SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly APR 2008 28 March 2008 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE Status Update since our March Forecast...2 OVERVIEW FOR APRIL Cooperation with Regional Organisations/Conflict Prevention.....3 In April South Africa will have the Presidency PSC took place in 2007 in Addis Ababa.) Small Arms...... 3 of the Council. The combination of a large Debates are also under discussion on: Somalia...... 4 number of scheduled items for consideration Sudan/Darfur...... 7 n Small Arms; and ongoing unresolved issues seems likely Ethiopia/Eritrea...... 9 n Georgia (to renew the mandate of to make April an extremely busy month. Chad/Central African Republic...... 11 UNOMIG); Côte d’Ivoire...... 12 An important open thematic debate is n Western Sahara (to renew the mandate Kosovo...... 14 scheduled for 17 April, at a high level. It will of MINURSO); Georgia...... 15 Haiti...... 17 combine two key thematic issues on the n Sudan (to renew the mandate of UNMIS); Iraq...... 19 Council agenda: and Lebanon...... 21 n Conflict prevention; and n Iraq (for briefings by the SRSG and the US) Nepal...... 22 n Cooperation between the UN and Western Sahara...... 24 A public session on the Middle East, in regional organisations. DPRK (North Korea)...... 26 accordance with normal practice, is also Liberia...... 26 It will be preceded, on 16 April, by the sec- expected—although the format is unclear Sierra Leone...... 26 Counter-Terrorism: Review of the ond formal meeting between the Security at this stage and is likely to be influenced by 540 Committee...... 27 Council and the AU Peace and Security developments. Notable Dates for April...... 28 Council (PSC). (The first meeting with the >>page 2 Important Dates over the Horizon...... 28

Aide-Memoire

Important matters pending for the Council requested in March 2007 (S/PRST/2007/7) now coming so late as to be completely outdated. include: and November 2007 (S/PRST/2007/42) had (The March 2008 report covered the period from n The Council has yet to take up the Secretary- not been published as of press time. 1 July to 31 December 2007.) In the past, the General’s recommendations on protection n The Council requested the Secretary-General reports were produced every two to three months. of civilians contained in his report of 28 on 29 November 2006 (S/2006/928) to update n The December 2004 report by the Secretary- October 2007. the index to Council notes and statements on General on human rights violations in Côte n In a 21 November 2007 letter to the Secretary- working methods. This has not been published. d’Ivoire, requested by presidential statement General (S/2007/680), the President of the n The 2005 World Summit requested that the 2004/17, has still not been made public. Also on Council requested a briefing on steps the Security Council consider reforms for the Côte d’Ivoire, the December 2005 report by the Secretariat is planning to provide for the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on the Pre- enhanced physical security of the UNMOVIC be addressed. vention of Genocide has not been published. archives, in particular those containing sensi- n On the DRC, the Council Sanctions Commit- n The Secretary-General has yet to put forward tive proliferation information. This information tee has not acted on individual sanctions proposals for the delineation of the interna- is not yet forthcoming. under resolution 1698 against armed groups tional borders of Lebanon, especially in the n In its resolution 1327 (2000) on the imple- that recruit children, despite MONUC reports Sheb’a Farms area, in accordance with reso- mentation of the report of the Panel on United about the problem continuing on a serious lution 1701, and respond to the cartographic, Nations Peace Operations (the Brahimi report, scale. Nor has the Council resumed discus- legal and political implications of the alterna- S/2000/809), the Council decided to review sion of the issue of natural resources in the tive path suggested by the government of periodically the implementation of the provi- DRC, which was raised in its open thematic Lebanon in its seven-point plan. sions contained in the resolution’s annex. debate on the subject of natural resources n The Secretariat was to report to the Council No such reviews have occurred in the past and conflict in June 2007 (S/PV.5705). on Kenya as requested in its 6 February pres- three years. n On West Africa, the Council has yet to follow idential statement (S/PRST/2008/4). n The Secretary-General’s report on enhanc- up its 16 March 2007 consultations on cross- n The Council is yet to consider the 23 January ing cooperation between the UN and border issues. Secretary-General’s report on security sec- regional organisations, in particular the AU, n UNAMI reports on human rights in Iraq are tor reform (S/2008/39).

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  OVERVIEW FOR APRIL (continued) Debates are also possible on: likely following the elections on 10 April. progress); n Kosovo (depending on developments in n Haiti (report and briefing on MINUSTAH In addition, consultations or briefings are the region); progress); and expected on: n Somalia (to adopt a Council response to the n Chad (depending on developments). n Lebanon (progress with the tribunal, Secretary-General’s “strategic approach” the 1559 report and to respond to On Myanmar, it remains to be seen whether presented on 14 March. But much will developments); consultations at the expert level on a draft depend on progress in negotiations); n Cote d’Ivoire (the Secretary-General’s presidential statement will resume in April n Ethiopia/Eritrea (Major decisions on the report on progress towards the elections); and whether Myanmar will be in the footnote future of the force may need to be taken); n DPRK (North Korea) (to hear a report to the April programme of work. and from the Chairman of the Sanctions n Counter-Terrorism (to renew the man- On Uganda, the Special Envoy of the Committee); date of the 1540 Committee and its group Secretary-General for the Lord’s Resistance n Sierra Leone (report and briefing on of experts). Army (LRA)-affected areas, Joaquim UNIOSIL progress); Chissano, may brief the Council. A public meeting or a briefing on Nepal is n Liberia (report and briefing on UNMIL

Status Update since our March Forecast

Recent developments on the situations experts followed and Council consultations when necessary for technical cooperation covered in this Forecast are addressed in the were scheduled to discuss the draft on 6 with the IAEA. The resolution invited mem- relevant briefs. Interesting developments in March. The US introduced a press state- ber states to inspect carefully materials the Council on other issues included: ment condemning the terrorist attack travelling to and from Iran via Iranian n Middle East: Council members held a against Jerusalem’s Mercaz Harav Yeshiva cargoes. New discretionary measures also weekend session on 1 and 2 March to dis- which killed 8 students and took place just included a call to increase scrutiny of activi- cuss the growing violence in the Gaza Strip before the scheduled consultations. It ties of “financial institutions in their territories and southern Israel in response to a Libyan seems that the US reluctance to engage in with all banks domiciled in Iran,” as well as request for a meeting to address the situa- discussions on the draft resolution before vigilance in granting export credits to Iran. tion (S/2008/142). During the meeting, adopting the press statement, or to incor- Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addressed porate language on the situation in Gaza in On 17 March, the Chairman of the 1737 the Council. He condemned and called for the statement, coupled with Libya’s refusal Sanctions Committee on Iran, Belgian an end to rocket attacks from Gaza that to adopt any text not mentioning the Ambassador Johan Verbeke, briefed the endangered the lives of Israeli civilians. humanitarian disaster in Gaza and the fail- Council on the activities of the Committee Additionally, while recognising Israel’s right ure to agree on holding discussions on the (S/PV.5853). He noted that 88 countries had to self-defense, he condemned what he two texts in parallel, once again paralysed so far submitted reports to the Committee called Israel’s “disproportionate and exces- the Council. under resolution 1737, and 72 submitted sive use of force” and called on Israel to reports under resolution 1747. He also - “cease such attacks” (S/PV.5847). The On 25 March, the Council held its monthly emphasized that resolution 1803 broad ened the scope of the committee’s mandate. Permanent Observer of Palestine, Riyad debate on the Middle East (S/PV.5859 and Only the US and Burkina Faso made com- Mansour, stated that Israeli actions consti- Resumption 1). Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was deeply concerned by ments after the briefing. tuted “war crimes” and called on the Council the prospects of renewed violence in Gaza n Kenya: On 5 March, the Council heard a to “uphold international law and its Charter and southern Israel. Israel and the Perma- Secretariat briefing on recent developments responsibilities and act to bring an end to nent Observer of Palestine participated in in Kenya, including the power-sharing this cycle of violence and counter-violence.” the debate, as did Lebanon, Syria, the Arab agreement signed in late February. Mem- Daniel Carmon, Deputy Permanent Repre- bers apparently welcomed the developments sentative of Israel, stated that his country Group, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, the Non-Aligned Movement but expressed concern about the fragile had a right to defend its civilians from attacks and the EU. security situation. Members also underlined from Hamas in accordance with article 51 of n Iran: Following a Council debate on 3 March their expectation of further Secretariat the UN Charter. After the meeting, Vitaly (S/PV.5848), Council members adopted reporting—as requested in the 6 February Churkin, Permanent Representative of the resolution 1803 with one abstention (from presidential statement (S/PRST/2008/4)— Russian Federation, which held the Council Indonesia) which placed on Iran additional as well as interest in briefings by the High presidency in March, read out a media state- ment agreed by the Council that summarised sanctions related to its nuclear programme. Commissioner for Human Rights and the the debate, called for an end to the violence New mandatory measures included a travel Secretary-General’s Special Adviser for the and requested all parties to adhere to their ban on some individuals listed in previous Prevention of Genocide. n Great Lakes Region: On 13 March, the responsibilities under international law. resolutions, an expansion of the list of individuals and entities subject to an assets Council demanded that the Forces démocra- Following the session, Libya introduced a freeze and an embargo on nuclear-related tiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), draft resolution addressing the humanitar- dual-use items, with the exception of items ex-Rwandan Armed Forces (ex-FAR)/Intera- ian situation in Gaza. Negotiations among for exclusive use in light water reactors and hamwe and other Rwandan armed groups

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 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Status Update since our March Forecast (continued)

operating in eastern DRC—referred to in the organization and plan of work of CTED. In in private consultations on 26 March by the “Nairobi Communiqué” signed between of addition to developing several new working UN Department of Political Affairs on the the governments of the Democratic Repub- methods, the main organisational change progress of the ongoing peace talks lic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda on 9 discussed by Smith was the creation of five between the Ugandan government and the November 2007—lay down their arms and cross-cutting groups under the CTED’s rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which submit to the Congolese authorities and Assessment and Technical Assistance are being facilitated by the Special Envoy of MONUC for their disarmament, demo­ Office for technical assistance; terrorist the Secretary-General to the LRA affected bilisation, repatriation, resettlement and financing; legal issues; border control, arms areas, former President Joachim Chissano reintegration (DDRRR) (resolution 1804). trafficking and law enforcement; and issues of Mozambique. The Council also demanded that the illegal related to the prohibition of incitement to n Guinea-Bissau: On 26 March, the Council armed groups immediately stop recruiting commit acts of terrorism and to human was briefed by the Representative of the and using children, release all children rights. On 20 March, the Council adopted Secretary-General to Guinea-Bissau, Shola associated with them and put an end to resolution 1805 which welcomed the rec- Omoregie, on recent developments in the gender-based violence. The Rwandan ommendations in the CTED’s reorganisation country and the latest report of the authorities welcomed the Council’s resolu- plan and extended the mandate of the CTED Secretary-General on Guinea Bissau sub- tion, reiterated their determination to until 31 December 2010. mitted to the Council on 17 March cooperate with the DRC on the matter and n Afghanistan: On 20 March, the Council (S/2008/181). The Chairman of the Peace- encouraged Rwandan armed groups in extended UNAMA’s mandate for 12 months building Commission’s country specific eastern DRC to comply with the DDRRR pro- until 23 March 2009 in resolution 1806 as configuration on Guinea-Bissau, Brazilian cess in a letter on 14 March (S/2008/180). recommended in the Secretary-General’s Ambassador Maria Luiza Viotti, also apprised n Myanmar: On 18 March, Ibrahim Gambari, latest report (S/2008/159). It also decided on the Council of the Commission’s activities the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on a significant clarification and enhancement towards understanding and meeting the Myanmar briefed the Council on his visit to of UNAMA tasks, especially in the areas of peacebuilding priorities and challenges of Myanmar from 6 to 10 March (S/PV.5854). He coordination and political reconciliation. This the country. The Council issued a press expressed disappointment at not obtaining responded to the point made during an open statement on 27 March in which it reiterated any tangible outcome but also stressed that debate (S/PV.5851) on 12 March by Under its support for the peace consolidation it was important for the UN to keep engaging Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- efforts of the government of Guinea-Bissau with the authorities. The Council met in tions Jean-Marie Guehenno that UNAMA and called on the international community consultations after the public briefing. Sub- did not need additional powers but that its to provide resources for the holding of legis- sequently the elements of a draft presidential mandate needed to be sharpened. On 6 lative elections on 16 November (SC/9286). statement were circulated but at press time March, the Secretary-General informed the It also requested the Secretary-General to no agreement had been reached. Council in a letter (S/2008/165) that he provide proposals on how the UN could n Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive intended to appoint Kai Eide as his Special provide assistance “in an integrated and Directorate (CTED): On 19 March, the Representative for Afghanistan, and the holistic manner” to Guinea-Bissau. Council held an open debate on threats to president of the Council in a letter on 7 n Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): international peace and security resulting March (S/2008/166) informed the Secretary- At press time the Council was expected to from terrorist acts (S/PV.5855). During the General that he had brought this matter to extend, on 31 March, the sanctions regime debate, Mike Smith, the Executive Director the Council’s attention. and the mandate of the Group of Experts on of the CTED, presented changes to the n Northern Uganda: The Council was briefed the DRC.

Cooperation with Regional also consider the Secretary-General’s recent Small Arms Organisations/Conflict report on the implementation of resolution Prevention 1625 of 14 September 2005, on strengthen- Expected Council Action ing the effectiveness of the UN’s role in conflict A report from the Secretary-General on On 17 April, the Council is expected to hold prevention, particularly in Africa. small arms is likely to be submitted to the an open debate (possibly with high-level Council in April. At press time, the incoming The debate will be preceded on 16 April by a representation) combining two thematic president, South Africa, was tentatively meeting of the Council with members of the issues on its agenda: planning a debate on small arms on 25 AU Peace and Security Council following up n UN cooperation with regional organisa- April. It is possible that regional organisa- on the agreement reached last year in Addis tions; and tions will be invited to participate in addition Ababa during a meeting with the visiting del- n conflict prevention. to Council members. The format however egation of the UN Security Council to hold remains subject to change depending on During the debate, it will consider the annual meetings between the two. consultations with the Council and the level Secretary-General’s report on enhancing Security Council Report will publish a of interest in participation. cooperation between the UN and regional detailed Update Report in advance of organisations, in particular the AU, which was Background these meetings. requested in March 2007 (S/PRST/2007/7) For in-depth background please see our and November 2007 (S/PRST/2007/42). It will June 2006 Profile on Small Arms report at www.securitycouncilreport.org.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  In 2006 the Council failed to reach agree- n reaffirmed the right to individual or collec- protection of civilians in armed conflict ment on an Argentinean initiative for a tive self-defence; and emphasised the importance of incor- resolution to enhance Council input to the n requested a Secretary-General’s report porating DDR in peace agreements. debate on small arms. Prior to that, the on a biennial basis starting in 2008. Council had addressed the issue of small Selected Presidential Statements In this statement, the Council invited the arms only in presidential statements and in • S/PRST/2007/24 (29 June 2007) Secretary-General to report on the issue of the limited context of illicit trafficking. It had requested the Secretary-General to small arms in general—although stressing reminded member states to fully implement submit a report on small arms to the also the need to continue to provide the Programme of Action (adopted in 2001) Council on a biennial basis. recommendations and observations on to prevent, combat and eradicate the illicit • S/PRST/2006/38 (9 August 2006) implementation of the Programme of Action. trade in small arms and light weapons welcomed the decision of ECOWAS to It remains to be seen whether the Secretary- in all aspects. The Secretary-General had transform the Moratorium on Import, General will take up this opening for a wider reported to the Council on twelve specific Export and Manufacture of Light scope of the issue, as opposed to the more recommendations on ways the Council Weapons into a binding Convention limited context of illicit trade in small arms could contribute to dealing with the ques- on Small Arms and Light Weapons, and light weapons. tion of illicit trade in small arms. their Ammunition and Other Related It seems that the option is there for more Materials. The Argentinean draft sought to focus on analytical reporting, perhaps exploring • S/PRST/2005/7 (17 February 2005) the wider issue that uncontrolled spread of new areas related to the problem of small called on arms-exporting countries to small arms compromises the effectiveness arms, such as the manufacture and trade exercise the highest degree of respon- of the Council’s efforts to promote interna- of ammunitions, and the link between sibility in the trade in small arms and tional peace and security and in itself small arms, security, development and requested an update from the Secre- constitutes a threat to peace. There were human rights. tary-General on the implementation of also ideas to request member states to the twelve recommendations con- adopt measures, in particular to ensure the A challenge for the Council will be for tained in his 2002 report on small arms. observance of arms embargoes. Although South Africa to frame the debate in such a Latest Secretary-General’s Report the draft resolution largely drew upon con- way that it can draw interest and be con- sensus language from previous Council structive. It appears that the main focus • S/2006/109 (17 February 2006) statements and had the strong support of may be on how to best take into account focused on the implementation of the several Council members including France the problem of small arms when the Coun- twelve recommendations outlined in and the UK with agreement from China and cil deals with specific issues (such as arms 2002 to identify and trace illicit trade in Russia, the Council could not agree—mainly embargoes, security sector reform, disar- small arms. because of US opposition. As a result of the mament demobilisation and reintegration Other Documents stalemate over the draft resolution, the cycle programmes, etc.) rather than expanding • S/PV.5390 and resumption 1 (20 March of preparing regular Secretary-General’s the discussions to potentially controver- 2006) was the latest debate on small reports on small arms was interrupted as the sial issues, such as civilian possession of arms. mandate for these reports came from the small arms. • A/C.1/60/L.55 (12 October 2005) was successive presidential statements. A presidential statement is a possibility. an international instrument adopted In March 2007, South Africa, concerned by the General Assembly to enable about the particular problems for African Security Council Report will publish an states to identify and trace illicit small countries as a result of the proliferation of Update Report with more insights in April. arms and light weapons. small arms on the continent, took the lead on • A/CONF.192/15 (20 July 2001) was the UN Documents this issue. A draft presidential statement Programme of Action adopted by requesting the Secretary-General to produce Selected Security Council Resolutions member states. regular reports on small arms was proposed. • S/RES/1631 (17 October 2005) (Please see our 13 April 2007 Update Report stressed the role of regional organi- on small arms for more details). After weeks sations in addressing the issue of Somalia of efforts, the Council on 29 June 2007 small arms. adopted the proposed presidential state- • S/RES/1612 (26 July 2005) on children Expected Council Action ment. It seems that the main difficulty was and armed conflict highlighted the link Pressure on the Council to do something on the US reluctance to support regular report- between illicit trafficking in small arms Somalia is likely to continue in April. At press ing by the Secretary-General on the issue of and the use of child soldiers. time, an Arria-style meeting with NGOs to small arms. In the statement, the Council: • S/RES/1467 (18 March 2003) outlined discuss Somalia was scheduled for 31 n noted with concern that the accumula- measures to increase support for the March under UK chairmanship. tion and illicit manufacture, trade and ECOWAS moratorium on small arms Also, members had started expert-level con- circulation of small arms contributed to in West Africa with the declaration on sultations on a draft response to the the prolongation and increase in inten- the proliferation of small arms and Secretary-General’s 14 March report. Ele- sity of armed conflicts and undermined light weapons in West Africa. ments expected to be considered include: the sustainability of peace (previously • S/RES/1296 (19 April 2000) on agreed language); n supporting the Secretary-General’s

