The ANSO Report (16-31 January 2011)

The Afghanistan NGO Safety Office Issue: 66 16-31 January 2011

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Inside this Issue COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 2 The targeting of military and less than the 60% growth While the circumstances 6 Northern Region political leadership by both noted in the January 2009- surrounding the murder of Western Region 11 sides of the conflict was a 2010 rate comparison. a female NGO staff mem- regular feature of reporting in While this can be attributed ber in Parwan this period Eastern Region 14 2010. Early indicators sug- to a variety of factors, the remain unclear, it does Southern Region 19 gest that this year will follow key variables are the sus- mark the first casualty for in a similar vain, supported tained IMF/ANSF opera- the community this year. 24 ANSO Info Page by the killing of the Kanda- tional levels over the past As well, it accounts for the har Deputy Provincial Gov- few months as well as the first NGO incident to oc- ernor (IED strike) this pe- ‘saturation’ that has been cur outside of the North. YOU NEED TO KNOW riod. This incident also reached in many of the key Last year, this region ac- marks the most senior local contested areas. Nonethe- counted for over 40% of • Targeting of the political & official hit since the death of less, the January figures all NGO incidents, and military leadership by both parties of the conflict the Kunduz Provincial Gov- provides a glimpse into the January figures are sugges- ernor in October of last year. levels of instability to be tive that this trend will per- • 30% growth between January In addition, there was an at- expected in the coming sist into 2011, as also at- 2011 & 2010 AOG incident levels tempt against a District Gov- months. tested by the periods other ernor in Khost, also with an The ISAF operational NGO incident, this one in • ISAF operational tempo sus- IED. It is not unexpected Badakhshan. The likeliest tained throughout the winter tempo has also been sus- that these incidents occurred tained over the winter cause of this trend is the • NGO incident rates remain in the 2 most kinetic regions months, with this period existing blend of a perva- highest in the North (South & East) of the coun- being no exception. This sive NGO presence, multi- try and serves to illustrate offensive has been particu- ple contested areas, and a continued AOG efforts to larly prevalent in the North, leavening of active criminal ANSO is supported by destabilise/intimidate gov- South and East; where groups along many of the ernance structures despite the these efforts are being ex- major roads in the region. seasonal downturn in their pended in anticipation of The recent suicide attack at ‘military campaign’ this pe- the projected 2011 troop a grocery shop in Kabul riod. level reductions announced captured headlines and In regards to this, the mild previously. As well, these attention due to the profile winter and AOG strategic also mark attempts to dis- of the venue and the com- gains made last year has al- rupt AOG networks and position of those targeted. lowed them to maintain mo- supply routes prior to the The casualties included mentum during January. opening of the ‘fighting numerous Afghans and While there has been the ex- season’. Wresting momen- expatriates, this latter pected seasonal decrease tum from the opposition group primarily comprised (when compared to summer remains one of the key of staff from nearby em- months), this month still ISAF objectives and will bassies and ISAF facilities marked an est. 30% increase also serve as a metric for (please see Kabul section over AOG attributed events ‘transition’. for further analysis). last year. However, this is THE ANSO REPORT Page 2

C ENTRAL REGION

NGO Incidents KABUL KABUL Year to Date 0 50 This Report Period 0 The most significant incident re- 40 ported from Kabul this period likeliest scenario suggests an IEA- 30 was the dramatic AOG strike sanctioned operation with in- 20 against a grocery shop in Wazir volvement of the Haqqani net- 10 work, with the attack being Akbar Khan, a location popular 0 with the expatriate community. claimed by IEA as an operation On Friday 28 January in the early against the personnel of a promi- nent international PSC. The afternoon, a single suicide opera- KABUL AOG KABUL Crime tive entered the Finest Supermar- strike is suggestive of previous surveillance, efforts that would ket by a side street door, circum- come more vulnerable to such attacks. As of venting the adjacent ANP check- have identified the venue as a tar- get-rich environment, frequented yet, the probability of similar attacks being car- point and passing by armed ried out in Kabul City is assessed as low, with guards stationed at the entry. by perceived ‘legitimate targets’ such as armed personnel of Em- long-term patterns revealing that the over- Once inside, a fast chain of events whelming majority of AOG suicide missions in ensued with the attacker opening bassies or PSCs, though the strike did not affect any such targets (for the past targeted ‘legitimate targets’, primarily the assault with fire from a hand- ANSF and IMF. gun against individuals in his im- instance, no PSC personnel were mediate proximity. This was fol- reported amongst the casualties). While the security situation in Kabul Province lowed by the detonation of at least In this light, the PSC link men- has been praised by the IMF leadership as an one hand grenade against others, tioned in the IEA statement ap- illustration of on-going stabilization achieve- and ultimately concluding in the pears to be an attempt to justify ments, certain accomplishments, such as ca- detonation of his IED charge. At the attack post incident. The exe- pacity development of ANSF, a brief look into the time of writing, reports indi- cution of this event appears typi- data and trends indicate that despite such ef- cate that 9 people were killed and cal of a targeted strike, and pro- forts, AOG kept their activity at par, basically an additional 18 were wounded. vides ground for the assumption maintaining constant levels and distribution of Besides the perpetrator, the casu- that the primary objective of the armed attacks in the province over the last alties were primarily civilians, in- attacker was not to cause massive three years. For instance, in counterpoint to cluding an entire Afghan family of casualties. the combined 10 AOG attacks reported so far six. Foreign casualties largely con- Unless further investigation pro- in January 2011 (incl. the suicide motorcycle- sisted of civilian personnel from vides contradictory evidence, the mounted IED in Saraye Alauddin, and the lat- the nearby Embassies and IMF strike should be considered a ge- est BBIED strike), 11 AOG attacks were re- bases. 1 INGO staff member also neric targeting of expatriates in a pre- corded in January 2010 (including 1 SVBIED received light injuries. sumably high-profile and easily accessible strike and 1 complex attack with multiple BBIEDs). 11 incidents were also reported in Shortly afterwards, both IEA and location. The aforementioned fea- tures also constitute the starting January 2009 (featuring one suicide VBIED HIG claimed authorship of the strike against an IMF vehicle in Wazir Akbar attack. Whereas the involvement point for risk analysis and conse- quent identification of venues and Khan, and an IED attack against another IMF of HIG does not appear credible, convoy in Surobi). the IEA connection does. The timings where/when NGOs be-

NOTICE: The graphs provided in the report are accurate as of the 26th of January 2011. THE ANSO REPORT Page 3

NGO Incidents KAPISA KAPISA Year to Date 0 50

This Report Period 0 40 In total, 18 incidents have been reported from Kapisa, reflecting a sion of AOG willingness to chal- 30 continued lull in AOG kinetic lenge IMF-ANSF access while 20 attacks, accounting for only 5 thus limiting exposure to direct clashes 10 while in the west, IEDs often re- far. All of these happened in Ta- 0 gab District in the vicinity of the late to personal or community main road and the IMF base. On disputes. Three such cases were one occasion during this cycle, the reported during January 2011, KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime IMF FOB in Tagab received SAF with two cases alone in the past combined with indirect fire, while cycle. In the Mirkhel Area of Ko- histan I, an IED emplaced in a did not target the organization, but resulted a premature IED explosion was from an ongoing clash between two settle- also reported from Yatman, re- graveyard detonated and injured a father who was mourning his two ments, a dispute that has resulted in casualties portedly resulting in 3 AOG fa- on both sides. talities. sons who had recently been killed in a community dispute. In the IED activity remains a dominant second case, an IO vehicle was feature of the security environ- affected in a makeshift IED blast ment in Kapisa. This month, 9 on the road between Mahmudi cases of IED discovery have oc- Raqi and Koh Band in Karezi. curred with 5 in Tagab, 2 in Ni- Although the investigation of this jrab, and 1 each in Mahmudi Raqi incident is still on-going, the local and Kohistan II. In the east of community claimed that the blast the province, it is often an expres-

NGO Incidents WARDAK Year to Date 0 WARDAK 100 This Report Period 0 Compared to previous weeks, 80 Wardak has seen a lull in AOG dents, 14 combined incidents), 60 reflecting both more favourable activity, which can be explained 40 both as a seasonal break following climatic conditions this year, but 20 a long fighting season last year also, despite the IMF-ANSF tar- along with a recent gains in initia- geting efforts, a gradually expand- 0 tive by IMF and ANSF following ing command of AOG networks over large parts the province. their consistent targeting of AOG WARDAK AOG WARDAK Crime field leadership. So far, 43 com- During this cycle, Saydabad wit- nessed a dramatic complex attack bined incidents were registered in Village Stability Operations (VSO) and Local against a joint ANP/ANA convoy January 2011, of which 14 were Defence Initiatives (LDI), in particular the in- in Khwaja Ghronban Wali, which authored by AOGs. In counter- corporation of the APPF program into the point, December 2010 saw twice resulted in the deaths of three new roll-out of the Afghan Local Police (ALP) ANA soldiers and an additional 7 as many AOG initiated incidents program, should also be monitored for any security personnel injured. Dashti (28) of a combined 53 cases. ramifications it may have on the existing con- Towp, Salar, Tangi on the Kabul Nevertheless, the incident levels text. On the AOG side, the ‘spring offensive’ are still higher than those re- – Ghazni Highway, as well as Is- will tell whether AOG expansion in the north- mail Khel on the Jalrez Road, also corded in January 2010 (11 AOG ern part of the province will continue into saw major AOG activities during incidents, 37 combined incidents) 2011. and in January 2009 (9 AOG inci- this cycle. THE ANSO REPORT Page 4

