Arid Lands Resource Management Project II-MARSABIT DISTRICT DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2006

Drought Early Warning System

Period: FEBRUARY 2006

ETHIOPIA WARNING STAGE Divisions Stage Trend Central Alarm Worsening Laisamis Emergency Worsening North Horr Loiyangalani Emergency Worsening Loyangolani Moyale Maikona Emergency Worsening MARSABIT District North-Horr Emergency Worsening DISTRICT Turkana Maikona District Central DISTRICT Emergency Worsening Laisamis Samburu District Isiolo District

SITUATION OVERVIEW Environmental indicators • An average of two days showers was reported in many parts of the district at average of 3.0mm during the last week of the month. However, weather conditions generally were characterized by shinny and dusty days being the common features of the month. • Pasture condition significantly depleted in most parts of the district and the rest being restricted by unavailability of water. • Browses are in poor conditions following the prolonged drought period. Therefore mortalities are at its peak among all livestock species. • Distances for livestock to and from water sources currently increased by an average of 1.8kms compared to previous month. As a result, lots of livestock carcasses are observed between water sources and homesteads in most parts of the district. • Acute water shortages are currently noted in Turbi, Forolle, Hurri hills of Maikona division, Central and Gadhamoji divisions and parts of Laisamis division and El Hade, Balesa of North Horr division. As a result, water tankering was continued to the fore mentioned areas by Ministry of Water and Pastoralist integrated support programme (PISP).

1 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS • Livestock body conditions in many parts of the district are emaciated due to prolonged drought stress in the district. As a result, over 66% of shoats, 60% donkeys, 40% cattle and 21% camel species were decimated by starvation. It is estimated that in North Horr division up to 65%, Loiyangalani 60%, Maikona 55% of small stock died to starvation. A surge of livestock mortalities are noted with the current showers. • No major disease outbreak was reported in most parts of the district. Isolated cases of red water urinal disease incidences are reported among goats and cattle species at Gatab location and pneumonia/influenza among camels in Olturot and Kargi location of Loiyangalani division. • Insignificant milk consumption was reported in all parts of the district. • Livestock prices are on declining trend compared to normal period of the year which is caused by poor livestock body conditions. • Food prices remained high and stable compared to previous month. However, food purchases have slightly reduced by 4.6% compared to previous month as a result of the onset of relief foods. • Cereal/ Meat ratio shows that cereal prices remained high and stable while meat price ratio has decreased following the current stressful drought in the district. • Average daily casual labor rates reduced by Ksh. 26.00 compared to previous month. This indicates that pastoralist household’s purchasing powers are fluctuating outside normal situation of the year.

HUMAN WELFARE INDICATORS • No major human disease outbreak reported in the district. The prevailing drought situation is a major threat in most parts of the district. Generally, malnutrition rates among adults are rampant in lowland parts of the district. • The district relief food supply increased from 30% to 60% compared to previous month as relief foods dominated 56% of the consumption. • Although relief suppliers increased by 20% compared to previous month, but 40% are not yet reached to meet the 90% as per targeted beneficiaries. Amongst the food commodities are maize, Pulses, Corn soy bean, vegetable oil and milk from Gok, EMOP and the Red Cross Society of Kenya. • Nutritional status of children between 12 to 59 months currently shows an average category (division) of as At risk, moderate 6.12%, normal 76.86%, GAM 7.05% and ARM 36.41%. Malnutrition cases are observed in North Horr, Maikona, Balesa, Loiyangalani and Korr sample areas. Although no major disease outbreak was reported in any part of the district but malnutrition rates were caused by severe food shortages in the district level. Medicine San Frontiers (MSF) organized a rapid nutritional survey in Loiyangalani, North Horr, and parts of Laisamis divisions. • Rabbis’ cases are continuously reported in Loiyangalani; Arapal and Olturot areas of Loiyangalani division and as result Veterinary Department with ALRMP have organized a campaign on rabbis in the fore mentioned areas to curb the disease.

2 Overall trend • The whole district is on emergency food requirement. Pastoralist households are currently experiencing starvation in Loiyangalani, North Horr, Maikona, and Laisamis divisions due to high livestock mortalities which has resulted to famine situation. • These food shortages are attributed to failure of the previous rains for two consecutive years of 2004-2005, previous raids/ displacement, increasing cereal prices, poor livestock body condition and or declining prices.

1 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS 1.1 Rainfall • Patchy showers were experienced in some parts of the district on third decade of the month. The weather conditions were characterized by sunny intervals and dusty days that remained common features of the month.

