Albania and Nato

ALBANIA AND NATO

WHY WE DO NEED NATO?

Tirana 2008

This study was made possible through the financial support of the Public Affairs Section – American Embassy in Tirana.

Analyses and Writing Maklen Misha

Data Processing Dr. Guven Guneren

Editor Dr. Albert Rakipi

Research and Data Entry Dori Hyseni, Marsida Gjocaj, Alba Çela

Translation Dori Hyseni

ALBANIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (AIIS) Rr. “Dëshmorët e 4 Shkurtit”, Nr. 7/1 Tirana., Albania Tel. +355 42 488 53 Fax +355 4 270 337 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.aiis-albania.org

Acknowledgments

The Albanian Institute for International Studies is grateful to the American Embassy, whose support in the implementation of this survey is gratefully acknowledged.

INTRODUCTION

Few issues interest the Albanians more than their country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. However, while accession to the EU must for the moment, remains a distant dream, in recent months expectations have been raised that Albania might receive an invitation to join NATO in the Summit of Bucharest due in April 2008. Several ministers have made declarations to that effect and the media has been quite active in discussing the possibility, too. If this indeed proves to be the case, it would be hard to explain the sense of accomplishment Albanians would feel at the realization of their dream.

However, although the common belief is that the majority of the Albanians would support the integration of their country into NATO, no proper survey was conducted to date. Furthermore, while one can get a feeling of the existing support, it is difficult to ascertain the level of information the Albanians posses on NATO and their country’s membership process.

Several surveys conducted by the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS) on the perceptions and realities of the Albanians towards the European Union and the European integration process revealed overwhelming support for Albania’s EU membership, but at the same time serious lack of understanding on the EU, on the scope of the process, its costs and potential benefits.

Because of the proximity of the Summit of Bucharest and the expectations that prevail in Albania concerning its possible invitation to join NATO in July 2007, AIIS decided to conduct a survey with four elite groups of the Albanian society. These groups are involved in the integration process more actively and directly than the ordinary Albanians are. The rationale behind the choice of target groups was based on the belief that these groups because of their position in society and their ability to influence decision-making. Therefore, it is interesting to ascertain the level of expertise that they possess on the NATO integration process. Because these groups, by their very nature, play a primary role in shaping the attitudes and beliefs of the public as a whole, by shaping attitudes one can also expect to gain a sense of what the public as a whole thinks of these issues. With these objectives in mind, the AIIS compiled a 36-question questionnaire and conducted interviews with 450 respondents from the public administration, military, media and civil society.

4 Executive Summary

The survey shows that support for Albania’s NATO accession is very high for the general sample. Thus 91.3% would vote in favour of Albania joining NATO if a hypothetical referendum were to be held on the morrow of the day the survey was conducted. The percentages vary for each of the categories with a high of 94.6% of yes voters in the military and a low of 86.8% in the civil society. Civil society also had the highest percentage of undecided voters with 12.1% responding that they do not know how they would vote. Nevertheless only, a meagre 1.8% of the general sample responded that they were against Albania joining NATO. The responses were somewhat less enthusiastic when it came to the importance of Albania’s NATO membership. Only 62.3% responded that they deemed this very important, while a further 31.3% evaluated NATO membership to be important but not a priority. A small percentage of 2% replied that they did not find it important at all. Once again, the military was the group that had the highest percentage of very important answers with 76.1%, while civil society had the highest percentage of not important at all with 3.3% of the vote. As we see, civil society leads the group of sceptics although one can hardly conclude from these figures that there is any real opposition to NATO membership. However, these figures could be indicative of the beginning of scepticism or even opposition to NATO membership.

A majority of respondents associate NATO membership primarily with improved national security for Albania. Thus, the single highest percentage of respondents for the general sample, or 34.8% claimed that improved national security was the main reason why they would vote in favour of NATO membership. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the military assigned the greatest importance to this reason for supporting NATO membership with 40.7%. Nevertheless the reasons fro supporting Albania’s NATO integration were by no means confined to a desire for better security. The respondents revealed that they are aware that Albania has much more to gain from joining NATO than a sense of security. Thus 25.4% of the general sample would have voted yes in the hope that NATO membership would strengthen democracy and the rule of law in Albania. Given the repeated emphasis that NATO and NATO member states have placed on reforms associated with the strengthening of democratic institutions and the rule of law it was to be expected that the respondents would associate NATO membership with an improvement and consolidation in these areas. The third most important reason with 23% of the vote, which was a favourite especially with the media and civil society, was the belief that being accepted into NATO would amount to a recognition and confirmation of Albania’s Western values. Indeed this can be said to have been one of the main motivations behind the enthusiasm with which Albanians have embraced Euro-Atlantic integration. Further confirmation for this interpretation can be found in the fact that confirmation of Albania’s Western values was deemed to be the second most important benefit Albanians expect to gain from NATO membership after the improvement of national security to which 41.3% of the general sample assigned a grade of 10 in a scale of 1 – 10.

The respondents appear willing to pay most of the costs associated with NATO integration. Thus 79.2% were in support of increasing military spending to 2% of the state budget as opposed to 9.2% who were against the budget increase. On the issue of financing troop deployments, the support was somewhat lower with 74.9% in favour and 12.9% against. Nevertheless, it is clear that the respondents are willing to pay the financial costs for NATO membership although the figures

5 involved, although modest by NATO standards, amount to quite a burden for a small and not developed economy such as Albania. The support is somewhat smaller when it comes to the physical danger in which Albanian troops would find themselves deployed in NATO missions with 51.6% supporting them and 31.9% against the deployment. This is quite an important figure that shows that the Albanian public is quite sensitive to the “body-bag” phenomenon and that they appear reluctant to place their troops in harm’s way. It is also important as to date no surveys of this nature have been undertaken in order to evaluate the support or opposition to deploying troops in conflict areas such as Afghanistan or Iraq. Another cost the respondents appear not so willing to pay relates to the downsizing of Albania’s military. 52.7% support such a development while 30.4% are against while 12% are undecided. There are two possible interpretations for this result. On the one hand, the reluctance to downsize the Albanian military may relate to concerns about security, although such an interpretation appears less likely if one considers that respondents expect NATO membership to improve security. The other and more probable explanation relates to the social costs of such a development. In the recent months, Albania has witnessed several, albeit small scale, demonstrations by former military personnel who have lost their jobs as the result of the reforms. It is perhaps this concern that explains why this cost associated to NATO integration was especially unpopular with the military. Only 48.9% of them were willing to pay this cost while 41.3% were against it, the highest opposition from any of the groups.

While the levels of support for NATO integration are quite high, the responses to the question whether Albania is ready to join NATO give cause for caution. Although the single largest group of respondents or 43.5% believed that to be the case, the percentage was lower than half the general sample. The percentage of sceptics was also quite high with 38.2% replying No. The percentage of respondents who did not know was also quite high standing at 18.3%. Public administration was by far the most optimistic of the groups with 58.9% answering yes. This figure however should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt. In the wake of the rotation of power following the elections of July 2005, the right wing government replaced much of the existing public administration with its own supporters. It would thus make sense to err on the side of caution when looking at these results as the public administration, now as always, can hardly be expected to be an impartial judge of progress and improvements in the country. In the case of the military on the other hand, 57.6% of them also deemed Albania to be ready the explanation is probably somewhat different. The Albanian military has indeed made progress in NATO relates reforms and as even NATO representatives have pointed out the greatest obstacles to Albania’s integration do not so much relate to the state of the military as to political or economic reasons. It is also striking that positive opinion among the media group was much lower standing at 35.2% while in the case of civil society the percentage shrunk to a very meagre 18.7%. Although these two groups have shown a serious lack of information on NATO related issues, they are generally quite well informed on domestic issues and on the pace of reforms in Albania. The fact that such a small percentage of civil society – one of whose main functions is precisely to monitor the pace of progress in the country – believes the country to be ready shows that Albania is probably not where it should be if it wants to qualify for NATO membership.

Civil society is also the most sceptical of the groups when it comes to evaluating the progress made in the last two years. Only 11% of this group was of the opinion that a lot of progress has been made and a further 46.2% responded that some progress has been made. However, 34.1% believe that little progress has been made. For the general sample however 31% believe that a lot of progress has been made and a further 44.5% respondent that Albania has made some progress. In the cased of the

6 military, once again positive replies outscored the other groups with a full 51.1% replying that a lot of progress has been made. Once again, it seems that the military is judging the pace of reforms based on their own experience within Albania’s armed forces. Nevertheless, the positive opinion the respondents hold on the progress of their country received further confirmation when the respondents were asked to compare Albania’s progress to that of other neighbouring countries. Thus although a majority recognized the fact that Croatia is far more progressed than Albania, in all other cases they believed that their country had made better progress.

After having evaluated the opinions on the progress of Albania, the next logical step was to ascertain what the respondents understood progress to consist of and what importance they assigned to various factors. Unsurprisingly the military was deemed the most important area where the country should focus its efforts at reform. 42.3% judged this to be the most important factor and 45.5% of the respondents assigned this factor a 10 in a range of 1 – 10. Significantly, politics received the second highest percentage of 10s with 43.1% of the vote followed by failure of rule of law with 35% and the need for free and fair elections with 34.6% granting it a 10. Religion on the other hand was deemed the least important of all the factors.

Whatever the views on the progress of their country, a majority of respondents believes that NATO should accept Albania even if not ready. Thus 58.3% responded positively to this question and only 23.4% believed this should not happen. A further 18.3% were undecided. The percentages were highest among the military and public administration with respectively 68.5% and 64.4% responding positively while even in the case of the media that had the lowest percentage of positive replies more than half the group or 50.4% replied positively. One the one hand one can interpret these figures as being indicative of a desire to join NATO at all costs. If one keeps in mind, the rather positive opinions of the respondents on the scale of progress Albania has made it would appear that they expect NATO to meet them halfway and close an eye to any shortcomings as a reward for the progress made and the will shown to undertake the reforms. On the other hand, the results speak of a worrying lack of local ownership of the process, as the respondents seem to believe that the integration process starts with NATO and ends with Albania. If NATO only wished, it could easily accept Albania whatever its condition, seems to be the prevailing opinion.

