The Obama Doctrine The U.S. president talks through his hardest decisions about America’s role in the world. By Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic April 2016

© 2016 The Atlantic Media Co., as first published in The Atlantic Magazine. All rights reserved. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency

riday, August 30, 2013, the day the The president believes that Churchillian rhetoric feckless Barack Obama brought to a and, more to the point, Churchillian habits of Fpremature end America’s reign as the thought, helped bring his predecessor, George world’s sole indispensable superpower—or, W. Bush, to ruinous war in Iraq. Obama entered alternatively, the day the sagacious Barack the White House bent on getting out of Iraq and The president Obama peered into the Middle Eastern abyss Afghanistan; he was not seeking new dragons to believes that and stepped back from the consuming void— slay. And he was particularly mindful of Churchillian began with a thundering speech given on promising victory in conflicts he believed to be rhetoric and, Obama’s behalf by his secretary of state, John unwinnable. “If you were to say, for instance, Kerry, in Washington, D.C. The subject of that we’re going to rid Afghanistan of the more to Kerry’s uncharacteristically Churchillian Taliban and build a prosperous democracy the point, remarks, delivered in the Treaty Room at the instead, the president is aware that someone, Churchillian State Department, was the gassing of civilians seven years later, is going to hold you to that habits of by the president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad. promise,” Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy thought, helped Obama, in whose Cabinet Kerry serves national-security adviser, and his foreign- faithfully, but with some exasperation, is policy amanuensis, told me not long ago. bring his himself given to vaulting oratory, but not But Kerry’s rousing remarks on that August predecessor, usually of the martial sort associated with day, which had been drafted in part by Rhodes, George W. Bush, Churchill. Obama believes that the were threaded with righteous anger and bold to ruinous war Manichaeanism, and eloquently rendered promises, including the barely concealed threat in Iraq. bellicosity, commonly associated with Churchill of imminent attack. Kerry, like Obama himself, were justified by Hitler’s rise, and were at times was horrified by the sins committed by the defensible in the struggle against the Soviet Syrian regime in its attempt to put down a Union. But he also thinks rhetoric should be two-year-old rebellion. In the Damascus weaponized sparingly, if at all, in today’s more suburb of Ghouta nine days earlier, Assad’s President Barack Obama in the White House ambiguous and complicated international arena. army had murdered more than 1,400 civilians

50 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 51 with sarin gas. The strong sentiment inside the dispositionally interventionist among Obama’s Obama flipped this plea on its head. “When Martha’s Vineyard when they crossed paths Obama administration was that Assad had senior advisers, had argued early for arming you have a professional army,” he once told there later.) earned dire punishment. In Situation Room Syria’s rebels. Power, who during this period me, “that is well armed and sponsored by two Syria, for Obama, represented a slope meetings that followed the attack on Ghouta, served on the National Security Council staff, is large states”—Iran and Russia—“who have potentially as slippery as Iraq. In his first term, only the White House chief of staff, Denis the author of a celebrated book excoriating a huge stakes in this, and they are fighting he came to believe that only a handful of McDonough, cautioned explicitly about the succession of U.S. presidents for their failures against a farmer, a carpenter, an engineer who threats in the Middle East conceivably perils of intervention. John Kerry argued to prevent genocide. The book, A Problem From started out as protesters and suddenly now see warranted direct U.S. military intervention. vociferously for action. Hell, published in 2002, drew Obama to Power themselves in the midst of a civil conflict …” These included the threat posed by al‑Qaeda; “As previous storms in history have while he was in the U.S. Senate, though the two He paused. “The notion that we could have—in threats to the continued existence of Israel (“It gathered, when unspeakable crimes were were not an obvious ideological match. Power a clean way that didn’t commit U.S. military would be a moral failing for me as president of within our power to stop them, we have been is a partisan of the doctrine known as forces—changed the equation on the ground the United States” not to defend Israel, he once warned against the temptations of looking the “responsibility to protect,” which holds that there was never true.” The message Obama told me); and, not unrelated to Israel’s other way,” Kerry said in his speech. “History sovereignty should not be considered inviolate telegraphed in speeches and interviews was security, the threat posed by a nuclear-armed is full of leaders who have warned against when a country is slaughtering its own citizens. clear: He would not end up like the second Iran. The danger to the United States posed by inaction, indifference, and especially against She lobbied him to endorse this doctrine in the President Bush—a president who became the Assad regime did not rise to the level of silence when it mattered most.” speech he delivered when he accepted the tragically overextended in the Middle East, these challenges. Kerry counted President Obama among Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, but he declined. whose decisions filled the wards of Walter Reed Given Obama’s reticence about those leaders. A year earlier, when the Obama, Obama generally does not believe a president with grievously wounded soldiers, who was intervention, the bright-red line he drew for Obama would administration suspected that the Assad regime unlike liberal should place American soldiers at great risk in helpless to stop the obliteration of his Assad in the summer of 2012 was striking. Even say privately was contemplating the use of chemical interventionists, order to prevent humanitarian disasters, unless reputation, even when he recalibrated his his own advisers were surprised. “I didn’t that the first weapons, Obama had declared: “We have been those disasters pose a direct security threat to policies in his second term. Obama would say know it was coming,” his secretary of defense very clear to the Assad regime … that a red line is an admirer of the United States. privately that the first task of an American at the time, Leon Panetta, told me. I was told task of an for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of the foreign- Power sometimes argued with Obama in president in the post-Bush international arena that Vice President Joe Biden repeatedly warned American chemical weapons moving around or being policy realism of front of other National Security Council was “Don’t do stupid shit.” Obama against drawing a red line on chemical president in the utilized. That would change my calculus. That President officials, to the point where he could no longer Obama’s reticence frustrated Power and weapons, fearing that it would one day have to post-Bush would change my equation.” George H. W. conceal his frustration. “Samantha, enough, others on his national-security team who had a be enforced. international Despite this threat, Obama seemed to many I’ve already read your book,” he once snapped. preference for action. Hillary Clinton, when she Kerry, in his remarks on August 30, 2013, critics to be coldly detached from the suffering Bush and, in Obama, unlike liberal interventionists, is an was Obama’s secretary of state, argued for an suggested that Assad should be punished in arena was of innocent Syrians. Late in the summer of particular, of admirer of the foreign-policy realism of early and assertive response to Assad’s part because the “credibility and the future “Don’t do 2011, he had called for Assad’s departure. “For Bush’s national- President George H. W. Bush and, in particular, violence. In 2014, after she left office, Clinton interests of the United States of America and stupid shit.” the sake of the Syrian people,” Obama said, security adviser, of Bush’s national-security adviser, Brent told me that “the failure to help build up a our allies” were at stake. “It is directly related “the time has come for President Assad to step Brent Scowcroft Scowcroft (“I love that guy,” Obama once told credible fighting force of the people who were to our credibility and whether countries still aside.” But Obama initially did little to bring me). Bush and Scowcroft removed Saddam the originators of the protests against Assad … believe the United States when it says about Assad’s end. (“I love that Hussein’s army from Kuwait in 1991, and they left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now something. They are watching to see if Syria He resisted demands to act in part because guy,” Obama deftly managed the disintegration of the Soviet filled.” When The Atlantic published this can get away with it, because then maybe they he assumed, based on the analysis of U.S. once told me). Union; Scowcroft also, on Bush’s behalf, statement, and also published Clinton’s too can put the world at greater risk.” intelligence, that Assad would fall without his toasted the leaders of China shortly after the assessment that “great nations need Ninety minutes later, at the White House, help. “He thought Assad would go the way slaughter in Tiananmen Square. As Obama was organizing principles, and ‘Don’t do stupid Obama reinforced Kerry’s message in a public Mubarak went,” Dennis Ross, a former Middle writing his campaign manifesto, The Audacity stuff’ is not an organizing principle,” Obama statement: “It’s important for us to recognize East adviser to Obama, told me, referring to the of Hope, in 2006, Susan Rice, then an informal became “rip-shit angry,” according to one of that when over 1,000 people are killed, quick departure of Egyptian President Hosni adviser, felt it necessary to remind him to his senior advisers. The president did not including hundreds of innocent children, Mubarak in early 2011, a moment that include at least one line of praise for the understand how “Don’t do stupid shit” could through the use of a weapon that 98 or 99 represented the acme of the Arab Spring. But as foreign policy of President Bill Clinton, to be considered a controversial slogan. Ben percent of humanity says should not be used Assad clung to power, Obama’s resistance to partially balance the praise he showered on Rhodes recalls that “the questions we were even in war, and there is no action, then we’re direct intervention only grew. After several Bush and Scowcroft. asking in the White House were ‘Who exactly is sending a signal that that international norm months of deliberation, he authorized the CIA At the outset of the Syrian uprising, in early in the stupid-shit caucus? Who is pro–stupid doesn’t mean much. And that is a danger to our to train and fund Syrian rebels, but he also 2011, Power argued that the rebels, drawn from shit?’ ” The Iraq invasion, Obama believed, national security.” shared the outlook of his former defense the ranks of ordinary citizens, deserved should have taught Democratic interventionists It appeared as though Obama had drawn secretary, Robert Gates, who had routinely America’s enthusiastic support. Others noted like Clinton, who had voted for its the conclusion that damage to American asked in meetings, “Shouldn’t we finish up the that the rebels were farmers and doctors and authorization, the dangers of doing stupid shit. credibility in one region of the world would two wars we have before we look for another?” carpenters, comparing these revolutionaries to (Clinton quickly apologized to Obama for her bleed into others, and that U.S. deterrent The current U.S. ambassador to the United the men who won America’s war for comments, and a Clinton spokesman credibility was indeed at stake in Syria. Assad, Nations, Samantha Power, who is the most independence. announced that the two would “hug it out” on it seemed, had succeeded in pushing the

