2019
ALBERTA
ELECTIONOverview and Strategy
GUIDE
2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018
Table of Contents General Election Overview ...... 2 Legislative Changes since 2015 ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. Fundraising and Contributions ...... 3 Nominations ...... 3 Third Party Advertising ...... 3 Current Polling ...... 4 The New Democrats ...... 6 Key Dates ...... 6 Nomination Process ...... 6 Policy and Platform Development ...... 6 Key Influencers in Election Planning ...... 6 Other Information ...... 7 The United Conservative Party ...... 8 Key Dates ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. Nomination Process ...... 8 Policy and Platform Development ...... 8 Key Influencers in Election Planning ...... 8 Other Information ...... 9 The Alberta Party ...... 11 Key Dates ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. Nomination Process ...... 11 Policy and Platform Development ...... 11 Key Influencers in Election Planning ...... 11 Other information ...... 11 Other Parties ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. APPENDIX – 2018 Calendar ...... Error! Bookmark not defined.
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 General Election Overview • The next general election is currently scheduled to occur within the 3-month period beginning on March 1 and ending on May 31 in 2019. However, the Lieutenant Governor can dissolve the Legislature before this date, if necessary. • There are approximately 2.6 million electors on the list of electors. • 87 seats; 44 to obtain a majority
2015 Election Present NDP 54 54 UCP -- 26 Alberta Party 1 3 Alberta Liberal 1 1 Progressive Conservative 9 1 Wildrose 21 -- Independents 0 1 Vacant 1 1
Fundraising and Contributions • Whether to a party, constituency association, candidate, nomination contestant or leadership contestant, only ordinary residents of Alberta may make political contributions. A contribution is any money, real property, goods or services, or the use of real property, goods or services, provided to or for the benefit of a political entity without compensation from the political entity to the donor. Only registered entities can accept contributions. o Once registered, political parties may accept contributions, at any time o Constituency associations may accept contributions at any time, except during a campaign period for an election o Candidates may accept contributions only during a campaign period for an election o Nomination contestants may accept contributions only during a campaign period for a nomination contest o Leadership contestants may accept contributions only during a campaign period for a leadership contest • Contributions shall not exceed $4,000 per calendar year to any, or any combination of the above. • Corporations, unincorporated associations, and organizations are prohibited entities, and therefore prohibited from making contributions. This also includes trade unions and employee organizations, as defined by the EFCDA.
Nominations • It is important to note, that according to new provisions under the EFCDA, Elections Alberta now manages nomination contests, including the registration, reporting, and disclosure of information relative to the contest. o Registered parties and constituency associations are responsible for notifying Elections Alberta of a nomination, from when the contest will take place through to the result of the contest. o Potential nomination contestants are responsible for registering with Elections Alberta at the earliest of the following: § when the person announces his or her intention to seek endorsement as the official candidate of a registered party in an electoral division, or § when the person incurs expenses in relation to the person’s nomination campaign, or § when the person receives contributions in relation to the person’s nomination campaign. • All nomination contestants registering with Elections Alberta must appoint a chief financial officer who is responsible for ensuring compliance with all aspects of the contestant’s campaign finances, including the filing of a nomination contestant campaign return.
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 Fundraising and Contributions • Whether to a party, constituency association, candidate, nomination contestant or leadership contestant, only ordinary residents of Alberta may make political contributions. A contribution is any money, real property, goods or services, or the use of real property, goods or services, provided to or for the benefit of a political entity without compensation from the political entity to the donor. Only registered entities can accept contributions. o Once registered, political parties may accept contributions, at any time o Constituency associations may accept contributions at any time, except during a campaign period for an election o Candidates may accept contributions only during a campaign period for an election o Nomination contestants may accept contributions only during a campaign period for a nomination contest o Leadership contestants may accept contributions only during a campaign period for a leadership contest • Contributions shall not exceed $4,000 per calendar year to any, or any combination of the above. • Corporations, unincorporated associations, and organizations are prohibited entities, and therefore prohibited from making contributions. This also includes trade unions and employee organizations, as defined by the EFCDA.
