National Drought Management Authority MARSABIT COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR MARCH 2020
EW PHASE: NORMAL Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral Normal Stable Pastoral All species Normal Stable Fisherfolk/ Casual Normal Stable labour /Petty Trading County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall (% of Normal) 157 80 -120 Rainfall: In the month under review, onset of the long rains was timely and VCI-3Month 89.8 >35 the distribution was fair both temporally (3-7 rainy days) and spatially Forage condition Good Good across the County. The rainfall amounts received were above normal. Production indicators Value Normal Vegetation condition: 3-months Vegetation Condition Index remained stable at 89.8 across the County and fell in the above normal vegetation Livestock Body Good Good greenness strap. Condition Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Milk Production 1.8 >1.6Litres Production indicators: Livestock body condition was good for all the Livestock Migration Normal Normal livestock species across the livelihood zones. In the agro-pastoral areas of Pattern Moyale and Saku sub-counties, farmers are cultivating land and some have Livestock deaths (from No death No death commenced planting. Milk production was 1.8Litres/household/day, drought) which was above across the livelihood zones. Livestock grazed within their Access Indicators Value Normal normal traditional grazing areas. There were few incidences of livestock diseases reported across the County. Terms of Trade (ToT) 104 >59 Access indicators: Household and livestock trekking distances were at an Milk Consumption 1.5 >1.7Litre all-time low attributed to recharge capacity at 80percent of open water Return distance to water 4.0 0.0-7.2Km sources. Milk consumption was 1.7Litres/household/day which was Cost of water 0
▪ Short rains harvests ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains ▪ Short dry spell ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Reduced milk yields ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Milk Yields Increase ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Land preparation ▪ Kidding (Sept)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
Marsabit County(January - March.2020) RFE (2020) RFE_AVG NDVI (2020) NDVI_AVG 0.6 45.0
40.0 0.6 35.0
0.5 30.0
25.0 0.5 20.0
0.4 15.0
10.0 RainfallFor Estimate (mm) 0.4 5.0
Normalised Difference VegetationIndex 0.3 0.0 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month/Dekad Figure 1: Dekadal Rainfall (mm) and NDVI values compared to the Long Term Average Source: WFP-VAM, CHIRPS/MODIS
• From the figure 1 shown above, dekadal rainfall for estimate amounts for the first and third dekads was above normal while near normal for the second dekad when compared to the long-term dekadal rainfall for estimate averages. • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the first, second and third dekads were above normal when compared to their respective long term dekadal NDVI values. 1.2 Onset of the Short Rains Onset of the long rains was early as it occurred in the first dekad of the month as opposed to the normal onset which is usually the second dekad of March. 1.3 Amounts received • Marsabit Mountain received 138.1mm of rainfall in 8 rainy days with the highest rainfall amount recorded on 24th March at 64.1mm. Similarly, Moyale Township received 115.7mm of in 11 rainy days. Most areas of North Horr sub-county received rainfall amounts which were low when compared to the previous months’ rains. Balesa (10 rainy days) and Elgade (4 rainy days) in North Horr sub-county received slightly enhanced rainfall amounts of 75mm and 60mm respectively. However, North Horr, Elhadi, Malabot, Gas, Kalacha and Dukana in North Horr sub-county received depressed rains of 21mm, 40mm, 20mm, 27mm, 5mm and 22mm respectively in 1-4 rainy days. Northern parts of Laisamis sub-county received enhanced rains while Marsabit Central of Saku sub-county received above normal rains. 1.4 Spatial and temporal distribution • Distribution of the March rains was fairly good both temporally and spatially across most parts of the County. In Saku sub-county (Marsabit Central Sagante, Segel, GarQarsa, Badassa and Kubi-Qallo) received enhanced rains whereas Songa, Kituruni, Karare and Hulalahula received fair-poor rains. In Moyale sub-county (Sololo, Uran, Moyale Central Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 2
and Butiye wards) recorded good rains while Golbo lowlands and Obbu ward received fair- poor rains. In Laisamis sub-county (Mt.Kulal, Lardapach, Moite, Kargi, Surus,Ririma, Ngurnit) received enhanced rains whereas Korr, Namarei, Manyatta Lengima, Sarima, Loyangalani, Laisamis, Loglogo and Soito received fair-poor rains. In North Horr sub- county (Shurr, Hurri Hills, Forolle, Elgade, Sarimo, Qorqa) received good rains while other parts generally received depressed rainfall amounts. • When compared based on the livelihood zones, agropastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub- counties received much better rains than the pastoral areas of North Horr and Laisamis sub- counties. Generally, pastoral areas of Laisamis and Northhorr sub counties received rains for 1-6 days while agro pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub-counties received rains in 2- 8 rainy days in the month under review. Rainfall amounts at health facilities in North Horr sub-county is illustrated in figure 2 below. North Horr sub-county Rainfall and Temperature (March 2020) Rainfall(Feb) Rainfall(Mar) Temp(max) Temp(min) 45 120 108.00 110 40 100 90 35 80