Table below indicates the rain amounts for the district (gauges-mm) Area Date Rain gauge No. of rainy days North Horr 25 th 02.06 2.0 1 Mt. Kulal 25 th 02.06 5.0 1 Sabare 1st , 20 th , 21 st & 24th 40.0 4 Illeret 21 st & 22 nd 02.06 10.8 2 Loiyangalani ------Laisamis 25 th .02.06 1.4 1 Dukana 25.02.06 2.0 1 South Horr 20 th & 25 th .02.06 12.5 2 Forolle 21 st & 25 th .02.06 13.0 2 Merille 26 th .02.06 7.0 1 Leyai ------NB: The above sites have the rain gauges while most of the district has no access to rain amounts.

1.2 Vegetation covers (pasture and browse) • The district is experiencing severe pasture scarcity, except for Mt Marsabit, Hurri Hills and Mt Kulal which recorded inadequate short rain distributions. Pasture scarcity is as a result of the previous short falls of short and long rainy seasons of the years 2004 and 2005. • No livestock migration reported in any parts of the diverse district. This indicates the dry spell is equally experienced in the entire district. • Few cattle migration from Arapal sub location to Loiyangalani sub location on eastern shores of the Lake Turkana are noted for weeding as coping strategy on such heightened drought periods.. These livestock migrations reflect the failure (inadequate) of the previous rainy periods in the district. • The poor vegetation cover has negative impact on food situation.

3 1.3.1 Use of water sources • The condition of water availability is reported as stressful condition since the short rains totally failed. Except for areas with permanent ground water sources, for instance, Loiyangalani, Kalacha, North Horr sample areas and Parts of Laisamis division other areas which depend on rain fed sources are experiencing acute water shortages. Acute water shortages are noted in El Hade and Balesa areas in North Horr division, Hurri Hills and its environs of Forolle and Turbi areas of Maikona division, Namarei and Kamboe of Laisamis division, and most parts of Gadhamoji and Central divisions. Ministry of water in conjunction with PISP is tankering water. PISP is tankering water from an average distant of 200kms to the areas. • Percentage of households using water sources currently increased following the depletion of seasonal sources in most parts of the district. • The most dependant sources are Boreholes, constructed shallow wells and traditional wells.

The table below indicates water sources and percentage of household using them compared to normal situation Water source 1 2 3 4 Others % of H/holds depending on the source 70 68 48 59 34 % of h/holds normally depend on the source 35 60 34 40 40 1 Borehole, 2 Constructed shallow wells, 3 Dams, 4 Traditional river wells

1.3.2 Average distances (kms) to water sources • Average distances to and from water sources have currently increased between water sources and fora camps compared to previous month. • Increasing distances to water sources are resulted by inadequate rainfall amounts on the four previous seasons. • Distances between herders and water sources have drastically increased by 3kms in Kalacha sample areas compared to previous month. Distances to water sources in Kalacha sample area has resulted to an increase of 4% in livestock off take due to water stress in the area. • Increasing distances to water sources has negatively affected food situation.

The table below indicates average distances (kms) to water sources compared to normal situation Water source 1 2 3 4 Others Average kms to the source 12 10 8 5 5 Normal kms to the source 5 8.1 6 4 5 1 Boreholes, 2, constructed shallow wells, 3 Dams, 4 traditional river wells

4 2.0 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock body condition • Livestock body condition has substantially deteriorated as evidenced by thousands of carcasses observed in most parts of the district as a result of prolonged drought period. • This is true for all livestock species. • This has negatively affected household food situation in the district. 2.1.2 Livestock health (in terms of disease affecting all species) • There is decrease in livestock diseases compared to previous month. • The existing incidences are CCPP and red urinal disease is reported in Loiyangalani division and thin livestock body condition remained the most killer. • Livestock diseases have substantially reduced due to previous mass vaccination conducted by veterinary department. 2.1.6 Milk production • No milk availability is reported in any part of the district. • This is attributed by prolonged drought period that has caused the pastoralist household have no access to livestock productivities. • This has negative impacts to food situation in the district.

The table below indicates household milk consumption (%) Category Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2005 Every one 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Children 10 5 8.2 4 1 0 19 1.5 0 0 0 0 No one 17 9.5 21 67 80 98 90.5 98 100 100 100 100

2.1.7 Livestock prices (Kshs) a) Cattle • Average cattle prices slightly increased by Ksh. 752.00 compared to previous month. • Increasing cattle prices are reported in Kalacha sample area of Maikona division while the least prices are fetched in Ngurnit sample area where a 3 years old bull sold between ksh. 2800- 3500. Cattle prices substantially reduced in Loiyangalani division where a three years bull fetched an average price of ksh. 5,000.= • This is mainly caused by thin cattle condition. • This has negative impact to food situation. The table below shows average cattle prices by divisions (Kshs) Divisions Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 05 2006 Central 9833 7800 9000 8825 0 4224 0 6000 6470 0 5892 0 6360 Laisamis 8000 6500 6500 6161 0 0 7514 6864 7327 8236 7800 6746 6308 Loiyangalani 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8150 10000 0 8000 8000 5000 Maikona 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6000 0 4750 0 10,000 North Horr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7250 0 District Avg. 8583 7428 6500 7015 0 4223 7514 8004 7360 8236 6810 6165 6917

5 b) Goat • Average goat prices currently reduced by ksh. 27.40 compared to previous month. • The least goat prices was fetched in Maikona division where a one year old sale at an average of Kshs. 239.00 • These reducing prices are caused by thin goat body condition. • This has negatively affected food situation.