NGO Incidents LOGAR Year to Date 0 LOGAR This Report Period 0 50 Latest reporting included a case of 40 Among these, two complex am- abduction of a driver employed 30 with the provincial Health De- bushes in Charkh occurred during 20 partment while he was enroute the previous cycle. As well, an with two IO staff and a health IMF patrol was ambushed while 10 department official from Puli defusing a road-side IED early in 0 Alam to Baraki Barak to monitor the morning in the Sher Khel health facilities. While more in- Area of Baraki Barak which re- formation is yet to be corrobo- sulted in one IMF casualty. Two LOGAR AOG LOGAR Crime rated, it was confirmed that this thirds of the incidents were equally distributed between the Babus and Qalai Ali Khan, as well as in individual was kidnapped in the Padkhvabe Shanah, south of the DAC. Deh Dushanbe area on Thursday districts of Charkh and Puli Alam. 27 January at 1000 hrs. Oddly, In the first district, AOG bore the NGOs should remain cautious when travelling the remaining members of the brunt of incidents, consisting of and undertaking activities in Logar. In regards monitoring team were not de- kill/captures of AOG by IMF. to area accessibility, larger AOG units have tained by the abductors, who were With an additional two AOG been spotted in the Teri Pass between Gardez reported as being AOG. strikes, all of these incidents were and Puli Alam, as well as in Kolangar. Among staged in the upper northern part anticipated developments, the district road The winter break has continued of the district within a short dis- from Baraki Barak towards Wardak will likely with a record low volume of re- tance from the DAC. In Puli be affected as a result of IEA preparations to ported AOG activity. In compari- Alam, the initiative was also on oust HIG from its positions in there, mirroring son to last month, January figures the side of the IMF and ANSF, IEA strategic designs from the neighbouring reflect a 50% decrease in overall with incidents distributed mainly Nirkh District in Wardak. However, in light of incident. between the Babus area and the IEA casualties in Nirkh (including the IEA A combined 17 incidents have environs north of Puli Alam. zone commander), it is possible that these been documented this year, with Prominent AOG operatives were units in Baraki Barak may be called in to sup- only 3 AOG initiated clashes. reportedly captured by IMF in port those across the border in Wardak.

NGO Incidents DAYKUNDI DAYKUNDI Year to Date 0 50 This Report Period 0 Daykundi remained calm this pe- 40 riod, with a single incident linked In an unrelated incident on the 30 same day, a convoy of ANP vehi- to domestic AOG reported from 20 the southern Kajran District. On cles destined for the ANP units in the morning of 25 January, AOG Gizab was attacked by AOG 10 attacked ANP checkposts on the while passing thru Chora District 0 main road between Boka and of Uruzgan. Although based in a Takha villages. During the opera- neighbouring province, a promi- tion, one AOG member was ar- nent commander in control of the DAYKUNDI AOG DAYKUNDI Crime rested by ANP. This strike has Uruzgan Highway Police had prolonged the series of recent been called in several times to aforementioned attack will be interpreted as a escalations in Kajran. Similar fight AOG in Gizab alongside personal affront against the commander, and AOG incursions will likely con- IMF Special Forces. The com- will spark retaliatory operations. Such a sce- tinue in the short term, partly due mander in question has a reputa- nario could in turn increase the motivation of to on-going AOG migration from tion for his extreme measures, local AOG to seek safe haven or safe passage Helmand and Uruzgan towards though is highly valued by IMF via Daykundi. Both Kajran and Gizab remain Ghazni and onwards to Pakistan. commanders for his effective- prone to AOG infiltration and retaliatory op- ness. It is highly likely that the erations in particular by IMF. THE ANSO REPORT Page 5

NGO Incidents PARWAN Year to Date 0 PARWAN This Report Period 1 50 On the morning of 27 January, 40 causal factor in this assault. In- the murder of a local female 30 trainer in the Sayadan Area of deed, in the previous period Par- Chaharikar opened the record of wan witnessed an arson attack 20 NGO fatalities in the Central Re- against a mixed, boys’ and girls’ 10 gion this year. The victim was a primary school in Qalakhel of 0 12th-grade student, employed by Kohi Safi, locally attributed to an INGO as a trainer in an on- AOG influence and reminiscent going & long-term training pro- of another case recorded in the PARWAN AOG PARWAN Crime gram for female teachers. Walk- district in 2006. Until more infor- ing with other two colleagues to mation is brought to light, it is ude to the fighting with an ambush and killing the training site, the trainer was judged prudent for local NGOs of the brother of a local commander enrolled deliberately gunned down by two involved in women’s program- in a pro-government militia, which in turn unknown perpetrators who es- ming to proactively engage the sparked a police operation still on-going as of caped on their motorcycles with- recipient communities in a dia- the time of the report. In the past, similar tac- out being recognized. While there logue to reassess local acceptance tics were successfully implemented by IEA have been previous incidents af- of their staff and activities. elements at different stages of its expansion in fecting the INGO, apparently Another important strand of secu- the district. An intensification of GOA-AOG linked to issues with local com- rity reporting, more consistent clashes in this area will likely enhance the al- munities in Parwan and Kapisa, with previous developments, per- ready significant threat levels faced by NGOs the underlying motives of the at- tained to the Ghorband Valley. in relation to the overland transit between Par- tack appear thus far to have been Following an IED discovery on wan and Bamyan. The ANSF imprint in the personal rather than related to the the main Bamyan Road in Syagerd valley has also been sustained with the recent organization. However, anecdotal during the previous cycle, another inauguration of the newly constructed ANP evidence also suggests an under- IED was located and defused in HQ in Surkhi Parsa DAC, west from Siyagerd current of disdain for the employ- the Sufi Khel section of the same and Shinwari. Anecdotal evidence from the ment of women in INGOs and road in Shinwari. The Quli Hir southern parts of the valley also noted the on- IOs in this part of Parwan. cluster, recently mentioned in rela- going support of local IEA networks to their Therefore, the association of the tion to an anticipated police op- comrades in Kohi Safi. victim with women’s program- eration aimed at disruption of its ming could have been another large AOG networks, saw a prel-

NGO Incidents BAMYAN Year to Date 0 BAMYAN 50 This Report Period 0 Bamyan remained scarcely men- 40 tioned in security reporting, with a the material was destined for. 30 single case of a weapons cache Anecdotal evidence, although un- 20 corroborated, feature an increase discovery reported from Do Ab 10 in AOG movement along the Mikh Zarin in Kahmard. In this 0 traditional hub of AOG & ACG roads in the Shikary Valley, along activity, an assortment of Russian with an increased presence of 122mm rockets and RPGs was ANSF patrols in the area. The BAMYAN AOG BAMYAN Crime found prepositioned close to the overland access to the province by main road. While stockpiling of vehicular traffic from Kabul has weaponry by local AOG for the been restricted to the Ghorband spring offensive cannot be ruled Road, with the Hajigak Pass in out, the area is also known as a Jalrez closed due to snow. smugglers’ haven and it has not been plausibly established whom THE ANSO REPORT Page 6

N ORTHERN REGION

NGO Incidents BALKH Year to Date 1 BALKH 50 This Report Period 0 Balkh remains a relatively secure 40 and stable environment with site of the recent ‘Ebtekar” mili- 30 strong GOA control in the major- tary operation). 20

ity of its districts. January 2011 Operation ‘Ebtekar’ was aimed at 10 has thus far seen 27 security inci- curbing the recent spike in secu- 0 dents (down from 44 the previous rity incidents along the Mazar- month), with one NGO incident Shibirghan Road, and thus far it (as detailed in the PRP). In com- seems to have been at least tem- BALKH AOG BALKH Crime parison, January 2010 saw only 16 porarily effective. It is always dif- security incidents, with most of ficult to determine the long term of the previous month, saw 3 this month; in- th those coming as arrests in Mazar-e effects of such military operations, cluding a January 24 AOG attack on a check- Sharif and ANSF/AOG skir- as countrywide, AOGs have point that was being manned by a former mishes in Chimtal. During the shown the discipline to disengage AOG member who had recently surrendered current period Mazar-e Sharif was and/or relocate during ANSF/ to the ANSF. The targeting of AOGs or spe- one of many cities countrywide IMF military operations and then cific AOG members who have chosen—or which saw a peaceful demonstra- re-engage as strong as ever after been recruited—to work with pro-government tion on the 29th against the treat- the operation has concluded and militias or the GOA (often through programs ment of Afghan refugees in Iran. the IMF/ANSF forces have such as the Peace and Reconciliation Process) Otherwise, many of the security drawn down. Now whether or is not an uncommon trend, as surrendered incidents for the province have not this length of road will follow AOG groups are often quickly turned into pro been the result of ACG actions in such a pattern remains to be seen. -government militia while maintaining previ- Mazar-e Sharif City, and security ously existing disputes and rivalries with other Balkh District, which saw only 1 groups from their areas. incidents (6) in Chahar Bolak (the security incident for the entirety