When one considers the previous results, it becomes somewhat difficult to find the reasons behind the expectations of the respondents concerning the potential year of accession for Albania. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of respondents are quite optimistic concerning the year of membership, with more than three quarters of them expecting that to take place at the latest by 2010. Thus, the single largest group standing at 35% believes 2010 to be the likeliest year. The second highest percentage standing at 29.5% believes this will happen in 2008. This group however seems to be suffering from a misunderstanding. At the Summit of Bucharest in 2008, Albania hopes to receive an invitation into NATO, but in itself this would not amount to NATO membership and Albania would have to wait for some time yet before actual membership. It is hard to say whether the expectations of the respondents were shaped by their trust in the progress made by Albania or due to some naive belief that NATO will grant Albania membership even if the country is not ready.

7 The last area where the AIIS focused in its survey concerned the information the respondents had on NATO. The results revealed a worrying picture. Only the military could be said to possess satisfying levels of information on NATO with 62% responding that they did posses adequate information. In the case of public society, the difference was much narrower with 43.8% responding positively as opposed to 41.8% responding that they did not posses adequate information. The most surprising results of all concerned the media and civil society where only a meagre 15.4% of respondents said that they possessed adequate information. The fact that the groups that are supposed to play a very important monitoring and informing role in society had such poor levels of information was in itself a cause for concern. What made matters even worse however was the fact that for all four groups a majority of over 85% responded that they could find information on NATO if they so wished!

8 Recommendations

The report reveals that Albania’s NATO integration enjoys very high levels of support among the four groups surveyed. All four groups think of NATO integration as being either very important of important and an overwhelming majority would vote positively in a hypothetical referendum on the issue. The respondents show quite a mature evaluation of the benefits they expect to gain from membership stressing the security aspect but not neglecting other important areas such as improvements in democracy and confirmation of Western values. Nevertheless, the report also reveals that serious misunderstandings and lack of information do exist even among four groups that are supposed to be some of the best informed in Albania. Furthermore, there appears to be a serious lack of local ownership in the process of integration. The results give rise to a number of recommendations for all the actors involved in the survey as well as for the Albanian government and NATO.

In the first place, the high levels of support for NATO membership and the high importance respondents place on membership provide the Albanian government with a number of opportunities: - The government should utilize the support in order to undertake and implement the needed reforms, which can be painful and encounter opposition. The fact that such high percentages of these groups support NATO membership is indicative of the broader popular support that NATO integration enjoys. Furthermore, these groups are precisely the most affected and whose support is vital in order to complete the judicial, military and electoral reforms. Thus, their support gives a quite significant leverage to the government. - The survey reveals that although supportive of Albanian troop deployments abroad, there is significant opposition on the part of these groups. The government should be cautious in not taking their support for granted when placing the lives of Albanian soldiers in peril as such developments might cause support for NATO integration to vane. - The government is correctly considered to bear the greatest responsibility for NATO related reforms, thus making any evaluation of the current state of reforms an evaluation of the work of the government as a whole. The fact that the respondents believe that politics, the rule of law, and the electoral system should be improved should serve as a note of caution to the government on what is expected from it and in what directions its efforts should be focused.

The report reveals serious lack of information on NATO and the integration process on the part of significant percentage of respondents. Misconceptions and misunderstandings persist and the information is lacking on the conditions and reforms needed to take the country into NATO. Given the position of these groups and the public role, they are supposed to play in keeping society as a whole informed on NATO integration issues this situation is unacceptable and cannot continue much longer. Therefore, it becomes imperative for these groups to: Civil society and media should make an effort to gain a better understanding of NATO and the integration process. The fact that such overwhelming percentages of all groups do not posses adequate information on NATO although they could do so if they wished is inexcusable. Ignorance of these issues is bound to reflect in the public, which relies on them for information, thus making it imperative that they improve their levels of information.

9 The government should reach out to these groups and through them to all citizens through information campaigns designed to explain and elucidate the different aspects of the integration process and of what NATO membership entails.

Do more to establish local ownership of the process. Such a step is needed if the government wants to enjoy the support of these groups in the painful reforms it needs to undertake. Explain their costs and benefits and invite them to participate because they have a right to.

The government should not abdicate from its responsibilities in keeping the public informed. It has become clear from the responses to the survey that the overwhelming majority of respondents hold the government responsible for informing them and that misunderstandings on the nature of NATO and the integration process persist.

Cooperate with local authorities, the media, schools, businesses in organizing ways of informing the public through public awareness campaigns, TV programs and documentaries, publications, translations, lectures and workshops in Tirana and in other regions of the country.

Carry out studies, surveys, analysis on the different aspects of the integration process, and the reforms Albania need to undertake, and disseminate such information to the public at large.

NATO representatives in Albania should raise its profile and become more accessible and active in providing information on the integration process. The study showed that thus far this institution has not play a significant played a role in informing the Albanian public.

Sample Description

General Sample

As can be seen from figure 1 the general sample reflects a rough equilibrium between males and females, although males are slightly better represented. Thus 50.4%f the sample or 226 respondents were males, 47.5% or 213 were female while the gender of 9 respondents was not ascertained.

Figure 1. Gender distribution of the responders

No. Sex Percent responder

MALE 226 50.4

FEMALE 213 47.5

Not verified 9 2.0

Total 448 100.0

The single largest group of respondents, 146 or 32.6% of them came from the public administration, followed by respondents employed in the military forces who represented the second largest group with 92 respondents or 20.5% of the sample. This group was followed closely by two groups of equal size representing the media and civil society constituting 20.3% of the sample or 91 respondents each. The remaining 24 respondents came from various other employment backgrounds such as teachers.

Figure 2. Place of Employment

20 Percent

0 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs Media Military Forces Other and Academia) Q2_Place of Employment

Due to their professional backgrounds, it comes as no surprise that the overwhelming majority of the respondents are well educated. Thus, only 2.2% of the sample or a mere 10 respondents had not completed university studies. The single largest group, 65.2% had completed their university studies while a considerable portion of 31.5% has also completed postgraduate studies.

Figure 3. Education levels

Q3_Education Level

40 Percent

0 Middle School High School University Postgraduate Q3_Education Level

As for the age of the sample the single largest group, 40.8% were between 26 and 35 years of age, followed by respondents between 36 and 55 years of age who represented the second largest group standing at 35.7%. 17.6% were between 18 and 25 years old while only 5.1% were older than 55. In the whole, one can say that the respondents represented a relatively young sample.

Figure 4. Age Distribution of Respondents

Age Distribution (%)

Over 55 18-25 years old years old

36-55 years old

26-35 years old

12 SURVEY FINDINGS

General Knowledge about NATO

The first aim of the survey was to evaluate the levels of information of the respondents on some basic facts about NATO. Thus, in question five the respondents were asked to identify the document upon which the Alliance was founded. As we see from the Figure 5, the overwhelming majority of the respondents, 84.2%, made the correct choice. Of those who did not correctly identify the North Atlantic Treaty as the founding document of NATO, the single largest group believed the Alliance to be based upon the Charter of the United Nation. The opinion that probably reflects a confusion caused by the close cooperation between NATO and the UN in several areas in the word, and especially in Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Afghanistan which are of special relevance to the Albanian public. However, due to the lack of more detailed information on this issue this must remain for the moment in the realm of speculation.

Figure 5. Question5: NATO Alliance was founded at …

Answers for general sample No. Percent Responder

Helsinki Charter 22 4.9

United Nations Charter 38 8.5

Northern Atlantic Treaty 377 84.2

Maastricht Treaty 4 .9

Don't know 7 1.6

Total 448 100.0

As figure 6 shows the military is the better-informed group in relation to question 5. 92.4% of them as opposed to 87.5% from the group representing respondents of various employments not included in the four main groups who came second and 86.8% of the media. The result seems to hint at a better level of information of the military who in the case of Albania have been more directly involved in the NATO integration than the other groups. In any case, it remains to be seen whether that is indeed true.

13 Figure 6. Question5 by Employment

Q5_NATO Alliance was founded at … United Nations Northern Atlantic Q2_Place of Helsinki Charter Maastricht Treaty Don't know Employment Charter Treaty Row N Row N Row N Row N Row N Count Count Count Count Count % % % % % Public 9 6.2% 10 6.8% 123 84.2% 2 1.4% 2 1,4% Administration Civil Society (NGOs and 6 6.6% 16 17.6% 66 72.5% 1 1.1% 2 2,2% Academia) Media 5 5.5% 7 7.7% 79 86.8% 0 .0% 0 ,0% Military Forces 1 1.1% 2 2.2% 85 92.4% 1 1.1% 3 3,3% Other 0 .0% 3 12.5% 21 87.5% 0 .0% 0 ,0%

When asked on the year when NATO was founded, once again the overwhelming majority or 69.2% made the correct choice of 1949. Nevertheless this time the percentage of correct answers, was significantly lower than in the responses to question 5. (See figure 7)

Figure 7. Question 7: When was NATO founded in?

Answers for general sample Frequency Percent

1939 21 4.7

1949 310 69.2

1959 82 18.3

1969 15 3.3

Don't know 20 4.5

Total 448 100.0

In the replies to question 7 it was the public administration group that had the highest percentage of correct answers. 33.7% of this group provided the correct answer as opposed to 23.9% from the military which constituted the second best informed category. (see figure 8)

Figure 8. Question 7 by employment.

