ranchers excluded Botswana's beef from South Africa's market, the economy of the then colony of Bechuanaland, was almost entirely oriented toward subsistence farming and husbandry and the export of migrant labour to South Africa (13). The late 1950's and 1960's saw the beginning of some export of frozen beef to Europe and some technical innovations in l ivestock-keepi ng and farmi ng, principally through the introduction of boreholes and ploughs (13). Even so, at independence in 1966, Botswana was one of the poorest countries in the world with a per capita GDP of about 60 Pula (US $69) a year. The newly independent economy began on a somber note with one third of the national herd of cattle dead due to prolonged drought in the early 1960's and one fifth of the population receiving famine relief (14). In 1968/69 the GDP was a mere 51.2 million Pula (US $59 million). Measured against this beginning, growth since independence has been truly remarkable. Colclough and McCarthy (14, p. 55) describe the process as follows:
Domestic production measured in constant prices almost quadrupled within the first seven years of independence, allowing income per capita to triple over the same period. In real terms, the rate of economic growth appears to have been in excess of 15 per cent between 1966 and 1973.
Between 1975 and 1980, GDP grew from P269.8 m to 670.9 m, an increase of roughly 20% per annum. During this same period exports grew on average by 53% each year and imports by 47%. Much of this phenomenal growth is due to the development of large-scale diamond and copper/nickel mining in the country. Mining overtook agriculture in terms of GDP in the fiscal year 1978/79, doubling the value of its production that same year, and doubling it again in the following year (2). To this extent Botswana's economy remains structural l y imbal anced with a re1ativel y l arge mining sector oriented toward foreign markets, weak manufacturing industries, and uneven1y developed infrastructure. The dominance of the mining sector is dramatically suggested by its massive share of electricity consumption, 88%. This rapid and unbalanced growth has done little to increase the productivity of the small family farm, where grain yields as low as 200-250 kg/ha and frequent crop failures are still the rule. Behind the rising GDP per capita statistics there still lies a highly skewed distribution of income, according to which, the richest 10% of households receive 42% of the total income (22). Access to land is complicated by a two-tiered system of private and communal ownership and by the fact that rights in land remain theoretical where access to water (necessary to make such land useful as grazing) may be privately owned. In 1970, the poorer ha1 f of Botswana's population had established customary rights in less than one per cent of Botswana's land area, although the present situation may be improved (22, 111). Access to cattle, not only a basic means of subsistence but the major means of production, is even more highly skewed. Fifteen per cent of households own three-quarters of the national herd (14, 55). Forty-five per cent of households own no cattle, and are dependent on others for oxen at ploughing time (41, 81). Lack of access to oxen for timely ploughing has been cited in numerous studies as the major impediment to increasing rural productivity (13, 14, 22, 79). Furthermore, the trend seems to be towards an increasing concentration of cattle ownership in Botswana (14). It is, therefore, significant in understanding patterns of urban and rural domestic energy use as well as in forecasting future energy use to bear in mind the persistence of absolute levels of poverty for perhaps 45% (roughly 59,000) of rural households (55), and for between 36% - 47% of urban households (54). Numerous development projects targeting these groups have been launched by the GOB in recent years, and these projects have their own significance in the national energy accounts. Besides the kinds of access to income, land, and livestock already mentioned, poor households (as defined above) appear also to share these following characteristics:
1. They are the majority in the small villages (less than 500 inhabitants) (22);
2. "Where a poor household has a young male member, he is likely to be absent on the South African mines or in the towns of Botswana, working or seeking work" (22);
3. Income from farming is the least important source of income for the poor. They rely instead on gathering activities, transfers from migrant labourers, casual wage labour, hunting, handicrafts, and beer brewing (22);
4. There is a strong rural /urban interdependency in poor households due to their dependency on income transfers and the maintenance of a base in rural areas where children can be sent during hard times, etc. (22, 75, 15);
5. Many of these poorest houeholds (possibly 30% of them) are female-headed. In turn, a large proportion of the rough1y 5,000 househol ds depending on sorghum beer-brewing for their subsistence fall into this poor, femal e-headed category (19, 67). The energy implications of such characteristics are numerous. For instance, something like 13,000 tonnes of fuelwood (with a calorific value of 0.21 PJ) was used during 1981 to brew sorghum beer. This amounted to roughly 2% of a1 l fuelwood consumption in the country. The beer itself represented 16% of all calories consumed in the country that year, (67) and the brewing used 20% of the collected water (16).
Foreign Trade.
Since 1910 Botswana has been associated with South Africa in a common customs union. This agreement was revised to Botswana's advantage three years after independence, in 1969, but the fact remains that it imports the majority of its foreign goods from South Africa (88% of imports in 1979, 87% in 1980) (49, 72). Botswana exports goods to a wider range of markets. Sixty-one per cent of exports in 1980 went to European countries other than the U.K, 21% to the U.S.A., 8% to African countries other than the RSA, 7% to South Africa, and 2% to Great Britain (49). These simple facts of Botswana's external trade have two immediate implications for its energy system. First, it will be seen in the following that Botswana depends entirely on imports from South Africa for its refined petroleum requirements. Taking energy consumption in all sectors of all energy sources into account (refined petroleum, coal, electricity, wood, crop residues, and dung), refined petroleum accounted for 20% of a1 l energy consumed in 1980. This is a weighty dependency and highlights the importance of the SADCC energy initiative. Second, although there are provisions in the 1969 customs union agreement for the temporary protection of infant industries in Botswana, at present domestic industry simply does not compete with South Africa in producing a wide range of energy-related end-use devices and technologies. Something as widespread in Botswana's rural areas as candles for illumination are imported from South Africa. Botswana's only candle manufacturer, in Lobatse, exports its production to Zimbabwe because it cannot compete for the home market. As the valuable research carried out in Botswana today by such units as the Rural Industries Innovation Centre and Botswana Technology Centre come of age, serious thought must be given to the backward linkages required in the home manufacturing sector, if mass production of windmills, solar panels, and producer gas units is not to increase dependency. Background data on Botswana are summarized in Table 2.1.
HOUSEHOLD ENERGY DEMAND p------TABLE 2.1
Demograph~c/Economic Background
Projected Ave. Annual Growth Rate (%/yr).
Total Population (defacto) 936,600 (a) (dejure) 978,300
Urban Popul at1on 150,600 5%
Rural Population 786,000 3 %
Urban Households 33,467 5%
Rural Households 131,000
GDP (m~llionsof Pula (C)) 671'~'
Industrial Output (m~llionsof Pula)
Subsector % GDP
Agri cul ture 79.6 11.9 7.3(e)
Mining & Quarrying 217.2 32.4 15.8
Electric1ty & Water 14.0 2.1 8.2
Trade, Wholesale & Retall 142.4 21.2 6.8
Transport & Communications 13.1 2.0 6.5
General Government 68.3 10.2 (15.9 - Local Gov't (11.4 - Central Gov't
Household, Social & Community Services 31.8
Dummy Sector --28.1
(a) 1981 figure used because ~t was said to suffer from a 4-5% undercount, hence in real~ty approximated the actual popul atr on total rn 1980. (b) Sl~ghtly lower than the 5% experienced 1971-1981 on the assumption that rn~grationf neighbour~ngcountries will decrease. PI00 = U.S. $115. (d) Data source (2). je) Source for growth projections. The agreed common format of the country reports deals separately with energy demand and supply. Whilst being a convenient and useful way of organizing the study, such a distinction is artificial, and several key linking points will be seen to emerge in different ways in several of the following sections. It is also important to note at the outset, that by "household energy demand" one means end-use activity, whether or not energy sources are purchased. Furthermore, "household" will necessarily have to be used in a sense somewhat broader than "domestic" (e.g. referring to straightforward reproduction of labour power: cooking, space heating, illumination) in order to accommodate family-based, non-farm production of an artisanal character (e.g. sorghum beer-brewing, blacksmithing, etc.)
Rural Househol d Demand.
Characterization of the households. The definition of "rural " is somewhat problematic in Botswana. Two historical centers of population concentration, Franci stown and Lobatse, the recent1y establ ished national capital , Gaborone, and the mining towns (Selebi-Phikwe and Orapa in 1971, with Jwaneng added in 1981) are administratively defined as urban p1 aces. The population enumerated within their boundaries (3.9% of the total in 1964, 9.5% in 1971, and 16% in 1981) is called "urban". The remaining 84% (in 1981) would be, by exclusion, "rural". One problem with this definition is that three of the remaining largest "villages" are, in fact, bigger than three of the gazetted urban places. The eight largest villages surpass three of Botswana's urban places in population. One might assume that the urban p1 aces offer access to typicall y urban infrastructure (in particular electrification) not avail able elsewhere. This is not the case. Of the sixteen "major villages" with populations greater than 4,600, four are present1 y connected to the national electricity grid, two more are scheduled to be connected soon, and four have their own diesel generating sets operated by the Botswana Power Company, making a total of nine out of sixteen settlements electrified, or soon scheduled to be so. The 1981. census revealed growth rates that further complicate the definition. Eleven of the sixteen major villages are growing faster than either Francistown or Lobatse. This is not to deny an extreme rate of "official" urbanization. Gaborone grew 237% between 1971 and 1981, and the mining towns of Selebi-Phikwe and Orapa grew at rates of 511% and 330%, respectively. All three rates of urbanization are higher than the highest registered by a major village (152%). The fact remains that a significant proportion of "urbanward" and "centripedal" population movement and resettlement is focussing on the major villages. If one takes into account the other recent trend toward permanent relocation of village dwellers to their "lands" up to 25 km from the village (105), the scale of this "other" urbanization is significant indeed. A final problem surrounding the definition of "rural" households for the purpose of analysing energy use patterns is the very large interdependency between urban and rural members of the same family. Even residents of Gaborone have significant linkages. One study found 90% of the adult Gaborone population to have rural connections in the form of property, such as a house, livestock, land or a business. Gaborone's residents also remitted roughly 10% of their income back to rural areas (75). In Selebi-Phikwe, it was found in 1975 that 70% of households continued to be involved in agri cul ture in their rural home areas (15). Another study found the residents of Francistown to have very strong rural connections (75). Seventy per cent had land or livestock in rural areas in 1971 (75). Despite these many complicating issues, interesting, if highly tentative, differences in energy use patterns emerge for 33,467 urban households (16% of total population in 1981) with an average family size of 4.5 as opposed to the 131,000 rural households enumerated in 1981 (84% of the total population) with an average household of 6 members. It is concerning the interpretation of such differences that doubt arises given present trends toward increasing urban/rural interdependence. End-uses and Energy Sources. In a1l but the largest villages fuelwood is not purchased, but gathered by women and children (75). Wood, preferably in the form of dry dead-wood, is the clearly dominant energy source for a variety of interrelated end-uses including cooking, space-heating, l ighting, and beer-brewing (74). Women must divide their labour-time among fuelwood gathering and other reproductive tasks such as water collecting, cooking, and childcare and such productive tasks as beer-brewing and farming. A number of studies have high1 ighted the competing demands on women's time in Botswana (4,10,16,23,86,88). Fuelwood gathering would appear to rank high among the most time-consuming tasks (16). Twelve studies have been identified that comment on one or another aspect of rural energy end-use (8,17,52,55,59,74,90,97,118,121,125,126). Only five of these make estimates of household or per capita wood use per year. The resul ts are compared be1 ow. 1. The Rural Income Distribution Survey (55, p.219), assumes a minimum consumption datum of 240 headloads of fuelwood per year for a rural family of six and assumes an average headload weight ~f 19 kg. This implies a yearly per capita wood use of 1.06 m .
2. Working through the above caiculation with a more moderate 15 kg per headload (more in line with survey results in oSher parts of Africa), a yearly per capita wood use of 0.84 m is obtained. 3. In another part of the same Rural Income Distribution Survey (p. 66), actual consumption data for 72,000 households in "small villages" are summarized. Working backwards from the inputed cash value of wood gathered, again assuming 19 kg per headload, a yearly per capita wood use of 1.42 m is the result. It is interesting to note that in a careful study of wood consumption in Machakos District of Kenya - where agro-ecol ogy, sett1ement pattern, population density, and agro-technol ogy (domi nance of l ivestock, p1 oughi ng, beer-brewing) are simil ar to conditions in S J a1 l -vil l age Botswana and associated lands - a value of 1.5 m per capita per year emerged (87). 4. Once more, working through th? above, but assuming 15 kg per headload, the result is 1.12 m for each person annually. 5. One a ailable summary of estimates cites figures from 0.7 - 1.05 m Y per annum (118).
6. A very detailed and careful study at Molepolole of wood use of a3 family of nine persons suggested an annual wood use of 1.1 m per capita (90).
7. Another study in $he Kgalagadi settlement of Hukuntsi yielded a value of 1.25 m per capita per year (125). 8. 1.25 m' was a1 so assumed by Dr. Peter Owen in preparing estimates of wood use for Botswana's presentation to UNERG in 1981 (59).
9. A single study reports a wood use figure far outside the range of values 0.84 - 1.42 discussed so far. Working in southwestern Kgatleng, Jelenic and Van Vegten obtained a value of 0.42 m per capita per year. This is extraordinarily low, and it will be excluded from consideration in the following, especially as other doubts have been raised concerning this particular study (126).
Taking an average of the values judged plausible among the above, one miggt speak of an annual wood consumption in rural areas of 1.13 m per capita, with upper and lower31imits of 1.42 and 0.84, and a standard deviation of 0.18 m (although the observations are neither numerous nor really precise enough to warrant such statistical treatment). In fact, for purposes of national balance sheet calculations a value of 1.25 was chosen on the following basis: the highest value of 1.42 was observed in small village situations where one can assume accessibility to woody vegetation is better than in larger settlements, hence distance to the source is shorter and consumption higher (70). This factor is thought to more than compensate for the possibility that generally lower incomes in small er villages might depress wood consumption. Since in 1981 some 64% of Batswana lived in settlements smaller than 4,600 inhabitants (compare with 77% in 1971), it seemed reasonable to raise the average value of 1.13 somewhat, in the direction of the upper limit. For convenience, the figure 1.25 was selected as a reasonable compromise in the absence of further data since White had obtained such a figure and Owen hag used it. The selected value of 1.25 m per capita per year is somewhat lower than other values for Africa, for instance 1.31 for the Sudan, 1.59 for the Gambia (96), or 2.1 for Tanzania (114). A study of cgnsurnption in Kenya placed upper and lower limits at 2.4 and 1.1 m per capita per year (70). One of the reasons one might be inclined to accept a somewhat lower figure is that no charcoal is produced in Botswana (although a small amount is imported from South Africa for urban household use). As 75% of the calorific value of wood is lost in artisanal -scale earthern kilns producing charcoal, wood consumption is generally higher in regions of Africa (e.g. Tanzania, Zambia, Kenya) where a good deal of charcoal is produced. Indeed, in Eastern Africa charcoal production for the urban market is a major rural non-farm income activity of the poorer households in semi-arid areas. The counterpart of this activity in Botswana is beer-brewing, a much less wasteful process from the point of view of wood consumption. As the prevalence of beer-brewing as well as dependence on wage remittances, casual wage labour income, and stress sales of livestock might suggest, rural Botswana possesses a well-monetized economy. Although quantitative data do not exist, some estimates of purchased energy sources bear this point out. The 1981 census included two energy-related questions of great potential value to planners: source of energy for cooking and source for lighting. Only pilot results for Chobe District were available when material for this study was being compiled (52). These suggested that for cooking in settlements smaller than 4,999 inhabitants (in Chobe, at least) 92.8% of households used wood, 2.8% bottled gas, 2.5% kerosene, 1.8% electricity, and 0.15% coal. In settlements from 1,000 - 4,999 persons in Chobe, 88% cooked with wood and 4% purchased kerosene for cooking. These figures are roughly in line with preliminary results of a survey in Kweneng conducted by the Botswana Renewable Energy Technologies project (8). In the village of Ditshegwane (200 households), 98% cooked with wood and 4% cooked with kerosene. Major differences also emerge from comparing these two sets of preliminary results. In Chobe villages of 1,000 - 4,999 inhabitants, 6% of households reported using bottled gas for cooking, while in the similarly-sized village of Kweneng, none mentioned gas. Meanwhile, in the Kweneng study, 31% mentioned using dung for cooking, especially in the brewing of beer, and 3% mentioned using agricultural residue (maize cobs). These last mentioned fuel sources either did not emerge from the Choba data or were buried in a tiny "other" category. This all leads one to conclude that a good deal of variation in the use of non-wood fuel sources could exist in rural Botswana, but careful analysis of the full results of the 1981 census and the BRET study would be required to reveal such variation. Results in Chobe for household lighting are a1 so interesting. For the district as a whole, 39% of households used kerosene, 35% candles, and 2.8% electricity. It is significant that 13% only mentioned wood as fuel for lighting. In the settlement size class 1,000 - 4,999, 39% used kerosene, 50% used candles, and 3.4% used electricity. Only 8% claimed to use only wood for illumination. The corresponding figures for the Kweneng village of the same size class were 51% kerosene, 47% candles, and no mention of electricity. National energy balance sheet calculations (see Table 2.5) have tried to construct estimates for the amount of energy consumed in cooking and lighting from such sources as kerosene, electricity, bottled gas, dung, and crop residues. Explanatory notes give the methods of approximation and assumptions made. This has only been done to give a notion of the relative magni tude of such sources in relation to wood, and only underscores the need for careful village studies (one thorough study in each size category of village in each agro-ecological zone should suffice (99,891 by its ad hoc and necessarily inaccurate nature). Perhaps it is worth noting, however, that non-wood energy sources for domestic end-uses in rural areas seem to account for only 8% of the energy consumed. The rest comes from wood. In summary, rural household demand accounted for 42% of all the energy consumed nationally in 1980. Ninety-two per cent of this rural household use involved in one way or another unlocking the energy stored in wood.
Urban Household Demand.
Characterization of the households. Many of the caveats introducedconcerning the definition of rural households apply to the urban case, but will not be repeated. The 1981 census enumerates 33,467 urban households (16% of the total population) in Gaborone, Francistown, Lobatse, Selebi-Phikwe, Orapa, and Jwaneng. Some aggregate data on urban energy consumption is available in documents of the Botswana Power Corporation (5,6) and Botswana Technology Centre (76,77), but the only detailed attempts at an urban consumption study are the urban Poverty Datum Line study of 1974/75 (54) and the Household Expenditure Survey of 1978/79 (50). The Poverty Datum Line (PDL) study was a follow-up to the Rural Income Di stribution ---'Survey a1 ready discussed. The PDL attempted to fix minimum level S of corisumption consistent with "basic physical health and social decency" (p. 2) for the following: 1. Food
2. Clothing
3. Fuel and Lighting
4. Personal Care and Health
5. Rep1 acement of Household Goods
6. Housing
7. Education
8. Transport
9. Taxation
In making these various estimates of minimum requirements (first in physical quantities, then in money terms), the p1 anners did not focus exclusively on the "average" household of 4.5 persons (1981), but looked as well at a range of urban household configurations. These varied from a household constituted by a single male, 18-54 years 01 d, through a femal e-headed household of seven persons, to a household of ten. In a1l, ten combinations were used for the basis of calculations (p. 3). The later Household Expenditure Survey (HES) is reasonably compatible with the PDL since the former studied the actual consumption levels of a sample of 915 urban households in Gaborone, Francistown, Selebi-Phikwe, and Lobatse using weekly and monthly questionnaires for the year beginning in September of 1978. The sample was stratified according to housing standard, associated with the following monthly expenditures per household:
TABLE 2.2
Urban Month1 y Expendi ture/Househol d
High-cost & highlmedium cost housing ....P670 Medium-cost housing ...... 232
Low-cost housing & SHHA ...... 135
Traditional & periurban housing ...... 98
Domestic servants' quarters ...... 64
Source: HES At P135 per month for an average family of five in low-cost housing, this category in the HES is roughly equivalent to the family of five used in the PDL calculations four years earlier. Their average monthly income (for the four towns) was P109. Allowing for four years of inflation, the HES figure of 135 is too low, but rough1y equivalent. End-Uses and Energy Sources. Wood remains the predominant source of energy for cooking and space heating in urban areas, accounting for 83% of energy serving this end-use. Data on urban wood consumption is even sketchier than for rural consumption. The 1934/75 urban PDL suggests a per capita annual wood use of 0.27 m costing P96 a year per household, assuming a cost per kg of wood of PO.l. Given the rural/urban interdependence noted in many studies, one might assume that urban dwelless were able to "arrange" in various ways an adgitional 0.27 m , bringing the annual consumption up to 0.54 m or very near what one F.A.O. advisor has cited as an average urban African wood consumption figure (0.56) (112). Since 1974/75, however, wood prices in urban areas have probably doubled. A1 though urban cooking patterns do change to accommodate to l imited fuel ,a certain minimum amount of energy is needed for cooking. Demand is fairly inelastic. Thus the level of consumption suggested by the HES some3four years later, a per capita annual consumption of only 0.04 m , cannot reflect actual use. If one be1 ieves the HES figures, and the equivalent low-cost housing household spent in 1978/79 only P30 on fuelwood, purchasing only 150 kg of wood for a family of five, then one or both of two hypotheses need to be tested as a high priority:
1. The trend toward increasing rural/urban interdependence has picked up some, but probably not all of the difference between the amount of wood purchased and that required.
2. Urban households, at least those l ow-income ones, have actually undergone an increasing energy poverty as they have been forced to real locate l imi ted income among inflating subsistence costs (for food, blankets, clothing, furniture, and fuel) over the last eight years.
Assuming that both hypotheses are correct, one might assume for the sake of illustration that poor urban households are purchasing 150 kg of wood and "arranging" another 600 kg, making a total of 760 (representing a significant decJine since 1974/75), or a per capita annual consumption of 0.21 m . For urban households with a higher income the situation is somewhat eased by the use of non-wood energy sources for cooking. The PDL and HES together allow an estimate that 0.086 PJ of energy is consumed by urban households in the form of refined petroleum products (kerosene and LPG). BPC statistics a1 low an estimate of 0.086 PJ electrical energy consumed by urban households (6). Finally, it has been estimated by consultants to the Botswana Technology Centre that some 800 tonnes of coal is marketed for domestic use in urban areas annually, while another 2,000 tonnes is sold by the BPC to its urban employees (77). This urban household coal consumption comes to something like 0.07 PJ annuall y. It is impossible with existing data to differentiate sources for lighting from those for cooking and heating. It can only be said that electricity, kerosene, and candles all seem to have a role in urban households, and that further study is needed. A Reflection: semi-6rol etarianizatior~and inergy Poverty. It has been noted that Botswana is underqoinq one of the hiqhest rates of urbanization in the world. ~t the same time evidence exists of continuing, even increasing, social and economic integration of family activities across the urban/rural boundary. The evidence suggests a complex situation. On the one hand, maldistribution of the means of increasing rural productivity has been influential in forcing large numbers of people into the towns to seek work. On the other, continuing links with the rural areas may be reducing the burden of inflating basic needs costs for town-dwellers. Under present incomes, industrialization, and rural development p01 icies, it is hard to see either rerni ttances from urban workers pulling up productivity for the mass of small farmers (as some have argued) for the rural "safety net" to continue for long to forestall absolute poverty for an increasing number of urban squatters and "working poor." This is a clear instance where energy planning must face squarely macro-economic and other p01 icy constraints.
Agri cul tural Energy Demand.