Nominations • It is important to note, that according to new provisions under the EFCDA, Elections Alberta now manages nomination contests, including the registration, reporting, and disclosure of information relative to the contest. o Registered parties and constituency associations are responsible for notifying Elections Alberta of a nomination, from when the contest will take place through to the result of the contest. o Potential nomination contestants are responsible for registering with Elections Alberta at the earliest of the following: § when the person announces his or her intention to seek endorsement as the official candidate of a registered party in an electoral division, or § when the person incurs expenses in relation to the person’s nomination campaign, or § when the person receives contributions in relation to the person’s nomination campaign. • All nomination contestants registering with Elections Alberta must appoint a chief financial officer who is responsible for ensuring compliance with all aspects of the contestant’s campaign finances, including the filing of a nomination contestant campaign return.
Third Party Advertising • Elections Alberta is now responsible for the management of registration, reporting and disclosure of third party advertisers as it relates to Election Advertising and Political Advertising. o “Election Advertising” means advertising that promotes or opposes a registered party or a registered candidate during an election period, including advertising that takes a position on an issue with which a registered party or registered candidate is associated. o “Political Advertising” means advertising at any time other than an election period that promotes or opposes a registered party, the leader of a registered party, a member of the Legislative Assembly, a registered nomination contestant, a registered leadership contestant, or the election of a registered candidate. Political advertising includes advertising that takes a position on an issue with which a registered party, the leader of a registered party, a member of the Legislative Assembly, a registered nomination contestant, a registered leadership contestant, or a registered candidate is associated. • Third Party Advertisers that must register with Elections Alberta are persons, corporations or groups that: o Have incurred or plan to incur $1,000 in advertising expenses o Accepted or plan to accept $1,000 in advertising contributions • Only persons ordinarily resident in Alberta may make election advertising contributions to third party advertisers. An advertising contribution is any money, real property, goods or services, or the use of real property, goods or
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 services provided to or for the benefit of a third party, without compensation from that third party, for the purpose of election advertising or political advertising, whether given before or after the third party becomes registered with Elections Alberta. • There are no contribution limits prescribed for contributions made to third party advertisers. • Election Advertising occurs, in the case of a general election in accordance with a fixed election period. In all other instances, the election advertising period is from the issuance of a writ of election until the end of polling day. Current registrants for Election Advertising include (please note, most of these organizations registered for the purposes of the Calgary Lougheed By-Election in December 2017): o 1ABVote o Alberta Advantage Fund o Alberta Medical Association o Alberta Union of Provincial Employees o Alberta Victory Fund o Save Alberta’s Vibrant Economy o Value Drue Mart Associates Ltd. • Political Advertising occurs any time outside of an election period, as prescribed by the issuance of a writ. Current registrants for Political Advertising include: o AA Fund o Alberta Advantage Fund o Alberta Can’t Wait o Alberta Federation of Labour Inc. o Alberta Victory Fund o Balanced Alberta Fund Inc. o International Brotherhood of Electrical Works Local 424 o Merit Contractors Association o Progress Alberta o Project Alberta o The Alberta Fund o The Wilberforce Project o United Liberty
Current Polling • January 24, 2018 (MAINSTREET Research) Margin of Error +/- 3.11%
Decided and Leaning Voters All Voters Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta UCP 55.9% 57.4% 44.3% 65.2% NDP 27.3% 26.2% 38.1% 18.2% Alberta Party 7% 8.2% 5.2% 7.0% Alberta Liberals 6.7% 6.9% 8.8% 4.5% Alberta Green Party 3.1% 1.4% 3.5% 5.1%
• April 26, 2018 (MAINSTREET Research) Margin of Error +/- 3.11%
Decided and Leaning Voters All Voters Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta UCP 48.6% 45.6% 38.6% 62.0%
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 NDP 35.4% 36.7% 45.5% 24.3% Alberta Party 5.1% 4.4% 7.2% 4.1% Alberta Liberals 6.2% 9.0% 5.4% 2.9% Alberta Green Party 2.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.2%
• April 28, 2018 (CBC Poll conducted by Janet Brown) Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Decided and Leaning Voters All Voters Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta UCP 53% 58% 38% 63% NDP 29% 27% 39% 20% Alberta Party 11% 8% 14% 12% Alberta Liberals 6% 6% 8% 4% Alberta Green Party < 1% < 1% <1% <1% & Other
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 The New Democrats
Key Dates • September 28-30: Provincial Convention (Red Deer)
Nomination Process Due to the party’s historically small size, and its tendency toward collective efforts, there have been few contested nominations at the constituency level in the past. Most candidates in the past have been acclaimed, due in large part to a lack of major interest by competing individuals. In such cases, almost all acclaimed, or otherwise “nominated” candidates have the tacit blessing of the larger party apparatus. Many supporters of the party, and current constituency and political staffers, have run as candidates in past elections.
