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Drought Early Warning System

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Drought Early Warning System Arid Lands Resource Management Project II-MARSABIT DISTRICT DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2006 Drought Early Warning System Period: FEBRUARY 2006 ETHIOPIA WARNING STAGE Divisions Stage Trend Central Alarm Worsening Laisamis Emergency Worsening North Horr Loiyangalani Emergency Worsening Loyangolani Moyale Maikona Emergency Worsening MARSABIT District North-Horr Emergency Worsening DISTRICT Turkana Maikona District Central DISTRICT Emergency Worsening Laisamis Samburu District Isiolo District SITUATION OVERVIEW Environmental indicators • An average of two days showers was reported in many parts of the district at average of 3.0mm during the last week of the month. However, weather conditions generally were characterized by shinny and dusty days being the common features of the month. • Pasture condition significantly depleted in most parts of the district and the rest being restricted by unavailability of water. • Browses are in poor conditions following the prolonged drought period. Therefore mortalities are at its peak among all livestock species. • Distances for livestock to and from water sources currently increased by an average of 1.8kms compared to previous month. As a result, lots of livestock carcasses are observed between water sources and homesteads in most parts of the district. • Acute water shortages are currently noted in Turbi, Forolle, Hurri hills of Maikona division, Central and Gadhamoji divisions and parts of Laisamis division and El Hade, Balesa of North Horr division. As a result, water tankering was continued to the fore mentioned areas by Ministry of Water and Pastoralist integrated support programme (PISP). 1 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS • Livestock body conditions in many parts of the district are emaciated due to prolonged drought stress in the district. As a result, over 66% of shoats, 60% donkeys, 40% cattle and 21% camel species were decimated by starvation. It is estimated that in North Horr division up to 65%, Loiyangalani 60%, Maikona 55% of small stock died to starvation. A surge of livestock mortalities are noted with the current showers. • No major disease outbreak was reported in most parts of the district. Isolated cases of red water urinal disease incidences are reported among goats and cattle species at Gatab location and pneumonia/influenza among camels in Olturot and Kargi location of Loiyangalani division. • Insignificant milk consumption was reported in all parts of the district. • Livestock prices are on declining trend compared to normal period of the year which is caused by poor livestock body conditions. • Food prices remained high and stable compared to previous month. However, food purchases have slightly reduced by 4.6% compared to previous month as a result of the onset of relief foods. • Cereal/ Meat ratio shows that cereal prices remained high and stable while meat price ratio has decreased following the current stressful drought in the district. • Average daily casual labor rates reduced by Ksh. 26.00 compared to previous month. This indicates that pastoralist household’s purchasing powers are fluctuating outside normal situation of the year. HUMAN WELFARE INDICATORS • No major human disease outbreak reported in the district. The prevailing drought situation is a major threat in most parts of the district. Generally, malnutrition rates among adults are rampant in lowland parts of the district. • The district relief food supply increased from 30% to 60% compared to previous month as relief foods dominated 56% of the consumption. • Although relief suppliers increased by 20% compared to previous month, but 40% are not yet reached to meet the 90% as per targeted beneficiaries. Amongst the food commodities are maize, Pulses, Corn soy bean, vegetable oil and milk from Gok, EMOP and the Red Cross Society of Kenya. • Nutritional status of children between 12 to 59 months currently shows an average category (division) of as At risk, moderate 6.12%, normal 76.86%, GAM 7.05% and ARM 36.41%. Malnutrition cases are observed in North Horr, Maikona, Balesa, Loiyangalani and Korr sample areas. Although no major disease outbreak was reported in any part of the district but malnutrition rates were caused by severe food shortages in the district level. Medicine San Frontiers (MSF) organized a rapid nutritional survey in Loiyangalani, North Horr, and parts of Laisamis divisions. • Rabbis’ cases are continuously reported in Loiyangalani; Arapal and Olturot areas of Loiyangalani division and as result Veterinary Department with ALRMP have organized a campaign on rabbis in the fore mentioned areas to curb the disease. 2 Overall trend • The whole district is on emergency food requirement. Pastoralist households are currently experiencing starvation in Loiyangalani, North Horr, Maikona, and Laisamis divisions due to high livestock mortalities which has resulted to famine situation. • These food shortages are attributed to failure of the previous rains for two consecutive years of 2004-2005, previous raids/ displacement, increasing cereal prices, poor livestock body condition and or declining prices. 