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Environmental Scarcity, Hydropolitics, and the Nile Population Concentration, Water Scarcity and the Changing Domestic and Foreign Politics of the Sudan

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Environmental Scarcity, Hydropolitics, and the Nile Population Concentration, Water Scarcity and the Changing Domestic and Foreign Politics of the Sudan Environmental Scarcity, Hydropolitics, and the Nile Population Concentration, Water Scarcity and the Changing Domestic and Foreign Politics of the Sudan A thesis submitted by Mahmoud El Zain in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Institute of Social Studies The Hague, The Netherlands 2007 Promotores: Professor M. Doornbos, Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, the Netherlands Professor M. Salih, Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, the Netherlands Examiners: Professor J. Markakis, University of Crete, Rethymnon, Crete Professor L. de Haan, African Studies Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands Professor J. Opschoor, Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, the Netherlands This dissertation is part of the research programme of CERES, Research School for Re- source Studies for Development. Funded by the Netherlands Fellowship Programme (NFP) © Copyright Shaker Publishing 2007 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy- ing, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. ISBN 978-90-423-0308-9 Shaker Publishing BV St. Maartenslaan 26 6221 AX Maastricht Tel.: 043-3500424 Fax: 043-3255090 http:// www.shaker.nl ii To the souls of my brother Abdelkarim El Zain And my sister Um Na’eem El Zain Who both passed away while I was away conducting this PhD research iii Contents Acknowledgements: ...............................................................................xi Acronyms...............................................................................................xv 1 Introduction: Research Context, Problem, and Methodology .............1 1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................1 1.2 The Sudan in the Nile Basin context ...............................................3 1.3 Rationale and problem statement ....................................................16 1.4 Methodology ..................................................................................28 1.5 Organisation of the research............................................................33 2 Environmental Scarcity and Spatial Relations in River Basins: Theoretical and Conceptual Framework............................................37 2.1 Introduction .....................................................................................37 2.2 Domestic hydropolitics: theoretical underpinnings.........................38 2.3 Discourses on water scarcity ...........................................................48 2.4 Spatial dimensions of water scarcity ..............................................66 2.5 Conclusion.......................................................................................87 3 Carving Out the Sudan: Control of the Nile and Annexation of Non-Nilotic Watersheds................................................................89 3.1 Introduction .....................................................................................89 3.2 From loose-knit entities to a centralised political system ...............90 3.3 Economic modernisation in the Sudan: Creation of the economic core ................................................................................109 3.4 Conclusion.....................................................................................125 4 Normalising Environmental Scarcity: “Open Frontier”, Land (Ab)use, and Resource Conflicts .............................................127 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................127 v vi Contents 4.2. Resources historically and driving forces for “resource capture” ..128 4.3 Ecological marginalisation: Reducing the “supply” of “green water” .................................................................................146 4.4 Resource conflicts: Devastating the NRZ/upstream RZ and blocking the “open frontier”..........................................................164 4.5 Conclusion.....................................................................................181 5 Ecological Marginalisation and Declining Food Production in the Sudan ......................................................................................183 5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................183 5.2 A short history of food security/insecurity in the Sudan...............184 5.3 Current food situation in the Sudan...............................................187 5.4 Collapse of subsistence economies: Food insecurity in NRZ and upstream RZ rural areas .........................................................203 5.5 Concluding remarks ......................................................................214 6 Population Redistribution Trends: From Relieving to Squeezing the Nile..............................................................................................217 6.1 Introduction ...................................................................................217 6.2 Pre-twentieth century population movements ..............................219 6.3 The making of the economic core and reversal of the millennial population distribution pattern ......................................................232 6.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................262 7 Rapid Urbanisation: Current Pressures and Potential Causes of Water Scarcity ..............................................................................265 7.1 Introduction ...................................................................................265 7.2 Pre-nineteenth century forms of urbanisation: The millennial pattern...........................................................................................266 7.3 Sedentarisation and urbanisation in the nineteenth century ..........267 7.4 Sedentarisation, villagisation, and urbanisation during British rule.....................................................................................272 7.5 Large-scale resource capture and population concentration in the post-independence era.........................................................276 7.6 Uneven urbanisation in the Sudan.................................................283 7.7 Concluding remarks ......................................................................293 vii Contents 8 Claiming a Space in the “Forbidden” Downstream Riverain Zone: Resettlement, Food Security/Insecurity, and Increasing Demand for Nile Water.....................................................................295 8.1 Introduction ...................................................................................295 8.2 Institutional reaction to IDPs: Conflict between the state and communities over the RZ domain.................................................296 8.3 IDPs are not passive: Institutional response and IDPs resistance/claim of RZ “citizenship”.............................................302 8.4 Food security discourse and increasing demand for Nile water....313 8.5 Will current population redistribution trends be sustained?..........335 8.6 Conclusion.....................................................................................346 9 Impact of Environmental Scarcity on Sudan’s Relations with Egypt and Ethiopia .............................................................................349 9.1 Introduction ...................................................................................349 9.2 Sudan’s relations with Egypt.........................................................351 9.3 Impact of environmental scarcity on Sudan’s relations with Ethiopia .........................................................................................383 9.4 Conclusion.....................................................................................399 10 The Political Potential of Environmental Scarcity: Birth of a New Regime in the Nile Basin ........................................................401 10.1 Introduction .................................................................................401 10.2 Early attempts at cooperation in the Nile Basin..........................402 10.3 Birth of the NBI and the new regime of the Nile Basin..................406 10.4 De-centring the “Nile Basin”: The sub-basin approach as adequate response to environmental scarcity..............................423 10.5 Conclusion...................................................................................431 11 Development Priorities for Relieving the Nile from Pressure: Regaining the Rainwater and Augmenting Water Supply for the Sudan...........................................................................................433 11.1 Introduction .................................................................................433 11.2 Priority 1: Rural development for regaining the rainwater, food security, environmental protection, rehabilitation, and resettlement ..................................................................................434 11.3 Priority 2: Political stability and communal participation in managing natural resources..........................................................440 viii Contents 11.4 Priority 3: Increasing water supply for agricultural development; food security........................................................444 11.5 Priority 4: Trading
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