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org phased strategic approach; programmatic—and envisages four phases n supporting political reconciliation in Soma- and related activities around those three lia and, in this context, strengthening and pillars, including: SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT safely relocating the UN Political Office for n first, facilitate UN support for political rec- Monthly Somalia (UNPOS) back to Somalia; onciliation by gradually relocating UN n strengthening the AU Mission in Somalia staff to south-central Somalia (options for APR 2008FORECAST (AMISOM), including a UN support pack- security for UN personnel are still being age; and developed), strengthen AMISOM and “any location” under Ould-Abdallah’s medi- n arrangements for international assistance reach agreement on an agenda for recon- ation. The Special Representative is now to patrol Somali waters and address piracy. ciliation talks. (The Secretary-General expected to begin contacting key stakehold- also recommended that the Council ers on timing and modalities for the talks. The expected high-level thematic debate on strengthen the mandate and capacity of cooperation with regional organisations Important divisions remain. Sheikh Hassan UNPOS, authorise a “coalition of willing (organised at the initiative of the South Dahir Aweys, leader of the Asmara-based partners” to secure key areas and African presidency), and the Council’s Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia, perhaps establish a maritime task force); expected joint meeting with the AU Peace continues to condition talks on Ethiopian n secondly, after political dialogue is estab- and Security Council in April are also likely withdrawal. Al-Shabaab reportedly ruled out lished with initial support from 60-70 to put the spotlight on Somalia. reconciliation with some elements in the percent of Somali actors, move UNPOS TFG—even if Ethiopian troops leave. It is The Council is also expected to renew the to Mogadishu and table a proposal for hostile to all foreign peacekeepers. mandate of the sanctions Monitoring Group, Ethiopian withdrawal; which expires on 30 April. The Group’s n thirdly, after a broad-based political Options report is due in mid-April. agreement, including a code of conduct One option for the Council in April is to adopt on use of arms and a phased Ethiopian a resolution: Key Recent Developments withdrawal, begin deployment of an n supporting the “strategic approach” and Fighting between insurgents, Ethiopian 8,000-strong impartial stabilisation force agreeing on the sequencing of the vari- troops and Transitional Federal Government to complement AMISOM; and ous steps in the process; (TFG) forces continued unabated in Mogadi- n fourthly, when political agreements and n adopting a support package for shu, and markedly increased in south-central the security situation are consolidated, AMISOM; Somalia. There was a sharp increase in and there is clear support from local n strengthening UNPOS’ mandate; attacks by the al-Shabaab militia, which actors for UN deployments, begin n authorising UNPOS’ relocation to Soma- appear to have a scale and organisation deployment of a 30,000-strong UN lia and appropriate close protection unprecedented over the past twelve months. peacekeeping operation. security for the UN office and personnel; n authorising international maritime patrol- On 3 March, the US launched strikes at an On 20 March, the Secretary-General’s Spe- ling of Somali waters; alleged al-Qaeda target in southern Soma- cial Representative Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah n expressing support for Ould-Abdallah’s lia, reportedly an al-Shabaab commander. and Assistant Secretary-General Edmond efforts and addressing the framework for Washington subsequently included the al- Mulet briefed the Council. Ould-Abdallah political reconciliation talks and account- Shabaab in its list of terrorist organisations. argued that the Council should consider, ability issues; alongside AMISOM, a “strong interim multi- There are now more than 700,000 displaced n renewing the mandate of the sanctions Somalis and increasing reports of lack of national presence.” He also stressed that Monitoring Group; accountability issues should be addressed access to food, water and humanitarian assis- n adopting a spectrum of targeted sanc- tance. Complaints persist against TFG and and that those responsible for war crimes tions for dealing with any actors that Ethiopian forces for abuse of the civilian pop- and crimes against humanity should be refuse to enter into or frustrate political ulation, attacks on media outlets and killings brought to account in the International Crim- talks; and inal Court or other international or local and looting at Mogadishu’s Bakara market n taking up the justice and accountability (a stronghold of the Hawiye clan). (On 5 forum. He further suggested establishing a issue, and, as a first step, requesting the March, the Council was briefed on the latter.) commission of inquiry into serious crimes. Secretary-General to develop recommen- dations regarding a commission of inquiry. In a 20 February letter, AU Commissioner Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin Alpha Konaré presented proposals for a UN and Ould-Abdallah separately visited Soma- Other options—if Council members are not assistance package for AMISOM. This com- lia in late February. Reports suggest that ready to go so far—include: there was a difference of views between prised approximately $800 million in financial n calling for a funding conference for support plus an appropriate number of man- Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime AMISOM, perhaps through the auspices agement staff and logistical support. Minister Nur Hassan Hussein on participa- of the AU and the International Contact tion in future reconciliation talks, with Group; On 14 March, the Secretary-General pre- Hussein favouring the inclusion of all oppo- n encouraging additional troop contribu- sented proposals for a broader UN strategic sition groups. tions to reinforce AMISOM, perhaps by perspective for Somalia and contingency inviting potential troop contributors (from peacekeeping plans. The strategy com- In a 12 March statement, the TFG said it was the AU and the Arab League) to meet with prises three pillars—political, security and “ready to reconcile with any Somali citizen,” and that negotiations could take place at the Council (or perhaps its working group

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  on peacekeeping) and indicating a will- concerns of Ethiopia as well as the US. cautious stance on the Konaré letter, not ingness to include non-AU contingents n Critical to the security situation is a major wanting at the outset to stimulate opposition within a new authorisation resolution; parallel question: the Council has from top UN financial contributors. Some n on political reconciliation, vigorously remained silent about the presence and members—including France, the US and demanding a cessation of hostilities and conduct of Ethiopian troops, as well as Russia—appear opposed to using UN new broad-based negotiations, while foreign involvement in the insurgency and assessed contributions to finance AMISOM; actively supporting Ould-Abdallah’s cur- the US military strikes against targets of others have complained of double-standards rent mediation (perhaps by inviting the AU, opportunity in Somalia. Council members regarding UN assistance to the AU in Darfur. the Arab League and concerned member at this point are likely to prefer a forward- On the maritime task force, there is reluc- states to a meeting in New York); and looking approach rather than revisiting tance within the Council about adopting a n encouraging the Secretary-General to the past. However, in as much as these mandate that could lead to the use of force quickly provide a detailed plan for solely issues continue into the future, the poten- or is linked to counter-terrorism objectives. relocating UNPOS and recommendations tial remains for serious negative impacts on support for AMISOM. on the reconciliation process if the UN On political reconciliation, some members and the Council, because of ongoing Key Issues still seem cautious about pressure on the silence, can be accused of being partial. TFG. And there appears to be concern from The key immediate issue for the Council is n Can the Council continue to avoid recog- some, in particular the US, about inclusive- whether to endorse and begin to implement nising the regional dimension to the ness because of some insurgents’ alleged the phased approach proposed by the violence in Somalia, in particular the impact terrorist linkages and sympathy towards Secretary-General more or less as a whole, that the absence of a comprehensive Ethiopian concerns. or whether to decide to consider the various Council approach towards the Eritrea- proposals incrementally. Ethiopia border standoff is having? UN Documents But fundamental issues underlie this n Are major financial and troop contribu- Selected Security Council Resolutions question. tors seriously ready to entertain a path • S/RES/1801 (20 February 2008) that will very likely lead to a huge expan- renewed AMISOM for six months. The UN seems to be about to become sion of peacekeeping activity? Meaningful • S/RES/733 (23 January 1992) imposed engaged in progressively rehabilitating progress in Somalia will require contribu- an arms embargo. Somalia back to the status of sovereign tors to invest very substantially. state under the UN Charter and international n Should the Council include in the Latest Report of the Secretary-General law; but the question is whether internal, sequence steps to address justice and • S/2008/178 (14 March 2008), which regional and international legitimacy can be accountability issues? included the recent AU request for a restored and violent opposition quietened $800 million UN support package. by addressing only some of the symptoms Council Dynamics Latest Monitoring Group’s Report of the current malaise. Most members appear to have welcomed the Secretary-General’s strategic frame- • S/2007/436 (17 July 2007) The Secretary-General’s strategic frame- work for Somalia. There seems to be much Other work goes some way towards addressing a support—in principle—for a comprehen- • S/PV.5858 (20 March 2008) was the number of aspects of this issue. However, it sive approach involving sequential elements recent Ould-Abdallah briefing. remains to be seen if it is sufficiently com- and a blueprint culminating in a UN opera- prehensive, neutral and consistent with past tion. But there is growing acknowledgement Other Relevant Facts lessons learned—including the importance that UN peacekeeping deployments in of consent and of justice and accountability Somalia will not be feasible at this stage in Special Representative of the issues. It seems that a sustainable strategy the absence of progress in the political and Secretary-General and Head of UNPOS for Somalia would require the Council and security dimensions. Members’ focus as a Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah (Mauritania) key stakeholders to meaningfully address a result seems to be shifting towards strength- Chairman of the Sanctions Committee number of critical related questions: ening AMISOM, relocating UNPOS to Dumisani S. Kumalo (South Africa) n How broad-based should the political rec- Somalia and making arrangements for a onciliation process be? This includes maritime task force. AMISOM: Size, Composition and Cost deciding on some principles on how far to • Maximum authorised strength: go in including elements of the Islamic There is a degree of frustration—particularly 7,650 troops plus maritime and air opposition, and with what limitations. It among African members—about the lack of components seems that any future framework would specific options from the Secretary-General • Strength as of 14 March 2008: about need to balance (i) how to get enough of for improving the security situation and sup- 2,500 Ugandan and Burundian troops the opposition to the table to secure legit- porting AMISOM in the short term. There is • Key financial contributors: EU, Italy, imacy and a reasonable prospect of also scepticism about the feasibility of a sta- Sweden, China and the Arab League negotiating an end to much of the vio- bilisation force separate from AMISOM, as AMISOM: Duration lence; (ii) how best to deal with the proposed by the Secretary-General. al-Shabaab and its apparent refusal to February 2007 to present: AU mandate Pressure for adopting a UN support pack- participate in political talks with some in expires on 18 July 2008 and Council age is likely to continue, although African the TFC leadership; and (iii) the security authorisation expires on 20 August 2008 members appear to have adopted a

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Useful Additional Source reportedly denied access to certain areas in Somalia: UN Security Council Must Not West Darfur by the government. Ignore Abuses, Human Rights Watch, 11 SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT The situation along the border with Chad is March 2008, http://www.hrw.org/english/ also highly volatile. In early March, a French Monthly docs/2008/03/09/somali18241.htm soldier died and another was wounded after APR 2008 their vehicle crossed into Sudan from Chad FORECAST as part of a reconnaissance mission under “a peacekeeping operation alone” could Sudan/Darfur the EU Force (EUFOR). not bring security to Darfur.

Expected Council Action On the margins of the Organisation of the Mulet noted that the deployment of military The Council is expected to continue to Islamic Conference summit in Dakar, Chad units particularly from Egypt, Ethiopia and closely monitor developments in Darfur, and Sudan on 12 March signed a new Nigeria, as well as formed police units from including the security situation, deployment agreement to defuse tensions and stop Nepal, Indonesia and Egypt were under- of the UN-AU Mission (UNAMID) and politi- mutual support for rebels. The agreement, way. Pursuant to an agreement with cal reconciliation. Consultations are likely negotiated under the auspices of Senega- Khartoum, Thai and Nepalese military con- on the Secretary-General’s expected lese President Abdoulaye Wade and tingents would follow. Further deployments monthly report. Darfur issues are also likely witnessed by the Secretary-General, is the were not expected before mid-2008. to emerge during the Council’s expected latest in a series of attempts to improve joint meeting with the AU Peace and Secu- Chad-Sudan relations, which are seen as The mission continues to face critical chal- rity Council in April. critical for progress in Darfur and eastern lenges regarding: Chad. The Dakar agreement also estab- n lack of helicopters, aerial reconnaissance It is unclear, however, whether there will be lished an international contact group aircraft, and logistics and transport units; any proposals for formal action on Darfur in reportedly comprising Congo, Gabon, Libya n limited logistical capacity; April. Council members seem to be strug- and Senegal to oversee implementation. n transition to the UNAMID logistics supply gling to come up with new ideas. system; and However, as with previous such agree- n ageing equipment inherited from the On the north-south issue, members are also ments, there is concern about its AU mission. expected to renew the mandate of the UN effectiveness. Sudan had reportedly Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS), which expressed scepticism about the usefulness In early March, Russia said it was willing to expires on 30 April. Changes to the man- of a new agreement and rebels dismissed contribute helicopters for UNAMID, most date and size were not expected at press its potential for improving the situation. In likely with crews supplied by other mem- time, and the current hands-off approach late March, Chad and Sudan accused each bers. Further Secretariat discussions with seemed likely to continue. The Secretary- other of violating the agreement. Bangladesh and Ethiopia on transport heli- General’s report is due in early April. copters have also continued. However, no In mid-March, the Darfur mediation team firm arrangements had materialised at Key Recent Developments held consultations in Geneva with regional press time. The humanitarian and human rights situa- partners and international observers. Dis- tion in Darfur has reached a critical stage cussions focused on steps ahead for the On 6 March, the “Friends of UNAMID” group with continuing clashes in the west and peace talks in view of the ongoing delays was launched with US and Canadian sup- rebel ambushes in the south, along with with reaching a common rebel negotiating port. The group—comprising Belgium, crop failures, banditry and resulting food position and also the deteriorating security Canada, Denmark, France, the Nether- insecurity. The military offensive in West situation. The team also met with rebel lands, Norway, Sweden, Tanzania, the UK, Darfur has included joint attacks by Suda- leader Abdel Wahid al-Nur (who so far the US and the EU—is expected to support nese armed forces and Janjaweed militia refuses to join the process in the absence of UNAMID troop contributors with training against the rebel Justice and Equality a meaningful ceasefire) and representatives and equipment. Movement (JEM). These attacks have been of the five Council permanent members. supported by fighter jets and helicopter Regarding the north-south situation, ten- gunships, with reports of deliberate target- The team reportedly reiterated the need for sions continued in the Abyei area after ing of civilians and civilian assets. security and the deployment of UNAMID for renewed clashes between the Sudan Peo- the resumption of peace talks. But pros- ple’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and the There has been an acute increase in pects of a ceasefire appear grim; the JEM in Misseriya tribe, which the SPLA accuses of displacement in Darfur and in refugee particular has insisted on a broad political being supported by Khartoum. movement into Chad, where there are agreement before ceasing hostilities and Implementation of the Comprehensive already 250,000 Sudanese and 180,000 bilateral negotiations with the government. displaced Chadians. Insecurity and funding Peace Agreement (CPA) continues to face shortages halved food deliveries in Darfur in On 11 March, Assistant Secretary-General challenges. Key issues include: mid-March. Tens of thousands of civilians Edmond Mulet briefed the Council. He said n the census is now scheduled for 15-30 were reported inaccessible by aid organisa- that fighting in Darfur made “clear that pre- April, but funding from Khartoum was still tions due to a ban on humanitarian flights paring for political negotiations (did) not to be resolved at press time; and access restrictions imposed by rebels. seem to be a priority for either the Govern- n there are divisions between north and UNAMID human rights monitors were also ment or rebel movements,” and added that south on the draft electoral law;

