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Determinants of Rail Capacity on a Capacity- Constrained Urban Mixed-Operation Rail Corridor in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

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Determinants of Rail Capacity on a Capacity- Constrained Urban Mixed-Operation Rail Corridor in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area HEC MONTRÈAL Determinants of rail capacity on a capacity- constrained urban mixed-operation rail corridor in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area BY Johannes Urbanski 11194656 GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT THESIS DIRECTOR Jacques Roy HEC MONTRÈAL A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF REQUIREMENTS FOR A MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ADMINISTRATION February 2019 © Johannes Urbanski, 2019 i Résumé Le but de ce mémoire de maîtrise est d’évaluer les facteurs qui influencent la capacité des corridors ferroviaires en milieu urbain qui font face à une croissance soutenue de la demande en passagers et en transport de marchandises. Également, l’appréciation des valeurs foncières restreint la croissance de la capacité d’une ligne et crée une pression économique pour intensifier l’utilisation des voies existantes plutôt que d’en bâtir de nouvelles. Ainsi, ce mémoire tente d’explorer comment la planification des horaires des trains de passagers influence la capacité générale d’une ligne et la qualité de ces horaires. Ce mémoire fait une étude de cas en modélisant le corridor Toronto-Kitchener et calcule les temps de déplacement et de blocage des voies selon deux genres de systèmes de signalisation. Les horaires de plusieurs catégories de trains de passagers sont planifiés selon cinq stratégies différentes, alors que la capacité est déterminée en ajoutant des trains de marchandises dans les créneaux horaire disponibles. Les résultats suggèrent que la périodicité d’un horaire a un impact positif important sur la capacité d’une ligne, alors que la présence d’une symétrie d’horaire et de correspondances coordonnés semblent avoir un impact légèrement négatif. Toutefois, les gains majeurs de capacité sont obtenus en adoptant un système moderne de signalisation. Une prochaine étude pourrait tenter d’isoler l’effet des différentes caractéristiques d’un horaire en augmentant considérablement le nombre de scénarios d’horaire calculés. Mots clés : Transport ferroviaire, capacité ferroviaire, corridors ferroviaires urbains, opérations partagées, stratégies de planification d’horaire, planification tactique, horaire périodique, horaire symétrique iii Abstract The purpose of this master thesis is to investigate the factors determining train capacity on urban rail corridors facing sustained growth in demand for passenger and freight transportation services. At the same time, rising property prices constrain the growth of track capacity and create economic pressure to increase the utilisation of the existing tracks over building new ones. Therefore, this thesis aims to explore how the scheduling of passenger trains affects overall train capacity and timetable quality. This thesis relies on modelling the Toronto-Kitchener corridor as case study and calculates travel and blocking times based on two different signalling system classes. Various categories of passenger trains are scheduled according to five different timetable strategies, while the capacity is determined by adding freight train slots into any remaining gaps in the schedule. The results suggest that timetable periodicity has a strong positive effect on train capacity, while the presence of timetable symmetry and of coordinated transfers appear to have a slightly negative effect. However, by far the largest capacity gains can be achieved by adopting a modern signalling system with very short block lengths. Future research should aim at isolating the effect of the various timetable characteristics by drastically increasing the number of timetable scenarios calculated. Keywords: Railway transportation, railway capacity, urban rail corridors, mixed operations, timetable strategies, tactical planning, timetable periodicity, timetable symmetry iv Table of Contents Résumé .......................................................................................................................................... iii Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... v List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ x List of abbreviations and acronyms .............................................................................................. xi Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... xiii Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................... xiv 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Topic and Context .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1. Topic ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2. Context ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. The Toronto-Kitchener corridor ..................................................................................... 2 1.3. Problem .......................................................................................................................... 9 1.3.1. Independent variables .......................................................................................... 10 1.3.2. Dependent variables ............................................................................................. 10 1.3.3. Controlling variables ............................................................................................ 10 1.4. Purpose ......................................................................................................................... 11 1.5. Structure ....................................................................................................................... 12 2. Data for the Toronto-Kitchener corridor ........................................................................ 13 2.1. Timetables .................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.1. Current timetables ................................................................................................ 13 2.1.2. Service expansion plans ....................................................................................... 15 2.2. Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 18 2.2.1. Current track layout ............................................................................................. 18 2.2.2. Infrastructure expansion plans ............................................................................. 21 3. Literature Review .............................................................................................................. 24 3.1. Railway Capacity ......................................................................................................... 24 3.2. Railway track allocation (scheduling) .......................................................................... 28 3.3. Timetable quality and attractiveness ............................................................................ 33 3.4. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 38 4. Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 39 v 4.1. Overview ...................................................................................................................... 39 4.2. Timetable planning ...................................................................................................... 40 4.3. Timetable modelling .................................................................................................... 42 5. Conceptualisation ............................................................................................................... 46 5.1. Rail infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 46 5.2. Signalling and train control systems ............................................................................ 55 5.3. Selection of parameters ................................................................................................ 57 5.4. Selection of timetable strategies .................................................................................. 63 5.5. Dividing the Corridor into segments ............................................................................ 63 5.6. Assumed signal locations ............................................................................................. 65 5.7. Assumed speed limits .................................................................................................. 67 5.7.1. Line speed limits .................................................................................................. 67 5.7.2. Local speed limits
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