52 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 53 president to a place he never thought he would bluff.” America’s closest allies in Europe and fire cruise missiles at regime targets. French simply not prepared to authorize a strike. He have to go. Obama generally believes that the across the Middle East believed Obama was President François Hollande, the most asked McDonough, his chief of staff, to take a Washington foreign-policy establishment, threatening military action, and his own enthusiastically pro-intervention among walk with him on the South Lawn of the White which he secretly disdains, makes a fetish of advisers did as well. At a joint press conference Europe’s leaders, was preparing to strike as House. Obama did not choose McDonough “credibility”—particularly the sort of with Obama at the White House the previous well. All week, White House officials had randomly: He is the Obama aide most averse to credibility purchased with force. The May, David Cameron, the British prime publicly built the case that Assad had U.S. military intervention, and someone who, in preservation of credibility, he says, led to minister, had said, “Syria’s history is being committed a crime against humanity. Kerry’s the words of one of his colleagues, “thinks in Vietnam. Within the White House, Obama written in the blood of her people, and it is speech would mark the culmination of this terms of traps.” Obama, ordinarily a would argue that “dropping bombs on someone happening on our watch.” Cameron’s campaign. preternaturally confident man, was looking for to prove that you’re willing to drop bombs on statement, one of his advisers told me, was But the president had grown queasy. In the validation, and trying to devise ways to explain someone is just about the worst reason to use meant to encourage Obama toward more- days after the gassing of Ghouta, Obama would his change of heart, both to his own aides and to force.” decisive action. “The prime minister was later tell me, he found himself recoiling from the public. He and McDonough stayed outside American national-security credibility, as it certainly under the impression that the the idea of an attack unsanctioned by for an hour. Obama told him he was worried is conventionally understood in the Pentagon, president would enforce the red line,” the international law or by Congress. The American that Assad would place civilians as “human the State Department, and the cluster of think adviser told me. The Saudi ambassador in people seemed unenthusiastic about a Syria shields” around obvious targets. He also pointed tanks headquartered within walking distance of Washington at the time, Adel al-Jubeir, told intervention; so too did one of the few foreign out an underlying flaw in the proposed strike: the White House, is an intangible yet potent friends, and his superiors in Riyadh, that the leaders Obama respects, Angela Merkel, the U.S. missiles would not be fired at chemical- force—one that, when properly nurtured, keeps president was finally ready to strike. Obama German chancellor. She told him that her weapons depots, for fear of sending plumes of America’s friends feeling secure and keeps the “figured out how important this is,” Jubeir, country would not participate in a Syria poison into the air. A strike would target international order stable. who is now the Saudi foreign minister, told one Obama also campaign. And in a stunning development, on military units that had delivered these weapons, In White House meetings that crucial week interlocutor. “He will definitely strike.” shared with Thursday, August 29, the British Parliament but not the weapons themselves. in August, Biden, who ordinarily shared Obama had already ordered the Pentagon to denied David Cameron its blessing for an attack. Obama also shared with McDonough a Obama’s worries about American overreach, develop target lists. Five Arleigh Burke–class McDonough a John Kerry later told me that when he heard long-standing resentment: He was tired of argued passionately that “big nations don’t destroyers were in the Mediterranean, ready to long-standing that, “internally, I went, Oops.” watching Washington unthinkingly drift resentment: Obama was also unsettled by a surprise toward war in Muslim countries. Four years He was tired of visit early in the week from James Clapper, his earlier, the president believed, the Pentagon watching director of national intelligence, who had “jammed” him on a troop surge for interrupted the President’s Daily Brief, the Afghanistan. Now, on Syria, he was beginning Washington threat report Obama receives each morning to feel jammed again. unthinkingly from Clapper’s analysts, to make clear that the When the two men came back to the Oval drift toward war intelligence on Syria’s use of sarin gas, while Office, the president told his national-security in Muslim robust, was not a “slam dunk.” He chose the aides that he planned to stand down. There countries. term carefully. Clapper, the chief of an would be no attack the next day; he wanted to intelligence community traumatized by its refer the matter to Congress for a vote. Aides in failures in the run-up to the Iraq War, was not the room were shocked. Susan Rice, now going to overpromise, in the manner of the Obama’s national-security adviser, argued that onetime CIA director George Tenet, who the damage to America’s credibility would be famously guaranteed George W. Bush a “slam serious and lasting. Others had difficulty dunk” in Iraq. fathoming how the president could reverse While the Pentagon and the White House’s himself the day before a planned strike. Obama, national-security apparatuses were still however, was completely calm. “If you’ve been moving toward war (John Kerry told me he was around him, you know when he’s ambivalent expecting a strike the day after his speech), the about something, when it’s a 51–49 decision,” president had come to believe that he was Ben Rhodes told me. “But he was completely at walking into a trap—one laid both by allies and ease.” by adversaries, and by conventional Not long ago, I asked Obama to describe his expectations of what an American president is thinking on that day. He listed the practical supposed to do. worries that had preoccupied him. “We had UN Many of his advisers did not grasp the depth inspectors on the ground who were completing of the president’s misgivings; his Cabinet and their work, and we could not risk taking a shot his allies were certainly unaware of them. But while they were there. A second major factor

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with members of the National Security Council, including Susan Rice and John Kerry (second and third from left), his doubts were growing. Late on Friday was the failure of Cameron to obtain the in December 2014. (Pete Souza / White House) afternoon, Obama determined that he was consent of his parliament.”

54 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 55 The third, and most important, factor, he the Senate, had met with Obama in the White told me, was “our assessment that while we House earlier in the week and had been could inflict some damage on Assad, we could promised an attack. They were angered by the not, through a missile strike, eliminate the about-face. Damage was done even inside the chemical weapons themselves, and what I administration. Neither Chuck Hagel, then the would then face was the prospect of Assad secretary of defense, nor John Kerry was in the having survived the strike and claiming he had Oval Office when the president informed his successfully defied the United States, that the team of his thinking. Kerry would not learn United States had acted unlawfully in the about the change until later that evening. “I absence of a UN mandate, and that that would just got fucked over,” he told a friend shortly have potentially strengthened his hand rather after talking to the president that night. (When than weakened it.” I asked Kerry recently about that tumultuous The fourth factor, he said, was of deeper night, he said, “I didn’t stop to analyze it. I philosophical importance. “This falls in the figured the president had a reason to make a category of something that I had been brooding decision and, honestly, I understood his on for some time,” he said. “I had come into notion.”) office with the strong belief that the scope of The next few days were chaotic. The executive power in national-security issues is president asked Congress to authorize the use very broad, but not limitless.” of force—the irrepressible Kerry served as Obama knew his decision not to bomb Syria chief lobbyist—and it quickly became apparent would likely upset America’s allies. It did. The in the White House that Congress had little prime minister of France, Manuel Valls, told me interest in a strike. When I spoke with Biden that his government was already worried about recently about the red-line decision, he made Amid the President Barack Obama meets with Secretary of State John Kerry in the Oval Office (Pete Souza / White House) the consequences of earlier inaction in Syria special note of this fact. “It matters to have confusion, a when word came of the stand-down. “By not Congress with you, in terms of your ability to deus ex machina intervening early, we have created a monster,” sustain what you set out to do,” he said. Obama appeared in the consistently contentious relationship. that America’s credibility was at stake. And so Valls told me. “We were absolutely certain that “didn’t go to Congress to get himself off the form of the The removal of Syria’s chemical-weapons for me to press the pause button at that the U.S. administration would say yes. Working hook. He had his doubts at that point, but he stockpiles represented “the one ray of light in a moment, I knew, would cost me politically. And with the Americans, we had already seen the knew that if he was going to do anything, he Russian very dark region,” Netanyahu told me not long the fact that I was able to pull back from the targets. It was a great surprise. If we had better damn well have the public with him, or president, after the deal was announced. immediate pressures and think through in my bombed as was planned, I think things would be it would be a very short ride.” Congress’s clear Vladimir Putin. John Kerry today expresses no patience for own mind what was in America’s interest, not different today.” The crown prince of Abu ambivalence convinced Biden that Obama was those who argue, as he himself once did, that only with respect to Syria but also with respect Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who correct to fear the slippery slope. “What Obama should have bombed Assad-regime to our democracy, was as tough a decision as “I’m very proud was already upset with Obama for “abandoning” happens when we get a plane shot down? Do sites in order to buttress America’s deterrent I’ve made—and I believe ultimately it was the of this moment,” Hosni Mubarak, the former president of Egypt, we not go in and rescue?,” Biden asked. “You capability. “You’d still have the weapons there, right decision to make.” he told me. “The fumed to American visitors that the U.S. was led need the support of the American people.” and you’d probably be fighting ISIL” for This was the moment the president overwhelming by an “untrustworthy” president. The king of Amid the confusion, a deus ex machina control of the weapons, he said, referring to believes he finally broke with what he calls, Jordan, Abdullah II—already dismayed by what appeared in the form of the Russian president, the Islamic State, the terror group also known derisively, the “Washington playbook.” weight of he saw as Obama’s illogical desire to distance Vladimir Putin. At the G20 summit in St. as ISIS. “It just doesn’t make sense. But I can’t “Where am I controversial? When it comes conventional the U.S. from its traditional Sunni Arab allies Petersburg, which was held the week after the deny to you that this notion about the red line to the use of military power,” he said. “That is wisdom and the and create a new alliance with Iran, Assad’s Shia Syria reversal, Obama pulled Putin aside, he being crossed and [Obama’s] not doing the source of the controversy. There’s a machinery of sponsor—complained privately, “I think I recalled to me, and told the Russian president anything gained a life of its own.” playbook in Washington that presidents are our national- believe in American power more than Obama “that if he forced Assad to get rid of the Obama understands that the decision he supposed to follow. It’s a playbook that comes does.” The Saudis, too, were infuriated. They chemical weapons, that that would eliminate made to step back from air strikes, and to allow out of the foreign-policy establishment. And security had never trusted Obama—he had, long before the need for us taking a military strike.” the violation of a red line he himself had drawn the playbook prescribes responses to different apparatus had he became president, referred to them as a Within weeks, Kerry, working with his Russian to go unpunished, will be interrogated events, and these responses tend to be gone fairly far. “so-called ally” of the U.S. “Iran is the new counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, would engineer the mercilessly by historians. But today that militarized responses. Where America is great power of the Middle East, and the U.S. is removal of most of Syria’s chemical-weapons decision is a source of deep satisfaction for him. directly threatened, the playbook works. But the old,” Jubeir, the Saudi ambassador in arsenal—a program whose existence Assad “I’m very proud of this moment,” he told the playbook can also be a trap that can lead to Washington, told his superiors in Riyadh. until then had refused to even acknowledge. me. “The overwhelming weight of conventional bad decisions. In the midst of an international Obama’s decision caused tremors across The arrangement won the president praise wisdom and the machinery of our national- challenge like Syria, you get judged harshly if Washington as well. John McCain and Lindsey from, of all people, Benjamin Netanyahu, the security apparatus had gone fairly far. The you don’t follow the playbook, even if there are Graham, the two leading Republican hawks in Israeli prime minister, with whom he has had a perception was that my credibility was at stake, good reasons why it does not apply.”