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  risk. A related issue is whether the recent n the report of the Technical Ad Hoc Border context of the January-February military trend to step back from the north-south situ- Committee is still pending and no agree- attacks on three towns in West Darfur ation may in fact create more problems than ment has been reached on Abyei’s “suggested that the damage was a it solves. An important question is whether borders; deliberate and integral part of a military the Council should become more involved n southern suspicion over transparency strategy,” leading to at least 115 killed in encouraging the CPA’s implementation, regarding oil revenues continues; and and 30,000 displaced.) n no tangible progress has been made and how best to do so (bearing in mind the on troop redeployment and joint inte- Samar reiterated the recommendation to parties’ ownership of the process) and how grated units. Khartoum to implement the proposals of to factor in the wider regional dimensions. the group of human rights experts on On Darfur, the key issue for the Council is that Regarding UNMIS, it seems that a recent Darfur, accelerate CPA implementation, current strategies seem unlikely to deliver assessment concluded that no major address impunity and cooperate with quick progress on political reconciliation or changes to the mandate would be required, UNAMID and the International Criminal on the security track (particularly regard- but restructuring would be needed to Court (ICC). She further recommended ing a ceasefire), on the continuing abuses improve mandate implementation. Ongo- that all warring factions respect interna- against civilians by all sides and on the ing concerns include: tional humanitarian law and end attacks increasing regionalisation of the problem. n UNMIS’ lack of freedom of movement in on civilians, and that the South Sudan Abyei; government strengthen rule of law insti- Regarding UNAMID, issues include: n how best to manage the increasing ten- tutions and address impunity. n Khartoum’s cooperation regarding UNA- sions on the ground, given that UNMIS MID, including troop composition and was militarily configured as an observer Options robustness, permission for night flights, mission; and Regarding the south, the most likely option water and land use; n coordination with UNAMID and the politi- is a renewal of UNMIS. Another option n UNAMID’s lack of resources and delays cal process in Darfur. would be to decide to put in place some in deployment arrangements; Related Developments in the procedures to follow the CPA’s implemen- n the crisis in Chad and support for rebels Sanctions Committee tation more closely, and perhaps request by both Chad and Sudan; and regular Secretariat briefings (for example, n UNAMID’s unparalleled management, The Sanctions Committee met in late every 45 days), as preparations for the infrastructure, logistical, security and February to discuss Sudan’s request for census and the 2009 elections are made. environmental challenges. sanctions against the JEM. Given mem- bers’ ongoing divisions regarding On Darfur, one possibility is that the Council Finally, the issue of justice and accountability sanctions options, the Committee will continue to leave UNAMID’s deploy- remains in the background. The issue is rarely decided on a limited response in a letter ment issues to the Secretariat and to the discussed in the Council, even in the light of to Sudan requesting more details regard- newly-formed Friends of UNAMID, with Sudan’s non-compliance with resolution 1593 ing the individuals in question and their support from bilateral diplomatic initiatives. and its lack of cooperation with the ICC. alleged conduct. A second option is a more forward-looking Council Dynamics strategy, mandating Council experts to Council members appear increasingly Related Developments in the meet regularly to discuss issues frustrating alarmed with the recent humanitarian and Human Rights Council (HRC) UNAMID’s deployment and prepare letters human rights developments in Darfur, On 10 March, Special Rapporteur Sima for the Council president or other demarches Sudan’s military tactics, the dim prospects Samar briefed the HRC on her recent under the “silence” procedure to influence for political reconciliation and for UNAMID. human rights report on Sudan. The the parties concerned. A degree of cooperation regarding UNA- report notes that “the protection of A third option is to try to reenergise the MID’s asset requirements has emerged—but human rights in the Sudan remains an political reconciliation process by: basically outside the Council context. Initia- enormous challenge.” Despite some n seeking regular exchanges with the tives such as the Friends of UNAMID seem progress with the drafting of new laws, mediation team, perhaps in an informal to have helped a little. In terms of contacts this had not had an impact on the human setting of meetings of experts; with Sudan, China appears to have adopted rights situation. n strongly demanding a ceasefire, and a stronger position, having reportedly sig- Regarding Darfur, Samar told the HRC perhaps setting a deadline; and nalled that Sudan should show more that Khartoum and Darfur rebels had n reminding the parties of their obligations flexibility on UNAMID. “failed in their responsibility to provide towards the ICC under resolution 1593. More pressure on the rebels to return to the protection to civilians in areas under A fourth option is to shift to a specifically negotiating table is favoured by a number of their control and are violating interna- regional approach to the resolution of the Council members including China, Russia tional human rights law and international issues, and to incorporate some or all of the and Libya. However, other members (includ- humanitarian law.” (An 18 March report above elements in such an approach. ing the US, the UK and France) have argued by the High Commissioner for Human that consideration of the sanctions option Rights also found that “the scale of Key Issues should include the conduct of all parties. destruction of civilian property” in the On the north-south situation, the key issue Indonesia appears ready to propose that is that the CPA’s implementation is still at

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org the Council demands a ceasefire backed UNAMID: Duration by a threat of further measures. 31 July 2007 to present; mandate SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT UN Documents expires 31 July 2008 Monthly Selected Security Council Resolutions UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General APR 2008 • S/RES/1769 (31 July 2007) estab- FORECAST Ashraf Qazi (Pakistan) lished UNAMID. • S/RES/1672 (25 April 2006), 1591 UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost government immediately remove restric- (29 March 2005) and 1556 (30 July • Maximum authorised strength: up to tions on fuel supplies. The Council 2004) imposed sanctions. 10,000 military and 715 police personnel apparently decided to extend the mission’s • S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred • Strength as of 29 February 2008: mandate for six months because it did not Darfur to the ICC. 8,718 troops, 568 military observers, want to be seen as acquiescing to con- • S/RES/1590 (24 March 2005) and 695 police straints imposed by Eritrea. It reiterated its established UNMIS. • Main troop contributors: India, demand in a press statement on 4 February and requested Eritrea to facilitate the work Latest Secretary-General’s Reports Pakistan and Bangladesh • Cost: 1 July 2007 - 30 June 2008: of a UN technical assessment mission due • S/2008/98 (14 February 2008) was the $887.33 million in the region that month. latest UNAMID report. • S/2008/64 (31 January 2008) was the UNMIS: Duration On 1 February, the Secretary-General latest UNMIS report. 24 March 2005 to present; mandate wrote to inform the Council that he had not received a response to his letter to Presi- Other expires 30 April 2008 dent Afwerki and indicated that if fuel • High Commissioner for Human Rights’ supplies were not reinstated by 6 February report on the January-February mili- he would be compelled to begin relocation tary attacks against three towns in Ethiopia-Eritrea of UNMEE from Eritrea to ensure the West Darfur (20 March 2008), avail- mission’s safety. On 11 February, UNMEE’s Expected Council Action able at http://www.ohchr.org/EN/ relocation from Eritrea commenced by In April, the Council is expected to focus on NewsEvents/Pages/media.aspx. land to designated sites in Ethiopia after the future of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and • S/PV.5849 (11 March 2008) was the the assessment mission finalised an emer- Eritrea (UNMEE) following the mission’s recent Mulet briefing. gency relocation plan during its visit to recent evacuation from Eritrea. A report • A/HRC/7/22 (3 March 2008) was the Addis Ababa from 6 to 11 February. The (due at press time) with options and rec- recent Sudan human rights report to mission was unable to visit Eritrea as the ommendations is expected from the the HRC. local authorities refused it entry. On 14 Secretary-General. UNMEE’s mandate • S/AC.51/2008/7 (5 February 2008) February, the UN Secretariat briefed expires on 31 July. were the conclusions of the Working UNMEE troop contributors on the reloca- Group on Children and Armed Conflict Key Recent Developments tion. They, in turn, expressed concern regarding Sudan. A crisis has been building for UNMEE over about the deteriorating situation and the • S/2007/584 (2 October 2007) was the recent months. It reached a critical point on safety of UNMEE personnel. latest Panel of Experts’ report. 1 December when the Eritrean authorities The Council issued a presidential statement froze fuel deliveries to the mission. The on 15 February condemning Eritrea’s lack Other Relevant Facts Secretary-General alerted the Council in a of cooperation with UNMEE, stating that it UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special letter on 21 January. He indicated that, as a held Eritrea responsible for the safety and Representative for Darfur last resort, he would send a letter appeal- security of UNMEE while also expressing its Rodolphe Adada (Republic of Congo) ing to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to determination to consider “further steps.” In intervene personally to ensure reinstate- UN and AU Special Envoys closed consultations on 21 February, the ment of fuel supplies. On 25 January, the UN: Jan Eliasson (Sweden) Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeep- Secretary-General’s Acting Special Repre- AU: Salim A. Salim (Tanzania) ing Operations, Edmond Mulet, briefed the sentative for UNMEE, Azouz Ennifar, briefed Council on the relocation process and its UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost the Council in consultations on the Secre- difficulties. Eritrea subsequently disputed • Maximum authorised strength: up to tary-General’s regular report on the the UN Secretariat’s reports on the obsta- 19,555 military, 3,772 police and 19 situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The cles posed to UNMEE’s relocation in a letter formed police units report recommended extending UNMEE’s to the president of the Council on 5 March. • Strength as of 10 March 2008: 7,441 mandate for only one month in view of the military, 1,597 police, and one formed stoppage of fuel supplies. On 13 March, the Under Secretary-General police unit for Peacekeeping Operations, Jean-Marie On 30 January, the Council decided to • Main troop contributors: Nigeria, Guéhenno, updated the Council on the extend the mandate of UNMEE until 31 Rwanda, South Africa and Senegal Secretary-General’s 3 March special report July and demanded that the Eritrean • Cost: 1 July 2007 - 30 June 2008: on the UNMEE relocation. The report gave $1.28 billion

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  an update on the efforts to temporarily relo- Council Dynamics Selected Letters cate UNMEE military personnel from Eritrea Council members seem to tacitly acknowl- • S/2008/172 (10 March 2008) con- to their home countries and Ethiopia, as edge that they have not dealt effectively tained Eritrea’s response to the well as the obstacles posed by the Eritrean with the situation between Ethiopia and Secretary-General’s report on the authorities to the effort. It also indicated Eritrea leading to Eritrean frustrations over relocation of UNMEE. that a residual presence of UNMEE person- implementation of the Ethiopia-Eritrea • S/2008/156 (4 March 2008) was the nel would be retained in Asmara, including Boundary Commission (EEBC) decisions. letter conveying Eritrea’s response to the Deputy Special Representative and However, Council members disagree with the UN Secretariat’s reports on Chief of Mission Support, to secure and the methods adopted by Eritrea particularly Eritrea’s conduct. inventory equipment and materiel left its tactic of stifling UNMEE’s operations to • S/2008/148 (3 March 2008) conveyed behind and to provide essential liaison ser- draw attention to the issue. a document from the Permanent vices. UNMEE personnel deployed on the Mission of Eritrea to the UN seeking to Ethiopian side would remain there until the A consensus is yet to emerge in the Council refocus attention on the need for the Council decided the future of the mission. on whether UNMEE has a future. The Council to find closure to the Ethiopia- The report also highlighted the Secretari- Secretary-General’s report may facilitate its Eritrea border dispute. at’s various contacts with Eritrea and deliberations in that regard. A major con- • S/2008/66 (1 February 2008) was the Ethiopia. In a letter to the president of the cern is whether it will be possible to obtain letter from the Secretary-General to Council on 10 March, Eritrea disputed the the consent of both host countries for a the President of the Security Council Secretary-General’s contention that it had modified UN presence in the area in the informing of Eritrea’s continued obstructed UNMEE’s relocation and light of recent developments. Council mem- restrictions of supply of fuel to UNMEE claimed that the UN Secretariat’s commu- bers are concerned about violent conflict if and his intention to send a technical nications with the government on this the Algiers accords (signed in 2000 on the assessment mission to the region. matter left much to be desired and had cessation of hostilities) fail. There is also • S/2008/54 (29 January 2008) con- caused the difficulties. uncertainty about the impact if the moderat- ing effect of a UN presence is removed. tained Eritrea’s response to the report Key Issues of the Secretary-General on Ethiopia The main issue for the Council is how to Another major factor is the concern of troop- and Eritrea (S/2008/40). avoid a relapse into violent conflict between contributing countries that are unhappy at • S/2007/693 (30 November 2007) Ethiopia and Eritrea and whether in light of both the performance of the Security Coun- contained Eritrea’s response to a letter recent events there is still a useful role for cil and the treatment of UNMEE personnel dated 27 November from Ethiopia’s UNMEE. The related underlying issue of by Eritrea. foreign minister to the President of compliance with the border demarcation In the long term, most Council members the EEBC. remains to be addressed in this regard. A expect to return their focus to the core issue • S/2007/660 (8 November 2007) con- series of immediate issues include ensuring of implementing the Algiers accords and tained Eritrea’s position on the EEBC. the safe relocation of all UNMEE personnel securing Ethiopia’s cooperation. • S/2007/580 (27 September 2007) and securing the mission’s equipment. contained Eritrea’s position regarding Belgium is the lead country on the issue in Ethiopia’s perspective on its perceived Options the Council. breaches of the Algiers Agreement. Options before the Council include: • S/2007/366 (15 June 2007) con- n credibly addressing the need for Ethiopia UN Documents tained Eritrea’s position on the to accept fully and without delay the Selected Security Council Resolutions border conflict. boundary decision as a means finding • S/2007/350 (8 June 2007) contained effective closure to the matter; • S/RES/1798 (30 January 2008) extended UNMEE’s mandate until 31 Ethiopia’s position on the April n continuing with ad hoc fragments of progress report of the Secretary- UNMEE as an alternative, including relo- July 2008. General and 8 May press statement cating the force headquarters and its • S/RES/1312 (31 July 2000) estab- of the Council. integral units from Eritrea to Ethiopia, and lished UNMEE. • S/2006/1036 (28 December 2006) transforming UNMEE into an observer Selected Presidential Statement contained Eritrea’s position on mission supported by a smaller military- • S/PRST/2008/7 (15 February 2008) the appointment of a special protection force (perhaps with liaison condemning Eritrea’s lack of coopera- representative. offices in Addis Ababa and Asmara); and tion with UNMEE which had made the • S/2006/890 (15 November 2006) and n encouraging the AU and its members mission’s temporary relocation from 905 (20 November 2006) contained with influence in the region to engage the country inevitable, and stated that respectively Ethiopia’s and Eritrea’s with both parties to find a closure to the it held Eritrea responsible for the position on the EEBC’s intention to border dispute. safety and security of UNMEE. convene a meeting on options for • S/PRST/2007/43 (13 November 2007) moving the demarcation process reiterated the Council’s call on Ethio- forward. pia and Eritrea to implement the 2002 boundary decision without delay.