NGO Incidents SAMANGAN Year to Date 0 SAMANGAN This Report Period 0 50 Samangan, typically one of the 40 more common across the region. quieter provinces in the North, 30 In Dara-I-Sufi Payin District, a saw 4 security incidents in Janu- 20 recent focal point of AOG activ- ary. This is of note because there 10 ity, an AOG group broke into said were zero incidents in the January 0 of the prior year. All 4 incidents compound, setting fire to a fuel tanker, and abducting two guards. took place over a 3 day period SAMANGAN AOG SAMANGAN Crime between January 23rd and January Although the guards were later 25th. Two of the incidents— released unharmed, it is worth 13th, and this most recent abduction). noting that for a province which attributed to ACG elements— Samangan was also one of the provinces in the appears relatively free of incidents resulted in civilian deaths, includ- North that had a parliamentary candidate dis- (compared to the rest of the re- ing the killing of a former Jihadi qualified, and one of the only provinces in Af- gion), 4 security incidents have commander and his son. ghanistan where the disqualified candidate has recently taken place in this district, Perhaps the most notable of the 4 a dedicated private militia. Although there is and 3 of them have involved ab- in terms of the overall security no specific reason to believe that this will re- ductions (the December 4th return paradigm was the January 24th sult in any significant threat, how these dis- of GOA employees that had been AOG attack on a telecommunica- qualifications affect security in the region re- abducted in November, the ab- tions compound. Attacks on such mains to be seen. duction of construction workers compounds are rapidly becoming and ANP officials on December THE ANSO REPORT Page 7

NGO Incidents KUNDUZ Year to Date 1 KUNDUZ 100 This Report Period 0 Kunduz Province continues to be 80 a focal point of insecurity in the IED in a school compound, and a 60 region, with over 604 significant RCIED detonation against a pri- 40 incidents in 2010 or approxi- vate construction company’s vehi- 20 mately 50 a month. Therefore, cle in the Katakhel Area on Janu- 0 this month’s total of 56 events fits ary 24th which resulted in the in- fairly consistently with the overall juring of one occupant. There are KUNDUZ AOG KUNDUZ Crime security paradigm. The military reports that in this incident, this private construction company’s operations in the area combined Chahar Dara District has been the site of on- vehicles may have been specifi- with the combustible mix of going ANSF/IMF operations (including air- cally targeted due to previous inci- AOGs and pro-government mili- strikes) throughout December and January. tias—both of whom consist of a dents/disputes. Archi saw 9 security incidents total in January, variety of religious and ethnic Kunduz District has also seen a including a two attacks on their District Ad- backgrounds—result in an ex- rash of threatening phone calls to ministrative Center (the first coming during tremely kinetic environment. IO members in multiple events the PRP). This second attack consisted of That being said, present anecdotal occurring on the 17th, the 19th, BIM1 rockets being fired at the center, but reports from NGOs and the local 21st, and 26th, all of them from exploding harmlessly in an open area. Notably population indicate an appearance individuals claiming to represent there were also 2 IED detonations, one in of greater stability and permissive- AOGs in the area. As this is a Eidgah injuring a local civilian, and 1 in Poli ness. Whether these changes will fairly new occurrence in the area, Habib Area, which resulted in the death of a sustain remains to be seen. it is unknown at this time whether teenage boy. Kunduz District this month, as this volume of phone calls will Finally, Imam Sahib saw continuing military with the month previous, has seen persist and what the implications operations resulting in their dominance in a the greatest amount of security will be. number of the district’s villages, and 3 separate incidents in the province. That Khanadad saw 8 security incidents oppositional groups surrendering to GOA (6 has translated to 36% (20 of 56) and Chahar Dara District saw 10, on the 23rd, 7 in the Qalamguzara Area on the of the security events for the en- the latter included primarily IMF/ 25th, and 10 to the District Center on the 27th). tire province. These have in- ANSF operations and night raids, Aside from the 2 IED detonations, a total of cluded IMF/ANSF night raids and the subsequent surrendering 19 IEDs were found and defused, including 15 and operations, an IMF EOD of 10 AOG members to GOA in in the Quturblaq Area of the Imam Sahib – team discovery and defusing of an Kala Tarash Area on the 23rd. Archi District Main Road on the 25th.

NOTICE: Your input is invaluable for the production of this report. While we appreciate information on incidents, we also need general information on the security situation and context in your area. So please remember to call or email us regularly. Contact details of ANSO staff are provided on the last page.

ANSO: “..by NGOs for NGOs..” THE ANSO REPORT Page 8

NGO Incidents BADAKHSHAN Year to Date 1 BADAKHSHAN 50 This Report Period 1 Despite strong local leadership 40 and a thriving drug trade, Badakh- rather than to injure—the occu- 30 shan is generally considered a per- pants. For the time being, it does 20 missive environment for NGOs. not appear to have implications 10 However, Baharak District was for the NGO community at large 0 home to the Province’s first NGO in the province. This was one of three security incidents in Baharak incident this year when a home- BADAKHSHAN AOG BADAKHSHAN Crime made IED detonated inside the District in January. yard of an INGO compound. While the 13 incidents reported spike in drug related incidents due at an early Preliminary reports suggest that this month denote an almost harvest from an uncharacteristically warm win- the device was emplaced in the 100% increase from the 7 that ter. yard earlier with a timer device took place last month, it still re- Drug-related incidents in the province this attached, and the ANP are cur- mains a decrease from the 18 that month included an incident on the 22nd when rently holding a suspect who had took place last January. the Tajik Border Police shot two drug traffick- been a staff member for the or- Almost every district in the prov- ers as they attempted to cross illegally into Ta- ganization. Although no casual- ince saw a new Chief of Police jikistan and an event on the 29th in Payane ties or injuries were reported, the this month, which has the poten- More area when the ANBP clashed with drug structure itself suffered cosmetic tial to translate into decreased traffickers, also while they were attempting to damage (mostly in the form of stability in the months to come cross the border. broken windows). The motives for a province rooted very deeply Other than the NGO incident in Baharak and for the attack remain uncertain for in drug trade, as this increases the the drug trade, the potential for demonstra- now. There are theories that this probability of a disruption to ex- tions exists, as many of the local leaders in this they may have been either a case isting power structures. Initial somewhat remote region are unhappy with the of non-acceptance of the NGOs reports point to a substantially results of the recent parliamentary elections mission by the local community, increased poppy yield, and there and other related political matters. or an attempt to intimidate— also could be an earlier than usual

NGO Incidents SAR- E PUL Year to Date 1 SAR‐E PUL This Report Period 0 50 Sar-e Pul remains a relatively se- 40 cure province; with the districts of illegal checkpoints along the same 30 stretch (2 this month including Sar-e Pul, Sayyad and Kohistanat 20 the NGO incident detailed in the the focal points of any existing 10 PRP). Also in the same area, 4 insecurity. Last January saw only 0 6 incidents, including an AOG armed AOG members in ANSF uniforms were seen riding ANA abduction of 5 private construc- SAR‐E PUL AOG SAR‐E PUL Crime tion workers, and December of Ranger vehicles near the road, 2010 saw 20 security incidents. allegedly with the intent to abduct the region were Kohistanat (where, after two To put this month in perspective, ANSF/GOA individuals. That AOG attacks on District Administrative Cen- 10 total security incidents for the being said, as mentioned in the ters, IMF/ANSF launched joint operations in province marked a significant in- Jawzjad section, there are anecdo- the area including an airstrike and ground op- crease from last January 2010, but tal reports that there has been a erations) and in Sayyad, where the latter of two an exceptional 50% decrease from significant increase in the ANP incidents included an ANSF operation in the previous month. presence along the road. Balang Ghor Area resulting in a clash with an As with last month, which saw 5 The above made up 3 of the 4 AOG that resulted in the deaths of an ANP incidents taking place along the events in Sar-e Pul District for the and 2 AOG members. Sar-e Pul – Shibirghan Road (4 of month (the last being a demon- which were illegal checkpoints), stration), the other districts to see January has continued to witness a significant number incidents in THE ANSO REPORT Page 9