56 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 57 I have come to believe that, in Obama’s was a case study in embarrassingly amateurish past few months, I’ve spent several hours provisional achievements, to be sure, but mind, August 30, 2013, was his liberation day, improvisation.” talking with him about the broadest themes of achievements nonetheless: the opening to the day he defied not only the foreign-policy Obama’s defenders, however, argue that he his “long game” foreign policy, including the Cuba, the Paris climate-change accord, the establishment and its cruise-missile playbook, did no damage to U.S. credibility, citing Assad’s themes he is most eager to discuss—namely, Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, but also the demands of America’s frustrating, subsequent agreement to have his chemical the ones that have nothing to do with the and, of course, the Iran nuclear deal. These he high-maintenance allies in the Middle East— weapons removed. “The threat of force was Middle East. accomplished despite his growing sense that countries, he complains privately to friends credible enough for them to give up their “ISIS is not an existential threat to the larger forces—the riptide of tribal feeling in a and advisers, that seek to exploit American chemical weapons,” Tim Kaine, a Democratic United States,” he told me in one of these world that should have already shed its “muscle” for their own narrow and sectarian senator from Virginia, told me. “We threatened conversations. “Climate change is a potential atavism; the resilience of small men who rule ends. By 2013, Obama’s resentments were well military action and they responded. That’s existential threat to the entire world if we don’t large countries in ways contrary to their own developed. He resented military leaders who deterrent credibility.” do something about it.” Obama explained that best interests; the persistence of fear as a believed they could fix any problem if the History may record August 30, 2013, as the climate change worries him in particular governing human emotion—frequently commander in chief would simply give them day Obama prevented the U.S. from entering yet because “it is a political problem perfectly conspire against the best of America’s what they wanted, and he resented the another disastrous Muslim civil war, and the designed to repel government intervention. It intentions. But he also has come to learn, he foreign-policy think-tank complex. A widely day he removed the threat of a chemical attack involves every single country, and it is a told me, that very little is accomplished in held sentiment inside the White House is that on Israel, Turkey, or Jordan. Or it could be comparatively slow-moving emergency, so international affairs without U.S. leadership. many of the most prominent foreign-policy remembered as the day he let the Middle East there is always something seemingly more Obama talked me through this apparent think tanks in Washington are doing the slip from America’s grasp, into the hands of urgent on the agenda.” contradiction. “I want a president who has the bidding of their Arab and pro-Israel funders. Russia, Iran, and ISIS. At the moment, of course, the most urgent sense that you can’t fix everything,” he said. I’ve heard one administration official refer to A widely held Obama talked of the “seemingly more urgent” issues is Syria. But on the other hand, “if we don’t set the Massachusetts Avenue, the home of many of sentiment inside first spoke with Obama about foreign policy me through this But at any given moment, Obama’s entire agenda, it doesn’t happen.” He explained what these think tanks, as “Arab-occupied the White House Iwhen he was a U.S. senator, in 2006. At the apparent presidency could be upended by North Korean he meant. “The fact is, there is not a summit territory.” is that many of time, I was familiar mainly with the text of a contradiction. aggression, or an assault by Russia on a member I’ve attended since I’ve been president where For some foreign-policy experts, even the most speech he had delivered four years earlier, at a “I want a of nato, or an ISIS-planned attack on U.S. soil. we are not setting the agenda, where we are within his own administration, Obama’s Chicago antiwar rally. It was an unusual speech Few presidents have faced such diverse tests on not responsible for the key results,” he said. about-face on enforcing the red line was a prominent for an antiwar rally in that it was not antiwar; president who the international stage as Obama has, and the “That’s true whether you’re talking about dispiriting moment in which he displayed foreign-policy Obama, who was then an Illinois state senator, has the sense challenge for him, as for all presidents, has been nuclear security, whether you’re talking about irresolution and naïveté, and did lasting think tanks in argued only against one specific and, at the time, that you can’t fix to distinguish the merely urgent from the truly saving the world financial system, whether damage to America’s standing in the world. Washington are still theoretical, war. “I suffer no illusions about everything,” important, and to focus on the important. you’re talking about climate.” “Once the commander in chief draws that red doing the Saddam Hussein,” he said. “He is a brutal man. he said. My goal in our recent conversations was to One day, over lunch in the Oval Office line,” Leon Panetta, who served as CIA director A ruthless man … But I also know that Saddam see the world through Obama’s eyes, and to dining room, I asked the president how he and then as secretary of defense in Obama’s bidding of their poses no imminent and direct threat to the United understand what he believes America’s role in thought his foreign policy might be understood first term, told me recently, “then I think the Arab and pro- States or to his neighbors.” He added, the world should be. This article is informed by by historians. He started by describing for me a credibility of the commander in chief and this Israel funders. “I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear our recent series of conversations, which took four-box grid representing the main schools of nation is at stake if he doesn’t enforce it.” rationale and without strong international place in the Oval Office; over lunch in his American foreign-policy thought. One box he Right after Obama’s reversal, Hillary Clinton support will only fan the flames of the Middle dining room; aboard Air Force One; and in called isolationism, which he dismissed out of said privately, “If you say you’re going to East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, Kuala Lumpur during his most recent visit to hand. “The world is ever-shrinking,” he said. strike, you have to strike. There’s no choice.” impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the Asia, in November. It is also informed by my “Withdrawal is untenable.” The other boxes he “Assad is effectively being rewarded for recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.” previous interviews with him and by his labeled realism, liberal interventionism, and the use of chemical weapons, rather than This speech had made me curious about its speeches and prolific public ruminations, as internationalism. “I suppose you could call me ‘punished’ as originally planned.” Shadi author. I wanted to learn how an Illinois state well as by conversations with his top foreign- a realist in believing we can’t, at any given Hamid, a scholar at the Brookings Institution, senator, a part-time law professor who spent policy and national-security advisers, foreign moment, relieve all the world’s misery,” he wrote for The Atlantic at the time. “He has his days traveling between Chicago and leaders and their ambassadors in Washington, said. “We have to choose where we can make a managed to remove the threat of U.S. military Springfield, had come to a more prescient friends of the president and others who have real impact.” He also noted that he was quite action while giving very little up in return.” understanding of the coming quagmire than the spoken with him about his policies and obviously an internationalist, devoted as he is Even commentators who have been broadly most experienced foreign-policy thinkers of his decisions, and his adversaries and critics. to strengthening multilateral organizations and sympathetic to Obama’s policies saw this party, including such figures as Hillary Clinton, Over the course of our conversations, I international norms. episode as calamitous. Gideon Rose, the editor Joe Biden, and John Kerry, not to mention, of came to see Obama as a president who has I told him my impression was that the of Foreign Affairs, wrote recently that Obama’s course, most Republicans and many foreign- grown steadily more fatalistic about the various traumas of the past seven years have, if handling of this crisis—“first casually policy analysts and writers, including me. constraints on America’s ability to direct global anything, intensified his commitment to announcing a major commitment, then Since that first meeting in 2006, I’ve events, even as he has, late in his presidency, realist-driven restraint. Had nearly two full dithering about living up to it, then frantically interviewed Obama periodically, mainly on accumulated a set of potentially historic terms in the White House soured him on tossing the ball to Congress for a decision— matters related to the Middle East. But over the foreign-policy achievements—controversial, interventionism?

58 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 59 “For all of our warts, the United States has automatically solve it. There are going to be self-righteousness. “We have history,” he said. said, is that Obama “appears to have had a clearly been a force for good in the world,” he times where our security interests conflict with “We have history in Iran, we have history in personal, ideological commitment to the idea said. “If you compare us to previous our concerns about human rights. There are Indonesia and Central America. So we have to that foreign policy had consumed too much of superpowers, we act less on the basis of naked going to be times where we can do something be mindful of our history when we start talking the nation’s attention and resources.” self-interest, and have been interested in about innocent people being killed, but there about intervening, and understand the source I asked Obama about retrenchment. establishing norms that benefit everyone. If it are going to be times where we can’t.” of other people’s suspicions.” “Almost every great world power has is possible to do good at a bearable cost, to save If Obama ever questioned whether America If Obama ever In his efforts to off-load some of America’s “What I think is succumbed” to overextension, he said. “What I lives, we will do it.” really is the world’s one indispensable nation, foreign-policy responsibilities to its allies, think is not smart is the idea that every time If a crisis, or a humanitarian catastrophe, he no longer does so. But he is the rare questioned Obama appears to be a classic retrenchment not smart is the there is a problem, we send in our military to does not meet his stringent standard for what president who seems at times to resent whether president in the manner of Dwight D. idea that every impose order. We just can’t do that.” constitutes a direct national-security threat, indispensability, rather than embrace it. “Free America really is Eisenhower and Richard Nixon. Retrenchment, time there is a But once he decides that a particular Obama said, he doesn’t believe that he should be riders aggravate me,” he told me. Recently, the world’s one in this context, is defined as “pulling back, problem, we challenge represents a direct national-security forced into silence. He is not so much the realist, Obama warned that Great Britain would no indispensable spending less, cutting risk, and shifting send in our threat, he has shown a willingness to act he suggested, that he won’t pass judgment on longer be able to claim a “special relationship” burdens to allies,” Stephen Sestanovich, an unilaterally. This is one of the larger ironies of other leaders. Though he has so far ruled out the with the United States if it did not commit to nation, he no expert on presidential foreign policy at the military to the Obama presidency: He has relentlessly use of direct American power to depose Assad, spending at least 2 percent of its GDP on longer does so. Council on Foreign Relations, explained to me. impose order. questioned the efficacy of force, but he has also he was not wrong, he argued, to call on Assad to defense. “You have to pay your fair share,” But he is the “If John McCain had been elected in 2008, you We just can’t become the most successful terrorist-hunter in go. “Oftentimes when you get critics of our Syria Obama told David Cameron, who subsequently rare president would still have seen some degree of do that.” the history of the presidency, one who will policy, one of the things that they’ll point out is met the 2 percent threshold. who seems at retrenchment,” Sestanovich said. “It’s what hand to his successor a set of tools an ‘You called for Assad to go, but you didn’t force Part of his mission as president, Obama the country wanted. If you come into office in accomplished assassin would envy. “He applies him to go. You did not invade.’ And the notion is explained, is to spur other countries to take times to resent the middle of a war that is not going well, different standards to direct threats to the that if you weren’t going to overthrow the action for themselves, rather than wait for the indispensability, you’re convinced that the American people U.S.,” Ben Rhodes says. “For instance, despite regime, you shouldn’t have said anything. U.S. to lead. The defense of the liberal rather than have hired you to do less.” One difference his misgivings about Syria, he has not had a That’s a weird argument to me, the notion that international order against jihadist terror, embrace it. between Eisenhower and Nixon, on the one second thought about drones.” Some critics if we use our moral authority to say ‘This is a Russian adventurism, and Chinese bullying “Free riders hand, and Obama, on the other, Sestanovich argue he should have had a few second brutal regime, and this is not how a leader depends in part, he believes, on the willingness should treat his people,’ once you do that, you of other nations to share the burden with the aggravate me,” are obliged to invade the country and install a U.S. This is why the controversy surrounding government you prefer.” the assertion—made by an anonymous “I am very much the internationalist,” administration official to The New Yorker Obama said in a later conversation. “And I am during the Libya crisis of 2011—that his policy also an idealist insofar as I believe that we consisted of “leading from behind” perturbed should be promoting values, like democracy him. “We don’t have to always be the ones who and human rights and norms and values, are up front,” he told me. “Sometimes we’re because not only do they serve our interests the going to get what we want precisely because we more people adopt values that we share—in the are sharing in the agenda. The irony is that it same way that, economically, if people adopt was precisely in order to prevent the Europeans rule of law and property rights and so forth, and the Arab states from holding our coats that is to our advantage—but because it makes while we did all the fighting that we, by design, the world a better place. And I’m willing to say insisted” that they lead during the mission to that in a very corny way, and in a way that remove Muammar Qaddafi from power in probably Brent Scowcroft would not say. Libya. “It was part of the anti–free rider “Having said that,” he continued, “I also campaign.” believe that the world is a tough, complicated, The president also seems to believe that messy, mean place, and full of hardship and sharing leadership with other countries is a tragedy. And in order to advance both our way to check America’s more unruly impulses. security interests and those ideals and values “One of the reasons I am so focused on that we care about, we’ve got to be hardheaded taking action multilaterally where our at the same time as we’re bighearted, and pick direct interests are not at stake is that and choose our spots, and recognize that there multilateralism regulates hubris,” he are going to be times where the best that we explained. He consistently invokes what he can do is to shine a spotlight on something understands to be America’s past failures that’s terrible, but not believe that we can overseas as a means of checking American British Prime Minister David Cameron, flanked by U.K. officials, attends dinner at the White House in January 2015. (Pete Souza / White House)

