National Drought Management Authority MARSABIT COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR MARCH 2020 EW PHASE: NORMAL Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral Normal Stable Pastoral All species Normal Stable Fisherfolk/ Casual Normal Stable labour /Petty Trading County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall (% of Normal) 157 80 -120 Rainfall: In the month under review, onset of the long rains was timely and VCI-3Month 89.8 >35 the distribution was fair both temporally (3-7 rainy days) and spatially Forage condition Good Good across the County. The rainfall amounts received were above normal. Production indicators Value Normal Vegetation condition: 3-months Vegetation Condition Index remained stable at 89.8 across the County and fell in the above normal vegetation Livestock Body Good Good greenness strap. Condition Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Milk Production 1.8 >1.6Litres Production indicators: Livestock body condition was good for all the Livestock Migration Normal Normal livestock species across the livelihood zones. In the agro-pastoral areas of Pattern Moyale and Saku sub-counties, farmers are cultivating land and some have Livestock deaths (from No death No death commenced planting. Milk production was 1.8Litres/household/day, drought) which was above across the livelihood zones. Livestock grazed within their Access Indicators Value Normal normal traditional grazing areas. There were few incidences of livestock diseases reported across the County. Terms of Trade (ToT) 104 >59 Access indicators: Household and livestock trekking distances were at an Milk Consumption 1.5 >1.7Litre all-time low attributed to recharge capacity at 80percent of open water Return distance to water 4.0 0.0-7.2Km sources. Milk consumption was 1.7Litres/household/day which was Cost of water 0 <Ksh.5 normal when compared to similar periods. Terms of trade was above Utilization indicators Value Normal normal attributed to above normal goat prices and stable maize prices. Nutrition Status, 13.1 0.0-21.1 Livestock market were operational and traded volumes improved. MUAC (% at risk of Utilization indicators: Nutritional status of children below the age of five malnutrition) years was stable and within the normal ranges. Food consumption score Coping Strategy Index 14.5 <20 fell within acceptable band while majority of households applied reduced Food Consumption 45.15 >35 consumption based coping strategies across the livelihood zones. Score ▪ Short rains harvests ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains ▪ Short dry spell ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Reduced milk yields ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Milk Yields Increase ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Land preparation ▪ Kidding (Sept) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Marsabit County(January - March.2020) RFE (2020) RFE_AVG NDVI (2020) NDVI_AVG 0.6 45.0 40.0 0.6 35.0 0.5 30.0 25.0 0.5 20.0 0.4 15.0 10.0 Rainfall ForEstimate (mm) 0.4 5.0 Normalised Difference VegetationIndex 0.3 0.0 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month/Dekad Figure 1: Dekadal Rainfall (mm) and NDVI values compared to the Long Term Average Source: WFP-VAM, CHIRPS/MODIS • From the figure 1 shown above, dekadal rainfall for estimate amounts for the first and third dekads was above normal while near normal for the second dekad when compared to the long-term dekadal rainfall for estimate averages. • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the first, second and third dekads were above normal when compared to their respective long term dekadal NDVI values. 1.2 Onset of the Short Rains Onset of the long rains was early as it occurred in the first dekad of the month as opposed to the normal onset which is usually the second dekad of March. 1.3 Amounts received • Marsabit Mountain received 138.1mm of rainfall in 8 rainy days with the highest rainfall amount recorded on 24th March at 64.1mm. Similarly, Moyale Township received 115.7mm of in 11 rainy days. Most areas of North Horr sub-county received rainfall amounts which were low when compared to the previous months’ rains. Balesa (10 rainy days) and Elgade (4 rainy days) in North Horr sub-county received slightly enhanced rainfall amounts of 75mm and 60mm respectively. However, North Horr, Elhadi, Malabot, Gas, Kalacha and Dukana in North Horr sub-county received depressed rains of 21mm, 40mm, 20mm, 27mm, 5mm and 22mm respectively in 1-4 rainy days. Northern parts of Laisamis sub-county received enhanced rains while Marsabit Central of Saku sub-county received above normal rains. 