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Process Attribute Monitoring Approach to Gaseous Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Safeguards

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Process Attribute Monitoring Approach to Gaseous Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Safeguards University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 5-2016 Process Attribute Monitoring Approach to Gaseous Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Safeguards Adam Michael Shephard University of Tennessee - Knoxville, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Part of the Nuclear Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Shephard, Adam Michael, "Process Attribute Monitoring Approach to Gaseous Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Safeguards. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2016. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/3745 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Adam Michael Shephard entitled "Process Attribute Monitoring Approach to Gaseous Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Safeguards." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Nuclear Engineering. Jamie B. Coble, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Jason P. Hayward, Eric D. Lukosi, Steven E. Skutnik, Nadia Fomin Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) Process Attribute Monitoring Approach to Gaseous Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Safeguards A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Adam Michael Shephard May 2016 Copyright © 2016 by Adam Michael Shephard All rights reserved. ii DEDICATION To my family. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to first and foremost acknowledge my wife, of which without her support and infinite patience this work would have not been possible. I would like to acknowledge Prof. Jamie Coble for her lessons and mentorship. I especially benefited from her course on empirical models for monitoring and diagnostics. I would like to acknowledge the team at the University of Virginia, consisting of Prof. Houston Wood and his current and former graduate students Benjamin Thomas and Patrick Migliorini, for their time and active support of the current research. I would like to acknowledge Andrey Berlizov, Diane Fischer, Mark Laughter, Lillian Marie Cronholm, Kimberly Ania Kaminski, Stephen Croft, Michael Whitaker, Alain Lebrun, Robert McElroy, Jeffrey Chapman, Lee Trowbridge, Gregor Geurkov, Darrel Simons, Charles Weber, and Jose March-Leuba for their consultations and help running down some of the more obscure references. This dissertation would not have been possible without the years of mentorship from Prof. Jamie Coble, Prof. Frederick Best, Vladimir Nizhnik, Anthony Belian, Andrey Berlizov, Young Gil Lee, Stephen Croft, Robert McElroy, Andrew Monteith, Eric Smith, Chris Martinez, and Cable Kurwitz. iv ABSTRACT Unattended and remote monitoring systems for the early detection of gas centrifuge enrichment plant (GCEP) misuse have long been sought by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards inspectorate, but have yet to be realized for most GCEPs. The primary misuse of concern is high enriched uranium (HEU) production but additionally include excess low enriched uranium (LEU) production and material diversion. The current research is a feasibility study that investigates a process monitoring approach combined with passive gamma spectroscopy techniques to monitor GCEPs. In the current research, a simulated reference cascade and monitoring system is used to demonstrate several techniques to monitor 235U [uranium-235] enrichment, monitor cascade ideality, detect changes in facility operations, and attribute those changes to specific normal, abnormal, or misuse scenarios. In other words, the monitoring system detects misuse and indicates to inspectors where to look for supporting physical evidence. The techniques for the detection of GCEP misuse introduced in the current research are different from all previous efforts in six fundamental ways. First, previous efforts used custom and complex equipment which could not be sustained by the IAEA safeguards inspectorate; the current research only employs existing IAEA equipment and techniques in routine use. Second, previous efforts used radioactive sources and other invasive equipment and techniques; the current research only utilizes passive and non-invasive gamma spectroscopy. Third, previous efforts relied on measurements at a single point that could be bypassed; the current research includes techniques to additionally monitor entire cascades and production units. Fourth, previous efforts used measurements of the 186 keV [kiloelectron volt] gamma line and the UF6 [uranium hexafluoride] gas pressure; the current study utilizes measurements of the 231Th [thorium-231], 234Th [thorium-234], 234U [uranium-234], and 235U [uranium-235] gamma lines. Fifth, no techniques currently v exist for the detection of excess LEU production and gas flow stoppage; the current research presents techniques for the detection and attribution of these scenarios. Sixth, no previous techniques utilize the minor isotope safeguards techniques (MIST); the current research utilizes the 234U [uranium-234] gamma lines and the ratio of 235U [uranium-235] to 234U [uranium-234] to detect and attribute GCEP misuse. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I OVERVIEW .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective and Scope ............................................................................................. 2 1.3 Problem Statement ............................................................................................... 3 1.4 Proposed Solution ................................................................................................ 4 1.5 Novel Contributions ............................................................................................. 4 1.6 Document Organization ....................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER II BACKGROUND ........................................................................................ 6 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Feed Material........................................................................................................ 6 2.2.1 Natural Uranium ........................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Recycled Uranium ...................................................................................... 16 2.2.3 Summary ..................................................................................................... 17 2.3 Uranium Isotope Behavior in Centrifuges, Cascades, and Production Units ..... 20 2.3.1 Centrifuges .................................................................................................. 20 2.3.2 Cascades ...................................................................................................... 25 2.3.3 Production Units ......................................................................................... 30 2.3.4 Minor Isotope Safeguards Techniques (MIST) .......................................... 31 2.3.5 Summary ..................................................................................................... 38 2.4 Spectroscopic Attributes of GCEP Pipework..................................................... 39 2.4.1 Pipework and Deposits ............................................................................... 39 2.4.2 Physical Properties of Uranium and Thorium ............................................ 48 2.4.3 Steady-State Attributes ............................................................................... 52 2.4.4 Transient Attributes .................................................................................... 52 2.4.5 Summary ..................................................................................................... 52 2.5 Measurement of Spectroscopic Attributes of GCEP Pipework ......................... 58 2.5.1 Overview ..................................................................................................... 58 2.5.2 Gamma and Neutron Techniques for Liquid UF6 ....................................... 59 2.5.3 Passive Techniques ..................................................................................... 61 2.5.4 Wall Deposit Correction Techniques .......................................................... 61 2.5.5 X-Ray Florescence Technique .................................................................... 62 vii 2.5.6 Transmission Techniques............................................................................ 65 2.5.7 Pressure Transducer Technique .................................................................. 69 2.5.8 IAEA Inspection Systems ........................................................................... 69 2.5.9
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