60 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 61 thoughts about what they see as the overuse of Iran. The nuclear deal he struck with Iran bypass Jerusalem on his first presidential visit Through the first flush of the Arab Spring, drones. But John Brennan, Obama’s CIA proves, if nothing else, that Obama is not to the Middle East. in 2011, Obama continued to speak director, told me recently that he and the risk-averse. He has bet global security and his When I asked Obama recently what he had optimistically about the Middle East’s future, president “have similar views. One of them is own legacy that one of the world’s leading hoped to accomplish with his Cairo reset coming as close as he ever would to embracing that sometimes you have to take a life to save state sponsors of terrorism will adhere to an speech, he said that he had been trying— the so-called freedom agenda of George W. even more lives. We have a similar view of agreement to curtail its nuclear program. unsuccessfully, he acknowledged—to persuade Bush, which was characterized in part by the just-war theory. The president requires It is assumed, at least among his critics, Muslims to more closely examine the roots of belief that democratic values could be near-certainty of no collateral damage. But if that Obama sought the Iran deal because he has their unhappiness. implanted in the Middle East. He equated he believes it is necessary to act, he doesn’t a vision of a historic American-Persian “My argument was this: Let’s all stop protesters in Tunisia and Tahrir Square with “After decades hesitate.” rapprochement. But his desire for the nuclear pretending that the cause of the Middle East’s Rosa Parks and the “patriots of Boston.” of accepting the Those who speak with Obama about jihadist agreement was born of pessimism as much as problems is Israel,” he told me. “We want to “After decades of accepting the world as it thought say that he possesses a no-illusions it was of optimism. “The Iran deal was never work to help achieve statehood and dignity for is in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it is in understanding of the forces that drive primarily about trying to open a new era of the Palestinians, but I was hoping that my world as it should be,” he said in a speech at the region, we apocalyptic violence among radical Muslims, relations between the U.S. and Iran,” Susan speech could trigger a discussion, could create the time. “The United States supports a set of have a chance to but he has been careful about articulating that Rice told me. “It was far more pragmatic and space for Muslims to address the real universal rights. And these rights include free pursue the publicly, out of concern that he will exacerbate minimalist. The aim was very simply to make a problems they are confronting—problems of speech, the freedom of peaceful assembly, the world as it anti-Muslim xenophobia. He has a tragic dangerous country substantially less governance, and the fact that some currents of freedom of religion, equality for men and realist’s understanding of sin, cowardice, and dangerous. No one had any expectation that Islam have not gone through a reformation women under the rule of law, and the right to should be” corruption, and a Hobbesian appreciation of Iran would be a more benign actor.” that would help people adapt their religious choose your own leaders … Our support for how fear shapes human behavior. And yet he doctrines to modernity. My thought was, I these principles is not a secondary interest.” To a remarkable consistently, and with apparent sincerity, once mentioned to Obama a scene from The would communicate that the U.S. is not But over the next three years, as the Arab professes optimism that the world is bending IGodfather: Part III, in which Michael Corleone standing in the way of this progress, that we Spring gave up its early promise, and brutality degree, he is toward justice. He is, in a way, a Hobbesian complains angrily about his failure to escape the would help, in whatever way possible, to and dysfunction overwhelmed the Middle East, willing to optimist. grasp of organized crime. I told Obama that the advance the goals of a practical, successful the president grew disillusioned. Some of his question why The contradictions do not end there. Middle East is to his presidency what the Mob is Arab agenda that provided a better life for deepest disappointments concern Middle America’s Though he has a reputation for prudence, he to Corleone, and I started to quote the Al Pacino ordinary people.” Eastern leaders themselves. Benjamin enemies are its has also been eager to question some of the line: “Just when I thought I was out—” long-standing assumptions undergirding “It pulls you back in,” Obama said, enemies, or why traditional U.S. foreign-policy thinking. To a completing the thought. some of its remarkable degree, he is willing to question The story of Obama’s encounter with the friends are its why America’s enemies are its enemies, or Middle East follows an arc of disenchantment. friends. why some of its friends are its friends. He In his first extended spree of fame, as a overthrew half a century of bipartisan presidential candidate in 2008, Obama often consensus in order to reestablish ties with spoke with hope about the region. In Berlin Cuba. He questioned why the U.S. should avoid that summer, in a speech to 200,000 adoring sending its forces into Pakistan to kill Germans, he said, “This is the moment we al-Qaeda leaders, and he privately questions must help answer the call for a new dawn in why Pakistan, which he believes is a the Middle East.” disastrously dysfunctional country, should be The next year, as president, he gave a considered an ally of the U.S. at all. According speech in Cairo meant to reset U.S. relations to Leon Panetta, he has questioned why the with the world’s Muslims. He spoke about U.S. should maintain Israel’s so-called Muslims in his own family, and his childhood qualitative military edge, which grants it years in Indonesia, and confessed America’s access to more sophisticated weapons systems sins even as he criticized those in the Muslim than America’s Arab allies receive; but he has world who demonized the U.S. What drew the also questioned, often harshly, the role that most attention, though, was his promise to America’s Sunni Arab allies play in fomenting address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which anti-American terrorism. He is clearly was then thought to be the central animating irritated that foreign-policy orthodoxy concern of Arab Muslims. His sympathy for the compels him to treat Saudi Arabia as an ally. Palestinians moved the audience, but And of course he decided early on, in the face complicated his relations with Benjamin of great criticism, that he wanted to reach out Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister— to America’s most ardent Middle Eastern foe, especially because Obama had also decided to Obama and Cuban President Raúl Castro at the Summit of the Americas last spring (Pete Souza / White House)

62 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 63 Netanyahu is in his own category: Obama has But what sealed Obama’s fatalistic view concerned on a humanitarian basis, who are made it less expensive for us and less risky for long believed that Netanyahu could bring about was the failure of his administration’s calling for action. But what has been a habit us.” In other words, giving France extra credit a two-state solution that would protect Israel’s intervention in Libya, in 2011. That over the last several decades in these in exchange for less risk and cost to the United status as a Jewish-majority democracy, but is intervention was meant to prevent the circumstances is people pushing us to act but States was a useful trade-off—except that too fearful and politically paralyzed to do so. country’s then-dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, then showing an unwillingness to put any skin “from the perspective of a lot of the folks in the Obama has also not had much patience for from slaughtering the people of Benghazi, as in the game.” foreign-policy establishment, well, that was Netanyahu and other Middle Eastern leaders who he was threatening to do. Obama did not want “Free riders?,” I interjected. terrible. If we’re going to do something, question his understanding of the region. In one to join the fight; he was counseled by Joe Biden “Free riders,” he said, and continued. “So obviously we’ve got to be up front, and nobody of Netanyahu’s meetings with the president, the and his first-term secretary of defense Robert what I said at that point was, we should act as else is sharing in the spotlight.” Israeli prime minister launched into something Gates, among others, to steer clear. But a part of an international coalition. But because Obama also blamed internal Libyan of a lecture about the dangers of the brutal strong faction within the national-security this is not at the core of our interests, we need to dynamics. “The degree of tribal division in region in which he lives, and Obama felt that team—Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and get a UN mandate; we need Europeans and Gulf Libya was greater than our analysts had Netanyahu was behaving in a condescending Susan Rice, who was then the ambassador to countries to be actively involved in the coalition; expected. And our ability to have any kind of fashion, and was also avoiding the subject at the United Nations, along with Samantha we will apply the military capabilities that are structure there that we could interact with and hand: peace negotiations. Finally, the president Power, Ben Rhodes, and Antony Blinken, who unique to us, but we expect others to carry their start training and start providing resources interrupted the prime minister: “Bibi, you have “Bibi, you have was then Biden’s national-security adviser— weight. And we worked with our defense teams But what has broke down very quickly.” to understand something,” he said. “I’m the to understand lobbied hard to protect Benghazi, and to ensure that we could execute a strategy been a habit Libya proved to him that the Middle East African American son of a single mother, and I something,” he prevailed. (Biden, who is acerbic about without putting boots on the ground and without over the last was best avoided. “There is no way we should live here, in this house. I live in the White House. said. “I’m the Clinton’s foreign-policy judgment, has said a long-term military commitment in Libya. several decades commit to governing the Middle East and North I managed to get elected president of the United African privately, “Hillary just wants to be Golda “So we actually executed this plan as well in these Africa,” he recently told a former colleague States. You think I don’t understand what you’re Meir.”) American bombs fell, the people of as I could have expected: We got a UN mandate, from the Senate. “That would be a basic, talking about, but I do.” Other leaders also American son of Benghazi were spared from what may or may we built a coalition, it cost us $1 billion— circumstances is fundamental mistake.” frustrate him immensely. Early on, Obama saw a single mother, not have been a massacre, and Qaddafi was which, when it comes to military operations, is people pushing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, and I live here, captured and executed. very cheap. We averted large-scale civilian us to act but resident Obama did not come into office as the sort of moderate Muslim leader who in this house. But Obama says today of the intervention, casualties, we prevented what almost surely then showing an Ppreoccupied by the Middle East. He is the would bridge the divide between East and I live in the “It didn’t work.” The U.S., he believes, planned would have been a prolonged and bloody civil unwillingness to first child of the Pacific to become president— West—but Obama now considers him a failure the Libya operation carefully—and yet the conflict. And despite all that, Libya is a mess.” born in Hawaii, raised there and, for four years, and an authoritarian, one who refuses to use his White House. country is still a disaster. Mess is the president’s diplomatic term; put any skin in in Indonesia—and he is fixated on turning enormous army to bring stability to Syria. And I managed to Why, given what seems to be the privately, he calls Libya a “shit show,” in part the game.” America’s attention to Asia. For Obama, Asia on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Wales in get elected president’s natural reticence toward getting because it’s subsequently become an ISIS “Free riders?,” represents the future. Africa and Latin America, 2014, Obama pulled aside King Abdullah II of president of the militarily ensnarled where American national haven—one that he has already targeted with I interjected. in his view, deserve far more U.S. attention Jordan. Obama said he had heard that Abdullah United States. security is not directly at stake, did he accept air strikes. It became a shit show, Obama than they receive. Europe, about which he is had complained to friends in the U.S. Congress the recommendation of his more activist believes, for reasons that had less to do with unromantic, is a source of global stability that about his leadership, and told the king that if he You think I don’t advisers to intervene? American incompetence than with the passivity requires, to his occasional annoyance, had complaints, he should raise them directly. understand “The social order in Libya has broken of America’s allies and with the obdurate American hand-holding. And the Middle East is The king denied that he had spoken ill of him. what you’re down,” Obama said, explaining his thinking at power of tribalism. a region to be avoided—one that, thanks to In recent days, the president has taken to talking about, the time. “You have massive protests against “When I go back and I ask myself what America’s energy revolution, will soon be of joking privately, “All I need in the Middle East but I do.” Qaddafi. You’ve got tribal divisions inside of went wrong,” Obama said, “there’s room for negligible relevance to the U.S. economy. is a few smart autocrats.” Obama has always Libya. Benghazi is a focal point for the criticism, because I had more faith in the It is not oil but another of the Middle East’s had a fondness for pragmatic, emotionally opposition regime. And Qaddafi is marching Europeans, given Libya’s proximity, being exports, terrorism, that shapes Obama’s contained technocrats, telling aides, “If only his army toward Benghazi, and he has said, invested in the follow-up,” he said. He noted understanding of his responsibilities there. everyone could be like the Scandinavians, this ‘We will kill them like rats.’ that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, lost Early in 2014, Obama’s intelligence advisers would all be easy.” “Now, option one would be to do nothing, his job the following year. And he said that told him that ISIS was of marginal importance. The unraveling of the Arab Spring and there were some in my administration British Prime Minister David Cameron soon According to administration officials, General darkened the president’s view of what the U.S. who said, as tragic as the Libyan situation may stopped paying attention, becoming “distracted Lloyd Austin, then the commander of Central could achieve in the Middle East, and made him be, it’s not our problem. The way I looked at it by a range of other things.” Of France, he said, Command, which oversees U.S. military realize how much the chaos there was was that it would be our problem if, in fact, “Sarkozy wanted to trumpet the flights he was operations in the Middle East, told the White distracting from other priorities. “The complete chaos and civil war broke out in taking in the air campaign, despite the fact that House that the Islamic State was “a flash in the president recognized during the course of the Libya. But this is not so at the core of U.S. we had wiped out all the air defenses and pan.” This analysis led Obama, in an interview Arab Spring that the Middle East was interests that it makes sense for us to essentially set up the entire infrastructure” for with The New Yorker, to describe the consuming us,” John Brennan, who served unilaterally strike against the Qaddafi regime. the intervention. This sort of bragging was constellation of jihadist groups in Iraq and in Obama’s first term as his chief At that point, you’ve got Europe and a number fine, Obama said, because it allowed the U.S. to Syria as terrorism’s “jayvee team.” (A counterterrorism adviser, told me recently. of Gulf countries who despise Qaddafi, or are “purchase France’s involvement in a way that spokesman for Austin told me, “At no time has