NGO Incidents BAGHLAN Year to Date 0 BAGHLAN This Report Period 0 50 Between the 16th and the 31stof 40 January, 10 of the 12 security inci- ter has been negligible, whereas 30 dents in Baghlan Province took the increase from last January is 20 quite significant, and follows the place either in Baghlani Jadid Dis- 10 general increase in security inci- trict (4 - all but one in the Char- 0 shanbe Tepa area), or in Puli dents that has been prevalent throughout the country. Khumri District (6 - which in- BAGHLAN AOG BAGHLAN Crime cluded 2 attacks on convoys and As opposed to a year ago, when the defusing of two roadside the majority of incidents came local nationals. When we add this to the previ- IEDs). These two districts have from skirmishes between ANSF ously noted increase in ACG activity along the typically accounted for most of and AOGs, such activities have main roads in the region, it seems that despite the incidents in this province, in- remained at a fairly consistent at least a temporary increase in security along cluding almost 75% of this level in the province while a spike the Puli Khumri – Mazar-e Sharif road follow- month’s total 32. in ACG activities (most promi- ing operation “Jadid,” most of the other roads In terms of the overall security nently consisting of “highway” in the province, especially secondary roads and paradigm for the province, this robberies) has contributed to the the road leading from Puli Khumri to Kunduz, represents approximately a 60% decrease in security. This is in line remain unpredictable and dangerous. ACG increase in security incidents from with previously noted trends over activity and IEDs along these roads present last January 2010 (20), but a very the last few months. significant risks, with the potential for illegal similar picture to that of the prior While on the subject of travel se- checkpoints and abductions considerable, even month (35 - December 2010). curity issues, the detonation of an during daylight hours. Although the month of January is IED on a private civilian vehicle often not as chaotic as December, in Puli Khumri was notable be- the usual dip in activities this win- cause it resulted in the deaths of 6

NGO Incidents TAKHAR Year to Date 1 TAKHAR 50 This Report Period 0 Anecdotal reports have claimed 40 that there have been some im- number of security incidents (26 30 provements in the security situa- for January 2011) mark a 30% 20 tion in Takhar. To date, like in increase from January of the pre- 10 Badakhshan, much of the ACG vious year. 0 activity and provincial insecurity Out of those 26, 9 were in Talu-

comes from the drug smuggling qan District, with 7 of those being TAKHAR AOG TAKHAR Crime pathways to Tajikistan that exist in attributed to ACGs and a further the northern part of the province. 8 taking place in Khwaja Ghar fers—amongst other things—semi regular Notable incidents in the province District, almost all of which were VBIED threats to ANP gathering points), it for this period include two back- attributed to the aforementioned has remained somewhat constant, without the to-back incidents in Khwaja Ghar IMF and ANSF operations in the spike that the province has seen elsewhere in following an increase in ANSF/ area. Notable exceptions included ACG events (most noticeable in events such as IMF operations (including night an IED detonation and an attack last period’s open attack on an NGO worker raids and joint operations) after on ANP HQ in Baharak. detailed in the PRP). which, at two different times, a The breakdown of security inci- Finally, the province saw the results of civil significant number of AOG mem- dents follows trends seen unrest when a pro-government militia member bers surrendered to the GOA (8 throughout the previous month, was abducted in Yangi Qala on the 24th spark- th on the 26 of January, and 16 on which included 18 of the 38 pro- ing a 400 person demonstration against the th the 27 of January). There remain vincial security incidents taking government’s ineffective response to the ab- general concerns of armed rob- place in Taluqan. While there duction. This was followed by the militia bery along the various roadways exists an obvious and tangible member’s release 4 days later after an interven- in the province, and the actual threat in Taluqan City (which suf- tion on his behalf by the local elders THE ANSO REPORT Page 10

NGO Incidents FARYAB Year to Date 0 FARYAB This Report Period 0 50 One of the more “active” regions 40 in the North, out of the total (38) January (23). Faryab Province is a 30 security incidents in January, al- gateway for AOG movements 20 most half of them took place in from the Western region to the 10 Qaysar, a district largely run by North, with a number of districts 0 AOG governance. Faryab saw 4 (most notably Qaysar and Almar) under complete AOG control, as IED detonations and 7 IED dis- FARYAB AOG FARYAB Crime coveries during the month, all of such there is little reason to be- which were in Qaysar District, the lieve that this year it will not con- members attacked 2 checkpoints simultane- majority targeting ANP or tinue to be “active.” ously (which for the time being is being re- ANSF/IMF targets. Additionally, There are unconfirmed reports of garded as one security incident, a coordinated 6 incidents took place in Pashtun individuals from neighboring attack). Kot District, most of which took towns stopping and searching Another notable event occurred on the 17th of th place prior to January 9 during vehicles that are coming from January, when an IO received a threatening an IMF operation, with the area Qaysar and Almar Districts and phone call from an individual claiming to rep- remaining relatively quiet since heading east for weapons/AOG resent AOG in the area. The individual de- then. members. Whether this is the manded financial support for AOG activities Although this represents a signifi- result of a deputized militia group, and threatened that the receiver of the call cant decrease in the number of or the work of a vested commu- would otherwise bear the consequences. This security incidents compared to the nity remains uncertain, but this looks much the same as similar instances that prior month (61 - December), trend also will continue to be took place this month in Kunduz Province, there is a cross country trend to- monitored. where there have been a number of such wards activity dips in January, and Of note, there were a total of 5 phone threats made. It is unknown at this this represents approximately a AOG attacks on ANP check- time whether this volume of phone calls will 65% increase in attacks when points this January, including an persist, and what the further implications may compared to the previous year’s incident on the 21st when AOG be.

NGO Incidents JAWZJAN Year to Date 0 JAWZJAN 50 This Report Period 0 Jawzjan saw a significant increase 40 in security incidents this month, and an incident where an AOG 30 with more than twice as many (20) set fire to the residences and 20 wheat harvests of locals from as either the previous January (9) 10 Moghol and Garmjar Villages, or—unlike in most of the other 0 Northern Provinces—the previ- allegedly because they had joined in the peace process in Shibirghan ous month (10 - December). Of JAWZJAN AOG JAWZJAN Crime note, Darzab District (7) and City. The fire resulted in substan- Shibirghan District (7) combined tial financial losses and an injury unharmed after stopping them to check for for 70% of the provinces insecu- to at least one female civilian. GOA employees. As is usually the case, ANP rity. Shibirghan also saw 7 security were eventually deployed to the area, but the Darzab in particular has seen a incidents this month, 2 more than checkpoint had already disappeared by the notable decrease in security this the previous month, which most time they arrived. Anecdotal reports from the month when compared to the notably included the surrender of area state that ANP have had a more signifi- previous 3 months, which saw 40 AOG members from Aqsai cant presence on the road recently, setting up only 3 security incidents each. village in Darzab to the GOA, checkpoints in areas that had previously seen The vast majority of this month’s and an illegal checkpoint in the repeated illegal checkpoints or ACG activity, incidents consisted of AOG re- Afghan Tepa Area of Jawzjan – and conducting more frequent patrols along lated events including attacks on Sar-e Pul Road. Reports claim the road. However it remains to be seen District Centers and ANSF/IMF that the checkpoint, which started whether this will continue and/or produce units, as well as an IED discovery around 0700 hours and lasted less lasting changes along the road. than an hour, let vehicles pass THE ANSO REPORT Page 11

W ESTERN REGION

NGO Incidents HERAT HERAT Year to Date 0 80 This Report Period 0 70 Kushki Kuhna and northern 60 Kushk were again in the spotlight, Obe also continues to see AOG 50 40 resulting from ANSF/IMF – activity, with one IED in the west 30 AOG hostilities while also seeing of the district and an illegal check- 20 an increase in incidents compared point in the east (close to Chishti 10 0 to the previous reporting period. Sharif). AOG activity in the west- Whereas the beginning of January ern part of the road – such as Sa- HERAT AOG HERAT Crime saw three direct attacks ANSF bera and Turk Abad areas where search operation in these districts, incidents were concentrated since from Faryab and Badghis, which points out the the current period saw three direct mid-December – is expected to associated AOG networks and movements attacks and two IED related inci- see further AOG activity, espe- between the provinces – in particular the influ- dents in the Darzak area(between cially IEDs. An unusual occur- ence of Badghis based groups on the north- Kushk and Kushki Kuhna) alone. rence was the establishment of the eastern districts of Herat Province. In addition, northern Kushk wit- illegal checkpoint, which included nessed one IED strike targeting the abduction of two truck driv- Gulran District also saw an IED discovery on IMF in Share Khalil as well as a ers, by AOG in Sawarz on the the main road to the DAC and an abduction of direct AOG attack against an IMF 28th of January. Although the area a GoA employee on the main road that leads base, followed by an IMF opera- saw similar incidents a year ago, it to the Kuskh DAC. IED related incidents in tion, in Yaka Toot a few days had been rather quiet for most of Gulran remain infrequent with only seven re- later. These increased hostilities 2010. There are indications that corded IED related incidents in 2010. How- also presenta risk for civilians as the AOG originated from Chishti ever, this marks the third IED discovery in the the AOG attack on the IMF base Sharif District in this case. district in 2011 denoting a rate increase when and the IMF response on 18th of Whether this was an isolated inci- compared to last year, a trend that may persist January demonstrated, with one dent or not, remains to be seen. as recent anecdotal reports suggest a stronger civilian killed and nine civilians Of note, NDS arrested two AOG AOG presence. wounded, two severely. members in Chishti Sharif on 23rd The main road between Herat and of January, who were reportedly THE ANSO REPORT Page 12

