Obsolescence Management in the Age of the Circular Economy LIAM WRIGHT, AFTERMARKET ENGINEER PRESENTATION to IIOM – 20TH MAY 2021

Obsolescence Management in the age of the Circular Economy LIAM WRIGHT, AFTERMARKET ENGINEER PRESENTATION TO IIOM – 20TH MAY 2021

 In many high value long term projects more technology is being used than ever before in order to make them faster, better, more economical, more reliable…

 Many Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) solutions have had a reputation for short or poor lifecycle support and obsolescence.

 Consumers are increasingly concerned about the waste of short lived products and are starting to request that products are more durable, reusable and recyclable.

This has lead to the “Circular Economy”, promoted by the Dame Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

Recycle Reuse

It is about the Whole Lifecycle of the product and reducing Environmental Impact In Common with Obsolescence Management

Linear Recycle Circular

iPhone Battery Worn Out Memory Printer Cartridges

NOx Redesign RoHS Service Conflict Minerals Plastics Replace Maintenance Waste

CO2 Repair Ozone Reuse Reduce Overhaul Anti-Counterfeit SVHC Refurbish Reclaim REACH

Pb Free Rare Earth Recycle

Circular Economy Obsolescence Management

 Design with disposal in mind with as little  Monitor and Service/Replenish products to waste as possible maximise life and reliability of products

 Ensure that product lasts as long as  Repair of products to avoid the need to design possible, considering the use of the out obsolete/unobtainable parts product.  Reuse and Refurbishment of products to extend  Avoid use of hazardous and toxic life, capability and reduce cost materials that can be difficult to remove.  Reclaim usable parts to provide serviceable  Repair of products in order to reduce the spares need for replacement  Replace parts if no other option available  Consider Reuse of product in new applications to sustain use  Design out hazardous and toxic materials if needed by legislation or customer requirements  Recycle only when no longer usable

 Planned Obsolescence is not accepted  Avoid unnecessary Redesign

It is possible to consider a common synergy?

Replenish Repair Reuse

Reactivate Redesign Recycle

The Circular Economy looks difficult to comprehend as the resulting output looks Potentially Uncertain.

However the difficulty is really with context and conflict that can be separated.

Not every product has the same lifecycle or the same obsolescence risks.

The impact of the Circular Economy will mean these risks will need to be managed in a comprehensive manner.

Based on IIOM 2019 paper “Managing the Costs of Aftermarket Repairs when Obsolescence has an Impact” by Liam Wright

$ $ $ $ $

Cost likely to Example level Rating increase by order Level Description of magnitude with 5 CPU Change each level 4 PCB respin/redesign 3.5 Link Wires 3 Minor Circuit Change 2 Non-direct alternative 1.5 Repackaged die 1 New Manufacturer 0 Use Existing Stock 0 Last Time Buy

$ Note this does not include: • Component Costs • Manufacturing Costs • Replacement Costs • Procurement Costs

Aspect of product Support

Design Change

Reuse

Repair

Recycle

Redesign

Replenish Reactivate

Design New Product

Major Redesign

Minor Redesign

Alternative Highest to Lowest Cost ofHighest Engineering

New Manufacturer

Potential Risk Management Table Refer to Annex E of IEC 62402:2019

OEM Production Aspect of product Support

Design Change

Reuse

Repair

Design

Recycle

Insertion

Redesign

Replenish

Resolution

Reactivate

Technology Obsolescence

Design New Product

Major Redesign

Minor Redesign

Alternative Highest to Lowest Cost ofHighest Engineering

New Manufacturer

Green = Preferred Amber = Alternative Red = Options to be Grey = Unlikely to Options Options avoided have an impact

Note: Technology Insertion and Redesign could go hand in hand

“STRATEGY WITHOUT TACTICS IS THE SLOWEST ROUTE TO VICTORY. TACTICS WITHOUT STRATEGY IS THE NOISE BEFORE DEFEAT.” Sun Tzu

Obsolescence Management could be the strategic key that opens tactical

Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Sustainable Innovation in the Circular Economy Recyclable Printed Circuit Boards A major UK TV Broadcaster is currently investing in ground breaking new technology for 100% biodegradable PCBs for set top boxes. This removes many of the hazardous chemicals that are used in the manufacture of FR4. By boiling the PCB, some of the electronic components can even be reclaimed and recycled!

Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Modular Smart Phones Fairphone is a Dutch company that is specialising in developing Smartphones that have replaceable modules to extend the product life. It has recently voted as one of the “Coolest” companies to work for in the Netherlands.

captured CO2. This fuel is designed to run on performance cars without modification. The resulting fuel produces significantly less pollution and emissions compared with standard petroleum.

