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Local Market Intelligence Residential Market Overview the Grove (Tarneit)

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Local Market Intelligence Residential Market Overview the Grove (Tarneit) Local Market Intelligence Residential Market Overview The Grove (Tarneit) Leaders in Property Intelligence. January 2020 charterkc.com.au ADVISORY. RESEARCH. VALUATIONS. PROJECTS. The Melbourne Story Metropolitan Melbourne: Key Considerations INTRODUCTION Education Melbourne continues to emerge as a city of Liveability international significance. It was ranked as 2 Universities in the Top 100 the world’s most liveable city for seven consecutive years between 2011-2017 and Most Liveable Cities Global Universities was ranked second in 2018 and 2019. (University of Melbourne = 32nd (7 Consecutive Times, 2011-2017) There are highly regarded educational and Monash University = 84th) institutions in Melbourne, with two universities ranked in the top 100 global universities. Economic Activity Strong Employment Growth Victoria, the second-largest economy in Australia, recorded strong growth (+3.0% +3.0 % +1.9% growth over FY 18/19) outperforming the +100,000 Jobs wider Australian economy (+1.9% over FY (Victorian Economic (Australian Economic 12 months to November 2019 (Trend) 18/19) Growth 2018-2019) Growth 2018-2019) Melbourne continues to evolve and create opportunities not available elsewhere in Australia. DEMAND CONSIDERATIONS Victoria Population Growth Victoria is the fastest-growing state in Recent Future Population Growth Australia and has recorded the highest 2018 (2016-2051) population growth rate since Q3-2015. The 139,450 New Residents majority of this growth has occurred within +2.2% 1.5% p.a. (86,000 – Overseas Migration, 13,200 - Net Interstate metropolitan Melbourne. Strong population Migration, 40,250 - Natural Increase growth is anticipated to continue into the Australia = + 1.6% p.a. Australia = + 1.6% p.a. future. Victoria in Future 2019 projections forecast that between the 2016 – 2051 period Future Housing Requirements Economic Opportunities metropolitan Melbourne will add an additional 1.57 million households. 1.57 Million Dwellings Diversity of Employment Melbourne is a multicultural city with large international migration underpinned by its Metropolitan Melbourne’s (Not reliant on a Single Industry education institutions and diverse Requirements 2016 - 2051 of Employment) economic base. The diversity of population and strong economic base underpins diversity in housing requirements across Melbourne. SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS Existing Housing Composition Composition of Future Housing Supply Melbourne’s housing stock is predominantly represented by detached housing, however, policy aspirations aim to achieve greater levels of higher density 15% : 17% : 68% 31% : 36% : 34% dwellings to accommodate future (Higher Density) :(Medium Density) :(Detached Houses) (Higher Density) :(Medium Density):(Detached Houses) population growth. (2016) (2011 -2051) House price growth in Melbourne has been high over the last decade and supported House Price Growth the development of higher-density stock. Greenfield Lot Sales House prices moderated through 2018 (5 Year Annual Average) (10 Year Annual Average) before increasing again over 2019. 13,000 Annual Lot Sales Melbourne continues to remain the leading +4.2% p.a. +5.4% p.a. Australia (weighted capital Australia (weighted capital supplier of new greenfield lots across city average) = +1.6% p.a. city average) = +3.8% p.a. (2014 - 2018) Australia with an average of 13,000 lot sales recorded per annum over the 2014 – 2018 period. 1 As at the 2016 Census. Additionally, apartments are dwellings in buildings with 4 or more levels. *Refer to end of report for all sources used in compiling this report. Local Market Intelligence The Grove (Tarneit) KEY CONSIDERATIONS MARKET INDICATORS DEMAND INDICATORS SUPPLY INDICATORS AFFORDABILITY: Tarneit offers 25 – 44 year olds 500 Lot Sales an affordable alternative when $550,000 compared to the broader Tarneit 2019 median house price The predominant age cohort Limited lot sales across 2018 metropolitan Melbourne region. (Metro Melbourne = $690,000). across Tarneit accounting for (2,000 sales in 2017) 40% of all residents. +12.3% p.a. PROXIMITY TO THE CBD: 28 km Couples with Children Detached Housing Tarneit 10 year average annual from the CBD, Tarneit is closer Largest household type across 80% of dwellings in Tarneit are house price growth to the Melbourne CBD than most Tarneit accounting for 58% of all detached houses (Metro Melbourne = 5.8% p.a.). other greenfield locations. households. (Metro Melbourne = 68%) $560,000 30 Years: Median Age AMENITY: Tarneit possesses a Owner Occupiers Wyndham LGA 2019 median Younger age demographic than higher level of amenity than 71% of houses are owned outright house price metropolitan Melbourne. other greenfield locations due to or owned subject to a mortgage. the presence of a