Prepared by: Innovative Research Group, Inc. • www.innovativeresearch.ca

Canada This Month In-depth: NDP Leadership

March 22, 2012 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Purpose

• Over the past seven months, seven candidates have battled to replace as leader of the federal NDP, Canada’s official opposition. • Despite the NDP’s status as Official Opposition, few have paid much attention the race and most know little of the candidates and their platforms. • Rather than focus on the personalities of the race, INNOVATIVE has focused on some of the ideas. • We wanted to explore to what degree the ideas put forward by the leadership candidates have the ability to grow the NDP base. 3 Methodology

• These are the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) poll conducted from March 20 – 21, 2012. • This online survey of 1,193 Canadian adults was conducted on INNOVATIVE’s Canada 20/20 national panel. • The Canada 20/20 Panel is recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. • INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. • An unweighted probability sample of this size would have an estimated margin of error of ± 2.84 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Note: Graphs and tables may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 4 Segmentation: Where did respondents come from? Regional groupings include: . (Yukon) . (Northwest Territories) . Prairie Region (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nunavut) National . . n=1,193 . Atlantic (PEI, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador)

British Columbia n=162 Quebec Prairies n=295 n=76 Alberta n=116 Atlantic n=87 Ontario n=456 5

Context NDP Leadership Candidates: An overview 6

Niki Ashton, Member of Parliament for Churchill, is the youngest candidate for NDP leader. First elected to Parliament in 2008, Ms. Ashton is running a leadership campaign based on a platform of “new politics,” as she feels her campaign has the best understanding of how to engage young people. She is not in favour of shutting down the oil sands, instead calling for efforts to reduce the oil sands’ environmental footprint and ensure that processing jobs are not sent overseas.

Ms. Ashton voted in favour of scrapping the long gun registry in 2010, but in 2011 was a vocal opponent of destroying the data contained in the registry after the 41st Parliament voted to dismantle this project.

Niki Ashton Ms. Ashton is fluent in French.

Nathan Cullen has been the Member of Parliament for the British Columbia riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley since 2004. He is the only candidate in favour of cooperation between left-of-centre parties in the next election, for the purpose of defeating the Conservatives. He is a vocal opponent of the Northern Gateway pipeline, which would run through his riding, if completed. Mr. Cullen is against the federal government subsidizing the oil sands and in favour of keeping resources in Canada for processing.

Mr. Cullen voted in favour of scrapping the long gun registry in 2010 but voted with the NDP caucus in 2012 when the bill was brought back before Parliament.

Nathan Mr. Cullen can speak French. Cullen NDP Leadership Candidates: An overview 7

Paul Dewar was first elected to the House of Commons in 2006 as the Member of Parliament for Centre. Mr. Dewar has focused a great deal of his campaign on detailing the way in which he would expand the NDP to the next 70 seats it needs in order to win government in the 2015 election. Mr. Dewar is an advocate for labour, public servants and was the NDP’s foreign affairs critic until stepping aside to run for leader. Mr. Dewar is in favour of environmentally sustainable development of the oil sands.

Mr. Dewar is not fluent in French.

Paul Dewar Thomas Mulcair is the MP for Outremont and a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister in Quebec. Mr. Mulcair advocates “bringing the centre to the Party,” and says the NDP must make more an effort to reach out to rural Canadians and young people, while still holding on to its new seats in Quebec. Mr. Mulcair was the Quebec lieutenant and Deputy Leader under previous NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Mr. Mulcair is in favour of reversing corporate tax cuts and adding an additional tax to corporations in the natural resource sector. He is in favour of a long gun registry and has publicly stated his opposition to the Northern Gateway Pipeline running through British Columbia and his opposition to the $1.3 billion government subsidies to the oil sands in Alberta.

Mr. Mulcair is fluent in both English and in French. Thomas Mulcair NDP Leadership Candidates: An overview 8

Peggy Nash was the NDP Member of Parliament for Parkdale—High Park from 2006-2008 and was re-elected in the 2011 general election. A former union leader, Ms. Nash also has experience of having been the NDP’s president and is a former finance critic in the House.

Ms. Nash has run on an economy-focused campaign that relies on secondary, interconnected planks of environment and social justice. During her leadership campaign, she has advocated for federal reduction of tuition at post-secondary educational institutions and is against Mr. Mulcair’s perceived attempts to move the NDP towards the centre to attract support.