Agriculture in Botswana, both large and smal l-scale, arable and livestock, accounts for one per cent of all the energy consumed annuall y by the nation (0.265 PJ). This is a very conservative minimum figure, since only diesel used in running tractors and in private boreholes has been taken into account. Thus, agriculture uses 7% of all the diesel imported, amounting to 5% of all the imported refined petroleum products. Five per cent is rather low for agriculture's share of refined petroleum products. (Kenyan agriculture is estimated to consume 9%). The difference is most likely accounted for by the great dependency of Botswana's agriculture on water pumped by thousands of small diesel units from deep boreholes, which have been accounted for el sewhere as they al so provide domestic water. The structure of Botswana's agri cul ture is stark7 y dual istic. From the point of view of tenure, 360 privately owned "commercial" farms (0.4% of all farms) account for 16% of the livestock, 6% of hectares cultivated (producing all but 5% of the two main cash crops, groundnuts and sunflowers, and consumed the lion's share of some ten million Pula's worth of imported means of production annually (e.g. fertilizer, tractors, etc.) (42,43,47). Some 80,000 farms are held under traditional tenure. These produce mainly sorghum, maize, millet, beans, and pulses with few inputs and low yields and raise livestock herds characterized by low rates of off-take and high mortality (42,43,80,81,82). Within the traditional farm sector there is a further differentiation between the mass of very small farmers and relatively few larger ones. In 1974/75, 45% of rural households owned -no cattle and 66% owned ten or less, arguably the minimum herd required for adequate ploughing (13). In 1980 some forty-five per cent of traditional crop farms gained access to draft power through hire, borrowing, or Mafisa arrangements (81). The thirty per cent of roughly 70,000 traditional crop farms larger than 5ha cultivate 63% of the l and. Seven per cent of traditional crop farms are larger than ten hectares, but they account for 30% of the cultivated land (42). The 49,400 traditional crop farms (71%) smaller than five hectares are highly drought prone (20) and also tend to lack herds large enough to allow significant sale of livestock during drought - the only major a1 ternative to dependence on direct or remitted wage income or famine relief (122). Female-headed households (FHH) tend to fall into this category of the poorest farm units. A number of studies (results summarized in Table 2.3) show that the FHH's have access to fewer cattle for ploughing, own fewer animals, plant smaller areas, and use fewer inputs or improved techniques. Since these same women are also the main end-users and providers of domestic energy, they must be identified as a group whose families are at high risk of energy poverty within the general energy system, due to intense, competing demands on women's labour time and disposable i ncome. From an energy point of view the problems of Botswana's agriculture are maldistribution and dependency. In horsepower terms, the potenti a1 draftpower of the traditional sector's 266,630 oxen is an enormous 429 PJ a year (assuming 100 days/yr and 8 hr/day). This is roughly equivalent to the calorific value of the annual net production of fl of Botswana's woody vegetation. Yet the distribution of this potenti a1 energy source precludes its useful application, and the adoption of improved ploughs and other traction devices to make the most of this draftpower is limited by the lack of contact of extension agents with the poorest farm households (especially the FHH) and the understandable risk-aversion behaviour of the poor. Dependency is signal led by the amount of imported diesel used for pumping the water necessary to sustain many of the TABLE 2 3
Summary of Some Research Flndlngi on Women in Agriculture ~n the Eastern Conlrnunal Area
Study Survey Year of Number of Percent Percent Average Average Percent Percent Percent Average Averag area Pub- House- Female FHH wl th FHH HHH FHH WI th FHH FHH Acreage Acreag llcdtion holds Headed no Cattle Cattle nu small Ploughing Uslng FHH MHH House- cattle Hold~ng Hol d~ng stock Tractor h01 di (FHH)
Edlng and Sekyama Kweneog 1972 2398 21 57 4 2 7 2 30%~ 84
Edlng, Udo Sekgoma Manyana 1972 279 33 64 34 73
Syson Shoshong 1972 238 20 50
Syson Shoshong 1973 229 21 54 zb
Band Kgatleng 1974 204 42 53 Kweneng Southern
FAO Eastern 1974 954 30 73 5 6 23 5 47 66 Communal Areas
Kerven Tsamaya 1976 38 53 5 25 Vlllage NE Dlstnct
Brown Kgatleng 1978 215 39 S0 lzzard Oodi 1979 61' 43d 43d Ramoutswa Kanye
KOSSOU~JI Ndtlonal 1979 1060 43 ~407~ P154if 5 4g 15 qh and Muel ler
Slngh and Nat~onal 1980 1802 32 1 53 1 Kelly
Water Eastern 1981 355 25 5 7 Polnts Communal Survey Area
W1 kao Letlhakeng 1981 160 43 70' 9oJ Tu turne 160 43 32' 59'
Source (23)
(a1 Goats (bl Has nu cattle post (cl All female headed households (dl OwnIng no Iweitock (ei Value of Cattle owned by female headed, no illale present household (see foutootp 5) (f 1 Value of cattle owned by male headed male present h~iuseholds(zee footnote 5) (9) Female headed no male present households (h1 Male headed male present households (11 % Absent worker FHH wlth 5 or fewer cattle (JI % Non-absent worker FHH with 5 or fewer cattle (l1 Absent worker FHH (1 i Non-absent worker FHH nation's livestock during the dry season. Such a vital function should not be externally-dependent, and present work in Botswana on wind, solar, and draft-powered a1 ternatives to diesel pumping is a step in the right direction, but one needing strong support and encouragement (see below).
-.Industri a1 Energy Demand. Industry in Botswana consumes 38% of all energy used in the nation annually (11.1 PJ). Its share of coal energy consumption is 99%. Its share of electricity is 88%, and its share of energy from refined petroleum sources is 12%. Forty per cent of the energy used in industry is used in mining and quarrying. Thirty per cent of this is consumed as electricity by the copper/nickel mining and smelting operations at Selebi-Phikwe. This use of electricity by BCL at Selebi-Phikwe constitutes 58% of all electricity consumed in the country. The chief use of refined petroleum products by the mining sector is for autoproduction of electricity using diesel generators outside the BPC grid. Coal for smelting, accounts for 28% of all industrial energy use. Electricity generation (by the BPC) constitutes an industrial sector by itself. It consumes 61% of all coal energy, 4% of energy from refined petroleum, and 6% of all electricity. This sector uses 52% of industrial PJs. Four per cent of industrial energy use is accounted for by manufacturing, with 60% of this being consumed by BMC's abattoir and canning operations at Lobatse in the form of electricity purchased from BPC, graded coal for heat, refined petroleum products, and coal for autoproduction of more electricity. Breweries and other food processing industries are the next largest consumers of industrial energy used in manufacturing with roughly one per cent (0.079 PJ). Large-scale brewing (three operations) account for 82% of this. Some twenty bakeries, canning, bottling, and other processing operations make up the rest. The largest of these is Corn Products, of Lobatse, with an investment of P3.7 million out of a total of P7.8 million for the twenty (average investment =P390,000, S.D. P810,OOO) (46). Cement and brick works consume slightly less than one-ha1 f of a per cent of manufacturing energy, mostly as coal for curing. Metal working and other miscellaneous manufacturing rounds out the pattern of energy use in manufacturing with about one per cent of the total. Finally, construction is the remaining industrial subsector to be considered. Its energy use must be underestimated given available data, since only its direct consumption of imported refined petroleum products is considered. On this basis it uses less than 1% of the total industrial energy. Of course, its share of transportation energy (accounted for separately below) as well as of electricity (not available from BPC) must be acknowledged. In the final analysis, five industrial enterprises consume 95% of a1 l industrial energy. (See Table 2.4).
Commercial /Institutional Energy Demand.
Commercial/institutional end-uses account for 2% of national energy consumption (0.675 PJ). This energy not only includes the electrici ty and refined petroleum used by restaurants, hotel S, shops, and offices, but the electricity purchased from the BPC by municipalities for water pumping (9.6 GWh in 1980, or 0.035 PJ), and above all, the diesel used by District Councils for water pumping in rural areas and by the Electrical Engineering Department of the MMRWA for generating electricity with some 186 small diesel sets at numerous is01ated government institutions (school S, hospital S, government centers). Using 15% of the nation's refined petroleum products, these predominant1 y institutional uses are moderate1y high by the standards of other African countries. A major factor explaining this is the diesel used by MMRWA and District Councils in running boreholes (0.370 PJ yearly). This water pumping activity in rural areas is additional to the water lifted electrically by municipalities and that l ifted from diesel-powered boreholes by the central GOB (0.154 PJ) and that lifted from boreholes maintained by commercial and l arger traditional farmers (0.258 PJ). A1 though the use of diesel for water pumping for humans and l ivestock is divided into two demand categories, "agriculture" and "institutional", it is important to note its total magnitude, 0.628 PJ. This means that 17% of the nation's diesel is going for borehole pumping, 11% of all refined petroleum products, and 2% of all the energy consumed nationally in 1980. This amount of energy is slightly more than the total consumed by all urban dwel l ers. A final point concerning institutional demand, is that present arrangements whereby the Electrical Engineering Department and Central Transport Organization provide fuel to a variety of institutions under a variety of jurisdictions, does not encourage careful accounting of fuel use by the end-users nor fuel conservation consciousness.
Transportation Energy Demand.--
Transportation is a sector whose consumption is difficult to estimate from avail able statistics. Rail transport is the only straightforward subsector as good data exist on its diesel engine efficiencies and gross tonne- kilometers transported. Air transport is difficult because avgas is reported together with gasoline and jet turbo with kerosene. Here a proportion of figures for Kenya was used, employing a l inear relation between the numbers of passengers and the amount of fuel used. For road transport, one really only knows that there were in 1980 17,977 passenger vehicles and 7,425 freight vehicles. TABLE 2.4
Major Industrial Energy Users
k Name Location UseIYr % Total
Botswana Power Corporation Gaberone & 5.8PJ 52 Selebi-Phi kwe
Barnangwato Concessions Selebi-Phikwe 4.1PJ 37
OrapaILetl hekane Diamonds Orapa 0.3Pt1 3
Botswana Meat Corporation Lobatse 0.3PJ 3
Morupule Col l iery Serowel Pal apye O.02Pd 0.2 Rail Transport Demand. Assuming a diesel locomotive consumption of 0.004 l /tonne/km (65) and taking the figure of 3,000m t/km from the 1980 transport statistics (64), a diesel consumption of 12 million liters is obtained. That is 0.46 PJ. Air Transport Demand. Botswana served 16.84% as many passengers as Kenya in 1980. If such a direct relationship holds at all, then Botswana's air transport energy demand for that year should have been 1.48 PJ. Even if this figure were close to the truth, interpretation would be a problem since many of the scheduled flights in and out of Botswana are by foreign airlines that take on fuel in Botswana. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the only source that breaks down petroleum products to include avgas and jet turbo report quantities equivalent to only 0.1 P3 (64. ) A compromise estimate has been adopted apportioning the difference between high and low estimates for road transport to the Air Transport Sector, yielding 0.413 PJ. Road Transport Demand. By exclusion, taking the lower figure for air transport above, one is left with 3.523 PJ for road transport. Using the Kenyan proportions, however, one calculates a road energy demand in 1980 of 2.554 PJ. Taking the fuel consumption performance of GOB'S government fleet as indicative for all vehicles, one gets between 3.20 - 3.22 PJ. This middle estimate, 3.21 PJ, has been adopted, but clearly more work is necessary to clarify this important energy demand sector. Taking the middle estimate for road transport, the adjusted estimate for air, and the direct calculation of rail transport's energy use, the resul ting profile is reasonably typical for Africa. Transport generally accounts for 14% of national energy consumption (compare Kenya where transport also has 14% of final consumption (103) ) . Road transport is the dominant subsector, accounting for 56% of refined petroleum and 11% of total national energy. Next comes rail with 8% of refined petroleum and less than one per cent of national final consumption. Air (the most doubtful estimate) seems to account for 7% of refined petroleum. Sectoral demand is summerized in Table 2.5.
Total Demand.--
Table 2.6 summarizes the total final consumption of energy in Botswana for 1980. Table 2.7 breaks down final consumption by energy source. Table 2.8 gives the detailed summary by sector and source. Wood emerges as the predominant national energy source. If one considers internally-oriented, rural consumption (roughly 16.2 P3 of the nation's total 28.9 PJ), wood has an even more predominant position at 72% of the energy consumed. Finally, Table 2.9 translates final consumption into current primary resource requirement. TABLE 2.5
"1980" End-Use Requirements
% of HHs with End-Use Fuel End-Use & Fuel Use per HH (GJ)
Household Cook~ng& Wood 84% 85.76 (n) Space Heat1ng
Residue 72%") 4.29(0°)
Dung 6%(~) 42.88(~~)
Kerosene 2.5% 7
Lighting Kerosene 50%'~) 0.3159
Electr~city 0.2%(') 0.0004
Candles 33~(~) 24 candles
Household Cooking & Wood 16% 12 0 Space Heating
Charcoal n11(~' nil (ti
Electricity 7%(') 7(v)
Kerosene 16% ?(W)
Coal 3.3% 12 2
LPG 7% 1.04
Lighting Kerosene 16% 1.75
Candles 16% 120 candles Total National Sector Subsector End-Use Fuel Congymption (10 Joules) (or other unit)
Agriculture Large Boreh~les Diesel (X) 0.188 PJ Traction Diesel 0.0069 PJ Oxen 80,770 oxen (5129.6 PJ) ("' Small Boreholes Diesel (" 0.070 PJ Traction Oxen 266,630 oxen (=429.1 PJ) ("'
Industry Electrici ty Refined Petro 0 239 Generation (BPC) Coal 5.471 Electricity 0.1 Wood nil Charcoal nil
Mining & Quarrying
BCL(~) Refined Petro 12,791 GJ Coal 3 061 Electrici tv 0 999 Wood nil Charcoal nil
Orapa/ Refined Petro 7,646 GJ Let1 hekane Di amonds Coal nil Electric1 ty 0.313 Wood nil Charcoal nil
Merupule Refined Petro 12,895 GJ Col1 iery Coal nil Electric1 ty 0.009 Wood (as material, e.g. pit props) Charcoal nil
Total National Sector Subiector Fuel Consumption
Quarries Refined Petro nil Coal nil Electrici tv 0.001 Wood (7 as material) Charcoal nil
Manufacturi (Food) BMC PP) Refined Petro a.904 GJ Coal 250,000 GJ Electrici ty 0.029 Wood nil Charcoal nil
Breweries Refined Petro nil Coal Electricity Wood nil Charcoal nil
Other Food Refined Petro nil Coal nil Electricity 0.014 Wood nil Charcoal nil
(Cernent/Brick) Refined Petro nil Coal 50,000 GJ Eiectr~city 0.003 Wood (? as material ) Charcoal nil Total National :tor Subsector Fuel Consumption
(Metal Products) Refined Petro nil
Coal nil
Electricity 0.008
Wood (? as material)
Charcoal nil
(Other Refined Petro 12,983 GJ Manufacturing: Textile, Wood Coal nil Products, Chemicals,etc) Electrici ty 0.042
Wood (as material)
Charcoal nil
Construction Refined Petro 86,728 GJ
Coal nil
Electric1ty nil
Wood (as material )
Charcoal nil mmercial/ Refined Petro 0.559 PJ stitutional Coal nil
Electric1ty 0.035
Wood nil
Charcoal nil
ansportation
ad Number Passenger Vehicles: 17,977 (t 885 motorcycles) Number Freight Vehicles. 7,425
11 Total National Consumption, Diesel : 464,400 GJ
r Jet Fuel & Av.Gas not recorded separately. See control totals for "gasoline" and "kerosene"
) See text for method used to calculate this figure. ) It was assumed that all rural dwellers except those living in major villages make some use of residues, especial ly maize cobs and small-grain stalks. o) Assumed consumption = 5% of rural household wood consumption level. ) Calculated by use of 1971 population distribution map (51) and assumptions explained in the text. p) Assumed consumption = 50% of rural household wood consumption levels in these very highly deforested areas and also allowins for more qeneral use for some specialized end-uses such as beer brewing. /r/s) From preliminary 1981 population census data (Chobe District) (52). ) Some small amount of imported charcoal used by urban middle class. ) Estimated from BPC data and their tar~ffs(6). )(W) One cannot separate cooking from lighting in the data available. ) Total national borehole diesel use (incl. central gov't) = 0.628 PJ X) Assuming 300 days a year. Ba~nangwato Concessions Ltd. (Copper-nickel ) Botswana Meat Corporation. TABLE 2.6
Final Consumption By Sector
Sector PJ Per Cent
Urban HH 0.632 Rural HH 12.188 Indus try 11.095 Commercial /Insti tutional 0.675 Transport 4.083 Agri cul ture 0.265
28.938 99.9 (rounded to 100.0)
Table 2.7 Breaks Final Consumption Down By Energy Source.
TABLE 2.7
Final Consumption By Fuel
Source Per Cent
Wood Coal Refined Petro Electricity Crop Resi dues Dung
100.1 (rounded to 100.0)
Table 2.8 Gives The Detailed Summary By Sector and Source Final Consumption
Refined El ec- Sector Coal Petro Fuel wood Charcoal tri city Dung Residue Other (Units) (PJ) (PJ) (PJ (PJ (PJ) (PJ) (PJ)
Urban HH 0.068 0.078 0.4 nil 0.086 0 0 0
Rural HH 0 0.021 11.235 nil nil 0.423 0.509 0
Industry 8.881 0.681 nil nil 0.553 0 ? 0
Comnlerci a1 / Institution ni1 + 0.559 nil nil 0.116 0 0 0
Transportation 0 4.083 0 0 0 0 0 0
Agricul ture 0 0.265 0 0 0 ?++ ?++ ?
+ Hotels, restaurants, and hospitals use a small amount of coal, but this amount 18 unknown and is absorbed herein under the categories "industry" and "urban household".
++ There are material, non-energy, uses by agriculture in maintenance of soil fertility and structure and in livestock feeding, but no attempt was made to quantify them even though they have great indirect energy flow imp1 ications. TABLE 2.9 Primary Resource Requirement
Refined Supply Source Coal Crude Petro Wood (Units) (PJ (PJ (PJ)
Indigenous 8.533* 0 N A 11.635
Imports 0.466* 0 5.687 Nil ** Exports 0 0 0 Nil **
* Indigenous coal can be taken to have a calorific value of 23 GJ/t (77). South African coal varies from Wi tbank-Middleburg 'S 25 GJ/t to Natal anthracite's 33 GJ/t. Wankie coal (Zimbabwe) has values in the low 30s. 30 GJ/t was taken as an average for imported coal (77). ** P27,209 worth of fuelwood was imported in 1980 according to (49). Otherwise, all imports and exports of wood concerned timber for carpentry or other wood industries. Imports far outweighed exports. BIOMASS SUPPLY
Natural Woody Vegetation.
Using a series of maps of land use, agro-ecology, and vegetation (27,28,39,66) over1aid with a grid, Botswana was apportioned into a series of biomass production regions. The results are presented in Table 2.10, where the following definitions are of importance:
1. "High potential" is land of arable quality;
2. "Medi um potenti a1 " iS better qual i ty rangel and;
3. "Low potential" is semi-arid savanna capable only of extensive grazing, gathering of bush products, hunting, and preservation of wil dl ife.
Estimates of standing woody biomass (stock) and annual net production (yield) were culled from the scanty literature. Of the eight studies commenting in relevant ways on Botswana's vegetation (44,68,90,115,117,120,121,125),only three contained empirically-based estimates of growth rates: Henry on the natural forest in Chobe (W), Nickerson for eucalyptus p1 antations and for medium and high potential zones (eastern hard and sand velds) (go), and White for low potential areas (125). These figures were found to correspond roughly to ones derived in similar agro-ecological zones in Kenya (123). Of course, the gigantic sum of 400 PJ of wood energy is not accessible to the people of Botswana. 80% of the population lives in the 15% of national territory in the east along the l ine of rail. A rough assessment of actual pressure on woody biomass is supplied if one makes the simplifying assumption that the 15% of Botswana which is densely settled contains all of the high and medium potential land (13.8% of national arerand another 1.2% of low poteniial land. Biomass yield on such an area would be 11.6 million m (133 PJ) compared to a demand by rural hoyseholds in 1980 (80% of total rural demand) of 0.98 million m (11.24 PJ). Thus supply would appear to exceed demand twelve-fold. When one takes into consideration the concentrated settlement in the east in major and smaller villages and the selective preferences for such species as Conbretum apiculatum (121), it is understandable that signs of pressure have already begun to appear despite the large theoretical margin between supply and demand. These signs of localized pressure include increasing distances women have to go to fetch wood and complaints they make about it (16,74,97), decrease in the density of preferred species (121), rapid increases in the price of fuelwood where it is sold (55,101,31), expansion of the zones within which firewood is sold (31,97), deforestation in the zone surrounding some of the recently-establi shed sett1ements in the TABLE 2.10
Natural * Woody Bi omass Supply+
-
Zone Forest High Potenti a1 Med Potenti a1 Low Potenti a1 (Desert Water) TOTALS
Area (106 HA)** 0.962 3.3047 4.6406 48.137 0.4906 0.0258 57.561
Percent 1.6 5.7 8.1 83.7 0.9 nil 100
Stock (106 M~) 76 165-208 186-255 1107-2214 ------1534-2753
Stock (PJ)*** 869 1886-2377 2126-2914 12651-25303 ------17532-31463
Yield (106 Per yr) 0.1 5.3 6.0 23.6 ------34.4 Yield (PJ)*** 1.1 60.6 68.6 269.7 ------400
* Much of the vegetation in the high and medium potential zones is strictly speaking not natural but anthropogenic due to long-established use of fire and selective felling of trees (121). 2 2 ** Estimates of natural territory exist coverning the range of 560,000-582,000 km . 575,000 km has been employed here (117), but does not imply a judgement on the issue of territorial size. 3 *** Calculated using 1.4 m = 1 tonne of wood, and 1 t wood = 16 GJ.
+ "Industrial" supply is very small, as there are only 430 ha. of Eucalyptus plantations at 14 sites. west (37), the reliance on dung and crop residues for fuel in the extreme south (Baralong farms and the southwestern border area) (38) and in the hinterland of Francistown, Molepolole, and other major villages (37), and, finally, the cutting of live trees (31). A more conservative estimate is obtained by defining as reasonably accessible only the woody biomass within 50 km of the line of rail on either side, excluding foreign territory (although in fact some wood undoubtedly crosses these frontiers). This would include a1l major rural settlements except Maun and Bgbonong. In such an arga, assuming an average yield of 1.3 m /ha/yr, 5.85 million m would be avail able (only half of the higher estimate), and supply would exceed demand on1y sixfold. At the moment fuelwood is not available from the natural forests, most of which are in government reserved areas. However, under the terms of commerci a1 exploitation agreements under consideration, some fuelwood may in future be provided to urban areas from these forests as we1 l as logs of commercial value (47). Fuelwood from the zones of reasonable access are provided by women and children for the most part, with self-employed donkey and ox-carters delivering some wood to people in large villages for a price. Urban supplies are delivered by donkey cart, ox cart, and motor vehicles of various kinds. There is a well-developed market for wood in urban areas, and this needs to be studied in depth as well as ways in which the market is supplemented by non-commercial acquisitions made by urban dwellers.
Industrial Woodlots.