100 % Public Administration 90 Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media Military Forces 70 Other 60

0 1939 1949 1959 1969 Don't know

In the responses to question 8 once again the majority of respondents provided the correct answers. However there was a significant degree of confusion in the responses which varied from country to country. It is perhaps not surprising that the USA received the highest percentage of correct answers, with 93.3% of the respondents correctly identifying it as a NATO member, followed by Greece with 92.2% and Turkey with a somewhat smaller percentage of correct answers. What came as somewhat of a surprise, given the levels of education and professional background of the respondents, is the fact that a considerable percentage of them, 20.3%, identified Russia as a NATO member. (see figure 9)

Figure 9. Question 8: Which of the following are NATO members?

Answers for general sample 100 % YES NO Don't know 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

d SA ia a tria rkey um U rlan gi gari Aus e Tu Russ Greece Bel Bul witz S

When the replies to question 8 were divided according to category the most noticeable fact concerned the percentage of incorrect answers provided by the media group on the case of Russia. 43% of this group, more than twice the figure for the general sample, was of the opinion that Russia is a member of NATO; a fact that does not comment well on the levels of information on international politics of this group who bears significant responsibility for informing the public at large as well as the other groups surveyed.

Figure 10. Question 8/3 by employment

Q8_3_Russia is a NATO member?

Q2_Place of Employment: Media

30 Percent 20

0 YES NO Don't know Q8_3_Russia is a NATO member? In the answers to question 11 too there was some confusion. Thus although a majority gave correct answers in the case of Kosovo (76.1% yes), Bosnia and Herzegovina (75.4% yes), Afghanistan (81.3% yes) and Israel (63.6% no) in the case of Iraq the majority, 51.3% made the wrong choice. It must also be noted that in the case of Israel and Iraq quite significant numbers of respondents were not able to provide an answer due to their lack of knowledge on the issue. (see figure 11). When analyzed by place of employment the answers reveal a confused picture with each of the groups providing the highest percentage of correct answers in one case and the lowest in others, thus making it impossible to draw any far reaching conclusions or comparisons between the various groups, except that they all are short of information on these issues.

Figure 11. Question 11. Where does NATO have a mission?) Answers for the general sample

100,0 % YES NO Don't know 90,0 80,0

70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0

20,0

10,0 0,0 Kosovo Iraq Bosnia&H. Afganistan Israel

In response to question 6 a majority correctly identified “ensuring the collective defense of member states” as the main goal of NATO with 68.1% of the respondents or 305 of them making this choice. The second largest group 19.6% thought of the promotion of peace and democracy as the main mission of NATO while a further 7.8% saw NATO as engaged mainly in the protection of the values of Western civilization. The smallest group – if the 1.1% who did not know are excluded – or 3.3% of the respondents thought that NATO’s mission was to fight terrorism. Although these choices were wrong it is easy to understand why the respondents may have been confused given the ever more active role that NATO has played in promoting peace and democracy and fighting terrorism in the years following the end of the Cold War as well as its engagement in Afghanistan. (see figure 12)

Figure 12 Question 6: What is the main goal of NATO?

Answers for general sample No. Resp. Percent

Ensure the collective defense of member states 305 68.1

Protect the values of the western civilization 35 7.8

Fight terrorism 15 3.3

Promote peace and democracy 88 19.6

Don't know 5 1.1

Total 448 100.0

17 It is interesting to note that, as can be seen in figure 10, in relation to question 6 males gave a significantly higher percentage of correct answers than females. Almost twice as high a percentage of females than male ones thought that NATO’s main mission was to fight terrorism.

Figure 13 Answers to Question 6 by Gender 100 % 90 MA LE 80 FEMALE Not verif ied 70

0 Ensure the collective Protect the values of Fight terrorism Promote peace and defense of member the western civilization democracy states

A similar pattern of correct and incorrect replies as in question 6 can also be discerned in the replies to question 9 relating to the decision making in NATO in case of attack against a non-member state (see figure 14). Thus although the majority of respondents, 52.7% or 236 of them, correctly responded that such a decision has to be taken unanimously, quite a large percentage of respondents, 25.2% and 13.6% respectively, incorrectly believed that the decision would be taken by either a qualified majority vote or by a simple majority vote.

Figure 14. Question 9: In cases of use of NATO violence towards a non-member state, how is the decision made? Answers to Question 9 for general sample Frequency Percent

The decision is made by the United States of America 17 3.8

by the NATO military commander 21 4.7

by the NATO member states by simple majority vote 61 13.6

by the NATO member states by qualified majority vote 113 25.2

by NATO member states in unanimity 236 52.7

Total 448 100.0

Surprisingly when the replied are analyzed in accordance with the place of employment, it appears that the public administration group is the best informed. 36.6% of them as opposed to 28.9% from the military who came in second gave the correct answers. It is gradually becoming clear that the

18 military is not necessarily the best informed group although they are without a doubt the group of professionals more directly involved in the process. Another troubling trend that is starting to become clear relates to the poor levels of information on the part of the media group and the civil society groups (see figure 15).

Figure 15. Question 9 by employment.

100 % Public Administration 90 Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media 70 Military Forces Other 60

0 The decision is by the NATO military by the NATO by the NATO by NATO member made by the United commander member states by member states by states in unanimity States of America simple majority vote qualified majority vote

As can be seen from figure 16, the respondents have given various answers which due to a flaw in the conception of the question and with the exception of “is not obliged to respond”, can all to some extent be seen as correct. Thus member states are obliged to respond militarily (30.1% of respondents), but that response will be conducted in accordance with orders coming from Brussels (55.4%) and, in accordance with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty members are obliged to respond as they deem appropriate. In short it would be hard to draw any conclusions on the knowledge of the respondents based on the replied to this question. In any case it is clear that the overwhelming majority of respondents are aware that the Alliance is obliged to respond to any attack on its member states.

19 Figure 16. Question 10: In cases of an attack of a non-member state on a NATO member state, each member state of the alliance is obliged to:

Answers to Question 10 for general sample Q10_NATO Decisions_attack FROM 60

ercent 0 P R Res Is no Com D espo on' po t obl i p t know nd to the aggre nd as it deem ly to the order ged to r

e s s Q10_NATO Decisions_attack FROM a non-membe

20 NATO and Albania

The second section of the interview aimed to evaluate the level of information on the part of the respondents as it concerns Albania’s relationship to NATO. Thus, question 12 presented the respondents with three different sub-questions regarding the Partnership for Peace, the Adriatic Charter and the involvement of Albania in NATO led missions. In the replies to question 12/1 a majority or 53.3% gave incorrect answers, while only a small percentage of 17.6% was aware that Albania was indeed the first former Communist country that applied for NATO membership (see figure 17).

Figure 17. Question 12/1: Which of the following answers is true about NATO’s relationship with Albania:

Was Albania the First former Communist country to apply for membership?

Frequency Percent

YES 79 17.6

NO 239 53.3

Don't know 83 18.5

The question is not clear! 47 10.5

Total 448 100.0

In the responses to question 12/2 concerning the Partnership for Peace the overwhelming majority of respondents, 83% provided the correct answer (see figure 18). Indeed it would have been surprising had they not done so given the publicity this has received in Albania. It is also becoming clear that in matters concerning Albania directly the respondents posses high levels of information, as opposed to a serious lack of information on NATO matters that do not direcvtly relate to Albania.

Figure 18. Question 12/2: Which of the following answers is true about NATO’s relationship with Albania: Has Albania has signed the document for Partnership for Peace?

Frequency Percent

YES 372 83.0

NO 18 4.0

Don't know 58 12.9

Total 448 100.0

Similarly in response to question 12/3 once again the overwhelming majority of respondents correctly identified Albania as being a member of the Adriatic Charter. It is however somewhat surprising that a significant percentage of respondents 17.6% are not aware of this very publicized development. (see figure 19)

Figure 19. Question 12/3: Which of the following answers is true about NATO’s relationship with Albania:

Is Albania is a member of Adriatic Charter

Frequency Percent

YES 330 73.7

NO 79 17.6

Don't know 39 8.7

Total 448 100.0

In the responses to question 12/4 once again the absolute majority of respondents 84.4,% of those interviewed provided the correct answer. In this case too the publicity these deployments have received in Albania probably account for the good levels of information. (see figure 20)

Figure 20. Question 12/4: Which of the following answers is true about NATO’s relationship with Albania:

Does Albania take part in military mission in B&H and Afghanistan?

Frequency Percent

YES 378 84.4

NO 45 10.0

Don't know 25 5.6

Total 448 100.0

The replies to question 13 however show that the respondents still have lack of information on some basic issues concerning Albania’s history with NATO. Thus the single largest group of 175 respondents, or 39.1% of the sample identified December 1994 or the time when Albania joined the Partnership for Peace as the time when Albania applied for NATO membership, when in fact Albania had done so two years earlier, in December 1992, as 25.7% of the respondents correctly replied (see figure 21).

Figure 21. Question 13: Albania has applied for membership in:

Frequency Percent

December 1991 23 5.1

December 1992 115 25.7

December 1993 108 24.1

December 1994 175 39.1

Don't know 27 6.0

Total 448 100.0

In the responses to question 14 although a majority of respondents were aware of the Reform Plan (60.9%) a significant number of respondents replied negatively. All in all one can say that the levels of information on the relations between Albania and NATO although generally satisfactory leave room for improvement, especially if one keeps in mind that the groups interviewed probably represent the best informed sections of Albanian society (see figure 22).

Figure 22. Question 14: Have you heard of the 2001-2010 Reform Plan approved by the Albanian government with the goal to prepare the Albanian armed forces for NATO membership?

