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Monthly Market Commentary monthly market commentary market review – may 2010 S&P/ASX 200 The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX 200) dived 7.3% in May, representing its biggest monthly slump since October 2008 and costing investors nearly $110 billion. The month saw extreme volatility in Australian equity and currency markets as investors digested the government’s response to the Henry Tax Review and the proposed Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT) as well as global concerns that the European sovereign debt crisis could spill over to other countries despite Europe’s $1.1 trillion bail out package. The ASX 200 remains down some 9.0% for the year. All sectors were down for May. Financials were the worst performers (-10.4%) as the European debt crisis rattled investors and fears emerged that regulatory shifts, particularly in the US, could see increased banking funding costs. Energy (-6.9%) and resource stocks (-6.2%) also closed significantly lower following softer global commodity markets and uncertainty surrounding the proposed RSPT. Information technology stocks (-8.0%) and utilities (-7.8%) also suffered large losses for the month. The traditionally defensive sectors of consumer staples (-1.1%) and healthcare (-4.1%), as well as A-REITs (-4.16%) were relative outperformers. Healthcare was boosted by the 19.7% monthly increase in the share price of Healthscope Limited (HSP) following its takeover bids. MAY 2010 BIGGEST WINNERS AND LOSERS RANK WINNERS LOSERS 1 Eldorado Gold Corporation 21.6% Ausenco Ltd -52.2% 2 Healthscope Ltd 19.7% Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd -47.9% 3 St Barbara Ltd 12.7% Sonic Healthcare Ltd -27.2% 4 Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd 11.1% Macarthur Coal Ltd -25.8% 5 Australian Agricultural Co 10.8% Linc Energy Ltd -24.9% 6 Alumina Ltd 7.7% Gunns Ltd -24.8% 7 Resmed Inc-Cdi 4.5% Ardent Leisure Group -23.9% 8 Lihir Gold Ltd 3.7% Emeco Holdings Ltdl -23.2% 9 Isoft Group Ltd 3.7% Macmahon Holdings Ltd -22.6% 10 Karoon Gas Australia Ltd 3.2% Kagara Ltd -21.9% Source: Iress HSP said last week it had received a takeover proposal of $5.75 per share, which valued the company at about $1.82 | monthly billion, from a private equity consortium. The proposal was up from an earlier bid of $5.50 per share from the same consortium. The identity of the bidder has not been revealed. “The board has concluded that, based on their revised market proposal and subject to negotiation of an appropriate confidentiality agreement, the members of the consortium will be granted the opportunity to conduct due diligence,” the company said in a statement. commentary AXA Asia Pacific Holdings (AXA) said it has held discussions with suitor National Australia Bank (NAB) about potential asset sales that may help satisfy the competition regulator, as the bank scrambles to keep its bid for the wealth | management group on foot. Speaking at AXA’s annual meeting in Melbourne, Chairman Rick Allert said the firm will may consider terminating its support for the $13.29 billion takeover bid from NAB if the deal hasn’t won the endorsement 2010 of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Allert said he is still unable to advise how NAB | 1 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document www.dixon.com.au may respond to the ACCC’s April 19 decision to oppose its bid. NAB, AMP and AXA closed the month -12.0%, -10.7%, -6.0% respectively. In other takeover news, Australian toll road operator Transurban Group (TCL) said that it has rejected two takeover proposals from a consortium of its major shareholders on the grounds that neither of them offered sufficient value or certainty for its security holders. TCL said the initial $5.57 per security bid from Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and CP2 Limited that it received wasn’t acceptable as it was conditional on it discontinuing the $542.3 million capital raising it launched to raise funds to acquire the Lane Cove Tunnel in Sydney’s north. TCL also said that an alternative secondary proposal at $5.42 per security from the consortium, which assumed the capital raising continued, has also been rejected by its board of directors. Despite the rejections, Transurban said it “remains willing to explore opportunities for constructive and harmonious relationships,” with the consortium members in the future. CP2 Limited, TCL’s biggest shareholder, applied to Australia’s Takeovers Panel to scuttle TCL’s capital raising following the toll road operator’s rejection of the takeover offer. However the application was unsuccessful with the panel ruling that the rights issue would have no material impact on the control of TCL, and there was no reasonable prospect that it would declare the circumstances unacceptable. TCL