1.4 Spatial and temporal distribution • Distribution of the March rains was fairly good both temporally and spatially across most parts of the County. In Saku sub-county (Marsabit Central Sagante, Segel, GarQarsa, Badassa and Kubi-Qallo) received enhanced rains whereas Songa, Kituruni, Karare and Hulalahula received fair-poor rains. In Moyale sub-county (Sololo, Uran, Moyale Central Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 2 and Butiye wards) recorded good rains while Golbo lowlands and Obbu ward received fair- poor rains. In Laisamis sub-county (Mt.Kulal, Lardapach, Moite, Kargi, Surus,Ririma, Ngurnit) received enhanced rains whereas Korr, Namarei, Manyatta Lengima, Sarima, Loyangalani, Laisamis, Loglogo and Soito received fair-poor rains. In North Horr sub- county (Shurr, Hurri Hills, Forolle, Elgade, Sarimo, Qorqa) received good rains while other parts generally received depressed rainfall amounts. • When compared based on the livelihood zones, agropastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub- counties received much better rains than the pastoral areas of North Horr and Laisamis sub- counties. Generally, pastoral areas of Laisamis and Northhorr sub counties received rains for 1-6 days while agro pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub-counties received rains in 2- 8 rainy days in the month under review. Rainfall amounts at health facilities in North Horr sub-county is illustrated in figure 2 below. North Horr sub-county Rainfall and Temperature (March 2020) Rainfall(Feb) Rainfall(Mar) Temp(max) Temp(min) 45 120 108.00 110 40 100 90 35 80 75.00 70 60.00 59.00 (mm) Rainfall 30 53.00 60 50 40.00 25 40 32.00 33.00 30.00 27 22.00 30 19.00 20.00 Celsius) (Degree Temperature 20 20 21.00 9.00 10 5.00 15 0 North Horr Balesa Dukana Elgade Elhadi Gas Kalacha Malabot Figure 2: Rainfall amounts and Temperature at health facilities under One Health Project: 1.5 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS Long Term Average (Bad Year) 2020 2019(Good Year) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL (mm) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 3: Marsabit County Cumulative Rainfall Amounts (mm) Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 3 • From the figure (3) shown above, current cumulative long rains are above the long-term cumulative rainfall amounts. • The current cumulative rainfall amounts are above the normal cumulative rainfall amounts due to the off-season rains received in the first 2 months of the year and early onset of the long rains witnessed in most parts of the County. Generally, the cumulative rainfall amounts rains stabilized the already favorable environmental and production indicators. 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1 1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Figure 4: Vegetation Condition Index across the County • From the figure shown above, the current vegetation condition index is within the above normal vegetation greenness band. The current value of vegetation condition index is 89.8 when compared to the previous months’ vegetation condition index of 93.9. Above normal vegetation greenness was attributed to cumulative effect of the off-season and long rains received in most parts of the County. Figure 5: Vegetation Condition Index Trends across the County Drought Bulletin_March_2020_Marsabit County Page 4 • With the progression of the long rains, vegetation condition index will improve further and remain in the above normal vegetation greenness band for the next 1month. • Saku, Laisamis, North Horr and Moyale sub-counties illustrated a 3-months vegetation condition index of 107.67, 102.96, 86.28 and 70.83 respectively therefore fell in the above normal vegetation greenness band due to the cumulative impact of off-season (January and February) and early onset of the long rains. • Figure (5) shown above compares March 2020 vegetation condition index to March 2019, long term average and also depicts the maximum and minimum vegetation condition index values ever recorded. • When compared to the long-term average, the current vegetation condition index is significantly above normal and equates to the highest vegetation condition index ever recorded at this particular time of the year. • The 3-months vegetation condition index will likely be way above the long-term average in the next 1 month and fall within the above normal vegetation greenness strap. 2.1.2 Pasture • Generally, pasture was good across in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones attributed ripple effect of the remarkably enhanced short rains, off-season rains and early onset of the long rains across the livelihood zones. • The agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub-counties had better succulent pasture than the pastoral areas of Laisamis and North Horr sub-counties. When compared normally, the quality and quantity of pasture was good in all the livelihood zones.