March 2021 Summary Update

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March 2021 Summary Update Edinburgh and South East Regional Claimant Count March 2021 Summary Update Between February 2020 and March Claimant Count Numbers 2021: Scottish Claimant Count increased 250000 by 86% Edinburgh Claimant Count 200000 increased by 161% 150000 City Region Claimant Count increased by 106% 100000 Between January and February 2021 50000 there had been an increase in the 0 claimant count, which is likely to be Feb-2020 Mar-2021 linked into the trading restrictions imposed at the start of the year. Edinburgh City Region Scotland What we can see in the claimant count data from March, is that whilst there has been a continued increase it hasn’t been as substantial as the January to February increase. Area February 2020 February 2021 March 2021 % Change Count Rate Count Rate Count Rate Feb 20- Feb 21 - Mar 21 Mar 21 City of Edinburgh 7,105 1.9 18,415 5.0 18,525 5.1 160.7 0.6 East Lothian 1,765 2.7 3,480 5.3 3,520 5.4 99.4 1.1 Fife 8,765 3.8 14,735 6.4 14,880 6.4 69.8 1.0 Midlothian 1,470 2.6 3,070 5.4 3,095 5.4 110.5 0.8 Scottish Borders 1,860 2.7 3,645 5.4 3,660 5.4 96.8 0.4 West Lothian 3,425 2.9 6,385 5.4 6,570 5.6 91.8 2.9 Scotland 114,605 3.3 212,200 6.1 213,205 6.1 86.0 0.5 Source: NOMIS 20/04/2021 Gender split Overall, across the region, the proportion of female claimants is much the same in March 2021 as it was in February 2020 at around 39% of claimants. From the March 2021 data we can see that there are differences across the region with 43% of claimants in East Lothian being female through to 38% of claimants in Fife and Edinburgh. Age Profile Across the City Region as a whole, the claimant count for the 16-24 year old age group has risen by 108% between February 2020 and March 2021. However, there are differences depending on which LA you wish to look at as shown in the chart below. When we look at the 71 wards that make up the city region, we can see that the wards where there has been the greatest proportional 1 change in terms of the number of 16-24 year old claimants also % Change in the number of 16-24 year old tend to be wards where there claimants Between February 2020 and March are fewer claimants overall, 2021 both historically and currently. 200% For example, North Berwick 150% Coastal in East Lothian has seen the proportion of 16-24 year 100% olds increase by 8 percentage 50% points since February 2020, yet it ‘only’ has 270 claimants in 0% City of East Fife Midlothian Scottish West total in March 2021- the lowest Edinburgh Lothian Borders Lothian of all East Lothian wards. Musselburgh which had 915 claimants in March 2021 saw the proportion of 16-24 year olds increase by 1 percentage point. This seems to be similar across the City Region. In Edinburgh for example Morningside has seen the proportion of 16-24 year old claimants increase by 10 percentage points since February 2020 but with 505 claimants in total is still one of the wards in the city recording fewer claimants than elsewhere. Across the region participation levels in March 2021 for 16-17 year olds, based on SDS data, cvaries from 96.1% through to 93.4% and the majority of Local Authorities in the region are above the Scottish Average. However, localities within Local Authorities can be far lower than the average and a participation level of 75.8% was recorded in one local area in the City Region. Universal Credit Across the region there has been % Change in the UC Claimant Count a 99% increase in the number of Feb 2020-Feb 2021 people claiming Universal Credit since February 2020 and West Lothian between February 2020 and March 2021 the region has seen Scottish Borders a 121% increase in the number of individuals who are in work Midlothian and claiming Universal Credit. Fife Looking at the region as a whole East Lothian we can see that 49% of those claiming Universal Credit and not CEC- in employment in February 2021 had not been claiming this 0 50 100 150 200 250 benefit before the pandemic. Total In employment Not in employment We can see that a quarter of all claimants across the region had been claiming UC for between 6 and 12 months in February 2020. The most recent figures suggest that this has now moved up to a third of all claims, or over 40,000 people across the region had been claiming for between 6 and 12 months. 