NGO Incidents FARAH Year to Date 0 FARAH 50 This Report Period 0 During the current reporting pe- 40 riod, AOG activity was concen- operation. In Gulistan, AOG 30 trated in Bala Buluk with IED attacked an ANSF/IMF mobile 20 related incidents prevailing. The patrol on the main road to the 10 st risk for civilians was again evident DAC on 21 of January and an 0 when IEDs hit civilian vehicles on IED was discovered on 26th of the 21st in the Shiwan area and on January. Both districts are ex- 28th in Farahrod. Furthermore, at pected to see regular AOG activ- FARAH AOG FARAH Crime least one civilian was killed during ity in the coming months. get access to the residence of the NDS Chief. an IMF airstrike in Pusht Rod on Although Farah City remained Although there is no specific timeframe for the 30th of January. AOG stopped calm, ANSF increased security attacks, the AOG focus appears to be on GoA two private trucks, also in Pusht measures on 31st January due to related facilities in District 1. Rod District, carrying education BBIED warnings for the second ANSF/IMF continues to target the AOG material of Farah’s Education De- time during this reporting period. command structure in Farah with operations partment. The trucks were set on Security measures were stepped focusing on the recent hotspots Bala Buluk fire and one driver was killed. th nd up previously from 18 to 22 of and Pusht Rod. On 30th of January, ANSF Bakwa and Gulistan districts re- January. It should be noted, how- arrested two AOG commanders in Massaw main difficult, although they saw ever, that suicide attacks in Farah Area of Pusht Road, whereas the other re- significantly less incidents than City are not frequent; though in corded operations mainly focused on low level Bala Buluk and Pusht Rod. August 2010 two BBIEDs deto- AOG fighters, who were either arrested or Bakwa witnessed four IED related nated at the entrance of the Gov- killed. incidents, targeting ANP and PSC ernor’s Office and in October vehicles, as well as an IMF search 2010 two suicide attackers tried to

NGO Incidents BADGHIS Year to Date 0 BADGHIS This Report Period 0 70 Badghis province once again saw 60 Qadis District again witnessed 50 a high number of incidents during 40 th this reporting period. Whereas intra-AOG tensions on the 24 , a 30 Ghormach hosted significantly dynamic reported twice previ- 20 10 less AOG activity, Murghab ously, once in November as well 0 served as the focus of AOG atten- as earlier this month. Once again, tion with seven IED discoveries these clashes indicate that AOGs and the same number of direct are not homogeneous and divided BADGHIS AOG BADGHIS Crime by competing interests. It is pos- AOG attacks against ANSF/IMF. expected to also increase during the upcoming sible that these intra-AOG strug- Quite unusual was the IED strike transition process. AOGs will not only strug- gles will increase in anticipation of against an ANP vehicle 10 km gle internally, but will also be look for methods the handover of lead security re- from Qala-I-Naw City. Although to weaken the ANSF, not only by direct action, sponsibility from ISAF to ANSF Qala-I-Naw District recorded but also by intimidation. Infiltration is another as they may perceive this as an more IED related incidents in possibility as it could hinder or disrupt (by opportunity to improve and 2010 than the years before, this seeding distrust) the proper handover process strengthen their position. How- number is quite low, with only with ISAF. The mentioned incident is already ever, increased attacks against two IED strikes and two discov- the third one in Badghis in the last 13 months ANSF, and similar incidents as eries. Similar to the last incident with the last one occurring in August 2010, the one on 18th of January, when in November, the IED targeted when an ANP officer opened fire on IMF sol- an ANA soldier opened fire ANP close to an ANP check- diers in the PRT in Qala-I-Naw. point. against IMF soldiers in a joint combat outpost in Murghab, are THE ANSO REPORT Page 13

NGO Incidents GHOR Year to Date 0 GHOR This Report Period 0 50 Ghor Province remained very 40 quiet during the present reporting the public support for ANP, as 30 period with only one recorded well as ANP influence, is limited 20 incident in Chaghcharan District. in this area. This also raises the 10 On 23 January, locals disarmed question of how accepted locally 0 and beat two ANP officers in the newly deployed ANA will be, Alquchak Village after the officers having recently arrived from reportedly shot and wounded an Herat Province. Reportedly more GHOR AOG GHOR Crime illegally armed villager. ANP rein- than 100 soldiers of the currently bring these local commanders to the negotia- forcements arrived to the area and planned 150 ANA are now in tion table and herewith increase stability in the the two ANP officers were re- place in Chaghcharan. province. Of note, it is assessed that with leased due to negotiations with In addition, reports indicate that more these supporting GoA authorities, AOG village elders. ANP also subse- some important local command- (non-local in particular) will have less room for quently arrested the injured sus- ers are in negotiations with the activities in Ghor as before. However, the pect and seized one AK-47. A Governor for joining the peace negotiations are still ongoing and the outcome similar incident was recorded dur- and reconciliation process. The will largely depend upon the abilities of the ing the parliamentary elections, first of these reconciled, together negotiators to satisfy all the various interests at when locals attempted to disarm with 25 men, in Sharak District in stake. If the last two weeks were more quiet an ANP officer in Badgah Village mid-January. The process seems than usual because of the ongoing negotiations of Chaghcharan District. Alto- to be mainly driven by efforts of or because of the winter conditions cannot be gether, the incidents suggest that the new Governor of Ghor to said with certainty. THE ANSO REPORT Page 14

E ASTERN REGION

NGO Incidents NANGARHAR Year to Date 0 NANGARHAR This Report Period 0 100 Nangarhar witnessed a below av- IED patterns have recently been 80 erage number of AOG-initiated 60 incidents during this period, con- focused, in Khogyani a local elder 40 sistent with a lower absolute num- was killed outside his residence ber of incidents across the prov- when a remote control IED 20 ince. There were just two direct planted there detonated. 0 AOG attacks, the first one the The number of IMF operations

Chaparhar DAC and the second was also significantly lower than NANGARHAR AOG NANGARHAR Crime on an ANP patrol in the Shah in previous periods, with just two Agha Saheb area of Sorkh Rod, reported operations. The more Sherzad, and b) the consequent AOG efforts which resulted in damage to the significant of the two, which oc- to strengthen their targeting of GOA and ANP vehicle. curred in Behsud, led to the cap- ANSF actors (the first was a direct attack on With IEDs, the combined volume ture of a mid-level AOG opera- an ANP convoy). Also related to Hesarak, of related incidents was slightly tive responsible for operations in IMF targeted a Sorkh Rod compound thought down on recent periods, and Sherzad’s Tutu village, the site of to be the location of the Hesarak District again, ANP managed to maintain much of the winter’s fiercest IMF- Shadow Governor, and during the search a strong ratio of discoveries (11) AOG fighting. It is notable that killed two AOG fighters that offered armed to detonations (6) – with one of many of the significant IMF cap- resistance. It remains unclear if the DSG was these a case of premature detona- tures of mid-level AOG opera- detained, but this is the second time that com- tion, occurring in a house in tives in Nangarhar during January pounds in Sorkh Rod have been raided in Sorkh Rod while the IED was have taken place in the districts January during the search for mid-level AOG being constructed, killing two that make up the environs of Jala- operatives. AOG operatives and injuring an- labad City, but have involved To the south of the province, ANP eradication other. In terms of geographical AOG figures responsible for op- efforts have continued apace with the cultiva- pattern, the highest concentration erations in the more insecure tion season. In Pachir wa Agam, 7.4 acres of was in Behsud, and in the Ring southern districts – thus indicating poppy were eradicated, while, for the first time Road area in particular. In Jala- the stronger presence that AOG this season in Hesarak, 43.5 acres were de- labad City, another music shop networks have on the perimeter stroyed by ANP in the Shafaq, Nasir Khel and was struck, this time causing no of the provincial capital. The Ganja Khel areas. casualties, although the shop itself other occurred in Achin, and led to the discovery and seizure of Finally, in Jalalabad City, the Zone 3 offices of sustained damage. In Rodat, an a government-associated EOD agency were IED detonated near an IMF vehi- two AT mines, and the arrest of a suspected AOG operative. robbed of $20,000 by unidentified individuals cle travelling on the main district on the night of January 20th, which led to the road to the DAC, injuring a by- In Hesarak, AOG fighters estab- detention of 2 drivers and 5 guards the follow- stander, near to where another lished an illegal CP on a secondary ing day, who were suspected of facilitating the IED was discovered and success- road in the Chor Chang area, robbery. Perhaps the only lesson for NGOs in fully defused. And in Bati Kot for which searched unsuccessfully for this event is ensuring that valuables are kept the second time in January, an GOA employees. This is the sec- well locked at offices and guesthouses, and IED was discovered on the Jala- ond incident in January that is that security procedures concerning keys and labad-Torkham Highway, this related to a) the re-emergence of knowledge of safe combinations are well moni- time near the Zangal ANP CP. GOA/ANSF presence in He- tored and enforced. Outside of these districts, where sarak, after the IMF operations in THE ANSO REPORT Page 15