64 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 65 General Austin ever considered ISIL a ‘flash in The traveling White House press corps was the pan’ phenomenon.”) unrelenting: “Isn’t it time for your strategy to But by late spring of 2014, after ISIS took change?” one reporter asked. This was followed the northern-Iraq city of Mosul, he came to by “Could I ask you to address your critics who believe that U.S. intelligence had failed to say that your reluctance to enter another Middle appreciate the severity of the threat and the East war, and your preference of diplomacy over inadequacies of the Iraqi army, and his view using the military, makes the United States shifted. After ISIS beheaded three American weaker and emboldens our enemies?” And then civilians in Syria, it became obvious to Obama came this imperishable question, from a CNN that defeating the group was of more reporter: “If you’ll forgive the language—why immediate urgency to the U.S. than can’t we take out these bastards?” Which was overthrowing Bashar al-Assad. followed by “Do you think you really understand Advisers recall that Obama would cite a this enemy well enough to defeat them and to pivotal moment in The Dark Knight, the 2008 protect the homeland?” Batman movie, to help explain not only how he As the questions unspooled, Obama understood the role of ISIS, but how he became progressively more irritated. He understood the larger ecosystem in which it described his ISIS strategy at length, but the grew. “There’s a scene in the beginning in only time he exhibited an emotion other than which the gang leaders of Gotham are disdain was when he addressed an emerging meeting,” the president would say. “These are controversy about America’s refugee policy. men who had the city divided up. They were Republican governors and presidential Obama told the thugs, but there was a kind of order. Everyone candidates had suddenly taken to demanding had his turf. And then the Joker comes in and that the United States block Syrian refugees assembled lights the whole city on fire. ISIL is the Joker. It from coming to America. Ted Cruz had reporters, has the capacity to set the whole region on fire. proposed accepting only Christian Syrians. “that’s not That’s why we have to fight it.” Chris Christie had said that all refugees, American. That’s The rise of the Islamic State deepened including “orphans under 5,” should be not who we are. Obama’s conviction that the Middle East could banned from entry until proper vetting not be fixed—not on his watch, and not for a procedures had been put in place. We don’t have generation to come. This rhetoric appeared to frustrate Obama religious tests immensely. “When I hear folks say that, well, to our Obama with Jack Ma, the chairman of Alibaba, at the APEC summit in the Phillippines last November(copyright apec ceo 2015) n a rainy Wednesday in mid-November, maybe we should just admit the Christians but compassion.” OPresident Obama appeared on a stage at not the Muslims; when I hear political leaders the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) suggesting that there would be a religious test Great distance, a frantic schedule, and the Nevertheless, his advisers are fighting a summit in Manila with Jack Ma, the founder of for which person who’s fleeing from a jet-lag haze that envelops a globe-spanning constant rearguard action to keep Obama from the Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, war-torn country is admitted,” Obama told the presidential trip were working against him. But placing terrorism in what he considers its and a 31-year-old Filipina inventor named assembled reporters, “that’s not American. he has never believed that terrorism poses a “proper” perspective, out of concern that he Aisa Mijeno. The ballroom was crowded with That’s not who we are. We don’t have religious threat to America commensurate with the fear Obama will seem insensitive to the fears of the Asian CEOs, American business leaders, and tests to our compassion.” it generates. Even during the period in 2014 frequently American people. government officials from across the region. Air Force One departed Antalya and arrived when ISIS was executing its American captives reminds his staff The frustration among Obama’s advisers Obama, who was greeted warmly, first 10 hours later in Manila. That’s when the in Syria, his emotions were in check. Valerie that terrorism spills over into the Pentagon and the State delivered informal remarks from behind a president’s advisers came to understand, in the Jarrett, Obama’s closest adviser, told him Department. John Kerry, for one, seems more podium, mainly about the threat of climate words of one official, that “everyone back people were worried that the group would soon takes far fewer alarmed about ISIS than the president does. change. home had lost their minds.” Susan Rice, trying take its beheading campaign to the U.S. lives in America Recently, when I asked the secretary of state a Obama made no mention of the subject to comprehend the rising anxiety, searched her “They’re not coming here to chop our heads than handguns, general question—is the Middle East still preoccupying much of the rest of the world— hotel television in vain for CNN, finding only off,” he reassured her. Obama frequently car accidents, important to the U.S.?—he answered by talking the ISIS attacks in Paris five days earlier, which the BBC and Fox News. She toggled between reminds his staff that terrorism takes far fewer and falls in exclusively about ISIS. “This is a threat to had killed 130 people. Obama had arrived in the two, looking for the mean, she told people lives in America than handguns, car accidents, everybody in the world,” he said, a group Manila the day before from a G20 summit held on the trip. and falls in bathtubs do. Several years ago, he bathtubs do. “overtly committed to destroying people in the in Antalya, Turkey. The Paris attacks had been Later, the president would say that he had expressed to me his admiration for Israelis’ West and in the Middle East. Imagine what a main topic of conversation in Antalya, where failed to fully appreciate the fear many “resilience” in the face of constant terrorism, would happen if we don’t stand and fight them, Obama held a particularly contentious press Americans were experiencing about the and it is clear that he would like to see if we don’t lead a coalition—as we are doing, by conference on the subject. possibility of a Paris-style attack in the U.S. resilience replace panic in American society. the way. If we didn’t do that, you could have

66 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 67 allies and friends of ours fall. You could have a president can take his eye off of this.” He added, Middle East,” he said. “You have countries that visceral understanding of the Middle East massive migration into Europe that destroys “He consistently asks, even in the midst of are failing to provide prosperity and today—not the sort of understanding that a Europe, leads to the pure destruction of Europe, everything else that’s going on, ‘Where are we opportunity for their people. You’ve got a White House still oriented around themes of ends the European project, and everyone runs in the Asia-Pacific rebalance? Where are we in violent, extremist ideology, or ideologies, that hope and change might choose to advertise. “If for cover and you’ve got the 1930s all over terms of resources?’ He’s been extremely are turbocharged through social media. You’ve we’re not talking to them,” he said, referring again, with nationalism and fascism and other consistent about that, even in times of Middle got countries that have very few civic to young Asians and Africans and Latin things breaking out. Of course we have an East tension.” traditions, so that as autocratic regimes start Americans, “because the only thing we’re interest in this, a huge interest in this.” After Obama finished his presentation on Obama has been fraying, the only organizing principles are Southeast Asia, doing is figuring out how to destroy or cordon When I noted to Kerry that the president’s climate change, he joined Ma and Mijeno, who focused on sectarian.” which still has off or control the malicious, nihilistic, violent rhetoric doesn’t match his, he said, “President had seated themselves on nearby armchairs, rebuilding the He went on, “Contrast that with Southeast huge problems— parts of humanity, then we’re missing the Obama sees all of this, but he doesn’t gin it up where Obama was preparing to interview them sometimes- Asia, which still has huge problems— enormous boat.” into this kind of—he thinks we are on track. He in the manner of a daytime talk-show host—an enormous poverty, corruption—but is filled Obama’s critics argue that he is ineffective has escalated his efforts. But he’s not trying to approach that seemed to induce a momentary threadbare ties with striving, ambitious, energetic people who poverty, in cordoning off the violent nihilists of radical create hysteria … I think the president is bout of status-inversion vertigo in an audience between the are every single day scratching and clawing to corruption—but Islam because he doesn’t understand the always inclined to try to keep things on an not accustomed to such behavior in their own U.S. and its build businesses and get education and find is filled with threat. He does resist refracting radical Islam appropriate equilibrium. I respect that.” leaders. Obama began by asking Ma a question Asian treaty jobs and build infrastructure. The contrast is striving, through the “clash of civilizations” prism Obama modulates his discussion of terrorism about climate change. Ma, unsurprisingly, partners, and he pretty stark.” ambitious, popularized by the late political scientist for several reasons: He is, by nature, Spockian. agreed with Obama that it was a very important In Asia, as well as in Latin America and Samuel Huntington. But this is because, he and And he believes that a misplaced word, or a issue. Then Obama turned to Mijeno. A is perpetually on Africa, Obama says, he sees young people energetic people his advisers argue, he does not want to enlarge frightened look, or an ill-considered hyperbolic laboratory operating in the hidden recesses of the hunt for yearning for self-improvement, modernity, the ranks of the enemy. “The goal is not to claim, could tip the country into panic. The sort the West Wing could not have fashioned a opportunities to education, and material wealth. force a Huntington template onto this of panic he worries about most is the type that person more expertly designed to appeal to draw other “They are not thinking about how to kill conflict,” said John Brennan, the CIA director. would manifest itself in anti-Muslim Obama’s wonkish enthusiasms than Mijeno, a Asian nations Americans,” he says. “What they’re thinking Both François Hollande and David Cameron xenophobia or in a challenge to American young engineer who, with her brother, had about is How do I get a better education? How have spoken about the threat of radical Islam openness and to the constitutional order. invented a lamp that is somehow powered by into the U.S. do I create something of value?” in more Huntingtonesque terms, and I’ve The president also gets frustrated that salt water. orbit. He then made an observation that I came to heard that both men wish Obama would use terrorism keeps swamping his larger agenda, “Just to be clear, Aisa, so with some salt realize was representative of his bleakest, most more-direct language in discussing the threat. particularly as it relates to rebalancing water, the device that you’ve set up can America’s global priorities. For years, the provide—am I right?—about eight hours of “pivot to Asia” has been a paramount priority lighting?,” Obama asked. of his. America’s economic future lies in Asia, “Eight hours of lighting,” she responded. he believes, and the challenge posed by China’s Obama: “And the lamp is $20—” rise requires constant attention. From his Mijeno: “Around $20.” earliest days in office, Obama has been focused “I think Aisa is a perfect example of what on rebuilding the sometimes-threadbare ties we’re seeing in a lot of countries—young between the U.S. and its Asian treaty partners, entrepreneurs coming up with leapfrog and he is perpetually on the hunt for technologies, in the same ways that in large opportunities to draw other Asian nations into portions of Asia and Africa, the old landline the U.S. orbit. His dramatic opening to Burma phones never got set up,” Obama said, because was one such opportunity; Vietnam and the those areas jumped straight to mobile phones. entire constellation of Southeast Asian Obama encouraged Jack Ma to fund her work. countries fearful of Chinese domination “She’s won, by the way, a lot of prizes and gotten presented others. a lot of attention, so this is not like one of those In Manila, at APEC, Obama was determined infomercials where you order it, and you can’t to keep the conversation focused on this agenda, make the thing work,” he said, to laughter. and not on what he viewed as the containable The next day, aboard Air Force One en route challenge presented by ISIS. Obama’s secretary to Kuala Lumpur, I mentioned to Obama that of defense, Ashton Carter, told me not long ago he seemed genuinely happy to be onstage with that Obama has maintained his focus on Asia Ma and Mijeno, and then I pivoted away from even as Syria and other Middle Eastern conflicts Asia, asking him if anything about the Middle continue to flare. Obama believes, Carter said, East makes him happy. that Asia “is the part of the world of greatest “Right now, I don’t think that anybody can consequence to the American future, and that no be feeling good about the situation in the Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Washington, D.C., April 2015 (Pete Souza / White House)

