DOCSLIB.ORG

Afghanistan Must Avoid an Iraq-Style Breakdown Lisa Curtis

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Afghanistan Must Avoid an Iraq-Style Breakdown Lisa Curtis BACKGROUNDER No. 3038 | JULY 23, 2015 U.S. Engagement Required: Afghanistan Must Avoid an Iraq-Style Breakdown Lisa Curtis Abstract The surprise success of ISIS in a single year, since July 2014, which has Key Points put the future of Iraq in jeopardy, has prompted concern among U.S. policymakers that, as U.S. and coalition forces depart, Afghan forces n This past year’s surprise success could face a similar threat from the Taliban. While Afghanistan does of the Islamic State, which has put not face the same Sunni–Shia sectarian divisions that have fueled the the future of Iraq in jeopardy, has prompted concern among U.S. fighting in Iraq, the Afghan government remains dependent on inter- policymakers that, as U.S. and national financial support, and the Afghan security forces require U.S. coalition forces depart, Afghan air support, equipment, training, and intelligence to maintain an edge forces could face a similar threat over the Taliban. Similar to Iraq, Afghanistan could quickly erupt into from the Taliban. chaos if U.S. and international forces depart as hastily as scheduled. n The Afghan government remains The U.S. should continue to lead coalition efforts to help stabilize Af- dependent on international ghanistan by leaving a residual U.S. force in the country as long as nec- financial support, and the Afghan essary, and drop all arbitrary deadlines for withdrawal. The successful security forces require U.S. air March 2015 visit to the U.S. by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his support, equipment, training, and coalition partner, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, demonstrates intelligence to maintain an edge that there is an opening to build a more effective and long-lasting U.S.– over the Taliban. Afghan partnership to deny global terrorists the opportunity to revive n The U.S. should continue to lead their base of operations in the country. coalition efforts to help stabilize Afghanistan and leave a residual U.S. force in the country as long his past year’s surprise success of the Islamic State (ISIS), as necessary, dropping all arbi- Twhich has put the future of Iraq in jeopardy, has prompted con- trary deadlines for withdrawal. cern among U.S. policymakers that, as U.S. and coalition forces n Washington should also main- depart, Afghan forces could face a similar threat from the Taliban. tain assistance programs that While Afghanistan does not face the same Sunni–Shia sectarian help bolster democratic trends divisions that have fueled the fighting in Iraq, the Afghan govern- and contribute to economic ment remains dependent on international financial support, and development and regional the Afghan security forces require U.S. air support, equipment, economic integration. n Focusing on a long-term strategy This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3038 of engagement with Afghanistan The Heritage Foundation will contribute to regional stabil- 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE ity and deny global terrorists the Washington, DC 20002 opportunity to revive their base of (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org operations in the country. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3038 JULY 23, 2015 training, and intelligence to maintain an edge over parliamentary form of governance. The National the Taliban. Similar to Iraq, Afghanistan could Unity Government Agreement states that the presi- quickly erupt into chaos if U.S. and international dent and chief executive will make policy decisions forces depart as hastily as scheduled, especially if in consultation with the cabinet, which is run by the financial and diplomatic support for the National president. The chief executive, in turn, is respon- Unity Government dwindles. sible for managing the cabinet’s implementation of The U.S. should continue to lead coalition efforts government policies and chairing weekly meetings to help stabilize Afghanistan by leaving a residual of the Council of Ministers. The agreement holds U.S. force in the country as long as necessary. The that the two sides will hold a Loya Jirga (consulta- White House decision in late March to extend the U.S. tive assembly) by the end of 2016 to amend the con- troop presence in Afghanistan by at least six months stitution and convert the chief executive position was welcome, but the Administration should drop into a permanent prime minister position. all arbitrary deadlines for withdrawal. Although the U.S. aid footprint will inevitably diminish, Washing- U.S. Extends Troop Presence ton should maintain assistance programs that help as Attacks Escalate bolster democratic trends, contribute to economic Shortly after assuming power, Ghani signed the development and regional economic integration, and U.S.–Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement that can be insulated from the pervasive corruption (BSA), paving the way for the U.S. to leave a residual that plagues Afghan society. The successful March non-combat force presence in the country. Presi- visit to the U.S. by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani dent Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah held suc- and his coalition partner, Chief Executive Abdullah cessful meetings in Washington in March, secur- Abdullah, demonstrates that there is an opening to ing a commitment to a long-term partnership from build a more effective and long-lasting U.S.