NGO Incidents NURISTAN Year to Date 0 NURISTAN 50 This Report Period 0 Attacks against ANBP check- 40 points in Nuristan were the key Also in Waygal were further re- 30 element reported during this pe- ports of the strengthening of the 20 riod, all focused in the District of main AOGs, in a continuation on 10 Kamdesh. In the early morning the trend seen in recent months. 0 of the 18th, AOG fighters attacked Reporting suggests that the IEA is a number of ANBP CPs in the moving into a period of consoli-

Kandakee area of Kamdesh, dation in the district, with the NURISTAN AOG NURISTAN Crime which sits on the border with Chi- Provincial Shadow Governor as- tral. Late in the period, attacks signing sub-commanders to begin ANP present in the HQ. Finally, local AOG were also reported in the areas of to more strictly enforce conserva- members and Arab AOG operatives were re- Gawhar Dish and Folad. In non- tive social norms, and also an- ported to have met in the Bila area of the dis- security developments, a protest nounced to local nationals that trict, to coordinate their activities. took place on the 16th in the pro- they should use the AOG justice vincial capital, Parun, by two system for conflict resolution. As In sum, not only does it appear that local failed parliamentary candidates with the previous period, more- AOGs are continuing to strengthen their secu- from Wama, who were aggrieved over, IEA members under the rity and political position within the district, that Wama was no longer repre- command of the PSG hung a but they are also facilitating a place within their sented in parliament but nearby number of flags within visible authority for foreign AOGs, who characteristi- Waygal, a district heavily affected distance of the district’s ANP cally have less sympathy for the local popula- by AOGs, saw a number of suc- HQ, and are staged there without tion and thus humanitarian organisations. cessful candidates. any apparent response from the

NGO Incidents PAKTYA Year to Date 0 PAKTYA 100 This Report Period 0 Paktya continued to be relatively 80 quiet with a nearly identical inci- led to a brief exchange of fire. 60 dent volume to last period, as Subsequent to this attack there 40

many of the AOG fighters that were 3 nighttime IMF search op- 20 went home across the border, for erations within 3 days in the the particularly cold winters the northeastern environs of Gardez 0 high-altitude province experi- City, near to the site of the attack,

ences, continued to remain away. which led to a total of 7 AOG PAKTYA AOG PAKTYA Crime NGOs can expect this relative fighters arrested and 1 killed, re- calm – primarily related to sea- portedly including one AOG op- sonal fighting patterns on the part erative responsible for IED at- dence in the Ibrahim Khel area. of AOGs – to continue for Feb- tacks in the province. It is well In Zurmat, the only recorded incidents were ruary and into March. known that in the villages in the two IMF search operations on the 15th and There were 4 direct attacks during immediate vicinity of the city 17th, leading to a total of 4 AOG fighters ar- the period, including in Dand wa AOG fighters are hiding during rested, including a suspected IED facilitator. Patan, where AOG attacked an the cold winter months, and the The highest concentration of AOG attacks ANBP CP with SAF and RPGs attack may have prompted more occurred in Shwak, with three ineffective IDF from locations across the border active IMF efforts to weed out attacks on the IMF base in the DAC area, and in Kurram Agency, as well as a AOG fighters in the area. There a direct attack on an ANA convoy in the Pul-e grenade attack against the DAC. were further IMF operations in Asmaye area, which injured one local man in In Ahmadabad’s Nisti Kot area, the Gardez environs on 19th, with the crossfire. Days after this series of attacks, just outside Gardez City, there two AOG fighters detained in the IMF conducted a daytime airstrike in the DAC was a direct AOG attack on an Khak-e Faqeer area, and on the area, with no reports of casualties or damage. IMF convoy on the 15th, which 23rd, when three AOG operatives were arrested in a raid on a resi- THE ANSO REPORT Page 16

NGO Incidents KUNAR Year to Date 0 KUNAR 200 This Report Period 0 Kunar continued to be almost 150 entirely dominated by direct AOG a construction company working 100 attacks on IMF and ANSF/GOA in the district. As in Marawara the targets, with an abnormal focus previous period, this spike in 50 Sirkanay is likely related to the on the usually relative calm of 0 Chapa Dara: AOG fighters staged increased confidence and cross- short direct attacks on the DAC border presence of the main Moh- on 11 consecutive days from the mand Agency-based AOG and KUNAR AOG KUNAR Crime beginning of this period. There is their efforts to consolidate their currently no functional govern- position. And in Marawara itself, nd mally seen during this time span. ment presence in the district, with the 22 saw an illegal CP set up in only a handful of ANP garrison- the Kamkay Bachay area, which There was just one recorded IDF attack, oc- ing the DAC compound, but led to the abduction of a total of curring in Manogai. This district was also the there are also plans to relocate an 14 civilians. It is unclear what the site of the highest volumes of IMF search op- ANA battalion to the DAC within specific motive was for this inci- erations and airstrikes, where in three separate the next month, as part of the dent, or what were the identities operations IMF killed 6 AOG and 1 civilian strategic adjustments for the of the abductees, but this repre- boy, and injured a civilian girl. Other opera- ANSF occurring nationwide in sents particularly fierce behavior tions took place in Bar Kunar, where on two advance of the 2011 fighting sea- by these AOG fighters (likely re- consecutive nights IMF conducted air strikes son. As such, these attacks likely lated to the Mohmand AOG on suspected AOG locations, with no reported represent AOG efforts – ordered mentioned above) towards locals. casualties. at their own strategic level – to re- Indeed, these kidnappings were Finally, NGOs should be aware that the Paki- shape the threat perceptions of not alone in the province during stani military is likely to begin new military the ANSF in advance of the bat- the period; there were two sepa- operations sometime during February in the talion relocation, and to show rate abductions of local employees Bajaur and Mohmand agencies of the FATA, them they will not have an easy of an IMF base in the same area which share borders with Kunar, given the time once they arrive. of Wata Pur – the Malakana area recent resurgence of Pakistani AOGs in these The other direct attack incidents – as well as the abduction of the agencies. As such, we may see significantly focused on the more habitual tar- two occupants of a private vehicle increased infiltration into the eastern border gets of IMF convoys and ANSF carrying bread to an IMF facility districts, not just for the usual cross-border hit CPs in Manogai (2), Wata Pur (2) in Nari. There was also a second and run attacks but also for the purposes of and Nari (2), with Sirkanay stand- kidnapping in Marawara, where retreating to a safe haven for the duration of ing out as substantially above av- two locals were kidnapped for the operations. This may have an impact on erage, with 6 separate direct at- unknown reasons from the Bachi security in the border districts, and upon NGO tacks and one abduction of a area. In total therefore, 23 Af- operations, given the harder line many Paki- GOA employee and his son; of ghans were kidnapped during this stani AOGs take concerning NGOs. note, one of these attacks targeted period, much higher than nor- THE ANSO REPORT Page 17

NGO Incidents KHOST Year to Date 0 KHOST This Report Period 0 120 The fighting in Khost continued 100 to be frequent and fierce, evidenc- these was 33 AOG fighters, and 80 ing not only a continuation in in- in two of the operations caches of 60 tensity during the supposed quiet weapons were also seized. The 40 winter season, but in fact a signifi- number of operations reported is 20 cant increase, and as such the actually a seasonal high, and as 0 province was far and away the such is a demonstration that the most violent in the eastern region IMF will very likely remain com- KHOST AOG KHOST Crime with almost double the number of mitted to their high operational incidents seen in the nearest prov- tempo throughout the coming trio of Sabari, Bak and Tere Zayi – but also ince, Kunar. One factor in this months. Gurbuz, where cross-border infiltration is un- equation is the low elevation of From the AOG side, IEDs, direct derstood to have increased recently. Targets the area, which leads to much and indirect attacks were recorded also included the house of the Nadir Shah Kot milder winters than neighbours in abundance, and across the District Governor, in Jaji Maydan, as well as such as Paktya, yet another impor- province: there were 17 separate the home of a Tere Zayi local GOA official, tant factor is the straightforward IED detonations and 24 discovery fortunately in each case causing only minor strength of armed opposition in -disposals, 12 direct attacks and 16 perimeter damage. the province, in spite of the con- IDF attacks. With regard to tinuing efforts by the IMF to While IED volumes rose only moderately, di- IEDs, 7 of the detonations and 10 rect and indirect AOG attacks rose much more break their opponent’s momen- of the discoveries occurred within tum. significantly, from 7 and 3 respectively to 12 Khost City itself, including the and 16, a vivid demonstration that the prov- The most high profile and high premature detonation of an ince’s AOGs remain as committed to this high consequence example of these SVBIED in the Khoni Khawar operational tempo as the IMF. There was no IMF operations took place in area, demonstrating the ongoing clear pattern of focus for these attacks, in Guldar village in Sabari on the ease with which AOGs can infil- terms of geographical location, although if de- st night of the 21 . IMF SOF raided trate into the provincial capital fined in its broadest sense it stretched from the a compound in the area, and in a and generate insecurity, and the Sabari-Bak-Tere Zayi trio southwest along the sustained exchange of fire – in- priority that AOGs currently place Waziristan border to Spera. Targets were, un- cluding at least one SBBIED on the capital. However, the posi- surprisingly, IMF and ANSF/GOA, and no detonation – killed at least 10 tive discovery-to-detonation ratio casualties from these attacks were reported. AOG fighters, wounded and de- does indicate that, as in Nan- However, this upping of intensity is not just tained 11 more, and recovered a garhar, ANSF (and IMF) are get- about inflicting casualties, but also about con- number of suicide vests. 3 chil- ting better in their ability to detect straining movements and maintaining a strong dren and 2 women living in the and defuse such devices. counterweight to the high tempo operations by compound were also injured in The primary targets of IED at- the IMF. However, the ultimate consequence the operation. Numerous other tacks, as determined by the vic- of this dynamic, as it plays out in the coming operations were also reported to tims of the successful detonations, months, is likely to be a continued swift escala- have taken place, focused on Tere were PSC convoys (2), IMF con- tion of the military conflict in the province, Zayi and Bak but also including voys (3), and ANSF vehicles (4), and the deterioration of security for all in- Mando Zayi, Sabari and Khost and outside of Khost City, they volved, but perhaps to be felt most acutely by City; the total detention count for concentrated on the traditional the local population stuck in the middle. THE ANSO REPORT Page 18