% Heard of 2001-2010 Reform Plan? 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 YES NO Don't know

In the replies to question 14 the military provided by far the highest percentage of positive answers with 85.9% as opposed to 68.5% for the public administration which came second. These groups that are directly involved in the implementation of the reform are much better informed on the existence of the plan while the media and civil society although one would have expected them at the very least to show awareness of the existence of the plan gave a very small percentage of positive answers (see figure 23).

Figure 23. Question 14 by employment

100 % 90 Public Administration 80 Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 70 Media

60 Military Forces Other 50

0 YES NO Don't know

24 Evaluation of NATO

Given the nature of NATO and its concern with security the AIIS staff decided to evaluate the perceptions of threats to security of the respondents before continuing with the evaluation of NATO. Thus in question 16 the respondents were presented with a number of potential threats to Albania’s security and invited to evaluate them on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 meant that the threat was not at all serious and 10 meant that the threat was very serious. As can be seen from figure 24 opinions of the respondents on the possibility of Albania’s security being threatened by attack from another country are divided. The single largest group thought of this threat as not being important at all, but the second largest group on the other hand thought of attack by another country as being a very important threat to security. The tense situation in the region, the historical mistrust between neighbors in the Balkans, as well as the traditional concern about the threat their country faced from outside enemies, nurtured during decades of Communist isolation are probably the factors behind this evaluation.

Figure 24. Question 16: The security of Albania may be threatened by many factors. Evaluate on a scale from 1 to 10 the following factors, bearing in mind that the higher the number, the more important you consider the factor to be: 1- the factor is not at all important, 10- the factor is very important. Question 16/1: Military threat from another country.

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_1_Military attack by another country

Of all the groups surveyed the media seems to be the most worried about military attacks on Albania by another country, as can be seen from figure 25, while the public administration reveals the lowest level of concern with such an eventuality.

Figure 25. Question 16 by employment. 50 %

45 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 40 Media 35 Military Forces Other 30

0 12345678910Level of Importance

Nevertheless as figure 26 shows the threat stemming from the Kosovo status is correctly deemed as being much more serious in nature. The single largest group of respondents assigned a 10 to this threat, while only very small groups assigned this factor grades lower than 5. These figures go to the high level if uncertainty and concern shared by most Albanians on the potential consequences of the Kosovo issue to the region as a whole as especially to Albania which is bound to be affected very closely by any developments in Kosovo. Although the percentages varied from one category to the other, on the whole all respondents deemed this threat to be quite serious.

Figure 26. Question 16/2: Threats from unclear status of Kosovo.

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_2_Unclear status of Kosovo

26 On Macedonia once again the opinions were divided, although one must say that the balance favors those who did not deem this factor to be a very serious threat to Albania’s security (see figure 27). Nevertheless a significant percentage of respondents do consider the destabilization of Macedonia as a potentially serious threat to Albania. On this point too the opinions of the different categories were broadly similar.

Figure 27. Question 16/3.

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_3_Potential destabilization in Macedonia

In replies to question 16/4 the respondents revealed that threats stemming from poverty and economic issues were in their opinion more serious. Given the high levels of crime Albania suffers from and the close connection between poverty and crime this evaluation does not come as a surprise, nor does the fact that all the categories viewed these factors with some apprehension.

Figure 28, Question 16/4

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_5_Poverty and economic issues

27 Asked on the issue of religion as a threat to security figure 29 reveals that an overwhelming majority of respondents do not deem this issue to be relevant to the Albanian context. Given the historically excellent inter-religious relations in Albania, which has never experienced the horrors of wars between various religious groups these evaluations do not come as a surprise at all. In fact these results can be seen as further confirmation of the fact that the importance of being Albanian transcends any sense of religious belonging.

Figure 29, Question 16/5

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_6_Religious conflicts

Property rights too, which have plagued Albania ever since the collapse of the Communist system, were not deemed to be important. Although these issues have caused some social conflicts and tensions, the groups or individuals involved in such disputes are very small to represent a threat to Albania and to their credit most have traditionally followed the legal course of action in order to solve their problems (see figure 30).

Figure 30, Question 16/6

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_7_Property issues

28 Terrorism on the other hand was deemed to be a very serious threat with a majority of respondents assigning grades in the top half of the scale. Albania’s involvement in the so-called War on Terror by sending small contingents of troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, a small number of high profile arrests of suspected international terrorists in Albania in the near past have probably contributed to raising awareness on this issue among those interviewed. However given the fact that thus far Albania has been spare the horrors of a terrorist attack, it is not surprising that this factor was not assigned the same importance as the issue of Kosovo’s status (see figure 31).

Figure 31. Question 16/7

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_8_Terrorism

The military and the public administration assigned the highest importance to terrorism as a threat to Albania perhaps unsurprisingly give the emphasis the government has placed on its role, albeit modest, in the War on Terror. As far as the military is concerned this awareness of the threat from terrorism seems to reflect the changing nature of the Albanian armed forces and the shift in focus from conventional forces deployed in the defense of the country towards a more versatile and easily deployable force that can be used in combating terrorism or asymmetrical combat, in line with the vision of transformation of NATO. Figure 32 Question 16/8 by employment 50 %

45 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 40 Media 35 Military Forces Other 30

0 12345678910Level of Importance

The issue of globalization was also not deemed to constitute a very serious threat to security, by the general sample as well as by the various categories, although a small percentage seems to evaluate it as somewhat of a threat to Albania (see figure 33).

Figure 33, Question 16/8

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q16_9_Globalization

Perhaps not surprisingly when asked to identify which foreign country the respondents deemed to pose a more serious threat to Albania, the United States of America, had the best score, i.e. by far the highest percentage of grades of 1 in a scale of 1 to 10, approximating 80% of the general sample. Serbia on the other hand (see figure 34) was perceived as the greatest threat to Albania’s security with more than half the respondents assigning grades in the top half of the scale. Thus 19.4% assigned a ten, 14.7% a nine, and 10.9% an eight a further 15.5% was roughly split between a six or a seven. Given the tense situation over the future independence of Kosovo as well as the perception of the respondents on the threat originating from that issue such a result was to be expected.

Figure 34. Question 17. If you think the security of Albania could be threatened by another country, evaluate on a scale 1 to 10 the following countries. Bear in mind that the higher the number, the more important you consider the factor to be: 1 – the factor is not at all important, 10 – the factor is very important. Perception of Serbia as threat.

10 t n e rc

e 0 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q17_1_Threatened by Serbia

But while the grades assigned to Serbia could hardly have come as a surprise, the fact that Greece was ranked as the second highest perceived threat to Albania was indeed unexpected. Although the two countries have had their share of disputes and tense moments, in recent years relations between the two countries have been good. It is thus hard to explain the 41.1% who assigned grades of between 10 and 7 to the seriousness of the threat coming from Greece (see figure 35).

Figure 35. Question 17. Perception of Greece as threat.

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q17_4_Threatened by Greece

The results on Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy and Russia on the other hand, although they varied somewhat from country to country, revealed that the respondents do not perceive any of them as posing a serious threat to Albania. For instance Russia which was perceived as the most serious threat of all four countries received a mere 14.4% of grades in the 10 – 8 range (see figure 36).

Figure 36. Question 17. Perception of Russia as threat.

0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q17_6_Threatened by Russia

Given the perceptions of threats the respondents hold as well as the enthusiasm that has generally characterized Albanians during their country’s efforts in meeting the criteria required for Euro- Atlantic integration it was perhaps to be expected that the majority of respondents, 62.3% consider Albania’s integration in NATO as very important. A further 31.3% think of NATO integration as important although not a priority and only a meager 2% deemed as not important at all.

Figure 37. Question 18: Personal importance of Albania’s integration in NATO

Frequency Percent

Very important 279 62.3

Important, but not a priority 140 31.3

Not at all important 9 2.0

DON'T KNOW 20 4.5

Total 448 100.0

As figure 38 shows the military are the most enthusiastic group about NATO integration with 76.1% saying that they find it very important as opposed to 68.5% from the public administration who had the second highest score. Nevertheless when the first two responses are combined, i.e. those that find it very important and those who find it important but not a priority the differences are reduced significantly. (see figure 38).

Figure 38 Question 18 by employment

Q2_Place of Employment Civil Society Q18_Important? Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column Column Column N Column Count N % Count N % Count % Count N % Count Column N % Very 100 68.5% 39 42.9% 56 61.5% 70 76.1% 12 50.0% important Important, but not a 40 27.4% 41 45.1% 30 33.0% 18 19.6% 10 41.7% priority Not at all 2 1.4% 3 3.3% 1 1.1% 2 2.2% 1 4.2% important I DON'T 4 2.7% 8 8.8% 4 4.4% 2 2.2% 1 4.2% KNOW Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

The positive attitude of the respondents vis-à-vis NATO integration is demonstrated even more clearly in the responses to question 19. A full 91.3% would vote yes in a hypothetical referendum on integration, while only 1.8% were against (see figure 39). These results once again show how

32 committed these categories of Albanian elites – and one suspects the population as a whole – are to integration in NATO 15 years after Albania first applied for membership.

Figure 39. Question 19. If a referendum were held tomorrow regarding Albania’s membership in NATO, how would you vote? Would you vote For membership, or Against?

Q19_Vote for NATO?

100

60 Percent 40

0 For Against I don't know Q19_Vote for NATO? Once again the military was the most enthusiastic group with 94.6% saying they would vote in favor of NATO integration as opposed to 93.4% for the media who came second. The least enthusiastic of the four main categories were the civil society where 86.8% would have voted yes. It must also be noted that for each of the groups the percentage who is undecided is far more significant that the percentage of those who would vote against. This percentage is highest in the case of the civil society group where 12.1% are undecided.