The table below shows average goat prices (Kshs) per division Divisions Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2005 2006 Central 0 1000 1167 800 0 0 0 920 833 0 800 0 809 Laisamis 550 834 954 649 0 774 773 958 791 800 711 409.5 705. Loiyangalani 900 767 863 745 0 832 831 744 967 667 600 747.5 700 Maikona 739 765 730 778 0 1038 1039 938 913 1020 790 670 239 North Horr 757 897 777 675 0 922 0 1003 748 828 933 735 0 District Avg. 733 796 858 719 0 849 837 913 850 829 958 640 613.40

c) Sheep • Average sheep price has increased by ksh. 67.00 compared to previous month. • The least average prices of sheep were noted in Maikona division for ksh 239.00 • Decreasing sheep price is exaggerated by poor body conditions. • This has negatively affected food situation.

The table below shows average sheep prices (Kshs) per division Divisions Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 05 2006 Central 0 0 800 0 0 0 0 800 1000 0 1300 0 800 Laisamis 546 475 500 583 0 645 645 655 897 626 542 390 575 Loiyangalani 0 625 650 500 0 657 657 700 0 525 500 779 0 Maikona 533 652 729 634 0 877 877 651 679 1100 510 580 239 North Horr 737 788 773 727 0 825 0 811 748 837 780 672 0 District Avg. 609 682 683 632 0 730 706 723 816 772 722 605 538

2.2. Food prices (Kshs.) 2.2.1 Maize • Average maize prices have slightly increased by ksh.1.00 compared to previous month. • Increasing maize price is attributed by poor maize harvest for the current short rainy season. • . Indeed, maize price is expected to increase soon with uneven maize harvest of inadequate short rain period. Maize prices were higher and stable in Laisamis and Loiyangalani divisions. • This is negatively affecting food situation.

6 The table below shows average maize prices (Kshs) per division Divisions Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 05 y 06 Central 15 20 15 15 14. 15 15 15 15. 15 18 0 17 4 5 Laisamis 27 27 9 29 30 26.5 28 26 27 27 27 27 28 Loiyangalani 0 0 28 25 29 29 27.5 30 29 29 30 25 25 Maikona 20 20 24 22 25 25 25 22 27 22 21 21 19 North Horr 30 29 28 25 24 25 25 25 25 22 24 25 22 District Avg. 24 25 26 25 24 25 25 24 25 23 24 21 22

2.2.4 Posho • Average posho prices fairly increased by Ksh. 2.80 compared to previous month. • Average posho price is expected to increase with the failure of the previous short rainy period that has resulted to severe drought situation in the district. • Posho consumption remain the most diet in the district • Posho prices were higher and stable in Loiyangalani, Maikona, North Horr and Laisamis divisions. • This has negative impact toward food situation.

The table below shows average posho prices (Kshs) per division Divisions Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 05 06 Central 29 30 30 30 24 18 18 23 20 15 22 15 23 Laisamis 17.5 29 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 Loiyangalani 30 30 30 30 30.5 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 Maikona 31.5 31. 28 30 33 35 35 32 28 30 26 22 28 5 North Horr 33.5 32 28 25 30.5 19 28.5 34 31 30 30 30 30 District Avg. 30 30 25.5 25 24.5 29 29 30 28 27 28 25 27.80

2.3 Crop production • Agro/pastoralists communities on Mt Marsabit (Central and Gadhamoji divisions) were engaged on harvesting their minimal crop harvest for the previous short rains period. • Cereal and legume prices are expected to hike following the failure of the previous short rainy period. • Crop production is expected to be minimal due inadequate amount of short rains.

3.0 HUMAN WELFARE INDICATORS 3.1 Human health. • In the review period, no significant disease outbreak noted in most parts of the district. Isolated cases of malaria, diarrhea and coughs are reported among children in Maikona and Loiyangalani divisions as result of changing weather condition. • The current threat felt is food scarcity which has attributed to rampart malnutrition rates especially among adults in lowland parts of the district.