–Afghan President Barack Obama, as well as an extension of partnership that can contribute to regional stability the American troop presence by keeping 9,800 U.S. and deny global terrorists the opportunity to revive forces in place at least through the end of this year. their base of operations in the country. During an address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, President Ghani went to great lengths to Unity Government Forms extend Afghanistan’s appreciation for U.S. sacrific- Following a three-month political crisis over es in the country, while making clear that the ulti- allegations of voter fraud in the presidential run- mate goal of his government is to establish Afghan off election held last June, the contenders signed a self-reliance. He touted the fact that three million power-sharing agreement on September 21, 2014, Afghan girls are enrolled in primary school and that in which Ashraf Ghani was made president and the average Afghan lifespan had increased from 44 Abdullah Abdullah the chief executive. The two years to over 60 years since 2002.1 Ghani received leaders appear genuinely committed to making the a warm welcome from U.S. congressional mem- power-sharing deal work, but delays in establish- bers, relieved to see the departure of former Presi- ing a cabinet demonstrate the inherent challenges dent Hamid Karzai, who frequently criticized the of sharing governance between competing bases of U.S. role in Afghanistan and had become toxic to power. It took nearly five months to put into place the relationship. the finance, foreign affairs, and interior ministers, Last year, President Obama had pledged to cut U.S. and the government has still not appointed a defense force levels to 5,500 by the end of 2015, and then to minister, the head of the supreme court, and many zero by the end of 2016. But President Ghani’s request provincial governors. earlier this year that the U.S. reconsider the timeline With the establishment of the National Unity for withdrawal, and growing concern among U.S. Government, Afghanistan has shifted from a presi- policymakers about the potential for Afghanistan’s dential system to a combination of a presidential and security to deteriorate in the absence of international 1. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Office of the President, “President Ghani’s Address to the U.S. Congress,” March 25, 2015, http://president.gov.af/en/news/president-ghanis-address-to-the-us-congress (accessed June 29, 2015). 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3038 JULY 23, 2015 forces (similar to the situation in Iraq last summer), Even so, the number of Afghan security forces led the White House to adjust its withdrawal sched- (police and army) killed or wounded increased by ule slightly by keeping more troops in Afghanistan 70 percent in the first four months of this year com- at least until the end of 2015. The White House says pared to last year.4 The fighting is also taking a heavy it remains committed to withdrawing all U.S. forces, toll on the civilian population. The United Nations except those necessary to protect the U.S. embassy, says there has been a 16 percent increase in civilian by the end of 2016. President Ghani’s willingness to casualties in the first four months of 2015 (around agree to U.S. terms for military engagement, such as 1,000 killed and 2,000 injured).5 easing restrictions on U.S. night raids and air strikes, The Taliban began its annual spring offensive in likely also contributed to the White House decision April and has intensified fighting in all parts of the to extend the U.S. troop presence. country, including in Helmand, Uruzgan, Kunduz, There are around 13,200 U.S. and NATO forces and Balkh provinces. In late April, the Taliban over- currently stationed in Afghanistan as part of the ran several outposts in Kunduz in the north, and Resolution Support mission to train and advise came close to taking the provincial capital, causing Afghan forces. NATO formally ended combat opera- 100,000 Afghans to flee their homes. The Afghan tions last December, but coalition forces regularly Army sent reinforcements to the area but the region conduct airstrikes in support of the Afghan forces, is still being contested with the Taliban capturing and American Special Operations Forces (current- two districts near the capital in late June.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S
    Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy (name redacted) Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs (name redacted) Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs November 7, 2017 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov RL30588 Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy Summary The United States, partner countries, and the Afghan government are attempting to reverse recent gains made by the resilient Taliban-led insurgency since the December 2014 transition to a smaller international mission consisting primarily of training and advising the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). The Afghan government has come under increasing domestic criticism not only for failing to prevent insurgent gains but also for its internal divisions that have spurred the establishment of new political opposition coalitions. In September 2014, the United States brokered a compromise to address a dispute over the 2014 presidential election, but a September 2016 deadline was not met for enacting election reforms and deciding whether to elevate the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) position to a prime ministership. The Afghan government has made some measurable progress in reducing corruption and implementing its budgetary and other commitments. It has adopted measures that would enable it to proceed with new parliamentary elections, but no election date has been set. The number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, which peaked at about 100,000 in 2011, is about 9,800, of which most are assigned to the 13,000-person NATO-led “Resolute Support Mission” (RSM) that trains, assists, and advises the ANDSF. About 2,000 of the U.S. contingent are involved in combat against Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, including the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State organization (ISIL-Khorasan), under “Operation Freedom’s Sentinel” (OFS).