10 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Selected Secretary-General’s Reports Key Recent Developments The intense fighting in West Darfur involv- • S/2008/145 (3 March 3008) was a ing the Sudanese government and the special report on the temporary relo- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT rebel Justice and Equality Movement cation of UNMEE from Eritrea. Monthly (JEM) has led to the arrival of tens of thou- • S/2008/40 (23 January 2008) was the sands of new Sudanese refugees in Chad, APR 2008 latest regular UNMEE report. FORECAST adding to the existing 250,000. There are • S/2007/33 (22 January 2007) included also an estimated 180,000 internally the EEBC report with a response to to propose a framework for talks to the displaced Chadians. criticisms by Ethiopia from its government by 31 March. (The committee includes government officials, opposition November 2006 letter. In Chad, concern at a possible new rebel groups, rebels and civil society.) • S/2006/992 (15 December 2006) offensive continues. The government contained options for UNMEE and the extended the state of emergency, but The security situation in the CAR further dete- November 2006 EEBC decision. observers note this has also been used to riorated after a group of Ugandan rebels Selected Secretary-General’s crackdown on the political opposition as a belonging to the Lord’s Resistance Army Press Release viable political force. (LRA) crossed the border from the Demo- • SC/9240 (4 February 2008) was a cratic Republic of the Congo in early March. The situation along the border between press statement demanding immedi- LRA leader and International Criminal Court Sudan and Chad is highly volatile. In early ate resumption of fuel supplies to indictee Joseph Kony is believed to be March, a French soldier died and another UNMEE and requesting the Eritrea to amongst LRA fighters in the CAR. There were was wounded after their vehicle inadver- facilitate the work of a UN technical reports of looting and abductions from an tently crossed into Sudan from Chad as assessment mission due in that region. LRA attack against a village in southern CAR. part of a reconnaissance mission under the EU Force (EUFOR). Options Other Relevant Facts Options for the Council include: On 17 March, EUFOR was officially declared Special Representative of the n continuing the wait-and-see approach; Secretary-General and Chief of Mission operational. n adopting a low-key regional approach by Vacant, pending appointment; acting On 12 March, Chad and Sudan signed a establishing regular Council expert meet- representative Azouz Ennifar (Tunisia) new agreement to defuse tensions and stop ings with concerned member states, the Size and Composition mutual support for rebels. The Dakar agree- Libyan-Congolese mediators and the AU, and by supporting reconciliation efforts • Authorised maximum strength: ment also established an international by the Secretary-General’s Special Rep- 4,200 military personnel contact group reportedly including Congo, resentative, Victor da Silva Ângelo; • Strength as of 31 January 2008: Gabon, Libya and Senegal to oversee n managing the challenges by considering 1,674 military personnel implementation. a mandate for MINURCAT on political • Key troop-contributing countries: It was the latest in a series of attempts to reconciliation in Chad, perhaps including India, Jordan and Kenya improve Chad-Sudan relations. However, as support for the Libyan-Congolese media- Cost with previous such agreements, there are tion and coordination with the AU and Approved budget: 1 July 2007-30 June concerns about its effectiveness. Sudan UNAMID; and reportedly expressed scepticism about the 2008: $118.99 million n following the situation in northwestern usefulness of a new agreement while rebels Duration CAR more closely, perhaps including a dismissed its potential for improving the situa- statement expressing concern and sup- 31 July 2000 to present; mandate expires tion. In late March, Chad and Sudan accused porting political reconciliation efforts. 31 July 2008 each other of violating the agreement. Key Issues In the CAR, the situation remains highly The key issue is whether and how to volatile. The rebel Armée populaire pour la become more involved in promoting politi- Chad/Central African restauration de la démocratie (APRD) is still cal reconciliation in Chad and CAR as part Republic active in the northwest, a region outside the of a wider regional approach. Related area of operations of MINURCAT and Expected Council Action issues include: EUFOR. There are reports that the APRD Consultations on Chad and the Central n the continuing destabilisation in Chad and the Chadian army have become African Republic (CAR) are expected in and the potential for further deterioration embroiled in inter-communal tensions in April. Members now expect by early April of Chad-Sudan relations and a region- the area, with a number of Chadian army the Secretary-General’s progress report on alised conflict; incursions noted particularly in January the UN Mission in the Central African Repub- n security risks for MINURCAT and EUFOR through March. Displacement and abuse of lic and Chad (MINURCAT). A statement is if they are perceived as taking sides and civilians continues. possible, particularly if the security situation as a result are dragged into the conflict; deteriorates further. MINURCAT’s mandate A domestic committee for the establishment n managing the complexities of coordinat- expires on 25 September. of political dialogue in the CAR is expected ing simultaneous deployments in Chad and Darfur; and

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 11 n operational challenges for the EU and UN MINURCAT: Duration tias, and the unification and restructuring of deployments, including assets, logistics, the defence and security forces). The Coun- September 2007 to present; mandate the volatile operational environment and cil accepted the Supplementary Agreements, expires on 25 September 2008 management, as well as political and signed on 28 November by President Lau- security developments in Darfur. EU Force: Size, Composition and Cost rent Gbagbo and Prime Minister Guillaume • Expected strength: 3,700 troops and Soro, which delayed the date for national Council Dynamics 600 on reserve. elections until June. The Council requested There is awareness of the potential for a • Expected main contributors: France, the Secretary-General to keep it regularly regionalised conflict, and the wider links Ireland, Poland, Sweden and Finland informed, particularly about the preparations between the sources of conflict in Sudan, • Cost: EUR 119.6 million for the elections. Chad, CAR and rebel groups, and related risks for EUFOR and MINURCAT. But Coun- EU Force: Duration The Secretary-General reported on 2 Janu- cil members so far appear inclined to 17 March 2008 to present; mandate ary that while security and political conditions continue with a wait-and-see approach expires on 17 March 2009. in Côte d’Ivoire had improved in recent leaving the issues to initiatives by regional BONUCA: Special Representative of the months, those gains were fragile in light of neighbours and others such as France. Secretary-General the slow progress in achieving key bench- François Lonseny Fall (Guinea) marks of the Ouagadougou Agreement, UN Documents including those concerning the dismantling BONUCA: Size Selected Security Council Resolution of militias and disarming ex-combatants. He Strength as of 30 November 2007: 27 explained that while the national armed • S/RES/1778 (25 September 2007) international staff, five military, six police forces and those of the Forces Nouvelles established MINURCAT and autho- had shown more resolve to collaborate, rised the EU protection force. BONUCA: Duration “systematic factors of instability” continued Selected Presidential Statement 15 February 2000 to present; mandate expires 31 December 2008 to pose a threat to the future of the peace • S/PRST/2008/3 (4 February 2008) process. These factors include the lack of FOMUC: Size and Composition contained an expression of support to significant progress in unifying the defence external military assistance to the • Current strength: 500 troops and security forces and the dismantling of Chadian government. • Contributors: Gabon, Republic of militias, as well as a rise in criminal activities Latest Secretary-General’s Reports Congo and Chad due to weapons proliferation. FOMUC: Duration • S/2007/739 (17 December 2007) was The Secretary-General noted that achieving on MINURCAT. October 2002 to present; mandate the goals set out in the various agreements • S/2007/697 (5 December 2007) was expires 31 December 2009 would require a redoubling of efforts by the on the UN Peacebuilding Office in the parties and their international partners, CAR (BONUCA). including provision of resources required Other Côte D’Ivoire for a number of key processes, the identifi- • S/2008/160 (5 March 2008) was a cation of the population, voter registration, Sudanese letter on the recent border Expected Council Action disarmament and the reestablishment of incident involving EUFOR. The Council will review the Secretary-Gen- state authority. He further noted that • S/2008/139 (4 March 2008) contained eral’s report, due 15 April, on preparations developments since the signing of the an AU communiqué on Chad encour- for the electoral process in Côte d’Ivoire. supplementary agreements to the Ouaga­ aging mediation by the Republic of The sanctions’ Group of Experts is expected dougou Agreement were encouraging and Congo and Libya. to submit its interim report to the Côte might later lead to proposals for a gradual d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee. The Council downsizing of UNOCI troop levels. will review the sanctions regime, particularly Other Relevant Facts On 17 March, UNOCI transferred control of sanctions against individuals and diamond three disarmament facilities in the country’s MINURCAT: Special Representative of sanctions, by 30 April. (The mandate of the the Secretary-General northern region, which has been under the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) con- de facto control of the rebel Forces Nou- Victor da Silva Ângelo (Portugal) tinues until 30 July). velles since 2002, to the Ivorian Government MINURCAT: Size, Composition and Cost Recent Developments as part of a new beginning for the disarma- • Authorised strength: up to 300 police On 15 January 2008, the Council renewed ment, demobilisation and reintegration and fifty military liaison officers the mandate of UNOCI and the French forces (DDR) effort. At a ceremony held to mark • Strength as of 29 February 2008: 57 until 30 July to assist the Ivorian parties in the event in the northern town of Ferkesse- police and six military observers implementing the outstanding objectives dougou, 118 former rebel fighters • Main police contributors: Côte under the 2007 Ouagadougou Agreement surrendered their weapons to formally join d’Ivoire, France, Mali and Niger (including identification and registration of the DDR process outlined by the Ouaga- • Cost: approved budget 1 July 2007– voters, disarmament and dismantling of mili- dougou Agreement. 30 June 2008: $182.44 million

12 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org The Secretary-General’s Special Represen- Options tative (SRSG) to Côte d’Ivoire, Choi Options before the Council include: Young-Jin, and President Blaise Compaoré n maintaining the current sanctions SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT of Burkina Faso, facilitator of the Ivorian regime; Monthly peace process, met on 23 January in Oua- n renewing sanctions with modifications gadougou to discuss ways of accelerating (an unlikely option at this stage, espe- APR 2008FORECAST the peace process underway in Côte cially since the Ivorian authorities have d’Ivoire to end the crisis that has divided the not yet made a formal request to the • S/RES/1782 (29 October 2007) country between the rebel-held north and Sanctions Committee for any specific extended the sanctions regime until government-controlled south since 2002. exemption); and 31 October 2008. n addressing the risk of postponement of • S/RES/1765 (16 July 2007) extended On 28 February, the director of UNOCI’s the national elections scheduled for June the mandate of UNOCI until 15 electoral assistance division, Ahmedou El and perhaps approving procedures for January 2008. Becaye Seck, announced in Abidjan that closer monitoring of progress in the com- • S/RES/1761 (20 June 2007) extended the mission had repaired almost 90 percent ing months. the mandate of the Group of Experts of polling stations across Côte d’Ivoire until 31 October 2007. ahead of the national presidential elections Council Dynamics • S/RES/1727 (15 December 2006) planned for June. UNOCI had also assisted Council members appear pleased with the renewed the sanctions regime until 31 in updating the country’s electoral cartogra- relative progress being made in stabilising October 2007. phy to enable easier identification of the the security situation in Côte d’Ivoire. How- • S/RES/1721 (1 November 2006) population and register voters before the ever, consensus seems to be emerging prolonged by one year the transitional polls by local authorities. within the Council that the sanctions regime period in Côte d’Ivoire and reinforced and the mandate and size of UNOCI should In mid-February, the 2007 annual UN report the powers of the prime minister. not be changed until after the elections. on children and armed conflict was issued, Council members remain anxious about Latest Presidential Statement indicating that Côte d’Ivoire had been taken progress with the elections and are await- • S/PRST/2007/8 (28 March 2007) off the UN Secretary-General’s global list of ing the Secretary-General’s report to inform endorsed the Ouagadougou Agree- child recruiters because militias and other their deliberations. There is a fear that it is ment, supported the appointment of armed groups were said to have stopped becoming less likely that elections will be Guillaume Soro as prime minister and recruiting children into their ranks. However, held in June because of the slow pace in requested a report from the Secretary- some NGOs operating in the country, such meeting benchmarks (e.g. identification General on the UN’s future role in the as Save the Children, say that while there is and registration of voters, the disarmament peace process. no evidence that children are being recruited process and dismantling of militia, and the or are active soldiers, many are still associ- Latest Security Council Press Statement unification and restructuring of the defence ated with the armed forces and are working • SC/9152 (23 October 2007) and security forces). for combatants by cooking, cleaning and Latest Secretary-General’s Report running errands. Some Council members (e.g. Indonesia, • S/2008/1 (2 January 2008) was the South Africa and China) have in the past On 25 March, election certification criteria Secretary-General’s latest report on pushed for some form of relaxation of sanc- proposed by the SRSG were welcomed by UNOCI. tions in line with positive developments in the Ivoirian parties and promulgated. Other the country. However, there now seems to Key Issues be an understanding within the Council to • S/2007/611 (17 October 2007) was the A major issue is assessing progress of the adopt a cautious approach on sanctions latest report of the Group of Experts electoral process, which appears to be slow. around negative developments on the on Côte d’Ivoire. ground by scheduling periodic reports. • S/2007/515 (30 August 2007) was the Another key issue is the review of the sanc- report of the Secretary-General on tions regime on Côte d’Ivoire (arms France traditionally plays a leading role children and armed conflict in Côte embargo, assets freeze, travel ban and dia- on this issue in the Council together with d’Ivoire. mond sanctions). The Ivorian authorities African members. • S/2007/223 (19 April 2007) was the have not requested any specific exemp- latest International Working Group’s UN Documents tions from the sanctions regime although communiqué, requesting its two co- the Council has indicated its preparedness Latest Security Council Resolutions chairs to consult with ECOWAS and to consider a request along those lines (e.g. • S/RES/1795 (15 January 2008) the AU on its future role and recom- partial lifting of the arms embargo for law extended the mandate of UNOCI until mendations to Security Council. and order purposes). 30 July 2008 and requested a report • S/2007/144 (13 March 2007) con- on the preparation of the electoral tained the Ouagadougou Agreement. process no later than 15 April 2008.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 13 Other Relevant Facts concern about “unilateral actions that exac- momentum to the process. The three coun- erbated the situation in Kosovo;” and calls tries issued a joint statement saying their Special Representative of the for a roadmap for Kosovo settlement and a decision was based on “thorough consider- Secretary-General resumption of dialogue between Serbia ation” and underlining the importance of Choi Young-Jin (Republic of Korea) and Kosovo. protecting the Serb minority. Serbia has Group of Experts declared that countries that recognise Key Recent Developments Kosovo are in breach of international law. It Grégoire Bafouatika, Republic of Congo On 17 March, a tense situation in northern has recalled its ambassadors from countries (aviation) Kosovo erupted into violence. Three days that have extended recognition. Agim de Bruycker, Belgium (diamonds) earlier a UN court building in Mitrovica had Lipika Majumdar Roy Choudhury, India been taken over by Serbs. The UN police, (Please see our Update Report on 10 March (finance/Coordinator of the Group) backed by French NATO peacekeepers, for other developments regarding Kosovo’s Claudio Gramizzi, Italy (arms) retook the court building. Rioters attacked declaration of independence.) Vernon Paul Kulyk, Canada (customs) three UN vehicles, a Ukrainian UN police Key Issues Size and Composition of UNOCI officer was killed, and more than 100 UN A key issue is the potential for further vio- police, NATO peacekeepers and Serb civil- • Strength as of 31 January 2008: 9,138 lence, particularly in the north. A related ians were injured. The unsafe situation total uniformed personnel, including issue is how to respond to Serbian involve- prompted the UN police to move out of 7,840 troops, 187 military observers ment in parallel institutions in northern Mitrovica for two days. On 19 March, UNMIK and 1,111 police Kosovo and the consequential possibility of launched an investigation into the clashes. • Key troop-contributing countries: this “soft partition” becoming entrenched, In a letter to the Council president on 18 Bangladesh, Ghana, Jordan, Morocco and a frozen conflict situation developing. and Pakistan March, Serbia asked the Council to con- sider the deteriorating situation. It also Approved UNOCI Budget A second key issue is how the UN should indicated that it had asked the Secretary- handle direct challenges to UNMIK’s 1 July 2007 - 30 June 2008: General for talks to clarify the relationship authority. The takeover of the court build- $470.86 million between Serbia and UNMIK. ing was seen by UNMIK as a clear red line that justified immediate action. Some The Secretary-General deplored the violent Council members feel the action was hasty attacks against UN personnel and urged all and could have been resolved without vio- Kosovo communities “to exercise calm and lence. A connected issue for the future is restraint.” He also pledged that the UN Expected Council Action whether and when UNMIK and NATO would take all measures required to imple- In April the Secretary-General’s Special forces will use force in trying to maintain ment its mandate. NATO condemned the Representative, Joachim Rücker, will brief stability in northern Kosovo. violence and said it would respond firmly the Council on the Secretary-General’s lat- under its UN mandate to any acts of vio- est report on the UN Mission in Kosovo A third key issue is the differences in the lence following its UN mandate. Russia (UNMIK), expected at the end of March. Council over the interpretation of resolution expressed misgivings about the wisdom of This is the first UNMIK report since Kosovo 1244 and specifically the implications for resisting the Serb occupation and made declared independence on 17 February and UNMIK’s presence. Related to this is the accusations of lack of restraint. The US con- there is a high level of interest in what the dilemma the Council may face in support- demned the violence against the UN police Secretary-General may say about UNMIK ing the Secretary-General. So far he has and NATO troops. and whether it will reveal a trend towards: continued to use 1244 as the legal frame- work for UNMIK’s presence and scope n leaving UNMIK more or less as is for the In mid-March, Serbia submitted a plan for of activities. meantime; the functional division of Serb and Albanian n drawing down UNMIK staff consistent populations in Kosovo. The proposal If the Secretary-General indicates that he is with a reduced level of operations; or acknowledges UNMIK’s authority in Kosovo going to restructure UNMIK in the light of n withdrawing UNMIK altogether. but claims that the police, judiciary and cus- developments, the question becomes what toms should be controlled by Serbs in parts Consultations are also possible, if the situa- is needed to give effect to such a decision. of Kosovo where Serbs are a majority. (The tion in northern Kosovo deteriorates. At the Some feel that no new resolution is needed. proposal, rejected by the Kosovo govern- time of writing, a presidential statement pro- Others are likely to insist that UNMIK ment, is a first step from the current “soft” posed by Russia was still being discussed. cannot be adjusted without amending partition to a more definitive but still de facto Further initiatives from Russia are conceiv- resolution 1244. new status for northern Kosovo.) able. The Russian draft reaffirms resolution A continuing issue is whether other territo- 1244 (which established UNMIK in 1999) Since the declaration of independence on ries with independence aspirations are and the composition of the international 17 February, 33 countries (18 from the EU) being stimulated by Kosovo’s action. presences authorised by 1244; reiterates have formally recognised Kosovo. Some Related to this is whether some govern- the importance of resolving problems in the observers see the recognition by near neigh- ments might now react more strongly region by peaceful means; expresses bours—Croatia and Hungary on 19 March, against autonomy movements lest they and Bulgaria on 20 March—as giving new show signs of wanting independence.