Change is expected in the 2019 election process however, as some MLAs choose not to run again. The highest profile of these constituencies will be Edmonton Highlands-Norwood, where long-serving NDP MLA Brian Mason may trigger a competitive nomination race in the event he chooses to retire from politics. The riding of Edmonton-Whitemud (currently held by NDP MLA Bob Turner) may also come open for such a contest.
Policy and Platform Development Provincial Council meetings are the primary and formal venue for grassroots policy development. These occur two to four times each year, and result in formal resolutions being fed into the provincial party. These are then included in the policy debates that occur at the party’s biennial Provincial Convention. More subtle avenues to inform policy development exist. For example, government has launched a 2018 review of the Persons with Developmental Disabilities programming. This will provide a valuable report to government around the time of the next election, on an issue the party is passionate about, but on which government has not yet been focused in its mandate. These types of fact-gathering exercises will serve multiple purposes.
Key Influencers in Election Planning • Nathan Rotman: Premier Notley’s chief of staff and former national director of the federal NDP • Anne McGrath: Deputy chief of staff to Premier Notley. Former president and deputy director of the federal NDP, and chief of staff to Jack Layton. Recognized as one of the most influential political operatives in Canada. Alberta NDP candidate in the 1990s, and failed Alberta NDP leadership candidate in 1995 (best by Ross Harvey) • Ed Broadbent: a fixture of the NDP in Canada, and Chair of the Broadbent Institute, which serves a mission to further progressive politics across Canada. This institute supports other likeminded groups such as Progress Alberta in Alberta. • Brad Lavigne: National campaign director for the federal NDP during their historic rise in the 2011 election, and senior advisor to the federal NDP during the 2015 federal election. Former communications director for Jack Layton and the federal party. Prior roles with the party in B.C. Well-connected to the Alberta government. H&K Consultant. • Robin Sears: Also a former national director of the federal party. Involved with the party for more than 30 years. Earnscliffe consultant. • Brian Topp: Former Chief of Staff to Premier Notley, also a lifelong federal New Democrat. Ran for the leadership of the party against Thomas Mulcair. Ran the NDP war room during the 2015 Notley campaign in Alberta. • Mark Wells: Alberta-based communications professional and AUPE labour lawyer. Served as the first Executive Director of the Public Affairs Bureau following 2015 election. Currently labour lawyer with United Nurses of Alberta and Executive Director of the Alberta Project political action committee. • Jamey Heath: Research and communications director for the federal NDP under Jack Layton. Failed nomination candidate to replace Ed Broadbent in Ottawa Centre (defeated by Paul Dewar). Turned consultant with KTG public
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 affairs in the absence of Brian Topp serving for the Notley administration. Assumed an ED post in the Government of Alberta’s Public Affairs Bureau about one year ago, following Topp’s return to KTG following his cooling-off period. • Lou Arab: Long-time AUPE communications professional, Alberta NDP fundraiser and political strategist. Spouse of Premier Rachel Notley. • Gerry Scott: BC NDP strategist who served as director of the 2015 Alberta election campaign for the Notley NDP. o http://www.vancouversun.com/news/vaughn+palmer+meet+architect+stunning+alberta+victory/11034993 /story.html
Other Information • Fundraising – YTD for 2017 o Contributions $250 and under: $508,715.01 o Contributions over $250: $1,192,806.68 o Grand Total: $1,701,521.69 • Fundraising – YTD (January 1 – March 31, 2018) o Contributions $250 and under: $195,256.53 o Contributions over $250: $133,714.90 o Grant totals: $328,971.43
• Party currently drafting constituency guides for founding meetings following boundary redistribution o Assets and liabilities will follow incumbents and be distributed by percentage of membership change from old boundaries to new boundaries for non-incumbents. o Focus is on redistribution work. Completed as soon as possible, move forward with founding meetings.
