Indonesia Initiating Coverage 3 October 2019 Transportation | Airline Garuda Indonesia (GIAA IJ) Buy Flying High; Initiate At BUY Target Price (Return) IDR750 (+51%) Price: IDR498 Market Cap: USD0.91bn 14.3bn/1.0m Avg Daily Turnover (IDR/USD) Initiating coverage with a BUY on recent constructive structural Analysts changes, with a 12-month TP of IDR750, derived from a 10-year DCF (WACC: 9.3%, terminal growth: 4%), 51% upside. Post multiple accidents, the Jessica Pratiwi Government has raised the price floor for commercial airfare to 35% of the +6221 5093 9845 price ceiling, and mandated regular maintenance, which should benefit GMFI,
[email protected] GIAA’s subsidiary. A higher ASP and fuel management through capacity adjustments have resulted in much higher profitability – 7M19 NPAT reached management’s FY target. It is trading at an attractive 8.1x 2020F P/E. Michael W Setjoadi Variable price floor to preserve profitable margins. The higher ticket price +6221 5093 9844 floor regulation has increased the industry’s profitability, including Garuda
[email protected] Indonesia’s low-cost carrier (LCC) – Citilink from a USD11.7m loss in 1H18 to USD27.7m profit in 1H19 (contributing to 49% of 1H19 total EBIT). Regulators will review the price floor every three months, or whenever there is a spike in Marco Antonius production cost of >10%. We believe this is more proactive than the previous +6221 5093 9849 regulation that reviewed the price floor on an annual basis.
[email protected] Rising passenger yield on price competition. Following the higher price Share Performance (%) floor, GIAA has adjusted its prices by +25% for Garuda Indonesia, and +40% for Citilink, resulting in much higher passenger yield of US cents 10.9/km YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m (+38.9% YoY) and US cents 7.98/km (+57% YoY) as at 8M19.