75.00 70 60.00 59.00
(mm) Rainfall 30 60 53.00 50 40.00 25 40 32.00 33.00 30.00 27 22.00 30 19.00 20.00 Celsius) (Degree Temperature 20 20 21.00 9.00 10 5.00 15 0 North Horr Balesa Dukana Elgade Elhadi Gas Kalacha Malabot
Figure 2: Rainfall amounts and Temperature at health facilities under One Health Project: 1.5 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS Long Term Average (Bad Year) 2020 2019(Good Year) 400
350
300
250 200
150
100
50 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL (mm) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 3: Marsabit County Cumulative Rainfall Amounts (mm)
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 3
• From the figure (3) shown above, current cumulative long rains are above the long-term cumulative rainfall amounts. • The current cumulative rainfall amounts are above the normal cumulative rainfall amounts due to the off-season rains received in the first 2 months of the year and early onset of the long rains witnessed in most parts of the County. Generally, the cumulative rainfall amounts rains stabilized the already favorable environmental and production indicators.
2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1 1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
Figure 4: Vegetation Condition Index across the County
• From the figure shown above, the current vegetation condition index is within the above normal vegetation greenness band. The current value of vegetation condition index is 89.8 when compared to the previous months’ vegetation condition index of 93.9. Above normal vegetation greenness was attributed to cumulative effect of the off-season and long rains received in most parts of the County.
Figure 5: Vegetation Condition Index Trends across the County
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 4
• With the progression of the long rains, vegetation condition index will improve further and remain in the above normal vegetation greenness band for the next 1month. • Saku, Laisamis, North Horr and Moyale sub-counties illustrated a 3-months vegetation condition index of 107.67, 102.96, 86.28 and 70.83 respectively therefore fell in the above normal vegetation greenness band due to the cumulative impact of off-season (January and February) and early onset of the long rains. • Figure (5) shown above compares March 2020 vegetation condition index to March 2019, long term average and also depicts the maximum and minimum vegetation condition index values ever recorded. • When compared to the long-term average, the current vegetation condition index is significantly above normal and equates to the highest vegetation condition index ever recorded at this particular time of the year. • The 3-months vegetation condition index will likely be way above the long-term average in the next 1 month and fall within the above normal vegetation greenness strap. 2.1.2 Pasture • Generally, pasture was good across in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones attributed ripple effect of the remarkably enhanced short rains, off-season rains and early onset of the long rains across the livelihood zones. • The agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub-counties had better succulent pasture than the pastoral areas of Laisamis and North Horr sub-counties. When compared normally, the quality and quantity of pasture was good in all the livelihood zones. • With the current invasion of desert locust in some parts of the County, pasture has been decimated in some localized areas of the County majorly in North Horr and Laisamis sub- counties. In areas invaded by desert locust, pasture is expected to last for the next 1month against the normal of 3-4 months. • The desert locust has decimated approximately 25-30percent of livestock rangeland resources mostly in parts of Illaut, Arge, Mt.Kulal, Laisamis, LogologoTirgamo, Koya, Sakardala Namarei and Moite, Loiyangalani in Laisamis sub-county, and parts of El-Isako malla, Elgade, Barambate, Elboru Magado, Gas, Balesa, Dukana and Didi Siribi in North Horr sub-county. 2.1.3 Browse • Browse condition is good in all the livelihood zones attributed to early onset of the long rains. • Emergence of herbaceous vegetation was witnessed in North Horr and Laisamis sub- counties especially calotropis procera and bush encroachment. • Quality and quantity of browse is good in all the livelihood zones • In the areas infested with locust, browse is expected to last for the next 2 months against the normal four months. Generally, in the agro-pastoral areas (not infested by locusts) browse
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 5
will last for the next three and half months whereas in the pastoral livelihood zone browse is likely to last for the next 3 months against the normal 4 months.