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS 1.1 Rainfall • Patchy showers were experienced in some parts of the district on third decade of the month. The weather conditions were characterized by sunny intervals and dusty days that remained common features of the month. Table below indicates the rain amounts for the district (gauges-mm) Area Date Rain gauge No. of rainy days North Horr 25 th 02.06 2.0 1 Mt. Kulal 25 th 02.06 5.0 1 Sabare 1st , 20 th , 21 st & 24th 40.0 4 Illeret 21 st & 22 nd 02.06 10.8 2 Loiyangalani ---- ----- ---- Laisamis 25 th .02.06 1.4 1 Dukana 25.02.06 2.0 1 South Horr 20 th & 25 th .02.06 12.5 2 Forolle 21 st & 25 th .02.06 13.0 2 Merille 26 th .02.06 7.0 1 Leyai ---------- --------- --------- NB: The above sites have the rain gauges while most of the district has no access to rain amounts. 1.2 Vegetation covers (pasture and browse) • The district is experiencing severe pasture scarcity, except for Mt Marsabit, Hurri Hills and Mt Kulal which recorded inadequate short rain distributions. Pasture scarcity is as a result of the previous short falls of short and long rainy seasons of the years 2004 and 2005. • No livestock migration reported in any parts of the diverse district. This indicates the dry spell is equally experienced in the entire district. • Few cattle migration from Arapal sub location to Loiyangalani sub location on eastern shores of the Lake Turkana are noted for weeding as coping strategy on such heightened drought periods.. These livestock migrations reflect the failure (inadequate) of the previous rainy periods in the district. • The poor vegetation cover has negative impact on food situation. 3 1.3.1 Use of water sources • The condition of water availability is reported as stressful condition since the short rains totally failed. Except for areas with permanent ground water sources, for instance, Loiyangalani, Kalacha, North Horr sample areas and Parts of Laisamis division other areas which depend on rain fed sources are experiencing acute water shortages. Acute water shortages are noted in El Hade and Balesa areas in North Horr division, Hurri Hills and its environs of Forolle and Turbi areas of Maikona division, Namarei and Kamboe of Laisamis division, and most parts of Gadhamoji and Central divisions. Ministry of water in conjunction with PISP is tankering water. PISP is tankering water from an average distant of 200kms to the areas. • Percentage of households using water sources currently increased following the depletion of seasonal sources in most parts of the district. • The most dependant sources are Boreholes, constructed shallow wells and traditional wells. The table below indicates water sources and percentage of household using them compared to normal situation Water source 1 2 3 4 Others % of H/holds depending on the source 70 68 48 59 34 % of h/holds normally depend on the source 35 60 34 40 40 1 Borehole, 2 Constructed shallow wells, 3 Dams, 4 Traditional river wells 1.3.2 Average distances (kms) to water sources • Average distances to and from water sources have currently increased between water sources and fora camps compared to previous month. • Increasing distances to water sources are resulted by inadequate rainfall amounts on the four previous seasons. • Distances between herders and water sources have drastically increased by 3kms in Kalacha sample areas compared to previous month. Distances to water sources in Kalacha sample area has resulted to an increase of 4% in livestock off take due to water stress in the area. • Increasing distances to water sources has negatively affected food situation. The table below indicates average distances (kms) to water sources compared to normal situation Water source 1 2 3 4 Others Average kms to the source 12 10 8 5 5 Normal kms to the source 5 8.1 6 4 5 1 Boreholes, 2, constructed shallow wells, 3 Dams, 4 traditional river wells 4 2.0 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock body condition • Livestock body condition has substantially deteriorated as evidenced by thousands of carcasses observed in most parts of the district as a result of prolonged drought period. • This is true for all livestock species. • This has negatively affected household food situation in the district. 2.1.2 Livestock health (in terms of disease affecting all species) • There is decrease in livestock diseases compared to previous month. • The existing incidences are CCPP and red urinal disease is reported in Loiyangalani division and thin livestock body condition remained the most killer. • Livestock diseases have substantially reduced due to previous mass vaccination conducted by veterinary department. 2.1.6 Milk production • No milk availability is reported in any part of the district. • This is attributed by prolonged drought period that has caused the pastoralist household have no access to livestock productivities. • This has negative impacts to food situation in the district.
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