14 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Options UN Documents The Council’s options will depend largely on the evolving security situation and on Security Council Resolution SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT what the Secretary-General may suggest in • S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) autho- Monthly his report. Given the deadlock over this rised NATO to secure and enforce the issue it is likely that the majority in the Coun- withdrawal of Yugoslav (FRY) forces APR 2008FORECAST cil will prefer to simply have the briefing but from Kosovo and established UNMIK. take no action. Selected Presidential Statements Other One option if the Council wants to be kept • S/PRST/2005/51 (24 October 2005) • S/PV.5839 (18 February 2008) was the better informed of the situation on the declared it was time to begin the open meeting following Kosovo’s ground is to request the Secretary-General political process to determine the independence declaration. to provide monthly briefings. future status of Kosovo. • Statement issued on 17 February 2008 by the UK, France, Croatia, Selected Letters Although unlikely given the current dynam- Belgium, Italy, Germany and the US. ics in the Council, other options still remain, • A/62/703-S/2008/111 (17 February • Statement issued on 20 July 2007 by including: 2008) was the letter from Serbia on its Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, UK n beginning work on a resolution to replace position on Kosovo’s declaration of and the US, co-sponsors of the draft 1244, refocusing UNMIK and authorising independence. resolution on Kosovo presented to the the EU mission; • A/62/700-S/2008/108 (17 February Council on 17 July. 2008) was the letter from Russia n agreeing to a new framework for negotia- • Draft resolution on Kosovo (formally tions between Pristina and Belgrade; and transmitting its Foreign Ministry’s circulated on 17 July 2007 but n requesting UNMIK to work with Serbia statement on Kosovo following the withdrawn on 20 July 2007). on the key concerns such as the status declaration of independence and of the Kosovo Serb population, the Ser- calling for an immediate emergency bian Orthodox Church, customs, judges meeting of the Council. and police. • S/2008/104 (17 February 2008) was Georgia the letter from Russia supporting Ser- Council Dynamics bia’s request for a meeting. Expected Council Action The Council is expected to renew the man- While Council members agree that 1244 • S/20008/103 (17 February 2008) was date of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia and UNMIK should continue and on the the letter from Serbia asking for an (UNOMIG) which expires on 15 April. need for the Secretary-General to report emergency public meeting after regularly to the Council, members are con- Kosovo declared independence. The Council will discuss the Secretary- tinuing to apply differing interpretations of • S/2008/93 (12 February 2008) was the General’s report on the situation in 1244. Some (the US and Europeans) see letter from Russia supporting Serbia’s Abkhazia in early April and is likely to be 1244 as consistent with the EU mission. request for meeting of the Council. briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Others (like Russia) feel that this is con- • S/2008/92 (12 February 2008) was the Representative, Jean Arnault. Options to trary to 1244. Positions appear to be letter from Serbia requesting an urgent improve confidence-building efforts as rigidifying. China, at the time of Kosovo’s meeting of the Council to consider the well as possibilities for strengthening declaration of independence, said that it situation in Kosovo. UNOMIG’s patrolling capacity are likely to was “gravely concerned.” It may now take • S/2008/7 (4 January 2008) was the be discussed. a stronger position against the indepen- letter from Serbia commenting on the dence declaration. Secretary-General’s December Key Recent Developments Russia on 6 March withdrew from the sanc- In discussing Russia’s proposed presiden- UNMIK report. tions regime that had been established in tial statement members were unable to agree • S/2007/168 and Add. 1 (26 March 1996 by the Executive Committee of the on even basic common elements. While a lot 2007) was the letter transmitting UN Commonwealth of Independent States of energy has been put into this issue, with Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari’s report (CIS) to put pressure on Abkhazia. Russia numerous meetings over the past 12 months, on Kosovo’s future status and the announced to the CIS that “by reason of a the Council has only managed to issue one Comprehensive Proposal for the change in the circumstances” it was no press statement (condemning the mob Kosovo Status Settlement. longer bound to ban trade, economic, attacks on embassies in Belgrade on 20 Selected Reports financial and transport ties with Abkhazia. February). Instead, public statements have • S/2007/768 (3 January 2008) was the Georgia described Russia’s action as an been made by different groups or member last report of the Secretary-General on “overt attempt” to infringe on its sover- states conveying their particular positions, UNMIK. eignty and territorial integrity and create a thus providing a clear picture of the • S/2007/723(10 December 2007) was “threat of destabilization.” Both countries divisions within the Council. the report of the Troika. outlined their positions in letters circulated Many of the non-permanent members are as UN documents. The US and the EU increasingly ready to see Kosovo become a expressed concern at Russia’s move and less active issue on the Council’s agenda.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 15 support for Georgia’s territorial integrity. Council member, will attend meetings in on questions of sovereignty and territorial There are also concerns that the lifting of New York.) integrity. Russia may push for a briefing sanctions might lead to more weapons from a representative from Abkhazia to par- Following a visit to Georgia at the end of flowing into the area. ticipate in a closed session. This would February, the UN High Commissioner for meet resistance from the US, which strongly On 7 March, Abkhazia called on Russia, the Human Rights, Louise Arbour, voiced con- supports Georgia’s position. However, past UN, the EU and the Organisation for Secu- cern about conditions in detention facilities US-Russia clashes over participation issues rity and Cooperation in Europe to recognise and asked for results of an official inquiry relating to Kosovo may influence positions its independence. into the crackdown on protestors last on this issue. (In the end, solutions were November to be made public. NATO members remain undecided about a found that allowed both Serbians and Kos- Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Geor- Options ovars to participate.) As with the Kosovo gia—the first step to NATO membership. The most likely option is a six-month man- issue, it is likely that a number of non-per- Georgia’s handling of opposition protests date renewal with no change to UNOMIG’s manent members will prefer to remain on late last year affected its reputation with mandate. The Council may include lan- the sidelines rather than get caught up in some NATO members. The issue is guage urging both sides to exercise restraint this issue. expected to be on the agenda during the and to look for creative ways of bringing NATO summit in Bucharest on 2-3 April. about a political settlement. UN Documents Russia’s incoming president, Dmitry Med- Latest Security Council Resolution Key Issues vedev, on 25 March spoke out against A key issue is whether Russia’s decision to • S/RES/1781 (15 October 2007) NATO membership for Georgia. Russia has unilaterally lift CIS sanctions on Abkhazia extended UNOMIG until 15 April 2008. also warned that giving Georgia NATO will result in Georgia showing less flexibility. Selected Secretary-General’s Report membership would push Russia to recog- • S/2008/38 (23 January 2008) was the nise the independence of South Ossetia Another key issue is whether the more tense latest Secretary-General’s report on and Abkhazia. environment will heighten the risk of conflict the situation in Abkhazia. between Georgian and Abkhaz forces. Russia’s Duma on 13 March recommended Some observers believe that Georgia’s Selected Letters to the President of that the Russian government open “mis- behaviour has been constrained by its the Council sions” in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as desire for NATO membership. If NATO • S/2008/168 (10 March 2008) was the well as Moldova’s Transdnestr region. On membership looks unlikely in the near letter from Russia on its withdrawal 21 March, it adopted a nonbinding declara- future, Georgia may have less cause to hold from the regime of restrictions on tion urging the Kremlin to consider “the back when faced with Abkhaz provocation. Abkhazia. question of expediency of recognising the With the end of winter, there are also con- • S/2008/167 (7 March 2008) was the independence of Abkhazia and South cerns that the potential for open conflict is letter from Georgia conveying its Ossetia,” thus moving closer but still stop- likely to rise. reaction to Russia‘s withdrawal from ping short of an outright call for formal the regime of restrictions. recognition. In his 18 March meeting with Another issue is whether in these circum- the Secretary-General, Georgian President stances UNOMIG has the resources to fulfil Other Relevant Facts Mikheil Saakashvili discussed implications its mandate. Unmanned aerial vehicles of Kosovo’s declaration of independence have been discussed but the Abkhaz side Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission on Georgia. has raised questions about possible mis- use of these vehicles. Jean Arnault (France) Earlier in the year there had been hopes UNOMIG: Size and Composition that relations between Georgia and Russia A continuing question is whether the would improve. Following his re-election in Council can do more to break the political • Authorised strength as of 31 January the 5 January snap presidential election, deadlock. Related to this is Georgia’s 2009: 149 total uniformed personnel, Saakashvili showed willingness to mend request for a review of the peace process. including 131 military observers and ties with Moscow. On 21 February, he met The Secretariat is undertaking an internal 18 police Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of assessment of UNOMIG’s role and may • Key troop contributors: Germany, the informal CIS summit. This ended on a be able to offer some suggestions later Pakistan and Bangladesh positive note with both sides expressing this year. Duration hope for better relations. A promising sign August 1993 to present was that airline service recently resumed Council Dynamics Cost after being suspended last year. Last year, Kosovo overshadowed the issues in Georgia. Now there is awareness that the 1 July 2007-30 June 2008: $36.71 million The Group of Friends of the Secretary- Georgian situation needs greater attention, (gross) General of Georgia met in Geneva on 18-19 particularly if Abkhazia continues to push Other Facts February. (The Group consists of France, for independence. Many members are Size of CIS troops: about 1,800 Russian Germany, Russia, the UK and US. Croatia, expecting tough discussions on the resolu- troops as the newly elected Eastern European tion given the current mood in the Council

16 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Haiti unclear when. The constitution, however, is difficult to amend. A related issue in Haiti is Expected Council Action a proposal to allow dual citizenship (cur- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT In April, the Council is expected to hold con- rently forbidden) so that members of the Monthly sultations and discuss a report on the UN Haitian diaspora could return and play a Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). role in Haiti’s political process. APR 2008FORECAST On 15 October 2007, resolution 1780 At the end of February a vote of non-confi- renewed the MINUSTAH mandate until n reiterate the importance of indicators of dence in Prime Minister Jacques-Edouard October 2008, but requested the Secretary- progress for MINUSTAH; and Alexis, protesting the government’s eco- General to submit interim reports. Council n signal a possible Council mission to Haiti. nomic policy, failed by a large majority. members will be looking to the forthcoming Key Issues report to see whether it contains initial clues An important development for the judicial Key issues the Council is likely to discuss on a consolidation plan for MINUSTAH “with reform process was the adoption by the are: appropriate benchmarks to measure and parliament of three major laws in December n Border security and the fight against track progress.” 2007 on training of magistrates, the status narcotrafficking, in particular whether of magistrates and the Superior Council, Hédi Annabi, the Secretary-General’s the maritime patrols have been put in which will oversee their functions. Special Representative in Haiti, is likely to place (Uruguay pledged to provide sev- brief the Council during April. (He is also On 15 October 2007, the Council extended eral small patrol boats) and whether expected to visit Latin American capitals of MINUSTAH for 12 months and reaffirmed its border management experts will be sent major troop-contributing countries.) role in supporting the Haitian government in to Haiti. constitutional and political processes, insti- n The security situation and how to sus- Key Recent Developments tution-building, police and justice reform, tain recent improvements including the On 21 January, Annabi said the security disarmament and reintegration. The Coun- effectiveness of the gradual increase of situation in Haiti had improved signifi- cil mandated it to undertake deterrent MINUSTAH’s police component at the cantly since major gangs had been actions to decrease the level of violence. expense of the military. Discussions may dismantled, but also said peace and sta- The resolution also reemphasised MINUS- focus on police activities. bility remained fragile. He said the time TAH’s role of coordinator for development n Constitutional and electoral questions, was not ripe for a dramatic downsizing of actors in Haiti. New elements included: in particular President Préval’s constitu- MINUSTAH. It should remain long enough n an endorsement of recommendations tional reform to reduce the frequency to ensure that the UN would never have to made by the Secretary-General for recon- of elections. return, he said. He also referred to the lim- figuring the mission: reducing its military n Judiciary and police reforms are con- ited scope of reconstruction activities that component while increasing the number tinuing issues. There are currently about MINUSTAH could perform as it is not a of police units, and strengthening MINUS- 8,400 Haitian police officers and it is development agency. TAH’s capabilities in border control, estimated that 14,000 are necessary to The situation along the border with the engineering and mobility; ensure minimum security. Dominican Republic deteriorated in recent n support for Haitian efforts to strengthen n Finally, the issue of corruption and months with allegations of cross-border border control, in particular through the response of the Haitian parliament, in incursions, kidnapping and cattle theft. establishment of maritime patrols; particular whether the pace of the parlia- n a call on all humanitarian and develop- ment’s adoption of reform legislation is Allegations of sexual misconduct by Sri ment actors to complement MINUSTAH’s being sustained. Lankan peacekeepers led to the repatria- security operations with activities aimed Another issue is the difficulty in identifying tion on 3 November 2007 of 108 Sri Lankan at improving the population’s living con- suitable benchmarks to track progress. The soldiers (including three commanders)— dition; and out of a contingent of 950. Secretary-General’s report may not contain n a request to the Secretary-General to much detail—more may be available for the provide a “consolidation plan” including On 17 October 2007, President René Préval next reporting cycle in September—but this benchmarks to measure and track stated that the current constitution, estab- issue is likely to colour discussions. Some progress of the implementation of lished in 1987, was a threat to Haiti’s stability members think that this is crucial. However, MINUSTAH’s mandate (conditions under because of its complexity (particularly the others fear the definition of indicators will which MINUSTAH could withdraw). electoral system) and ambiguities. He prematurely determine how much longer called for constitutional reform. Some have Options MINUSTAH will remain. raised suspicions that Preval’s underlying There is little appetite for Council action in A key issue is the link between economic purpose might be to seek to remain in April. A statement may be a possibility. and social development and stability. Some power beyond his term, which ends in 2011. It could: A presidential commission has been tasked members argue that there is a need not only n welcome the Secretary-General’s report; to study elements for reform and is expected to focus on security indicators but also n encourage MINUSTAH’s coordinating development indicators and institutional to submit recommendations, although it is role; indicators (e.g. successful elections,