Peggy Nash Ms. Nash can speak French, but is not fluent.

Martin Singh is a Canadian Forces reservist and small business owner from Nova Scotia. He has never run for elected office, but is a long-time member of the . His campaign has been focused around small business and pharmacare.

Recently, Mr. Singh told his supporters – many of whom are members of visible minorities in British Columbia – to support Mr. Mulcair on the second ballot, leading to criticism from media and other candidates that he was merely a spoiler in the race who ran only to garner support for Mr. Mulcair’s campaign.

Martin Mr. Singh is not fluent in French. Singh NDP Leadership Candidates: An overview 9

Brian Topp is a former NDP president, strategist and union leader. He and Mr. Mulcair are the only native-Quebeckers in the leadership race.

Mr. Topp has been a vocal critic of Mr. Mulcair’s perceived willingness to move the NDP to the centre to appeal to Liberal and Green voters. He cites growing inequality as the most important issue facing Canadians today, and is an advocate of raising taxes on the rich and big business to ensure they are doing their fair share.

He has publicly opposed building an oil pipeline through northern British Columbia and is opposed to exporting raw natural resource exports when people need jobs here in Canada. Mr. Topp is fluently bilingual. Policy statements: Party cooperation, Quebec 10

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign…

The NDP, Greens and Liberals It is critically important to ensure There are a lot of issues Any leader who wants should work together to beat there is one federalist party in where it makes sense to to be taken seriously as the Conservatives by only Quebec that people who oppose do things one way in a potential Prime running one progressive Quebec sovereignty can unite Quebec and another way Minister must be candidate in Conservative-held behind. in the rest of Canada. comfortably bilingual. seats.

Niki Ashton

Nathan Cullen

Paul Dewar

Thomas Mulcair

Peggy Nash

Martin Singh

Brian Topp

Note: INNOVATIVE has created this matrix based on an overall scan of candidates’ public statements, platforms and media interviews. However, this matrix is not exclusive; some candidates may hold views not indicated here. Policy statements: Social justice, foreign affairs 11

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign…

The long gun The federal government The federal When it comes to Canada should only registry is an needs actively support government must international affairs, Canada send troops abroad important public the rights of women to take action to ensure should stop focusing so as part of military safety tool and make their own women receive equal much on our military and missions with a UN should be brought reproductive choices. pay for equal work. spend more time and effort mandate. back. on diplomacy and foreign aid.

Niki Ashton

Nathan Cullen

Paul Dewar

Thomas Mulcair

Peggy Nash

Martin Singh

Brian Topp

Note: INNOVATIVE has created this matrix based on an overall scan of candidates’ public statements, platforms and media interviews. However, this matrix is not exclusive; some candidates may hold views not indicated here. Policy statements: Jobs, economy 12

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign…

The government should We need to raise The federal Every Canadian should The federal discourage the export of taxes on the rich and government should have the right to retire government must raw natural resources and big business to encourage the growth and live with dignity. take action to close encourage the use of those ensure they pay their of unions in Canada. the gap between rich resources to create jobs fair share. and poor in Canada. here in Canada.

Niki Ashton

Nathan Cullen

Paul Dewar

Thomas Mulcair

Peggy Nash

Martin Singh

Brian Topp

Note: INNOVATIVE has created this matrix based on an overall scan of candidates’ public statements, platforms and media interviews. However, this matrix is not exclusive; some candidates may hold views not indicated here. Policy statements: Tuition, environment 13

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign…

The federal funding for The government Canada should introduce a It is wrong to Canada should play a post secondary should stop offering cap and trade system for build an oil leading and proactive education should be tax breaks and greenhouse gases so that pipeline international role on targeted towards incentives to subsidize the price of products such through British environmental issues. reducing tuition fees for development of the oil as oil includes the Columbia. students. sands. environmental damage it creates.