NGO Incidents LAGHMAN Year to Date 0 LAGHMAN 50 This Report Period 0 Laghman continued its period of 40 In Alishing there was also an IMF calm during the latter half of Janu- 30 air operation on the 21st, in the ary, with incident volumes down 20 from the last period. In Alingar, Mail valley, which led to approxi- two IEDs struck separate IMF mately 10 AOG deaths, reportedly 10 convoys on the same day, one in including that of the District 0 Malyar and one in Kotani, in each Shadow Governor of Nangarhar’s case leading to minor damage, Hesarak district. Another air op- while 6 days later another IED eration occurred in Qarghayi dis- LAGHMAN AOG LAGHMAN Crime detonated against an ANP vehicle trict’s Shadi Bagh area on the clear of the Highway beyond 1500 hrs for their returning from the DAC where it same day, which led to no casual- own safety; while this incident was not con- had been investigating a fatal ties or damage. firmed by ANP by the time of writing, locals shooting. All 4 ANP policemen The sole AOG direct attack took from the area had confirmed it and were taking in the vehicle were killed, and it place in Qarghayi’s Demazang it seriously, and the area’s proximity to Tangi was reported that threats were area, where AOG fighters at- makes the details of the incident more credible. made against locals, warning them tacked an ANP CP with heavy not to attend the funeral or they weapons and small arms, without Beyond that, the only physical incident re- would be targeted. On the 23rd, significant consequence. As well, corded was the accidental flipping of an IMF three other IEDs were discovered AOG expressed their presence in vehicle off the road, which caused extended and defused – two in Alingar and Dawlat Shah on the 29th with two delays. Of note, approximately 2 hours after one in Alishing, demonstrating a separate occurrences of AOG the initial incident, with heavy traffic conges- particular IED-related pattern of checkpoints reported. On the tion in both directions, there was an escalation insecurity in Alingar during the Kabul-Jalalabad Highway, there of force incident involving an IMF turret gun- period that NGOs should take was one important development ner and a taxi, where the former fired warning note of; detonations have mostly of note. On January 23rd in the shots at the latter, although it was initially taken place in the mid- to late af- Mashal-e Kamar area of the High- thought by the IMF soldiers that they had ternoon, so travel in the late way, near the insecure Tangi zone, taken fire from nearby hills. This serves as a morning on the main Alingar dis- AOG operatives posted nightlet- salutary reminder of the dangers of failing to trict road is the best timing to ters on the local mosque and ho- obey the instructions of IMF elements during minimise risk. tel, warning local nationals to stay such scenarios. THE ANSO REPORT Page 19

S OUTHERN REGION

NGO Incidents KANDAHAR Year to Date 0 KANDAHAR 200 This Report Period 0 Kandahar Province has witnessed 150 a continuation of large numbers ering supplies for IMF) in the 100 of incidents, with the vast major- Khagi area of Khakrez District ity occurring in Kandahar City and in Kandala village of Zhari 50 itself. AOG attacks remained District AOG attacked a joint 0 constant over the last report pe- IMF/ANSF patrol, without sig- riod, however ANP and NDS nificant results. Lastly, a BBIED appeared to have increased the attack was foiled in Spin Boldak, KANDAHAR AOG KANDAHAR Crime tempo of their activity, especially near the main border crossing in search and seizure operations in with Pakistan, when ANBP per- Outside of the city, the village of Charghulba the city. AOG continued to focus sonnel shot and killed the suicide in neighbouring Arghandab District was host on targeted killings of both civil- bomber before he could reach any to four separate IMF/ANSF operations, re- ian leaders and ANP. potential target. sulting in the seizure of a total of 20 completed As mentioned, it appears that To this end, targeted killings took IEDs, 12 mortar shells, 14 hand grenades, 45 IMF/ANSF operations – espe- place in Districts 2, 4 and 9 of the AP mines, and 16 remote controls, in addition cially in the city – increased in city, with the vast residential area to various small arms and ammunition. In intensity over the past two weeks. of District 9 playing host to two addition to these search operations, an air ANP/NDS search operations in ANP killings, as well as the killing strike resulted in the deaths of two AOG the city resulted in the seizure of a of a tribal elder who had advo- caught planting IEDs on the main road outside significant amount of explosives cated cooperation with GOA and of the village, which had obviously acted as a and drugs, with the most signifi- IMF efforts. The most prominent significant IED storage/construction facility cant occurring in District 5 of the attack however occurred in Dis- for local AOG. trict 4 as the Deputy Governor of city, wherein an NDS/ANP raid IEDs were employed extensively over the re- the province was killed by a sui- on a local house uncovered a port period and in addition to the killing of the cide attack, with another six civil- cache consisting of two Toyota Deputy Governor, IED strikes occurred in the ians wounded in the blast. In ad- vehicles, three motorbikes, 4,650 districts of Spin Boldak and Dand; in the Spin dition, a rocket attack against kg of ammonium nitrate, 1,320 kg Boldak incident, four ANP were killed by a KAF – which normally have little of explosives, 400 meters of IED roadside IED strike against their vehicle and in effect – reportedly killed one IMF detonation wire, an unknown the Dand incident two PSC guards were killed and injured another 17, including number of remote control de- by an RCIED strike near the village of Bel- two civilians. In the other areas vices, and a total of 13 suicide landi. Discovery and disposal operations took of the province, AOG shot and vests with 12 grenades in each place on 16 separate occasions, the majority of killed two civilian vest. NDS/ANP also arrested which occurred in Kandahar City itself. ‘collaborators’ (truck drivers deliv- eight suspected AOG members in connection with this large seizure. THE ANSO REPORT Page 20

NGO Incidents HELMAND Year to Date 0 HELMAND This Report Period 0 200 During the last two weeks Hel- mand hosted a large number of ambushed an IMF patrol with 150 SAF and RPG rounds, with the incidents, as both AOG and 100 IMF/ANSF maintained a high civilians caught in the cross-fire. rate of activity during the report Two AOG attacks on off-duty 50 period. In addition to clashing ANP occurred in Lashkar Gah 0 with IMF/ANSF, AOG also con- District, one in Safiano village, and another in the village of tinued their campaign of civilian HELMAND AOG HELMAND Crime targeted killings and intimidation Bolan, both resulted in the death as well as managing to deploy a of their targets. AOG also killed a injuries to another four IMF, and in Nahri Sar- significant number of IEDs in key civilian who had been working on raj, where an RCIED struck an ANP vehicle, areas within the province. The a project supported by IO funds, killing three ANP and serious wounding an- level of activity displayed by AOG with his body being discovered in other five ANP. Civilians were the victims on indicates that – at least in the the desert area of Bar Naw Zad of four occasions during the report period, with short term – the highly-publicized Naw Zad District three days after the most significant incident occurring in the ‘reconciliation’ of several AOG his abduction. Lastly, AOG killed Garmak area of Sangin District as six civilians units in the province last month a member of the local Shura of were killed and another three wounded when a has had no effect on the ability of Naw Ali District during the report roadside IED struck their mini-bus. period, seeking to deter local par- Helmand-based AOG to plan and IMF/ANSF enjoyed considerable success in conduct operations on a large ticipation in governance efforts in that area. their operations against AOG over the past scale. two weeks, launching a total of at least 13 Reinforcing this view is the fact At least 11 IED strikes occurred separate raids in the districts of Marja, Sangin, that AOG launched at least 23 over the last two weeks, in the Nad Ali and Lashkar Gah which reportedly direct attacks on IMF/ANSF pa- districts of Marja, Nad Ali and resulted in a total of over 35 AOG killed and trols, primarily in the districts of Sangin, and primarily against dozens of detentions. In particular, IMF op- Sangin, Nad Ali, Nahri Sarraj and IMF/ANSF vehicles. There were erations were centred in Nahri Sarraj, and air Musa Qala. The majority of these also another 18 incidents of IED assets were used on four separate occasions in led to inconclusive results, with discovery and disposal by IMF/ that district. However, the biggest haul came AOG breaking off contact after ANSF personnel, indicating a ro- in Sangin District, where IMF and ANA forces an initial engagement. In one un- bust ability to manufacture and uncovered a IED storage facility near the fortunate incident, however, two deploy IEDs. Of the strikes re- DAC, seizing and destroying a reported 58 children were killed and four oth- corded, the most serious occurred IEDs and well as a quantity of IEDs under ers wounded in the Grishk area of in Marja District, where three construction. Nahri Sarraj District when AOG separate incidents accounted for the death of one IMF and serious THE ANSO REPORT Page 21