68 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 69 When I mentioned this to Obama he said, Turnbull. Today, Islam in Indonesia is much and our Gulf partners, our traditional friends, Rhodes interjected: “Why can’t we get the “Hollande and Cameron have used phrases, more Arab in orientation than it was when he do not have the ability to put out the flames on bastards?” That question, the one put to the like radical Islam, that we have not used on a lived there, he said. their own or decisively win on their own, and president by the CNN reporter at the press regular basis as our way of targeting terrorism. “Aren’t the Saudis your friends?,” Turnbull would mean that we have to start coming in and conference in Turkey, had become a topic of But I’ve never had a conversation when they asked. using our military power to settle scores. And sardonic conversation during the trip. said, ‘Man, how come you’re not using this Obama smiled. “It’s complicated,” he said. that would be in the interest neither of the I turned to the president: “Well, yeah, and phrase the way you hear Republicans say it?’ ” Obama’s patience with Saudi Arabia has United States nor of the Middle East.” also, why can’t we get the bastards?” Obama says he has demanded that Muslim always been limited. In his first foreign-policy One of the most destructive forces in the He took the first question. leaders do more to eliminate the threat of commentary of note, that 2002 speech at the Middle East, Obama believes, is tribalism—a “Look, I am not of the view that human violent fundamentalism. “It is very clear what I antiwar rally in Chicago, he said, “You want a force no president can neutralize. Tribalism, beings are inherently evil,” he said. “I believe mean,” he told me, “which is that there is a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to make sure made manifest in the reversion to sect, creed, that there’s more good than bad in humanity. violent, radical, fanatical, nihilistic our so-called allies in the Middle East—the clan, and village by the desperate citizens of And if you look at the trajectory of history, I am interpretation of Islam by a faction—a tiny Saudis and the Egyptians—stop oppressing failing states, is the source of much of the optimistic. faction—within the Muslim community that is their own people, and suppressing dissent, and Muslim Middle East’s problems, and it is “I believe that overall, humanity has our enemy, and that has to be defeated.” tolerating corruption and inequality.” In the another source of his fatalism. Obama has deep become less violent, more tolerant, healthier, He then offered a critique that sounded more White House these days, one occasionally hears respect for the destructive resilience of better fed, more empathetic, more able to in line with the rhetoric of Cameron and Obama’s National Security Council officials tribalism—part of his memoir, Dreams From manage difference. But it’s hugely uneven. And Hollande. “There is also the need for Islam as a pointedly reminding visitors that the large My Father, concerns the way in which tribalism what has been clear throughout the 20th and But I’ve whole to challenge that interpretation of Islam, majority of 9/11 hijackers were not Iranian, but in post-colonial Kenya helped ruin his father’s 21st centuries is that the progress we make in “Look, I am not to isolate it, and to undergo a vigorous Saudi—and Obama himself rails against Saudi life—which goes some distance in explaining social order and taming our baser impulses and never had a discussion within their community about Arabia’s state-sanctioned misogyny, arguing in why he is so fastidious about avoiding steadying our fears can be reversed very of the view that conversation how Islam works as part of a peaceful, modern private that “a country cannot function in the entanglements in tribal conflicts. quickly. Social order starts breaking down if human beings when they said, society,” he said. But he added, “I do not modern world when it is repressing half of its “It is literally in my DNA to be suspicious people are under profound stress. Then the are inherently ‘Man, how come persuade peaceful, tolerant Muslims to engage in population.” In meetings with foreign leaders, of tribalism,” he told me. “I understand the default position is tribe—us/them, a hostility evil,” he said. you’re not using that debate if I’m not sensitive to their concern Obama has said, “You can gauge the success of tribal impulse, and acknowledge the power of toward the unfamiliar or the unknown.” “I believe that that they are being tagged with a broad brush.” a society by how it treats its women.” tribal division. I’ve been navigating tribal He continued, “Right now, across the this phrase the In private encounters with other world His frustration with the Saudis informs his divisions my whole life. In the end, it’s the globe, you’re seeing places that are there’s more way you hear leaders, Obama has argued that there will be no analysis of Middle Eastern power politics. At source of a lot of destructive acts.” undergoing severe stress because of good than bad in Republicans say comprehensive solution to Islamist terrorism one point I observed to him that he is less likely globalization, because of the collision of humanity. And if it?’ ” until Islam reconciles itself to modernity and than previous presidents to axiomatically side hile flying to Kuala Lumpur with the cultures brought about by the Internet and you look at the undergoes some of the reforms that have with Saudi Arabia in its dispute with its Wpresident, I recalled a passing reference social media, because of scarcities—some of trajectory of changed Christianity. archrival, Iran. He didn’t disagree. he had once made to me about the Hobbesian which will be attributable to climate change Though he has argued, controversially, that “Iran, since 1979, has been an enemy of argument for strong government as an antidote over the next several decades—because of history, I am the Middle East’s conflicts “date back the United States, and has engaged in state- to the unforgiving state of nature. When population growth. And in those places, the optimistic.” millennia,” he also believes that the intensified sponsored terrorism, is a genuine threat to Obama looks at swathes of the Middle East, Middle East being Exhibit A, the default Muslim fury of recent years was encouraged by Israel and many of our allies, and engages in all Hobbes’s “war of all against all” is what he position for a lot of folks is to organize tightly countries considered friends of the U.S. In a kinds of destructive behavior,” the president sees. “I have a recognition that us serving as in the tribe and to push back or strike out meeting during apec with Malcolm Turnbull, said. “And my view has never been that we the Leviathan clamps down and tames some of against those who are different. the new prime minister of Australia, Obama should throw our traditional allies”—the these impulses,” Obama had said. So I tried to “A group like ISIL is the distillation of described how he has watched Indonesia Saudis—“overboard in favor of Iran.” reopen this conversation with an unfortunately every worst impulse along these lines. The gradually move from a relaxed, syncretistic But he went on to say that the Saudis need prolix question about, among other things, notion that we are a small group that defines Islam to a more fundamentalist, unforgiving to “share” the Middle East with their Iranian “the Hobbesian notion that people organize ourselves primarily by the degree to which we interpretation; large numbers of Indonesian foes. “The competition between the Saudis and themselves into collectives to stave off their can kill others who are not like us, and women, he observed, have now adopted the the Iranians—which has helped to feed proxy supreme fear, which is death.” attempting to impose a rigid orthodoxy that hijab, the Muslim head covering. wars and chaos in Syria and Iraq and Yemen— Ben Rhodes and Joshua Earnest, the White produces nothing, that celebrates nothing, that Why, Turnbull asked, was this happening? requires us to say to our friends as well as to the House spokesman, who were seated on a couch really is contrary to every bit of human Because, Obama answered, the Saudis and Iranians that they need to find an effective way to the side of Obama’s desk on Air Force One, progress—it indicates the degree to which that other Gulf Arabs have funneled money, and to share the neighborhood and institute some could barely suppress their amusement at my kind of mentality can still take root and gain large numbers of imams and teachers, into the sort of cold peace,” he said. “An approach that discursiveness. I paused and said, “I bet if I adherents in the 21st century.” country. In the 1990s, the Saudis heavily said to our friends ‘You are right, Iran is the asked that in a press conference my colleagues So your appreciation for tribalism’s power funded Wahhabist madrassas, seminaries that source of all problems, and we will support you would just throw me out of the room.” makes you want to stay away?, I asked. “In teach the fundamentalist version of Islam in dealing with Iran’ would essentially mean “I would be really into it,” Obama said, “but other words, when people say ‘Why don’t you favored by the Saudi ruling family, Obama told that as these sectarian conflicts continue to rage everybody else would be rolling their eyes.” just go get the bastards?,’ you step back?”

70 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 71 “We have to determine the best tools to But for America to be successful in leading public reaction to terrorism: If he showed more Secret Service agents, who pointed me to a roll back those kinds of attitudes,” he said. the world, he continued, “I believe that we emotion, wouldn’t that calm people down staircase; the elevator to Obama’s floor was “There are going to be times where either have to avoid being simplistic. I think we have rather than rile them up? disabled for security reasons. Up two flights, to because it’s not a direct threat to us or because to build resilience and make sure that our “I have friends who have kids in Paris a hallway with more agents. A moment’s wait, we just don’t have the tools in our toolkit to political debates are grounded in reality. It’s right now,” he said. “And you and I and a and then Obama opened the door. His two- have a huge impact that, tragically, we have to not that I don’t appreciate the value of theater whole bunch of people who are writing about story suite was outlandish: Tara-like drapes, refrain from jumping in with both feet.” in political communications; it’s that the habits what happened in Paris have strolled along the overstuffed couches. It was enormous and I asked Obama whether he would have sent we—the media, politicians—have gotten into, same streets where people were gunned down. lonely and claustrophobic all at once. the Marines to Rwanda in 1994 to stop the and how we talk about these issues, are so And it’s right to feel fearful. And it’s important “It’s like the Hearst Castle,” I observed. genocide as it was happening, had he been detached so often from what we need to be for us not to ever get complacent. There’s a “Well, it’s a long way from the Hampton president at the time. “Given the speed with doing that for me to satisfy the cable news difference between resilience and Inn in Des Moines,” Obama said. which the killing took place, and how long it hype-fest would lead to us making worse and complacency.” He went on to describe another ESPN was playing in the background. takes to crank up the machinery of the U.S. “I believe that worse decisions over time.” “What it means, difference—between making considered When we sat down, I pointed out to the government, I understand why we did not act we have to avoid As Air Force One began its descent toward actually, is that decisions and making rash, emotional ones. president a central challenge of his pivot to fast enough,” he said. “Now, we should learn being simplistic. Kuala Lumpur, the president mentioned the you care so “What it means, actually, is that you care so Asia. Earlier in the day, at the moment he was from that. I actually think that Rwanda is an successful U.S.-led effort to stop the Ebola much that you want to get it right and you’re trying to inspire a group of gifted and eager interesting test case because it’s possible—not I think we have epidemic in West Africa as a positive example much that you not going to indulge in either impetuous or, in hijab-wearing Indonesian entrepreneurs and guaranteed, but it’s possible—that this was a to build of steady, nonhysterical management of a want to get it some cases, manufactured responses that make Burmese innovators, attention was diverted by situation where the quick application of force resilience and terrifying crisis. right and you’re good sound bites but don’t produce results. The the latest Islamist terror attack. might have been enough.” make sure that “During the couple of months in which not going to stakes are too high to play those games.” A writer at heart, he had a suggestion: “It’s He related this to Syria: “Ironically, it’s our political everybody was sure Ebola was going to destroy indulge in either With that, Obama stood up and said, “Okay, probably a pretty easy way to start the story,” probably easier to make an argument that a the Earth and there was 24/7 coverage of Ebola, gotta go.” He headed out of his office and down he said, referring to this article. relatively small force inserted quickly with debates are if I had fed the panic or in any way strayed from impetuous or, in the stairs, to the red carpet and the honor Possibly, I said, but it’s kind of a cheap international support would have resulted in grounded in ‘Here are the facts, here’s what needs to be some cases, guard and the cluster of Malaysian officials trick. averting genocide [more successfully in Rwanda] reality. It’s not done, here’s how we’re handling it, the manufactured waiting to greet him, and then to his armored “It’s cheap, but it works,” Obama said. than in Syria right now, where the degree to that I don’t likelihood of you getting Ebola is very slim, and responses that limousine, flown to Kuala Lumpur ahead of “We’re talking to these kids, and then there’s which the various groups are armed and appreciate the here’s what we need to do both domestically make good him. (Early in his first term, still unaccustomed this attack going on.” hardened fighters and are supported by a whole and overseas to stamp out this epidemic,’ ” then to the massive military operation it takes to The split-screen quality of the day host of external actors with a lot of resources value of theater “maybe people would have said ‘Obama is sound bites but move a president from one place to another, he prompted a conversation about two recent requires a much larger commitment of forces.” in political taking this as seriously as he needs to be.’ ” But don’t produce noted ruefully to aides, “I have the world’s meetings he’d held, one that generated major communications; feeding the panic by overreacting could have results. The largest carbon footprint.”) international controversy and headlines, and bama-administration officials argue that he it’s that the shut down travel to and from three African stakes are too The president’s first stop was another event one that did not. The one that drew so much Ohas a comprehensible approach to fighting habits we— countries that were already cripplingly poor, in high to play designed to highlight his turn to Asia, this one attention, I suggested, would ultimately be terrorism: a drone air force, Special Forces raids, ways that might have destroyed their a town-hall meeting with students and judged less consequential. This was the Gulf a clandestine CIA-aided army of 10,000 rebels the media, economies—which would likely have meant, those games.” entrepreneurs participating in the summit in May of 2015 at Camp David, meant battling in Syria. So why does Obama stumble politicians— among other things, a recurrence of Ebola. He administration’s Young Southeast Asian to mollify a crowd of visiting sheikhs and when explaining to the American people that he, have gotten into, added, “It would have also meant that we might Leaders Initiative. Obama entered the lecture princes who feared the impending Iran deal. too, cares about terrorism? The Turkey press and how we talk have wasted a huge amount of resources in our hall at Taylor’s University to huge applause. He The other meeting took place two months conference, I told him, “was a moment for you about these public-health systems that need to be devoted made some opening remarks, then charmed his later, in the Oval Office, between Obama and as a politician to say, ‘Yeah, I hate the bastards to flu vaccinations and other things that actually audience in an extended Q&A session. the general secretary of the Vietnamese too, and by the way, I am taking out the issues,...” kill people” in large numbers in America. But those of us watching from the press Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong. This bastards.’ ” The easy thing to do would have The plane landed. The president, leaning section became distracted by news coming meeting took place only because John Kerry been to reassure Americans in visceral terms back in his office chair with his jacket off and across our phones about a new jihadist attack, had pushed the White House to violate that he will kill the people who want to kill his tie askew, did not seem to notice. Outside, this one in Mali. Obama, busily mesmerizing protocol, since the general secretary was not a them. Does he fear a knee-jerk reaction in the on the tarmac, I could see that what appeared adoring Asian entrepreneurs, had no idea. Only head of state. But the goals trumped decorum: direction of another Middle East invasion? Or is to be a large portion of the Malaysian Armed when he got into his limousine with Susan Rice Obama wanted to lobby the Vietnamese on the he just inalterably Spockian? Forces had assembled to welcome him. As he did he get the news. Trans-Pacific Partnership—his negotiators “Every president has strengths and continued talking, I began to worry that the Later that evening, I visited the president in soon extracted a promise from the Vietnamese weaknesses,” he answered. “And there is no waiting soldiers and dignitaries would get hot. his suite at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in downtown that they would legalize independent labor doubt that there are times where I have not “I think we’re in Malaysia,” I said. “It seems Kuala Lumpur. The streets around the hotel unions—and he wanted to deepen cooperation been attentive enough to feelings and emotions to be outside this plane.” had been sealed. Armored vehicles ringed the on strategic issues. Administration officials and politics in communicating what we’re He conceded that this was true, but seemed building; the lobby was filled with swat teams. have repeatedly hinted to me that Vietnam doing and how we’re doing it.” to be in no rush, so I pressed him about his I took the elevator to a floor crowded with may one day soon host a permanent U.S.

