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Obsolescence Management in the Age of the Circular Economy LIAM WRIGHT, AFTERMARKET ENGINEER PRESENTATION to IIOM – 20TH MAY 2021

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Obsolescence Management in the Age of the Circular Economy LIAM WRIGHT, AFTERMARKET ENGINEER PRESENTATION to IIOM – 20TH MAY 2021 Obsolescence Management in the age of the Circular Economy LIAM WRIGHT, AFTERMARKET ENGINEER PRESENTATION TO IIOM – 20TH MAY 2021 Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 The Background In many high value long term projects more technology is being used than ever before in order to make them faster, better, more economical, more reliable… Many Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) solutions have had a reputation for short or poor lifecycle support and obsolescence. Consumers are increasingly concerned about the waste of short lived products and are starting to request that products are more durable, reusable and recyclable. This has lead to the “Circular Economy”, promoted by the Dame Ellen MacArthur Foundation. Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Only 25% of UK Population understand the concept of the Circular Economy Reduce Recycle Reuse It is about the Whole Lifecycle of the product and reducing Environmental Impact In Common with Obsolescence Management But the process is not linear… Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Linear, Recycle or Circular? Linear Recycle Circular Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 But what about Planned and Unintended Obsolescence? Planned or Unintended Obsolescence? iPhone Battery Worn Out Memory Printer Cartridges Lithium Battery Car Engines Light Bulbs Recycling Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 So how do we use Obsolescence Management to encourage the Circular Economy? NOx Redesign RoHS Service Conflict Minerals Plastics Replace Maintenance Waste CO2 Repair Ozone Reuse Reduce Overhaul Anti-Counterfeit SVHC Refurbish Reclaim REACH Pb Free Rare Earth Recycle Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Simple Solution – Let’s find common ground Circular Economy Obsolescence Management Design with disposal in mind with as little Monitor and Service/Replenish products to waste as possible maximise life and reliability of products Ensure that product lasts as long as Repair of products to avoid the need to design possible, considering the use of the out obsolete/unobtainable parts product. Reuse and Refurbishment of products to extend Avoid use of hazardous and toxic life, capability and reduce cost materials that can be difficult to remove. Reclaim usable parts to provide serviceable Repair of products in order to reduce the spares need for replacement Replace parts if no other option available Consider Reuse of product in new applications to sustain use Design out hazardous and toxic materials if needed by legislation or customer requirements Recycle only when no longer usable Planned Obsolescence is not accepted Avoid unnecessary Redesign It is possible to consider a common synergy? Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Could the Obsolescence Management future be in the following six “R”s? Replenish Repair Reuse Reactivate Redesign Recycle Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Aligning Obsolescence Modelling The Circular Economy looks difficult to comprehend as the resulting output looks Potentially Uncertain. However the difficulty is really with context and conflict that can be separated. Not every product has the same lifecycle or the same obsolescence risks. The impact of the Circular Economy will mean these risks will need to be managed in a comprehensive manner. There is a really good idea on how this can be measured… Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 The engineering cost of resolving Obsolescence Based on IIOM 2019 paper “Managing the Costs of Aftermarket Repairs when Obsolescence has an Impact” by Liam Wright $ $ $ $ $ Cost likely to Example level Rating increase by order Level Description of magnitude with 5 CPU Change each level 4 PCB respin/redesign 3.5 Link Wires 3 Minor Circuit Change 2 Non-direct alternative 1.5 Repackaged die 1 New Manufacturer 0 Use Existing Stock 0 Last Time Buy $ Note this does not include: • Component Costs • Manufacturing Costs • Replacement Costs • Procurement Costs Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 How could the Obsolescence Risk be Managed as a result? Probably by breaking down the Obsolescence Risks into manageable Matrix Table Aspect of product Support Design Change Reuse Repair Recycle Redesign Replenish Reactivate Design New Product Major Redesign Minor Redesign Alternative Highest to Lowest Cost ofHighest Engineering New Manufacturer Potential Risk Management Table Refer to Annex E of IEC 62402:2019 Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 How could this be integrated Full Lifecycle Product Obsolescence Management? Visual Management could be used like shown in the table below: OEM Production Aspect of product Support Design Change Reuse Repair Design Recycle Insertion Redesign Replenish Resolution Reactivate Technology Obsolescence Design New Product Major Redesign Minor Redesign Alternative Highest to Lowest Cost