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United Nations University Press is the publishing arm of the United Nations University. UNU Press publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals on the issues facing the United Nations and its peoples and member states, with particular emphasis upon international, regional and trans-boundary policies. The United Nations University was established as a subsidiary organ of the United Nations by General Assembly resolution 2951 (XXVII) of 11 December 1972. It functions as an international community of scholars engaged in research, postgraduate training and the dissemination of knowledge to address the pressing global problems of human survival, development and welfare that are the concern of the United Nations and its agencies. Its activities are devoted to advancing knowledge for human security and development and are focused on issues of peace and governance and environment and sustainable development. The Univer- sity operates through a worldwide network of research and training centres and programmes, and its planning and coordinating centre in Tokyo. International water security International water security: Domestic threats and opportunities Edited by Nevelina I. Pachova, Mikiyasu Nakayama and Libor Jansky United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS 6 United Nations University, 2008 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec- essarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press United Nations University, 53–70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan Tel: þ81-3-3499-2811 Fax: þ81-3-3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] general enquiries: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University Office at the United Nations, New York 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-2062, New York, NY 10017, USA Tel: þ1-212-963-6387 Fax: þ1-212-371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Mea Rhee Printed in Hong Kong ISBN 978-92-808-1150-6 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data International water security : domestic threats and opportunities / edited by Nevelina I. Pachova, Mikiyasu Nakayama and Libor Jansky. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-9280811506 (pbk.) 1. Water-supply—Management—Political aspects. 2. Water resources development—International cooperation. 3. Integrated water development. I. Pachova, Nevelina I. II. Nakayama, Mikiyasu. III. Jansky, Libor. HD1691.I54 2008 333.91—dc22 2008003990 Contents Figures................................................................. vii Tables.................................................................. viii Contributors........................................................... x 1 Introduction: From domestic to international water security . 1 Libor Jansky, Mikiyasu Nakayama and Nevelina I. Pachova Part I: Treaties and institutions ...................................... 7 2 The Indus water dispute and its relation with domestic policies ............................................................. 9 Shuntaro Yamamoto 3 Domestic issues in developing international waters in Lesotho: Ensuringwatersecurityamidstpoliticalinstability.............. 35 Naho Mirumachi 4 Domestic drivers of international water security on the Danube . ............................. 61 Nevelina I. Pachova and Libor Jansky 5 Transboundary cooperation vs. internal ambitions: The role of China and Cambodia in the Mekong region . 79 Marko Keskinen, Katri Mehtonen and Olli Varis vi CONTENTS 6 The role of domestic security in the functioning of the Lake ChadBasinCommission ......................................... 110 Virpi Stucki and Madiodio Niasse Part II: Emerging security threats ................................... 127 7 People’s encroachment onto Sudan’s Nile banks and its impactonEgypt.................................................. 129 Mahmoud El Zain 8 Inter-basin water transfers as a technico-political option: Thai–BurmeseprojectsontheSalweenRiver.................. 161 Bastien Affeltranger 9 The implications of domestic security policy for international water issues in the context of ‘‘virtual’’ and ‘‘real’’ water: The Aral Sea and Mekong River basins . ...................... 180 Mikiyasu Nakayama Part III: Opportunities for cooperation .............................. 193 10 Water governance of the Mekong River Basin and Chinese nationalproblems ................................................ 195 Kayo Onishi 11 Transboundary water issues in the Euphrates–Tigris River Basin: Some methodological approaches and opportunities for cooperation . .................................................. 223 Aysegu¨l Kibaroglu, Anthi D. Brouma and Mete Erdem 12 The politics of security in the Okavango River Basin: From civil war to saving wetlands (1975–2002) – a preliminary securityimpactassessment....................................... 252 Jeroen F. Warner and Richard Meissner Part IV: Conclusions ................................................. 287 13 National sovereignty and human security: Changing realities andconceptsininternationalwatermanagement .............. 289 Nevelina I. Pachova, Mikiyasu Nakayama and Libor Jansky Index .................................................................. 296 Figures 5.1 Map of the Mekong River Basin ............................. 81 5.2 Different levels of cooperation in the Mekong region ....... 85 5.3 Three phases of the Mekong River organizations . ........ 87 6.1 TheLakeChadBasin ......................................... 112 6.2 ThesurfaceareaofLakeChad............................... 112 6.3 Definitionoftheproblems .................................... 116 7.1 Current and projected population in the regions of northern Sudan, 1973–2013 ................................... 153 8.1 Location map of the Salween River, continental Southeast Asia ............................................................ 169 9.1 Food production in Afghanistan, 1978–2001 . ............... 184 9.2 Food import requirements in Afghanistan, 1998/1999– 2001/2002 ...................................................... 185 10.1 The Mekong River Basin . .................................... 197 10.2 Mekong River Basin profile from headwaters to mouth ..... 198 10.3 Seasonality of runoff in the Mekong River Basin ............ 199 10.4 Hydroelectricity generation projects in China (Yunnan province)....................................................... 202 11.1 Thefivewatermanagementparadigms ...................... 227 12.1 Securitydiagram............................................... 260 12.2 Thesecurityimpactassessmentscale......................... 262 12.3 ThepositionoftheOkavangoBasinontheSIAscale ...... 262 vii Tables 5.1 Some of the main functions, impacts and threats related to the Mekong River in five riparian countries . ............... 83 5.2 Proposed Mekong dam scheme in China ..................... 92 6.1 Information on the Lake Chad Basin countries .............. 113 6.2 Political instability in the Lake Chad Basin countries ....... 115 7.1 The population in the riverine and non-riverine zones in northern Sudan, 1922–2000 ................................... 132 7.2 Population of the top 20 towns in Sudan (riverine and non- riverine)andtheirpercentageincreases,1956–1993......... 134 7.3 Increase in cultivated area by sector and types of crop, 1994/1995–2001/2002 .......................................... 143 8.1 Water transfers to Thailand: Technical details – Routes 1 and2............................................................ 171 8.2 Water transfers to Thailand: Technical details – Routes 3 and4............................................................ 172 9.1 Afghanistan’s contribution to the flow of the Amu Darya . 186 10.1 Approximate distribution of the Mekong River Basin water resourcesbycountry........................................... 198 10.2 List of planned and completed hydropower projects on the Mekong in China . ........................................... 203 10.3 Degree of economic development by the three major regions, 2000 . .................................................. 206 10.4 Naturalresourcesinthewesternregion ...................... 207 viii TABLES ix 10.5 The nature of water resources and the distribution of benefits by upstream/downstream states and the outcome of conflicts: Arid area and Mekong River Basin (monsoon area) ............................................................ 218 10.6 The function of water and non-water resources and their interchangeability .............................................. 218 11.1 The water potential of the Euphrates Basin and the consumptionprojectionsoftheriparianstates ............... 234 11.2 The water potential of the Tigris Basin and the consumptionprojectionsoftheriparianstates ............... 234 12.1 A concise hydropolitical history of the Okavango River Basin............................................................ 272 12.2 A security impact assessment of the Okavango River Basin 278 12.3 The Buzan model applied to the Okavango case: Securitizableissuesbydomain ................................ 279 Contributors Bastien Affeltranger is a researcher in policy networks, water policy and Mekong hydropolitics, with a focus discourse analysis of national and on hydrological data management. transboundary watercourses. He graduated in Geography from Laval University, Quebec, Canada. Mahmoud El Zain is an Assistant A former UN consultant in natural Professor in the Department of disaster mitigation
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