72 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 73 Obama said that to achieve this rebalancing, question of deterrent credibility. “The the U.S. had to absorb the diatribes and insults argument is made,” I said, “that Vladimir of superannuated Castro manqués. “When I saw Putin watched you in Syria and thought, He’s Chávez, I shook his hand and he handed me a too logical, he’s too rational, he’s too into Marxist critique of the U.S.–Latin America retrenchment. I’m going to push him a little bit relationship,” Obama recalled. “And I had to sit further in Ukraine.” there and listen to Ortega”—Daniel Ortega, the Obama didn’t much like my line of inquiry. radical leftist president of Nicaragua—“make “Look, this theory is so easily disposed of that an hour-long rant against the United States. But I’m always puzzled by how people make the us being there, not taking all that stuff argument. I don’t think anybody thought that seriously—because it really wasn’t a threat to George W. Bush was overly rational or us”—helped neutralize the region’s anti- cautious in his use of military force. And as I Americanism. recall, because apparently nobody in this town “The truth is, The president’s unwillingness to counter does, Putin went into Georgia on Bush’s the baiting by American adversaries can feel watch, right smack dab in the middle of us actually, Putin, emotionally unsatisfying, I said, and I told him having over 100,000 troops deployed in Iraq.” in all of our that every so often, I’d like to see him give Obama was referring to Putin’s 2008 invasion meetings, is Vladimir Putin the finger. It’s atavistic, I said, of Georgia, a former Soviet republic, which scrupulously understanding my audience. was undertaken for many of the same reasons polite, very “It is,” the president responded coolly. Putin later invaded Ukraine—to keep an ex– “This is what they’re looking for.” Soviet republic in Russia’s sphere of influence. frank. Our He described a relationship with Putin that “Putin acted in Ukraine in response to a meetings doesn’t quite conform to common perceptions. client state that was about to slip out of his are very I had been under the impression that Obama grasp. And he improvised in a way to hang on businesslike. Obama visits a refugee center in Kuala Lumpur on a tour through Southeast Asia. He sees the region as more integral to America’s future than the Middle East. viewed Putin as nasty, brutish, and short. But, to his control there,” he said. “He’s done the He never keeps (Pete Souza / White House) Obama told me, Putin is not particularly nasty. exact same thing in Syria, at enormous cost to “The truth is, actually, Putin, in all of our the well-being of his own country. And the me waiting two military presence, to check the ambitions of we are going to Paris and trying to negotiate meetings, is scrupulously polite, very frank. notion that somehow Russia is in a stronger hours like he the country it now fears most, China. The U.S. a climate treaty, where the temptation of a Our meetings are very businesslike. He never position now, in Syria or in Ukraine, than they does a bunch of Navy’s return to Cam Ranh Bay would count as Russia or some of these other countries may keeps me waiting two hours like he does a were before they invaded Ukraine or before he these other one of the more improbable developments in be to skew the deal in a way that is bunch of these other folks.” Obama said that had to deploy military forces to Syria is to folks.” Obama recent American history. “We just moved the I noted that unhelpful.” Putin believes his relationship with the U.S. is fundamentally misunderstand the nature of Vietnamese Communist Party to recognize Obama then cited America’s increased more important than Americans tend to think. power in foreign affairs or in the world said that Putin labor rights in a way that we could never do by the 200 or so influence in Latin America—increased, he said, “He’s constantly interested in being seen as generally. Real power means you can get what believes his bullying them or scaring them,” Obama told young Southeast in part by his removal of a region-wide our peer and as working with us, because he’s you want without having to exert violence. relationship me, calling this a key victory in his campaign Asians in the stumbling block when he reestablished ties not completely stupid. He understands that Russia was much more powerful when Ukraine with the U.S. is to replace stick-waving with diplomatic room earlier with Cuba—as proof that his deliberate, Russia’s overall position in the world is looked like an independent country but was a more important persuasion. that day— nonthreatening, diplomacy-centered approach significantly diminished. And the fact that he kleptocracy that he could pull the strings on.” I noted that the 200 or so young Southeast to foreign relations is working. The ALBA invades Crimea or is trying to prop up Assad Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a than Americans Asians in the room earlier that day—including including movement, a group of Latin American doesn’t suddenly make him a player. You don’t core Russian interest but not an American one, tend to think. citizens of Communist-ruled countries— citizens of governments oriented around anti- see him in any of these meetings out here so Russia will always be able to maintain seemed to love America. “They do,” Obama Communist- Americanism, has significantly weakened helping to shape the agenda. For that matter, escalatory dominance there. said. “In Vietnam right now, America polls at ruled countries during his time as president. “When I came there’s not a G20 meeting where the Russians “The fact is that Ukraine, which is a 80 percent.” —seemed to into office, at the first Summit of the Americas set the agenda around any of the issues that non-NATO country, is going to be vulnerable to The resurgent popularity of America that I attended, Hugo Chávez”—the late are important.” military domination by Russia no matter what throughout Southeast Asia means that “we love America. anti-American Venezuelan dictator—“was still we do,” he said. can do really big, important stuff—which, by “They do,” the dominant figure in the conversation,” he ussia’s invasion of Crimea in early 2014, I asked Obama whether his position on the way, then has ramifications across the Obama said. said. “We made a very strategic decision early Rand its decision to use force to buttress the Ukraine was realistic or fatalistic. board,” he said, “because when Malaysia on, which was, rather than blow him up as this rule of its client Bashar al-Assad, have been “It’s realistic,” he said. “But this is an joins the anti-ISIL campaign, that helps us 10-foot giant adversary, to right-size the cited by Obama’s critics as proof that the example of where we have to be very clear leverage resources and credibility in our fight problem and say, ‘We don’t like what’s going post-red-line world no longer fears America. about what our core interests are and what we against terrorism. When we have strong on in Venezuela, but it’s not a threat to the So when I talked with the president in the are willing to go to war for. And at the end of relations with Indonesia, that helps us when United States.’ ” Oval Office in late January, I again raised this the day, there’s always going to be some

74 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 75 ambiguity.” He then offered up a critique he “If you think about, let’s say, the Iran other problem we’ve got worse. That’s above had heard directed against him, in order to hostage crisis, there is a narrative that has been and beyond just the existential issues of a knock it down. “I think that the best argument promoted today by some of the Republican planet that starts getting into a bad feedback you can make on the side of those who are candidates that the day Reagan was elected, loop.” critics of my foreign policy is that the president because he looked tough, the Iranians decided, Terrorism, he said, is also a long-term doesn’t exploit ambiguity enough. He doesn’t ‘We better turn over these hostages,’ ” he said. problem “when combined with the problem of maybe react in ways that might cause people to “In fact what had happened was that there was a failed states.” think, Wow, this guy might be a little crazy.” long negotiation with the Iranians and because What country does he consider the greatest “The ‘crazy Nixon’ approach,” I said: they so disliked Carter—even though the challenge to America in the coming decades? “In Confuse and frighten your enemies by making negotiations had been completed—they held terms of traditional great-state relations, I do them think you’re capable of committing those hostages until the day Reagan got elected. believe that the relationship between the United irrational acts. Reagan’s posture, his rhetoric, etc., had nothing States and China is going to be the most critical,” “But let’s examine the Nixon theory,” he to do with their release. When you think of the he said. “If we get that right and China continues said. “So we dropped more ordnance on military actions that Reagan took, you have on a peaceful rise, then we have a partner that is Cambodia and Laos than on Europe in World Grenada—which is hard to argue helped our growing in capability and sharing with us the War II, and yet, ultimately, Nixon withdrew, ability to shape world events, although it was burdens and responsibilities of maintaining an Kissinger went to Paris, and all we left behind good politics for him back home. You have the international order. If China fails; if it is not able was chaos, slaughter, and authoritarian Iran-Contra affair, in which we supported to maintain a trajectory that satisfies its governments that finally, over time, have right-wing paramilitaries and did nothing to population and has to resort to nationalism as an emerged from that hell. When I go to visit enhance our image in Central America, and it organizing principle; if it feels so overwhelmed “With Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, the President meets at the Pentagon with senior Defense those countries, I’m going to be trying to figure wasn’t successful at all.” He reminded me that that it never takes on the responsibilities of a Department, national security advisors and military leadership regarding the campaign against ISIL.” out how we can, today, help them remove Reagan’s great foe, Daniel Ortega, is today the country its size in maintaining the international (Pete Souza / White House) bombs that are still blowing off the legs of little unrepentant president of Nicaragua. order; if it views the world only in terms of kids. In what way did that strategy promote our Obama also cited Reagan’s decision to regional spheres of influence—then not only do interests?” almost immediately pull U.S. forces from “As I survey the we see the potential for conflict with China, but “I’ve been very them overcome those challenges. But in that But what if Putin were threatening to move Lebanon after 241 servicemen were killed in a next 20 years, we will find ourselves having more difficulty explicit in saying environment, the temptation to project against, say, Moldova—another vulnerable Hezbollah attack in 1983. “Apparently all these climate change dealing with these other challenges that are that we have military force to show greatness is strong, post-Soviet state? Wouldn’t it be helpful for things really helped us gain credibility with the going to come.” and that’s what Putin’s inclination is. So I Putin to believe that Obama might get angry Russians and the Chinese,” because “that’s the worries me Many people, I noted, want the president to more to fear don’t underestimate the dangers and irrational about that? narrative that is told,” he said sarcastically. profoundly be more forceful in confronting China, from a there.” Obama returned to a point he had “There is no evidence in modern “Now, I actually think that Ronald Reagan had because of especially in the South China Sea. Hillary weakened, made repeatedly to me, one that he hopes the American foreign policy that that’s how people a great success in foreign policy, which was to the effects that Clinton, for one, has been heard to say in threatened country, and the next president, absorbs: respond. People respond based on what their recognize the opportunity that Gorbachev it has on all the private settings, “I don’t want my China than a “You know, the notion that diplomacy and imperatives are, and if it’s really important to presented and to engage in extensive grandchildren to live in a world dominated by technocrats and bureaucrats somehow are somebody, and it’s not that important to us, diplomacy—which was roundly criticized by other problems the Chinese.” successful, helping to keep America safe and secure, they know that, and we know that,” he said. some of the same people who now use Ronald that we face,” “I’ve been very explicit in saying that we rising China,” most people think, Eh, that’s nonsense. But “There are ways to deter, but it requires you Reagan to promote the notion that we should he said. have more to fear from a weakened, threatened Obama said. it’s true. And by the way, it’s the element of to be very clear ahead of time about what is go around bombing people.” China than a successful, rising China,” Obama American power that the rest of the world worth going to war for and what is not. Now, said. “I think we have to be firm where China’s appreciates unambiguously. When we deploy if there is somebody in this town that would n a conversation at the end of January, I actions are undermining international troops, there’s always a sense on the part of claim that we would consider going to war Iasked the president to describe for me the interests, and if you look at how we’ve operated other countries that, even where necessary, with Russia over Crimea and eastern Ukraine, threats he worries about most as he prepares, in the South China Sea, we have been able to sovereignty is being violated.” they should speak up and be very clear about in the coming months, to hand off power to his mobilize most of Asia to isolate China in ways it. The idea that talking tough or engaging in successor. that have surprised China, frankly, and have ver the past year, John Kerry has visited some military action that is tangential to that “As I survey the next 20 years, climate very much served our interest in strengthening Othe White House regularly to ask Obama particular area is somehow going to influence change worries me profoundly because of the our alliances.” to violate Syria’s sovereignty. On several the decision making of Russia or China is effects that it has on all the other problems A weak, flailing Russia constitutes a occasions, Kerry has asked Obama to launch contrary to all the evidence we have seen over that we face,” he said. “If you start seeing threat as well, though not quite a top-tier missiles at specific regime targets, under the last 50 years.” more severe drought; more significant famine; threat. “Unlike China, they have demographic cover of night, to “send a message” to the Obama went on to say that the belief in the more displacement from the Indian problems, economic structural problems, that regime. The goal, Kerry has said, is not to possibilities of projected toughness is rooted in subcontinent and coastal regions in Africa and would require not only vision but a overthrow Assad but to encourage him, and “mythologies” about Ronald Reagan’s foreign Asia; the continuing problems of scarcity, generation to overcome,” Obama said. “The Iran and Russia, to negotiate peace. When the policy. refugees, poverty, disease—this makes every path that Putin is taking is not going to help Assad alliance has had the upper hand on the