Niki Ashton

Nathan Cullen

Paul Dewar

Thomas Mulcair

Peggy Nash

Martin Singh

Brian Topp

Note: INNOVATIVE has created this matrix based on an overall scan of candidates’ public statements, platforms and media interviews. However, this matrix is not exclusive; some candidates may hold views not indicated here. 14

The Universe Tory Universe: Conservative base largest in Alberta, 15 Ontario 36%

18% 15% 16% 12% 3%

Firm Tory Soft Tory True Undecided 2nd Choice Tory Non-Tory Hostile-Tory

Quebec 4% 10% 13% 5% 31% 36%

Ontario 24% 20% 8% 1% 7% 41%

Alberta 18% 25% 14% 1% 19% 23%

British Columbia 11% 20% 15% 6% 12% 36%

Note: Samples in Atlantic and Prairies too small for breakout. 16

Values Government spending decisions: Country split on what 17 should justify spending When governments make major decisions concerning spending on programs and services, do you think they should be (ROTATE Q STATEMENTS) basing their decisions mainly on their ability to afford the programs and services OR mainly on the public's need for the programs and services?

Overall 42% 13% 45%

Firm Tory 73% 17% 10%

Soft Tory 64% 11% 25%

Truly uncommitted 24% 23% 53%

2nd Choice Tory 44% 10% 45%

Non-Tory 39% 12% 50%

Hostile-Tory 27% 9% 64%

Atlantic 48% 7% 44%

Quebec 45% 12% 44%

Ontario 47% 14% 39%

Prairies 31% 28% 41%

Alberta 40% 9% 52%

British Columbia 28% 11% 61%

Their ability to afford the programs and services Don't know The public's need for the programs and services Role of government: Quebec and Prairies most supportive 18 of redistributing wealth Is the main role of government (ROTATE STATEMENTS)... to create equal opportunity so that everyone can compete on their own to Q be the best they can be; OR to redistribute wealth so that the poor and disadvantaged have more than they would if left on their own?

Overall 62% 10% 28%

Firm Tory 94% 1% 4%

Soft Tory 85% 6% 9%

Truly uncommitted 47% 27% 25%

2nd Choice Tory 63% 7% 30%

Non-Tory 61% 6% 33%

Hostile-Tory 43% 12% 45%

Atlantic 69% 8% 23%

Quebec 48% 12% 41%

Ontario 69% 7% 24%

Prairies 48% 24% 28%

Alberta 69% 13% 18%

British Columbia 65% 9% 26%

To create equal opportunity so that everyone can compete Don't know To redistribute wealth so poor/disadvantaged have more Economic alienation: Half (50%) say individual is to 19 blame, but one-third (32%) unsure Generally, do you think people who don’t get ahead in life should blame… Q

Overall 50% 32% 19%

Firm Tory 82% 14% 4%

Soft Tory 61% 29% 11%

Truly uncommitted 54% 37% 8%

2nd Choice Tory 75% 7% 18%

Non-Tory 48% 31% 21%

Hostile-Tory 29% 41% 31%

Atlantic 36% 53% 12%

Quebec 54% 23% 23%

Ontario 52% 34% 15%

Prairies 42% 34% 24%

Alberta 58% 27% 15%

British Columbia 43% 32% 25%

Themselves Don't know The system Environment vs. economy: Country split on priority; those 20 most likely to vote Conservative most likely to choose ec When it comes to trade-offs between the environment or the economy, which is more important to you… Q

Overall 44% 10% 46%

Firm Tory 8% 2% 89%

Soft Tory 22% 17% 61%

Truly uncommitted 31% 22% 47%

2nd Choice Tory 19% 5% 76%

Non-Tory 52% 9% 39%

Hostile-Tory 72% 7% 21%

Atlantic 43% 10% 47%

Quebec 45% 11% 44%

Ontario 43% 9% 49%

Prairies 61% 5% 34%

Alberta 37% 12% 52%

British Columbia 45% 12% 43%

Environment Don't know Economy The profit system: Majority believe profit system teaches 21 people the value of hard work Which of the following statements comes closest to your view: (ROTATE STATEMENTS) The profit system brings out the worst in Q human nature, OR the profit system teaches people the value of hard work and success?

Overall 36% 11% 53%

Firm Tory 11% 2% 87%

Soft Tory 22% 4% 74%

Truly uncommitted 30% 28% 42%

2nd Choice Tory 20% 11% 70%

Non-Tory 36% 13% 51%

Hostile-Tory 57% 11% 31%

Atlantic 40% 12% 48%

Quebec 32% 19% 49%

Ontario 37% 6% 57%

Prairies 55% 5% 40%

Alberta 27% 11% 62%

British Columbia 38% 10% 52% The profit system brings out the worst in human nature. Don't know The profit system teaches people the value of hard work and success. Vote Clusters 22

Conservative Business Liberal 20% 30% Left Liberal Levelers 12% Progressive Left 21% 16% Conservative Business Liberal Left Liberal Levelers Progressive Left

Programs and services: ability to Ability to afford Public need Public need Public need Public need afford vs. public need Role of government: Create equal Create equal create equal Create equal opportunity opportunity Redistribute wealth Redistribute wealth opportunity or opportunity redistribute wealth? Who is to blame: individuals or the Individuals Individuals Individuals The system The system system?