ofHighest Engineering New Manufacturer Green = Preferred Amber = Alternative Red = Options to be Grey = Unlikely to Options Options avoided have an impact Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 How could this be integrated Full Lifecycle Product Obsolescence Management? Visual Management could be used like shown in the table below: Note: Technology Insertion and Redesign could go hand in hand This could allow Obsolescence Management into Sustainability Leadership… Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 There are opportunities from Obsolescence Management in a Circular Economy “STRATEGY WITHOUT TACTICS IS THE SLOWEST ROUTE TO VICTORY. TACTICS WITHOUT STRATEGY IS THE NOISE BEFORE DEFEAT.” Sun Tzu Obsolescence Management could be the strategic key that opens tactical Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Sustainable Innovation in the Circular Economy Recyclable Printed Circuit Boards A major UK TV Broadcaster is currently investing in ground breaking new technology for 100% biodegradable PCBs for set top boxes. This removes many of the hazardous chemicals that are used in the manufacture of FR4. By boiling the PCB, some of the electronic components can even be reclaimed and recycled! Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Modular Smart Phones Fairphone is a Dutch company that is specialising in developing Smartphones that have replaceable modules to extend the product life. It has recently voted as one of the “Coolest” companies to work for in the Netherlands. Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Synthetic Fuel for performance cars Porsche are currently working with ExxonMobile to develop a synthetic fuel based on captured CO2. This fuel is designed to run on performance cars without modification. The resulting fuel produces significantly less pollution and emissions compared with standard petroleum. Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Other Innovations Supporting the Circular Economy Synthetic Aviation Fuel Domestic Hydrogen Powered Heating Systems Biodegradable Plastic Alternatives Product Repairability Assessments (e.g. iFixit) Additive (3D) Printing (Reducing Waste and Unnecessary Stock) Smarter Logistics Systems (incl. Local Manufacture) Green Bonds (Funding Long Term Investments) Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 There are lots of areas where Obsolescence Management will be important in Sustainable Innovation Energy Automation Factories Standards Logistics People Software Materials and Chemicals Controls Plans and Performance Measures Long Term Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Checklists Investment Case Study – Obsolete Electronic Unit • Electronic unit used in a High Reliability application • Used in three different applications (called A, B and C) • Replacement unit used in later applications • Unable to source units for spares due to complex circuits • Replacement will not fit applications A and B • Could design new unit – costs too much due to certification (over $20 million) • Perform a rollover campaign to use replacement unit where possible in application C. • Use removed units as spares to keep applications A & B in service • Monitor obsolescence and reliability in service • Pro-actively resolve obsolescence for parts that can be replaced Result: Maximise reuse of existing product Remove need to spend $20 million+ on developing a new product Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Is Obsolescence Management the Key to Sustainability? Linear Recycle Circular The answer is most definitely Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 In Conclusion Obsolescence Management is a stepping stone from the Linear to Circular Economy Obsolescence Management Plans will need to deal with the changes in support context throughout the Product Lifecycle Some of those changes may not have been thought of during product development Reuse of product may itself highlight new opportunities that have different Obsolescence Risks Circular Economy moves Obsolescence Management from “Complicated to Complex” Sometimes, product updates may be developed to overcome Obsolescence to reduce Environmental Impact e.g. Synthetic Aviation Fuel (SAF) Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Email: [email protected] LinkedIn Phone: +44(0)7964 873 351 Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Supporting Data Planned or Unintended Obsolescence? iPhone Battery https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/18/21573710/apple-battery-gate-throttle- iphones-settlement-amount Tesla Memory https://uk.pcmag.com/cars-auto/130984/tesla-asked-to-recall-158000-vehicles-over- flash-memory-failure Printer Cartridges https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/information- technology/article/22024831/apple-epson-face-french-legal-pressure-over-planned- obsolescence Lithium Battery Recycling https://uk.news.yahoo.com/britain-not-set-recycling-car-143901745.html Copyright © Liam Wright 2021 Supporting Data Planned or Unintended Obsolescence? “O” Series Engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BL_O-series_engine Light Bulbs https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160612-heres-the-truth-about-the-planned-
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