2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources
Traditional River Wells Springs 13% 5% Pans and Dams 34% Rivers 13%
Shallow wells 14% Boreholes 21%
Figure 6: Main sources of water across the livelihood zones • From figure 6 shown above, water pans and boreholes are the main water source used by most of the communities across the livelihood zones as illustrated by a response rate of 34percent and 21percent respectively across the livelihood zones. • Other water sources employed by the communities in the month under review were shallow wells, traditional river wells, seasonal rivers and springs at 14percent, 13percent, 13percent and 5percent respectively. • Currently, 80percent of open water sources in all the livelihood zones are fully recharged and it is expected to last for the next 3-4 months.
2.2.2 Household access and Utilization Household Water Distances in Marsabit County - March 2020 12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Km in Distances Water Household 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020 Figure 7: Current household return water distance (km) compared to Short Term Average distances (km)
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 6
• From (Figure 7) shown above, return household water distances to the main water sources was 4.0km in the month under review which depicts a gradual decline when compared to the previous months’ household water distance of 4.5km. • When compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 4.0km is 44percent shorter than the short term average household water distance of 7.2km. • Shorter household distances to water sources was occasioned by recharge of open water sources at 80 percent across the livelihood zones. • The current waiting time in the agro-pastoral was 5-10 minutes against the normal of 45-60 minutes. In the pastoral areas, waiting time was 5-15 minutes compared to a normal of 45- 90 minutes. Generally, households waiting time at the water source is currently at an all- time low due to the recharged water sources. • The current average water consumption in all the livelihood zone is 15-20 litres per person per day which is normal.
2.2.3 Livestock access Distance from grazing area to water point in Marsabit County - March 2020 45.0
40.0
35.0 30.0
25.0
20.0 15.0
10.0
5.0
(km) distance grazing Livestock 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020
Figure 8: Current return livestock trekking distances compared to the short term average distance (km) • From (Figure 8) shown above, return livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points is 6.1km across the livelihood zones. • When compared to the short term average livestock grazing distance of 21.1km, the current livestock trekking distance of 6.1km is shorter by 71percent. • However, in isolated areas of Maikona, Turbi/Bubisa and Korr Ngurunit wards, (Baqaqa, livestock trekking distances were 8-15 kilometers in search of water. • Currently, cattle and small stock are watered daily and camels watered after 2-3 days across all the livelihood zones thus watering frequencies were high. Normally, cattle are always watered after 1-2 days, small stock after 2 days and camel after 4-6 days.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 7
3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition • The body condition of cattle and small stock was good across the livelihood zones which is normal when compared to similar periods attributed to above normal vegetation greenness. • Camel were in very good body condition across all the livelihood zones which is normal at this time of the year occasioned by good browse and low watering frequencies intervals. • The body condition for all the livestock species is expected to remain in good body condition for the next three months across the livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Migration • Normal migration for all the livestock species across the livelihood zones was noted in the month under review. Livestock that had trekked to far-flung areas in search of pasture and water have returned to their normal wet season grazing areas. 3.1.3 Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) and Calving & Kidding Rates • In the agro-pastoral livelihood zone, poor income households had 2-3 tropical livestock units compared to 2-4 normally while the middle income had 5-10 compared to 10-15 normally. In the pastoral livelihood zone, poor income households had 2-5 tropical livestock units compared to 4-7 normally while the middle income had 8-12 compared to 15-20 normally. Generally, most livestock are calving down, kidding and lambing is high across all the livelihood zones attributed to improved watering intervals, adequate and succulent forage in all the livelihood zones. 3.1.4 Livestock diseases and mortalities • Incidences of epidemic livestock diseases such as CCPP PPR were reported in Laisamis and North Horr sub counties, MERS-COV active and confirmed cases reported in Camels in Burgabo area of Turbi ward, camels cough with purulent nasal discharges reported in entire North Horr sub county, several deaths among camel calves and semi-adults’ camels. CCPP active in Laisamis, North Horr and Dukana wards. PPR active confirmed cases reported in North Horr sub county in Turbi and Tigo areas. • Livestock mortality is at 0.5 percent, 1.1 percent and 2 percent for cattle, camel and goats respectively which is normal mortality rate. 3.1.5 Milk Production
Household Milk Production in Marsabit County-February 2020 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Production/HH/Day/Litre Milk 1.0
0.5
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
LONG TERM AVERAGE(2006-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020 Figure 9: Milk production per household per day in litres across the livelihood zones
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 8
• From figure 9 shown above, household milk production per day for the month under review was 1.8litre/household/day across all the livelihood zones thus a decline when compared to the preceding months milk production of 2.3litres. • Current milk production of 1.8litres is above the long term average milk production of 1.6litres by 12.5percent. • Above normal milk production across the livelihood zones was attributed to generally good livestock body condition mainly because of short livestock trekking distances and above normal vegetation greenness. • Milk retailed at an average of Ksh.75 per litre across the livelihood zones compared to Ksh.90 thus 16percent below normal. Favourable milk price is attributed to livestock grazing within their normal settlements.