76 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 77 battlefield, as it has these past several thought was a terrible mistake. “They are months, it has shown no inclination to take overextended. They’re bleeding,” he told me. seriously Kerry’s entreaties to negotiate in “And their economy has contracted for three good faith. A few cruise missiles, Kerry has years in a row, drastically.” argued, might concentrate the attention of In recent National Security Council Assad and his backers. “Kerry’s looking like a meetings, Obama’s strategy was occasionally chump with the Russians, because he has no referred to as the “Tom Sawyer approach.” leverage,” a senior administration official told Obama’s view was that if Putin wanted to me. expend his regime’s resources by painting the The U.S. wouldn’t have to claim credit for fence in Syria, the U.S. should let him. By late the attacks, Kerry has told Obama—but Assad winter, though, when it appeared that Russia would surely know the missiles’ return was making advances in its campaign to address. solidify Assad’s rule, the White House began At a National Obama has steadfastly resisted Kerry’s discussing ways to deepen support for the Security Council requests, and seems to have grown impatient rebels, though the president’s ambivalence with his lobbying. Recently, when Kerry about more-extensive engagement remained. meeting held at handed Obama a written outline of new steps In conversations I had with National Security the Pentagon in to bring more pressure to bear on Assad, Council officials over the past couple of December, Obama said, “Oh, another proposal?” months, I sensed a foreboding that an Obama Administration officials have told me that Vice event—another San Bernardino–style attack, President Biden, too, has become frustrated for instance—would compel the United States announced that “With a Russian security guard at left, the President meets with President Putin of Russia on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Antalya, Turkey. National Security with Kerry’s demands for action. He has said to take new and direct action in Syria. For Advisor Susan E. Rice and a Russian interpreter sit alongside the two leaders.” (Pete Souza / White House) no one except privately to the secretary of state, “John, Obama, this would be a nightmare. the secretary of remember Vietnam? Remember how that If there had been no Iraq, no Afghanistan, defense should started?” At a National Security Council and no Libya, Obama told me, he might be Obama’s hesitation to join the battle for “That’s interesting,” he said, bring him meeting held at the Pentagon in December, more apt to take risks in Syria. “A president Syria is held out as proof by his critics that he is noncommittally. proposals for Obama announced that no one except the does not make decisions in a vacuum. He too naive; his decision in 2013 not to fire I started to talk: “Do you—” secretary of defense should bring him does not have a blank slate. Any president missiles is proof, they argue, that he is a bluffer. He interrupted. “I actually would have,” he military action. proposals for military action. Pentagon who was thoughtful, I believe, would This critique frustrates the president. said, meaning that he would have struck Iran’s Pentagon officials understood Obama’s announcement recognize that after over a decade of war, “Nobody remembers bin Laden anymore,” he nuclear facilities. “If I saw them break out.” officials to be a brushback pitch directed at Kerry. with obligations that are still to this day says. “Nobody talks about me ordering 30,000 He added, “Now, the argument that can’t understood One day in January, in Kerry’s office at the requiring great amounts of resources and more troops into Afghanistan.” The red-line be resolved, because it’s entirely situational, Obama’s State Department, I expressed the obvious: He attention in Afghanistan, with the experience crisis, he said, “is the point of the inverted I was reminded was what constitutes them getting” the bomb. has more of a bias toward action than the of Iraq, with the strains that it’s placed on pyramid upon which all other theories rest.” “This was the argument I was having with Bibi announcement president does. our military—any thoughtful president One afternoon in late January, as I was then of Netanyahu.” Netanyahu wanted Obama to to be a “I do, probably,” Kerry acknowledged. would hesitate about making a renewed leaving the Oval Office, I mentioned to Obama a something prevent Iran from being capable of building a brushback pitch “Look, the final say on these things is in his commitment in the exact same region of the moment from an interview in 2012 when he told Derek Chollet, a bomb, not merely from possessing a bomb. directed at hands … I’d say that I think we’ve had a very world with some of the exact same dynamics me that he would not allow Iran to gain former National You were right to believe it,” the president Kerry. symbiotic, synergistic, whatever you call it, and the same probability of an unsatisfactory possession of a nuclear weapon. “You said, ‘I’m Security Council said. And then he made his key point. “This relationship, which works very effectively. outcome.” the president of the United States, I don’t bluff.’ ” was in the category of an American interest.” Because I’ll come in with the bias toward ‘Let’s Are you too cautious?, I asked. He said, “I don’t.” official, told me: I was reminded then of something Derek try to do this, let’s try to do that, let’s get this “No,” he said. “Do I think that had we not Shortly after that interview four years ago, “Obama is a Chollet, a former National Security Council done.’ ” invaded Iraq and were we not still involved in Ehud Barak, who was then the defense minister gambler, not a official, told me: “Obama is a gambler, not a Obama’s caution on Syria has vexed those in sending billions of dollars and a number of of Israel, asked me whether I thought Obama’s bluffer.” bluffer.” the administration who have seen opportunities, military trainers and advisers into Afghanistan, no-bluff promise was itself a bluff. I answered The president has placed some huge bets. at different moments over the past four years, to would I potentially have thought about taking that I found it difficult to imagine that the Last May, as he was trying to move the Iran tilt the battlefield against Assad. Some thought on some additional risk to help try to shape the leader of the United States would bluff about nuclear deal through Congress, I told him that that Putin’s decision to fight on behalf of Assad Syria situation? I don’t know.” something so consequential. But Barak’s the agreement was making me nervous. His would prompt Obama to intensify American What has struck me is that, even as his question had stayed with me. So as I stood in response was telling. “Look, 20 years from efforts to help anti-regime rebels. But Obama, at secretary of state warns about a dire, Syria- the doorway with the president, I asked: “Was now, I’m still going to be around, God willing. least as of this writing, would not be moved, in fueled European apocalypse, Obama has not it a bluff?” I told him that few people now If Iran has a nuclear weapon, it’s my name on part because he believed that it was not his recategorized the country’s civil war as a believe he actually would have attacked Iran to this,” he said. “I think it’s fair to say that in business to stop Russia from making what he top-tier security threat. keep it from getting a nuclear weapon. addition to our profound national-security

78 BUSINESS TODAY JUNE 2016 businesstoday.lk businesstoday.lk JUNE 2016 BUSINESS TODAY 79 interests, I have a personal interest in locking surpassingly important, there would still be little this down.” an American president could do to make it a In the matter of the Syrian regime and its better place. The third is that the innate American Iranian and Russian sponsors, Obama has bet, desire to fix the sorts of problems that manifest and seems prepared to continue betting, that the themselves most drastically in the Middle East price of direct U.S. action would be higher than inevitably leads to warfare, to the deaths of U.S. the price of inaction. And he is sanguine enough soldiers, and to the eventual hemorrhaging of U.S. to live with the perilous ambiguities of his credibility and power. The fourth is that the world decisions. Though in his Nobel Peace Prize cannot afford to see the diminishment of U.S. speech in 2009, Obama said, “Inaction tears at power. Just as the leaders of several American our conscience and can lead to more costly allies have found Obama’s leadership inadequate intervention later,” today the opinions of to the tasks before him, he himself has found humanitarian interventionists do not seem to world leadership wanting: global partners who move him, at least not publicly. He undoubtedly often lack the vision and the will to spend political knows that a next-generation Samantha Power capital in pursuit of broad, progressive goals, and will write critically of his unwillingness to do adversaries who are not, in his mind, as rational more to prevent the continuing slaughter in as he is. Obama believes that history has sides, Syria. (For that matter, Samantha Power will also and that America’s adversaries—and some of its George W. Bush be the subject of criticism from the next putative allies—have situated themselves on the was also a Samantha Power.) As he comes to the end of his wrong one, a place where tribalism, gambler, not a presidency, Obama believes he has done his fundamentalism, sectarianism, and militarism country a large favor by keeping it out of the still flourish. What they don’t understand is that bluffer. He will maelstrom—and he believes, I suspect, that history is bending in his direction. be remembered historians will one day judge him wise for having “The central argument is that by keeping harshly for the done so. America from immersing itself in the crises of things he did in Inside the West Wing, officials say that the Middle East, the foreign-policy the Middle East. Obama, as a president who inherited a financial establishment believes that the president is crisis and two active wars from his predecessor, precipitating our decline,” Ben Rhodes told me. Barack Obama is is keen to leave “a clean barn” to whoever “But the president himself takes the opposite gambling that succeeds him. This is why the fight against ISIS, view, which is that overextension in the Middle he will be a group he considers to be a direct, though not East will ultimately harm our economy, harm judged well for existential, threat to the U.S., is his most urgent our ability to look for other opportunities and the things he priority for the remainder of his presidency; to deal with other challenges, and, most killing the so-called caliph of the Islamic State, important, endanger the lives of American didn’t do. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is one of the top goals of service members for reasons that are not in the the American national-security apparatus in direct American national-security interest.” Obama’s last year. If you are a supporter of the president, his Of course, ISIS was midwifed into strategy makes eminent sense: Double down in existence, in part, by the Assad regime. Yet by those parts of the world where success is Obama’s stringent standards, Assad’s plausible, and limit America’s exposure to the continued rule for the moment still doesn’t rise rest. His critics believe, however, that problems to the level of direct challenge to America’s like those presented by the Middle East don’t national security. solve themselves—that, without American This is what is so controversial about the intervention, they metastasize. president’s approach, and what will be At the moment, Syria, where history controversial for years to come—the standard appears to be bending toward greater chaos, he has used to define what, exactly, constitutes poses the most direct challenge to the a direct threat. president’s worldview. Obama has come to a number of dovetailing George W. Bush was also a gambler, not a conclusions about the world, and about America’s bluffer. He will be remembered harshly for the role in it. The first is that the Middle East is no things he did in the Middle East. Barack Obama longer terribly important to American interests. is gambling that he will be judged well for the The second is that even if the Middle East were things he didn’t do.

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