Synthetic Aviation Fuel

Domestic Hydrogen Powered Heating Systems

Biodegradable Plastic Alternatives

Product Repairability Assessments (e.g. iFixit)

Additive (3D) Printing (Reducing Waste and Unnecessary Stock)

Smarter Logistics Systems (incl. Local Manufacture)

Green Bonds (Funding Long Term Investments)

Energy Automation Factories

Standards Logistics People

Software Materials and Chemicals Controls

Plans and Performance Measures Long Term

• Electronic unit used in a High Reliability application • Used in three different applications (called A, B and C) • Replacement unit used in later applications • Unable to source units for spares due to complex circuits • Replacement will not fit applications A and B • Could design new unit – costs too much due to certification (over $20 million)

• Perform a rollover campaign to use replacement unit where possible in application C. • Use removed units as spares to keep applications A & B in service • Monitor obsolescence and reliability in service • Pro-actively resolve obsolescence for parts that can be replaced

Linear Recycle Circular

The answer is most definitely

 Obsolescence Management is a stepping stone from the Linear to Circular Economy  Obsolescence Management Plans will need to deal with the changes in support context throughout the Product Lifecycle

 Some of those changes may not have been thought of during product development

 Reuse of product may itself highlight new opportunities that have different Obsolescence Risks

 Circular Economy moves Obsolescence Management from “Complicated to Complex”  Sometimes, product updates may be developed to overcome Obsolescence to reduce Environmental Impact

 e.g. Synthetic Aviation Fuel (SAF)

Planned or Unintended Obsolescence? iPhone Battery https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/18/21573710/apple-battery-gate-throttle- iphones-settlement-amount

Tesla Memory https://uk.pcmag.com/cars-auto/130984/tesla-asked-to-recall-158000-vehicles-over- flash-memory-failure

Printer Cartridges https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/information- technology/article/22024831/apple-epson-face-french-legal-pressure-over-planned- obsolescence

Lithium Battery Recycling https://uk.news.yahoo.com/britain-not-set-recycling-car-143901745.html

Planned or Unintended Obsolescence? “O” Series Engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BL_O-series_engine

Light Bulbs https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160612-heres-the-truth-about-the-planned- obsolescence-of-tech

There are opportunities from Obsolescence Management in a Circular Economy

Bio-degradable PCBs https://www.jivamaterials.com/

Fairphone https://www.fairphone.com/en/

There are opportunities from Obsolescence Management in a Circular Economy Synthetic Fuel for performance cars https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news-environment/porsche-begin- producing-synthetic-fuels-2022

Synthetic Aviation Fuel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49725741

Domestic Hydrogen Powered Heating Systems https://www.boilerguide.co.uk/articles/hydrogen-boilers-alternative-gas-central- heating

Biodegradable Plastic Alternatives https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioplastic https://www.azocleantech.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=1161 Arboform – otherwise known as liquid wood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arboform

There are opportunities from Obsolescence Management in a Circular Economy Product Repairability Assessments https://www.ifixit.com/News/35879/repairability-standard-en45554 European standard EN45554 https://www.cenelec.eu/dyn/www/f?p=104:110:924201645141701::::FSP_ORG_ID,FSP_ PROJECT,FSP_LANG_ID:2240017,65685,25

Additive (3D) Printing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/eos-to-represent-3d-printing-sector-as-part-of-50- sustainability-and-climate-leaders-initiative-188894/

Smarter Logistics Systems https://oecd-development-matters.org/2020/04/27/localisation-of-production-covid- 19s-medium-term-impact/ https://www.memuk.org/technology/how-made-smarter-manufacturers-are-using- technology-to-save-pounds-and-the-planet-60542

There are opportunities from Obsolescence Management in a Circular Economy Green Bonds https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/green-bond.asp https://www.ft.com/content/021329aa-b0bd-4183-8559-0f3260b73d62 https://www.climatebonds.net/2021/03/uk-announces-debut-sovereign-green-bonds- ignite-britains-market

Reference Material/Standards IEC 62402:2019 (BS EN 62402:2019) Obsolescence Management International Electrotechnical Committee https://www.iec.ch/homepage

Electronic products and obsolescence in a circular economy Eionet Report - ETC/WMGE 2020/3 https://www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/etc-wmge/products/electronics-and- obsolescence-in-a-circular-economy

iFixit https://www.ifixit.com/

Abbreviations COTS – Commercial Off The Shelf

CO2 – Carbon Dioxide CPU – Central Processing Unit PCB – Printed Circuit Board SAF – Synthetic Aviation Fuel

Legislation and Class Actions Battery Throttling cost Apple $500 million in USA

Perception of Poor Product Support Speaker manufacturer Sonos backtracked on stopping support of older speakers

Reliance on Semiconductor business that is expense: New Fab - $25 Billion (US) Lithography machine for new Fab - $300 million (US)

Unnecessary redesign in High Reliability Applications Software changes – Requires verification Material changes – Requires performance testing

Expense of maintaining manufacturing facilities for Aftermarket Spares Refurbishment and Reuse of surplus items may allow assets to be used for longer