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 The United Conservative Party
Nomination Process The formal candidate nomination period has opened.
As a general note, senior leadership has noted that the vetting process for all candidates will be more stringent than in the past under the PC or WRP organizations. Rona Ambrose (former federal MP) and Jeff Henwood (former Chief of Staff) are currently recruiting possible candidates for the nomination process.
Despite there not being a formal nomination process in place as of yet, individuals have begun registering their intent according to Elections Alberta’s guidelines:
Policy and Platform Development The Grassroots Guarantee policy development process characterized by regional conferences, constituency meetings, and online input was successful. This enabled all party members to democratically adopt the UCP’s first policy declaration during the AGM held in Red Deer from May 4
Leading up to the conference, the policy committee of the UCP (created by the unification agreement) have developed its own proposed approach to policy development, which is similar to what Jason Kenney had proposed but with one main difference – the policy committee offered a draft policy declaration as a framework document for discussion purposes, in advance of the upcoming convention. A copy of that document can be found here.
Based on this declaration, the UCP has canvased members to get feedback on policy and governance proposals that were debated, voted on and ratified at the Founding Convention. This aims to be the foundations of a party platform that the UCP will present to Albertans as a vision for renewing the Alberta Advantage.
While Mr. Kenney has emphasized the importance of policy developments originating among members, he has been clear with his intent on one particular file, that being the carbon tax. He has robustly taken direct aim at organizations and executives thought to be overly supportive of the Alberta Government’s carbon tax – namely Suncor, Cenovus, CNRL, Shell and Enbridge – most of whom were not supportive of his campaign or candidacy. Despite urgings to the contrary, Mr. Kenney has remained unwavering that if the United Conservative Party of Alberta is elected as government in 2019, Bill 1 will repeal Alberta’s carbon levy.
Mr. Kenney has, on more than one occasion, emphasized the development of policy by UCP membership – he has also set precedence in stating he takes ownership regarding the party platform heading into the 2019 election. Mr. Kenney following the AGM stated, “I will take the resolutions adopted today as important, but I hold the pen on the platform… ultimately the leader is responsible for producing a balanced, winning platform. That is my intention.” As such, it is evident that passed policy resolutions will not necessarily translate into election platform material or prospective policy if the UCP is to form Government in 2019. All passed policy resolutions should be viewed with a political lens as we progress towards the 2019 election – they are not conclusive.
Key Influencers in Election Planning To date, Mr. Kenney’s campaigns have been staffed by large numbers of volunteers, however the inner circle of advisors and influencers is tightly comprised of individuals Mr. Kenney has known and trusted over many years. These individuals, with few exemptions, have been involved with Mr. Kenney during his federal campaigns, in either an organizing or fundraising capacity, or through his time with the Canadian Taxpayers Association. 8 | Page
2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018
He counts a handful of current or former MP’s such as James Rajotte and Rona Ambrose as trusted advisors and relies heavily on former Prime Minister Stephen Harper for counsel and support. Ms. Ambrose in particular has been involved in recruiting candidates, especially female candidates, to seek UCP nominations.