Industrial production of softwoods is in its infancy. Pub1 ic and private woodlots for the provision of fuel and building poles are strongly encouraged in a forestry policy statement issued by the MOA in 1979 (40). By mid-1982 there were approximately 430 ha of predominantly eucalyptus woodlot in fourteen sites.* The largest of these are the very old government plantations in the southeast at Kanye (138 ha, begun in 1948) and the Kweneng Rural Development Association's p1 antations in the capital 'S hinterland at Molepolol e (approximate1y 100 ha, begun in 1974). New urban woodlots are planned in Lobatse (partially funded by BMC) and for the new diamond-mining town of Jwaneng (funded by DeBeers).**
* 327.9 ha in 13 sites are listed in the MOA's Inventory dated the 9th June 1982, but this omits the KRDA plantations with an area of about 100 ha. Also, the total does not include eight ha of seedling nursery in eight sites (33).
** MOA gives the Jwaneng plan as 50 ha a year for five years beginning in 1982. However, in a memo from the Office of the District Commissioner, Tsabong, dated the 7th May 1981, it is estimated that 1,012 ha would be required in 1.982, increasing to 1,884 ha in 1992 (33,30). Also planned are two projects funded under USAID" Rural Sector Grant to develop woodlots in isolated rural areas suffering from desertification, and, in a similar way, some of the drought relief funds available in the recent past have been used for reafforestation in the context of "labour -intensive works" schemes. A1 though the idea of localized communi ty woodlots and concern with local degeneration of the environment around major villages has been around since at least the early 19701s, serious implementation is only just beginning. Trained personnel are very scarce. Both the Serowe Brigades and the KRDA have been producing junior grade foresters for sometime, but senior forestry personnel number no more than three in the entire country.* Implementation has also been hampered, in the opinion of some, by a cumbersome project funding process (under AElO/AE15), difficulty in obtaining forestry extension personnel, and unavailability of funds for local labour costs. Concerning the last-mentioned, there are clearly point,s to be made on both sides of the debate, but it may be well to reevaluate this policy in view of the fact that Botswana are long-used to a highly monetized economy, depending to a large degree on wage remittances and casual l abour, especi a1l y in the smal l er villages. Complaints that voluntary labour is hard to mobil ize and sustain for communi ty woodlot projects should be evaluated alongside the fact that 70% of the adult population of Ditshegwane (a small village of 200 households), registered, many of them women, when a wage of P1.50 per day was recently offered for labour-intensive drought relief work. In another Kweneng village, Let1hakeng, more than five hundred people from a population of 4,000 turned up on the first day of registration for similar employment on projects constructing dams, hafirs, and improving roads (32). On the technical side, there appears to be a difference of opinion among experts working in Botswana concerning the best species composition for woodlots. Eucalyptus monocropping has been criticized (74), but it has quite sensibly been countered that as little is known about the ecological effects of alternative species, and that, the present small areas of eucalyptus (unli ke the very large p1 antations in countries like Swaziland) provide an opportunity to get the facts straight by careful observations without danger of widespread environmental damage (126).
* The situation will be somewhat relieved when trainees studying in Tanzania, Kenya, and UK return. It should be noted that the KRDA has been keeping detailed records of the progress of a large number of different eucalyptus as well as a large number of possible alternative fodder/shade/shelter/firewood species* since 1974. Their records include data on the cost-effectiveness of various management regimes and generally serve as a good starting point for a carefull y p1 anned expansion of wood1 ot activities. However, much more work is needed on woodlot programmes and non-fuel wood-uses, of which fencing and house construction are particularly important.
Major Biomass Supply Issues.
1. The overall relationships among food production (for consumption and export), environmental degradation (overgrazing and uncontrolled fire (104)), and biomass supply must be worked out and policy implications drawn.
2. Local i zed environmental effects and the pressure on preferred fuel types and species must be investigated, especially in the light of the very high rate of growth of major villages (growing, it should be remembered, faster than most towns) and the shift toward permanent settlement of the "lands" associated with major villages (105).
3. A working party should sort out the advantages and disadvantages of substituting coal for wood in a variety of urban and rural domestic and other end-uses. Various opinions have been voiced concerning the possible use of coal in Jwaneng (30) and concerning a number of options including producer gas (77), but no thorough studies of the acceptability of coal have been undertaken. One study suggests that urban dwellers are willing to pay a 35% premium for wood (with which they are famil iar) over coal (which is new to them), but the subject requires further study (17).
4. Urban and major village biomass distribution needs to be understood in its complexities if the consequences of government policies and investments are to be predicted. Interesting local government initiatives exist such as a
* Pepper trees (Schinus molle), Syringa (Melia azederach), Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), Mesqui te (Proso is
julifora), and 01 d man sal tbush (Atriplex ..-pnuinmd- seemed promising according to early reports (78). District tax on fuelwood leaving Kweneng for the Gaborone market by truck, ox and donkey-cart. The effects of such taxes on the market is unknown. Non-market distribution of biomass in urban areas is likely to be complex due to pressure on urban incomes discussed earlier and evidence of persistent (possibly increasing) interdependence between members of poor households in rural and urban environments. The importance of non-market distribution is highlighted by the effect of land clearance for Gaborone's new airport. The site -clearance has stockpiled possibly two-years ' urban fuelwood supply, and bicycle and donkey-cart loads can be seen leaving the area daily. The airport site would make a good logical beginning for a systematic study of urban non-commercial distribution.
5. Above all, coordination among the major government bodies concerned with biomass supply is needed. These would include the MOA, MMRWA, MLGL, and MFDP. Given the present distribution of technical expertise and responsibilities it should perhaps not be taken as axiomatic that such coordination be dynamized by the Ministry of Agriculture a1 one.
Conventional and New Suppl ies
Conventional Supply.
Coal Supply. Botswana's reserves of coal have been estimated at between 16 and 17 billion tonnes (77,59), with 3.6 billion tonnes economical l y recoverable (77). It has arguably the second largest coal reserve in Africa (77). The location of Botswana's major coal fields are shown in Figure 2.4, and the characteristics of the fields are given in Table 2.11. The raw coal is broken into pieces smaller than 32 mm and then, without any further preparation (e.g. washing or grading), shipped by railway to the copper/nickel smelters at Selebi-Phi kwe and to the power stations at Selebi-Phikwe and Gaborone. Figure 2.5 shows the coal distribution network. About a third of the coal goes to the smelters (36%), and the rest to the power stations. Some 800 tonnes of imported coal are consumed by urban dwellers annually (76) plus some 2,000 - 4,000 tonnes of domestic coal (77). Imported coal is, for the most part, used in industrial operations that call for graded coal. The greatest user is the Botswana Meat Commission which imports at least 10,000 tonnes annually for its boilers. Botswana's breweries also fall into this class of user, as does the brick and cement industrial sub-sector, dry cleaners, some hotels, and some FIGURE 2.4
..-COAL . - FIELDS IN BOTSWANA.- -.-. - -.
\ \ L/----- ANGOLA - - -,ZAMBIA
\ \ \ \ 7 \ \ e ZIMBABWE Maun
?z +\ Lobatse ,' \ - .J - 1 r' . ( / P-- ,- r REPUBLIC OF / SOUTH AFRICA 0 rn~les 150 L- r -j 7-7 0 k/lornetres 150 TABLE 2.11 Coal Fields In Botswana
~ - Coal Deposit Economical l y Area In Situ* Recoverable Reserves 2 In 109 tonnes In 106 tonnes Coal Fie1 d Km
Morupul e Moi jabane Mmamabul a Let1 hakeng
Dutlwe
- P- Source: (11, 85, 119 - Compiled by 77)
TABLE 2.1.3
Comparison Of Supply Statistics P-
Gasol i ne Diesel ('000 It.) ('000 It.) 1980 1981 1980 1981
P- MMRWA (60) 48800 56000 94700 112200
MWC (64) 46347 --- 101292 - - -- 103 -
FIGURE 2.5
COAL TRANSPORT hospitals (76). A study is presently underway to assess the feasibili ty of instal ling grading facilities at the Morupule col1iery so this domestic demand can be met with domestic coal (77).. . Two major future developments should be emphasized briefly, though their implications will be discussed later. BPC plans to commission a 90 MW thermal power station (3 X 30 MW) at the Morupule colliery pit head in 1985/86.* This will cause a major expansion of mining at Morupule and open the possibility of using "discards" from future washing operations (necessary for preparation of export coal ) for power generation (77, pp. 4 & 27). Secondly, Shell Coal may well have signed an agreement with the GOB by the time the present report is received for development of the Kgaswe coal field and could be producing 5 million tonnes of export coal annually by the early 1990's (77). Morupule could be expanded to one mill ion tonnes annually (a three fold increase) (77). A lesser, though possibly significant future development might be the use of coal producer gas (associated with a more genera1 intensification of coal use in the domestic economy) for the generation of electricity in the small, isolated autoproducer svstems oresentl v usinq diesel (77). ~ef;ned ~etroleum products ' supply. Tab1 e 2.12 condenses information from tab1 es presented in the External Trade Statistics for 1980 (49) and data made available by MMRWA (60). Once more. one is struck bv the oredominant position of diesel, with more than half of the ioreigh exchange expenditure. Diesel and gas01 ine together account for 84% of the cost of importing items under Chapter 27 of the import statistics. Adding lubricating oils,** kerosene, and LPG to the first two, one accounts for 94%. MMRWA summary statistics cover four of these first five imports and also the seventh-ranked imported item, residual fuel oil. Concerning this last import, however, it is necessary to report a discrepancy. BPC reports using roughly five times as much heavy fuel oil for generating electricity as is accounted for in the MMRWA statistics for imports during 1980 (5,323,900 liters vs. 1.1 million liters) (7).
* This could be 90 MW if a third coal-burning unit is included (48).
** The only indication of supply or demand for lubrication oils available is the C.T.O. consumption for government vehicles of 320,669 liters in 1981. Assuming that the C.T.O. services 14.3% of the nation's vehicles and that lube oil consumption can be projected, one obtains 2,242,441 liters nationally. V) 73 Q W U S 3 '7 U 't - 0 aJ 3 L L a a +-' U 0 S S 2; U> m L 'r W aJ aJ 3 W V) L 7 m WWS U m .- 0 V)
7 5 m C-' - L '7 c, ar S U S .r- aJ 3 E L L 0 c,h 4
.F- -0 0 S 0 0 m 0 r. 3 - * ff- m
V) m c, .- L +J 7 L * W m N aJ 3 0 m * N m S S a a aJ '7 N m N 0 E. M-E m W C-' "U Urns aaJaJ m 'CUL I- V) c aJ 3 c, * * W m S m't a L .r- c, al 0 m m 0 W V) L 0 a m N 4 d - n 0-0 m * W W V)3L E W N 4 .r V) 0 m 't
V) W73 c,3w a, m 0-0 73 C-' S 3 m a, m .- C L U E U m m W aJ3S C. U0 r. r. I-+ r. U W C-' m .- X r. r. r. r- LDaJ W C. L N N N N m . .m +=U XOS W .- m - V) Q 7 S am - .- 0 c?-- V) 0 m U +-'-Q "S L - .r U V) L 'F m 7 St'3 m aJ C-' u .F- .F Vi 73 m 3 m- 0 0 0 0 aJ r L 7 3 73L V) 7 nr 0 73 .F 7 r. a .r aJ aJ - ch -a WaJ N c, V) n c, 3 = LE c, m aJ aJcm a 7 CC- .r- 3 U r-- .r- SOS V) i m LaJaJ 3 7 U aJ .- .F- 3 a~r- U .- . 0. 733 >A c, +' 0 0 +> m :% 5 m .F m a L L V). L I- V). V) aJ m + a a>- aJ r ='+a, .-n- a, Y m.7 mm -aJ CL- uoa Y S m U: 4 * m r. Refined petroleum products are imported by five multinational corporations, Caltex, B.P., Shell, Mobil, and Total. Supplies all come from South Africa, placing Botswana, in the words of a MMRWA document, "in a vulnerable position should any disruption of this supply ever occur" (59).* All information avail able to Botswana's energy p1 anners concerning these imported commodities comes either through customs and excise statistics or directly from the five importers, in annual letters to various departments of the GOB, including the MC1 and MWC. This latter source of information is far from adequate, since the companies only give the total number of l i ters or kiloliters of major items. Some break down their statistics by supplies imported and delivered to private vs. public distributors, some do not even do that. Some break down imports into useful sub-categories such as aviation petrol, but some do not. None of the companies breaks down consumption by category of end-user. In general it would seem desirable to encourage the companies to report imports in a standard format, giving as much information as GoB's energy planners feel is useful and feasible for the companies to col l ate. GoB's own treatment of refined oetro oroducts is far from perfect. Responsibility for statistics apbears diffuse, with MMRWA, MCI, and MWC all compiling annual numbers independently. These numbers also do not always coincide. For instance, Table 2.13 compares figures for 1980 and 1981. Energy Conversions. Since there is virtual ly no charcoal produced in Botswana, the only other major transformation whose organization and efficiencies are of concern is the production of electricity from primary energy sources. -Electricity is produced from coal, diesel, and residual fuel oil in Botswana. The technical organization of the electricity sector is summarized in Table 2.14 and Figure 2.6. Roughly 400 GWh were generated in 1980 by the Botswana Power Corporation's power stations** and 108 GWh bv various autoproducers. The national total generation was 508.9 GWh, of which autoproducers (Orapa Diamonds being the largest one) generated 27%. Installed capacity was 154.39 MW, of which BPC's share was 116.94 (68%) and autoproducers 37.45 MW (32%).
* Strategic petroleum product storage tanks have been commissioned as a result (48).
* * This fisure does not include the small number of MWh generated by the diesel sets supplied to three major villages by BPC. TABLE 2.13
Comoari son Of Suool v Statistics
Gasol ine Diesel ('000 It.) ('000 It.) 1980 1981 1980 1981
MMRWA (60) 48800 56000 94700 112200
MC1 (45) 41291 53433 101162 92961
MWC (64) 46347 --- 101292 - - TABLE 2.14
Electricity Generation
Annual Peak 68.9 MW (-10' KW)
Annual Generation 401 GWh (=lob KWh) (g) -- 509 counting autoproducers
Generation System Summary
Installed Capacity Plant Type "1980" Generation Efficiency W ( GWh) 1980 1990 ~rojected'')
Coiiibust~onTurbine (54.257 (So.D~vision) 0.102 9.2)'~) 180.2'") (Coal ) (324.254 (Shashe Div. ) 0.289" 60.0)
Diesel 2.92 0.283 3.~4'~) 3.24 (Light Fuel Oil)
Oil Steain 19.36 0.336 7.05 7.05
Imports @(h) (from South Afrlca -ESCOM Grid)
(g) Botswana Power Company Sales 1980/81 = 363.3 GWh. (11) October, 1981, the Southern Division was connected to ESCOM, as a teniporay source of power for the Jwaneng diamong mine and town presently under construction. It is planned to connect Jweneng to a unified national grid by the late 1980s. (I) Siiiall over-estimate of efficiency because a small amount of diesel (1.852 li tres) was also used. (j) Excluding the autoproducer, Botswana Meat Corporation with old (1946) coal-steam boilers rated at 1.6 MW. (k) Excluding autoproducers as follows:
Au toproducer Installed Capacity (1980)
Orapa Diamond Mine 25.6 MW
Botswana Meat Corporat~on 2.0 MW Due to decrease when BPC expansion occurs Morupul e CO! l lery 1.25 MW
Is01ated Government Install ations 7.0 MW .FIGURE.------.- 2.6-. --
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTIOb' - .------. - --.. .------
1111 Power station
Future central power statton
I -- Future transrnlss~onl~nes \ ..... Rural electr~f~cat~onlines \ 0 Rural power stat~on \ 7 * Rural supply available \ Maun \. O* .I
Orapa Franc~stown 1
Molepolole /~och;d~ ?* /..so * ' Jwaneng : T,lok;veng C---. ...a., * - Gabororie B arnotswa an ye* \ \ /-\ Lobatse 7' \ $ X I L- -/ .- L i I f Rural supplies are of three kinds. First, eleven major villages are connected to either the southern or Shashe division's grid under direct BPC control. Second, three major villages have their own diesel sets, suppl ied and fuel led by BPC, but maintained by the DDE of MMRWA.* Finally, some 186 isolated GOB install ations (school S, hospital S, government centers) are electrified by smal l generators suppl ied, fuel led, and maintained by the DDE. In the BPC's operations 5.711 PJ of coal and refined petroleum produce 1.443 PJ (400.8 GWh) of electrical energy. That implies an overall efficiency of 25.64%. Efficiencies of various of the BPC's units vary from only 10.2% for the southern division's combustion turbines to 33.6% for its oil steam generation. Another way of stating the situation is that roughly 74% of the primary energy used to generate electricity is lost in the cool ing towers. Of the 400.8 Gwh generated by BPC, only 363.3 reaches consumers. Thus about 9% of generated electricity is used by the power stations themselves or is lost. The proportion of loss to station use varies for different operations. BPC gives losses as 7.55% and station use as 10.52% for the southern division and only 1.32% loss and 6.26% station use for Shashe division. Efficiencies for the smaller units of autoproducers are not known, but must be significantly smaller. Several future p1 anned developments in the electrical sector are highly significant. BPC's southern division has recently been connected to South Africa's ESCOM grid. Power is being purchased to support mining development at Jwaneng. It is also used in the Gaborone Area. Meanwhile, by 1985/86 a third BPC power station should be in service. The master plan calls for integration of a1l three power stations into one national grid, el iminating the disjuncture between southern and Shashe divisions. When this additional capacity is instal led and integration is achieved, South African power will no longer be needed, and additional autoproducers can be served at lower cost by BPC. This development scenario takes one up into the early 1990's. 1986 targets for installed capacity total 233 MW, with 263 MW expected in 1990. Generation is expected nearly to double by 1986, achieving 764 GWh of sales (at 9% loss and station use, approximately 840 GWh generated), and 1,116 GWh of sales (approximate1 y 1,226 GWh generated) in 1990 (60).
.k According to government p1 ans, eventual l y a1l vill ages with more than 5,000 inhabitants will be connected and six smaller vill ages a1 ong transmi ssion routes (48). New Energy Supplies. Potenti a1 and Limitations. It has a1 ready been emphasized that low productivity in rural areas by the mass of farmers and herders and dependency on imported fuel for water pumping are two of Botswana's major challenges. Both these problems could to some extent be addressed by development of existing new and renewable energy resources. Animal power has been mentioned above. The potenti a1 horsepower equivalent i S enormous. Technical advances in designing more efficient and useful animal -drawn tools (such as the Makgonatsotl he "tool carrier" (14)), more durable and efficient animal carts and wagons (at RIIC and some of the Brigades), and animal-powered water pumping (underway at RIIC) have been made. Between potential energy and technique, however, there lies a vast terrain festooned with problems such as mal distribution of l ivestock ownership, mal distribution of income, hence general l y low effective demand for such innovations, labour shortage in households (often female-headed) where men work in the South African mines, poor draft-animal nutrition due to overgrazing and seasonal shortage of forage, and the need to up-grade "bush mechanic's" skills and access to tools (e.g. welding) to ensure repair of new technologies. None of these problems are insuperable. What is clear, however, is that no amount of imaginative engineering will make animal power wide1y useful by itself. Comprehensive support for release of this great energy potential must come from the highest levels in the form of rural industrialization, income, and employment policies and programmes (e.g. 79). Wind power technology is undergoing rapid development in Botswana at RIIC and the Windmill Technology Group Serowe and is being tested by MMRWA/MOA. The most likely application is in pumping water. While undoubtedly suitable to many sites chosen carefully, a general limitation does exist (106), as agro-climatological data suggest that wind speeds are highest during the rainy season, when surface water trapped in pans, etc. is more avail able to livestock. It may very well be, however, the level of technical advance of windmills in Botswana might make them of interest to some other SADCC countries, and further work in this area should be encouraged. Sol ar power is a1 ready commerci a1l y expl oited for water hedting, and experiments with solar distillation for saline water are underway at RIIC as well as work on solar cooking (18). Botswana Technology Centre 'S renewable energy unit (BRET) p1ans to test photovoltaics (at present a few units are being used in isolated areas for electricity generation) for water pumping and fencing. The greatest short-term potential for solar may be, however, desalination of larger quantities of water for human consumption using a combination of salt pond evaporation and night sky radiation-condensation. Such possibilities are under discussion at RIIC, and joint work on the issue of energy for desalination of water may be of interest to a sub-group of the SADCC countries which share the problem of high mineral salt l eve1 s in groundwater. Bio-digestion based on cattle dung has been studied extensively at RIIC using both Chinese and Indian methods. Currently plans are underway to begin trials in a local community of borehole water pumping using biogas (80%) and diesel (20%). If technically sustainable and cost effective, such an approach (combined with animal-powered pumping and windmills) could considerably reduce Botswana's dependence on imported diesel for livestock watering. Coal producer gas has already been mentioned. A recent study recommends further investigation of a range of applications (77). Unfortunately it rules out the feasibility of coal producer gas-powered water pumping, but does favour the possibility of using such gas to generate electricity at isolated places present1y dependent on diesel . Work is also underway on a variety of improved end-use devices. Several units are working on stoves (metal and mm household use and for commercial applications such as rural bakeries (e.g. RIIC Madiba Brigades). RIIC and the Postharvest Technology Project (both under the Rural Industries Promotion Department of MCI) are working on the development and diffusion of sorghum mills. The "hay box" developed at RIIC may well have important contributions to make in households with both limited time for cooking and limited fuel due to the interaction of constraints discussed earl ier. Passive solar design of houses has been looked at to some extent by RIIC, and given the extreme cold during part of the year in some areas, such contributions, if acceptable culturally and economical, could reduce fuel required for space-heating. Along similar lines, it must be suggested that three village industries may be ripe for development: candle making, blanket weaving, and knitting. All the candles used in Botswana are imported from South Africa as are most of the blankets and a considerable proportion of knitted goods. There is clear evidence of great domestic demand for all three items, and the public health advantage of clothing children better in the cold season (reducing pneumonia) is incalculable. Furthermore, there is evidence that the rural poor, especially women, make considerable income already from their involvement in artisanal production, and would likely be interested. But are blankets, sweaters, and candles "renewable energy technologies?" The answer is undoubtedly yes if an integrated view is taken of energy planning, that is, if both increases in supply and reductions in demand are seen as intimately interrelated with more general processes such as employment generation and rural development. Another similar suggestion would be to develop a special stove or insulating system for the 200 liters drums used by home brewers of sorahum beer. FUTURE PROSPECTS
ILi kel y Energy Options and Constraints.
As in other African countries, the overall strategy is quite likely to be - and should be - simul taneously to attempt to reduce demand and to increase supply (95), a1 though the relative emphasis given to demand-side versus supply-side approaches is likely to be different in Botswana than in many other countries due to its heavy present dependence on diesel from South Africa for water pumping (108). Reducing Demand. Essentially this means reducing demand for refined petroleum products because of the intersection of extreme vulnerabil ity of a vital sectoral activity (water pumping) and a high degree of dependency/uncertainty of supply. It does not mean a reduction in the total energy consumed by the nation since economic development is highly correlated with growth in total energy consumption (107). It does not mean reduction in per capita energy use nor in rural or urban household use of refined petrol eum since increasing we1 fare l eve1 s and real aspirations are moving in the opposite direction from a very low per capita starting point. It does not mean a decrease in refined petroleum used by transport since the transport share is currently moderate and considerable development of road communications is still necessary to achieve dynamic inter-regional economic relations. What is really meant is an energy substitution (71), resulting in a reduction of imported refined petroleum going to water pumping, while simultaneous efforts are exercised to find crude oil in Botswana and to assure SADCC country sources and/or supply routes for petroleum. An aeromagnetic survey has indicated that geological formations exist that might contain oil or gas. The GOB is negotiating with interested oil companies about possible exploration, which could start as early as 1983 (59). World petroleum economics suggest that such companies might not be interested in development of oil on a small scale (domestic market or even small overland exports to SADCC countries) (93,94,98,110). If deposits justified foreign export, the question of export route would arise as it does concerning coal exports to be considered be1ow. Transport would also be the key to securing SADCC country oil (e:g. from Angola*) or from overseas via one of the five refineries in the SADCC countries.** A reactivated refinery at
* At 8 Mtoe, Angola's recent foreign oil exports are roughly 12-13 times the energy equivalence of the entire national energy consumption of Botswana in 1980.