Figure 40. Question 19 by employment

Q19_Vote for NATO? Q2_Place of Employment Public Civil Society (NGOs Administration and Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % For 135 92.5% 79 86.8% 85 93.4% 87 94.6% 20 83.3% Against 3 2.1% 1 1.1% 2 2.2% 1 1.1% 1 4.2% I don't 8 5.5% 11 12.1% 4 4.4% 4 4.3% 3 12.5% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

33 It is interesting to note – although one would be hard pressed to provide an explanation – that female respondents are somewhat more skeptical towards NATO integration than their male counterparts. Thus a slightly smaller percentage of them would have voted yes in a hypothetical referendum on the issue while the percentage of female respondents opposed to membership is roughly double that of the males (see figure 41).

Figure 41. Responses to question 19 by gender.

100 % 90

80 MA LE FEMA LE

0 For Against I don't know

When the reasons behind the vote in favor of integration are explored it becomes obvious that the single largest group, 34.8% of the general sample did so in the belief that national security would improve. Nevertheless if one looks at figure 42 it becomes clear that NATO integration is viewed as positive for a host of reasons that go beyond concerns about security. Thus the second largest group support NATO integration in the hope that such a development would bring about a strengthening of democracy and the rule of law (25.4%) – hardly surprising if one keeps in mind the fact that NATO has constantly emphasized the importance of this factors if Albania wishes to join – while the third largest group believes that integration into NATO would confirm Albania’s Western values (23%). Given the pressure exercised by NATO and NATO member states on consecutive Albanian governments which has always emphasized the need for reforms that would improve the country’s democracy and rule of law, it comes as no surprise that a significant percentage of respondents view NATO membership as a guarantee of improvement in these areas. The third largest group on the other hand confirms the desire of the Albanians to join the Western family of nations; a desire that has already been made clear by the overwhelming support that there exists in Albania for EU integration.

Figure 42. Question 20: Why would you vote yes?

34 40

10 t n e rc e 0 P N D A F D a e lb o o tio m a re n o n ig 't kn n c ia a ra n l se 's i o c w n y ve w cu e a ste s n t rity d m rn w th en

i e v t r a a u Q20_Main reason voting FOR All groups share the expectation that benefits stemming from Albania’s NATO integration will not be limited to improvements in the country’s national security. The military are the group who attaches the greatest importance to this benefit with 40.7% making this choice. Nevertheless the military also has the second highest percentage of respondents who expect NATO integration to assist in the strengthening of Albania’s democracy and rule of law.

Figure 43. Question 20 by employment.

Q2_Place of Employment Q20_Main Civil Society reason voting Public (NGOs and FOR Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column Column Column Column Count N % Count N % Count N % Count N % Count Column N % National security will 50 35.0% 32 35.6% 30 33.7% 37 40.7% 7 30.4% increase Democracy and the rule 42 29.4% 20 22.2% 16 18.0% 26 28.6% 9 39.1% of law will be strengthened Albania's western 23 16.1% 30 33.3% 29 32.6% 15 16.5% 5 21.7% values will be confirmed Foreign investment and the 22 15.4% 6 6.7% 9 10.1% 10 11.0% 1 4.3% wellbeing of the population Don't know 6 4.2% 2 2.2% 5 5.6% 3 3.3% 1 4.3% Total 143 100,0% 90 100,0% 89 100.0% 91 100.0% 23 100.0%

In order to explore the expectations of the respondents on the potential benefits of NATO membership they were asked to evaluate the various benefits on a scale of 1 to 10. As figure 44 shows increased national security was deemed to be the most important benefit of all with 41.3% assigning it a ten and a further 15.8% a nine. Confirmation of Albania’s Western values and an

35 improved image for Albania were deemed to be of almost the same importance with a small difference of 0.7% in grades of 10 while an increase in foreign investment and wellbeing was judged not to be as a important a benefit deriving from membership in NATO. Nevertheless with the exception of increase in national security, the three highest ranking benefits received very similar percentages of grades in the 8 – 10 range.

Figure 44. Question 21: Evaluate the same expected benefits of Albania’s membership in NATO on a scale from 1 to 10. Grade Increased Stronger Confirmed Improved Increased Democracy Image Foreign National Western Investment Security & Rule of Values & Well- Law being

1 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 0.4% 3.1%

2 0.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.7% 2.7%

3 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2% 3.3%

4 2.5% 1.8% 4.2% 1.3% 7.4%

5 4.2% 6.9% 5.1% 4% 7.8%

6 4% 7.1% 6.3% 4.2% 10.3%

7 7.1% 10.9% 10.3% 10.7% 12.7%

8 14.3% 12.3% 15.2% 14.1% 17%

9 15.8% 20.8% 15.2% 24.8% 11.4%

10 41.3% 27.5% 30.8% 30.1% 17%

No 7.1% 7.8% 8.3% 7.6% 7.4% response

Although on the whole male and female respondents gave similar answers, as figure 45 shows female respondents placed far more importance on the image factor.

Figure 45. Question 21.

100 % MALE 90 FEMALE 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 12345678910

Although there is overwhelming support for NATO membership among the respondents and although they all expect Albania to profit from membership in the Alliance, the views are somewhat more cautious when it comes to the costs Albania will have to pay in order to qualify for membership. As figure 46 shows there is large support for an increase in spending for military forces, by bringing it up to 2% of the state budget. Thus 79.2% were in favor and only 9.2% against. The results were broadly similar when asked on the costs of financing troop deployments with 74.8% voicing their support as opposed to 12.9% against. Opinions were less favorable when respondents were asked on the physical danger faced by Albanian troops deployed abroad with only 51.6% supporting it and 31.9% against and surprisingly opinions were just as split on the question of downsizing Albania’s military forces with 52.7% supporting such a development and 30.4% against. It should also be noted that on the question of the costs related to NATO membership the percentage of respondents who were undecided was significantly larger than on any of the other questions.

Figure 46. Question 23: Do you think it is good for Albania to pay the following costs for NATO membership?

37 100 % 90 YES 80 NO 70 Don't know 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Increase in the budget Physical danger Financing of the Dow nsizing the military troops Albanian military troops

While the replies generally presented a mixed picture, in the replies to question 23/4 it is clear which of the groups is not enthusiastic about downsizing the Albanian military|: the military. 41.3% of them were opposed to paying this cost in order for Albania to integrate into NATO as opposed to 28.6% from the civil society who came second; a difference of 12.7 percentage points.

Figure 47. Question 23/4 by employment

Q23_4_ Downsizing the Q2_Place of Employment Albanian military Civil Society troops Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column Column Column Column Column N Count N % Count N % Count N % Count N % Count % YES 79 54.1% 48 52.7% 57 62.6% 45 48.9% 6 25.0% NO 38 26.0% 26 28.6% 20 22.0% 38 41.3% 12 50.0% Don't 29 19.9% 17 18.7% 14 15.4% 9 9.8% 6 25.0% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

Opinions were just as divided on the question of Albania’s readiness to join NATO. Only 43.5% of the respondents believed that Albania is ready as opposed to 38.2% who were convinced of the contrary. A further 18.3% were as yet undecided. The results seem to reflect the often contradictory signals voiced by the media, the Albanian government and NATO representatives on the possibility of Albania receiving an invitation at the Summit of Bucharest as well as a more mature evaluation of the real progress made by Albania in its path towards integration: much has been done but much remains to be done.

Figure 48. Question 24: According to you, is Albania ready to become a NATO member?

38 50

0 Percent YES NO Don't know

Q24_Ready to become a NATO member?

The public administration with 58.9% and the military with 57.6% are by far the most optimistic about Albania’s readiness to join NATO. Given the fact that these groups are the most involved and bear the greatest responsibility for the reforms needed in order to meet the criteria of integration, it is not surprising that they have a positive opinion on the readiness of the country. The other two groups however seem to disagree with only 35.2% of the media sharing the levels of optimism of the public administration and the military. Only 18.7% of civil society on the other hand thought Albania ready for integration. Given the fact that many research institutes and NGOs in Albania have often been critical of the pace of reforms in the country the result was perhaps to be expected.

Figure 49 Question 24 by employment

Q24_Ready Q2_Place of Employment to become Civil Society a NATO Public (NGOs and member? Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % YES 86 58.9% 17 18.7% 32 35.2% 53 57.6% 7 29.2% NO 44 30.1% 44 48.4% 45 49.5% 28 30.4% 9 37.5% Don't 16 11.0% 30 33.0% 14 15.4% 11 12.0% 8 33.3% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

Nevertheless although the opinions on Albania’s readiness to join seemed to indicate a more mature and objective evaluation of the situation replies to question 25 indicate the contrary. There seems to be a naïf belief among the respondents that Albania will somehow be accepted in any case. This reflects the publicity campaign undertaken by the government which has repeatedly assured citizens that Albania will receive an invitation at the Summit of Bucharest. On the other hand these results seem to indicate a lack of local ownership of the process of integration: the respondents seem to believe that the integration starts with NATO and ends in Albania rather than the other way round.

39 Figure 50. Question 25: Do you think NATO should accept Albania even before it is ready to become one of its members?

Frequency Percent

YES 261 58.3

NO 105 23.4

Don't know 82 18.3

Total 448 100.0

A majority in all four groups shares the view that Albania should be accepted even if not ready, thus showing a lack of knowledge and awareness of the integration process. However the percentages vary greatly from group to group. Thus the military has the highest percentage of positive replies with 68.5%, followed by public administration with 64.4%. The fact speaks either of a serious lack of local ownership on the part of the two groups that are in theory the most directly involved in the integration process, thus leading them to the rather naïve conclusion that NATO will accept Albania as a sign of generosity, or of a lack of trust in the country’s abilities to undertake all the necessary steps needed for the realization of this dream. The media on the other hand has the lowest percentage of positive replies as well as the highest percentage of negative replies; a fact that seems to suggest a more mature and objective view of the integration process on their part.