2 Edinburgh and South East Regional Claimant Count March 2021 Full Update The Fraser of Allander Institute published a Scottish Economy update on the 6th April. This indicated that the number of job vacancies had increased by 6.1% since they last looked at the data in February and the share of businesses with staff on Furlough had fallen by 3.8% between 8th March 2021 and the 21st March 2021. However, certain sectors are still not trading anywhere near where they would normally be. For example, Accommodation and Food Services is trading at around 30% of capacity according to the report.1 This provides some context for what follows in the rest of this report. Overall Claimant Count The data published on the 20th April indicates that the claimant count across the UK is still far higher than it was at the start of the pandemic- 114% higher for the UK and 86% higher for Scotland. Table 1: National Claimant Count Picture Area February 2020 February 2021 March 2021 % Change Count Rate Count Rate Count Rate Feb 20- Feb 21- Mar 21 Mar 21 Northern Ireland 29,910 2.5 57,655 4.9 57,590 4.9 93 -0.1 Scotland 114,605 3.3 212,200 6.1 213,205 6.1 86 0.5 United Kingdom 1,255,770 3.0 2,678,280 6.4 2,692,940 6.5 114 0.5 Wales 60,375 3.1 112,990 5.9 112,915 5.9 87 -0.1 East 89,890 2.4 210,925 5.6 211,940 5.6 136 0.5 East Midlands 80,915 2.7 165,630 5.5 166,510 5.6 106 0.5 London 184,765 3.1 506,800 8.4 512,990 8.5 178% 1.2 North East 75,560 4.6 119,940 7.2 119,905 7.2 59 0.0 North West 167,055 3.7 323,005 7.1 324,280 7.1 94 0.4 South East 119,620 2.1 300,435 5.3 301,675 5.4 152 0.4 South West 75,595 2.2 171,590 5.1 172,260 5.1 128 0.4 West Midlands 141,095 3.9 269,985 7.4 271,130 7.4 92 0.4 Yorkshire and 116,390 3.4 227,120 6.6 228,535 6.7 96 0.6 The Humber Source: NOMIS 20/04/2021 In the last edition of this update, we could see that the month to month change between January and February was higher than what we had seen in previous months, reflected by an increase in the number of claimants of around 5 or 6% across the UK. The difference between the February and March figures are far less significant and we can see that, except for London, all regions and nations of UK recorded month to month increases of around 0.5%. In Northern Ireland and Wales, the claimant count has fallen between February and March. This could suggest that the January to 1 https://fraserofallander.org/latest-data-on-the-scottish-economy-update-6th-april-2021/ 3 February increase may have been a direct impact of the lockdown with businesses deciding that the economic situation was not strong enough to continue and as a result let staff go. The BICS survey from ONS indicates that in December 84% of Businesses were trading, in January this had fallen to 71%.2 Table 2 below looks at the position across Scotland based on the claimant count data published on the NOMIS site. From this table we can see that between February 2020 and March 2021, Edinburgh has recorded the largest percentage increase in claimant count in Scotland which was 161% higher in March 2021 compared to February 2020. By comparison Inverclyde had recorded the lowest percentage increase, 35% increase, between the same dates. In the City Region whilst Edinburgh has the largest percentage increase, Fife had the lowest at just under 70%. Table 2: Claimant Count - Scottish LAs Area February 2020 February 2021 March 2021 % Change Count Rate Count Rate Count Rate Feb 20- Feb 21 - Mar 21 Mar 21 Aberdeen City 4,150 2.6 9,725 6.2 9,720 6.2 134.2 -0.1 Aberdeenshire 2,975 1.8 6,655 4.1 6,605 4.1 122.0 -0.8 Angus 2,040 2.9 3,795 5.5 3,770 5.4 84.8 -0.7 Argyll and Bute 1,530 3.0 2,910 5.7 2,890 5.7 88.9 -0.7 City of Edinburgh 7,105 1.9 18,415 5.0 18,525 5.1 160.7 0.6 Clackmannanshire 1,390 4.3 2,095 6.5 2,090 6.5 50.4 -0.2 Dumfries and 2,950 3.4 4,700 5.4 4,700 5.4 59.3 0.0 Galloway Dundee City 4,530 4.6 7,015 7.1 6,915 7.0 52.6 -1.4 East Ayrshire 3,685 4.8 5,760 7.6 5,715 7.5 55.1 -0.8 E Dunbartonshire 1,230 1.9 2,560 4.0 2,560 4.0 108.1 0.0 East Lothian 1,765 2.7 3,480 5.3 3,520 5.4 99.4 1.1 East Renfrewshire 950 1.7 2,135 3.8 2,145 3.8 125.8 0.5 Falkirk 3,300 3.2 5,945 5.8 6,075 5.9 84.1 2.2 Fife 8,765 3.8 14,735 6.4 14,880 6.4 69.8 1.0 Glasgow City 20,055 4.5 36,405 8.1 36,815 8.2 83.6 1.1 Highland 3,715 2.6 7,765 5.4 7,810 5.4 110.2 0.6 Inverclyde 2,255 4.6 2,995 6.2 3,045 6.3 35.0 1.7 Midlothian 1,470 2.6 3,070 5.4 3,095 5.4 110.5 0.8 Moray 1,550 2.6 3,040 5.2 3,030 5.1 95.5 -0.3 Na h-Eileanan Siar 465 3.0 770 4.9 780 5.0 67.7 1.3 North Ayrshire 4,600 5.6 6,800 8.3 6,795 8.3 47.7 -0.1 North Lanarkshire 8,230 3.7 14,505 6.6 14,530 6.6 76.5 0.2 Orkney Islands 195 1.4 375 2.8 385 2.9 97.4 2.7 Perth and Kinross 1,865 2.0 4,150 4.5 4,200 4.6 125.2 1.2 Renfrewshire 4,025 3.5 7,190 6.3 7,285 6.3 81.0 1.3 Scottish Borders 1,860 2.7 3,645 5.4 3,660 5.4 96.8 0.4 Shetland Islands 265 1.9 470 3.3 450 3.2 69.8 -4.3 South Ayrshire 2,790 4.2 4,690 7.1 4,635 7.0 66.1 -1.2 South Lanarkshire 7,015 3.5 12,640 6.3 12,730 6.3 81.5 0.7 2 Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 8 April 2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/businessinsightsandimpactont heukeconomy/8april2021 4 Scottish Borders 1,540 2.5 2,775 4.6 2,765 4.6 79.5 -0.4 W Dunbartonshire 2,930 5.2 4,605 8.1 4,525 8.0 54.4 -1.7 West Lothian 3,425 2.9 6,385 5.4 6,570 5.6 91.8 2.9 Scotland 114,605 3.3 212,200 6.1 213,205 6.1 86.0 0.5 Source: NOMIS 20/04/2021 The data in Table 2 appears to suggest that the greatest rate of increase in the claimant count has been in the areas that had the lowest number of claimants prior to the pandemic, whilst areas with higher claimant count rates in February 2020 appear to have recorded a less dramatic increase.
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