** Sited in Umtal i, Matola, Ndol a, Dar es Salaam, and Luanda. Umtali could provide Botswana with some petroleum products by rail and would require no new infrastructure given that the supply of crude by pipe1ine from Beira remains secure. Ndola a1 so has excess capacity. A more ambitious approach would be to think of a pipeline for refined products or crude from Zimbabwe to Botswana. Import of Angol an refined petroleum or crude would require crossing Namibia at some point by pipeline or rail (possibly in connection with the proposed Trans-Kalahari railway) or a complex trans-shipment process via the Benguela railway, Zambi an and Zimbabwean transport networks. At present Botswana does not have a refinery. It is theoretically possible to substitute other energy sources for refined petroleum products for much water pumping, electricity generation (especially by the small diesel sets in isolated government facilities and some major villages), and in rail transport. Wind energy, animal power, biogas, and solar power all offer some possibility for water pumping at low retro-fitting and maintenance costs and low environmental cost. Natural, planned expansion of the BPC grid and increase in coal-fired generation will probably begin to phase out centralized diesel and fuel oil generation, or could move in that direction for little additional cost. Coal producer gas has been suggested as an energy source for electricity generation in isolated p1aces. An expanded coal -based national electricity grid (with or without supplementation from a future, integrated SADCC country grid+) could power Botswana's railway transport. All of the aforementioned coal /el ectrici ty -based developments may have moderate to high environmental costs due to the water demands of coal mining and air pollution problems associated with large-scale thermal generation (26,69,77). The capital costs of electrifying rail transport would be very high, a1 though fuel cost ratios in the rail sector are said to be 8: 4: 1 for coal, diesel, and electricity, respectively (65). An a1 ternative, or at least a stop-gap measure, might be coal/steam locomotives given the abundance of coal in Botswana. In favour of such an option is the fact that it is a well known technology and a1 so the great desirability of reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels. Against it is the relatively high cost of fuel per tonne/kilometer re1ative to diesel or electric1ty. The relative magnitudes of "costs" (in the broadest sense) of rail transport are schematized in Table 2.15.
+ SADCC states that an integrated electricity network is its long-term goal which would "make avail able energy throughout the region - even in the most remote areas" (108, p.88). C aJ c, m L W U 5 0 U h 1 z WC, v, .r
9 W C,m L W U 5 B -1
II: 111 3 'P- I -10
W C, m L aJ S U m 0 .r E I
aJ > .P- C) E 0 aJ E +J 0 v, U h 01 m U E W m "7 aJ (C- C, .- m L \ v F- U m aJ 0 7 c.3 W Even where the costs of retrofitting are relatively low, as in borehole water pumping, the process of energy substitution for thousands of boreholes* would be a complex one, demanding improvements in rural income distribution, development of several sub-sectors of Botswana's manufacturing industry, expanded training for a range of semi-skilled and skilled workers, and changes in the general standard of animal husbandry. Increasing Supply. The new energy sources and end-use technologies mentioned above and in earlier sections are all in need of further development and testing, though some more than others. SADCC initiatives in sharing information, research, and training in these areas would help greatly in reducing the period required to perfect the technologies. Furthermore, where components of the new technologies must be imported (e.g. photovol taic cell S), SADCC should consider p1 acing the production of such components on its agenda for common, coordinated industrial p1 anning. Of renewable resource options, remains the most important for Botswana. While there is not as yet a "fuelwood crisis" in the rural areas, this report has summarized evidence of considerable localized pressure. Supply of wood can be expanded by the more systematic management of existing forests and woodlands. This, however, cannot be separated from more general approaches toward improving livestock management, pasture management, and communal land use (29,57,79,91,92,102). Woodlots offer the possibility of annual production ten times as high as natural vegetation, but their large-scale development would require considerable expansions of government extension, research into the suitable species (a1 though work in this area has begun) and their environmental effects, improvements in income distribution as more families would be buying wood under this option, and possible changes in stoves and cooking arrangements$* None of these are matters to be dismissed lightly. Other biomass options do not look promising. Arable agricul ture in Botswana is not l i kely to develop to the scale required for economical ly feasible production of ethanol (as in
* From a 13% sample (non-random), commercial farms alone may have well over 1,000 boreholes presently using diesel (41).
** The dimensions of wood gathered in a dead, dry condition are significantly different than that produced in wood1 ots. Stoves require certain dimensions, the conventional three-legged Botswana pot quite different ones. These and other issues would have to be sorted out. Brazil or Zimbabwe) or methanol. The environmental consequences of growing water hyacinth in the Okavango Delta for densification and combustion are too little known to take the risk even if it made economic sense In a country with so much coal. Cattle dung is better used as fertilizer since woodlots can deal with local shortages of wood, even if efficient dung-burni ng stove technology can be imported. Animal power use in Botswana could be expanded and made more efficient as described in earlier sections. It must be emphasized that the key to any significant impact on energy supply by such innovations is, however, considerably more egalitarian access to cattle in the country. This and the issue of income distribution are the two central issues that underlie potential improvements in the country's energy profile. Both require government policy decisions and follow-through. A1 though one source gives Botswana's own hydroelectric potential as 2,984 MW (109, p.97, Table 6.3), no GOB study or other source can be found confirming such an ambitious estimate. It is true that3the Okavango has an estimated annual inflow of 11,900 million m (48, p.3), but as with the issue of water withdrawals and transfers from the Okavango,* any serious development of its potential is likely to await the Twenty-f irst Century (48). It is possibly more fruitful to consider the possibility that Botswana would find it desirable to purchase a share of Angola's, Zimbabwe, Zambia's, or Mozambique's considerable hydro potential .** In the lead up to a completely integrated SADCC electrical grid, medium-term possibilities would be to l ink up with the Zimbabwean and Zambian grids, or to tap Cunene power by linking up with southern Angola via Namibia. In the event that small hydro development on the Limpopo or Chobe rivers became cost effective, the considerable experience with small hydro development accumul ated by several of the SADCC countries would be of importance for Botswana. Another area where broader SADCC experience could serve Botswana's needs is woodlots and afforestation in semi-arid environments. Seed supply for wood1 ot devel opment might a1 so be usefully considered a common SADCC concern even if the member countries have a great diversity of agro-ecologies.
* In the very long-term water distributed widely from the Okavango would be avail able for irrigation agriculture and livestock, partly reducing the problem of energy intensive water pumping, if - and only if - the energy cost of such water transfers was lower (possibly another job for coal-based electricity).
** With 9,664 MW, 5,000 MW, 3,834 MW, and 11,920 MW hydro potential, respectively (109). Coal will undoubtedly be the major nonrenewable energy source in Botswana's future. Shell Coal may soon be moving ahead with p1 ans to open the second coll iery. Morupule coll iery will expand operations for the opening of the new coal-fired power station at the pit head and is said to be able to expand to a level of one million tonnes a year. The Shell operations should produce five million tonnes a year. Reserves are estimated to be between 16 and 17 billion tonnes. Such expansion of a coal sector that produced only 371,000 tonnes in 1980 will confront a number of problems. Although the industry has a good safety record so far, increase in scale will require continuing safety efforts. The environmental problems, particularly those concerned with water and air, are recognized in Botswana (26), but will require careful moni toring. Likewise, the experience of Selebi-Phikwe has taught lessons concerning the difficulty of establishing new towns associated with industry. These lessons are already being applied at Jwaneng, so one can expect urbanization associated with an expanded coal industry to take a broader range of social and we1 fare issues into account. The major questions posed by coal expansion, however, are not these, but the issues of export market, export route, and SADCC industrial location p1 anning. Given transport costs, it has been estimated that Botswana coal is l ikel y to be some fifteen per cent more cost1y to European consumers than South African (77). The alternative markets are SADCC countries, but among them the major markets accessible with little investment in new transport infrastructure either have enough of their own coal at the moment (Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique) or have considerable hydroelectric potential (Zambia, Angola) or oil (Angola). Of course, consumption patterns among the SADCC countries may change in the long run, but the mass market for Botswana coal is not immediately apparent; however, Nami bia is a possi bil i ty. * Export route is also a difficult issue. The challenge facing SADCC and Botswana is clearly evident in the contrast between two of the export route options, Richards Bay and the Trans-Kal ahari . A single rail line of only 100 km would be enough to complete the integration of the new mine with a South African rail system terminating at Richards Bay via Mahalapye (in Botswana) and Ellisras (in South Africa). Furthermore, Shell Coal is, in fact, a shareholder of the Richards Bay Terminal Company and until now has not been able to make full use of its quotas for this harbour (77).
* Namibia has no coal, and, after independence from South Africa, could well develop an industrial economy in need of Botswana's coal. The a1 ternative route, the Trans-Kal ahari Railway, would provide for export via Namibia to Waivis Bay, its main harbour. A 1,000 km rail line would have to be constructed. Construction in South Africa between 1973 and 1976 of a 860 km line from Shishen to Saldanha Bay cost (including some harbour enlargement) 72 million Pula (77). Expansion of the coal industry in Botswana should be seen in the context of simil ar-scale possible increases in other SADCC countries - Mozambique, increasing from 700,000 to 2 million tonnes, Swaziland, from 200,000 to six million tonnes, and Zambia, increasing possibly from 600,000 to three million tonnes (77). While these increases are not certain, their possibility suggests the necessity for a coordinated look at coal exporting on a SADCC basis. Broader issues of industrial expansion are also raised. When Botswana expands its coal industry, will it become a desirable site for a new fertilizer factory serving other SADCC countries? What of new cement works (another user of coal)? What of coal gasification? Such questions are beyond the scope of this paper, but should be on the industrial planning agenda of SADCC.
Concl usions
Figure 2.7 summarizes the logic of the above. Overall options include reducing demand (as defined above) and increasing supply. Three sets of technical means exist: retrofitting boreholes, isolated electrical generators, and possibly the railway; development of new and renewable sources as well as end-use technology; expansion of coal. SADCC cooperation may be desirable in aspects of all three, as indicated in Figure 2.7. New and renewables will only be purchased on the internal market if income distribution is improved. Note that income from coal expansion will have less of an effect on the process of retrofitting if income distribution is not improved. Income distribution is an issue for internal Botswana policy, as indicated by the parallelogram in Figure 2.7. Coal export (an external political issue as well as an area where SADCC coordination would be helpful - hence the circle and box on the diagram) is to be complemented by an intensified use of coal in Botswana. Here again, however, use of the coal, resulting electricity, and related end-use devices requires purchasing power on the internal market. This, again, requiring improved income distribution as well as increase in income. On this latter point, the diagram has been oversimplified for the sake of graphical presentation. As Figure 2.7 stands, it implies that export-oriented production and increasing rural productivity are all that increase income. In a balanced economy that is not the case, and one should really imagine an arrow from "internal market" to "income", suggesting that wage-goods or production-for-need is capable of dynamizing economic growth alongside export-oriented production.
Botswana is a small energy system with some troubling dependencies. Its potential for expansion is large even if it lacks oil, hydropower and industrial biomass potential. It can overcome the existing dependencies and real ize the full potential of its coal resources, animal power and woodland biomass given sustained mutual aid relations with the other SADCC countries as well as explore the possibly great potential of its wind and solar endowments. Acknowl edgements
The author gratefull y acknowledges the warm hospitali ty and excellent professional assistance provided by his colleagues and contacts in Botswana. In particular, I would like to thank Drs. Gaston Luthi and Niel Parsons and the MMRWA and N. I.R. for providing, respective1y, the equal l y valuable official and unofficial bases. The staff and facilities of the BTC were, likewise, generously made available, and conversations with Dr.Derek Medford, Bart Aarsse, and Julia Majaha-Jartby were invaluable. Many persons he1 ped crystall ize the difficult question of rural energy. In particular, Mr.David Inger of MCI, Dr.Sonia Barrett and Eiza de Vries of RIIC in Kanye and Vic Cumming in Molepolole deserve special thanks, as do Daan and Susan Lui jt in Ramotswa, and Helmuth Hoffman in Mahalapye. Carol Pass helped with archival research. Mr. Damman of BPC, Mr.Ditschani of CTO, Mr.Katse of Water Affairs, and Mr.Alidi of MOA were cheerfully patient despite my many return visits to their offices to probe detail S. John Foster, Yuko Yano, and Jack Bretscher, of concurrent UN energy studies were stimulating and he1pful chance companions. Finally, a debt of gratitude is due to many other professional people too numerous to mention who opened their offices and files and shared experiences. It is hoped that the following not only serves adequately as a report to SADCC but as a contribution to the efforts of those many hard-working col leagues in Botswana. REFERENCES CITED
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CHAPTER 3
LESOTHO
b Y
Alan Fro1 ich
INTRODUCTION
The Kingdom of Lesotho is a small, arid, mountainous enclave entirely surrounded by the Republic of South Africa (and the nominally independent Transkei bantustan). In 1980 1.3 million people occupied a land area of 30,300 square kilometres, approximately the size of Belgium. The capital is Maseru. Lesotho is economically one of the world's least developed countries and contains few natural resources. Potenti a1 ly its most important natural resource (after the l and itself) is water power, which is of yet untapped. Two of the largest rivers in southern Africa - the Sengu (known as the Orange outside Lesotho) and the Tugela - have their sources in Lesotho. The entire country is more than 1500 metres above sea level and can be divided into three broad ecological zones. The l ow-l ands zone, consisting of a 3-48 kilometre -wide strip along the western and southern borders and the Sengu River valley, occupies 26% of the total land area and contains most of the population. A1 though most of the arable land is located in the lowlands, the soils are generally poor; the rock formations are sedimentary sandstones, clay shales and mudstones. The foothil l s are smal l p1 ateau-di ssected basal tic p1 atforms - ranging between 1800 and 2000 metres in a1 ti tude, which occupy 8% of the land area. The mountains, reaching to 3000 meters, account for the remaining 66% of the country. Lesotho has been called a labour reserve because a large sector of the working age population - probably at least 50% of the men - work in South Africa as migrant labourers. Lesotho is also extremely dependent on South Africa for almost all manufactured commodities, as well as for much of its food and energy. DEMOGRAPHICS
Total Population.
The latest census of Lesotho's population was conducted in 1976. Total population was estimated to be 1.217 mill ion of which 52% were female and 48% male. The growth rate since the previous census in 1966 averages 2.3% (Bureau of Statistics, 1980, p.23). The World Bank estimates 1980 population to be 1.34 million, implying an average growth rate for 1976 to 1980 of 2.4% per year. The World Bank reports three sets of population projections; its own lies in the middle and is used here. The average growth rate to 2000 is forecast to be 2.2% (World Bank, 1980, Annex 2, Appendix Tables 2.9 - 2.11). Table 3.1 contains a summary of population estimates and other demographic measures discussed below.
Urban Popul ation.
Depending on what is considered "urban", several differing estimates of Lesotho's urban population are possible. Only one town, the capital city of Maseru with an estimated 1980 total (& jure) population of 57,500, has more than 10,000 inhabitants (Third Five Year Plan p.343). If Maseru is assumed to be the only urban area, Lesotho's urban population constitutes about 4.3% of total population in 1980 - up from 3.9% in 1976. For the purposes of this study, however, such a stringent criterion may be inappropriate. In the case of a country as small and unurbanized as Lesotho (even Maseru can hardly be considered a city by world standards), a more useful distinction might be between town dwellers and village dwellers. In talking about urban versus rural economic and social conditions - extending to such factors relevant to this study as household fuel choice - this division between town and country is the one used by most inhabitants and students of Lesotho. The section on urban development in Lesotho's Third Five Year Plan focuses on 16 towns, including the nine district centers and other important towns; which comprise the "gazetted urban areas." This delineation of Lesotho's urban areas is the one used in this study. The 1980 population of these towns is estimated to be about 126,000, or 9.4% of Lesotho's total population. The 1976 census figure was 110,000 or 9.0% (Third Five Year Plan, p.343). Future urban/rura? spl its are projected by l inear extrapolation of the 1976 to 1980 trend, and are contained in Table 3.1, along with the derived rural and urban and urban population forecasts. TABLE 2 1
Demographic Summary -p----
Total Population (millions)
Female Male PTotal
Urban Populat~>n A-.-Rural Population
Millions p% Millions %
Households
Urban Rural Total P P Millions % M~llions Million --p
Persons per Household Urban = 4.25 Rural = 5.14 (see text for sources and derivations)
.1976-. . -. Population- - - --. -- ..and Household Density
Land Area Popul ation Households 2 2 2 (lo3 km ) 106 Per km 10' Per km
Lowland 5 2 Foothlll 4 7 SRV* 2 9 Mountain 17 6
Total 30 4 l 217 40 0 240 7 9
Arable 4 0 1 217+ 304 2 240+ 60 0
F Sengu (Orange) River Valley
+ Total Population, not zone population
Summat-y of Average, Annual Growth Rate 1980 - 2000
Pop~~lation Househol ds
Total 2 211 2 2%
Urban 3 2% 3 2E
Rural 2 1X 2 1% Househol ds.
According to the census, the number of households in 1976 was about 240,000 (Bureau of Statistics, 1980, p.16). This amounts to 5.06 persons per household. Evidence suggests that rural households are larger than urban households. The following assumptions, consistent with the overall 1976 average, are used to generate 1980 households: 4.25 persons per urban household and 5.14 persons per rural household. Based on this, estimates for 1980 urban and rural households are approximate1 y 30,000 and 237,000 respective1y, or 267,000 total households. Household projection are generated in the same way, holding the rural and urban persons per household assumptions constant, and combining them with the population forecasts. The results are contained in Table 3.1.
Population and Household Density.
I? 1976 Lesotho's population density was about240 persons per km . This amounts to about 300 persons per km of 2rable land. The number of households averaged aimost 8 per km over Lesotho's total area, and about 60 per km of arable land. By ecological zone density is greatest in the lowlands and least in the mountains, as is shown in Table 3.1 (Bureau of Statistics, 1980).
Migrants.
So far the demographic discussion and figures have been based on total (de jure) population. However, according to the 1976 census 153,000 people (possibly an underestimate due to a reluctance to report illegal migration) were out of the country at the time of the census (Bureau of Statistics, 1980, p.23). This amounts to about 12.5% of the population (22% of the male and 4% of the female population). A complete understanding of domestic energy consumption would have to take this phenomenon into account. The absence of household members may affect energy consumptions for several reasons. Most important is probably that the high rate of migrancy among the rural population results in relatively high levels of cash income in the rural economy, for a country as poor as Lesotho. This is relevant to the increasing rural household consumption of kerosene, which will be discussed below. A1 so important is the reduced labour power avail able to households with migrants. Although it is beyond the scope of this study, it would be useful to treat rural households with and without migrants as two separate sectors. ECONOMY
Lesotho's economy is characterized by a much larger gross national product (GNP) than gross domestic product (GDP). GDP "is defined as the value of all final goods and services produced within the borders of a country during an accounting period." GNP "is derived from the gross domestic product by excluding income earned by productive services of foreign residents." (Miljkovic,
-et -al. 1961, pA4). In Lesotho's case, the bulk of the difference between GDP and GNP is the earning of migrant workers in South Africa. These earnings were an important factor in the growth of Lesotho's GNP during the 1970s (as well as before). Tables 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5 contain data on the level, structure, and growth of Lesotho's economy. These statistics, particularly the disaggregated ones, are probably quite poor and must be interpreted with caution. However, they are broad1y indicative at the economic level of structure and trends. Between 1972 and 1979, real GDP (at market prices) grew at an average rate of 8.9% per year, while real GNP grew at 11.2% per year. Net factor earning from abroad (more or less than l%), grew at a much higher rate of 16.7% per annum. These earnings increased from 33% of GNP in 1972 to 41% in 1979. It is likely that this trend has ended, and in fact has already begun to reverse itself. In the mid-1970s migrant earnings reached 50% of GNP, and then decl ined steadily to 1979. The steep growth in migrant earnings can be explained by two phenomena. First, the real wage levels of miners increased significantly in the 1970s especially in the gold mines, where the majority of Basotho migrant miners work. Second, the number of migrant workers increased during the first half of the 1970s. However, both these trends have level led off, and are unli kely to be repeated on the same scale in the future. In fact, a1 though indications are contradictory, there is reason to expect that the number of employment opportunities for Basotho migrants may even decl ine in the future. Because real GDP and GNP have been growing faster than population, there has been real growth in per capita income, as shown in Tables 3.5 and 3.6. However, the 1979/80 per capita GNP, measured in 1978 U.S. dollars*, was on 365 - less than three-fifths the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) cutoff for "very poor countries" of $625 (in 1978 dollars) per capita (Mil jkovic et al. 1978, Part I, p.7). Furthermore, a very high share of L=othois GNP per capita is accounted for by earnings outside the domestic economy - over 40% in 1979 - possibly the highest in the world and certainly the
* The exchange rate used to convert 1979/80 Maloti (Rand) to dollars was $1.203 = 1 Rand) TABLE 3.2
Selected Aggregate Economic Indicators
Million Maloti at Million Maloti at Current Prices Constant 1970/71 Prices
GDP at Factor Cost 44.3 59.1 210.7 48.4 51.1 82.5
GDP at Market Prices 46.5 64.3 263.2 50.8 56.7 102.8
Net Factor Income from Abroad 10.7 31.5 181.8 11.7 27.8 74.6
GNP at Market Prices 57.2 95.8 445.0 62.5 84.5 177.4
Imports of Goods & Services 24.0 52.0 298.9 26.0 46.4 105.4
Exports of Goods & Services 5.1 10.1 58.4 4.9 8.1 17.6~
Trade Deficit 18.9 41.9 240.5 21.1 38.3 87.8
Source: Miljkovic --et al. (1981, Part I, p.4).
= Split year for national accounts statistics indicates April of first to March of second year. t Preliminary figures. tt Bulk of increase over 1973/74 due to opening of Letseng-La-Terai Diamond mine. GDP By Source At Current And Constant Cost*
% of Total at Million Maloti Million Maloti Current Prices at Current Prices at Constant (1970/71) Prices
Agriculture tt Crops & Frults Livestock
Industry Manufacturing Handi craf ts Building & Construction Mining & Quarrying
Corn~nercial/Insti tutional Wholesale & Retail Cater1ng Finance, Real Estate & Business Serv7ces Non-profit Services Government Services Community & Personal Services Electricity & Water
Transportation & Coniniunication
Total
The split year for national accounts statistics indicates April of the first year to March of the second year. Sums may not be exact totals due to rounding.
+ 1979180 figures at-e preliminary. t+ Because agricultural product~onis so erratic in Lesotho, due primarily to climatic conditions, the focus on three years can be deceptive. The basic picture of a rather stagnant agricultural sector, however, is accurate, and is supported by other data on physical output.