7 • The district has been experiencing household food insecurity in the last few months. The drought of the last year so the district was placed under emergency operation plan (EMOP) unfortunately it was terminated prematurely while several parts of the district has not fully recovered from the adverse effects of the previous drought.

3.2 Food aid • During the month under review there are reported increasing relief food supplies by 20% compared to previous month. These relieve foods were dominated with con soy bean, Maize, Pulses, milk and Oil was donated by GoK, WFP and Red Cross Society of Kenya. • A beneficiary received an average of 6kg maize, Con soy bean 3kgs, 100ml oil, and 2.0kgs pulses from all relief sources. These minimal distributions translate that, the targeted population of the district (90% of the needy households) are not yet reached by approximately 26%. However, cereal relief fairly increased by 16% compared to previous month. • Although, pastoralist diets was dominated by 70% from relief foods compared to previous month, but yet Medic-care support is much more required given the fact that impact of drought on children and elderly have exacerbated vulnerability due to nutritive stress . • The GoK relief foods are not reaching the needy people in the required time due to transportation hindrance. The 8000 x 90kgs bags which were allocated from GOK are not yet delivered in the Cereal board. • Minimal and untimely food aid to the district and its communities has negative impact toward food security situation.

3.3 Nutritional status • Nutritional status of children below 5 years shows, At risk category currently increased by 1.78%, Normal increased by 3.04% and severe malnutrition decreased by 0.54% compared to previous month. • Malnutrition rates are rampantly noted in North Horr, Maikona, Loiyangalani, Korr, Balesa, Kalacha and Log logo sample areas. • Increasing malnutrition rates among children is attributed by poor feeding habit as a result of famine situation in the district. • No significant disease outbreak reported. Indeed, malnutrition rates are commonly observed in lowland parts of the district that need special attention and supplementary for instance, Medicare on such vulnerable community. • MSF project organized a rapid nutritional survey at North Horr, Loiyangalani and parts of Laisamis divisions yet the results are not shared.

The table below shows average nutritional status (MUAC- %) Category Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2005 2006 At risk 18.6 19.13 22.5 18 19.7 15.8 20.33 19 21.6 18.34 23 26.46 28.28 Moderate 2.56 1.3 4.7 2 2.97 12 0 3 30.54 2.55 12.55 6.12 19.16 Severe 0.00 0.00 0.1 0.00 10.58 3.97 3.32 2.83 1.76 1.26 0.83 1.85 1.31

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Nutiritional status of children (MUAC-%)

45

40

35

30

25 At risk

% Moderate 20 Severe

15

10

5

0 Feb-05 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb-06 District

3.4 Insecurity/Conflicts • Security situation has fairly improved in most parts of the district while in Loiyangalani and North Horr divisions are reported continuing livestock theft and 3 Turkana killed by Gabbra community. • In the month under review, there were reported 6 lost camels from loiyangalani division were returned to the Turkana community in Loiyangalani sub location from Gus sub location. • In addition, Turkana bandits from Turkana district crossed the Lake Turkana through Moite sub location and raided livestock of Gabra community causing 5 deaths and six injuries, loss of livestock

• Insecurity situation is expected to increase as normal on rainy seasons. • The previous insecurity situation has left tangible poverty in the district hence food scarcity at household level.

3.5 Migration • Livestock migration reduced in most parts of the district compared to previous month. • Livestock movements toward Mt. Marsabit forest are reported due to prolonged drought situation. • Distant livestock concentration translates that pastoralist’s purchasing powers are substantially affected.

9 • There is observed cattle movement from Arapal sub location to eastern shores of Loiyangalani to feed on weeds in the lake being one of the coping strategies currently applied as eventually of such drastic period.

4.0 CURRENT MITIGATION MEASURES • CDD Component conducted a 1No. PICD trainings in Dubu kutura community in Kalacha location and mobilizing resources for implementation of the current micro projects- ALRMP • The GoK, Red Cross and WFP continued relief supply for the month. • Continued water tankering to El- Hade, Turbi and Forolle and other areas with acute water shortages of the diverse district. ALRMP, Ministry of Water and PISP • Organized 1No. Peace meetings in the district. • A five days field visit was organized by District drought management to capture the current drought situation and follow up on the EWS activities.

CONSTRAINTS • The current constraint for the duration is drought stress that has kept all developmental activities to a standstill condition. • 5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS • Relief food distribution should target 90% of the district needy population of 126,000 persons in six divisions. • Increase number of the water bowsers for the diverse district to 10No to curb the chronic water shortages. • The GoK to consider school fees payment for Secondary going pupils. • Field monitors refresher course be organized on the newly REWAS 3 questionnaires –ALRMP • The veterinary and concerned authorities and institution should provide urgent measures on deadly rabies incidences in Loiyangalani division.

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