3.1 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops • Land preparation is currently ongoing in the agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub- counties. Approximately 10-15percent of the farmers planted early hence maize crop is in germination stage. 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices
Cattle Prices in Marsabit County - March 2020 30000
25000
20000
15000
10000 Cattleprice(Kshs.) 5000
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020 Figure 10: Current cattle prices compared to the short term average prices • From the figure (10) shown above, cattle price for the month under review was Kshs. 26,434 thus remained stable when compared to the preceding months’ price of Kshs. 24,476. • When compared to similar periods, current cattle price of Kshs. 26,434 is above the short- term average price of Kshs. 18,827 by 40percent. • Current cattle price is above the short term average because of generally good body condition across the livelihood zones. • Moyale livestock market posted higher cattle prices ranging at Kshs. 30,000-32,000 whereas Jirime and Merille livestock markets recorded cattle prices of Kshs. 24,000-27,000. • As the long rains progresses, cattle prices are likely to be above the short term average for the next one month in the major livestock markets.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 9
• In Moyale livestock market, traded volumes for cattle were above the short term average traded volumes because traders do not prefer selling to Ethiopia livestock market occasioned by a dip in demand of cattle for export to Arabian Countries. 4.1.2 Goat prices Goat Prices in Marsabit County - March 2020 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000
1500 Goat price(Kshs.) Goat 1000 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020
Figure 11: Current goat prices compared to short term average prices • Figure 11 above illustrates that the current average goat price is Ksh. 4,452 thus remained stable when compared to the previous months’ price of Ksh. 4,150. • When compared to the short term average price of Ksh. 3,885, current goat price is above normal by 15percent. Above normal goat price was attributed to good body condition across the livelihood zones. • Major livestock markets of Merille and Moyale depicted better goat prices ranging at Ksh. 4500-5000 attributed to good access and the neighbouring vibrant Ethiopia market. • However, North Horr sub-county posted s lower goat prices averaging at Ksh. 2,500-3,500 occasioned by insecurity incidences along the Kenya-Ethiopia border. With the progression of the long rains, goats’ prices are expected to increase for the next one month across the livelihood zones. 4.1.3 Sheep Prices
Sheep Prices in Marsabit County - March 2020 3500
3000
2500 2000
1500
1000 Sheep price(Kshs.) Sheep 500
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020
Figure 12: Current sheep prices compared to the short-term average prices (Kshs.)
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 10
• From the figure 12 shown above, sheep price for the month under review was Ksh. 3,330 across the livelihood zones hence remained stable when compared to the preceding months’ sheep price of Ksh.3, 450. • When compared to the short-term average price of Ksh. 2,860, current sheep price is above normal by 15percent. Above normal sheep price was attributed to good body condition. Moyale livestock market posted higher sheep prices averaging at Kshs.4, 000. • Sheep prices are likely to be above normal across the livelihood zones in the next one month as the long rains progresses.
4.2 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize
Maize Prices in Marsabit County - March 2020 50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
price(Kshs.) Maize 10.0
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020
Figure 13: Current maize prices compared to the short-term average maize prices (Kshs.)
• The average price of maize for the month under review was Ksh.43 per kg hence remained when compared to the preceding months maize price of Ksh.44 per kg. • When compared to the short term average maize price of Ksh.49 per kg, current price is below normal by 12percent. • Moyale commodity market registered lower maize prices averaging at Ksh.33 occasioned by increased maize supplies from the neighbouring Ethiopia market. • However, maize prices were high in most parts of Laisamis and North Horr sub-counties with prices ranging between at Kshs.50 and 60per kg due to poor market integration and insecurity incidences along the porous Kenya – Ethiopia border.