Sources: Mil~kovicet al. (1981, Part 111, pp.18-19); Kizilyalo (1982, pp.96-97) TABLE 3.4 Average Real Growth Rates For Selected Economic Statistics
Components of GDP at Factor Cost Agricul ture Manufacturing Handicrafts Building & Construction Mining & Quarrying Commercial /Institution Transportation and Communications
Total GDP at Factor Cost
GDP at Market Prices Net Factor Income from Abroad
GNP at Market Prices Imports of Goods and Services Exports of Goods and Services TABLE 3.5
Per Capita GDP And GNP
Maloti per capita
At Constant (1970/71) At Current Market Prices Market Prices
GDP -GNP GDP GNP
Prel imi nary Estimate
TABLE 3.6
Average Real Growth Rate for Per Capita GDP and GNP
%/Year *
1967/72 1972/79 1967/79
per capita 0.0 6.6 3.8
) per capita 4.1 8.7 6.8
The exchange rate used to convert 1979/80 Maloti (Rand) to dollars was $1.203 = 1 Rand. highest in southern Africa. It can thus be seen that Lesotho's domestic economy i s extreme1 y poor, even by devel opi ng country standards. Several other important features and trends can be discerned in the summary economic statistics. A1 though agricultural statistics can be deceptive, due to large year-to-year fluctuations, it is clear that the sector's share of GDP has declined and that in real terms the crop component has stagnated. Despite a rapid growth rate, manufacturing has been and remains a tiny sector, contributing less than 4% to GDP in 1979/80. The informal industrial (handicrafts) sector, always small, has decl ined in importance as production remained essenti a1l y constant. The two largest growth sectors have been construction and mining. The high level of infrastructure construction has been financed significantly by foreign aid. Growth in mining can be attributed mainly to diamond price increases and, in particular, to the opening in the late 1970s of DeBeers diamond mine at Letseng-La-Terai. (The diamond mine was closed in 1983, which has implications for exports and GDP projections). The commercial /insti tutional sector has grown at a steady rate, but its share of GDP declined from slightly over to slightly under 50%. Tourism, mainly connected in the Holiday Inn and Hil ton hotel -casino complexes, accounted for the large increase in the catering component of the commerci a1 sector. Government and non-profit services also grew rapidly, while the wholesale and retail sector decl ined in importance (a1 though the apparent stagnation of the sector in real terms may be partly a result of weak data, as the rapid population and income growth would ordinarily imply growth for this sector). Spurred on, and largely made possible by the explosion in migrant earnings, has been a tremendous growth in imports, which totalled more than GDP in 1979/80. Exports have also grown, due mainly to increases in the quantity and prices of diamonds, but remain a small fraction of imports. This leaves Lesotho with a trade deficit in 1979/80 only slightly lower in value than GDP. The deficit was financed primarily by migrant remittances (about 75%), by net current transfers (over 10%, the most important component being Lesotho's share of SACU duties), and by foreign savings (almost 10%, largely grants-in-aid) (Mil jkovic --et al. 1981, Part I, pp.35-36). In 1978, the latest year for which the breakdown is available, consumer goods accounted for 72% of total imports, intermediate goods for 15%, and capital goods for 13%. The largest re1ative increase during the 1970s was in capital goods, reflecting the government's development policies which aimed at increased investment in infrastructure. In recent years over one-fifth of total imports have consisted of food items. This component appears to have been growing faster than total imports, a logical corollary of the stagnation of Lesotho's agricultural sector. Fuel imports, accounting for roughly 8% of imports in 1979, grew much faster than total imports during the second half of the 1970s, reflecting steep increases in both price and consumption (Mil jkovic et al. 1981, Part I, p.35; Bureau of Statistics, 1980, pp. 95-m67
Agricul ture.
Lesotho's agriculture is composed of two components, crop cultivation and livestock raising, which have been of roughly equal importance in terms of output value over the years. Crisis is not too strong a term to describe the conditions of Lesotho's agricultural sector over at least the last decade. Crop production - primarily maize, sorghum, wheat, beans, and peas - has stagnated and even declined, while population has grown. Lesotho has grown increasingly dependent on imported food, which by 1980 accounted for more than 40% (including commercial imports and food aid) of total food consumption (World Bank, 1980, p.i). Wool and mohair exports, Lesotho's only important exports besides diamonds, have decl ined. The explanation for this stagnation is complex. Since the late 19th century, when most of Lesotho's arable land was taken by the Boers and incorporated into the Orange Free State, crop cultivation has been a risky and not very productive undertaking. Rainfall is erratic. Soils are generally poor, and as population has grown more and more marginal land - steep and of low fertility - has by necessity been cultivated. The lack of woody vegetation, combined with overcropping and overgrazing, has caused erosion and depletion of the already l imi ted usable l and. Migratory labour in South Africa became a necessary means of subsidizing the sub-subsistence rural economy. Yet until the 1970's the area of cultivated land continued to grow, even though production didn't keep pace, as there was no alternative to utilizing income from every possible source. In the 1970's this pattern was upset by the explosion of wages in the South African mines. The income from this source overwhelmed potenti a1 income from agricul ture. Despite, the supposed shortage of land, much land - in the order of nearly 100,000 ha or 30% of the cultivated area at the beginning of the decade - has been taken out of production (World Bank, 1980, p.i). The rural economy has become integrally linked to migrant earnings. This incidentall y, tends to exacerbate income differences; rural households are fundamentally divided between those with (perhaps slightly over 50% of the total ), and those without, at least one migrant worker. Thus, looked at historically, migrant labour has been both a solution and a contributing factor to the insufficiencies of Lesotho's rural economy. The likelihood that this cycle can no longer continue is perhaps the most staggering problem Lesotho faces in the coming years. Energy planning can and should be a part of any programme to ameliorate Lesotho's agricultural problems, as such issues as soil quality, fuelwood supply, and allocation of rural labour are all closely linked.
NATIONAL ENERGY BALANCE
Fuels used in Lesotho can be divided into two broad categories: commerci a1 fuel s and non-commerci a1 or traditional fuel S. Commerci a1 fuel s i ncl ude refined petroleum products, electricity, and coal . At present, Lesotho produces no commercial fuels of its own and imports all its requirements from South Africa. Traditional fuels include firewood (encompassing trees, shrubs, bushes, and grasses), dung, and crop residues. Except for a small quantity of imported firewood, non-commercial fuels are an indigenous resource. Tables 3.7 and 3.8 lay out the basic pattern of energy demand and supply. Commercial fuels amount to about one-fourth of total energy requirements. Rural households and probably informal industry (for which no estimate is reported) are the only energy consuming sectors which rely primarily on traditional and thus indigenous fuels. Lesotho's dependence on energy imports is heavy even compared to many other developing countries; that these imports are obtained solely from South Africa makes this dependence a1l the more problematic. The sectoral distribution of demand reflects Lesotho's low l eve1 of economic development. Households consumed over four-fiths of all energy in 1980. Manufacturing, construction, and mining (excluding informal handicraft industries such as beer brewing) requirements, amounted to less than 5% of the total and less than 20% of commercial energy usage. Along with extreme external dependence for commercial fuels, Lesotho suffers from an acute scarcity of firewood resources. The aggregate figures reflect this situation in the high share of traditional fuel consumption accounted for by dung and crop residues - almost 40% (a1 though the traditional fuel statistics must be treated as suggestive rather than as quantitatively reliable). Energy planning in Lesotho can afford to neglect neither commercial nor traditional fuel S. Economic we1 l-being and development are dependent on the availability and affordability of both. Lesotho could attempt to mitigate a risky and costly dependence in commercial fuels through conservation and through substitution, where possible, of indigenous commercial (e.g. hydroelectric) and traditional fuel s for imports. Amel ioration of the fuelwood shortage, primarily through afforestation, could, by freeing human (reduced labour needed for fuel gathering), organic TABLE 3.7
Final Consumption Of Fuels By Sector, 1980 *
(Millions of Giga - Joules)
Modern Fuels Traditional Fuels
Petroleum Total Crop Total Total Products Electricity Coal Modern Fuels Fuelwoodt Dung Residues Traditional Fuels A1 l Fuels
Urban Households 0.29 0.06 0.66 1.01 .l9 0.19 1.20
Rural Households 0.50 0.35 0.85 9.5 4.9 1.0 15.4 16.25
Agriculture 0.12 0.12 ** ** ** ** 0.12
Indus try Manufacturing 0.11 0.04 0.15 0.15
Informal 0.25 0.25 ** ** ** X* 0.25
Construct1 on 0.39 0.39
Mining .l1 0.09 0.20
Commerci a1 / Institutional 0.24 0.14 0.67 1.05 ** ** 1.05
Transportation 1.14 1.14 1.14
Total 2.89 0.33 1.93 5.16 9.69 4.9 1.0 15.59 20.74
* See text throughout for sources and derivations t Includes trees, shrubs, bushes, grasses.
** No basis for estimation. r. r. Lc 0. m. m m F-,
0 0. 0. F-4 0
0 m. o . d 0
r. N 4. m. m 0
m 0. 0 . 0 N
W o. m . 0 0
d 0. 0. o m (dung and residues), and monetary resources, be a principal component in a programme to reverse the deterioration of Lesotho's agriculture.
Demand for Non-Commerci a1 Fuel s
Little work has yet been done on the demand for non-commerci a1 fuel s in Lesotho. The non-commerci a1 or traditional fuels used, can be grouped into three basic categories: wood, dried dung, and crop residues. Because of the virtual absence of trees in Lesotho, "wood" fuel consists primarily of a number of species of shrubs and bushes, and also of some grasses. Most of the dung used for fuel is cow dung, although horse dung is also sometimes used. Dung fuel can be further divided into three varieties, called in Sesotho khapane, l isu, and moraha. Khapane is dung collected from fields. and =ha arelected in the kraals where the cattle are kept at night. Lisu, the most important, is dung shovelled out of the kraal inrelatively dry state. Moraha is dung shovelled out wet after heavy rains, which is then formed into cakes that are dried in the sun. Crop residues are also burned when available, the most important being maize cobs and stalks, and bean pods and plants (Best, 1979; Gay, 1978). Consumption of non-commercial fuels can be attributed almost solely to three sectors. By far the most important is the rural household sector. However, wood and dung are also used by the informal industrial sector - primarily for beer brewing - and some wood is used by urban households, although coal is a more important fuel in the towns. The bulk of the non-commercial fuels are, of course, gathered in Lesotho; but a substantial amount of firewood, estimated to be over 30,000 tonnes or 64 million GJ in 1980, is imported from South Africa (Bureau of Statistics, unpublished). This imported wood is used primarily in the towns. Rural and urban household fuel consumption are discussed in separate sections below. No studies are available of fuel used in Lesotho for beer brewing and other informal economic activities, and I have no basis for making any quantitative estimates.
Rural Households
Energy, along with she1 ter, food and water, is an indispensable material input for the maintenance of human life. In rural Lesotho, providing energy to meet household needs is a function almost exclusively of women (with some assistance from children). The time necessary to perform this function competes directly with time avail able for crop cultivation, obtaining water, and other tasks. Further, biomass fuels have a1 ternative uses - particulary related to soil quality and preservation, two acute problems in Lesotho - with which their use for energy competes. Conversely, the quantity of energy obtained and used (at least below some amount that far exceeds the average household usage in Lesotho) is directly related to the levels of hygiene, nutrition, health, as well as comfort that can be attained. The interrel ationships between energy and the other elements of the rural household and agricul tural economies impl y that changes in energy availability will have profound impl ications for the we1 l-being of rural Basotho, leading either to changes in energy consumption or in the labour or money required to maintain consumption constant, and at the same time leading to possible changes in the utilization of biomass resources for other purposes. In the iesotho context of extreme fuelwood scarcity, an understanding of rural household energy consumption and its implications is critical to any attempt to improve (or even to maintain) the quality of rural life and the productivity of agricul ture. The open fire is the priicipal means of cooking, lighting, and heating for rural households. Kerosene is also widely used, in lamps and primus stoves, mainly for lighting and for warming water. Rarely, coal stoves are used for heating and cooking. The choice and mix of fuels used varies regionally, seasonally and socioeconomically. The amount and type of woody vegetation varies considerably by area and season. This affects the extent to which dung and sometimes kerosene are required. Kraal dung is available only to households owning cattle and kraals, and sometimes to their neighbours who may receive some in exchange for labour. Field dung accessibility varies by season and region. Kerosene use is closely tied to household cash income, age (younger women appear to use more kerosene, finding it more modern and convenient), and market accessibil ity (a1 though this has become less of a variable of l ate). Coal is used only by the wealthiest households, which have the means to purchase it and if necessary to transport it. Crop residues are generall y avail able on1 y following the harvest. Little work has yet been done to analyze precisely and quanti tively the widely varying pattern of rural household fuel consumption in Lesotho. However, a few distinctive features of the general pattern can be discerned from the available evidence. First, the extreme shortage of woody vegetation has resul ted in far greater reliance on dung for fuel than is usual for developing countries with simil ar agricultural economies. Similarly, the limited fuel resources have led to lower overall per capita fuel use than would be expected and desirable for a climate as cold as Lesotho's. In fact, average annual per capita consumption may be less than the one tonne of wood equivalent (approximately 16 gigajoules) commonly cited for warmer parts of Africa; the one avail able source of quantitative rural fuel consumption estimates (Best, 1979), indicates significantly less for the villages surveyed, although this cannot be interpreted as representative of other parts of iesotho (even ignoring certain methodological questions concerning the accuracy of the data). Based on Best's work, other qualitative studies, and discussions with people in Lesotho, I have made the following estimates of rural household fuel consumption for 1980 (See Table 3.9). These figures must be p1 aced in the context of several important trends in rural energy consumption. Increasing population pressures have caused a deterioration in the quality, quantity and accessabil ity of combusti ble vegetation. Re1 iance on commercial fuel S, primaril y paraffin, has increased, made possible largely by migrant labour remittances (Best, 1979, Gay, 1978 and others). Without policies and programmes that directly address the rural energy problem, in particular the availability of biomass fuels, the situation can only deteriorate further. Increased re1iance on commercial fuels is not a viable alternative given income levels in Lesotho; indeed, the prospects for migrant labour income presage possible forced reductions in re1 iance on commerci a1 fuel S. Some aid projects have already begun to address this situation. The Woodlot Project (described more fully below), which aims ultimately (among other things) to provide villages with cheap fuelwood, is an important effort, a1 though its scale is not great enough to make a significant national impact. The Lesotho Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) Project, begun in 1981 and funded by U.S.AID, is a new project which will attempt to promote conservation of combustible fuel S through the introduction of such measures as efficient wood and dung burning stoves, dwelling weatherization, and possibly solar cookers and water heaters. It is too early yet to guage the success of this project, but it can at best be only a pilot effort. Based on, and growing out of, these and other beginnings must be developed a fuller understanding of the rural energy situation and a more integrated approach to improvi ng it.
Urban Households.
The predominant fuels used by urban households are coal and kerosene. Coal stoves are widely used for heating and cooking during the winter months. Kerosene is used for lighting, for cooking when coal is not used, and occasionally for water and space heating. Most of the urban areas have been electrified since the late 19605, and about 9% of urban households use electricity which may sometimes be used for space heating as well as lighting, water heating, and for other appliances. Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) is also used by some households for cooking and heating. LPG appears to be growing in popularity, spurred partly by vigorous promotion by the oil companies. Estimates of urban household commercial fuel consumption are provided in Table 3.10. In addition to the commercial fuels, a significant amount of firewood is also used in the towns. The quantitative estimates in Ln m m m 0 m N m -3 i 0 W 4
0 0 0 m 0 U3 m m 5 d N N Z
"l W "l "l S Ln W aJ K a, W c L 0 S C-' S S C-' S 5 0 0 0 E C-' C-' Tf C-' .r- 5 C-' N N 0 i Z "l W
"l L c0 C-' 2 4 73 Sa 0 0 0 Ln q: m 0 CO CO Z r. rl m 7-
C-' "l "l aJ aJ 3 m D .r- "l .. W "l CL aJ v.- v v m a F-- 5 L 0 K 0 5 C-' 3 0 3 L 0 0 0 3 n 0 0 b... v, TABLE 3.10
Urban Household
Fuel Consumption 1980
Percentage Annual Consumption Total Sector of Households Per Household Using Fuel Consumption Fuel Using Fuel Physical Units GJ Million GJ
Coal 75 1 tonne 29.3 0.66
Paraffin 100 270 l iters 9.5 0.28
Firewood 20 2 tonnes 32.0 0.19
Electricity 9 6480 gwh 23.3 0.06
LPG 5 155 kg 70 0.01
Total N A N A NA 1.20
Sources: Bureau of Statistics, Unpublished Statistics, Lesotho Electric Company;
Bureau of Statistics, 1973. Table 3.10 are my own for the purpose of completing the household consumption profile; they are meant on1y to il l ustrate that there still is significant consumption of firewood in the urban areas. The sources of this wood are not clear. A certain amount is imported from South Africa.
Land Potenti a1 and Forestry.
Classifying Lesotho 'S land area by agricul tural capabil i ty is a compl ex undertaking because variations along several gradients must be taken into account: soil type, slope, a1 ti tude (with which temperature is strongly correlated), and rainfall. Lesotho Agricultural Sector Analysis (LASA) establ ished a l and use inventory based on USPA land capability classes taking into account soil type and slope. Following in Table 3.11 is a summary table of LASA classification of Lesotho's l and by elevation zones (as reported in World Bank, 1980, Annex 4, p.2). In the LASA scheme classes I and I1 include land with few to moderate limitations for cultivation. Only 3.7% of the land falls in this category. Classes I11 and IV, constituting 9.7% of Lesotho's land, have significant to severe limits for crop use. Another 84.3% of Lesotho is low potential land, unsuitable for arable crop production, while 2.5% is unavailable for agriculture being either densely populated or bodies of water. An earlier study suggests 12.2% of the l and is unsuitable for any type of agricul ture (Bawden and Carroll , 1968). Lesotho's climate is sub-humid, with warm wet summers and cold dry winters. About 80% of the rain falls during the six summer months (November to April), and this rain supplies moisture for the bulk of the crop. Average annual rainfall varies considerably across regions. In the lowlands it varies from 820mm (655 mm summer) in the north, to 725 mm (540 mm summer) in the south, to as l i ttl e as 500 mm in the Sengu River Valley. Annual rainfall in the foothills is similar to the southern lowlands, while the high mountains to the east receive as much as 1300 mm. Unfortunately distribution of rainfall over time is erratic, both within a season and between years. The maldistribution increases from north to south. Annual variations range from 50% above to 50% below the mean, thus the risk of drought is more severe than implied by the average figures. This maldistribution probably has implications for forestry as well as for agriculture (World Bank, 1980, Annex 4). Because of the current virtual absence of forests in Lesotho, estimates of potential forestry yields are tentative at best. However, some guidance can be gained from the experience of the Woodlot Project. The Lesotho Woodlot Project was established in 1973. The project is scheduled to continue functioning in its current organizational and funding framework until 1985. It is joint1y funded by the governments of Britain and Lesotho and the Anglo-American Corporation of South Africa. 7 0 4- 6 0 C, 0 0 0 N+ 4
r- 0 m r-. +J N 0 0 0 0 m 4
l c 0E V) m*o v S4-W c C-' 3 V) m 00 1 C-' 7 "loo 0 m .- 3 V)om N N 0 0 0 m. 'S 10 W--m 3 cc 7-1 W W m 7 --Imm 3 4 r. N , . m c m 0 4 V) 0E U 7 C-' W F 4- m 0.c .F -4 ' S 00 I C-' *W 00 0 > 0"l 0 C mm o woo 0 m LL0 N0 .." cc -me d. 1G) mw 3 l N r.
L 0 - LC
V) G) C c .F m N0 W l r- m sal3 C m. 0 0 N 0 TN 4 6
E l V) S -0 S me Q0 .r- c4- LCO L m C-' m G) 0 01 c c a0 b0 m m 3 m. .r 0 kO, "O,E w m IE =m m~ I I I I r. N
U C-' V) Ch-' G) m a, V) L F G) 4: C-' .F m c D m L 7 W v m 7 CG)-' m U c Q 7 C-' L m m 6 0 W JU > 3 + a It is hoped that the work will continue beyond 1985. The FAO/African Development Bank is considering the possibility of funding an expanded afforestation effort, along the lines of the Woodlot Project but emphasizing greater village participation. The German government is also considering funding such a project. The total area planted by mid-1982 was 3,500 ha, and a planting rate of approximately 1000 halyear is planned for the next three years. Numerous species of the genera Eucalyptus, Pinus and Acacia (wattle) have been tested. The experience of the Woodlot Project with wattles has been that a1 though successfully grown in Lesotho and commonly found in the lowlands in stands predating the project, growth rates and volume production are inferior to those of selected Eucalyptus and U.Therefore, plantings of wattles will be restricted in the future, and emphasis placed on the other two genera. So far, the most successful species have been E.bridgesias, E. rubida and P. radiata. High hopes were at first held for the species E. viminalis but plantings of this species have been decimated by the snout beetle whose natural parastic wasp predator in Austral ia appears to be unable to thrive in Lesotho's higher, col der environment. Until recently, pines were primarily planted along forest roads for amenity purposes or as belts to separate different species of Eucalyptus. Some experimentation with intimate mixtures of pines and Eucalyptus were tried, but it was found that the Eucalyptus coula not zolerate competition. Eucalyptus trees have been emphasized over Pinus, apparently mainly because of the former's abil ity to self-regenerate by coppicing. However, pines have received increased emphasis lately, because they are better suited than Eucalyptus to higher a1 ti tude (foothills) sites as well as to man-ytes in the lowlands. It was found that badly distributed rainfall in 1979, and low rainfall (about 50% of the average) in 1980, p1 aced severe drought stress on the trees and resulted in growth rates considerably lower than hoped for. Conifers were less adverse1 y affected by the erratic rainfall. The Woodlot Project has achieved little success with planting above 2000 metres. A few species have shown promise at higher a1 ti ~udes,in particular P. ha1 ipensis, Cupressus glabra, and Pseudotsuga menriesii. However, project staff consulted expressed l i ttl e 37mismfor high a1 ti tude forestry in the near future. Land is made available for use in the Woodlot Project by villages, whose inhabitants then have the right to buy the wood when it is harvested. The land made available is land that is sub-marginal for agriculture, and generally even for grazing. About 30% consists of badly depleted flat l and and 70% of steep, rocky hillsides. The Woodlot Project has not attempted to plant trees in dongas - the badly eroded and rapidly growing gulleys found everywhere - although various soil conservation projects have successfully done so on a much smaller scale, and future projects such as the proposed FAO project may do so on a much l arger scale. The Woodlot Project has not been in existence long enough to generate re1i abl e estimates of average yields that can be expected from mature plots. However, staff reported that3i nitial harvests suggests yields in the lowlanjs ranging from 20m /ha (16 tonnes/ha) in the wetter north, to 12m /ha (9.6 tonn5s/ha) in the central area from Maseru to Mafeteng, to 5-7m /ha south of Mafeteng. (Sources of information for the forestry section include: Baines, 1981; World Bank, 1980; and FAO, 1981)
Petrol eum.
