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Macro Economic Insights

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Macro Economic Insights Macro economic insights RENZO HOEFNAGELS MANAGING DIRECTOR - GLOBAL HEAD OF INTERMODAL FINANCE SHANGHAI MARCH 2017 FIVE THINGS YOU PROBABLY DID NOT KNOW ABOUT ABN AMRO BANK 1. Dutch State Owned Bank 2. 7th Birthday but over 250 years of history Re-established in 2009 Originally established in 1765 3. Worldwide presence Oslo Moscow London Amsterdam Brussels Frankfurt ABN AMRO Chicago Paris Zurich New York Athens Tokyo operates in 30 Dallas countries and Dubai Shanghai Mumbai Hong Kong in all major financial Singapore centres worldwide Sao Paulo Sydney Existing location New location 4. Leading in certain in niche areas Energy Commodities Transportation Energy, Commodities and Transportation Clients - a core sector for ABN AMRO 5. ABN AMRO Algemene Bank Nederland Amsterdam Bank & Rotterdam BankBank What do you think about 2017? A. The global economy will continue to muddle through B. The uncertainties and risk are underestimated in the global economy C. The world economy is going to surprise positively YEAR OF THE RED FIRE ROOSTER Although 2017 is not yet the beginning of a new era, new ideas are just coming into being and demand refinement…. Red Fire Rooster is actually true in the fullest measure. Fury, aggression, pressure, belligerence but along with these – “windows dressing, egoism, despotism” YEAR OF THE RED FIRE ROOSTER This time will be incredibly active and dynamic. It contains quite a few positive moments but significant complex situations as well. ….the rooster strives to take part in any conflict. He loves to criticize and isn’t ashamed to do so. As a whole, 2017 will be successful for business men, athletes and soldiers: in general, for people of action. If you are used to acting first then thinking….then the Red Fire Rooster will appeal to you. YEAR OF THE RED FIRE ROOSTER YEAR OF THE RED FIRE ROOSTER 2016: Year of the Monkey ▪ Monkey is intelligent, optimistic, confident, agile, But…. Also arrogant, suspicious, selfish What happened last year? Who is this? Age/family ◦Over 70 years old ◦Twice divorced, 5 children Known for ◦Being very rich 2016 Forbes ranked him as 188th richest person in the world (US $7.1 Billion) ◦Successful in politics Who is this? ◦“..is famous for his populist style and brash, overbearing personality” (Wikipedia) ◦Known for many legal disputes, being sued ◦Very active and well known in mass media ◦Known for outrageous statements “I am a man who works hard all day long and sometimes I look at some good looking girl, it’s better to be fond of pretty girls than to be gay” November, 2010 Who is this? ◦“..is famous for his populist style and brash, overbearing personality” (Wikipedia) ◦Known for many legal disputes, being sued ◦Very active and well known in mass media ◦Known for outrageous statements “I am a man who works hard all day long and sometimes I look at some good looking girl, it’s better to be fond of pretty girls than to be gay” November, 2010 Who is this? ◦Seen as anti-Muslim “We must be aware of the superiority of our civilization, a system that has guaranteed well-being, respect for human rights and – in contrast with Islamic countries – respect for religious and political rights” April 18th, 2012 Who is this? You guessed it! His first 100 days…… pffff…… What will Trump do? ▪ Tax reduction ▪ Increase infrastructure spending ▪ Encouraging domestic energy production ▪ Less regulation/ less red tape (incl. the financial sector) But also ▪ Protectionism? ▪ International politics? ▪ Immigration? The Wall? What a relief! ▪ Dutch voters do not choose for populism ▪ Opinion polls may give the correct picture ▪ French election coming up ▪ Watch out for Italy! Some encouraging data from Europe Some encouraging data from Europe Fed raises rates Fed: gradual pace in rate hikes ▪ More rate hikes to come: another two expected this year (June and September) and two next year ▪ US economy seems robust o inflation just below 2% o strong labor participation o GDP growth around 2% ▪ However changes to fiscal policy could change the outlook! Encouraging numbers from USA ECB rate hikes? Core inflation still subdued Wage growth is still weak in Europe Will the ECB hike for bond buying ends? ▪ Mario Draghi reiterated that he does not see a situation where rate hikes will occur before bond buying ends…… Pros and cons of ECB rate hike ▪ Negative rates are affecting banks’ profitability. Great for cost of debt but banks hesitant to offer negative deposit rates. ▪ A rate hike will lead to a tightening of financial conditions and a stronger Euro ▪ ECB is expected to reduce bond buying program during the course of next year (2018) followed by deposit rate hike not sooner than March 2019. US Dollar rally over? ▪ US Dollar is struggling ▪ It did not move on stronger economic data ▪ Fed taking it slowly is not supporting a stronger US Dollar ▪ Temporary waves of stronger dollar, but for 2018 we expect the dollar to weaken and start its downturn. All the Fed rate hikes and positives for the US economy have been priced in by then ▪YE 2018 EUR/USD: 1.20 Important information ABN AMRO Group Economics on following website: https://insights.abnamro.nl/en DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed in this document may be subject to change at any given time. Individuals are advised to seek professional guidance prior to making any investments. This material is provided to you for information purposes only and should not be construed as an advice nor as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Before investing in any product of ABN AMRO Bank N.V., you should obtain information on various financial and other risks and any possible restrictions that you and your investments activities may encounter under applicable laws and regulations. If, after reading the presentation, you consider investing in a product, you are advised to discuss such an investment with your relationship manager or personal advisor and check whether this product –considering the risks involved- is appropriate within your investment activities. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is correct but does not accept liability for any misprints. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. reserves the right to make amendments to this material. Please beware of the boisterous rooster And good luck in your ventures this year Thank you for your attention!.
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