    [Show full text]
  • Transition in Afghanistan: Losing the Forgotten War?
    burke chair in strategy Transition in Afghanistan: Losing the Forgotten War? The Need to Reshape US Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia By Anthony H. Cordesman January 26, 2015 Request for comments: This report is a draft that will be turned into an electronic book. Comments and suggested changes would be greatly appreciated. Please send any comments to Anthony H. Cordsman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, at [email protected]. ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Cordesman: Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia January 2015 ii On December 29, 2014, the US President and Secretary of Defense announced the formal end to Operation Enduring Freedom, its combat mission in Afghanistan, which had begun in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks. They also stated that the US would begin its follow-on mission, Operation Freedom's Sentinel, at the start of 2015. The President and the Secretary of Defense made these announcements with all the usual rhetorical flourishes and statements about success, future commitments, and host government progress of the kind top US officials made at the end of the Vietnam and Iraq conflicts. The President also implied that this Transition had ended America’s longest war, although Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel made it clear that relabeling the mission did not fully end America’s military role: 1 Operation Freedom's Sentinel, the United States will pursue two missions with the support of the Afghan government and the Afghan people. We will work with our allies and partners as part of NATO's Resolute Support Mission to continue training, advising, and assisting Afghan security forces.
    [Show full text]
  • Karzai's Diplomacy of Hopes and Wishes
    ISAS Insights No. 227 – 12 September 2013 469A Bukit Timah Road #07-01, Tower Block, Singapore 259770 Tel: 6516 6179 / 6516 4239 Fax: 6776 7505 / 6314 5447 Email: [email protected] Website: www.isas.nus.edu.sg Karzai’s Diplomacy of Hopes and Wishes Sajjad Ashraf1 Speaking to reporters before leaving Kabul for Islamabad towards the end of August 2013, Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai sounded resigned when he said: “I will travel to Pakistan hoping to get a result out of it. I’m hopeful, but not sure, I will only go with hopes; and wish they materialise”. Mr Karzai’s 20th trip to Pakistan since 2002, the first in 18 months and the first since Nawaz Sharif assumed office as its Prime Minister for the third time, came when Afghanistan is in the process of an important political and security transition. Afghan presidential election, which Mr Karzai cannot contest due to term limits, is scheduled for April 2014. The United States’ troops-withdrawal, announced for the end of 2014, will then follow. In between he faces the challenging question of how many troops the US can leave behind and under what conditions. The residual forces will continue to be a source of military conflict amongst various factions of Afghans. While the current dispensation survives because of the presence of foreign forces, Afghan resistance in the shape of Taliban wants them out. In addition, the never-comfortable relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, each country vital for peace in the other and in the wider region, have been getting strained in the recent past.