Priority: environment Economy Economy Environment A little of each Environment or economy?

Profit system: brings out the worst or Teaches the value of Teaches the value of Brings out the worst Brings out the worst Brings out the worst teaches value of hard hard work hard work work? Vote Clusters vs… 23

…Tory Battleground Conservative 32% 34% 6% 3% 10% 14%

Business Liberal 20% 20% 17% 4% 17% 21%

Left Liberal 4% 12% 13% 2% 23% 45%

Levelers 4% 10% 21% 5% 26% 34%

Progressive Left 4% 9% 1% 11% 74%

Firm Tory Soft Tory True Uncommitted 2nd Choice Tory Non-Tory Hostile Tory …Regions Conservative 7% 22% 46% 4% 11% 10%

Business Liberal 7% 18% 42% 4% 13% 17%

Left Liberal 9% 21% 38% 6% 8% 17%

Levelers 6% 53% 11% 1% 11% 17%

Progressive Left 6% 22% 40% 15% 6% 10%

Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta British Columbia 24

Vote Support for parties: One-third (33%) of national vote to the 25 Conservatives; Bloc tied with NDP in Quebec

Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? 33% 21% 22% 6% 6% 1% 10% 1%

The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party Undecided / don't know Would not vote / none

44% 42% 36% 33% 31% 30% 25% 24% 25% 22% 22% 23% 22% 19% 18% 19% 13% 14% 14% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 9% 10% 7% 5% 4% 3%

British Columbia Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic

Conservative Party Liberal Party New Democratic Party Green Party Undecided Bloc Québécois Decided Vote: Strong Tory hold among decided voters in 26 Alberta and Ontario, NDP tied with Bloc in Quebec

Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? 37% 24% 25% 6% 7% 1%

The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

50% 47% 46%

39% 37% 33% 30% 28% 28% 27% 28% 24% 25% 21% 21% 15% 16% 16% 13% 13% 11% 11% 6% 4% 3%

British Columbia Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic

Conservative Party Liberal Party New Democratic Party Green Party Bloc Québécois 27

NDP Universe Awareness: Two-thirds (67%) of Canadians not following 28 NDP leadership race As you may know, there is currently a federal NDP leadership race to replace Jack Layton, who died last August. Q How closely have you been following the NDP leadership race?

41% Following 67% Not following

41%

26% 26%

4%

Very closely Somewhat closely Not very closely Not at all

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ (2%) not shown Name recognition: Thomas Mulcair has highest name 29 recognition, followed by Topp, Nash and Dewar

Q Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether or not you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a strongly favourable, somewhat favourable, neutral, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you have not heard of that person, please say so.

Thomas Mulcair 10% 16% 22% 12% 8% 32%

Brian Topp 4% 13% 29% 9% 3% 42%

Peggy Nash 5% 17% 24% 5% 5% 44%

Paul Dewar 3% 12% 28% 6% 3% 47%

Martin Singh 4% 29% 4% 5% 57%

Nathan Cullen 4% 10% 23% 4%2% 58%

Niki Ashton 2% 7% 25% 4% 3% 59%

Strongly favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral Somewhat unfavourable Strongly unfavourable Do not recognize the name NDP Universe vs. Regions: Firmest NDP support in Quebec, 30 Alberta and British Columbia

33%

18% 15% 15% 12% 7%

Firm NDP Soft NDP True Undecided 2nd Choice NDP Non-NDP Hostile-NDP

Quebec 7% 18% 13% 22% 37% 2%

Ontario 6% 8% 8% 22% 35% 21%

Alberta 6% 20% 14% 11% 32% 18%

British Columbia 12% 20% 15% 16% 23% 13%

Note: Samples in Atlantic and Prairies too small for breakout. 31

Political Attitudes Political Attitudes 32

For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree or Q strongly disagree with each of the following statements.

