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December 14, 2015 December 14, 2015 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) CJ O Shopping (035760/Buy/TP: W254,000) KOSPI 1,927.82 -20.80 -1.07 Earnings matter more than valuation KOSPI 200 238.17 -2.18 -0.91 KOSDAQ 630.37 -23.11 -3.54 Cheil Worldwide (030000/Buy/TP: W30,000) Acquisition of Samsung Lions baseball team Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 425,668 4,022 Sector News & Analysis KOSPI 200 66,404 2,706 Shipbuilding (Overweight) KOSDAQ 620,532 2,869 2016 Outlook Report Market Cap (Wbn) Value Consumer Discretionary (Overweight) KOSPI 1,221,052 2016 Outlook Report KOSDAQ 182,879 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Healthcare (Overweight) Buy Sell Net Healthcare Weekly Briefing Foreign 943 1,240 -296 Institutional 957 612 344 Economy & Strategy Update Retail 2,000 2,147 -147 Fixed Income Weekly KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Bond market uncertainties to decrease after FOMC meeting Foreign 167 174 -7 Institutional 115 112 3 Retail 2,584 2,577 7 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,029 941 88 KOSDAQ 108 78 30 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 150 697 32 KOSDAQ 131 964 27 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,261,000 -23,000 282 KODEX LEVERAGE 9,500 -160 169 Hanmi Pharm 635,000 -25,000 134 KODEX INVERSE 8,405 60 130 KODEX 200 23,895 -205 126 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value NTPIA 2,630 605 113 AHNLAB 54,400 6,250 93 WSA 2,620 195 78 Komipharm 35,600 -3,650 71 Timo Technology 4,000 -165 68 Note: As of December 14, 2015 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. CJ O Shopping (035760 KQ) Earnings matter more than valuation Retail Valuation has little significance at this point Two things need to be considered when investing in CJ O Shopping (CJOS) : valuation Company Update and earnings trajectory. From a valuation perspective, CJOS has become very attractive. December 14, 2015 Currently valued at W1.1tr, the company looks extremely cheap, given the W1tr in proceeds expected from the CJ HelloVision sale. But at this point, we believe increasing valuation appeal will only serve as a floor for the stock price. In our view, what matters (Maintain) Buy more than valuation is a turnaround in earnings. Given weaker-than-anticipated revenue growth, we expect any meaningful turnaround Target Price (12M, W) 254,000 in earnings and shares to come after 1Q16. Due to portfolio restructuring, not only are gross merchandise sales (GMS) in the TV channel declining, but mobile GMS growth is Share Price (12/11/15, W) 183,600 also slowing down. Expected Return 38% Earnings to remain weak until 1Q15, but full-year earnings to pick up in 2016 For 4Q15, we forecast non-consolidated GMS to remain flat YoY at W847.1bn and OP (15F, Wbn) 110 operating profit to decline 8.6% YoY to W33.2bn. For most of the year, profits have Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 112 sharply declined on a combination of falling GMS and rising SG&A expenses (i.e., higher transmission fees and marketing spend). In 4Q15, however, the fall in GMS shou ld slow, EPS Growth (15F, %) -25.1 leading to a more moderate decline in profits. Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 22.5 P/E (15F, x) 15.1 Looking ahead to 2016, we estimate non-consolidated GMS and operating profit to Market P/E (15F, x) 11.2 expand 4.0% and 6.9% YoY to W3.25tr and W117.2bn, respectively. TV GMS should rise KOSDAQ 653.48 0.6% YoY, but mobile GMS should increase 20.4% YoY , driving overall GMS growth. On the expense side, we expect the SG&A ratio to modestly decline on the back of a slower Market Cap (Wbn) 1,140 increase in system operator transmission fees, the dissipation of herbal supplement Shares Outstanding (mn) 6 refund expenses, and a deceleration in promotional expenses. Free Float (%) 56.6 Foreign Ownership (%) 21.3 Looking at quarterly earnings, we see a slight decline in 1Q16, a strong pickup in 2Q16 Beta (12M) 0.11 amid an improved business environment, and modest growth in 3Q-4Q16. 52-Week Low 175,200 52-Week High 272,700 Maintain Buy and TP of W254,000 (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M We view the CJ HelloVision sale as positive, given the overall cable market environment Absolute -2.8 -15.0 -28.6 (slowing growth and declining transmission income) and the price of the deal (which is Relative -0.7 -6.7 -41.3 more than double the book value of CJOS’s stake). CJ Group’s decision to drop out of the Coway bidding is also good news. However, we believe CJOS’s cash assets should be 160 CJ O Shopping KOSDAQ priced at a discount until the company can come up with an efficient way to use its 140 excess cash. We retain our Buy call and target price of W254,000, which reflects the 120 sum of 1) the value of earnings (non-consolidated), 2) the value of the Dongfang CJ 100 stake, and 3) the value of cash holdings and investment securities. 80 60 12.14 4.15 8.15 12.15 Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 1,077 1,261 1,277 1,141 1,182 1,235 [Retail] OP (Wbn) 139 157 142 110 116 131 Aiden Lee OP margin (%) 12.9 12.5 11.1 9.6 9.8 10.6 +822-768-3297 NP (Wbn) 123 108 100 75 291 107 [email protected] EPS (W) 19,768 17,458 16,186 12,121 46,805 17,254 ROE (%) 30.1 20.9 16.7 11.3 35.1 10.6 P/E (x) 14.0 23.8 16.1 15.1 3.9 10.6 P/B (x) 3.6 4.4 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, includi ng the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Cheil Worldwide (030000 KS/Buy) Acquisition of Samsung Lions baseball team Media Cheil Worldwide announced it will buy a 64.5% stake in the Samsung Lions on January 1st , 2016 Issue Comment The move is part of the company’s efforts to expand its sports business and boost December 14, 2015 domestic revenue growth Parent revenue to increase in 2016 on the back of sports club operations and Olympic- related marketing activities Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. [Telecom Service / Media] Cheil Worldwide to expand sports business and push up domestic revenue Jee-hyun Moon Cheil Worldwide announced it will acquire a 64.5% stake in the Samsung Lions baseball team +822-768-3615 on January 1 st , 2016. The baseball team is a corporation, unlike other sports clubs under the [email protected] Samsung Group umbrella. Cheil Worldwide plans to purchase stakes from Samsung Electronics (SEC), Samsung SDI, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO), and Samsung C&T for W675mn, which should boost its stake in the Samsung Lions to 67.5%. Samsung Lions (fiscal year end of November 30 th ) posted revenue of W51.1bn and a net loss of W17.1bn in 2014, but turned to profit this year with revenue of W58bn and a net profit of W25.6bn (preliminary basis). This year’s earnings improvement was partly due to one-off gains from the sale of property to Samsung Life for W16.2bn in February. Looking ahead, the baseball team is expected to maintain breakeven-level earnings. Cheil Worldwide’s decision to buy the Samsung Lions seems motivated by the firm’s intent to expand its sports business and boost domestic revenue growth. The decision does not come as a surprise, given that Jae-yeol Kim was appointed head of the company’s sports division last year. Since his appointment, Jae-yeol Kim has put major sports clubs under the umbrella of Cheil Worldwide, including the Suwon Samsung Bluewings (football), Seoul Samsung Thunders (basketball), Yongin Samsung Life Blue Minx (women’s basketball), and Daejeon Samsung Bluefangs (volleyball). Cheil Worldwide’s domestic top-line growth has stagnated since 2014, when parent-based revenue fell to W871bn (vs.
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