railway station (See page 2 for more info.) (Metro Melbourne = 36 years.). (See page 4 for more info.) and multiple shopping centres . (See page 3 for more info.) LIVEABILITY AND LIFESTYLE CONNECTIVITY SUBURB CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS Numerous watercourses run 28km west of the Melbourne » Tarneit is a suburb within the City through the suburb including; CBD. of Wyndham Local Government Werribee River, Skeleton Creek, Direct connectivity to the CBD, Area (LGA), located approximately Tarneit Creek and Davis Creek. via Sayers and Leakes Roads 28km west of the Melbourne CBD. Numerous parks are located which connect to the Princes throughout the suburb’s many Freeway. » Significant residential housing developments. The development in Tarneit first Werribee Mansion and the Proximity to the Melbourne CBD began in the mid 2000s prior to Werribee Open Range Zoo, are and Laverton North Industrial precinct. that the area was an undeveloped both within close proximity. Tarneit Station provides a direct rural locality mostly comprising Tarneit Central Shopping Centre connection to both the Melbourne farmland. is situated in the heart of the CBD and Geelong via a Vline suburb, anchoring major retailers. service, additional rail » The suburb is bounded by Other shopping centres include connectivity to the CBD is Truganina to the east, Hoppers Wyndham Village SC, Tarneit provided via metro services from Crossing and Werribee to the Gardens SC, and Tarneit West SC. Hoppers Crossing and Werribee Pacific Werribee in Hoppers south and Wyndham Vale to the Stations. Numerous bus routes Crossing is the nearest super- west. run through the suburb, providing regional shopping centre a connection to the train stations, containing most major retailers. » Tarneit is predominantly a and key shopping precincts. residential suburb, with small Tarneit has numerous Primary & pockets of retail activity located Federation Trail provides access Secondary schools. Victoria to the Inner West and Melbourne throughout. The western and University’s Werribee Campus is CBD. Skeleton Creek trail and northern portions of the suburb also in close proximity. Werribee river trail are also are presently undeveloped but popular. Werribee Mercy & St. Vincent will support additional housing Approximately 30 minutes drive Private Hospitals anchor over the coming years. to both Melbourne Airport and Wyndham’s major medical Avalon Airport via Princes » precinct located in the nearby Freeway and Western Ring suburb of Werribee. Road. Market Considerations 2 PRICE INDICATORS MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE & AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE – TARNEIT (1995 - 2019) The 2019 median house price in Tarneit was $550,000, which is lower than that of both metropolitan Melbourne ($690,000) and the Wyndham LGA ($560,000). Since its establishment as a residential suburb, Tarneit has experienced stronger housing price growth than both the Wyndham LGA and metropolitan Melbourne with prices increasing by 12.3% p.a. since 2009. Recent housing price growth across both Tarneit and the Wyndham LGA has significantly outpaced that of metropolitan Melbourne. Tarneit is a highly sought after location within the Wyndham LGA evidenced by its strong recent price *These are the figures from APM and reflect the transacted and settled sales recorded by APM. growth. Historically housing prices in Tarneit have mirrored those of the Wyndham LGA . PRICE RELATIVITY 2019 MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (ALL BEDROOMS) – TARNEIT & SURROUNDING SUBURBS In comparison to other surrounding suburbs in the Wyndham LGA, Tarneit with a 2019 median of $550,000 contains a higher median house price than the older more established Wyndham suburbs of Hoppers Crossing ($520,000) and Werribee ($505,000). Tarneit has greater established infrastructure than the other greenfield markets in the region through the provision of shopping centres and a railway station. Tarneit’s strong amenity will continue to drive demand into the future with housing price growth likely to remain strong. RENT AL MARKET INDICATORS MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS & AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE (HOUSES - 3 BEDROOMS)* At the end of Q2-2019, median weekly rents for a 3 bedroom house in the Werribee – Hoppers Crossing district ($350 p.w.) were less than the metropolitan Melbourne equivalent ($400 p.w.).* Rental price growth across the Werribee – Hoppers Crossing district has outpaced that of metropolitan Melbourne over the last 3,5, and 10 years. Despite the low weekly median rent, the Werribee – Hoppers Crossing district is experiencing high rental growth in comparison to metropolitan Melbourne, indicating demand for *These rents are taken from the Department of Human Services (DHS) and are based on the DHS geographies. The DHS rental properties in the area. does not separately classify Tarneit in its data and so the
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