4.2.2 Beans • From the figure shown below, beans prices retailed at Kshs.87/kg in the month under review across the livelihood zones thus remained stable when compared to the previous months’ beans price of Kshs.83/kg. • When compared to short-term average beans price of Kshs.86/kg, current beans is normal. • Moyale commodity market exhibited favourable beans prices with prices ranging between Kshs.50-60/kg. Favourable beans prices in Moyale commodity market was attributed to increased beans supplies from the neighbouring vibrant Ethiopia market.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 11
• However, beans prices were higher in major commodity markets of North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties averaging at Kshs.90-100/kg occasioned by to poor market integration and insecurity incidences along the porous Kenya – Ethiopia border. Beans Prices in Marsabit County - March 2020 120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
price(Kshs.) Beans 20.0
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020 Figure 14: Beans prices compared to the short average term average prices(Kshs.)
4.2.3 Terms of Trade (TOT)
Terms of Trade in Marsabit County - March 2020 120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0 Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat a of sale from bought maize of Kgs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SHORT TERM AVERAGE(2015-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020 Figure 15: Current terms of trade versus short term average terms of trade • The current terms of trade is 104 kilograms in exchange for the sale of a goat which is 76 percent above the short term average terms of trade of 59 kilograms. • Above average terms of trade were attributed to favorable goat prices and stable maize prices hence high purchasing power of the pastoralists. • Moyale sub-county posted better terms of trade than other sub-counties due to higher goats’ prices and favourable maize prices driven by injections from the vibrant Ethiopia market. • However, terms of trade however were average in Saku sub-county and near average in North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties. When compared by the livelihood zones, terms of trade were better in the agro-pastoral than the pastoral livelihood zone attributed to higher goats’ prices and stable maize prices.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 12
5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION
Milk Consumption in Marsabit County - March 2020 2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
Milk consumption/HH/Day/Litre Milk 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
LONG TERM AVERAGE(2006-2019) WET YEAR DRY YEAR 2020
Figure 16: Current milk consumption/household/day/litre against long term average
• From the figure 16 shown above, household milk consumption is 1.5litre/household/day in the month under review across the livelihood zones thus gradually declined when compared to the preceding month’s milk consumption of 1.7litre/household/day. • When compared to the long-term average milk consumption of 1.7litres/household/day, current milk consumption is near normal. • Near normal milk consumption at the household level was attributed to slightly above normal milk production across the livelihood zones. • Milk consumption is expected to be stable in all the livelihood zones in the next one month as the long rains progresses. 5.2 FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE (FCS)
Marsabit County Food Consumption Score by Livelihood Zones- March 2020 75.0 74.7 65
60.0
45.0
32.5
30.0 22
(Percentages) Households 15.0
3.3 2.5
0.0 Agro-pastoral Pastoral Poor Borderline Acceptable
Figure 17: Food Consumption Score across the livelihood zones
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 13
• The mean food consumption score was 45.15 across the livelihood zones hence relatively remained stable when compared to preceding months’ food consumption score of 46.63 and was within the acceptable food consumption score band. • Food consumption score was better in the agro-pastoral than the pastoral livelihood zone with a mean of 55.1 and 41.4 respectively.
FCS Mean Poor FCS Borderline FCS Acceptable FCS
County 45.15 3.3% 33.8% 62.9%
Dukana 45.23 0.0% 15.5% 84.5% Golbo 78.66 0.0% 5.5% 95.5% Karare 60.20 0.0% 6.7% 93.3% Korr 39.60 0.0% 23.3% 76.7% Loiyangalani 29.21 19.4% 61.3% 19.3% Logologo 50.30 0.0% 26.7% 87.3% North Horr 29.25 0.0% 90.0% 10.0% Turbi 58.53 0.0% 20.5% 79.5% Heillu Manyatta 29.93 0.0% 93.7% 6.3% Sagante 27.21 21.0% 48.5% 30.5% Uran 49.83 0.0% 17.5% 83.5% • From the table shown above, 3.3percent of households consumed staples and vegetables every day and never or very seldom are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. 33.8percent are consumed staples and vegetables every day, accompanied by oil and pulses a few times a week whereas 62.9percent are consumed staples and vegetables every day, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses and occasionally meat of dairy product. • Proportion of households in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone that were within the acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption score were 74.7percent, 22.0percent and 3.3percent respectively. However, proportion of households in the pastoral livelihood zone that were within the acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores were 65.0percent, 32.5percent and 2.5percent respectively. • Golbo and Uran wards in Moyale sub-county, Karare ward in Saku sub-county, Logologo and Korr wards in Laisamis sub-county, Dukana and Turbi wards in North Horr sub-county exhibited acceptable food consumption score. However, North Horr, Heillu Manyatta, Loiyangalani and Sagante wards depicted borderline food consumption scores. • By and large, food consumption score has been in the acceptable band for the last 4 months in all the livelihood zones with a stable trend.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 14