It would be a good thing if the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebecois can find a way to work together to 20% 20% 14% 10% 28% replace the Conservatives in government.

Canadian politics is really a two-horse race, only the Liberals and the Conservatives have a real chance of 12% 22% 15% 24% 22% forming government.

A vote for the New Democratic Party will split the centre-left and help the Conservatives win. 8% 27% 23% 15% 13%

I was willing to vote for the NDP when Jack Layton was leader, but I’m not interested in supporting the NDP 5% 16% 25% 15% 34% now that he is gone.

[Asked of 295 respondents in Quebec] The Bloc Quebecois has served its purpose; we don’t need it any more. 35% 12% 17% 12% 20%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Cooperation on the left: Left-leaning Canadians support 33 cooperation; those hostile to NDP do not

For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree or Q strongly disagree with each of the following statements. It would be a good thing if the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Québécois can find a way to work together to replace the Conservatives in government.

Overall 20% 20% 14% 10% 28%

Firm NDP 37% 34% 8% 9% 6%

Soft NDP 29% 38% 12% 12% 8%

Truly uncommitted 18% 16% 26% 11% 9%

2nd Choice NDP 36% 27% 13% 10% 9%

Non-NDP 11% 15% 17% 10% 37%

Hostile-NDP 5% 2% 6% 9% 77%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Horses in the race: NDP supporters think politics is more 34 than a two-horse race; others not so sure

For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree or Q strongly disagree with each of the following statements. Canadian politics is really a two-horse race, only the Liberals and the Conservatives have a real chance of forming government.

Overall 12% 22% 15% 24% 22%

Firm NDP 4% 7% 8% 22% 60%

Soft NDP 10% 17% 14% 34% 26%

Truly uncommitted 4% 25% 19% 19% 16%

2nd Choice NDP 8% 26% 16% 26% 22%

Non-NDP 14% 26% 16% 20% 20%

Hostile-NDP 26% 20% 16% 24% 12%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Splitting the left: Half (52%) of those with NDP as their 35 second choice think voting NDP is a wasted vote

For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree or Q strongly disagree with each of the following statements. A vote for the New Democratic Party will split the centre-left and help the Conservatives win.

Overall 8% 27% 23% 15% 13%

Firm NDP 14% 15% 16% 46%

Soft NDP 5% 21% 25% 29% 14%

Truly uncommitted 6% 15% 30% 14% 3%

2nd Choice NDP 12% 40% 20% 10% 6%

Non-NDP 9% 31% 25% 11% 14%

Hostile-NDP 12% 24% 22% 17% 12%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Jack’s legacy: One-in-five (21%) Canadians no longer 36 interested in voting NDP without Layton at party’s helm

For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree or Q strongly disagree with each of the following statements. I was willing to vote for the NDP when Jack Layton was leader, but I’m not interested in supporting the NDP now that he is gone.

Overall 5% 16% 25% 15% 34%

Firm NDP 1% 4% 2% 5% 87%

Soft NDP 3% 11% 17% 32% 36%

Truly uncommitted 5% 11% 34% 13% 16%

2nd Choice NDP 4% 17% 27% 19% 31%

Non-NDP 7% 23% 30% 13% 19%

Hostile-NDP 4% 12% 24% 3% 54%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Bloc Québécois: Quebeckers whose second choice is the 37 NDP still willing to give the Bloc a chance

For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree or Q strongly disagree with each of the following statements. The Bloc Québécois has served its purpose; we don’t need it any more. [Asked of 295 respondents in Quebec]

Overall 35% 12% 17% 12% 20%

Firm NDP 54% 19% 10% 9% 8%

Soft NDP 41% 14% 28% 8% 10%

Truly uncommitted 28% 19% 18% 12% 6%

2nd Choice NDP 31% 6% 13% 22% 28%

Non-NDP 34% 10% 16% 9% 29%

Hostile-NDP 46% 10% 10% 19% 15%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown 38

Big Ideas Policy statements: Party cooperation, Quebec 39

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with each statement.

The NDP, Greens and Liberals should work together to beat the Conservatives by only running one 12% 19% 18% 13% 30% progressive candidate in Conservative-held seats.

It is critically important to ensure there is one federalist party in Quebec that people who oppose 21% 22% 20% 9% 19% Quebec sovereignty can unite behind.