Figure 51 Question 25 by employment

Q25_Albania should be Q2_Place of Employment accepted in NATO even before it is ready to become a Civil Society member? Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % YES 94 64.4% 53 58.2% 46 50.5% 63 68.5% 5 20.8% NO 38 26.0% 14 15.4% 34 37.4% 12 13.0% 5 20.8% Don't know 14 9.6% 24 26.4% 11 12.1% 17 18.5% 14 58.3% Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

The answers to the previous question become somewhat easier to explain when one looks at the replies to question 26. The respondents have a positive view of the progress their country has made in the last two years with 31% of them believing it has progressed very much and a further 44.5% believing that it has progressed somewhat (see figure 52). In view of these replies one is tempted to conclude that although the country is not ready for membership, Albania should be accepted into NATO as a reward for the positive efforts that have been made in this last years.

Figure 52. Question 26. According to you, how much has Albania progressed in the NATO integration process compared to the last two years?

10 t n e rc e 0 P Very much A little I don't know Somew hat Not at all Q26_How much Albania has progressed?

When analyzed by employment group the results reveal that the military is by far the most upbeat about the level of progress made in the NATO integration process. 51.1% believe that a lot of progress has been made. In fact as far as the armed forces of Albania are concerned progress has indeed been made, although one could disagree on the scale of progress. However this result reveals that the military tend to view NATO integration in a very narrow sense as concerning mostly military matters and the armed forces whereas in fact the biggest obstacles to Albania’s integration have thus far been the failure to reform the justice and electoral systems. Once again civil society is the more pessimistic about the progress achieved thus far. 34.1% of this group believes that little progress has been made as opposed to a mere 18.7% from the media. The public administration on the other hand was the most upbeat of all the groups. Figure 53. Question 26 by employment I don't 10 6.8% 6 6.6% 2 2.2% 0 .0% 2 8.3% know Q26_How Q2_Place of Employment Total much 146 100.0% Civil91 100.0%Society 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0% Albania has Public (NGOs and progressed? Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Very 55 37.7% 10 11.0% 23 25.3% 47 51.1% 3 12.5% much Somewhat 71 48.6% 42 46.2% 46 50.5% 28 30.4% 12 50.0% A little 10 6.8% 31 34.1% 17 18.7% 16 17.4% 7 29.2% Not at all 0 .0% 2 2.2% 3 3.3% 1 1.1% 0 .0%

Given the views of the respondents on the progress made by Albania in the last two years it is not surprising that they hold a pretty optimistic view on the potential year of accession to NATO. 29.5% believe that this will happen in 2008, but the single largest group believes 2010 to be a more appropriate date. In any case the overwhelming majority of respondents believe that by 2010 at the latest Albania will have realized its dream of finally joining NATO. (see figure 54). There seems to be some confusion on the part of the respondents concerning 2008 as the possible year of accession. The expectation is that Albania will receive an invitation in the Summit of Bucharest. Nevertheless the respondents are correct, in that receiving an invitation does not amount to actual membership, which would still be several years in the future even if Albania were to receive an invitation.

Figure 54. Question 31. According to you, Albania will become a member of NATO within the year:

Year Frequency Percent

2008 132 29.5

2009 78 17.4

2010 157 35.0

20015 36 8.0

2020 5 1.1

After 2020 10 2.2

Albania will never become a 1 .2 member of NATO

Don't know 29 6.5

Total 448 100.0

As figure 55 shows similar percentages from all four categories expect 2008 to be the year when Albania gains NATO membership. The difference between the highest percentage, 31.5% of the public administration and lowest from the media amounting 28.6% is only 2,9 percentage points. It is indeed remarkable that such similar percentages from all four groups are confusing an invitation to join NATO with actual membership of the organization. The public administration group however also has the highest percentage who think that Albania will gain membership in 2010 which would be a much more probable year of accession if Albania receives an invitation in 2008. Figure 55. Question 31 by employment

Q31_Year Q2_Place of Employment of Civil Society membership Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column Column N Column Column Count N % Count % Count N % Count N % Count Column N % 2008 46 31.5% 28 30.8% 26 28.6% 28 30.4% 4 16.7% 2009 25 17.1% 17 18.7% 19 20.9% 16 17.4% 1 4.2% 2010 61 41.8% 26 28.6% 29 31.9% 33 35.9% 7 29.2% 20015 4 2.7% 5 5.5% 8 8.8% 11 12.0% 7 29.2% 2020 1 .7% 0 .0% 1 1.1% 3 3.3% 0 .0% After 5 3.4% 2 2.2% 2 2.2% 1 1.1% 0 .0% 2020 Albania will never become 0 .0% 0 .0% 1 1.1% 0 .0% 0 .0% a member of NATO Don't 4 2.7% 13 14.3% 5 5.5% 0 .0% 5 20.8% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0% Whereas the answers to question 26 gave some cause for optimism regarding the progress Albania has made, the replies to question 27 present a more complex picture. Thus only in the case of the armed forces did the respondents think that significant progress has been made with almost half the respondents assigning grades in the 8 – 10 range (see figure 56). Combined with the evaluation of progress made in the past two years, this answer would seem to imply that NATO integration related reforms are incorrectly perceived by the respondents as relating first and foremost to reforms in the armed forces. Additional support for this argument can be found in the evaluation of progress in democratic institutions, the legal system, the economy and the war against corruption and organized crime where very small percentages of respondents have assigned grades in the top range and where the balance favors grades in the range 1 – 5.

Figure 56. Question27. In the past two year, various sectors of the government might have progressed at different paces. Evaluate the progress in the following sectors in a scale from 1 to 10 Grades Armed Democracy Legal Economy War against forces (%) (%) system (%) (%) corruption & organized crime

43 (%) 1 1.8 5.6 12.3 7.6 9.2 2 2.2 4.5 13.4 7.4 8.5 3 4.7 8.0 15.6 10.9 10.7 4 6.3 9.8 14.1 12.5 7.8 5 12.9 16.7 12.9 17.9 13.8 6 9.4 14.5 10.9 13.6 13.4 7 13.4 16.3 8.5 14.5 9.4 8 18.3 14.3 6.9 9.2 10.3 9 13.4 5.1 1.3 2.5 9.4 10 15.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 5.4 No response 2.2 3.8 3.1 3.1 2.2

As figure 57 shows the military group is by far the most optimistic about the progress made by Albania’s armed forces. In fact the percentage of 10s assigned by this group is double the average for the sample. The media and the public administration have also a somewhat optimistic view although the percentage of 10 s assigned by these groups is far lower. Civil society on the other hand does not seem to be particularly impressed with the progress made. Figure 57. Question 27/1. Progress of the armed forces by employment.

100 %

90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media 70 Military Forces

60 Other

0 12345678910

44 As far as progress in the legal system is concerned it is the media group that is the more optimistic of the four, with 15% of them assigning an 8 and another 16.2% assigning a 7. Nevertheless as one can clearly see from figure 58 there is generally no great satisfaction with the progress made in this area. Figure 58. Question 27/3, legal system, by employment.

100 %

90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media 70 Military Forces

60 Other

0 12345678910

When asked to compare the progress of Albania to that of other countries who are attempting to join NATO, the responses paint a optimistic picture of Albania’s progress in the integration process. Thus a majority of 44.4% judged Albania to have made more progress than Macedonia which faces a number of problems, i.e. the dispute over the name with Greece, which make its NATO integration quite uncertain. The same can be said in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro which to date lag behind Albania in their integration process, as well as in the case of Croatia which is guaranteed to receive an invitation in the Summit of Bucharest. In the case of Serbia which has made it clear that harbors no desire to join NATO, at least for the foreseeable future it is somewhat surprising that almost a quarter of the respondents deemed it to have made greater progress than Albania. It must also be noted that on this question the percentage of respondents who do not know was rather higher than in the responses to most other questions (see figure 59). Figure 59. Question 28. Do you think Albania has made more progress in the NATO integration process than: Response Macedonia Croatia Bosnia and Serbia Montenegro Herzegovina Yes 44.4% 12.1% 63.8% 60.5% 58.3% No 29.7% 69% 17.6% 24.3% 23% Don’t know 25.9% 19% 18.5% 15.2% 18.8%

As the tables in figure 60 show although in almost all cases a majority of respondents from each group agrees with the majority conclusion for the general sample, the percentages vary significantly.

45 Thus in the case of Macedonia, the military, with 60.9% is far more optimistic about the progress of Albania being greater than that of Macedonia. Public administration on the other hand is rather more cautious with only 34.9% believing Albania has made more progress as opposed to 30.1% who believe the contrary. In the case of the media group on the other hand, a a slim majority believes that Macedonia has made more progress than Albania.

Figure 60. question 28/1 by employment Q28_Albania has progressed more than Macedonia

Q2_Place of Employment Civil Society (NGOs and Public Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % YES 51 34.9% 47 51.6% 40 44.0% 56 60.9% 3 12.5% NO 44 30.1% 13 14.3% 41 45.1% 26 28.3% 8 33.3% Don't 51 34.9% 31 34.1% 10 11.0% 10 10.9% 13 54.2% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

In the case of Croatia on the other hand there is general agreement that the progress has been greater than that of Albania. The media and the military have the greatest percentages of No answers, while 25.3% from the civil society and public administration do not know.

Q28_Albania has progressed more than Croatia

Q2_Place of Employment Civil Society Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % YES 20 13.7% 7 7.7% 15 16.5% 9 9.8% 2 8.3% NO 89 61.0% 61 67.0% 70 76.9% 73 79.3% 14 58.3% Don't 37 25.3% 23 25.3% 6 6.6% 10 10.9% 8 33.3% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

In the case of Serbia once again it is the military that has the highest opinion on Albania’s progress with 71.7% believing Albania to have made greater progress. Although a majority of all three other groups believes the same the percentages are actually significantly lower and in the case of the media group there is only a 4.4% difference between those believing that Albania has made more progress and those believing the contrary. On a majority of cases it is becoming clear that the media group are the more guarded and cautious in their oppinions.