5.3 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.3.1 Nutrition Status
Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition in Marsabit County - March 2020 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
% in Malnutriotion 5.0
ofrisk at children of Proportion 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
LTA(2006-2019) DRY YEARS WET YEARS 2020 Figure 18: Nutritional status of children below the age of five years verses long term average
• From (Figure 18) shown above, proportion of children under the age of five years who were ‘at risk’ of malnutrition was 13.1 percent in the month under review hence relatively remained stable when compared to the preceding months MUAC of 13.9 percent. • The proportion of children ‘at risk’ of malnutrition was within the normal range when compared to the long-term average MUAC of 21.1percent thus depicted an improvement in nutritional status of children below the age of five years over time. • Within normal nutritional status of children below the age of five years was attributed to near milk consumption at the household level, favourable terms of trade, ongoing safety net programmes and acceptable food consumption score across the livelihood zones. LAISAMIS NORTH HORR MOYALE Prevalence of global acute 35.2percent 15.4percent 12.4percent malnutrition (GAM) (<-2 z-score and/or oedema) (32.6 - 37.9 95% (13.3 - 17.7 95% (10.5 - 14.5 95% C.I.) C.I.) C.I.) Prevalence of moderate acute 26.8percent 13.6percent 10.6percent malnutrition (MAM) (<-2 z-score and >=-3 z-score, (24.4 - 29.3 95% (11.6 - 15.8 95% (8.8 - 12.6 95% no oedema) C.I.) C.I.) C.I.) Prevalence of severe acute 8.4percent 1.8percent 1.8percent malnutrition (SAM) (<-3 z-score and/or oedema) (7.0 - 10.1 95% (1.2 - 2.9 95% C.I.) (1.1 - 2.8 95% C.I.) C.I.) Source: MoH and Concern Worldwide • From the table shown above, Laisamis posted GAM rate of 35.2percent which is in the very critical IPC Phase 5 (more than doubled the 15percent emergency threshold) with SAM of 8.4percent. GAM rates in Laisamis continue to deteriorate with GAM rates way above July 2019 SMART survey thus urgent interventions in light of vulnerability of these severely and moderately malnourished children.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 15
• 447 children were malnourished and 24.2 percent (108) are in a program. 25.6percent and 19.7percent of the cases were admitted in the supplementary feeding programme and outpatient therapeutic programme respectively. • Prevalence of global and severe acute malnutrition in terms of z-scores and/or oedema and 95percent confidence intervals stands at GAM of 15.4percent with SAM of 1.8percent. • North Horr is at IPC Phase 4 which is critical. On IMAM coverage North Horr is fairing on well with 159 children and only 43.4percent (69) are in a program: 20 were SAM cases and 19 of the cases were in Program while 140 were MAM cases and only 35.0percent (49) were in program. • Moyale Sub County posted GAM of 12.4percent (IPC Phase 3-serious) with 1.8percent of the children were severely malnourished. Moyale has a good IMAM coverage; 125 were the malnourished children and 64.0percent (80) are in a program: 18 were SAM cases and 18 of the cases were in outpatient therapeutic programme while 107 were MAM cases and 57.9percent (62) were in supplementary feeding programme.
5.4 COPING STRATEGIES
Figure 19: Coping Strategy Index across livelihood zones
• (Figure 19) shown above, reduced consumption based coping strategy index(rCSI) for the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones was 14.4 and 14.9 respectively hence majority of households applied stressed reduced food consumption based strategies across the livelihood zones. • Reduced consumption based coping strategy index (rCSI) for the month under review was 14.5 thus declined when compared to the preceding month’s rCSI of 13.9. • 82percent of the households adopted coping mechanisms while 18percent of the households didn’t employ any of the reduced coping strategies in the month under review. • From table shown below, households in Loiyangalani, Sagante and Dukana wards applied more severe reduced consumption based coping strategies whereas households in Karare, Uran, Heillu Manyatta and Korr wards employed less severe coping strategies.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 16
Consumption based coping strategy index(rCSI) Sub-county Ward rCSI Saku Sagante 20.5 Saku Karare 9.2 Laisamis Korr 13.1 Laisamis Loiyangalani 30.5 North Horr Turbi 13.8 North Horr North Horr 14.6 North Horr Dukana 19.9 Moyale Uran 9.7 Moyale Heillu Manyatta 12.7 Moyale Golbo 14.8
• 9percent, 65percent and 26percent of the households applied reduced consumption based coping strategies that there minimal, stressed and crisis respectively. • Notable reduced consumption based coping strategies employed by the households across the livelihood zones were reduced portion size of meals, reduction in frequency of food consumption and reliance on less preferred food.