closed down 15.6% for the month. Beer and wine producer Foster’s Group Limited (FGL) announced it is going to demerge its beer and wine businesses. Australian wine markets have performed poorly for FGL in recent years with production gluts, currency shifts and increasing competition from major retailers. The fall in FGL’s wine businesses has shadowed its prized Carlton and United beer business and now the conventional demerger is seen as a potential takeover target. FGL closed 2.6% higher for the month. BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) announced it will not be able to meet the May 27 decision date on the proposed joint venture with Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) worth US$116 billion. The proposed joint venture is also awaiting approval from regulators in Europe and Asia. The delay of this venture comes as many of Australia’s resource companies put Australian projects on hold due to the RSPT. In its latest return fire to the government’s rationale for the tax, another of the mining industry’s big names, iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), has put two of three major expansion projects in Western Australia on hold. They include the giant $10.5 billion Solomon mine, slated to yield 160 million tonnes of iron ore a year, and the Western hub project, planned to produce lower grade ore. The enthusiasm for financing both projects has waned severely according to Fortescue Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Andrew Forrest. FMG closed the month down 11.8% with RIO and BHP closing down 6.8% and 6.2% respectively. Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) agreed to buy Lihir Gold Limited (LGL) after raising its cash and stock bid to $9.5 billion which will result in the two companies merging to create the world’s fifth-biggest producer ofgold. Buying LGL will give NCM mines in Papua New Guinea, Australia and Africa and boost sales by more than half. NCM CEO Ian Smith commented that he believes that it is unlikely that the government’s proposed Resource Super Profits Tax will get through parliament in its current state. Importantly for LGL, the company can continue to hold talks with other potential suitors until 8 June 2010. Macarthur Coal Limited (MCC) shares plummeted 23.1% for the month as the company rejected the $3.8 billion takeover offer from Peabody Energy Corp (Peabody), which it said was opposed by its biggest shareholder, China’s Citic Group, and was unlikely to succeed. “The Macarthur board has met today and considered Peabody’s further proposal and formed the view that based on the price and the conditions of the proposal, that it cannot reasonably be recommended to shareholders,” MCC said. Earlier this month, Peabody lowered its prior offer pitched at $16 per MCC share to $15 a share after carrying out due diligence and factoring in the potential impact of the RSPT. | monthly economic data The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the cash rate by 25 basis points (bps) on 4 May, in line with market market expectations, raising the rate to 4.50%. The hike is now the sixth 25 bps rate hike since the RBA began raising rates in commentary the fourth quarter of last year. In its Statement of Monetary Policy (click here for the full statement), the RBA made modest upgrades to its growth and inflation outlook, lifting end 2010 underlying consumer price index (CPI) growth to 2.75% from 2.5% and gross | domestic product (GDP) growth over the coming year to 3.75% from 3.5%. With the CPI bottoming at above the mid- may point of the RBA’s 2-3% band, this could mean that the RBA sees structurally higher rates in the coming years. 2010 However, these estimates were released prior to the rising market turmoil from the European debt situation and later | 2 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document www.dixon.com.au market data to indicate that the rate rises are starting to bite. Data from financial services consultancy Fujitsu shows that mortgage stress (generally defined as having to pay at least 30 per cent of income on home loan repayments) is affecting nearly 40 per cent of those who have entered the property market since June 2008 (click here for full article). Consumer confidence data was also soft, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index falling by 7% in May for the biggest month on month fall since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) took hold in October 2008 (click here for press release). Consumer confidence is now down 10.1% since January. However, while the falls have been quite sharp, the overall index level remains relatively solid, as it is still 6.3% above its long run average. Overall, market expectations for near term future rate rises have been significantly downgraded.
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