Q28_Albania has progressed more than Serbia

46 NO 19 13.0% 24 26.4% 40 44.0% 21 22.8% 4 16.7% Don't 31 21.2% 12 13.2% 7 7.7% 5 5.4% 12 50.0% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

In the case of Bosnia & Herzegovina again a majority from all four groups believes that 81.3% answering Yes, while the media is the more cautious of the groups. On Montenegro the situation is very much similar, the only difference being that on this occasion it is the military that has the greatest percentage of Yes answers followed by civil society in second place.

Q28_Albania has progressed more than Bosnia & Herzegovina

Q2_Place of Employment Civil Society Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % YES 85 58.2% 74 81.3% 50 54.9% 68 73.9% 7 29.2% NO 26 17.8% 3 3.3% 32 35.2% 12 13.0% 5 20.8% Don't 35 24.0% 14 15.4% 9 9.9% 12 13.0% 12 50.0% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

Q28_Albania has progressed more than Montenegro

Q2_Place of Employment Civil Society Public (NGOs and Administration Academia) Media Military Forces Other Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % YES 78 53.4% 61 67.0% 48 52.7% 66 71.7% 6 25.0% NO 33 22.6% 12 13.2% 34 37.4% 17 18.5% 7 29.2% Don't 35 24.0% 18 19.8% 9 9.9% 9 9.8% 11 45.8% know Total 146 100.0% 91 100.0% 91 100.0% 92 100.0% 24 100.0%

The responses to question 29 once again reveal that the respondents conceive of the reforms required to meet the criteria of NATO membership in a very narrow, military sense. Thus although the Albanian military is one of the few sectors that has made real progress in the integration process the single largest group of respondents, 42.2% almost instinctively replied that Albania should concentrate more effort in the reform of its military. The need to combat corruption and organized crime came in second with 22.3% of the respondents, while the economy came in third with 18.8% of the respondents. Ironically the need to reform the judiciary and the electoral process which have constituted two continuous demands on the part of NATO and its member stated, and indeed have

47 come to be seen as the sin non qua-s of Albania’s integration, have received very low, almost negligible percentages.

Figure 61. Question 29. In which of these fields should Albania place more importance in order to integrate in NATO?

0 Percent Re E War a Re E Do co lectio form n forms in t n' omic t k ga n n s s ow in inst corrupti the devel he mili ju op di t m c e n t

Q29_Important areas for the membership

Surprisingly although the respondents repeatedly stressed reforms in the armed forces as the most important area where Albania should focus its efforts, the responses to question 30 show that they are well aware of the importance of non-military matters in the road to integration. Thus although the military is still considered as the most important factor with 45.5% it a 10, politics has come a very close second. The need to fight organized crime and to hold free and fair elections also received considerable percentages in the very important category. Perhaps somewhat naively the situation in the region was not deemed to be of great importance by most respondents. It must also be noted that the overwhelming majority of respondents did not think of religion as playing a role of any significance (see figure 62.)

Figure 62. Question 30. Albania’s membership in NATO depends on many factors. According to you, how important are the following factors?

A. Politics, B. Economy. C. Situation in the region, D. Religious composition, E. Corruption, F. Albanian military, G. Missions in Bosnia and Afghanistan, H. Organized crime, I. Failure of law, J. Free and fair elections A B C D E F G H I J (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

48 1 2.2 1.3 2.9 34.6 1.6 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.1 3.3 2 1.1 0.9 1.8 16.1 2 0.9 2.9 1.3 2.2 2 3 0.4 2 4.9 9.2 4.5 1.1 3.1 3.6 2.9 3.6 4 1.8 4.2 7.1 7.4 7.8 2.7 3.8 5.8 4.2 2.2 5 3.1 11.6 10.9 7.1 8.9 4.7 7.4 7.68% 3.6 5.1 6 5.1 9.4 16.5 4.2 6.9 3.3 8.5 8.5 5.6 4.7 7 6.9 10.7 15.6 5.6 8.9 6 12.7 8.7 8.7 10.5 8 14.7 19.6 14.5 5.1 12.5 11.8 18.3 12.7 14.5 11.8 9 19 18.5 12.3 2.7 16.5 17.6 13.2 14.3 16.7 17.6 10 43.1 17.4 8.9 3.3 25 45.8 24.3 30.8 35 34.6 NA 2.5 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.4 5.1 4 5.4 5.4 4.5

As can be seen from figure 63 all four groups assigned Albanian politics maximum importance. The military has the largest percentage with 55.1% of them assigning this factor a 10 followed by the civil society with 47%.

Figure 63. Question 30/1, politics by place of employment.

100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media 70 Military Forces

60 Other

0 12345678910 Level of Importance On the military forces there seem to be agreement too on the part of all four groups. As figure 64 shows an overwhelming majority from all categories places maximum importance on this issue.

Figure 64. Question 30/7 Military by employment.

49 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media 70 Military Forces

60 Other

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

When asked on the importance of Albania’s religious composition on the other hand the picture is almost the opposite. With the exception of a small percentage from the military who assigned this factor a 10 all other groups deemed the country’s religious composition not to be of any importance as a factor of integration into NATO.

Figure 65. Question 30/5 religious composition by employment 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media 70 Military Forces

60 Other

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

The respondents were lastly asked to rank a number of institutions according to their responsibility for NATO integration. The government as a whole was deemed to be the most important of whole receiving a 10 from 57.4% of the respondents. The Ministry of Defense came in second with 52.5% of the respondents assigning it a 10, followed by the Prime Minister with 42.9% assigning it a 10, and the Albania’s Armed Forces with 35.5% assigning a 10. Perhaps unsurprisingly civil society was

50 ranked as the least responsible although various institutes and organization in Albania have played a considerable role in monitoring the government as well as in exercising pressure for it to remain committed to NATO related reforms (see figure 66).

Figure 66. Question 32. Albania’s membership in NATO is the responsibility of a number of the Albanian state institutions. Evaluate the responsibility of the following institutions on a scale from 1 to 10 A. Ministry of Defense, B. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, C. Prime Minister, D. Government, E. President, F. Armed Forces, G. Civil Society

Grades A (%) B (%) C (%) D (%) E (%) F (%) G (%) 1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.1 4.2 2 14.3 2 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.9 2.9 0.7 7.6 3 0.4 1.8 0.9 1.1 3.6 1.3 8.3 4 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.6 3.3 2 11.4 5 1.6 5.6 4.5 2.7 8.5 6 10.9 6 2.7 10.3 5.6 2.5 10.3 7.4 12.1 7 5.1 12.1 7.6 5.6 11.6 6.5 12.7 8 12.3 18.3 10.5 9.4 14.1 13.4 7.4 9 18.8 18.5 16.3 14.7 12.3 21 6 10 52.5 22.5 42.9 57.4 22.5 35.5 2.7 NA 3.6 5.4 6.5 3.1 6.7 4.2 6.7

As figure 67 shows all four groups are in agreement concerning the responsibility of the Ministry of Defense in Albania’s NATO integration. Given the emphasis the respondents have continuously placed on the military aspect of NATO and the NATO integration reforms this result was to be expected.

Figure 67. Question 32 by employment Q32_1_Responsible institution Ministry of Defense

100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance The Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the other hand was not seen as having as great a responsibility in the integration process. The group who assigned this ministry the greatest responsibility was the military and to a lesser extent the public administration. One possible interpretation of this result is that the respondents are aware that although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a serious responsibility in the diplomatic arena it is actually within Albania that the reforms must take place and the progress must be made that will finally allow Albania to join NATO. This interpretation is supported by the fact that the Albanian government, the Ministry of Defense and the prime minister

51 were deemed to be the most responsible institutions for carrying out Albania’s integration into NATO. The fact that although the reform of the military was continuously evaluated as one of the most important aspects of Albania’s NATO integration but that the Armed Forces themselves came fourth when asked on the responsibility of various institutions, indicates a realization that without the political will and the effort of the government Albania will not be able to make it into NATO.

Q32_2_Responsible institution, Ministry of Foreign Affairs 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

Q32_3_Responsible institutions, the Prime Minister 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

Q32_4_Responsible institution, Government

52 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

Q32_5_Responsible institutions, President 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

Q32_6_Responsible institutions, Armed Forces

53 100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

Civil society was deemed to bear the least responsibility for Albania’s NATO integration. While true that civil society does not have any direct responsibility in the reforms, in the sense of undertaking or implementing them, the result shows that the respondents, even those from civil society, underestimate the role and therefore responsibility that civil society can play in such an important process. In fact, although Albanian politicians and governments do not excel at taking advice from civil society such organizations have played a significant role in Albania at raising questions, criticism and generally provoking debate on the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration and on the progress made by various governments. In short, while civil society has limited direct influence in the implementation of reforms, it has been rather successful in exerting pressure on the governments and thus to some extent steering, or influencing policy and decision making. Q32_7_Responsible institutions, Civil Society

100 % 90 Public Administration Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) 80 Media

70 Military Forces Other 60

0 12345678910 Level of Importance

54 Information on NATO

After having surveyed the perceptions and levels of information of the respondents on NATO, the next logical step was to survey the sources of this information. Thus in question 33 the respondents were asked whether they had adequate information on NATO. As can be seen from figure 45 exactly 50% of the respondents replied negatively to the question; a result that goes some way towards explaining the mistakes and lack of information that has been encountered in the replies to the previous question. This also raises an important question: if the best informed groups in Albania do not have adequate information, how well informed is the public at large?

Figure 68. Question 33. Do you think you have adequate information about NATO?