All petroleum products consumed in Lesotho are imported from the Republic of South Africa. There is no national oil company. Petroleum products are imported and marketed by subsidiaries of five multinational oil companies: Caltex, Mobil, Shell, B.P. and Total. Reliance on foreign oil means that world market oil price increases automati call y flow through to Lesotho and exacerbate the country's substantial trade deficit. Unfortunately, as a1l past efforts to locate petroleum deposits in Lesotho have ended in failure (although the government is continuing explorations on the slim hopes that some evidence of oil wil l still materialize), it appears that Lesotho will continue to import all its oil. Reliance on South African oil, in particular, has certain additional negative imp1 ications. First, because in recent years OPEC p01 icies have forced South Africa to buy the bulk of its crude on the spot market, South Africa has had to pay higher than average prices. This penalty is in turn added to the price Lesotho pays for refined products from South Africa. Lesotho also pays the premium charged by South Africa on all oil to help finance the SASOL synthetic fuel plants. Yet if in the future South Africa's oil supply were to be curtailed by an effective international boycott, Lesotho would almost certainly bear the brunt as the Republic would allocate to its own use scarce stockpiled oil and synthetic liquid fuels. In the light of this and in line with its general interest in reducing dependence on South Africa, the government of Lesotho has attempted to find an a1 ternative to total petroleum dependence on South Africa. In 1980, Lesotho managed to obtain some OPEC crude at concessionary rates and to have this oil refined in Mozambique. But then came the hitch. The oil needed to be transported to Lesotho by South African railway cars, since Lesotho owns no rolling stock of its own; South Africa flatly refused, probably because its own refineries had been working at less than capacity. Early in 1982, Lesotho began selling the oil, which had been sitting in Maputo, on theworldmarket. The government now seems resigned to continued reliance on South African oil for the foreseeable future. Statistics on oil imports are maintained by at least two government offices; their figures differ, in some cases substantially. For this study, averages of the two sources have been used. An important task as Lesotho develops a national energy plan will be to improve procedures for the collection and reconciliation of such statistics. Weak as aggregate fuel import (and thus consumption) estimates are, data on the sectoral distribution of fuels are even weaker - in fact, they are almost non-existent. To rectify this, in the interest of gaining a fuller and more accurate understanding of the demand for petroleum products, would require more cooperation between the government and the oil companies, whose own disaggregated sales statistics are in some cases not readily available in Lesotho because they are sent to higher level offices in South Africa. Increasing consumption trends can be discerned for each of the three most important petroleum fuels used in Lesotho: gasol ine (petrol ), diesel oil, and kerosene (paraffin). Gasoline. The rise in gasol ine consumption can be related direct1y to the rapid1 y increasing number of automobiles in Lesotho. This latter trend in turn is probably a result of increased income arising mainly from higher wages earned by Basotho gold miners in South Africa. Another contributing factor may be the extension in the last few years of good roads to parts of the country that previously were difficult to reach by car. The future demand for gasoline will be closely tied to the vicissitudes of the wage levels and number of migrant workers. Diesel Oil. Despite differing in absolute levels, especially for the most recent years, both petroleum data sources show at least a doubling of diesel imports between 1975 and 1.980. The bulk of this is probably due to the extensive road construction activities begun during the period. Other contributing factors are an increase in diesel transportation and, to a lesser extent, agricul tural equipment. The opening of the letseng-La-Terai diamond mine in late 1979, probably also entailed an increase in the use of diesel oil for industrial purposes. Demand for diesel oil by the commercial sector, primarily for heating, may have decreased during the last several years due to price-induced fuel switching and conservation. Several factors will affect the future demand for diesel oil. As current road construction projects are completed over the next few years, the significant fraction of diesel consumption attributed to the construction sector could decrease dramatically unless countered by new projects (such as the proposed Highlands Water Scheme discussed elsewhere). On the other hand, diesel fuel consumption for transportation is likely to increase steadily as more parts of the country can be reached by good roads. Consumption by the agricultural sector is currently a small fraction of the total, and is likely to remain so for some time, even though it is slowly increasing. Future trends in demand by the commercial and manufacturing sectors are difficult to predict. Both will be sensitive to the rate of growth of the sectors as well as to the price of diesel and competitive fuels. Paraffin. Paraffin is used by almost all households in Lesotho for some of the cooking and lighting, and more rarely for heating. Despite unanimous agreement among published sources (e.g., Gay, 1978, and Keeve Steyn, 1978) and individuals consulted, that more households throughout Lesotho are over time using more paraffin, the aggregate statistics for this fuel are particularly contradictory and confusing. One source (Bureau of Statistics, unpublished statistics) shows a steady upward trend. The other (Bureau of Statistics, 1980) shows consistently much higher levels of consumption, but with no clear trend and with suspiciously large upward and downward deviations from year to year. There is at present no way to reconcile the sources. The aberrations in the latter source are likely to be at least partly the products of weak statistical procedures. Yet this source is based on customs figures, while the other is based on voluntary reporting by the oil companies and may be less complete. The practice of averaging the two sources is followed for paraffin as well, although an even stronger caveat must be expressed concerning the re1iabil i ty of the estimate. Despite the conflicting indications, several factors point to the likelihood of significant increases in paraffin consumption over the last several years. These include cash incomes, greater access to paraffin due to better transportation and marketing, increased labour needed to obtain non-commercial fuels as pressures on the land grow ever greater, and a preference among younger women for more modern and convenient cooking methods.
-Coal Like petroleum, coal consumed in Lesotho is imported from South Africa. The bulk of the coal is used for domestic heating and cooking during the winter months in the urban areas; at other times, paraffin is preferred for cooking and lighting. A significant amount of coal is also purchased by various government divisions and by hospitals and the university. A small number of rural households a1 so burn some coal, and some coal is also used by informal industries. Table 3.12 contains a sectoral breakdown of the 66,000 tonnes of coal consumed in 1980. Currently little if any coal appears to be consumed by the tiny modern industrial sector. However, this may change over time; for instance it is planned that the national abattoir currently under construction will utilize coal-fired boilers. A1 though small deposits of coal have been detected in Lesotho, the outcrops are of inferior quality, the veins shallow, narrow and deepseated. It is unl ikel y that this coal wil l prove to be commerci a1l y expl oi tab1e, a1 though the government hopes this may not be the case and is still carrying out explorations. Lesotho will probably continue to rely on South Africa for its coal supply. TABLE 3.12
-1980 Coal Consumption By Sector
Urban Households 22,500 tonnes Rural Households 12,000 tonnes Informal Industry 8,500 tonnes Commercial /Insti tutional 23,000 tonnes
TOTAL 66,000 tonnes
Sources: Bureau of Statistics, Unpublished; Bureau of Statistics, 1973; Author's Estimates. Electricitv
Lesotho is connected to South Africa's electric grid and virtually a1l the electricity consumed in Lesotho is purchased from South Africa's Electricity Supply Commission (ESCOM). Electricity is distributed by the Lesotho Electric Corporation (LEC), a parastatal under the control of the Ministry of Water, Energy and Mines. The only production facility operated by the LEC is a recently installed set of small diesel generators (totalling less than l MW) in Qucha's Nek, a remote centre which is not connected to the grid. Otherwise, all electricity sold by LEC is imported from the ESCOM grid at three points: Maseru, Ficksburg Bridge, and Hendrick's Drift, with 1980/81 peak loads at the intakes of 17.8 MW, 1.5 MW, and 4.2 MW, respectively. The only other electricity generated in Lesotho is by independently run 100 KW-range diesel generators at several remote locations, serving clinics, schools, government offices and the like. The price paid by the LEC for ESCOM electricity, the bulk cf which is coal-fired, is extremely low: about .02 M/KWH in 1980 and still under .03 M/KWH. ESCOM tariffs have risen rapidly in the last few years because of coal price increases, and this year a1 so the use of 01 der equipment necessitated at least temporarily by the loss of imports from the Cabora Bassa hydroelectric complex in Mozambique. Nevertheless, the prices paid by consumers in Lesotho were held essentially constant from 1978 until early 1982, and are still quite low. Average unit prices paid by selected classes of customers in June 1982, prior to a 4% revenue hike, are shown here:
June 1982 Cl ass -- Revenue/KWH Domestic 0.054 M Small Commercial /Insti tutional .071 M Large Commercial .066 M Large Industrial .063 M
Between 1.977 and 1981, excluding sales to the DeBeers diamond mine at Letseng-La-Terai, total annual LEC energy demand (including losses) grew from 48 GWH to 78 GWH. This translates into a compound average annual growth rate of 12.9%. Over that period the number of consumers increased by an average rate of 9.4%/year. The following Table 3.13 displays the estimated 1980 breakdown of sales and customers by sector (excluding the DeBeers mine) : Sales to the Letseng-La-Terai mine constituted an additional 24 GWH, or about 26% of total inclusive sales. The future of this load is uncertain. It is likely that electricity demand will continue to grow at a rapid rate. However, the performance of the domestic - "l 73 7 0 +c 0 al "l V) X 3 L m o a, -1 m 0, o m S C, 0 m 0 d .F V) r. n N L 3 "L 3 U N3 i: 0 4 C, U +m 2 "l S aJ m 7 E m m L aJ r d m W 0 m m . . . S V) o C, m d m o 2 aJ 0 CU W 0 r wl- 0 d 73 m aJ Ln U m m h r -4 C, - a . .r- I m U 3 V) .r- W .F WL c --I C, C, m u V) W m r. r. m + 2: 7 . . 0 W m r. d W W m d i: 0 d WI 0 3 03 W m r3 m d h 7 a, C, m 'E? 2 E OC, C, .T 'F V) "l X Q3 3 0 JV 73 L *S , a V) V) .-+I Y a m U C-' m 7 7 "l- - 0 0 c- aJ c .c -m m r. ar al a, '.E L V) "l L -v, m m 3 33m _J 0 0 +J .F h - a, I 1 7- UL 7 L 2 L~J- n 0 S 7 U W=- m 1 m +J m m E E 4: F.- U n L L ET3 L + W L 3 0, OC 0 0 S m 3 E U vu LL l- economy, particularly the success of Lesotho at attracting productive investment and future trends in cash earnings (close1y tied to the number of migrant workers and their wage rates) are key relevant factors which are difficult to predict. Also, future ESCOM prices, or the cost of substitute power generated inside Lesotho, as well as the outcome of current LEC efforts to lower hook-up charges, will doubt1 ess affect future demand. Distribution of electricity to rural areas is currently l imi ted (almost negligible to the rural domestic sector), but LEC has initiated a pi1ot rural electrification programme and hopes to attract development aid to expand this effort. However, Lesotho's geography and poor rural transportation infrastructure make this an expensive undertaking. Some additional insight into the structure of the demand for electricity can be gained by examining sales to the largest customers. Excluding the Letseng-La-Terai diamond mine, the twelve largest consumers in June 1982, consumed 27% of total sales (again excluding the mine). Of these, ten are commerci a1 /institutional customers, three hotel S, two col leges, four government offices, and one office building - which probably accounts for almost one-half the sales to the commercial sector. The only industrial concern among the twelve are two flour mills which probably account for over one-third of all industrial sales (excluding very smal l concerns). This situation reflects the extreme1 y small amount of modern industry in Lesotho.
Hydroelectric Potential
Except for some possible small-scale hydroelectric power plants, intended to serve remote areas of the country rather than to feed into the central grid, the only current concrete hopes for generating electricity within Lesotho rest on the massive proposed Highlands Water Scheme. As mapped out in a 1979 pre-feasibility study, the project would divert water from the upper Senqu (Orange) and Milibamatso rivers, for sale to the water-scare, rapidly growing Pretoria-Wi twaterstrand-Vereeninging ("Vaal triangle") region of South Africa. On its course to South Africa the water would be harnessed to generate electrical power for Lesotho at three points: Palaneng, Tlhaka, and Lala. The project as conceived would be a joint venture between the Lesotho and South African governments. A joint feasibility study with Lesotho's portion being funded by the European Economic Community at $5.5 million, is to commence shortly. Preliminary estimates indicate a total cost for the project of $1.2 billion (1982 $) - astronomical by Lesotho's standards, a1 though South Africa coul d be expected to put up some of the capital. Even assuming a favourable feasi bili ty report, funding could we1 l be a roadblock. Estimated annual energy production for the whole system is 450 GWH (100 GWH of an estimated gross output of 550 GWH would be used to pump diverted water), which would probably meet Lesotho's needs into the next century. Installed capacity would total 205 MW, to be completed in four stages between 1993 and 2005 if construction were to begin as planned in 1987-88. The project is at best technologically complex and of course re1ies for financial viability on South Africa's cooperation. Over the last 30 years a number of projects along the lines of the Highlands scheme have been proposed but have fallen by the wayside, l argel y for p01 itical reasons, a1 though none have gone as far as the current project. The obstacles that lay between the current stage and beginning construction are still formidable. Large scale damming and diversion of rivers is a risky undertaking, in this case involving the construction of five storage dams, a pumping station, and a 100 km diversion tunnel. The feasibility report may well spell the end of the project; donors woul d presumably apply extreme1y rigorous criteria in deciding whether to fund a project of this scale. The social costs of the project should also be considered carefully. These incl ude the flooding of villages and cul ti vated l and, exclusion of the diverted water from possible use within Lesotho, and the concentration of Lesotho's limited absorptive capacities - technical, administrative, and economic - in one large, risky project. Yet the government is optimi stic that these obstacles can be overcome, and thus enable Lesotho to achieve a measure of energy sel f-re1i ance. As mentioned before, small diesel generators are used to supply electrical power to remote parts of the country. The cost of this energy is extremely high, presently as much as .40 M per KWH. The government and various aid donors are thus interested in, and have investigated the potential for, smal l -scal e hydroelectric p1 ants to provide cheaper electrici ty to these areas. A 1981 report by Sogreal identified nine sites at which small (less than 1 MW capacity) hydroelectric plants could be built at moderate costs. The study found that there is already a demand for electricity in these areas. It is being met by diesel generators which would be avail able for backup in exceptional1y dry periods if hydroelectric p1 ants were built. Further, the study concl uded that the avail abil ity of re1ativel y cheap hydroelectric power should he1 p stimulate the economic development of the centers and thus create additional demand. The French government has expressed an interest in providing at least partial funding for development of three of the most attractive sites. Other donors, particul arly the Taiwanese, have also expressed an interest in funding such projects. Several of the most attractive centers studied, along with selected projected costs (as estimated in 1981) and production statistics are listed: (See Table 3.14). The total hydroelectric potential of L-esotho estimated at over 1500 GWH/year by a 1976 Swedish report, could in theory meet Lesotho's electricity demand we1 l into the next century. However, it would be premature to speculate about the future economic reasonableness of developing this potential re1ative to the cost of a1 ternatives and the long-term availability of low-cost ESCOM electricity. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Baines, A. C., The Establishment of Woodlots in Lesotho, Lesotho Wood1 ot Project, September 1981.
Barcl ays Bank International Ltd., Lesotho, An Economic Survey and Businessman's Guide, 1981.
Bawden, M.G. and D.M. Carroll, The Land Resources of Lesotho, Land Resource Study No. 3, Land Resource Division, Department of Overseas Surveys, 1968.
Best, M. The Scarcity of Domestic Energy: A Study in Three Villages, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, Working Paper No. 27, Cape Town, November 1979.
Bureau of Statistics, Kingdom of Lesotho, 1972/73 Urban Household Budget Survey Report, October 1973.
Bureau of Statisti CS, Kingdom of Lesotho, Annual Statistical Bulletin 1980, Maseru, 1980.
Bureau of Statistics, Kingdom of Lesotho, Unpublished statistics (provided by K. Nyokong and E.M. Malekane).
FAOIAfrican Development Bank, Lesotho Conservation Forestry Project Identification Report, August 1981.
Gay, J.S., Domestic Fuel Sources and Consumption Patterns in a Lowlands Village in Lesotho, unpubl issed, 1978.
Keeve Steyn & Partners, The Supply and Distribution of Coal and Selected Fuels in Lesotho, preliminary report to Basotho Enterprises Development Corporation, February 1978.
Kizilyalo, H., Options for the Lesotho Economy in the Year 2000: Prospective P1 an A1 ternatives, Lesotho Central Planning and Development Office, February 1982.
Klein, G. and A. Wyatt, Solar Energy Experimentation and Training in the Mountains of Lesotho Phase 111, September, 1979 - April, 1980, Thaba Tseka Integrated Rural Development Programme.
Lesotho Electricity Corporation, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st March, 1981, and unpublished statistics. 14. Miljkovic, D., M.Mokhah1 ane, and W.H. Wal dorf, World B~~~/UNDP-~eam, National 1ncome Accounts of ~esotho: 1967/68 - 1979/80, Maseru, June 1981.
Noren, S. Report on Forestry in Lesotho, SIDA, July 1978.
16. Sogreal Consul ting Engineers, Devel opment of Smal l Scale Hydroelectric Power Plants in Lesotho Highlands, interim report, May 1981.
17. Third Five Year Development Plan 1980-1985, Kingdom of Lesotho.
18. US AID Project Paper, Lesotho Renewable Energy Technology, Project No. 632-0206, 1979.
19. Ministry of Water, Energy, and Mining, Kingdom of Lesotho, Estimates of 1980_1_81 Fuel Consumption, unpubl ished.
20. Worl d Bank, Lesotho Agricul tural Sector Review, Report No. 3039-LSO (2 volumes), 1980.
TABLE 3.12
1980 Coal Consumption By Sector
Urban Households 22,500 tonnes
Rural Households 12,000 tonnes
Informal Industry 8,500 tonnes
Commercial /Insti tutional 23,000 tonnes
TOTAL 66,000 tonnes
Sources: Bureau of Statistics, Unpubl ished; Bureau of Statistics, 1973; Author's Estimates. CHAPTER 4
MALAWI
b Y
Richard Scobey Currency Equivalents
100 tambala (t) = 1 kwacha (K)
1 kwacha = $1.07
1 Dollar = KO. 93
Abbreviations
CUC Coal Users' Committee
ESCOM Electrical Supply Commission of Malawi
OILCOM Oil Company of Malawi
SAR Staff Appraisal Report: Malawi Wood Energy Project
TR A Tobacco Research Authority ECONOMIC BACKGROUND
Malawi is a l andlocked country with a total l and area of 9.4 million hectares. The population is currently estimated at six million, with a high average growth rate of 3% per annum. More than 90% of the population is rural with a population density of 59 persons per square kilometre. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in Africa, with a gross national product per capita of $212 in 1980 (1). Agricul ture is the dominant sector of the economy, accounting for 43% of gross domestic product, 85% of the labour force, and almost all of the country's exports. Agricultural production comes from two subsectors. The small h01 der subsector accounts for 85% of total production and meets the national demand for food staples (maize, beans, groundnuts, sweet potatoes, and rice) while providing raw materials for industry (cotton and tobacco), and some export surplus. The estate subsector contributes 15% of the total production but accounts for 60% of all agricultural exports (tobacco, tea, and sugar). Malawi has made significant advances in economic and social development since independence in 1964. Despite its lack of mineral resources, high population density, and l andlocked position, the GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6% through 1978. Likewise, the Government has made impressive strides in meeting the educational, health, and other basic needs of the popul ation. Over the past four years, however, this economic situation has altered dramatically. The sharp rise in energy costs, the decline in world market prices for agricultural exports, the increase in interest cost in debt servicing, and poor weather conditions have exerted a depressing influence on the economy. In 1980 and 1981 there was virtually no economic growth, so that by 1981 GDP was 11% below its 1973-78 trend. Several sectors have been marked by a particularly acute deceleration of previous growth trends, including construction, financial and professional services, estate and small h01 der agriculture, and distribution. Other sectors such as manufacturing, utilities, and social and community services have been relatively unaffected. Only in the government sector has the rate of growth of value added actually increased. The value of both imports and exports has increased by 50% from 1977 to 1981, and the trade balance deficit has doubled from $31.5 million in 1977 to $62.5 million in 1981. This 1981 trade gap, however, is the lowest in four years. Since 1977 the country's terms of trade have fallen off by 47%, and from a base of 1970, Malawi was only 3% better off in 1981 in terms of her real capacity to import. While historically the overall government budget and the current account of the balance of payments have been maintained at manageable levels, since 1978 both have experienced a sharp growth in. def icit. The overall deficit increased to $124 mill ion in 1981, which is 16% of monetary GDP at current market prices. The 1981 balance of payments deficit was $111 million, which is 9% of GDP. The overall deficit has been financed primarily by domestic borrowing, which has acutely restricted the banking system's ability to extend credit to the private sector. In addition, Malawi has been borrowing heavily abroad, often on severe terms in international commerci a1 markets. Consequent1 y, the external debt has been steadily increasing. In 1981, the Government paid $25.1 million in interest payments and $41.1 million in principal repayments, and faced a debt service ratio of 20%. Inappropriate domestic policies have worsened Malawi's economic position. In particular, budgetary controls and economic planning have been inadequate, ill-conceived large public works projects have drained foreign exchange, mismanagement of parastatal organizations have undermined both public and private sector corporations, and low producer prices have inhibited domestic food production and export growth. Recognizing the severity of these problems, the Government has recently embarked on an economic recovery plan designed to strengthen its balance of payments position and improve its efficiency in resource allocation. With the assistance of a $45 million structural adjustment loan from the World Bank, the Government intends to diversify the export base, stimul ate import substitution, improve price incentives, improve the financial performance and institutional efficiency of public sector enterprises, and strengthen the national economic planning and moni toring capacity (2 ) .
CURRENT ENERGY BALANCE
In 1980 Malawi's total primary energy requirement was 142.89 petajoules (PJ) or 3.39 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) (3). The main source of this energy was fuelwood, which accounts for almost 90% of the primary energy supply. When a1 loviance is made for different end-use efficiencies, this traditional fuel still provides more than 70% of the country's final energy consumption. Other traditional fuels such as maize stalks, bagasse, and cotton seed husks provide an additional 6% of final energy needs. Commercial fuels account only for 8% of the country's primary energy requirement, a1 though wi th their re1ativel y higher burning efficiencies they contribute almost one-quarter of the "useful " energy requirements. Petroleum products supply the bul k of commercial energy final consumption (57%), with hydro-electricity (26%) and coal (17%) making up the remainder. Since the mid-1970 'S, the growth rate of commercial energy consumption has significantly declined, for several reasons. First, the Government has not subsidized any of the commercial fuels and has regularly passed on price increases to final consumers. Second, the sectors that have experienced growth, agriculture and re1ated processing industries, do not rely heavily on cornmerci a1 energy. Third, many comrnerci a1 energy consumers have improved their efficiency of energy use to reduce their total demand. However, despite the small increase in the consumption of commercial energy since 1975, the energy import bill has almost trebled to $60 million and the oro~ortionof export earnings used to import energy has increased'to 23% in 1980. The different traditional and commercial fuels are strongly associated with specific sectoral demands. For example, the household sector overwhelmingly relies on firewood and crop residues to meet its energy needs, and this demand accounts for ha1 f of national fuelwood consumption. The remaining ha1 f comes from the tobacco industry, which uses wood for drying and curing l eaves. Oil imports are predominantly used in transportation and the operation of industrial pumps and engines. Coal is used almost exclusively for industrial process heating and steam raising. And electricity is used primarily for operating electrical machinery and secondarily for lighting, heating, and cooking in urban areas.