NGO Incidents GHAZNI Year to Date 0 GHAZNI This Report Period 0 250

Indirect AOG attacks in Ghazni 200 continued to decrease during this of Mushaki, an AOG ambush of a report period, however direct at- PSC-guarded IMF convoy re- 150 tacks remained high, against both sulted in four PSC killed and two 100 IMF and ANSF targets. IMF/ others wounded. In addition, in 50 Muqur District, an AOG ambush ANSF activity remained robust, 0 with a series of operations primar- of an IMF patrol resulted in the ily focusing on Gelan District. deaths of three local children and GHAZNI AOG GHAZNI Crime Once a staple of AOG attacks, injuries to four other civilians indirect fire incidents only oc- when RPG fire hit a nearby civil- nition. ian residence. curred twice, both in Ghazni Dis- IEDs played a small role within the incident trict. In the area of Chawk-e- The pace of IMF/ANSF opera- profile, with only seven recorded incidents, the Masood, several mortars landed tions increased markedly from most serious occurring in the DAC of Qara- near the main market area, and in past report periods, with at least bagh wherein an RCIED struck an IMF vehi- Ghazni City itself two mortars 22 operations conducted through- cle, killing one IMF and seriously wounding struck to the north of the DAC. out the province. In Gelan Dis- three others. In neither case were significant trict alone, seven separate opera- Vehicle accidents were also prominent over damage or injuries incurred. tions were conducted near the the past two weeks, with three incidents ac- This is not to imply that AOG villages of Gali and Mirza Khel, resulting in the deaths of five counting for injuries to a total of 15 civilians were inactive; in fact, AOG man- and the deaths of four ANP. aged to launch at least 18 separate AOG and the detention of an- What has been surprising is the lack of demon- direct attacks – primarily using other 15 fighters. In Giro Dis- strations associated with the recent parliamen- only SAF – on IMF/ANSF pa- trict, IMF/ANSF search opera- tary elections, as President Karzai reluctantly trols, convoys and facilities. As in tions uncovered a total of 500 kgs inaugurated the new Parliament, which fea- the past, local AOG appeared of explosives, and a variety of tures no Pashtun representation from the reluctant to engage units for pro- small arms and ammunition. province. Losing candidates have vowed to longed periods, and broke off Lastly, Andar District – a tradi- continue their efforts to have the results over- contact after a brief initial am- tional hot-spot of AOG activity – turned, however they have apparently not cho- bush/engagement. However, witnessed several raids which re- sen to mobilize supporters until the fate of the there were exceptions to this. In sulted in the detention of at least investigations of the ‘special court’ set up by Qarabagh District, near the village 12 AOG and a small quantity of unspecified weapons and ammu- President Karzai become more clear. THE ANSO REPORT Page 22

NGO Incidents PAKTIKA Year to Date 0 PAKTIKA 150 This Report Period 0 Paktika Province hosted a rich 100 variety of incidents as both AOG force was successfully repelled. and IMF/ANSF appeared to As with previous report periods, 50 maintain a brisk pace of opera- there was little overall effect from tions. Direct clashes, indirect fire the 11 separate indirect fire at- 0 against IMF/ANSF facilities, IMF tacks launched by AOG, hinting air strikes and search operations at a lack of proper training on all featured in the most recent these weapons systems. PAKTIKA AOG PAKTIKA Crime report period. IEDs usually play a minor role in Rockets and mortars were used by the province, and this report pe- IMF/ANSF operations took place on eight AOG in the districts of Dila, Sar riod was no exception with only separate occasions, with the majority of these Hawza, Barmal, Khushamand and six incidents recorded, however, being search operations resulting in the seizure Gayan, primarily targeting the in the village of Zara Qala, in of a relatively small amount of explosives and DACs of these districts as well as Khushamand District, a total of weaponry. Gomal and Barmal Districts hosted several IMF facilities. In one of 13 civilians were killed when a IMF air strikes on one occasion each, killing a the more ambitious attacks, a local Zaranj motorcycle, acting as total of four AOG that were caught planting force of AOG initially fired mor- a taxi, was struck by a roadside IEDs in those areas. Operations in the DACs tars at an IMF facility near the IED, killing all of its passengers as of Ziruk, Urgun and Sarobi resulted in a total DAC of Gayan District, and then well as several nearby pedestrians. of 12 AOG detained and a small quantity of followed this up with a direct at- It is unknown whether this was weapons seized. Lastly, an IMF patrol arrested tack using SAF and RPG fire. deliberate – i.e., an RCIED – or it two suspected AOG as they were filming an Several IMF were injured however was an unattended IED that was IMF convoy; surprisingly, the suspects had no deaths were reported as a re- unfortunately detonated by the videos of AOG attacking of IMF convoys in sult of this operation, and the vehicle. their possession.

NGO Incidents ZABUL Year to Date 0 ZABUL This Report Period 0 100 Zabul Province enjoyed a slight 80 District, wounding two PSC be- downturn in the number of inci- 60 dents during the report period, fore breaking off contact. 40 with AOG launching a small IEDs were particularly effective number of attacks and the major- during the report period, as a total 20 ity of incidents being IED-related, of 11 ANP were killed in four 0 many of which involving signifi- separate incidents which took cant casualties. place in Shamulzayi, Qalat and ZABUL AOG ZABUL Crime Interestingly, the most significant Mizan Districts, with Mizan host- incident appears to be a clash be- ing two of these. Five AOG were roadside IEDs. Similarly, IMF detained three tween rival AOG groups in Day- also killed near Angorak village of AOG, including a mid-level commander, dur- chopan District, where a reported Arghandab District when the ing an operation launched near the Qalat 13 AOG were killed during a IEDs they were attempting to DAC. In another notable incident, near the lengthy exchange of SAF. The deploy were detonated accidently. village of Zanszir in Qalat District, ANP dis- cause of this conflict is still un- Another two AOG were killed in covered 45 AK-47s, 33 loaded magazines and known as of the time of writing. Chinay village of Shahjoy District 11 pistols that were concealed in a local 303 Elsewhere, AOG launched a pro- when a similar accident occurred. bus, and arrested two suspects. longed attack against a joint IMF/ IMF/ANSF activity was mostly Unfortunately, road accidents injured a total of ANSF patrol in the area of Khan- limited to IED discovery and dis- 12 civilians in three separate accidents, the jak in Arghandab District, which posal operations, however in Mula worst occurring when a local Townace taxi resulted in five AOG detained and Din village in Qalat District, rolled over near Tazir Abad village in Shahjoy one civilian killed in the crossfire. IMF/ANSF arrested seven AOG District, seriously injuring its six passengers, Lastly, AOG attacked a PSC con- members and seized three motor- including three women and a small child. voy near Khan village in Qalat cycles as the AOG were deploying THE ANSO REPORT Page 23

NGO Incidents URUZGAN Year to Date 0 URUZGAN This Report Period 0 100 The level of incidents decreased in 80 Uruzgan Province as compared to killed and another ANP and one the previous report period, as civilian were wounded. In other 60 AOG avoided direct clashes with actions, AOG hung a recent re- 40 IMF/ANSF units. IED incidents cruit to the ANP in the border 20 however, have increased slightly area with Gizab District, as well as 0 with both IMF/ANSF and civil- shooting a civilian in Tirin Kot for ians affected by strikes. IMF/ ‘collaboration’ with the GOA and URUZGAN AOG URUZGAN Crime ANSF continued their efforts to IMF. containing a Provincial Council member drove discover AOG supply caches in IED incidents made up the major- the province. by. The explosion wounded three ANP, and ity of reported incidents during four civilians, including one child. Although AOG generally did not the last two weeks, with seven seek out direct engagement with strikes taking place, and another IMF/ANSF operations took place on 12 sepa- ANSF, one incident deserves eight discovery and disposal inci- rate occasions, primarily in the district of De- note. While passing through the dents. The most impactful of hrawud. A variety of weapons and ammuni- area of Khush Khadir in Chora these occurred in Tirin Kot Dis- tion were seized and a total of four AOG de- District, a convoy of police vehi- trict, wherein an RCIED struck an tained as a result of these activities, however cles, destined for ANP units in IMF vehicle, killing one IMF in- the amount of materiel seized appears to have Gizab District of neighbouring terpreter and wounding two IMF, dropped off as the caches used by area AOG Daykundi Province, was attacked and in the Dehrawud DAC, where become harder to locate, following the impres- by AOG. As a result, two ANP an RCIED, attached to a parked sive seizures witnessed over the last six weeks. and three AOG members were bicycle, detonated as a convoy

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