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 17 improved rule of law, etc). A related issue is ment-related activities—although they UN Documents whether it will be possible to measure the acknowledge the existence of limitations. sustainability of any benchmarks. Selected Security Council Resolution All seem to agree that eventually, full owner- • S/RES/1780 (15 October 2007) Another important issue is the need for ship of the stabilisation process by the renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate for more effective coordination between donors Haitian government is necessary. one year. and other development actors (including Uruguay recently joined the Group of UN agencies) in Haiti, MINUSTAH and the Latest Secretary-General’s Report Friends as a troop contributor. Peru contin- Haitian government. The 2004 to 2006 • S/2007/503 (22 August 2007) ues to be the Group’s coordinator, although Interim Cooperation Framework, which is it no longer a Council member. There is aimed at identifying priority areas of inter- Other Relevant Facts currently no Latin American Group of vention to support Haiti’s development, and Friends’ member on the Council. For that Special Representative of the the monthly UN Heads of Agency meetings Secretary-General reason, and also because of a general inter- and regular donor meetings to coordinate est in Haiti, Panama expressed its desire to Hédi Annabi (Tunisia) aid (usually held by the UN Resident and become a member of the Group of Friends. Deputy Special Representative of the Humanitarian Coordinator), seem not to But its candidacy was rejected ostensibly Secretary-General have worked to harmonise donors’ strate- because Panama does not contribute mili- gies. MINUSTAH has increasingly taken Luiz Carlos da Costa (Brazil) tarily and financially. It seems that both over coordination activities, but for some its Force Commander Panama and Costa Rica, as Council mem- mandate still remains too weak. A related Major General Carlos Alberto dos Santos bers, will be invited to participate in some issue is also whether emphasis should be Cruz (Brazil) discussions of the Group. However, France placed on ownership by the Haitian govern- and the US will take the lead on Haiti in the Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator, ment of development resources, despite Council, replacing Peru. Many within the UNDP Representative legitimate concerns about its capacity to Group of Friends support the idea of a Joel Boutroue (France) properly manage funds and development Council’s visit to Haiti. processes. An international donors’ confer- Size and Composition of Mission ence is scheduled for 25 and 26 April in Despite a general consensus on Haiti, defin- • Authorised strength as of 15 August Port-au-Prince, at the initiative of the Haitian ing indicators of progress may become 2006: military component of up to government, with the aim of strengthening contentious because of differing visions 7,200 troops and police component of coordination among key actors in imple- within the Council on the future of MINUS- up to 1,951 officers menting the final Poverty Reduction Strategy TAH. Some support giving the force a clear • Current strength as of 31 January that the Haitian government outlined in deadline for withdrawal. Mindful of previous 2008: 8,993 total uniformed person- November 2007. mistakes of premature UN withdrawals, nel, including 7,066 troops and 1,927 others want to see clear progress in several police, supported by 498 international Finally, an issue which remains to be dis- important aspects before determining a civilian personnel, 1,140 local civilian cussed is whether the Council should visit timeframe for MINUSTAH’s disengage- staff and 197 UN Volunteers Haiti and when would be the best time. The ment. Such benchmarks would include the • Contributors of military personnel: last Council visit was in April 2005. end of President Préval’s term, reform of the Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Council and Wider Dynamics judiciary, the national police and the prison Chile, Croatia, Ecuador, France, There seems to be an increasing consen- system, and improvements in the economic Guatemala, Jordan, Nepal, Paraguay, sus among the Group of Friends of Haiti situation that would be felt by the popula- Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Sri Lanka, (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, tion. Members of the Group of Friends in United States and Uruguay Peru, Uruguay and the US) and within the particular seem to agree that it is still too • Contributors of police personnel: Council that both security and development early to address the issue of an eventual Argentina, Benin, Brazil, Burkina Faso, are necessary. However, some members drawdown of the force. Some in the Council Cameroon, Canada, Central African (US and Canada) believe that MINUSTAH’s (Burkina Faso, China, South Africa) may be Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colom- development-related activities should be interested in placing Haiti on the agenda of bia, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, DR Congo, limited to quick-impact projects and assis- the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC)— Egypt, El Salvador, France, Grenada, tance to the Haitian government for although not in the very near future—but Guinea, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, institutional reforms and the rule of law, and many others, including the Haitian govern- Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, that development actors such as the UN ment itself, believe that the situation in Haiti Philippines, Romania, Russia, Development Programme should lead on is not ready. Nevertheless, the demand for Rwanda, Senegal, Spain, Sri Lanka, development tasks. They concede that per- benchmarks echoes the PBC’s existing Togo, Turkey, US, Uruguay and Yemen haps MINUSTAH could coordinate indicators for measuring progress in the Cost poverty-reduction strategies. Others (par- transition from conflict to sustainable devel- 1 July 2007 - 30 June 2008: $535.37 ticularly the Latin American members) are opment, and it may be that there are other million pushing for more MINUSTAH’s develop- lessons the Council can draw from the work of the PBC.

18 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Useful Additional Sources resolving disputed internal boundaries, pro- n Peacebuilding in Haiti: Including Haitians viding assistance to refugees willing to from Abroad, International Crisis Group, return, reconstruction and electoral assis- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Latin America/Caribbean Report No. 24, tance, supporting the Iraq Compact and Monthly 14 December 2007 advancing regional dialogue. The US also http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index. gave a briefing on the activities of the MNF-I. APR 2008FORECAST cfm?id=5225&l=1 Despite security gains in late 2007, violent n Paper Versus Steel: Haiti’s Challenge of On 13 February, a package of three pieces death tolls affecting Iraqi civilians rose again Constitutional Reform, Robert Perito and of legislation was adopted by the Iraqi in February. At a US Senate hearing in Jasenka Jocic, US Institute of Peace parliament: Washington on 11 March, the top official at briefing, January 2008 n the 2008 budget ($48 billion); the US Government Accountability Office, http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_ n an amnesty law for some of the 50,000 David Walker, said that although the num- briefings /2008/0110_haiti_constitution. prisoners detained without trial by Iraqi ber of insurgent attacks against the US html and coalition forces (although it includes military had dropped from an average of n Document de stratégie nationale pour la many exceptions); and 180 a day in June 2007 to 60 in September croissance et pour la reduction de la pau- n a law on the power of Iraq’s governor- 2007, the number of attacks has since vreté 2008-2010 [National Strategy for ates—although it remains vague about remained unchanged. Growth and Poverty Reduction 2008- prerogatives given to the governorates 2010, November 2007] (in French only), The situation deteriorated along the Turkey/ on issues such as taxes and the forma- government of Haiti Iraq border. Turkey conducted several air tion of security agencies. http://mpce.gouv.ht/dsrp.htm raids and ground incursions into Kurdistan On 27 February, the Presidential Council n A Window of Opportunity for Haiti–Interim to fight insurgents from the Kurdistan sent the governorates law back to parlia- Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, World Workers Party. On 22 February, Secretary- ment for amendment. At issue are two Bank, 27 September 2006 General Ban Ki-moon called for utmost provisions said to be contrary to the consti- siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPRS1/ restraint from both sides in border actions. tution: the right of the Iraqi parliament to Resources/Haiti_I-PRSP(Sept27-2006).pdf On 22 February, Moqtada al-Sadr extended dismiss a local governor by absolute major- for another six months a ceasefire on his ity and the timing of provincial elections, set Mahdi Army militia. However, the truce in the legislation for 1 October 2008. Iraq quickly came under strain. At time of writ- Options ing, heavy fighting was taking place in Basra Expected Council Action Formal Council action is unlikely. between the Mahdi army and the Iraqi In April the Council is expecting a report on forces—supported by air strikes by British the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI). Key Issues forces—after the Iraqi authorities in Basra Several key issues may be addressed: Staffan de Mistura, the Secretary-General’s imposed a new curfew to reestablish law n The status of Kirkuk: The referendum Special Representative, is likely to brief the and order. British forces had returned on whether the Kirkuk governorate should Council in a public session. The US is also control of Basra to the Iraqis in December. be incorporated into the Kurdistan region likely to brief the Council on the Multi- was postponed until June. This issue is National Force in Iraq (MNF-I). A debate will The Iraqi Red Crescent said on 6 January crucial because of oil reserves in the area follow these briefings, involving participa- that 46,000 Iraqi refugees returned home and the diverse ethnic composition tion by Iraq and most Council members. from Syria between September and Decem- (many communities in Kirkuk expelled ber 2007. However, there are reports that Key Recent Developments from the region under Saddam Hussein the number of refugees is still in excess of 2 On 15 March, UNAMI issued a human rights have returned). Article 140 of the Iraqi million. The UN High Commissioner for report covering 1 July to 31 December constitution calls for the return of refu- Refugees has decided to strengthen its 2007. It noted a marked decrease in violent gees, compensation for lost property and presence in Iraq and offered to help the attacks in the last three months of 2007 as a the reversal of border alterations. A cen- Iraqi government assess conditions result of the MNF-I surge, but recognised sus and then a referendum on the region’s required for return. that Iraq still faced real challenges with sec- status were supposed to take place by 31 tarian violence. It welcomed improvements On 12 January, the Iraqi parliament December 2007. However, many uncer- in the handling of detainees by Iraqi and approved the Accountability and Justice tainties about article 140 have not been coalition forces but emphasised that more Law, permitting former Ba’athist officials to resolved, including the determination of efforts were needed in particular regarding hold government jobs again. It was inter- eligible voters, and options for the refer- the detention of suspects for an indefinite preted as a positive development toward endum. Some Council members may be period without charge. reconciliation, but some criticised the law interested in UNAMI’s strategy to assist in for not being comprehensive and for failing the preparation of this referendum. De Mistura last briefed the Council on 21 to provide Ba’athists with access to evi- n Constitutional review process: The January. He said priority areas for UNAMI dence used in barring them from state Constitutional Review Committee included assisting the Iraqi government in employment or pension rights. requested a six-month extension of the

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 19 process beyond the previous deadline of Council Dynamics Other Relevant Facts 31 December. Among the contentious In the January debate, many Council mem- issues are the power of the presidency, bers reaffirmed their support for UNAMI’s Special Representative of the Secretary-General competencies of governorates and contacts with political forces in Iraq, and regions versus the centre and the institu- members supported an increased UN role Staffan de Mistura (Sweden) tional framework for allocation of oil and in political reconciliation, subject to security Deputy Special Representative for gas revenues. The role of UNAMI’s Office constraints. Political Affairs of Constitutional Support, in particular Michael von der Schulenburg (Germany) the development of constitutionally man- Some (Russia and Panama in particular) Deputy Special Representative for dated legislation, may be an issue of have expressed concerns about the Awak- ening Councils (coalitions among Sunni Humanitarian, Reconstruction and interest to Council members. Development Affairs tribal leaders to ensure security, which n Provincial elections: Whether the gov- David Shearer (New Zealand) ernorates law will be amended and started in the Anbar province and have now approved by the Presidential Council become a wider force in the country). These Secretary-General’s Special Advisor on the International Compact with Iraq so elections can take place in October is concerns seem to be about a lack of super- an issue. A related concern is the role vision of non-governmental militias. Ibrahim Gambari (Nigeria) of the Independent High Electoral Indonesia has also raised concern about Useful Additional Sources Commission in preparing for those elec- the necessity to prepare the Iraqi forces to n What is the real death toll in Iraq? Jona- tions—issues of transparency remain be ready to substitute for the MNF-I if it is than Steele and Suzanne Goldenberg, — and UNAMI’s assistance. Also, power withdrawn. Libya is concerned that the The Guardian, 19 March 2008 struggles at the provincial level have pre- underlying problem is essentially due to the http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/ vented the appointment of local election presence of foreign forces which it believes mar/19/iraq commissions; this will require a signifi- encourages violence. It has expressed con- n Debating Devolution in Iraq, Reidar cant UN organisation effort within a very cern that meaningful political dialogue Visser, Middle East Report Online, 10 tight timetable. among Iraqis is not possible at this time. March 2008 n Political reconciliation: This remains a Underlying Problems http://www.merip.org/mero/mero major issue and many Council members The ongoing impact on civilians who have 031008.html will be looking for information in this lost their lives either as a result of military n The Future of Kirkuk: The Referendum regard. A related issue is the work of the operations or from the resulting sectarian and its Potential Impact on Displacement, three committees (on energy, border violence is a major underlying concern for Elizabeth Ferris and Kimberly Stoltz, The issues and security) involving Iraq’s neigh- many Council members. Precise numbers Brookings Institution – University of Bern, boring countries. A meeting is scheduled are very hard to determine and estimates 3 March 2008 in Kuwait in April and a key issue will be the vary considerably. The website Iraq Body http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2008/ implementation of a UN proposal to estab- Count estimates that between 80,000 and 0303_iraq_ferris.aspx lish a permanent mechanism for expanded 90,000 civilians have died since the March n Iraq: Fix Flaws in Reconciliation Law, neighbours’ cooperation. Again some 2003 invasion. US researchers from Johns Human Rights Watch, 21 February 2008 Council members may be looking for Hopkins University estimate that 600,000 http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/02/21/ updates in this area. people died between 2003 and 2006 as a iraq18125.htm n Humanitarian situation: According to direct result of the conflict. The World Health n The Law on the Powers of Governorates the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Organisation published a study estimating Not Organised in a Region: Washington’s in December there were 4.4 million dis- the number to be around 151,000 between ‘Moderate’ Allies Show Some Not-So- placed Iraqis, with 2.5 million inside Iraq 2003 and 2006. Moderate Tendencies, Reidar Visser, and about 1.9 million in neighboring Historiae.org, 11 February 2008 countries. UN Documents www.historiae.org n Human Rights: The recent UNAMI Selected Security Council Resolutions n Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge, human rights report may also be International Crisis Group, Middle East addressed by some Council members. • S/RES/1790 (18 December 2007) renewed the mandate of the MNF-I for Report N°72, 7 February 2008 Another issue is progress of negotiations one year, with a review by 15 June. http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index. between the US and the Iraqi government • S/RES/1770 (10 August 2007) cfm?id=5286 on a long-term US military presence in Iraq, renewed UNAMI for one year and to be concluded in July. US officials said in revised its mandate. February that in case of failure to reach Latest UNAMI Report agreement, the Iraqi government would • S/2008/19 (14 January 2008) seek another renewal of the MNF-I mandate by the Council in December. (Please see Records of the last Security Council our January 2008 Forecast for further briefing and debate on Iraq background on this issue.) • S/PV.5823 (21 January 2008)