6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 NON-FOOD AID • Unconditional Cash transfer to 20,488 each receiving Kshs5, 400 bi-monthly in Marsabit County under Hunger Safety Net Programme III through National Drought Management Authority. • PACIDA supported 1240 households that were affected by desert locust invasion in Laisamis (3 months) and North Horr (2 months) sub-counties with cash transfer of Kshs. 3,000 monthly. • Food for the Hungry supported department of health with 57 paediatric weighing scales for COVID-19 preparedness • PACIDA supported desert locust control (70 Locust monitors and reporters) and Radio Talk Shows on COVID-19 and desert locust sensitization • State Department of Agriculture provided an aircraft, insecticides, 100 NYS officers to support in ground spraying of the desert locust. • Desert Locust Control –EA trained extension officers on desert locust biology and control. • FAO provided logistical support to department of agriculture for desert locust control. • World Vision Kenya is currently mapping 450households affected by desert locust infestation that will benefit from cash transfer which will be done for 3 months in Tirgamo, Sakardala, Nairibi and some parts of Ngurnit-Illaut in Laisamis sub-county, each month having a cohort of 150households. • World Vision Kenya supported the County team, and NYS to conduct surveillance, mapping and monitoring of the desert locust affected sites and spraying within the operation area- Marsabit south. • Kenya RedCross Society supported public address sensitization campaigns in Moyale sub- county provided personal protective equipment’s for COVID-19
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 17
• Concern WorldWide- provided logistical support and radio sessions on hand washing (COVID-19) • CCM- Supported sensitization campaigns on COVID-19 in North Horr sub-county • UNICEF, Kenya RedCross, FH-K, Concern Worldwide, World Vison Kenya, GIZ and CCM supported integrated medical outreaches for screening of Pregnant and Lactating Women and Children under the age of 5 years. • Provision of supplementary feeding commodities to 82 health facilities targeted depends on the need of health facilities aimed to improved IMAM performance indicators by WFP. • Kenya RedCross Society supported Community Health Volunteers in visiting households to trace defaulters in ANC, PNC, IMMUNIZATION, NUTRITION, sensitization on hygiene and sanitation and strengthen MNCH services. • FHK is currently undertaking capacity building on Agri-Nutrition, where over 900 Community Health Volunteer in Saku and Moyale and giving continued extension services to Groups -Achieved through Kenya Rapid Program. Livestock markets and markets System Strengthening targeting Jirime and DF Markets Through DFID Funding.
7.0 EMERGING ISSUES (DESERT LOCUST INVASION)
Sub- Locust invasion Date assessed Stage sighted Estimate Activities Estimated County location and swarm/band size undertaken total confirmed households affected North QorqaGuda 3/3/2020 Nymphs 3rd Large(Hoppers) Manual spraying 145 Horr and 4th instar North QorqaGuda 3/3/2020 Nymphs 3rd Large(Hoppers) Manual spraying 125 Horr and 4th instar North QorqaDiqa 29/3/2020 Fledglings Large(Fledglings) Manual spraying 128 Horr North QorqaGuda 29/3/2020 Fledglings Small(Fledglings) Manual spraying 115 Horr North North Horr 4/3/2020 Hoppers Small(Hoppers) Planned aerial 50 Horr spraying North El-Isacko Malla 4/3/2020 Nymphs Small(Hoppers) Identification of 175 Horr 2ndand sites and control 3rdInstar North Chororte 4/3/2020 Nymphs 2nd Large(Hoppers) Identification of 85 Horr and 3rd instar sites and control North El- Isacko Malla 8/3/2020 Nymphs 2nd Medium(Hoppers) Manual spraying 75 Horr and 3rd instar North Malabot 4/3/2020 Nymphs 2nd Large(Hoppers) Identification of 185 Horr and 3rd instar sites and control North Didi siribi 8/3/2020 Nymphs 2nd Medium(Hoppers) Provided 900 Horr and 3rd instar coordinates for aerial spraying North El-isacko Malla 7/3/2020 Nymphs 1ST Medium(Hoppers) Identification of 100 Horr instar sites and control North Chororte 4/3/2020 Nymphs 2nd Medium(Hoppers) Identification of 100 Horr and 3rd instar sites and control Laisamis Sakardala 10th March Nymphs 2nd, Large(Hoppers) Aerial spraying 200 2020 3rd instars, adults Laisamis Laisamis 5th March Adult mature Large(Adult Ground spraying 400 2020 locust yellow) Laisamis Loiyangalani 5th April 2020 Nymphs 3rd,4th Fledglings Planned Aerial 200 and 5th phase spraying Laisamis Illaut 6th April 2020 Nymphs 3rd,4th Fledglings Planned ground 120 and 5th phase spraying th rd th Laisamis Arge 6 April 2020 Nymphs 3 ,4 Fledglings Planned ground 150 and 5th phase spraying
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 18