Kenney campaign staff have transitioned to full time positions within the UCP including Blaise Boehmer, Manager of Outreach in Calgary, Dan Williams, Manager of Outreach in Edmonton and Matt Wolf as Deputy Chief of Staff. Jeff Henwood, a former Chief of Staff, along with Ms. Ambrose, is overseeing candidate recruitment.
There are a couple of influential external organizations of note that support Mr. Kenney. The Alberta Advantage Fund and Alberta Can’t Wait are both pro-Kenney Political Action Committees. The Alberta Advantage Fund, very successful in raising significant contributions for Mr. Kenney’s leadership and unification efforts, will be undergoing staffing changes soon with new personnel from the Kenney camp coming in to run the organization. Current indications are that Anne Jordan, a Registered Nurse by background and key Edmonton organizer for the Kenney campaign may transition from the campaign to the PAC. Albertans can expect to see aggressive messaging and the fundraising campaign to continue through these various tools.
UCP Staff Members • Nick Koolsbergen – Chief of Staff • Matt Wolf – Deputy Chief of Staff • Lianne Bell – Director of Stakeholder Relations • James Johnson – Director of Research • Jamie Mozeson – Director of Operations • Christine Way – Director of Strategic Communications • Peter Bissonnette – Executive Assistant • Peter Csillag – Director of Issues Management • Annie Dormuth – Press Secretary • Benjamyn McKay – Manager of Legislative Affairs • Dan Williams – Manager of Outreach (Edmonton) • Blaise Boehmer – Manager of Outreach (Calgary)
Policy Committee Members • Jason Copping (co-chair) • Tim Dyck (co-chair) • Clyde Corser • Margitta Dziewenka • Peter McCaffrey • Steven McLeod • Bettina Pierre-Gilles • David Price • Trevor Shelley • Jason West
Other Information • Fundraising – YTD for 2017 (Please note the UCP only existed for the final two quarters) o Contributions $250 and under: $396,918.15 o Contributions over $250: $242,982.80
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 o Grand Total: $639,900.95 • Fundraising – YTD (January 1 – March 31, 2018) o Contributions $250 and under: $186,564.76 o Contributions over $250: $91,127.40 o Grand Total: $277,692.16
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018 The Alberta Party
Nomination Process This process has been suspended due to the leadership race. However, senior party leaders had the internal aim of having candidates chosen by September 2018. This still is the internal goal but may be altered by the new leader.
Policy and Platform Development Following the resignation of Greg Clark and the establishment of a leadership contest, senior party leaders determined that policy development would be postponed until a new leader was in place to provide direction. However, prior to this, the Alberta Party was planning for a policy conference mid-year in June or July. Party leaders are still aiming for that time frame following the conclusion of the leadership race.
Key Influencers in Election Planning • Mark Taylor – Executive Director of the Alberta Party • Jackie Clayton – Member, Board of Directors and Grande Prairie City Councilor • Niall Condon – Director of Legislative Affairs and Communications, Alberta Party caucus staff
Other information • Fundraising – YTD for 2017 o Contributions $250 and under: $37,905.06 o Contributions over $250: $104,849.31 o Grand Total: $142,754.37
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018
September 2018
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Canadian Parliament – Fall Sitting
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 AUMA AUMA AUMA AB NDP AB NDP Convention Convention 30
AB NDP Convention
September 17 – Canadian Parliament Fall Sitting Notes September 26 to 28 – AUMA Convention (Red Deer) September 28 to 30 – Alberta NDP Convention (Red Deer)
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018
October 2018
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28 29 30 31 AB Legislature – Fall
(T) October 1 – Quebec Election Notes (T) October 9 to 26 – Fall Report of the Auditor General October 29 – Alberta Legislature resumes sitting
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018
November 2018
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November 12 to November 15 – Legislature Constituency Week break Notes
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2019 Provincial Election Guide: Overview and Strategy September 13, 2018
December 2018
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December 24 to January 2, 2019 – Government Christmas Break Notes
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