Don't know

YES

Results however vary significantly per category. In the case of public administration the result is much narrower with 43.8% claiming they do posses adequate information as opposed to 41.8% who do not. The situation is rather poignant in the case of civil society and media where only 15.4% from each group claim to have adequate information. A full 59.3% of civil society do not have adequate information on NATO while in the case of the media the situation is even worse with 73.6% replying negatively. The military is by far the best informed of the groups with 62% responding positively.

55 Figure 69. Question 33 by employment

100 % Public Administration 90 Civil Society (NGOs and Academia)

80 Media Military Forces 70 Other 60

0 YES NO Don't know Level of Importance

Nevertheless from the responses to question 34 it becomes clear that the lack of adequate information is not so much the result of a shortage of information as to a lack of interest from the respondents themselves. A full 86.4% of the respondents replied that they would be able to find information on NATO if only they were willing to (see figure 70).

Figure 70. Question 34. Do you think you can find adequate information about NATO if you would like to?

Don't know NO

YES

56 As figure 71 shows the same is true for all the categories with the differences in percentage point not being as great as to make any significant difference. It is puzzling given these high percentages as to why these categories, and especially the media and civil society, who did not simply have the lowest scores, but who are also responsible for informing the public on NATO. That these groups do not make an effort to gain more knowledge of NATO is indeed unexplainable.

Figure 71. Question 34 by employment 100 %

90 Public Administration

80 Civil Society (NGOs and Academia) Media 70 Military Forces 60 Other

0 YES NO Don't know Level of Importance

The replies to question 35 yielded some interesting results. Thus the internet received the highest percentage of 10, thus making it the most important source of information for the respondents. NATOs offices in Tirana were the second most important source of information, while the Ministry of Defense came in third. The results also show that the government has not been successful in informing the public as well as the NGOs which received the lowest score of all (see figure 72).

Figure 72. Question 35. A great number of sources offer information about NATO. How much information about NATO do you receive from the following sources? A. Television, B. Radio, C. Newspapers, D. Internet, E. Ministry of Defense, F. Government, G. Parliament, H. NATO Office in Tirana, I. Embassies, J. Research institutes & NGOs grades A (%) B (%) C (%) D (%) E (%) F (%) G (%) H (%) I (%) J (%) 1 1.6 14.1 4.5 1.8 7.6 8.3 12.3 9.8 17.4 22.5 2 2.2 12.3 5.6 2.9 3.8 4.5 8 6.5 5.8 9.4 3 4.5 13.2 6.3 2.2 7.4 4.9 10.9 6.3 9.6 9.2 4 6.3 14.5 9.8 4.5 6 9.2 11.2 3.8 9.4 9.4 5 11.6 11.4 12.5 6.3 9.2 13.8 12.9 5.8 10.9 7.8 6 10 8.5 12.9 6.3 11.4 14.5 10 6.9 10.3 11.8 7 12.1 7.6 12.1 9.4 9.8 14.7 8.9 9.6 9.8 7.6 8 17.4 5.8 14.7 12.9 8.9 10.9 9.2 10.9 9.6 7.8 9 16.7 2.7 8.5 16.5 12.7 8 6.5 12.7 7.1 4.5 10 15 3.1 8.5 34.2 17.2 6 4 21.9 3.1 2 NA 2.7 6.9 4.7 3.1 6 5.1 6 5.8 6.9 8

57 The poor job done by the government in informing the groups represented by the respondents on NATO and NATO integration becomes more obvious if one looks at the replies to question 36. 51.6% of the respondents judged the government to bear the greatest responsibility for keeping them informed. It must also be noted that the NGOs once again came in last. It seems as if the groups represented by these respondents not only do not receive information from NGOs but do not even assign any responsibility to such organization for informing them. Nevertheless given the fact that the overwhelming majority of respondents from all groups claim that they could obtain information on NATO if they so wished, it is hard to see how anyone is to blame or bear responsibility for the not informing the public on NATO issues.

Figure 73. Question 36. Evaluate the level of responsibility each of the following institutions has to inform about issues that have to do with NATO. Please, evaluate on a scale from 1 to 10

Grades Government NATO Offices in NGOs Media (%) Tirana (%) (%) (%) 1 0.9 1.6 10.9 1.3 2 0.7 1.6 6.9 0.7 3 0.9 2.7 6.3 2.2 4 2 2 7.1 2 5 3.6 4.5 14.1 6.5 6 2.7 4.7 9.6 6.7 7 6 6.9 12.1 10.9 8 12.9 13.2 10.9 17.4 9 13.6 17.9 7.6 17 10 51.6 38.2 6.3 27.7 NA 5.1 6.9 8.3 7.6

58 METHODOLOGY

This study is a report compiled by the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS) based on a survey carried out with 450 respondents from different employment groups. The report constitutes part of the AIIS’ effort to map out the perceptions and attitudes of the Albanian public, and especially its elite groups on the NATO integration process. The four groups of respondents, i.e. from the media, public administration, military and civil society were chosen for the simple reason that they constitute four of the groups that are more closely involved in the integration process and the reforms and transformation that that process entails than would be the case for the ordinary citizens of Albania. This, coupled with the higher levels of influence these groups can exert on the government, the political establishment as a whole and the public, makes them play a primary role in shaping Albania’s EU integration process, thus making a study of their attitudes and perceptions quite an interesting subject for the AIIS to study.

Firstly, it would be useful and of interest to evaluate how these groups judge the country’s integration process; how aware are they of the consequences of the integration process and just as important, what do they expect to gain from it. After all, it is of the outmost importance to ascertain what these elite groups make of Albania’s potential accession to NATO. The perceptions and attitudes of these groups, and especially the media, are bound to have a great influence and to some extent shape the attitudes of the rest of the Albanian public as well.

Secondly, given that misperceptions have a way of raising unrealistic expectations, it is important to see how well informed these groups are, especially in light of several surveys carried out by the AIIS on the European Union integration process, which have revealed a serious lack of information and local ownership of the process.

Third, the AIIS was also interested in ascertaining the sources from where the respondents receive their information on the NATO integration process and their efficiency and credibility. It is also important to point out that this year’s survey was conducted at a time when most Albanians are looking forward to the Summit of Bucharest in April 2008 and the possibility of Albania receiving an invitation; an event that has probably raised the levels of optimism among the respondents. At the same time, the political tensions in Albania at the time of the survey and the critical comments by EU representatives concerning these developments have probably served as a note of caution that the road ahead is still long and fraught with difficulties. On the international aspect, the survey was conducted at a time when the debate on the future of NATO and the stability of the so-called Western Balkans regions, due to the unresolved status of Kosovo have resumed a new vigour and are bound to influence the outcome of the Summit of Bucharest. These factors played probably a role in shaping the respondents’ perceptions and views on NATO and Albania’s NATO perspective.

In order to achieve the project’s goals the AIIS team set itself the following objectives:

Asses the perceptions, expectations and attitudes towards NATO Evaluate the levels of awareness and perceptions of the respondents with regards to the integration process Where applicable, asses the differences in perceptions, expectations, levels of information and attitudes between different categories of respondents;

59 Asses the familiarity of the respondents with the history of NATO and its mission; Asses the familiarity of the respondents with the history of Albania – NATO relations; Identify the main sources of information on NATO for the respondents

Survey Design

The questionnaire used for this survey consists of 36 questions divided in five parts: 1) general information on the respondents, 2) general information on NATO, 3) general information on NATO and Albania, 4) evaluation of NATO, and 5) sources of information on NATO. In line with our assumption that these respondents are generally better informed than the average citizens, the questions were quite detailed in nature and included a number of sub-questions. In addition, the questionnaire aimed to provide answers of a qualitative as well as quantitative nature. The AIIS survey team prepared the questionnaire. It contains 13 pages, 36 questions both closed and open-ended. Much of the data is presented in percentages.

Sampling Procedures and Fieldwork

The fieldwork for the survey was completed during the month of July 2007 and in line with the aims of the survey, the respondents were chosen from four specific categories. This allowed the AIIS to obtain data of representative nature for each specific group as well as for the whole sample, which was assumed to represent that segment of Albania’s elite – with the exception of the political establishment – which plays the greatest role and has the greatest involvement in shaping Albania’s integration process. The respondents were all based in Tirana. As mentioned above, the respondents do not constitute one homogenous block, but they are divided into different groups in accordance with their employment. In addition, they also belong to various education and age groups and gender. These categories can be summed up as follows:

Employment status Civil Society Military Forces Public Administration Media

Education Background

Up to university University Postgraduate

Age groups

18 – 25 years of age

60 26 – 35 years of age 36 – 45 years of age 46 – 55 years of age Over 55 years of age

Not all the abovementioned categories received the same level of attention in the survey. Because the overwhelming majority of respondents belonged to the university or postgraduate groups it was deemed of no analytical value to analyse the results on that basis. Instead, attention was paid to the results as they varied per employment group. We assumed that some of the groups are more directly involved in the NATO integration process than the other groups.

Strengths and Limitations of the Survey

It must be noted that this survey is not a public survey in the traditional sense of the word. Thus the results cannot be used to show the perceptions and the level of knowledge of the Albanian public. These results are valid only for the four chosen categories. They do not reflect the perceptions or the level of knowledge of the average citizen. Moreover, the categories are so different from each other that any analysis that groups their responses together should be very cautious in drawing far reaching conclusions. Thus, the selection of the categories is the first limitation of the survey. Nevertheless the choice of categories is valid in as far as they constitute to all effects and purposes that part of the Albanian elite more closely concerned with the NATO integration process. It must also be said that the data, both on an individual and group basis does reflect the perceptions and the level of knowledge of a population group that is, or should be, better informed than the average citizen. However, even in this case the data should be used very cautiously since some important categories that belong to this group such as politicians or, university students have not been included.