There are a lot of issues where it makes sense to do things one way in Quebec and another way in the rest 12% 20% 14% 19% 30% of Canada.

Any leader who wants to be taken seriously as a potential Prime Minister must be comfortably 35% 29% 16% 9% 8% bilingual.

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Party cooperation: Cullen’s proposal for cooperation most 40 popular with 2nd Choice NDP-voters

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The NDP, Greens and Liberals should work together to beat the Conservatives by only running one progressive candidate in Conservative-held seats.

Overall 12% 19% 18% 13% 30%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 21% 23% 19% 14% 19%

Dewar Soft NDP 17% 28% 26% 13% 11%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 8% 17% 26% 14% 13%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 24% 27% 20% 11% 12% Singh

Non-NDP 9% 16% 14% 15% 39% Topp

Hostile-NDP 1% 5% 9% 10% 69%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Party cooperation: Uncommitted & 2nd choice NDP voters 41 not sure if QC federal politics should mirror provincial scene

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. It is critically important to ensure there is one federalist party in Quebec that people who oppose Quebec sovereignty can unite behind.

Overall 21% 22% 20% 9% 19%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 33% 14% 19% 9% 20%

Dewar Soft NDP 23% 21% 18% 17% 10%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 13% 27% 26% 7% 8%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 25% 22% 25% 5% 17% Singh

Non-NDP 22% 23% 18% 7% 25% Topp

Hostile-NDP 17% 20% 18% 12% 23%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Quebec vs. ROC: Treating Quebec differently may cost NDP 42 those who are truly uncommitted

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. There are a lot of issues where it makes sense to do things one way in Quebec and another way in the rest of Canada.

Overall 12% 20% 14% 19% 30%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 14% 33% 10% 19% 22%

Dewar Soft NDP 12% 20% 20% 18% 25%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 11% 13% 20% 23% 21%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 14% 31% 11% 25% 17% Singh

Non-NDP 11% 16% 15% 17% 36% Topp

Hostile-NDP 12% 12% 9% 15% 52%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Bilingualism: Majority of Canadians (64%) believe 43 bilingualism is necessary in a Prime Minister

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. Any leader who wants to be taken seriously as a potential Prime Minister must be comfortably bilingual.

Overall 35% 29% 16% 9% 8%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 44% 19% 27% 2% 9%

Dewar Soft NDP 37% 34% 10% 11% 5%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 36% 24% 15% 10% 5%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 49% 30% 8% 8% 5% Singh

Non-NDP 30% 27% 24% 7% 9% Topp

Hostile-NDP 21% 40% 12% 13% 14%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Policy statements: Social justice, foreign affairs 44

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with each statement.

The long gun registry is an important public safety tool and should be brought back. 23% 16% 14% 11% 31%

The federal government needs actively support the rights of women to make their own reproductive 47% 21% 17% 4% 7% choices.

The federal government must take action to ensure women receive equal pay for equal work. 50% 20% 17% 4% 7%

When it comes to international affairs, Canada should stop focusing so much on our military and spend more 29% 23% 15% 13% 17% time and effort on diplomacy and foreign aid.

Canada should only send troops abroad as part of military missions with a UN mandate. 31% 29% 16% 8% 11%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Long gun registry: Firm and 2nd Choice NDP most supportive45 of long gun registry; uncommitted voters opposed

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The long gun registry is an important public safety tool and should be brought back.

Overall 23% 16% 14% 11% 31%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 38% 26% 9% 2% 17%

Dewar Soft NDP 20% 26% 17% 18% 10%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 13% 14% 23% 11% 27%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 39% 19% 8% 15% 16% Singh

Non-NDP 24% 14% 16% 8% 35% Topp

Hostile-NDP 5% 8% 8% 9% 68%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Right to choose: Pro-choice stance supported by majority 46 (65%) of uncommitted voters

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The federal government needs actively support the rights of women to make their own reproductive choices.

Overall 47% 21% 17% 4% 7%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 70% 12% 15% 2%

Dewar Soft NDP 62% 19% 12% 2%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 46% 19% 20% 4% 4%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 59% 22% 10% 4% 3% Singh

Non-NDP 40% 25% 15% 4% 13% Topp

Hostile-NDP 26% 19% 31% 7% 14%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Equal pay for equal work: Progressive Canadians 47 overwhelmingly support gov’t action on equal pay

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The federal government must take action to ensure women receive equal pay for equal work.

