Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times

Growth under Extractive Institutions? Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times

LETICIA ARROYO ABAD AND JAN LUITEN VAN ZANDEN

This article presents new estimations of per capita GDP in colonial times for the WZRSLOODUVRIWKH6SDQLVKHPSLUH0H[LFRDQG3HUX:H¿QGG\QDPLFHFRQRPLHV DV HYLGHQFHG E\ LQFUHDVLQJ UHDO ZDJHV XUEDQL]DWLRQ DQG VLOYHU PLQLQJ 7KHLU JURZWK WUDMHFWRULHV DUH VXFK WKDW ERWK UHJLRQV UHGXFHG WKH JDSZLWK UHVSHFW WR 6SDLQ 0H[LFR HYHQ DFKLHYHG SDULW\ DW WLPHV :KLOH H[SHULHQFLQJ VZLQJV LQ JURZWKWKHQRWDEOHWXUQLQJSRLQWLVLQVDVERWWOHQHFNVLQSURGXFWLRQDQG ODWHUWKHLQGHSHQGHQFHZDUVUHGXFHGHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\2XUUHVXOWVTXHVWLRQWKH notion that colonial institutions impoverished Latin America.

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1182 Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times

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FIGURE 4 85%$1,=$7,210$,1&,7,(6 Sources: See the text.

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1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 Decade

Mexico Peru Spain England

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TABLE 2 $118$/,=('*52:7+5$7(6%<3(5,2' ,13(5&(17 Period Mexico Peru Spain (QJODQG ± n.a. ± a ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± Notes: n.a.: not available. a± Sources0H[LFRDQG3HUXVHHWH[W6SDLQEDVHGRQÈOYDUH]1RJDODQG3UDGRVGHOD(VFRVXUD (QJODQGEDVHGRQ%URDGEHUU\HWDO

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TABLE 3 5($/:$*(625:(/)$5(5$7,26)2563$,10(;,&2%2/,9,$$1'3(58 ,1180%(52)%$5(%21(6%$6.(76 ± ± ± ± ± Madrid 1.81 Mexico 3RWRVt $UHTXLSD &X]FR a 1.18 a2QO\WR Sources/DWLQ$PHULFD$UUR\R$EDGHWDO 6SDLQ$OOHQ

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1.8

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0.8 Spain Peru 0.6 Annual GDP growth (%) Annual GDP 0.4 India

0.2

0.0 China

-0.2 0.1 1 10 100 1000

Books per million inhabitants

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12 )RU H[DPSOH LQ FRORQLDO 3DUDJXD\ D PRUH HJDOLWDULDQ HQFRPLHQGD V\VWHP SHUVLVWHG WKURXJKRXWFRORQLDOUXOH $UUR\R$EDGDQG/XGORZ )RUH[DPSOH$UJHQWLQDDQG9HQH]XHODE\ODWHHLJKWHHQWKFHQWXU\KDGXUEDQL]DWLRQUDWHVRI DURXQGSHUFHQW /DWWHV&KHQDQG3LFRXHW 7KH*'3SHUFDSLWDHVWLPDWLRQVFRUUHVSRQGWRWKH\HDU'DWDIRU$UJHQWLQD&KLOH &RORPELDDQG8UXJXD\DUHGUDZQIURP%ROWDQGYDQ=DQGHQ 0H[LFR¶VSHUKHDG*'3LV from our own estimates. Arroyo Abad and van Zanden Appendix A: Sensitivity Analysis and Other Robustness Checks

