No. 505 January 5, 2004 Can Iraq Be Democratic? by Patrick Basham Executive Summary Is Iraq capable of moving smoothly from dic- The building blocks are not elections, parties, tatorship to democracy? This paper contends and legislatures. Rather, the building blocks of that the White House will be gravely disappoint- democracy are supportive cultural values—the ed with the result of its effort to establish a sta- long-term survival of democratic institutions ble liberal democracy in Iraq, or any other nation requires a particular political culture. home to a large population of Muslims or Arabs, Four cultural factors play an essential, collec- at least in the short to medium term. tive role in stimulating and reinforcing a stable Why are Islamic (and especially Arab) coun- democratic political system. The first is political tries’ democratic prospects so poor? After all, in trust. The second factor is social tolerance. The most Muslim countries a high level of popular third is a widespread recognition of the impor- support exists for the concept of democracy. In tance of basic political liberties. The fourth is practice, popular support for democracy is a nec- popular support for gender equality. essary, but is not a sufficient, condition for Paradoxically, a more democratic Iraq may democratic institutions to emerge. Other factors also be a repressive one. It is one thing to adopt are necessary. Hypothetical support for represen- formal democracy but quite another to attain tative government, absent tangible support for stable democracy. A successful democracy can- liberal political norms and values and without not be legislated. The White House is placing a the foundation of a pluralistic civil society, pro- very large political wager that the formation of vides neither sufficient stimulus nor staying democratic institutions in Iraq can stimulate a power for democracy to take root. That reality democratic political culture. was borne out over the past generation in On the contrary, political culture shapes numerous countries where authoritarian re- democracy far more than democracy shapes gimes were displaced by newly democratic political culture. Therefore, the American gov- regimes but democratization failed because of ernment may need to compromise its democrat- shallow foundations. ic ideals with a healthy dose of pragmatism. The building blocks of a modern democratic Democracy is an evolutionary development political culture are not institutional in nature. rather than an overnight phenomenon. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Patrick Basham is a senior fellow with the Center for Representative Government of the Cato Institute. The White House Introduction $250 million on civic education programs to will be gravely foster and promote democracy in the Middle Is Iraq capable of moving smoothly from East, with negligible impact.11 disappointed with dictatorship to democracy? On September 23, As Jonathan D. Tepperman, a Foreign the results of 2003, President George W. Bush proclaimed Affairs senior editor, recounts, “Islamists have that “Iraq as a democracy will have great proven unreliable protectors of pluralism.”12 its effort to 1 power to inspire the Middle East.” That The UN Arab Human Development Report 2002 establish a stable assertion stems from the president’s notion constitutes a devastating critique of the “free- democracy in that a democratic Iraq is a likely prospect and dom deficit” in the Middle East. In this that a democratic Iraq will serve as a model recent study, 30 Arab economists, sociolo- Iraq. throughout the Arab world, something of a gists, and other scholars dissect an Arab democratic domino, in fact.2 The official world that trails most of its international American effort to spread democracy to Iraq peers in economic development, civil liber- and implement democratic governance pro- ties, and gender equality.13 Fareed Zakaria, grams around the world has four principal Newsweek International editor, recently noted objectives: to strengthen the rule of law and that the authoritarian leaders who rule many respect for human rights, to develop open Arab and Muslim countries are, ironically, and competitive political processes, to foster more liberal than the citizenry they lead.14 the development of a politically active civil Ziad Abdelnour, copublisher of the Middle society, and to promote more transparent and East Intelligence Bulletin, argues that democra- accountable government institutions.3 cy is such a foreign concept in the Arab world This paper contends that the White that, to occur, it will have to be imposed from House will be gravely disappointed with the the top down.15 Hence, the view expressed by results of its effort to establish a stable The Economist: “Across the region, including democracy in Iraq.4 Why should one be pes- Iraq, the Islamist trend remains the one most simistic? Today, 1.3 billion people live in the likely to succeed in open elections.”16 46 countries where Islam is the dominant or It is very hard to be optimistic about the state religion. Freedom House estimates that chances of Iraq, specifically, establishing a sta- a non-Islamic country is three times more ble liberal democratic political system, at least likely than an Islamic country to be demo- in the short to medium term. Such pessimism cratic.5 Within the Islamic world, Arab coun- stems from an appreciation of, first, Iraqi his- tries’ problems seem particularly pro- tory and, second, what causes democracy to nounced. According to political scientist flourish in a society. Phebe Marr, author of The Larry Diamond, an expert on the spread of Modern History of Iraq,17 reminds us of a stub- democratic movements, “Only in the Middle born fact: “Iraq has never had a genuine East is democracy virtually absent.”6 The democracy in its modern history.”18 Since its Middle East is the only region of the world establishment by the British in the 1920s, Iraq where the average level of political freedom has witnessed the rise and fall of successive declined over the past generation.7 In a recent brutal authoritarian regimes, competing ruth- survey of the prospects for Arab democratic lessly for power and resources.19 reform, The Economist noted that “Arab polit- What type of political system qualifies as a ical systems have, almost universally, failed to democracy? Political scientist Valerie Bunce generate accountable, clean or competent informs us that “the experiences of democra- government.”8 According to Freedom House, tization over the past 25 years suggest that a of Middle Eastern countries, only Israel and precise definition providing analytical lever- Turkey are electoral democracies;9 not one of age is one that treats democracy as a regime the 16 Arab countries qualifies as an electoral combining three characteristics: freedom, democracy.10 Revealingly, during the past uncertain results, and certain procedures.”20 decade the United States spent more than Here, freedom refers not only to “the full 2 array of civil liberties and political rights . Inglehart, an expert on political culture and but also [to] how the community is defined, democratic values, studied 21 years (1981– that is, whether liberties and rights are avail- 2002) of responses to the World Values able irrespective of social status, national Survey,29 which measures the values and beliefs identification, gender, and the like.”21 of people in 70 countries, from established According to Bunce, “uncertain results” do democracies to authoritarian dictatorships, not refer simply to “whether politics is compet- including 10 Islamic nations, representing itive, but also whether competition is institu- more than 75 percent of the world’s popula- tionalized through political parties that offer tion.30 Inglehart analyzed the relationship ideological choice and have the incentives and between each society’s survey responses and capacity to connect government and governed; each society’s level of democracy, as measured whether elections are regularly held, free and by Freedom House. Inglehart concludes that fair, and select those elites who actually shape the prospects for democracy in any Islamic public policy; and whether governing man- country are particularly poor.31 dates are provisional.”22 Finally, procedural cer- Why are Islamic countries’ democratic tainty “refers to rule of law; the control of elect- prospects so poor? After all, in most Muslim ed officials over the bureaucracy; and a legal countries a high level of popular support and administrative order that is hegemonic exists for the concept of democracy.32 Eighty- The prospects and transparent, commands compliance, and seven percent of the people in Muslim coun- for democracy is consistent in its operation across time, cir- tries believe democracy is problematic but in any Islamic cumstances, and space.”23 better than any other form of government.33 A global expansion of democracy took place It appears, though, that popular support for country are over the past three decades, most notably in democracy is insufficient. In fact, individual- particularly Europe, Latin America, and East Asia. That level lip service to democracy is only weakly 34 poor. development was known as the “Third Wave” related to a truly democratic society. of democratization.24 Yet, as Middle Eastern Inglehart and fellow political scientist scholar Martin Kramer observes, “In an era of Christian Welzel report, “At this point in his- democratization, these