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Pervasive Arctic Lead Pollution Suggests Substantial Growth in Medieval Silver Production Modulated by Plague, Climate, and Conflict

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Pervasive Arctic Lead Pollution Suggests Substantial Growth in Medieval Silver Production Modulated by Plague, Climate, and Conflict Pervasive Arctic lead pollution suggests substantial growth in medieval silver production modulated by plague, climate, and conflict Joseph R. McConnella,1, Nathan J. Chellmana, Andrew I. Wilsonb,c, Andreas Stohld, Monica M. Arienzoa, Sabine Eckhardtd, Diedrich Fritzschee, Sepp Kipfstuhlf, Thomas Opele, Philip F. Placeg, and Jørgen Peder Steffensenh aDivision of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512; bFaculty of Classics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3LU, United Kingdom; cInstitute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2PG, United Kingdom; dDepartment of Atmospheric and Climate Research, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, N-2027 Kjeller, Norway; ePolar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; fGlaciology, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany; gEarth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627; and hCentre for Ice and Climate, University of Copenhagen, DK-1017 Copenhagen, Denmark Edited by Eric W. Wolff, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and accepted by Editorial Board Member A. R. Ravishankara June 13, 2019 (received for review March 15, 2019) Lead pollution in Arctic ice reflects large-scale historical changes in at the apogee of the Roman Empire indicated substantial economic midlatitude industrial activities such as ancient lead/silver pro- growth during the latter period. Particularly striking were pro- duction and recent fossil fuel burning. Here we used measure- nounced and lasting declines during the second-century Antonine ments in a broad array of 13 accurately dated ice cores from Plague and third-century Plague of Cyprian, suggesting low societal Greenland and Severnaya Zemlya to document spatial and tem- resilience to pestilence. Here we used high-depth–resolution poral changes in Arctic lead pollution from 200 BCE to 2010 CE, measurements (Fig. 1) in an array of accurately dated ice cores with interpretation focused on 500 to 2010 CE. Atmospheric located between longitudes 56°W and 95°E and spanning nearly transport modeling indicates that Arctic lead pollution was half the Arctic (SI Appendix, Fig. S1) to extend analysis of Arctic SCIENCES primarily from European emissions before the 19th-century In- lead pollution and European economic history to include the ECONOMIC dustrial Revolution. Temporal variability was surprisingly similar Middle Ages, Early Modern Period, and Modern Period. Using across the large swath of the Arctic represented by the array, with state-of-the-art atmospheric transport and deposition modeling 250- to 300-fold increases in lead pollution observed from the Early to determine probable lead pollution provenance, as well as com- Middle Ages to the 1970s industrial peak. Superimposed on these parisons to historical information, including economic proxies such exponential changes were pronounced, multiannual to multidecadal as European grain prices (11) and tree fellings from historical variations, marked by increases coincident with exploitation of new construction timber (12), we evaluated Arctic pollution growth mining regions, improved technologies, and periods of economic rates and possible drivers of observed annual to centennial changes SCIENCES prosperity; and decreases coincident with climate disruptions, in pollution such as climate variations, major wars, and plagues, as ENVIRONMENTAL famines, major wars, and plagues. Results suggest substantial overall well as exploitation and exhaustion of new mining areas. growth in lead/silver mining and smelting emissions—and so silver We measured a range of elements and chemical species, in- production—from the Early through High Middle Ages, particularly cluding lead and the mineral dust indicator cerium, in a broad in northern Europe, with lower growth during the Late Middle Ages into the Early Modern Period. Near the end of the second plague Significance pandemic (1348 to ∼1700 CE), lead pollution increased sharply through the Industrial Revolution. North American and European pollution abatement policies have reduced Arctic lead pollution Detailed lead pollution measurements in an array of 13 ice cores by >80% since the 1970s, but recent levels remain ∼60-fold higher spanning nearly half the Arctic showed surprisingly similar tem- than at the start of the Middle Ages. poral variability during the past 2 millennia until the Industrial Revolution. Lead pollution increased by 250- to 300-fold from the Early Middle Ages to the 1970s industrial peak, reflecting large- ice core | lead pollution | Arctic | plague | Middle Ages scale emissions changes from ancient European silver production, – – recent fossil fuel burning, and other industrial activities. Pro- ead measured in Arctic (1 6) and Alpine (7 9) ice cores has nounced decadal-scale increases coincided with exploitation of Lbeen used to document changes in atmospheric lead pollution new mining districts, technology development, and periods of from ancient European mining and smelting as well as recent economic prosperity, while decreases coincided with climate dis- fossil fuel combustion and other industrial activities, and to infer ruptions, famines, major wars, and plagues. Despite midlatitude historical and economic implications. Close linkages to ancient pollution abatement policies that reduced Arctic lead pollution economies are expected, in part, because silver used in coinage > denarius by 80% since the 1970s, recent levels remain 60-fold higher than such as the Roman largely derived from lead-rich galena at the start of the Middle Ages. ores and because lead was used extensively in the metallurgical extraction of silver (10). In one recent study (2), pollution de- Author contributions: J.R.M. designed research; J.R.M., N.J.C., A.S., M.M.A., S.E., D.F., S.K., position measured in a central Greenland ice core was used to T.O., P.F.P., and J.P.S. performed research; J.R.M., N.J.C., A.I.W., and A.S. analyzed data; reconstruct annual European lead emissions from ancient min- and J.R.M., N.J.C., A.I.W., and A.S. wrote the paper. ing and smelting activities from 1000 BCE to 800 CE and doc- The authors declare no conflict of interest. ument parallel declines in Greenland lead pollution and the This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. E.W.W. is a guest editor invited by the silver content of Roman denarii during the second and third Editorial Board. centuries. This record showed that increases in lead emissions Published under the PNAS license. during antiquity were associated closely with periods of pros- 1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected]. perity, and decreases were associated with periods of economic This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10. disruption. Low levels, especially during the last decades of the 1073/pnas.1904515116/-/DCSupplemental. Roman Republic, and 4-fold higher levels during the Pax Romana www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1904515116 PNAS Latest Articles | 1of6 Downloaded by guest on September 23, 2021 Fig. 1. Annual lead pollution deposition during the past 2,200 y documented in an array of ice cores spanning nearly half the Arctic, including 12 ice cores from Greenland and 1 from Severnaya Zemlya in the Russian Arctic (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). (A) Median fil- tered (11-y) AN record from Severnaya Zemlya and Greenland regional composite records (records and colors same as in B–G) on the same logarithmic scale. (B–F) Individual Greenland regional composites (an- nual and 11-y median filtered values shown with thin and thick lines, respectively). (G) AN record from Severnaya Zemlya. The individual Greenland ice core records (SI Appendix, Fig. S1 and Table S1) were grouped by location and regional records of annual concentration (SI Appendix, Fig. S2), flux, and en- richment (SI Appendix, Fig. S3) were computed as the geometric mean of the individual ice core re- cords. The ACT2 (4) and the 200 BCE to 800 CE part of the NGRIP2 (2) record have been published pre- viously (SI Appendix, Table S1). Measurements in the few previously reported Arctic lead measurements (3–5), all confined to the central region of the Greenland ice sheet, are consistent with the records presented here (SI Appendix, Fig. S2). Because accu- rate dating of ice core records is critical for mean- ingful historical interpretation, all cores were volcanically synchronized to an accurately dated Arctic refer- ence record (Materials and Methods). Uncertainties in the individual core chronologies were estimated to be <2 y (2) for the Greenland records and <5yfor the AN core (Materials and Methods). Widespread pollution increased more than 250-fold from the Early Middle Ages to 1970s, with sharp, often sustained increases coincident with periods of polit- ical stability (e.g., early Carolingian Empire) and ex- ploitation of new mining regions, and decreases coincident with plagues (e.g., Black Death, second plague pandemic from 1348 to ∼1700 CE; second cholera pandemic from 1829 to 1837 CE; third chol- era pandemic from 1846 to 1860 CE), climate (e.g., Little Ice Age), major wars, and other externalities. Similar variability throughout the Arctic array indi- cates large-scale, common changes in lead emissions. array of 13 Arctic ice cores with the continuous ice core analytical equivalent to an average growth rate in Arctic lead pollution of system at the Desert Research Institute
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