$VH[SODLQHGLQWKHWH[WZHXVHGDSUHIHUUHGVHWRIHVWLPDWHVRILQFRPHDQGSULFH HODVWLFLWLHVZLWKLQPLGUDQJHLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHDVLQ0DODQLPD :HVLPXODWHGWKH PRGHODOVRZLWKWKHRWKHUVHWVRIHVWLPDWHV7KH$OOHQHVWLPDWHVRIHODVWLFLWLHV\LHOGD WRWDOJURZWKRI*'3SHUFDSLWDLQ3HUXEHWZHHQDQGRISHUFHQWWKH 0DODQLPD HODVWLFLWLHVUHVXOWLQSHUFHQWJURZWKDQGWKHÈOYDUH]1RJDODQG 3UDGRVGHOD(VFRVXUD HODVWLFLWLHVLPSO\SHUFHQWJURZWK&RQVLVWHQWZLWK ÈOYDUH]1RJDODQG3UDGRVGHOD(VFRVXUD ¶V¿QGLQJVWKHVHUHVXOWVFRQ¿UPWKH OLPLWHGQHWHIIHFWRISDUWLFXODUVHWRISDUDPHWHUV:H¿QDOO\WHVWHGWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIRXU UHVXOWVXVLQJRWKHUZHLJKWVIRUWKHVHFWRUVLQWKHSHULRGEHIRUHZHDVVXPHGLQWKLV DOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRWKDWWKHVKDUHRIDJULFXOWXUHZDVSHUFHQW LQVWHDGRISHUFHQW RIPLQLQJSHUFHQWDQGRIWKHRWKHULQGXVWULHVSHUFHQW)RU3HUXWKHGLIIHUHQFHV ZHUHWLQ\ OHVVWKDQSHUFHQWRQDYHUDJH IRU0H[LFRWKH\ZHUHVRPHZKDWODUJHUEXW VWLOOUDWKHUVPDOO DWPRVWSHUFHQW VHH$SSHQGL[)LJXUH *LYHQWKDWZHKDYHUHOLDEOHHVWLPDWHVRIVLOYHUPLQLQJZHFKRVHWRHVWLPDWH*'3 ZLWKDGH¿QHGPLQLQJVHFWRU)RUUREXVWQHVVFKHFNVZHSUHVHQWKHUHDQHVWLPDWHRI *'3 SHU FDSLWD XVLQJ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFK WKDW LV ZLWKRXW PLQLQJ $V VKRZQ LQ$SSHQGL[)LJXUHVDQGRXUSUHIHUUHGHVWLPDWHLVWKHPRVWFRQVHUYDWLYHRIWKH VFHQDULRVSUHVHQWHG7KHFRUUHODWLRQRIWKHVHVHULHVUDQJHIURPWR 900 800 700 600 500 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 Decade

Own estimation High elasticity Low elasticity

APPENDIX FIGURE 1 3(589,$13(5&$3,7$*'3(67,0$7(6:,7+',))(5(17(/$67,&,7,(6 ,1*($5<.+$0,6'2//$56 Sources: See Appendix. Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times 900 800 700 600 500 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 decade

full demand without silver production full demand with silver simple demand without silver production simple demand with silver

APPENDIX FIGURE 2 3(58¶6*'33(5&$3,7$,1&/8',1*$1'(;&/8',1*6,/9(5287387 ,17+((67,0$7,21$1'86,1*',))(5(17'(0$1'63(&,),&$7,216 ,1*($5<.+$0,6'2//$56 Sources: See Appendix. 100 90 80 70 60

1650 1700 1750 1800 Decade

Agricultural output Tithes

APPENDIX FIGURE 3 3(589,$1$*5,&8/785$/287387$1'7,7+(6± Notes7LWKHVLQFOXGH7UXMLOOR/LPD&X]FR$UHTXLSDDQG/D3D] Sources $JULFXOWXUDO RXWSXW VHH WH[W 7LWKHV 1HZODQG DQG &RDWVZRUWK 'HÀDWRU 6HPLQDULRGH0DU]L Arroyo Abad and van Zanden 1000 800 600 400

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 decade

constant variable

APPENDIX FIGURE 4 0(;,&$1*'33(5&$3,7$86,1*',))(5(176(&725:(,*+76 ,1*($5<.+$0,6'2//$56 Sources: See Appendix. 1000 800 600 400

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 decade

without silver with silver

APPENDIX FIGURE 5 0(;,&2¶6*'33(5&$3,7$,1&/8',1*$1'(;&/8',1*6,/9(5287387 ,17+((67,0$7,21,1*($5<.+$0,6'2//$56 Sources: See Appendix. Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times

APPENDIX TABLE 1 85%$1,=$7,215$7(6)250(;,&2±,13(5&(17 $YHUDJH 1.8 Low population 2.2 +LJKSRSXODWLRQ Sources$YHUDJHVHHWH[W/RZ$JXLUUH%HOWUiQ =DPEDUGLQR &RRNDQG%RUDK DQG:KLWPRUH +LJK&RRNDQG%RUDK &RRNDQG6LPSVRQ

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Appendix B: Notes on Latin American Urbanization Data

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