    [Show full text]
  • Training the Afghan National Army
    No. 128 Sentinels of Afghan Democracy: The Afghan National Army Samuel Chan S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Singapore 1 June 2007 With Compliments This Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed are entirely the author’s own and not that of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies The S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) was established in January 2007 as an autonomous School within the Nanyang Technological University. RSIS’s mission is to be a leading research and graduate teaching institution in strategic and international affairs in the Asia Pacific. To accomplish this mission, it will: • Provide a rigorous professional graduate education in international affairs with a strong practical and area emphasis • Conduct policy-relevant research in national security, defence and strategic studies, diplomacy and international relations • Collaborate with like-minded schools of international affairs to form a global network of excellence Graduate Training in International Affairs RSIS offers an exacting graduate education in international affairs, taught by an international faculty of leading thinkers and practitioners. The Master of Science (MSc) degree programmes in Strategic Studies, International Relations, and International Political Economy are distinguished by their focus on the Asia Pacific, the professional practice of international affairs, and the cultivation of academic depth. Over 120 students, the majority from abroad, are enrolled in these programmes. A small, select Ph.D. programme caters to advanced students whose interests match those of specific faculty members. RSIS also runs a one-semester course on ‘The International Relations of the Asia Pacific’ for undergraduates in NTU.
    [Show full text]
  • Khoshal Khan in the Last Four Centuries
    Vol-6 Issue-6 2020 IJARIIE-ISSN(O)-2395-4396 Khoshal Khan in the last four centuries Author: Teaching Assistant, Shir Gul Zaland Shinwar Head and Instructor of Pashto Department of Language and Literature Faculty Parwan State University, Afghanistan The value of happiness if not in anyone now He will be remembered after death if he knows more 1- Introduction: It is true that no one appreciated his life, but it is still remembered, nurtured and researched even after hundreds of years. They are leaders and they are miserable. Baba's everlasting blessings on the Pashtun nation have not only attracted the attention of the writers and cultural figures of this nation, but also international critics admit that Khushal was a genius and great writer of his time. Elphinstone is a foreign writer and critic who has happily compared himself to some of the region's best-known poets and writers, describing the outcome of his critique as follows: "Ferdowsi, Saadi and Hafiz, when they come together, make one happy." In this article, we examine the four-hundred-year process written on Khushal Khan Khattak, in which foreign and domestic scholars first began to study it. And some seminars have been created and written on it and we have also brought out the book on which someone has written the introduction or notes. 2- Original text: The full story of Khushal Khattak is described in the year of his grandson Afzal Khan Khattak (5 AH) in Tarikh-e-Marsa and also five years after that the hidden treasure of Khan is mentioned, the first Pam Khan in the nineteenth century, when the British turned towards Afghanistan, began to see and research Khan's relics there, as well as to introduce them to the West.
    [Show full text]
  • PANJWAI MASSACRE TIMELINE Table of Contents
    PANJWAI MASSACRE TIMELINE The primary sources used in this December, 2015 timeline are the sworn statements and other evidence obtained by U.S. Army criminal investigators (Military Police soldiers, aka CID Special Agents) for CID's 2013 Report of Investigation (ROI), as released by the Army in mid-2014 to The News Tribune newspaper of Tacoma, WA, in response to the newspaper's Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request(s), and to the public by The News Tribune in March, 2015. The Army withheld 1,300 pages, and heavily redacted the 1,500 pages released, hiding names in particular, so deciphering – by blogger “pow wow” in collaboration with multimedia journalist Lela Ahmadzai – preceded the compiling of this timeline and its illustrated online summary. Table of Contents (Click page links to quickly reach text sections) December 14, 2011 Page 3 U.S. Army Staff Sergeant Robert Bales Reached Village Stability Platform Belamby December 20, 2011 Page 12 List Of Weapons Issued To SSG Bales By B Company, 2-3 Infantry Monday, March 5, 2012 Afternoon | Pag e 12 Two IED Explosions Injured VSP Belamby Soldiers And Sailor Early Evening | Pag e 15 Local Men Ordered To Gather To Hear U.S. Special Forces Captain Thursday, March 8, 2012 8:00 AM-2:00 PM | Pag e 17 SSG Bales Joined A Patrol To Forward Operating Base Zangabad, Then Helped Bomb A Tree Friday, March 9, 2012 5:00 AM-6:00 AM | Page 19 Video Of War Dead Viewed On The Personal Computer Of SSG Bales Saturday, March 10, 2012 Evening | Page 20 SSG Bales Criticized The U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Afghanistan and Transnational War: Interlocking Security Dilemmas and Strategic Challenges