20 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Lebanon The report on the implementation of resolu- tion 1701 published on 28 February also Expected Council Action indicated that the Lebanon Independent SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT In April the Council will discuss a report Border Assessment Team (LIBAT) would be Monthly from the UN International Independent dispatched to Lebanon again soon. It noted Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) on the a lack of progress on the provision by Israel APR 2008FORECAST murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister of data for clearing cluster munitions, the Rafik Hariri. The report is expected on 27 exchange of prisoners and the delineation be that UNIIIC will continue to be cautious March. (The UNIIIC mandate expires in of the Syrian-Lebanese border, in particular about revealing much information preferring June.) The UNIIIC Commissioner and future in the Sheb’a Farms area. to leave it to the prosecutor to publicly reveal Prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Leba- outcomes in indictments. Lebanese presidential elections were non, Daniel Bellemare, is likely to brief to delayed on 11 March to 25 March, and A major issue with significant bearing on all Council on progress of the investigation. again, for the seventeenth time, to 22 April. of the problems in Lebanon on the Coun- Also, the Council will have before it a report Despite an agreement on a presidential can- cil’s agenda is whether the Arab League under resolution 1559 which in 2004 called didate and unanimous support for the Arab summit scheduled for 29-30 March in for the disarming of militias in Lebanon and League mediation, Lebanese factions failed Damascus will make progress towards free and fair presidential elections. Terje to agree on the composition of the future resolving the Lebanese political crisis. The Røed-Larsen, the Secretary-General’s Spe- government and on a new electoral law. Lebanese government decided on 25 cial Envoy for the implementation of March to boycott in protest against Syrian In late February, the US confirmed that a resolution 1559, will likely brief the Council. support for the opposition political factions guided-missile destroyer, the USS Cole, in Lebanon. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have Key Recent Developments was patrolling close to (but outside) Leba- also decided to reduce the level of their On 12 March, the Secretary-General pub- nese territorial waters. This was strongly presence at the summit. This signals ten- lished a report on the establishment of the criticised by Syria and by Hezbollah as mili- sions within the Arab League on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that confirmed tary interference. Lebanese issue. If the summit makes no that the preparatory phase was almost Options progress on Lebanon, an issue will be completed. It noted that consultations were whether the Council should again take up Options for the Council on the tribunal and underway regarding transferring the investi- the wider underlying issues. the UNIIIC reports are to: gation from UNIIIC to the prosecutor, n take no action and await developments; indicating that a declaration that the tribunal Regarding the 1559 report, issues likely to or is “operational” may be expected soon. The come up include: n adopt a statement welcoming the steps Council addressed this report in consulta- n whether there are new allegations or evi- taken by the Secretary-General and tions on 27 March and adopted a press dence of weapons transfers across the encouraging transfer of the investiga- statement (SC/9287) taking note of the sub- Syrian-Lebanese border; and tion to the tribunal before UNIIIC’s stantial progress that has been made. n whether there have been new reports of mandate expires. sustained military activities by militias (in On 10 March, the Council held consulta- October the Lebanese government Regarding implementation of resolution tions on the implementation of resolution expressed concerns at the establishment 1559 options include: 1701, which in 2006 called for a cessation of of military bases close to the Syrian bor- n a statement expressing concern at the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah der by the PFLP-General Command and presidential vacuum and urging the and authorised a reinforcement of the UN Fatah al-Intifada receiving weapons from Lebanese factions to find a solution; and Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Under Syria, although Syria has strongly n expressing concern at reports of militias Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. rejected those assertions). rearming contrary to the disarmament Lynn Pascoe and Assistant Secretary-Gen- objectives of resolution 1559. eral for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Council Dynamics Mulet briefed on developments. It seems Key Issues During the last consultations on resolution 1701, the US and some European mem- that they attributed current difficulties in The timing of the transition from UNIIIC to bers emphasised concern about arms implementing resolution 1701 to the ongo- the tribunal is a key issue. The Council will transfers, cluster munitions, and the lack of ing domestic political crisis in Lebanon. be looking to hear Bellemare’s position on progress on prisoners. The Europeans Recent belligerent statements from Hezbol- this issue. lah were mentioned along with its possible expressed concern about Israeli overflights, rearmament with weapons smuggled from A related issue is how much progress UNIIIC and the US about the role of Iran and Syria Syria. Other issues raised included the has made in identifying possible suspects in in relation to alleged breaches of the arms deadlocked situation in Ghajar (where Israel the Hariri murder and other bombings in embargo. Indonesia, Libya, Russia and continues to occupy the northern part of the Lebanon and links between them. (The tri- South Africa pointed out that there was no village in contradiction of resolution 1701), bunal will be competent to judge suspects evidence of arms smuggling. Russia criti- incidents near the Blue Line between Leba- involved in other cases of assassinations cised the US decision to send a warship non and Israel, and ongoing Israeli violations based on the existence of such links.) It may close to Lebanon. It seems that there was a of Lebanese airspace.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 21 common concern at Hezbollah’s provoca- over all Lebanese territory and free and Nepal tive statements, along with the need to fair presidential elections. address the situation in Ghajar and to try to Expected Council Action Latest Presidential Statement get to the bottom of allegations regarding The Council is expected to consider the arms transfers. Council members appar- • S/PRST/2007/46 (11 December 2007) report on the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) ently supported the Secretary-General’s expressed “deep concern at the in April. (The report is likely to focus on the plan to send another LIBAT mission as well repeated postponements of the results of the constituent assembly elec- as the Arab League mediation. presidential election in Lebanon.” tions scheduled for 10 April and to discuss Latest Secretary-General’s Reports the activities of UNMIN following the elec- The consensus on the necessity to tions.) A Council statement following the implement resolution 1701 is undermined • S/2008/173 (12 March 2008) was the elections in April is possible, but decisions somewhat by divisions on priorities and a latest report on the tribunal on the future of UNMIN seem likely to be wide scepticism that in the absence of prog- • S/2008/135 (28 February 2008) was postponed until the government in Kath- ress on the domestic political front there is the latest report on resolution 1701. mandu has had an opportunity to take a little hope of progress on the 1701 process. • S/2007/684 (28 November 2007) was consensual decision. (At press time, there was no agreement on the latest UNIIIC report. a Council response to the 1701 report.) The • S/2007/629 (24 October 2007) was the On 23 January, the Council extended divisions on priorities will likely make dis- latest report on resolution 1559. UNMIN’s mandate for six months until 23 cussions on the 1559 report also difficult. In Selected Letters July at the request of Nepal’s government. particular, any attempt to increase pressure • S/2008/164 (6 March 2008) was on Syria or to criticise breaches of the arms Key Recent Developments Syria’s position paper on the 1701 At press time, the Secretariat was scheduled embargo will likely meet resistance (by report. Libya, South Africa, Russia and perhaps to brief the Council on 27 March on develop- • S/2008/155 (4 March 2008) was a ments leading up to the April elections. Burkina Faso). As to the political crisis in letter from Lebanon detailing Israeli Lebanon, some think that the Council violations of Lebanon’s territorial On 22 March, UNMIN together with the should address this issue. However, others integrity in February. Office of the High Commissioner for believe that it should remain a Lebanese • S/2008/102 (15 February 2008) was Human Rights (OHCHR) in Nepal released internal issue. Lebanon’s position paper on the the first of a series of election reports warn- On the issue of the tribunal, some members 1701 report. ing that continuing violence in the Terai region and clashes between party sup- (China and Libya in particular) fear that in Latest Press Statement porters could undermine the polls. Among the current environment the process is • SC/9287 (27 March 2008) welcomed the recommendations are that armed becoming politicised. They prefer therefore the latest report on the tribunal. that discussions on the investigation and groups seek political accommodation through dialogue and parties abide strictly the tribunal should be conducted sepa- Other Relevant Facts rately from other issues. In addition, by the election code of conduct and stop UNIIIC Commissioner and Future some—including China, Indonesia and intimidating voters. The report also said Prosecutor of the Special Tribunal Russia—are seeking clear information that the Communist Party of Nepal must about the progress of the investigation Daniel Bellemare (Canada) stop preventing parties from campaigning before it is transferred to the tribunal. A dis- Special Tribunal’s Registrar in areas where it is strong. pute about the renewal of the UNIIIC Robin Vincent (UK) On 12 March, Ian Martin, the Secretary- mandate could be brewing. Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for General’s Special Representative in Nepal, Implementation of Resolution 1559 said at a press briefing in Kathmandu that UN Documents Terje Røed-Larsen (Norway) the constituent assembly elections were on Selected Resolutions track and UNMIN was helping to ensure Secretary-General’s Special Coordinator that all parties could campaign freely. • S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) estab- for Lebanon lished the Special Tribunal under To be appointed The security situation remains fragile. In Chapter VII and requested a report January, student activists staged a two-day within 90 days and then regularly. Useful Additional Source protest against a rise in fuel prices, which • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called n The New Middle East, Marina Ottaway, led the Nepal Oil Corporation to withdraw for a cessation of hostilities between Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, Karim the increase. In February, a 16-day strike Israel and Hezbollah and authorised a Sadjadpour, Paul Salem, Carnegie called by Madhesi groups in the Terai region reinforcement of UNIFIL. Endowment for International Peace, demanding more rights led to a blockade of • S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged February 2008 Kathmandu and the stoppage of oil deliver- withdrawal of all foreign forces from http://www.carnegieendowment.org/ ies. The strike ended on 28 February after Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id= the government signed an accord giving and non-Lebanese militias, extension 19928 greater representation to minorities in state of the Lebanese government’s control and local authorities. It also agreed to

22 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org autonomous regions for the Madhesi under themselves during the second phase of a future federal democratic structure. verification or were under 18 years and UNMIN expressed deep concern over the recruited after the ceasefire. There is no SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT killing of a candidate from the Terai region plan for how to deal with them now that they Monthly for the constituent assembly elections. It are discharged. Related to this are issues said that violence and threats against can- concerning the merging of the Nepal Army APR 2008FORECAST didates were a “serious obstacle to the and the People’s Liberation Army. creation of a free and fair elections atmo- early February that India could help check Of direct concern to the Council is the issue sphere for the election.” the Terai groups led to an official complaint of UNMIN’s role after the elections and to the UN from the Indian government. India In mid-March, tensions in Tibet spread to whether it will be able to fulfil its mandate by has also been concerned that some state- Nepal as Tibetan exiles demonstrated in July or whether a longer presence will be ments by the Secretary-General’s Special front of the UN offices and the Chinese needed. In this regard, the views of the Representative in Nepal could be perceived embassy in Nepal. There have been reports Nepal government will be critical, and expe- as exceeding UNMIN’s mandate. of arbitrary arrests and use of force against rience in other situations suggests that in the demonstrators. the immediate post-election period govern- UN Documents ments take some time to reach conclusions On 17 March, armed groups from Nepal’s Security Council Resolution on such matters. Terai region demanded greater autonomy • S/RES/1796 (23 January 2008) and threatened to disrupt the April elec- Options extended UNMIN until 23 July 2008. tions. They called for a general strike from The Council has the following options: • S/RES/1740 (23 January 2007) 28-30 March and then again from 7 April to n discuss the outcome of the elections and established UNMIN for 12 months. the day of the election, 10 April. UNMIN observations but take no action; Secretary General’s Reports n adopt a Council statement on the The UN Electoral Expert Monitoring Team • S/2008/5 (3 January 2008) was the elections; (EEMT) made its fourth visit to Nepal from last report of the Secretary-General on n begin discussions about a possible new 3-17 March. The EEMT was established on the request of Nepal for UN assistance mandate for UNMIN (this is likely if there 23 January 2007 under resolution 1740, in support of its peace process. is a prompt request from Kathmandu that which also established UNMIN. The EEMT UNMIN should stay beyond the elec- Presidential Statements is responsible for monitoring the constitu- tions); and • S/PRST/2006/49 (1 December 2006) ent assembly electoral process to ensure a n request the Secretary-General to provide expressed support for the Secretary- result that accurately reflects the will of the a drawdown timetable for UNMIN ahead General’s intention to send a technical Nepalese people. At the end of its two-week of the 23 July end of mandate (this is only assessment team to Nepal and noted visit in March, the EEMT said that while likely if it seems that UNMIN’s mandate that the Council would await formal there were improvements in security, sched- will end in July). proposals. uling and inclusiveness, there was a risk that resurgent violence could undermine a Council and Wider Dynamics Latest Press Statement free and fair poll. Council members are united in wanting to • SC/9288 (27 March 2008) welcomed see free and fair elections for the constituent progress towards constituent assem- Key Issues assembly in April. However, there are more bly elections in Nepal. A key issue is the prospect of disruption divergent views on whether and what role and violence before, during and after the UNMIN should play following the elections. Other Relevant Facts elections and whether there is anything the Council can do that could help achieve an China has been cautious about any signs of Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission optimistic outcome. UNMIN moving beyond its original man- date. It has been constant in its position that Ian Martin (UK) A connected issue is whether the govern- any extension of or changes to UNMIN’s Size and Composition ment can effectively address the concerns mandate must be in line with what Nepal’s of traditionally marginalised groups ahead 871 staff (208 international staff, 126 UN government wishes. of the elections and whether key players will volunteers, 387 national staff, 144 arms cooperate so that free and fair constituent Some other members, like the UK, feel that monitors and six police advisers as of elections take place. there will be a need for UNMIN to stay on in end of January 2008) some format but want to be sure that any Duration Also of concern is the fragility of the seven- new mandate will allow it to achieve 23 January 2007 to 23 July 2008 party alliance. Unity of this alliance is its objectives. essential for stability following the elections. Cost India has continued to be actively engaged. $88.8 million Now that the UN verification of arms and However, relations between UNMIN and armed personnel is complete, there is a India were somewhat strained in recent Useful Additional Source question over former combatants who were months. A comment by the then-UN Devel- n UNMIN Election Report, No. 1, 22 March disqualified from the benefits of the pro- opment Fund resident representative in 2008, http://www.unmin.org.np/ gramme either because they did not present

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 23 Western Sahara reluctant to engage in interactive discus- Morocco’s authorities continued to harass sions, despite their previous agreement to human rights defenders and Sahrawi activ- Expected Council Action move the process into a more intensive and ists in the Western Sahara. Repression of The Council will discuss the Secretary- substantive phase of negotiations. public protests, it says, was fiercer in West- General’s report on the UN Mission for the ern Sahara than elsewhere in the kingdom. One problem seems to be that Morocco Referendum in Western Sahara (MIN- The 2007 Western Sahara country report on still refuses to even discuss one of the URSO) in April and developments at the human rights published in March 2008 by proposals on the table, which includes most recent talks between Morocco and the US Department of State also noted that independence as an option. In response the Frente Polisario. Peter van Walsum, political rights for residents in Western the Polisario refuses to discuss autonomy the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy Sahara remained circumscribed. It added as the sole option. After the talks, the for Western Sahara, is expected to brief that “international human rights groups and Moroccan delegation made a statement the Council and provide an assessment of Sahrawi activists maintained that the Moroc- about its territorial integrity, and said that the negotiations and perhaps recommen- can government subjected Sahrawis who the choice was not between autonomy dations. The Council is likely to extend the were suspected of supporting either West- and independence but between autonomy mandate of MINUSRO which expires on ern Saharan independence or the Polisario and status quo. The Moroccan Minister of 30 April. to various forms of surveillance, arbitrary Foreign Affairs Taieb Fassi Fihri, a mem- arrest, prolonged detention, and in many ber of the delegation that attended the Key Recent Developments cases, torture.” On 17 and 18 March, Morocco and the Manhasset talks, stated at a press confer- Polisario held the fourth round of talks in ence that Morocco was ready to engage Options Manhasset in search of a mutually accept- in substantial discussions about the The Council is likely to adopt a resolution. It able solution to the situation in Western autonomy plan only. The delegation also has the following options: Sahara. Representatives of the neighbour- attacked attempts by the Polisario to raise n renew MINURSO for less than six-months, ing countries, Algeria and Mauritania, were human rights issues. and signal that the presence of MINURSO present at the opening and closing ses- is seriously linked to progress in the Van Walsum visited the region ahead of the sions and were consulted separately during negotiations; talks and held in-depth consultations with the meeting. Peter van Walsum facilitated n expand the MINURSO mandate to the parties. He met the Polisario Secretary- the discussions. include a human rights element; General Mohamed Abdelaziz and other n choose either the Moroccan plan or the members of the Polisario leadership on 9 According to a communiqué issued by van Polisario plan and require the parties to February. He also met senior Moroccan offi- Walsum with the agreement of the parties, use that as a basis for negotiations. (This cials in Rabat. Van Walsum said that he was the talks focused on implementation of would be a clear departure from previous in the region to listen to the views of both the Council resolutions 1754 and 1783. In 2007, resolutions which have treated the two parties and the neighbouring states, Algeria these resolutions called on the parties to plans more or less neutrally, although the and Mauritania, on how to move into more negotiate without precondition and in good Moroccan efforts were defined as “seri- substantial negotiations and provide for the faith, taking into account developments ous and credible”); since 2006 with a view to achieving a just, self-determination for the people of Western n demand that the parties engage without Sahara. He also held discussions with lasting and mutually acceptable political preconditions in discussions of both officials in Algiers and Nouakchott. solution, which would provide for self-deter- plans; mination by the people of Western Sahara On 25 January, the Secretary-General’s n decide that the two plans should be put consistent with the UN Charter. The talks report on the third round of negotiations to a binding referendum (This was the focused mainly on administration, justice (which took place from 7 to 9 January) said initial rationale for the establishment of and resources issues. However, the parties that the parties remained far apart and that MINURSO); agreed to explore establishing family visits “there was hardly any exchange that could n call on the parties to further engage on between the refugee camps in Algeria and be characterized as negotiations.” confidence-building measures; and the Moroccan-controlled territory of West- n simply renew the MINURSO mandate for ern Sahara by land—in addition to the On 4 February, the Council held consulta- six months and reaffirm language con- current visits by air—and to continue the tions and adopted a press statement tained in resolution 1783 and call upon talks at a later date. Morocco seemed to supporting van Walsum’s plan to tour the the parties to engage in substantive relax to a small degree its previous insis- region ahead of the March round of talks negotiations. tence that the talks focus on the political and welcoming the parties’ agreement to process and not discuss the expansion of move the process into a more substantial Another option would be for the Council to confidence-building measures. phase of negotiations. (It seems that the clarify language contained in previous reso- optimism in that statement may have been lutions, in particular specifying who the Overall it seems that there was very little misplaced when set alongside the March parties are (as Morocco claims that the progress on the political issues since the outcome described above.) Polisario is not the sole representative of the last round. Again the parties made state- Sahrawi population), or emphasising the ments of their respective positions on Human Rights Watch reported in January necessity for both parties to engage on thematic issues and it seems they remained 2008 in its annual World Report that each other’s plan and show flexibility, as the