NON-COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Fuelwood
Malawi's total3 fuelwood demand for 1980 has been estimated at 10.3 million m (117.71 PJ) (4). The major consumers of fuelwood include households, tobacco estates, institutions, and i ndustri a1 enterprises. House2old demand for fuelwood, estimated in 1980 at 5.1 million m (58.29 PJ), accounts for half the national fuelwood consumption. This domestic demand comes largely from the rural sector, where fuelwood is used almost exclusively to perform all energy-consuming activities. A recent energy survey of 2,400 farm families conducted by the Minist.ry of Agriculture highlights the importance of fuelwood in rural l ife (5). The results indicated that 98% of all rural households use firewood as the primary fuel for cooking, heating water for washing and bathing, making tea, and brewing beer; and 90% or more rely on firewood for curing tobacco and keeping warm. The only non-wood fuel used in rural homes is paraffin for lighting. Other energy sources p1ay an insignificant role. Commercial forms of energy such as electricity and bottled cooking gas are not used by any measurable part of the rural population. Even such a1 ternative traditional fuels as charcoal, crop residues, and animal dung are used sparsely. While commercial fuel use is more common in urban centers, most urban residents rely on firewood and charcoal for cooking, heating water, and space heating. In fact, the average annual fuelwood consumption per head is probably greater in the towns than in the rural areas, as large amounts of charcoal are marketed in the cities of Blantyre and Lilongwe which are inefficiently produced in traditional earthen kilns. Due to the small size of the urban population, however, the urban fuelwood demand is a smal l fraction of total household consumption. The tobac o industry is the other large wood consumer, using 4.8 million m' (54.86 PJ) in 1980 for curing tobacco leaves (6). Almost two-thirds of this fuelwood was consumed by estates and commercial farmers, and slightly more than one-third by smal l h01 ders. The tobacco industry is regarded as an inefficient wood user. The Tobacco Research Authority (TRA) estimates that the amount of wood onsumed per kilogram of flue-cured tobacc ranges between .02 mS in the most efficient estates to .l3 m5. in the least efficient - a range of almost 7 to 1. Thus by improving the efficiency of furnaces and barns, the TRA estimates that aggregate fuelwood requirement for f l ue-cured tobacco could be reduced by 50%. Other important users of fuelwood are industrial enterprises such as tea factories, bakeries and brick-burners, and public institutions such a2 school S, hospital S, and prisons. They consumed .4 million m (4.57PJ) in 1980, 4% of the total fuelwood demand (7). This overall demand for fuelwood varies significantly by region. The densely populated and tobacco growing Central Region uses 52% of Malawi 'S total fuelwood requirement, while the less developed and sparse1y populated Northern Region uses on1 y 7%.
Aaricul tural Residues
While agricultural residues make only a smal l contribution to Malawi's overall energy supply mix, they are becoming an increasingly important energy source for rural households. As the firewood crisis grows more severe and families walk farther to collect wood, many turn to maize stalks and cobs as an a1 ternati ve fuel . For exampl e, the rural energy survey indicated that secondary cooking fuels such as crop residues were used by 52% of the households who walked four or more miles, as opposed to 23% of the households who found wood within half a mile of their homes. While little work has been done to quantify the amount of crop residues used in rural areas, it is estimated that annual consumption amounts to 2.53 PJ. Agricultural residues are also used in small quantities in the industrial sector. Two sugar estates annually consume 350,000 tons of bagasse (3.49 PJ) to generate steam and power for plant operations. In addition, a cotton seed processing plant uses 5,2000 tons of cotton seed husks (.08 PJ) to power a boiler.
Other Energy Sources
While a number of entrepreneurs and Government departments are exploring Mal awi 'S potential renewable energy resources, there is currently no widespread use of solar energy, photovoltaic cells, biogas, or other renewable technologies.
NON-COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLY
Firewood
About half of Malawi's land area, five million hectares, is covered by indigenous forests and woodlands. Of this forest land, 20% consists of national parks and game reserves, 20% forest reserves and protected hill slopes, and 60% natural woodlands on customary l and. In addition, a small amount of l and, 80,000 hectares, is under exotic plantation management, of which about 54,000 hectares are a commercial pine forest. Since the cutting of trees in game parks and reserves is prohibited by law, fuelwood and poles are obtained either free of charge from customary land or by license from forest reserves. While almost all industrial and commercial users purchase wood at Government control led rates in reserves and p1 antations, more than 90% of the rural population collect their own wood free of charge. Most urban residents purchase wood or charcoal at town markets, a1 though a large number walk several miles outside the towns to gather wood for free. The total potential supply of fuelwood and poles from 3 Malawi 'S woodlands was estimated at 8.9 million m (101.71 PJ) in 1980 (8). Sixty percent of this supply came from clear felling of customary land, which is not a sustainable yield and diminishes the future stock. Since the country's tot 1 fuelwood and pole consumption was estimated at 12 million m' (137.14 PJ) in 1980, there was 3 apparently a national deficit of 3.1 million m (35.43 PJ) (9). The pattern of fuelwood supply and demand, however, varies significantly by area. In 1977 it was estimated that fourteen out of twenty-four districts had a deficit supply, ranging fr m 1.6 million m (18.29 PJ) in Lilongwe District to .05 million m' (.S/ PJ) in Chikwawa District (10). Generally, the Northern Region is the only area where a sust,ainable fuelwood supply currently exceeds the level of consumption. Despite the large size of the present deficit, few households in the rural areas feel the firewood problem to be acute. One of the most striking conclusions of the rural energy survey was that the pattern of rural energy use remains largely unaffected by fuelwood shortages. Even households which find f irewood coll ection difficul t or which travel long distances for wood have not yet begun to perform fuel-consuming tasks less often. Only a small number of families have begun to purchase part of their fuelwood or make greater use of inferior cooking fuel S in response to wood scarcity. The fuelwood shortage has had limited impact on rural lives primaril y because Mal awi 'S wood1 ands have been producing more wood than suggested by the potential supply figures. The potenti a1 supply figures are based l argel y on sustained yields from uncultivated customary land and forest reserves - neither of which are yet under sustained yield management. In order to sustain accustomed level S of energy consumption, many smallholders have been encroaching upon these non-managed resources. In fact, the Ministry of Forestry and Natural Resources estimates that Malawi's natural forest cover is currently disappearing in terms of gross area at 4% per annum. Over the past few years, the Government has taken several steps to increase the supply of fuelwood. First, through the World Bank funded Wood Energy Project, the Government has establi shed tree nurseries in rural areas, to encourage smal l holder p1 anting, and tree plantations in severe wood deficit rural areas and near main urban centers. Second, laws have been promul gated that require tobacco growers to raise a certain portion of their fuelwood needs. Third, the Ministry of Forestry and Natural Resources has been introducing management of forest resources on customary land and intensification of management in gazetted reserves. These measures have had limited success. The demand for seedlings at the rural nurseries has fallen far short of projected targets, largely because smallholders do not perceive the fuelwood supply as a problem and, therefore, are unwilling to purchase and plant seed1 ings. While the urban and rural fuelwood p1 antations have been successful l y p1 anted, their estimated annual production will account for only about 5% of the total commerci a1 demand for fuelwood. Moreover, few tobacco growers have complied with the regulations regarding fuelwood production and the Government has not enforced them.
Agricul ty11 Resi dues
Large amounts of agricultural residues (maize cobs, maize and sorghum stovers, tobacco and cotton stal ks, and groundnut haulms) are found throughout the rural areas at the end of the harvest. The residues are used primarily as a dry season livestock feed and only rarely as fuel. In fact, in areas where there is much livestock pressure on land, crop residues are bought and sold as feed. When it is time to prepare the new fields for p1 anting, farmers will burn any remaining residues left by the foraging cattle, to get rid of bulky materials that are difficult to incorporate into soil and as a disease control measure.
COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Petrol eum Products
The largest user of petroleum products in Malawi is the transport sector, accounting for 56% of the total petroleum consumption of 147,400 toe (6.69 PJ). In fact, this share, 80,600 toe (3.90 PJ), may be somewhat higher because some unquantified proportion of the diesel sales to industry is for running company vehicles. This high share of petroleum consumption reflects the fact that the private car fleet in Malawi has a much higher proportion of larger engined vehicles than is the case in most developing countries. Likewise, the petroleum demand is increased by the extensive practice of using heavy fuel consuming, four-wheel-drive vehicles in urban areas. The other large consumer of petroleum is industry, which uses 60,400 toe (2.74 PJ) and accounts for 41% of total use. Although kerosene is widely available, few households can afford to use it extensively, and direct household demand accounts for only 4% of the consumption of petroleum product. The use of petroleum products has grown very slowly over the past five years, averaging 1% per annum. Jet fuel and kerosene consumption have dropped sharply in response to rising prices aad supply uncertainties. However, gas01 ine and diesel (which now account for 85% of the total sales volume) have showed positive rates of growth, reflecting the strong performance of the sectors in which these ~roductsare used.
Electricity p-
Malawi consumed 354 GWh (1.27 PJ) in 1980 and has one of the lowest per capita electricity consumption rates in the world, 64 KWh per annum in 1980. There is no large scale programme of rural electricification and only 2% of the population has access to electricity. Almost three-quarters of all electricity sales are to industry, 16% are to households, and 11% are to the commercial sector. The number of consumers and total electricity consumption have been increasing greatly in recent years. Since 1975, total sales have grown at an average annual rate of 8%, with household and commercial sales growing at slightly higher rates. Coal
Malawi consumed 46,600 tonnes of coal (1.37 PJ) in 1980, of which 90% was used as industrial fuel. Two firms (Portland Cement and David Whitehead Textiles) account for over half of total consumption and about twenty small industrial and commercial users account for the rest.
COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLY
Petroleum Products
Malawi imports all its refined petroleum products with minimal Government involvement through four oil companies. The largest of these is the Oil Company of Malawi, which has a two-thirds share of the market. The products are generall y brought in through the ports of Beira and Nacala in Mozambique, and are shipped by rail to Blantyre and other centers. Interruptions in the supply of petroleum arising from derailments, coll i sions, and terrorist actions have repeated1 y disturbed the Malawi economy. A recent analysis of the effects of the closing of the Beira rail line for several weeks in 1979 indicates that the economy may have lost almost $7 million as a resul t of the supply disruption. Similarly, the 1981 gas01 ine shortage virtually grounded the entire transportation sector for one month. Developing a re1iable system of petroleum supply has become a high priority to the Government. In fact, the Government last year commissioned a consultant study of the subject, which outlined a programme of strategic storage reserves, diversified sources of supply, stream1 ined supply operations, and a contingency allocation p1 an for shortages (11). Recent exploration work suggests that Malawi may possess natural gas or oil deposits under the Lake. While Shell Oil has obtained a l icense to research Malawi 'S hydrocarbon potential, it is unlikely that any deposits would prove to be commercially viable; the landlocked nature of the country and the depth of the Lake would render the development of any deposits difficult and costly.
Electricity
Electricity is generated almost entire1y from domestic hydro resources, all of which are located on the Middle Shire River. The current installed hydro capacity of this river is 124 MW and the current energy generation is 412 GWh (1.48 PJ), while the hydro potential is estimated at 500 MW and the potential energy production at 3500 GWh. A number of other rivers also have substantial hydro potential. The Electrical Supply Commission of Malawi (ESCOM) is the sole distributor of electricity in Malawi. It runs not only the interconnected system based on hydro and backed up by a 15 MW gas turbine and 6 MW of diesel generators, but also 2 MW of isolated diesel plants in the north outside of the interconnected system. In addition to ESCOM's operations, an estimated 24 MW of private generating plants are located at estates, religious missions, and Government buil dings .
Coal
Malawi imports about 45,000 to 55,000 tonnes of coal annually, primarily from Mozambique and South Africa and secondarily from Zimbabwe and Zambia. The Coal Users Committee (CUC), an independent association of almost all the users, organizes the import, distribution and a1 location of coal suppl ies. While coal imports have suffered simil ar transit disruptions to petroleum, the CUC has effective1y managed the supply. Malawi has five known deposits of coal, which could alleviate dependence on imports. These reserves, however, are small, of poor quality, and are distant from domestic markets. It appears, therefore, more economical to continue importing coal from neighbouring countries than to produce low quality coal at a high cost.
Ethanol
An ethanol distill ation p1 ant current1y being constructed at the Dwanga Sugar Estate is expected to produce 6 million litres (.l8 PJ) per year, which will be marketed throughout the country in a 13:87 ethanol-gasoline blend. The Government is investigating the possi bil ity of expanding the feedstocks for ethanol production to include crops such as cassava.
MALAWI'S ENERGY FUTURE
Projection Assumptions
Energy supply and demand patterns are affected by a number of economic, demographic, cul tural , and p01i tical variables. The following discussion of Malawi's energy future rests on two assumptions concerning the evolution of these variables. First, with increasing life expectancy, declining infant mortality, and no family planning services, Malawi can expect to maintain an annual population growth rate of 3%. The country's arable land can sustain an estimated population of 10.2 million, which would be reached at the current rate in the years 1995-2000 (12). Second, future prospects for economic growth are limited and Malawi cannot expect to return to its high pre-1979 growth trend in the near future. Assuming that the rise in the prices of commercial energy and manufactured goods and the drop in demand for primary agricultural products are permanent changes in the world economy, Malawi can only anticipate an annual growth rate of 2% to 3%.
Fuel wood
Fuelwood will undoubtedly remain the major energy source for the foreseeable future. The SAR estimates hat total demand for fuelwood will inc ease from 10.3 million m' (117.71 PJ) ig 1980 to 12.1 million m' (138.29 PJ) in 1990 to 15.4 million m (176 PJ) in 2000, an average annual increase of 2.5% (13). These projections assume that per capita domestic fuelwood consumption will decline by almost 25% due to greater use of wood-saving stoves and greater awareness of the economic value of wood among the population. They also assume that tobacco production will slow down after 1985, while tea manufacturing and brick-burning will slowly expand. However, the projections allow for no improvement in the efficiency of wood use in the tobacco industry. Since work is currently underway that could reduce the amount of wood used in tobacco barns by up to 50%, the total demand may be overesti ated and demand in 2000 could be approximately 13 million m' (118.57 PJ). Whatever future demand may be, it will continue to far exceed Malawi's supply. The Ministry of Forestry and Natural Resources estimates that the potenti a1 supply of fuelwood and 3 poles of 8 9 million m (101.71 PJ) in 1980 wil13drop to 5.4 3 million m '(61.71 PJ) by 1990 and to 4.2 million m (48 PJ) by 2000, due to the increasing depletion of 3standing stocks. Therefore, the current deficit of 3.1 rnilliog m (35.43 PJ) could grow to a staggering size of 13.9 million m (158.86 PJ) in 2000 (14).
Petroleum
Assuming that international energy prices will return to high levels, Malawi is not expected to significantly increase energy imports over the next two decades. In fact, several oil companies be1 ieve that the total demand for petroleum products may drop over the next five years because of the impact of ethanol production and the substitution of coal for gasoil in the industrial sector. The World Bank estimates that total petroleum consumption in 1985 will be 137,000 - 158,000 toe (6.22 - 7.17 PJ) and in 1990 will be 152,000 - 174,000 toe (6.90 - 7.89 PJ). Electricity
Increasing reliance on hydropower will probably be the only major change in the future pattern of commercial energy use. ESCOM assumes that total demand for electricity will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 6% to 8%. While the domestic and commercial sectors are projected to grow at slightly higher rates than the industrial sector, industry will continue to dominate demand. ESCOM estimates that electricity sales will increase in 1985 to 491 GWh (1.77 PJ) and in 1990 to 656 GWh (2.36 PJ). ESCOM should have no difficul ty in meeting the increasing future demand. It plans to add a 20 MW unit in 1985 (increasing total hydro capacity to 144 MW) and another 20 MW unit in 1986-87 (increasing hydro capacity to 164 MW). By 1990, ESCOM's total installed capacity will be 184 MW and total generation will be 729 GWh (2.62 PJ). Possessing a number of rivers with hydropower potential, Malawi will have little trouble developing future generation projects for capacity expansion in the 1990's.
-Coal Future demand for coal is expected to increase, although coal will continue to contribute only a smal l portion of Malawi 'S total energy requirements. The growth of consumption will stem from increased production in existing users as well as conversion from diesel to coal in small and medium sized industrial plants. The World Bank projects a total coal demand in 1985 of 49,100 - 62,900 tonnes (1.44 - 1.84 PJ) and in 1990 of 55,500 - 73,300 tonnes (1.63 - 2.15 PJ).
Consumption Imp1 ications
By regularly passing on increases in international energy prices to final consumers and by refusing to artificially hold down prices, the Government has successfull y l imi ted commerci a1 energy growth. Future oil consumption is not expected to increase dramatical ly and Malawi 'S future energy import bill, while high and burdensome, should be manageable. In fact, if total export revenues grow as expected at 6% per annum in real terms, the country's proportion of export earnings devoted to importing oil may we1 l decl ine in 1985 from the 1980 l eve1 . Having successfully l imi ted the growth of oil requirements, the Government's main concern in the petroleum sector is to develop a more re1iable system of supply. The World Bank has outlined a possible energy strategy that includes the streamlining of existing transport arrangements, the developing of more appropriate provisions for h01 ding petroleum stocks inside the country, and the strengthening of energy planning insti tutions. While Malawi has escaped the more acute consequences of the Third World oil problem, it is entering a wood crisis of massivg proportions. The growing shortfall, rea~hing 9.4 million m (107.43 PJ) in 1990 and 13.9 million m (158.86 PJ) in 2000, severe1y threatens Malawi 'S economic, social, and p01 itical devel opment (15). As the fuelwood shortage grows, households will have to spend greater time collecting firewood, at the expense of other productive on-farm activities. They will be forced to reduce fuel use and cook less meals, which may decrease nutrition and health level S. They will have to spend part of small, a1 ready burdened incomes on fuelwood purchases. The consequences of the shortage will not only be limited to the household sector, as tobacco growers will be unable to obtain the fuelwood necessary for curing. The most damaging result of the fuelwood crisis will be the depletion of Mal awi 'S standing wood stocks and the consequent environmental degradation. The destruction of the natural tree cover will precipitate a host of conditions that reduce soil fertility, including increased water run-off, the washing away of top soil, siltation of rivers, and wind erosion. And at a time when a growing population will already be straining the productive capacities of Malawi's arable land, any decline in soil fertility and agricultural productivity could cause widespread hardship. The damaging consequences of Malawi's escalating fuelwood deficit necessitate an immediate and comprehensive wood energy strategy. To close the gap between demand and supply, Malawi must increase the wood resource base through wide-spread planting and improve the efficiency of wood consumption among the larger users. Malawi already has a number of projects underway designed to rebuild and conserve wood resources. Their success thus far, however, has been limited. Despite the availability of cheap, fast-growing seed1 ings at retail nurseries, small h01 ders have not been buying seedlings and raising woodlots. Despite widespread extension efforts, villagers have not turned to wood-conserving mud stoves as an alternative to traditional three-stone fireplaces. Despite recently enacted legislation requiring tobacco growers to raise trees for fuelwood, few have begun p1 anting. Despite the increasing difficulty of wood collection for households, Government plantations have been unable to sell their wood, even at highly subsidized rates. Any future wood energy strategy must address these real ities. Malawi needs not only a comprehensive energy p1 an that mitigates the worst effects of the coming crisis, but also a real istic plan that meshes with the social and economic life of the people. Future energy programming must reflect the perceptions and understanding5 of the villagers, the urban dwellers, the tobacco growers, the industrial enterprises, and not only the ideas and visions of energy planners and professional S. REFERENCES
The economic data in this chapter come from: World Bank, World Development Report, 1981, Oxford University Press, 1981; The World Bank, Malawi: Issues and Options in the Energy Sector, Report No. 3903-MAI, 1982; and Economic Planning Division, Office of President and Cabinet, Malawi, Economic Report- 1982, Budget Document No.4.
For a discussion of the World Bank's loan, see "Structural Adjustment Lending: Early Experience, " Finance and Management, December 1981, pp. 17-21.
Most energy data used throughout this paper came from the energy sector review conducted by the World Bank in September 1981 (The World Bank, Malawi : Issues and Options in the Energy Sector, Report No. 3903-MAI, 1982). Any data that comes from different sources will be noted.
The World Bank, Staff Appraisal Report: Malawi Wood Energy Project, Report No. 2625-MAI, 1980.
Energy Unit, Ministry of Agriculture, p-Malawi Rural Energy Survey, Malawi, 1981.
Staff Appraisal Report: Malawi Wood Energy Project, op. cit.
Ibid.
Ibid.
In calculating the total W od deficit, the demand for building poles (1.7 million m' in 1980 - Ibid.) is added to the demand for fuelwood since they bothderive from the same sources of supply.
Ibid.
Kocks Consult Gmbh, Feasibility Study of Fuel Storage, Draft Final Report, 1981.
Staff Appraisal Report: Malawi Wood Energy Project, op. cit. 14. -Ibid. Thg estimated demand for poles in 2000 is 2.72 million m .