    Afghanistan and transnational war: Interlocking security dilemmas and strategic challenges Nishank Motwani A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences UNSW Canberra November 2015 Abstract Following the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, the United States and Afghan governments have sought, with little success, to resolve Afghanistan’s regional problems through a political framework intended to knit the region together. This thesis investigates the reasons why a regional solution to the conflict in Afghanistan has not gained traction. Traditional understandings of the security dilemma are conceptually refined, operationally expanded and thematically analysed. Conceptually, a distinction is drawn between genuine security dilemmas, involving benign actors, and strategic challenges, involving actors with malign intent. Operationally, bilateral formulations of the security dilemma are expanded to demonstrate the occurrence of multiple interlocking security dilemmas. Thematically, a case study method is used to explore these security conditions in terms of the structural, contextual and cognitive dynamics impeding regional cooperation. Three findings emerge. First, Afghan leaders and their backers have failed to address key structural impediments, such as competing notions of security and regional stability, rival strategic interests and opposing power ambitions. The Afghan Taliban’s absolute goals, Pakistan’s malign orientation, and Saudi Arabia’s anti-Iranian and Salafist ideology have proved most debilitating. Second, the metastases of Southwest Asia’s unresolved contextual reality tax an already rickety mechanism. The legacy of fraught historical relations, territorial disputes, state and non-state spoilers, armed conflict, and the effects of the Indian-Pakistani nuclear deterrent taints the politico-social environment, stymieing efforts to allay entrenched suspicions.
    [Show full text]
  • Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S
    Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs February 24, 2015 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL30588 Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy Summary As of January 1, 2015, the United States and its partner countries have completed a transition to a smaller post-2014 mission consisting mostly, but not exclusively, of training the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). The number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, which peaked at about 100,000 in June 2011, has been reduced to about 10,500, of which most are trainers and advisers as part of a 13,000-person NATO-led “Resolute Support Mission.” About 1,000 of the U.S. contingent are counter-terrorism forces that continue to conduct combat, operating under a new U.S. “Operation Freedom’s Sentinel” that replaces the post-September 11 “Operation Enduring Freedom.” President Obama directed in May 2014 that the U.S. force will shrink during 2015 to about 5,000 by the end of this year, and their presence after 2015 will be exclusively in Kabul and at Bagram Airfield. The post-2016 U.S. force is to be several hundred military personnel, under U.S. Embassy authority. However, doubts about the ability of the ANSF to operate without substantial international backing have led to recent U.S. alterations of the post- 2014 U.S. rules of engagement and to U.S. command statements that the 2015-16 drawdown plan might be altered. Deploying a post-2014 international force was contingent on Afghanistan’s signing a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States and a similar document with NATO.
    [Show full text]
  • Leaderless Country: a Study of Pakistan
    China-USA Business Review, Sep. 2017, Vol. 16, No. 9, 403-411 doi: 10.17265/1537-1514/2017.09.001 D DAVID PUBLISHING Leaderless Country: A Study of Pakistan Khalid Mehtabdin The College of Saint Rose, Albany, USA Pakistan is a country built on the foundation of Islam and religious freedom. The purpose of this paper is to discuss why, though, it is not yet a unified nation despite its annexation from India in 1947. Also, the purpose of this paper is to bring up and answer several other questions regarding Pakistan, including: the Kashmir issue, water shortage, general malaise of the economy, and overall sectarian conflicts, along with terrorism, and also how to attract foreign investment. Without a strong infrastructure in place, Pakistan has struggled to gain the foreign investment required of a struggling economy to grow. The political and religious factions of this country have yet to find a way to work together to unite its people. The general poverty and lack of education in Pakistan has limited its people’s opportunities to productively contribute to the global economy, and has allowed religious extremists to gain a foothold. The violence and terror that has occurred has further limited foreign interest in investing in such a volatile country. All of these factors contribute to the need for a strong leader in Pakistan if there is to be any progress made in the coming years. Leaders inspire people, but ever since the partition days, no leader has been able to move the country forward. There’s an urgent need, now, for someone who would advance the national interests rather than personal interests.