Overall 50% 20% 17% 4% 7%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 61% 19% 10% 8% 1%

Dewar Soft NDP 66% 20% 10% 1%1%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 58% 15% 16% 1%1%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 64% 18% 9% 4% 4% Singh

Non-NDP 40% 23% 19% 5% 11% Topp

Hostile-NDP 26% 18% 35% 6% 14%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Diplomacy: Progressive Canadians prefer greater emphasis 48 on diplomacy and foreign aid

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. When it comes to international affairs, Canada should stop focusing so much on our military and spend more time and effort on diplomacy and foreign aid.

Overall 29% 23% 15% 13% 17%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 50% 28% 8% 12% 1%

Dewar Soft NDP 40% 22% 19% 8% 10%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 22% 31% 17% 7% 9%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 44% 28% 13% 4% 8% Singh

Non-NDP 26% 23% 15% 14% 19% Topp

Hostile-NDP 7% 9% 12% 30% 42%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown UN mandates: Requiring UN mandate for military missions 49 popular among Firm and 2nd Choice NDP supporters

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. Canada should only send troops abroad as part of military missions with a UN mandate.

Overall 31% 29% 16% 8% 11%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 59% 32% 6% 3%

Dewar Soft NDP 35% 30% 21% 7% 5%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 25% 33% 17% 7% 4%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 42% 34% 10% 5% 7% Singh

Non-NDP 29% 25% 14% 11% 16% Topp

Hostile-NDP 11% 24% 29% 12% 24%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Policy statements: Jobs, economy 50

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with each statement.

The government should discourage the export of raw natural resources and encourage the use of those 39% 31% 16% 6% 5% resources to create jobs here in Canada.

We need to raise taxes on the rich and big business to ensure they pay their fair share. 42% 24% 12% 9% 11%

The federal government should encourage the growth of unions in Canada. 12% 12% 25% 16% 31%

Every Canadian should have the right to retire and live with dignity. 63% 23% 7%2%

The federal government must take action to close the gap between rich and poor in Canada. 40% 29% 13% 8% 8%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Raw resource exports: Keeping resources in Canada for 51 processing favoured by progressives; uncommitted less sure

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The government should discourage the export of raw natural resources and encourage the use of those resources to create jobs here in Canada.

Overall 39% 31% 16% 6% 5%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 57% 32% 7% 4%

Dewar Soft NDP 49% 36% 10% 3%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 39% 24% 23% 5%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 43% 38% 14% 1% Singh

Non-NDP 36% 31% 20% 5% 5% Topp

Hostile-NDP 24% 21% 15% 21% 17%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Raise taxes on the 1%: Appeals to NDP base and those who 52 lean NDP

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. We need to raise taxes on the rich and big business to ensure they pay their fair share.

Overall 42% 24% 12% 9% 11%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 64% 22% 8% 4% 2%

Dewar Soft NDP 52% 32% 11% 4%1%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 44% 25% 16% 3% 6%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 54% 17% 12% 8% 7% Singh

Non-NDP 35% 28% 11% 9% 14% Topp

Hostile-NDP 18% 14% 14% 25% 29%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Unions: Uncommitted voters not sure (36% neither agree 53 nor disagree) if gov’t should encourage the growth of unions

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The federal government should encourage the growth of unions in Canada.

Overall 12% 12% 25% 16% 31%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 30% 20% 29% 6% 14%

Dewar Soft NDP 19% 24% 27% 19% 8%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 9% 7% 36% 19% 19%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 15% 19% 24% 13% 24% Singh

Non-NDP 8% 9% 25% 17% 38% Topp

Hostile-NDP 2% 13% 18% 65%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Dignity as a right: Strongest support among progressives, 54 but all Canadians in general agreement

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. Every Canadian should have the right to retire and live with dignity

Overall 63% 23% 7% 2%3%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 80% 10% 1%3% 6%

Dewar Soft NDP 78% 13% 7%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 65% 23% 6% 0%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 73% 17% 6% 1% Singh

Non-NDP 56% 28% 8% 3%2% Topp

Hostile-NDP 40% 38% 9% 4% 10%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Mind the gap: Strong majority of all progressives support 55 federal gov’t action to close the gap between rich and poor

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The federal government must take action to close the gap between rich and poor in Canada.