• Marsabit County was invaded by desert locust negatively impacting on the hectares of succulent pasture and forage. The desert locust has decimated approximately 30percent of livestock rangeland resources mostly in parts of Illaut, Arge, Mt.Kulal, Laisamis, Logologo, Tirgamo, Koya, Sakardala Namarei and Moite, Loiyangalani in Laisamis sub-county, and parts of El-Isako malla, Elgade, Barambate, Elboru Magado, Gas, Balesa, Dukana and Didi Siribi in North Horr sub-county. • Millions of nymps have hatched in North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties. The breeding areas are along the river banks. The first generation locust is in immature stage and once it reaches adult stage and lays eggs we will have second generation locust. The immature locust can invade the neigbourinmg counties if not controlled. • With the persistence of the swarms and latest prediction on multiplication and invasion lasting up to June 2020, more acreage of rangeland could likely be decimated unless timely intensive aerial spraying and surveillance measures are undertaken.
7.2 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS. • The onset of the long rains was timely as it occurred in the first dekad of March, Moyale and Saku received slightly enhanced rains with Northwestern parts of Laisamis and North Horr sub-counties also receiving good rains. The rains are expected to peak in the month of April. • The current value of vegetation condition index is 89.8 when compared to the previous months’ vegetation condition index of 93.9. Above normal vegetation greenness was attributed to cumulative effect of the off-season and long rains received in most parts of the County. With the progression of the long rains, vegetation condition index will improve further and remain in the above normal vegetation greenness band for the next 1month. • Hopper and fledglings’ bands formed, which gave rise to increasingly number of first generation swarms that would be mature and be ready for a second generation of breeding and if not controlled will invade the neighbouring counties. • 80percent of open water sources in all the livelihood zones are fully recharged and expected to last until the next season. Household and livestock water distances are at an-all time low and expected to be within the normal ranges for the next one month. • Maize prices in the market will be stable resulting to improved household food access majorly in the agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub-counties. • Terms of trade are better in the agro-pastoral livelihood zones of Moyale and Saku sub- counties than in the pastoral livelihood zones occasioned by higher goats’ prices and stable maize prices. With expected improvement in goat body condition, goat prices are likely to improve further coupled with stable maize prices hence expected increase in terms of trade. • Most farmers are currently preparing their farms while a few have already planted. With expected peak of the long rains, majority of farmers shall have planted in April. • The mean food consumption score fell in the acceptable food consumption score band in all the livelihood zones and expected to be in the same band in the next one month while reduced consumption based coping strategies are likely to be in the stressed category. • Proportion of children ‘at risk’ of malnutrition was within the normal range when compared to the long-term average attributed to near normal milk consumption at the household level, favourable terms of trade and acceptable food consumption score across the livelihood zones and it’s expected to be stable in the next one month. Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 19
• Generally, the long rains received in the month under review improved environmental and production indicators whereas stabilized the access and utilization indicators.
8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ➢ Provision of personal protective gears, face masks, hand sanitizers, training of public health officers, continuous awareness campaigns across the County on COVID-19. ➢ Adequate and continuous community sensitization and engagement of the local administration system to on information dissemination about the locust invasion, control and management ➢ Local communities require capacity building on identification and reporting on any signs of desert locust invasion and laying of eggs. ➢ Introduction of drones for surveillance and aerial spraying of desert locust and other migrant pests in the county ➢ Continuous experts’ advisory on migration patterns of the desert locust determine the direction of the swarm movement and effective control measure. ➢ Restocking of small stock targeting households that lost livestock during the last floods. ➢ Improved storage of crops especially maize and beans to minimize post harvests losses. ➢ Strategic vaccination across the County against incidences of epidemic livestock diseases. ➢ Procurement of vaccines, multivitamin, deworming and enhancement of disease surveillance. ➢ Routine assessment and monitoring of nutritional status of all cohorts.
Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 20