    [Show full text]
  • Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy
    Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs September 21, 2012 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL30588 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy Summary The Obama Administration and several of its partner countries are seeking to reduce U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan while continuing to build Afghan governing and security capacity to defend the country by the end of 2014. To secure longer term U.S. gains, on May 1, 2012, President Obama signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement that will likely keep some (perhaps 15,000—20,000) U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014 as advisors and trainers. Until then, the United States and its partners will continue to transfer overall security responsibility to Afghan security forces, with Afghan forces to assume the lead nationwide by mid-2013. As lead responsibility shifts, the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, which peaked at about 100,000 in June 2011, has been reduced to the “pre-surge” level of 68,000 as of September 20, 2012. President Obama has said that “reductions will continue at a steady pace” from then until the completion of the transition to Afghan lead at the end of 2014. However, the transition process has been hampered somewhat by a pattern of attacks by Afghan forces on their coalition mentors and trainers. In keeping with the Strategic Partnership Agreement, on July 7, 2012 (one day in advance of a major donors’ conference on Afghanistan in Tokyo) the United States named Afghanistan a “Major Non-NATO Ally,” further assuring Afghanistan of longterm U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Persistent Engagement Civil Military Support Elements Operating in CENTCOM by Major Ross F
    May-June 2010 | Volume 23 | Issue 3 Articles 6 Trauma Training Students in the Special Operations Combat Medic Course work in urban areas and hospitals to learn trauma management firsthand. 10 Preparing for Hybrid Threats Dealing with an adaptive adversary requires that Soldiers out-think the enemy. 14 Persistent Engagement: CMSEs Operating 6 in the CENTCOM AOR Civil-military support elements provide CENTCOM leaders with a unique resource. 24 Back to His Roots An Afghan general revisits the school where he took SF training nearly 40 years ago. 10 DEPARTMENTS 4 From the Commandant ON THE COVER 5 Update Civil Affairs Soldiers conduct decisive military-to-civilian 26 Career Notes engagements in the CENTCOM AOR. 27 Book Reviews U.S. Army photo Special Warfare Commander & Commandant Major General Thomas R. Csrnko Editor Jerry D. Steelman Associate Editor Janice Burton Graphics & Design Jennifer Martin Webmaster Eva Herrera 14 SUBMISSIONS Special Warfare is an authorized, official bimonthly Special Warfare welcomes sub- in a timely manner. Special Warfare publication of the United States Army John F. Kennedy missions of scholarly, independent reserves the right to edit all contribu- Special Warfare Center and School, Fort Bragg, N.C. Its research from members of the armed tions. Special Warfare will attempt to mission is to promote the professional development of special-operations forces by providing a forum for the forces, security policy-makers and afford authors an opportunity to review examination of established doctrine and new ideas. -shapers, defense analysts, aca- the final edited version; requests for Views expressed herein are those of the authors and do demic specialists and civilians from the changes must be received by the not necessarily reflect official Army position.
    [Show full text]
  • Failed State Wars”: the Need for a Realistic Transition
    1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 Anthony H. Cordesman Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Email: [email protected] Web version: www.csis.org/burke/reports Afghanistan and “Failed State Wars”: The Need for a Realistic Transition Anthony H. Cordesman [email protected] September 29, Burke Chair 2015 In Strategy The Four Key Lessons of “Failed State” Wars 9/29/2015 2 The Four Threats That Drive Serious Terrorism and Insurgency (In Order of Priority) • 1. Host Country Government and Security Forces: Authoritarianism, failure to cope with internal divisions, poor governance and corruption, failed economy development and equity, population pressure and youth bulge, repression and violence by internal security forces, traditional and corrupt military. • 2. The Overt “Threat”: Moderate and peaceful beginnings shift to extreme and violent movements that feed on the civil-military divisions and failures of the host country governments. • 3. The U.S. Threat to the U.S.: Relearn counterinsurgency yet again. Separate military (tactical) and civil (project-oriented development) efforts. Threat oriented and downplay Host Country problems. No meaningful overall civil-military plan or net assessment. Rapid rotations with limited expertise. Cycle of denial, flood resources, rush to generate Host country forces, then leave too soon. “Take note” of lessons, then ignore. • 4. Other Nations: Allied, Neutral, Hostile: Allied limits to engagement, national caveats, demands; neutral interference for competing national interests, hostile action because
    [Show full text]