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Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Extension Feasibility Study

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Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Extension Feasibility Study Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Extension Feasibility Study Author Thomas J. Humphrey Data Collection Walter Bennett George Chiasson Tom Engel Stanley Genthner Tom Wilkins Cover Design Maciej Citowicki Graphics Kenneth Dumas Editing Kate Wall The preparation of this document was supported by the Massachusetts Highway Department through SPR contract #39687. Central Transportation Planning Staff Directed by the Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization. The MPO is com- posed of state and regional agencies and authorities, and local governments. January 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. ES-1 Project Description .................................................................................................... ES-1 Ridership Estimates .................................................................................................. ES-3 Capital Cost Estimates .............................................................................................. ES-3 Operating Cost and Revenue Estimates.................................................................. ES-4 Environmental Impact Estimates............................................................................. ES-6 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................1 2. SERVICE AREA AND PRESENT TRANSPORTATION SERVICES...............................3 Extension Service Area ...................................................................................................3 Present Mass Transportation Services in the Extension Service Area ........................3 Express Bus Service to Boston ...............................................................................5 Commuter Rail Service to Boston..........................................................................6 Airline Service to Boston........................................................................................7 Ferry Service to Boston...........................................................................................8 Local Transportation Service in Barnstable County ............................................8 Local Transportation Service in Wareham and Bourne ......................................8 Tourist Train Service on Cape Cod .......................................................................8 Ferry Service between Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket .............8 Present Highway Connections from the Study Area to Boston..................................9 Present Travel Volumes on Transportation Facilities in the Buzzards Bay Extension Service Area..............................................................................................10 Overview of Information Sources .......................................................................10 U.S. Census Journey-to-Work Tabulations.........................................................11 Passenger Counts on Existing Bus Services .......................................................14 Comparisons of Bus Passenger Counts with Census Journey-to-Work Tabulations .........................................................................14 Passenger Counts on Commuter Rail .................................................................15 Rapid Transit Ridership from Buzzards Bay Extension Service Area .............17 Highway Travel Volumes....................................................................................17 3. DESCRIPTION OF POTENTIAL EXTENSION SERVICE..............................................19 Alignment of Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Service .................................................19 North of Middleborough/Lakeville Station.......................................................19 South of Middleborough/Lakeville Station.......................................................19 Station Locations ...........................................................................................................19 Buzzards Bay.........................................................................................................21 Wareham ...............................................................................................................21 Rochester ...............................................................................................................21 Middleborough.....................................................................................................22 Running Times ..............................................................................................................23 North of Middleborough/Lakeville ...................................................................23 South of Middleborough/Lakeville....................................................................23 Total Time to Boston.............................................................................................24 CTPS iii Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Extension Feasibility Study Comparisons of Train Travel Times with Bus and Auto Travel Times....................24 Potential Operating Strategies for Weekday Service .................................................25 Potential Operating Strategies for Weekend and Holiday Service ...........................25 4. DEMAND ESTIMATES FOR AN EXTENSION..............................................................27 Travel Markets to be Served.........................................................................................27 Demand Estimation Method for a Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Extension ..........27 Estimated Ridership on a Buzzards Bay Commuter Rail Extension ........................28 Estimated Ridership for Alternate Weekday Service Strategies ...............................30 Estimated Weekend and Holiday Ridership ..............................................................30 Impacts of Capacity Constraints on Buzzards Bay Extension Ridership .................31 5. CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES FOR AN EXTENSION....................................................33 Main Cost Items Examined ..........................................................................................33 Main Track.....................................................................................................................34 Passing Tracks ...............................................................................................................34 Signals ............................................................................................................................35 Road Crossings at Grade ..............................................................................................35 Bridges............................................................................................................................36 Fencing ...........................................................................................................................37 Station Platforms and Shelters .....................................................................................37 Parking Facilities ...........................................................................................................38 Train Layover Facilities ................................................................................................39 Rolling Stock..................................................................................................................39 Summary of Capital Costs............................................................................................40 6. OPERATING COSTS AND REVENUES FOR AN EXTENSION ..................................41 Operating Cost Estimates .............................................................................................41 Weekday Service Strategies and Costs ...............................................................42 Weekend and Major Holiday Service .................................................................43 Revenue Estimates ........................................................................................................44 Factors Affecting Revenue ...................................................................................44 Assumed Fare Structure.......................................................................................44 Non-Fare Revenue Potential................................................................................44 Adjustments for Diversions from Other MBTA Services..................................45 Estimated Weekday Fare-Revenue at Maximum Service Level.......................45 Estimated Fare-Revenue at Minimum Service Level.........................................46 Estimated Fare-Revenue at Medium Service Level ...........................................46 Estimated Fare-Revenue for Weekends and Major Holidays...........................46 Revenue and Operating Cost Comparisons................................................................47 7. OPERATIONAL ISSUES ...................................................................................................49 Impact of a Buzzards Bay Extension on Other Rail Services.....................................49 Track Capacity Constraints Between Boston and Middleborough/Lakeville.........50 Impact of Curves on Speed Limits on an Extension...................................................51 Necessity for a Passing Siding on an Extension .........................................................52
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