Overall 40% 29% 13% 8% 8%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 79% 7% 13%

Dewar Soft NDP 55% 29% 13% 2%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 40% 35% 15% 2%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 59% 22% 6% 7% 5% Singh

Non-NDP 29% 37% 12% 8% 12% Topp

Hostile-NDP 6% 24% 20% 27% 22%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown NDP leadership policy statements 56

Q Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with each statement.

The federal funding for post secondary education should be targeted towards reducing tuition fees for 30% 31% 16% 12% 8% students.

The government should stop offering tax breaks and incentives to subsidize development of the oil sands. 34% 18% 18% 14% 11%

Canada should introduce a cap and trade system for greenhouse gases so that the price of products such 18% 26% 22% 10% 17% as oil includes the environmental damage it creates.

It is wrong to build an oil pipeline through British Columbia. 22% 12% 20% 16% 22%

Canada should play a leading and proactive international role on environmental issues. 39% 30% 17% 7% 5%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Federal tuition cuts a tent-expander: Strongest support 57 among those leaning NDP

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The federal funding for post secondary education should be targeted towards reducing tuition fees for students.

Overall 30% 31% 16% 12% 8%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 43% 16% 22% 16% 1%

Dewar Soft NDP 47% 31% 16% 4%1%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 39% 28% 19% 3%2%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 35% 35% 14% 9% 5% Singh

Non-NDP 20% 32% 17% 15% 12% Topp

Hostile-NDP 14% 35% 11% 20% 20%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Oil sands tax breaks: Seven-in-ten (71%) in NDP base 58 strongly oppose government subsidies and incentives

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. The government should stop offering tax breaks and incentives to subsidize development of the oil sands.

Overall 34% 18% 18% 14% 11%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 71% 10% 9% 6% 2%

Dewar Soft NDP 41% 24% 17% 9% 3%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 26% 25% 17% 12% 4%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 38% 20% 18% 14% 4% Singh

Non-NDP 32% 15% 18% 10% 16% Topp

Hostile-NDP 12% 16% 20% 28% 24%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Cap & trade: Majority of firm (67%), soft (59%) and 2nd 59 choice (58%) NDP supporters in favour

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. Canada should introduce a cap and trade system for greenhouse gases so that the price of products such as oil includes the environmental damage it creates.

Overall 18% 26% 22% 10% 17%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 27% 30% 29% 4% 7%

Dewar Soft NDP 22% 37% 24% 8% 3%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 12% 23% 32% 5% 14%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 24% 34% 18% 12% 7% Singh

Non-NDP 21% 19% 24% 8% 21% Topp

Hostile-NDP 3% 21% 13% 17% 41%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown BC Pipeline: One-third (30%) of 2nd Choice NDP voters 60 opposed to Northern Gateway pipeline

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. It is wrong to build an oil pipeline through British Columbia.

Overall 22% 12% 20% 16% 22%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 50% 24% 12% 5% 4%

Dewar Soft NDP 21% 17% 33% 17% 3%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 16% 10% 28% 12% 14%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 30% 14% 19% 15% 16% Singh

Non-NDP 18% 10% 20% 16% 27% Topp

Hostile-NDP 13% 4% 7% 23% 52%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown Environmentalism: NDP keeps or attracts vote by calling for 61 Canada to play a leading role on environmental issues

Below are some of the ideas and statements that have been raised in the NDP leadership campaign. Please indicate if you agree or Q disagree with each statement. Canada should play a leading and proactive international role on environmental issues.

Overall 39% 30% 17% 7% 5%

Ashton

Cullen Firm NDP 66% 22% 11% 2%

Dewar Soft NDP 51% 30% 15% 2%1%

Mulcair Truly uncommitted 30% 34% 15% 10% 1%

Nash 2nd Choice NDP 61% 19% 17% 1%2% Singh

Non-NDP 28% 40% 16% 6% 7% Topp

Hostile-NDP 20% 20% 24% 23% 12%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t Know / Refused’ not shown 62 Demographics: Respondent Profile Gender Language 76%

= 48% = 52%

24%

English French

Age Household Income

27% 32% 20% 16% 21% 13% 13% 19% 11% 15% 13%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65+ <$40k $40-60k $60-80k $80k+ Prefer not to say Prefer not to say (10%) not shown Research-based strategic advice. Public Affairs • Corporate Communications • Fundraising

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