15. Ibid. These deficit figures include demang for building poles, estimated in 1990 at 2.17 million m . INDEX TO ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:
SADCC Country Studies, Parts I and I1
In the following Index the letters in parentheses preceding the page numbers refer to the various countries cited, as follows: Part I, containing: Part 11, containing:
(A) = Angola (MO) = Mozambique (B) = Botswana (S) = Swaziland (L) = Lesotho (T) = Tanzania (M) = Malawi (Z) = Zambia (ZI) = Zimbabwe
Note: Parts I and I1 appear in "ENERGY ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA" Volumes 3 and 4 respectively Abbatoir (B) 85 Charcoal (A) 17, 18, 19, Acacia (L) 158 36, 53, 54; (B) 78; Acetylene (T) 108 (M) 176, 177; (MO) Aeromagnetic survey (B) 113 15, 20, 25, 28, 30, Afforestation (B) 117; (L) 34, 43; (S) 81; (T) 148, 158; (MO) 42; (S) 112 70; (21) 185 distribution (B) 99 136, 138, 139, 141, Agriculture (A) 14, 15, 20, fuel (T) 100 144, 146, 165; (21) 23, 34, 51; (B) 71, 76, supply (A) 23, 57; 183 82; (L) 147, 151, 156; (8) 95, 99, 116; (L) grill (S) 81 (M) 173, 175, 184; (MO) 15 1 refrigerator (S) 82 15, 24, 30; (S) 52, 55, Bitumen plant (T) 93 Chemical feedstock (T) 58, 67; (T) 91, 101; Black liquor (S) 80 116 (Z) 138, 139; (ZI) 175, solids (S) 70 machinery (ZI) 186 178, 186, 188, 190, 192 Blanket weaving (B) 112 Chitemene (Z) 135, 147 Agricul tural Blending plant (2) 164 agriculture (Z) 135, activities (2) 150 Boiler fuel (T) 108 147, 165 energy deman (B) 82 Botswana Chrome (ZI) 187 equipment (Z) 162 economv (B) 71-73 Citrus (S) 52 exports (S) 52 Climate (L) 156; (Z) 135 land (T) 104 Coal (B) 73, 78, 85, 99, processing industries 100, 106, 114, 118, (T) 106 119; (L) 148, 152, residues (M) 176-1 77, population (B) 67, 75 161; (M) 174, 180, 178; (T) 100, 106, 116 power company (B) 75, 181, 183; (MO) 7, 13, statistics (L) 146 79, 106 20, 34, 35; (S) 55, wood use (Z) 146 renewable energy tech- 61, 66, 76, 78, 81; Agro-ecology (B) 95 nologies (B) 78 (T) 94, 106, 108, 116; Agro-forestry (S) 81; (T) technology centre (B) (2) 135. 150. 152. 112: (ZII 209 73, 79, 82 ~gro-industr;al development Bottled gas (MO) 28, 40 (MO) 38; Brachystegia (MO) 28; (2) Air transport (B) 86; (MO) 147 based electrolytic 24; (21) 189, 190, 202 BRET';;~~~(B) 79 hydrogen (ZI) 187 Albizia (MO) 28 Breweries (B) 85, 100; (L) fired power plant Alpine vegetation (T) 101 151; (T) 93, 95 (MO) 38 Aluminun smelter .(MO) . 20 Brick works (B) 85. 100: fired thermal gene- Ammonia urea fertilizer (M) 176;'(~) 95 rating plants (ZI) (MO) 40 Buses (Z) 162 199 Angola Bushland (T) 89, 101 liquification (MO) Pol it~caleconomy (A) Business services (Z) 139 35, (7) 152 7 Butane qas (A) 17, 18; (B) mines (Z) 152 ~njmaldung (A) 19; (B) 73, 78;-(L) 153; (M) 176; producer gas (B) 99, 79, 97; (L) 148, 151, (T) 108, 114 112 153; (MO) 15; (S) 64, Users Comm~ttee (CUC) 74; (T) 116 Calcium carbide (T) 108, (M) 181 Animal power (B) 111, 117, 116 121 Candles (B) 73, 79, 112; ~nthracitecoals (S) 76 (MO) 18; (S) 62 Col ophospermum nlophane Aquatic grasslands (B) 67 Candlewax (L) 138 (MO) 28 Asbestos (S) 52, 55; (ZI) Canned fruit (S) 52 Combretaceae (MO) 28 187 Canning (B) 85 Combretum apiculatum (B) Ash fuel (L) 152 Capital goods (Z) 165 9 5 Atriplex nummularia (E) 99 CARBOMOC (State Mining Comnercial activit~es(21) Average annual consumption Company) (MO) 35 190 or fuels in mlning Carbon monbxide (T) 108; agriculture (2) 147, (Z) 157 (ZI) 185 165 Avgas (B) 86, 88 CAPCO (Central African energy (M) 175, 180, Aviation fuel (MO) 23, 40 poker Corporation) 183; (S) 67; (T) 106, (ZI) 204, 208 110, 117; (Z) 139; Bagasse (M) 174; (S) 58, Cashew nuts (MO) 13 (ZI) 192 80; (T) 116 Cassava (T) 101 energy consumption Balance of payments (MO) Cattle (T) 89 (S) 55, 58 l !l grazing (Z) 135 energy demand (B) 86; Cement (A) 10; (B) 85, (L) 146; (M) 175 100; (T) 106; (2) 152 energy sources (MO) Beira-Mutare (Umtal i ) Central .~fricanPower 34 pipe1ine (ZI) 202 Corporation (CAPCO) farming (Z) 135, 138, Benguela (A) 15 (ZI) 204, 208 162; (ZI) 192 Beverage industry (S) 61 firewood (Z) 146 f irewood trade (7) 144 Drainage system (Z) 135 demand (MO) 25, 42; fuels (L) 153; i~j175; Drum reconditioning plant (S) 55, 58; (Z) 164 (WO) 42; (T) 106; (Z) (7) 164 future (M) 181 157; (ZI) 189, 192 ~raughtlpower(B) 83 imports (S) 67 plantation (MO) 34 Dung (T) 104 Issues and concludions woodfuel (Z) 144 Owanqa Suqar Estate (M) (A) 51-57 Comunication (MO) 44; (L) planning (L) 148 139 policy (MO) 38 Conservation (T) 109 Ecolog~calbreakdown (MO) potential demand of Construction (B) 85: (L) 28 (A), . 13 146, 148;'(i0) 30; ' capacity (T) 89; (ZI) production (L) 165, (T) 91; (Z) 146; (ZI) 192 (M) 178 188 damage (A) 34, 54 requirement (A) 12 Copper (B) 71, 85, 100; sources (Z) 147 resources (A) 37, 51, (Z) 139, 164; (ZI) 187 Economic background (M) 55; (M) 180; (ZI) 173 Corn (B) 85 173; (MO) 7; (S) 51 substitution (8) 113 Cottage industry (T) 93 devel opmeht (T) 117 ; supply (MO) 24; (S) Cotton (A) 9, 14, 34; (M) (L) 169 67: (ZI) 192 173; (T) 104, 116; framework (S) 55 technology (MO) 43 (ZI) 38 growth (M) 182; (ZI) use (B).. 72. , 76 -ginning (ZI) 186 175 Environmental degradatron seeds husks (M) 174 trend (ZI) 173 (B) 99 Crop cultivation (L) 147 Economy (B) 78; (L) 141, implications (ZI) 209 residues (B) 73, 78, 146; (Z) 138; (ZI) Erosion (MO) 42; (S) 55; 79, 97; (L) 148, 152; 173, 178 (Z) 135 (M) 176; (MO) 15, 18; Electrical Engineering ESCOM (L) 163; (S) 76, 78 (S) 64, 74; (T) 94, Department (MMRWA) Ethanol (M) 181; (ZI) 202, 104; (ZI) 181 (B) 86, 104, 106, 110, 209 Crude oil (MO) 40; (T) 93, 111 production (S) 78, 82 114; (Z) 154 generation (T) 93; Eucalyptus (B) 98, 99; (MO) petroleum (A) 10, 17, (L) 147 25, 34; (S) 70; (ZI) 34, 44-48, 54, 55, 56; Supply Commission of (B) 114 Malawi (ESCOM) (M) Eucalyptus brldgeslana (L) Crustaceans (MO) 13 181, 183 158 CUC (Coal Users Committee) Electricity (A) 17, 18, 19, Eucalyptus 011 (S) 70 (M) 181 38, 51, 52, 54, 55, Eucalyptus rubida (L) 158 Cupressus glabra (L) 158 56; (B) 11, 73, 75, Eucalyptus viminal is (L) 78, 79, 81, 85, 106, 158 Deforestation (B) 95; (MO) 110, 114, 119; (L) ~x~ort;-(8)73; (L) 146; 28; (S) 64; (Z) 135, 148, 153, 163; (M) (MO) 13; (Z) 138 146; (21) 193 176, 179, 180, 181, routes (B) l18 Demography (Z) 135 183; (MO) 15, 20, 35, Destocking (S) 55 38, 42, 43; (S) 58, Farming (B) 71, 72, 83 Diamonds (A) 10, 12; (B) 66, 76, 80, 82; (T) Fertilizer (L) 152 71; (L) 146, 160, 163 93, 106, 108, 114; (2) Finance (T) 91 Diesel demand (Z) 152 136, 138, 139, 141, Financial resources (ZI) -fired stations (T) 93 146, 147, 150, 165; 178 fuel (MO) 40; (2)'162; (ZI) 178, 181, 183, -services (ZI) 188 (ZI) 180, 189 187, 209 Firewood (S) 61, 70; (Z) generators (L) 166; class (L) 163 136, 139, 141 (Z) 150 resources (MO) 35 Fish smoking (T) 95 oil (A) 23, 57; (B) supplies (ZI) 204 Frsherles (Z) 139 82, 83, 86, 88, 106, Supply Commission of Fishing industry (Z) 135 112, 113; (L) 160, 166; South Africa ESCOM wood use (Z) 146 (M) 176, 179, 180, 181, grid (L) 163, 165, Floodplain cultivation (Z) 183:.. (MO) . 23:... (S) 67 168 135 thermal power units End-uses and energy sources Food industry (S) 61 (Z) 147 (B) 76-79, 81 processing (B) 61 units (B) 82, 85 Energy balance (M) 174 production (B) 99; Domestic animal population consumption (A) 13; (T) 112 (T) 89 (T) 91, 106; (Z) 138, products (ZI) 186 consumption sector (S) 165; (ZI) 178, 186 Forecast of energy con- 58 consumption growth sumption 1980-2000 demand (MO) 38 (A) 12, 15 (T) 110 energy consumption (MO) consumption growth Forecasted consum~tionbv 15, 20; (S) 61, 66; (T) im~lications (M). . 183 energy source (T) li2 94; (ZI) 178-180 conventional supply of Foreign exchange (T) 108; fuel (ZI) 180 (B) 100 (Z) 164 market consumption (Z) conversions (B) 106 trade (B) 73, 104 157, 164 cost (Z) 154 Forest regeneration (MO) 42 Forestry (A) 23, 28, 34, 53, Households (L) 140; (M) 184; Kenya (B) 78, 82, 88; 54, 55, 57; (B) 77, 98; (T) 93, 97; (ZI) 180 (S) 76; (T) 101, (L) 156; (M) 177; (MO) Huambo (A) 15, 23 109, 117; (ZI) 188 30, 42; (Z) 139; (ZI) Hydrocarbon potential (M) Kerosene (A) 18, 19, 20, 175, 178 180 54; (B) 78-79; (L) Extension Section (MO) Hydroelectric mobile 140, 152; (S) 66, 78; 34 stations (A) 42 (T) 94: (2) 138. 141 Forests (MO) 28; (T) 118 potential (B) 117- Fossil fuels (B) 114 118; (L) 165 Fourth National Development power (Z) 135, 147, Plan (S) 55 15n Francistown (B) 75, 76, 80, Labour-intensive invest- 97 ment (ZI) 186 Fuel (S) 58 Hydroelectricity (A) 38- Land potential (L) 156 Fuelwood (A) 19, 20, 23, 28, 44, 56; (MO) 23; (S) Lands at satellite (MO) 36, 53, 54; (B) 73, 76, 76; (T) 108-109; (Z) 28 78-79, 81, 88. 95. 97. 169; (ZI) 208 Lamps (S) 62 loo, i16;'(~)-148;155; Hydropower (B) 121; (M) Law on Foreign Investment (M) 174, 175-176, 177, 174, 183; (MO) 38; (A) 8 182, 184; (MO) 15, 18, (S) 76, 82; (T) 93, Lesotho Agricultural 25, 30, 34, 43; (S) 112, 116, 118; (Z) Sector Analysis 51, 61-62, 64-65; (T) 135, 152 (LASA) (L) 156 97, 112; (21) 180-181, generation (T) 93 renewable energy 193, 196, 206, 209 potential (MO) 38 technology project consumption (MO) 20 resources (MO) 7 (L) 153 resources (S) 80 Light fuel oil (Z) 157 Future consumption patterns gasoline (Z) 157 and their implications petroleum (Z) 157 (T) 110 Liquid energy (T) 95 Future prospects (B) 113 fuels (T) 106 Imported petroleum pro- Liquor solids (S) 58 Gaborone (B) 75, 76, 80 ducts (T) 93 Livestock (B) 67, 71, 72, Gambia (B) 78 spiked crude oil 76, 82, 83, 111; Gas (B) 99; (MO) 7, 13, 38; (Z) 154 (L) 147 (T) 94; (Z) 139; (ZI) Imports (L) 159; (S) 52; Lobatse (B) 73, 80, 85, (Z) 139; (ZI) 187 9 7 Gaseous enerov iT) 95 Indigenous renewable ~obito(A) 15 fuels (ij i64 energy (T) 100, 109 Local water tables (ZI) Gas oil (Z) 157, 162 Industrial 196 Gasoline (L) 160; (M) 179; development (MO) 38 Loss due to Chiternene (MO) 23; (S) 67, 78; energy (B) 85 Agriculture (Z) 147 (Z) 162 energy consumption Luanda (A) 15, 17, 18, 38 Geographically (S) 62 (MO) 20; (S) 58; (L) Lubango (A) 15, 17, 42 Goats (T) 89 157; (ZI) 186 Lube oil recycling plant Gold (ZI) 187, 188 energy demand (B) 85 (2) 164 Grassland (T) 89, 101 energy expansion (B) Lubricant blending unit cultivation (Z) 135 119 (T) 93 Grass savanna (B) 67 piantation (MO) 34 Lusaka (Z) 135, 146 Grazing (S) 62 production (A) 9, 51; Grid system (T) 93, 109; (ZI) 186 Macro-economic con- (ZI) 209 Industry (B) 85, 118; (L) straints (B) 82 Groundnuts (M) 173, 178 148; (MO) 15, 20; (T) Maize (A) 14; (B) 83; 93, 97; (Z) 150; (ZI) (M) 173, 178; (T) Handicrafts (B) 72, 112; 188 104. 106 (L) 146 Institutional (MO) 15; husks (T) 116 Hardwood p1 antations (T) (S) 67 stalks (M) 174 101 energy demand (B) 86; Manufacturing (T) 91; (Z) Heavy fuel oil (S) 61; (2) (L) 146 139; (ZI) 175, 186, 157, 162 Iron (MO) 20; (ZI) 186 188 Household consumption (Z) ore (S) 55 activities (ZI) 190 141 industry (ZI) 186 demand (A) 15, 51, 54; Jet A-l (Z) 162 Maseru (L) 138 (B) 73-75; (L) 140, Jet-turbo (B) 86, 88 Meat (E) 62; (S) 52 156; (M) 175 Julbernardia species (Z) Melia azedach (B) 152 electrification (Z) 147 Metallurgical processes 150 (2) 152 ~xpenditure Survey (B) Kariba complex (21) 204 Metal 78, 80, 81 processing industries (ZI) 187 works (B) 85 Methane (T) 108 Non-household commercial Pot firina (T) 95 Methanol (T) 95 energy (Z) 165 Poverty 0at;m'Line Study Migrants (L) 140 Non-wood energy sources (B) 79, 81 Migration (Z) 136; (ZI) 189 (2) 136 Power-generation (ZI) 178 Millet (B) 83; (2) 147 NRSE (New and Renewable Power kerosene (ZI 204 Mineral Sources of Energy) systems (MO) 38 potential (MO) 7 (A) 57 Premium qasol ine (L) 162 Minerals (Z) 164; (ZI) 187 processing and storage Marketing Board (ZI) Oil (MO) 7, 13, 15, 40-44; losses (Z) 157 1 R8 (S) 51, 66, 67, 78, Producer gas (S) 61 ; (T) 82; (T) 91, 110, 116; 93, 106; (ZI) 209 (Z) 154, 165; (ZI) Propane gas (T) 108, 114 196 Prosopis juliflora (B) 99 (2)-175,-178,-l86 -fired stations (T) Protected forests (Z) 147 industry (ZI) 187 93, 109 Protective silviculture Ministry of Agriculture imports (M) 175 measure (MO) 43 (A) 20 lubricants (2) 164 Pseudotsuga menziesii (L) of Mineral Resources refineries (A) 56; 158 and Water Affairs (L) 159; (MO) 40 Pub1 ic administration (T) (MMRWA) (B) 66 Other conventional fuels 9 1 of Petroleum (A) 56 (A) 49, 55; (L) 148, Pulp industry (S) 55, 61 of Planning (A) 10 151 mill (S) 58, 70; (T) Miombo woodland (ZI) 193; industries (ZI) 188 9 7 (Z) 149 Overgrazing (B) 111; (S) Pulses (B) 83 Mopane woodland (B) 67 52 Mozambique National Hydro- Quarrying (Z) 138 carbon Enterprise Palm kernels (A) 9 (MO) 40 Pande gasfield (MO) 40 Rail link (S) 76 Mound cultivation (Z) 135 Paraffin (L) 161; (S) 66; transportation (B) MPLA (Movimento Popular (T) 94; (ZI) 180-181, 86, 88, 114, 119; para a Liberiacao de 183, 185, 202, 204 (T) 106; (ZI) 189 Angola) (A) 7, 9, 13, lamps (MO) 18 Railway companies (MO) 24 56 stove (S) 65 Rainfall (2) 147, (ZI) 193 Mu1 tipurpose trees (T) 117 Parestatal (Z) 154 Rand Monetary Area (S) 52 mining company (Z) Re-afforestation (S) 74; 157 (71) 196 energy balance (L) 148 Passive solar design (B) Real estate (Z) 139; (ZI) energy plan (L) 160 112 188 energy strategy (MO) 42 Pasture improvement (S) 55 Refined petroleum (A) 14, Natural forests (S) 74 People's Shops (A) 8-9 20, 23, 49, 51, 54, gas (A) 49, 55; (M) Petro-chemical/fertilizer 56; (B) 73, 85, 88, 180; (MO) 34; (S) 78; industries (T) 114 110, 113; (M) 179, (T) 94, 106, 108, 110, Petroleum (S) 61 ; (T) 108; 182, 183 112, 114, 118 (Z) 154; (ZI) 180, petroleum products resources (A) 12, 55 185, 199, 202, 209 (B) 81, 86, 104, 106, vegetation (T) 101; -based fuel or elec- 114; (L) 148, 159, (ZI) 193 tricity (21) 185, 189, 174; (M) 179, 180, vegetation resources 193, 199 182 (S) 74 demand (Z) 157 products (21) 202 woodlands (11) 196 imports (Z) 150 Refinery (MO) 40; (T) 93, woody vegetation (B) industry (Z) 162 114 9 5 prices (2) 139 capacity and consump- New and Renewable Sources products (T) 106, 109, tion (Z) 154 of Energy (NRSE) (A) 110, 112, 114, 157; (ZI) consumption (Z) 157, .5 7. 204 2 64 New energy sources (B) 116, Photovoltaics (B) 111, 116; cost (Z) 150 121 (M) 177 for used lubricants energy supplies (B) Pigs (T) 89 (2) 164 111, 116; (M) 181, 184 Pine cones (S) 74 Regional Nickel (B) 71, 85, 100; (ZI) Pinus (L) 158 energy planning (ZI) 187 Pinus halipensis (L) 158 173 Nitrogen (T) 118; (Z) 152 Pinus radiata (L) 158 integration (Z) 169 fertilizer production Pit mines (ZI) 199 Renewable energy resources (T) 94 Plantation forestry (T) 101 (M) 177; (S) 82; (T) Non-commercial energy con- Plantations (S) 62 109 sumption (M) 175; (S) Population (ZI) 173 natural resources (MO) 55, 58 growth (Z) 138, 165 30 fuels (T) 106 increase (Z) 146 Residual fuel (B) 106 ores industry (Z) 138 trend (ZI) 173 oil (MO) 20, 23 Retail (Z) 157 State Mining Company (MO) rainforest (21) 193 tradina (T) 91. 188 35 Turbine plants (Z) 147 Rice (M) 17j;'(i) 106, 116 Steam coal (MO) 35; (ZI) thermal power (A) 41 husks (T) 104 199 Turbines (T) 108 Road transport (B) 86, 88; Steel (T) 106; (ZI) 186, (L) 160; (S) 67; (ZI) 199 United Nations Women and 189 industry (MO) 20 Development Project transport fuel S (ZI) Stigler's gorge (T) 108 (S) 64, 80, 81, 82 202 Stoves (MO) 43; (T) 94 Urban demand (A) 15-19, Robina pseudoacacia (B) 99 Strip mines (ZI) 199 51, 56; (B) 72, 79 Root mass (T) 101 Strychnos (MO) 28 domestic enerov Rotation (T) 101 Sudan (B) 78 consumption (G)20; Rovuma Basin (MO) 40 Sugar (MO) 13; (S) 52, 58, (S) 65; (T) 112; (S) Rural development areas (S) 65; (5) 97, 104 R1 67-- cane (A) 9, 14, 34, energy (MO) 43 dwelling construction 36; (M) 173; (S) 78, fuelwood problem (ZI) (Z) 146 80 209 energy survey (ZI) 181 cane produced ethanol household demand (E) households (Z) 141; (MO) 40; (ZI) 202 81; (L) 148, 153; (ZI) 178, 196 estates (S) 74 (M) 176; (Z) 141; households energy con- production' (MO) 40; (ZI) 183 sumption (ZI) 180 (S) 67 ~rbanization(B) 75, 82; Industries Innovation Supply of conventional (Z) 136, 165 Centre (B) 73 energy (A) 36; (B) 75, Urban migration (2) 135 migration (L) 135 82, 119 population (L) 138; population (ZI) 173 Swamp (T) 101 (Z) 136; (21) 173 Swazi National Land (S) 52 USAID Rural Sector Grant SAOCC: Energy and Develop- Sweet potatoes (M) 173 (B) 66, 98; (L) 153 ment to 2000 (MO) 1, UNERG (B) 66, 77 8, 38. 43. 44 Tanesco (T) 114 transportation plans Tazama ine (Z) 154, Vegetation (ZI) 193 (ZI) 190 164, 169 Saligna grandis (S) 72 Tea (M) 173, 176, 182; (T) Waste wood (S) 70 SASOL synthetic fuel plants 95, 97, 101, 110 Water (L) 159 Textiles (21) 186 provision (L) 139 Savanna (T) 89, 101; (ZI) Thermal electricity (Z) 152 transport (T) 106 193 generating plant (ZI) Wattle (S) 62 Sawdust stove (S) 81 199 Wheat (A) 14 Saw milling (T) 106 power (A) 56 Wholesale trading (T) 91 Schinus molle (B) 99 -powered plant (ZI) 204 Wind energy (B) 114 Seismological study (MO) 40 Third Congress Economic erosion (M) 184 Semi-proletarianization and Directives (MO) 42 power (B) 111 energy poverty (B) 82 Timber (MO) 28; (S) 55, 58, Wood (MO) 15, 18, 20, 43; Service sector (T) 97 80 (S) 51, 52, 58, 62, Sheep (T) 89 Tobacco (A) 9, 14, 34; (M) 67, 70, 80; (T) 95, Sisal (A) 9, 14, 34; (T) 173, 176, 178, 182, 101; (L) 135, 138; 104, 116 184; (T) 110; (ZI) 186 (ZI) 178, 183, 192, Social serv~ces(A) 51 curing (T) 95 196 Softwoods (B) 97 Research Author1 ty energy (T) 94, 112, Soil chemistry (ZI) 196 (TRA) (M) 176 117 erosion (A) 36, 54 Total Demand (A) 20; (B) 75 -fired stations (T) 93 regime (Z) 147 population (L) 138 fuel (T) 116, 117, Solar cookers (L) 153; (L) Tourism (L) 146 (Z) 136, 139, 146-147, 165 Trad~tionalfuels (T) 91 dist~llat~on(B) 111 Transport (B) 113, 118; (M) fuel stoves (T) 109 energy (A) 57; (I?)114; 183; (MO) 15; (S) 66; land (MO) 30; (T) 89, (M) 177; (S) 80; (T) (T) 91-93, 100, 106, 101, 117; (Z) 144, 109; (Z) 135 110; (Z) 138, 139, 157; 147 power (B) 111, 114; (S) (ZI) 178, 180, 185, land loss (Z) 144 82 188, 189 Woodlands (21) 193, 196 Sonangol (A) 10, 44 Transportation (MO) 23; IZI) Woodlot developments (21) Sorghum 202 196 beer-brewing (B) 72, 78, energy (B) 86 Wood pulp (S) 52, 58 112; (M) 175 energy demand (E) 86 resources (MO) 28 stovers (M) 178 Tree planting projects (T) supply (S) 70, (ZI) South Africa (B) 78; (MO) 38; 109 193 (S) 51, 82 Trichilia-Schlerocarya- yard (S) 61 South African Customs Union Vapaca (MO) 28 Woody biomass (B) 95, 121; (S) 52 Tropical high forests (T) (T) 100-101 Spare parts (A) 52 101 Spiked crude oil (Z) 154 Zambezi basin (ZI) 199 Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) (Z) 150 National Energy Ltd. (ZNELI (Z) 154. 157 ~arnbia'scons01 idatid Copper Mines (ZCCM) (Z) 152, 157. -. Zambia Third National Development Plan 1979- 83 (Z) 164 ZCCM (Zambia's Consolidated Copper Mines) (Z) 152, 157 ZESCO (Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation) (Z) 150 ZNEL (Zambia National Energy Ltd.) (Z) 154, 157