24 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Secretary-General had recommended in During the 4 February consultations, South his last report. Africa emphasised the need for self-deter- mination and called on the parties to Key Issues SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT engage more in discussions on confi- The main issue at this stage is whether the Monthly dence-building measures. It also reiterated Council should explore options to pressure its concern for the absence of discussions APR 2008 the parties to engage in substantive discus- FORECAST on human rights. sions, or uphold the approach in resolutions Secretary-General’s Latest Report 1754 and 1783 which was based on not try- During the same consultations, it seems ing to impose any solution but simply that Croatia and Panama strongly empha- • S/2008/45 (25 January 2008) facilitating agreement by both parties, and sised the need for self-determination. Costa Latest Press Statement to this end give more time to the parties. A Rica also insisted that MINURSO should be • SC/9241 (4 February 2008) possible instrument of pressure which had given a human rights mandate (Panama Other been considered in the past by the US— seems to hold this view as well), but also although never formally proposed in the believes that in the absence of progress, • A communiqué (18 March 2008) Council—is linking the extension of MIN- the Council should explore an exit strategy was issued by van Walsum with the URSO’s mandate to progress in the for MINURSO. Many have also emphasised agreement of the parties after the negotiations, threatening to withdraw it the need for progress on the confidence- fourth round of talks. completely. But the Secretary-General has building measures. warned against that—especially in the con- Other Relevant Facts Underlying Problems text of increasing calls within the Polisario to Special Representative of the Tensions between Morocco and the Polisa- take up arms again. Secretary-General rio are likely to grow if the possibility of Julian Harston (UK) A separate issue is whether to expand the renewed conflict continues. Both sides MINURSO mandate to include human rights have recently accused each other of con- Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy elements. An increasing number of Council ducting unusual military manoeuvres, and it Peter van Walsum (Netherlands) members appear to consider this an impor- seems that voices are being raised within MINURSO Force Commander tant issue. the Polisario for renewing the fight. This Major General Zhao Jingmin (China) may have prompted Algerian president Council and Wider Dynamics Abdelaziz Bouteflika in March to encourage Size and Composition of Mission Some members, including South Africa, negotiations by saying that the parties had • Authorised strength: 231 military continue to be critical of the Group of not yet exhausted all possibilities offered by personnel and six police officers Friends (comprising France, Russia, Spain, negotiations. And on 19 March the Spokes- • Strength (as of 31 January 2008): 222 the UK and the US) due to its lack of inclu- person of the Algerian Ministry of Foreign total uniformed personnel, including siveness and apparent unwillingness to Affairs reiterated Algeria’s attachment to a 27 troops, 6 police officers, 189 military engage in substantial discussions with the peaceful solution. observers; supported by 96 interna- rest of the Council. The US has the lead in tional civilian personnel, 148 local the Council. Family visits by land have so far been civilian staff and 23 UN volunteers impossible to organise, although they France, and possibly also the US, may be would be cheaper and would allow more Troop Contributing Countries inclined to try to tilt language in the resolu- people to be transported, because the land Argentina, Austria, Bangladesh, Brazil, tion in favour of the Morocco plan. Both border between Algeria and Morocco is China, Croatia, Djibouti, Egypt, El Salva- France and the US have recognised the closed. There would need to be a new dor, France, Ghana, Greece, Guinea, Moroccan autonomy plan as a serious and agreement between Morocco, Algeria and Honduras, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, credible effort, expressed their support for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Malaysia, Mongolia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Morocco’s efforts to help resolve this issue for land visits to take place. Poland, Russian Federation, Sri Lanka, and believe this plan to be a good realistic Uruguay and Yemen starting point that could lead to a settlement UN Documents of this conflict. But others within the Group Cost (approved budget) Selected Resolutions of Friends remain strongly opposed to this 1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008: $47.64 and the existence of these divisions is again • S/RES/1783 (31 October 2007) called million (A/C.5/62/23) likely to influence any outcome to reflect the upon the parties to continue negotia- lowest common denominator—the need tions taking into account the efforts Useful Additional Sources for the parties to continue the negotiations made since 2006, requested the n Statement by Mahfoud Ali Beiba, Head of and to engage on the substance, support Secretary-General to report on these the Polisario delegation at the opening for previous resolutions and for the efforts of talks by 31 January, and extended session of the fourth round of negotia- van Walsum. MINURSO’s mandate for six months. tions in Manhasset, 17 March 2008 • S/RES/1754 (30 April 2007) called for http://www.arso.org/AliBeibaManhasse South Africa remains concerned about the negotiations without preconditions 170308.htm reluctance of Morocco to seriously engage. and extended MINURSO’s mandate n Statement by Chakib Benmoussa, for six months. Moroccan Interior Minister, on behalf of

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 25 the Moroccan delegation at the opening first significant US cultural visit. However, http://www.armscontrol.org/ session of the fourth round of negotia- subsequent routine military exercises pdf/20070817_IAEArepDPRK.pdf tions in Manhasset, 17 March 2008 (in between South Korea and the US drew • Briefing to the Security Council by the French only) sharp criticism from Pyongyang. Chair of the Sanctions Committee, http://www.maec.gov.ma/en/default.html Options Ambassador Marcello Spatafora, 10 n Western Sahara–2007 Country Report on The Council could: July 2007 http://www.un.org/sc/com- Human Rights Practices, Bureau of n receive the briefing and take no action; mittees/1718/selc_docs.shtml Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, n adopt a press statement, perhaps wel- US Department of State, March 2008 coming the recent bilateral meeting in http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2007/ Geneva but stressing that substantive 102555.htm progress needs to be made; and Liberia n request recommendations from the The Council in April is expected to consider Committee on future options for its work. the Secretary-General’s report on the UN DPRK (North Korea) Key Issues Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), which was sub- Expected Council Action The key issue is whether Council members mitted to the Council on 20 March. Our The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea see that they have a relevant role in helping March 2008 Forecast Report previewed the is expected to be on the Council’s work to move the six-party talks forward. A related issues likely to arise, the options for the programme in April. The Chairman of the issue is whether signalling a possible review Council and the relevant political dynamics Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Mar- of sanctions may be a helpful incentive. in the Council. Resolution 1777 of 20 cello Spatafora of Italy, will provide a briefing September 2007 requested the Secretary- during Council consultations on the issue. Council Dynamics General to report on plans to draw down the The Committee has been largely inactive Council members are not particularly numbers of peacekeepers. The key issues since early 2007 after deciding to await the focused on this issue. For some time for the Council involve ensuring a success- outcome of the six-party talks on the DPRK’s there has been little appetite for a more ful drawdown of UNMIL and effective peace nuclear programme. The briefing is unlikely active role. consolidation. A recent major cocaine sei- to contain any new information leading to zure (mirroring other incidents in West UN Documents Council action. However, the scheduled Africa) highlights concerns about the pos- briefing may provide an opportunity for Selected Security Council Resolutions sibility of Liberia becoming a major transit point for drug trafficking to Europe. Council members to take stock of the wider • S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) political situation. A press statement on expressed grave concern over the progress in the six-party talks is possible. nuclear test by North Korea, imposed sanctions and set up the Sanctions Key Recent Developments Sierra Leone Committee. The six-party talks among China, Japan, • S/RES/1695 (15 July 2006) In late April, the Council is expected to Russia, the US, DPRK (North Korea) and condemned North Korea’s launch of receive the Secretary-General’s report con- the Republic of Korea (South Korea) faltered ballistic missiles. taining additional ideas on the drawdown at the end of 2007 when the DPRK failed to of the UN Integrated Office in Sierra Leone Selected Presidential Statement submit a full declaration about its nuclear (UNIOSIL) as well as the mandate, structure programme as it had agreed. The meeting • S/PRST/2006/41 (6 October 2006) was and strength of an envisaged follow-on between the chief US and North Korean the statement expressing concern integrated political office. (The Secretary- negotiators on 13 March in Geneva raised over North Korea’s declaration that it General had, on 31 January, submitted to hopes for a breakthrough. However, it would conduct a nuclear test. the Council a completion strategy for UNIO- seems that little progress was made. Selected Letter SIL and told the Council he would also In exchange for closing down its Yongbyon • S/2007/778 (31 December 2007) update them with the upcoming report.) On nuclear reactor in July and providing a full contained the Sanctions Committee’s 28 February, the Council requested that he accounting of its nuclear programme, DPRK activities for the year 2007. include further information on the draw- down of UNIOSIL between local elections was to receive 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil Other and 500,000 tons of fuel-oil equivalents. scheduled for 5 July and the completion of • Letters submitted from UN member Pyongyang says it received 200,000 tons of the mission in September, as well as pro- states on implementing resolution fuel oil and “very little” of the fuel-oil equiva posals on the mandate, structure and - 1718 http://www.un.org/sc/committees/ lents. It seems the balance is being withheld strength of the replacement integrated 1718/mstatesreports.shtml political office. pending delivery of the declaration. • IAEA report of 17 August 2007 At press time, it was unclear whether the The New York Philharmonic orchestra (GOV/2007/45-GC(51)/19) verifying the Sierra Leone report will be taken up during visited Pyongyang in February. Some con- shut-down of the Yongbyon reactor April or in May during the presidency of the sidered it a small breakthrough—it was the UK, the lead country on this issue.

26 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Counter-Terrorism: Review The Committee is supported by a group of of the 1540 Committee eight experts who evaluate the level of implementation of the resolution by each SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Expected Council Action state. It has developed a tailored approach Monthly The mandates of both the 1540 Committee that considers risk factors and each state’s on terrorism and weapons of mass destruc- capacity. Legislative suggestions and APR 2008FORECAST tion (WMDs) and its Group of Experts expire operational best practices have been on 27 April. A biennial report of the Com- developed by the Committee to assist its has concluded that for full implementation mittee is also due in April. All indications outreach and dialogue with states. Mem- of resolution 1540, it is important for many are that both mandates will be renewed ber states needing this assistance have states to receive relevant assistance. when the issue comes before the Council been informed of available assistance from Ambassador Burian suggested in Decem- in April. other members, as well as international ber 2007 that future outreach activities and regional organisations. should focus more on assisting states with Resolutions 1540 and 1673 issues of implementation. On 27 April 2006, the Council adopted reso- Key Issues lution 1673, which called on all states to fully While the response to resolution 1540 has Council Dynamics implement the provisions of resolution 1540 been generally good, a key issue is that There is general unanimity in the Council on of 28 April 2004. Resolution 1540 requires many countries still have a long way to go to the future course of the 1540 Committee. that all states: achieve full implementation of the resolu- Some, including permanent members, n refrain from supporting non-state actors tion. As of 17 December, 45 countries had express strong support for the Committee’s in obtaining access to weapons of mass not yet reported to the Committee and their work and its continuation beyond the April destruction and their delivery systems; progress therefore cannot be properly eval- 2008 expiration of its current mandate. Most n adopt laws prohibiting access by non- uated. A related issue was identified by the have welcomed the work the Committee state actors to such weapons and their former Chairman of the 1540 Committee, has done in areas of facilitating assistance precursors; and Ambassador Peter Burian of Slovakia, and conducting outreach to states, includ- n establish domestic controls to prevent during his briefing to the Council on 17 ing helping them find ways in which they proliferation of such weapons and their December 2007. He pointed out that, while can report on implementation and support delivery systems as well as controls over the experts are making progress in engag- continuation of this work. related materials. ing these states, the complexity of the UN Documents provisions of the resolution and the lack of (For more information please see Security capacity in many states to respond to the Security Council Resolutions Council Report’s April 2006 Forecast multiplicity of reporting requirements by the • S/RES/1673 (27 April 2006) extended Report.) The 2006 resolution also broad- UN may be causes of delays in reporting. the mandates of the Committee and ened the scope of the 1540 Committee’s the experts until 27 April 2008. mandate to engage in outreach, dialogue, The Committee’s second biennial report to • S/RES/1540 (28 April 2004) established assistance and cooperation. the Council, due by 27 April, will therefore the measures to prevent proliferation of not be a complete picture of the status of WMDs and their delivery systems and 1540 Committee implementation of the resolution because the monitoring committee. The Committee established by the resolu- it does not yet have input from a number tion consists of all members of the Council of states. Presidential Statement and is currently chaired by Ambassador • S/PRST/2007/4 (23 February 2007) Jorge Urbina of Costa Rica. It is required to A second key issue is whether the Com- affirmed resolutions 1540 and 1673. compile information on each state’s level of mittee dialogue and outreach activities implementation of the resolution. The Com- (including seminars and workshops Selected Security Council Meeting Records mittee was asked to explore options for with states, sub-regional, regional and sharing of experience and lessons learned international organisations) have now • S/PV.5806 (17 December 2007) was and the availability of assistance pro- achieved broad acceptance of the the last open debate in which the grammes to help states to implement the requirements of resolution 1540. It seems chairmen of subsidiary bodies briefed resolution. In a presidential statement on 23 that much of the scepticism which marked the Security Council. February 2007, the Council supported the adoption of resolution 1540 back in increased multilateral cooperation as an 2004 has dissipated. Other Relevant Fact important means of enhancing states’ Chair of the Terrorism/Weapons of Mass A related issue is whether the Committee’s implementation of the resolution. It reiter- Destruction Committee (1540) approach to facilitation of assistance is ated its determination to enhance the role of widely welcomed and whether assistance is Jorge Urbina (Costa Rica) international, regional and sub-regional actually reaching those who most need it. organisations, including in providing assis- Useful Additional Source (The fact that 45 countries have not yet been tance to states. Website of the 1540 Committee http://www. able to report to the Committee raises some un.org/sc/1540/ questions in this regard.) The Committee

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 27 Notable Dates for April Important Dates over the Reports Due for Consideration in April Document Requesting Report Horizon

20 March SG report on UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) S/RES/1777 n A referendum on a new constitution in 27 March SG report on UN International Independent S/RES/1748 Myanmar has been scheduled for May. Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) (Lebanon) n Parliamentary elections are planned for late March SG monthly report on the AU-UN Hybrid S/RES/1769 11 May in Serbia. Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) late March SG report on UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) S/RES/1244 n Local government elections are sched- late March/early April SG report on options and recommendations S/2008/145 uled for June in Sierra Leone. for UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea n A Council visiting mission is being con- 1 April SG semi-annual report on UN Stabilization S/RES/1780 sidered. Options include Central Africa, Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) the Horn of Africa, DRC, Côte d’Ivoire early April SG quarterly report on the UN Mission in the S/RES/1778 and Haiti. Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT) n A meeting of the International Compact early April SG report on UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) S/RES/1781 early April SG report on UN Integrated Office in Sierra S/RES/1793 for Iraq is planned for June in Europe, Leone (UNIOSIL) (every four months) S/2008/137 possibly in Stockholm. early April SG quarterly report on UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) S/RES/1784 n An international conference to review early April SG report on regional and sub-regional S/PRST/2007/7 progress on implementation of the organizations Afghan Compact is scheduled for June 15 April SG report on electoral process in Côte d’Ivoire S/RES/1795 in Paris. 15 April Côte d’Ivoire Group of Experts mid-term report S/RES/1782 n A meeting of states to consider the imple- to the Sanctions Committee mid-April Somalia sanctions Monitoring Group’s report S/RES/1766 mentation of the Programme of Action to mid-April SG quarterly report on UN Assistance Mission S/RES/1770 Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit for Iraq (UNAMI) Trade in small arms and Light Weapons mid-April SG report on UN Mission for the Referendum S/RES/1783 in all its Aspects is planned for 14-18 July in Western Sahara (MINURSO) 2008 in New York. 19 April SG semi-annual report on the implementation S/RES/1559 n Presidential elections in Côte d’Ivoire are of resolution 1559 (Lebanon) now expected by the end of June 2008. late April SG quarterly report on UN Mission in Ethiopia S/RES/1320 and Eritrea (UNMEE) late April SG report on UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) S/RES/1796 SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT STAFF April SG biennial report on small arms S/PRST/2007/24 Colin Keating, Executive Director April 1540 Committee biennial report S/RES/1673 Joanna Weschler, Director of Research April 2008 Mandates Expire Relevant Document Curtis A. Ward, Senior Research Consultant Robert Afriyie, Research Analyst 15 April UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) S/RES/1781 Anne-Gaëlle Claude, Research Analyst 27 April 1540 Committee and its Group of Experts S/RES/1673 Fernanda Rafaela Fernandes, Research Analyst 30 April UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara S/RES/1783 Shamala Kandiah, Research Analyst (MINURSO) Amanda Roberts, Programme Coordinator 30 April Somalia sanctions Monitoring Group S/RES/1766 Paul Romita, Programme Consultant 30 April UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) S/RES/1784 Brian Lockstone, Communications Consultant Robbin VanNewkirk, Administrative Assistant April 2008 Other Important Dates 2-4 April A NATO summit meeting is scheduled in Bucharest, Romania to assess Security Council Report is published with the situation in Afghanistan and Kosovo. the support of the Governments of Canada, 10 April Constituent assembly elections in Nepal, delayed twice from Greece, Liechtenstein and Norway, The 22 November and 20 June, have been scheduled for this date. Rockefeller Foundation, the John D. and mid-April A Council briefing on the Multi-National Force in Iraq (MNF-I) is likely. Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. It is 15-30 April A census is scheduled in Sudan. incorporated as a not for profit Organisa- 16 April Council members have invited the AU Peace and Security Council to a tion and operates in affiliation with the joint meeting in New York on this date. Center on International Organization in the 17 April The Council is expected to hold an open debate on UN cooperation School of International and Public Affairs with regional organisations and conflict prevention. at Columbia University in New York. 25-26 April An international donor’s conference for Haiti is scheduled in Port-au-Prince. Also expected in April: • A UN team is expected to go to Cyprus from 30 March to 2 April to assess prospects for the Secretary-General’s good offices. • The Human Rights Council will hold the first session of the Universal Periodic Review from 7 to 18 April. • A Council debate on small arms is expected.

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28 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org