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Samsung C&T Corporation (028260 KS ) Stable in -house earnings and value of affiliate stakes to trigger re -rating Initiate coverage with Buy and TP of W180,000 Initiation Report We initiate our coverage on Samsung C&T Corporation (Samsung C&T) with a Buy rating and target price of W180,000 (32% upside potential). We derived our target price January 30, 2018 using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology, reflecting the value of in-house businesses (based on 2018F estimates) and the value of affiliate equity stakes. We estimate in-house businesses represent 20% of Samsung C&T’s enterprise value, and affiliate stakes make up the remaining 80%, including 35% for Samsung (Initiate) Buy Electronics (SEC) shares and 25% for Samsung BioLogics shares. In our view, the share price of Samsung C&T, the de facto holding company of Samsung Group, is more Target Price (12M, W) 180,000 closely tied to changes in the value of its affiliate stakes. Share Price (01/26/18, W) 136,500 Stabilizing earnings and value of affiliate stakes to trigger re-rating Samsung C&T’s businesses (consolidated) can be divided into: 1) engineering & Expected Return 32% construction (E&C); 2) trading & investment (T&I); 3) fashion; 4) leisure; 5) F&B; and 6) biologics. The company derives the bulk of its revenue from E&C and T&I , which contribute 43% and 40%, respectively, to overall revenue. While other businesses, OP (17F, Wbn) 858 account for only a small portion of revenue, they provide a buffer against the earnings Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 850 volatility caused by the sharp cyclical swings in construction and trading. 1) 2018 forecasts: Revenue of W30.32tr (+2.8% YoY) and OP of W935.8bn (+9.1% YoY) EPS Growth (17F, %) 517.0 Following the E&C business’s return to operating profit in 2Q16, Samsung C&T’s in- Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 45.5 house earnings have been improving overall, backed by: 1) visible progress on high- P/E (17F, x) 36.4 tech and housing projects and SG&A expense improvements in construction; 2) Market P/E (17F, x) 10.5 continued earnings stability in T&I; and 3) portfolio adjustments in fashion. KOSPI 2,574.76 2) Affiliate stakes valued at W37.5tr, up 70.9% from end-2015 Market Cap (Wbn) 25,893 Samsung C&T’s net asset value (NAV) has continued to grow, driven by the increasing value of holdings in core affiliates, including SEC (4.6% stake currently valued at Shares Outstanding (mn) 191 W15.2tr, vs. W7.5tr at end-2015), Samsung BioLogics (W12tr currently, vs. W5tr at end- Free Float (%) 45.7 2015), and Samsung Life (19.3% stake currently valued at W5tr, vs. W4.3tr at end-2015). Foreign Ownership (%) 9.9 The company’s market cap, however, has fallen to W25.9tr, down 2.5% from W26.6tr at Beta (12M) 1.58 end-2015. We believe the stock has given up its entire premium related to expectations 52-Week Low 119,500 for ownership restructuring and is now reflecting only the values of its in-house 52-Week High 149,500 businesses and affiliate stakes. Looking ahead, we expect the stock to re-rate higher, fueled by the resumption of group restructuring and aggressive shareholder returns . (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 11.9 -1.8 7.9 Key issues related to Samsung Group’s ownership restructuring Relative 5.5 -7.1 -12.7 1) Samsung C&T’s role within Samsung Group: Samsung C&T’s stakes in SEC and 130 Samsung C&T Corporation Samsung Life make it the group’s de facto holding company. KOSPI 120 2) New circular shareholdings: Samsung SDI will likely have to sell 2.1% of Samsung C&T within six months of notification by the Fair Trade Commission (FTC). 110 3) Litigation regarding merger: We see a low probability of the merger being nullified. 100 4) Samsung Life’s disposal of SEC shares: Regulatory issues should force Samsung Life 90 to sell some of its SEC shares, which will likely be directly purchased by Samsung C&T. 80 1.17 5.17 9.17 1.18 5) Samsung C&T’s shareholder return policy: The company has raised its dividend per share (DPS) and could potentially consider retiring treasury shares. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. 6) Potential collection of royalties: Samsung C&T could begin collecting brand royalties once the current trademark arrangement between affiliates is dissolved. [ Holding Companies/IT Services ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Dae -ro Jeong Revenue (Wbn) 5,130 13,345 28,103 29,507 30,324 30,938 +822 -3774 -1634 OP (Wbn) 213 37 140 858 936 945 [email protected] OP margin (%) 4.2 0.3 0.5 2.9 3.1 3.1 Su Yeon Lee NP (Wbn) 456 2,747 107 662 782 855 +822 -3774 -7162 EPS (W) 3,632 17,857 561 3,462 4,087 4,471 [email protected] ROE (%) 9.9 25.2 0.6 3.2 3.4 3.6 P/E (x) 43.5 7.8 223.6 36.4 33.4 30.5 P/B (x) 3.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates January 30, 2018 Samsung C&T Corporation Investment summary Stabilizing earnings and value of affiliate stakes to trigger re-rating 1) 2018 forecasts: Revenue of W30.32tr (+2.8% YoY) and OP of W935.8bn (+9.1% YoY) Following the construction business’s return to operating profit in 2Q16, Samsung C&T’s in- house earnings have been improving overall, backed by: 1) visible progress on high-tech and housing projects and SG&A expense improvements in construction; 2) continued earnings stability in trading; and 3) portfolio adjustments in fashion. 2) Affiliate stakes valued at W37.5tr, up 70.9% from end-2015 Samsung C&T’s NAV has continued to grow, driven by the increasing value of its holdings in core affiliates, including SEC (4.6% stake currently valued at W15.2tr, vs. W7.5tr at end-2015), Samsung BioLogics (43.4% stake currently valued at W12tr, vs. W5tr at end-2015), and Samsung Life (19.3% stake currently valued at W5tr, vs. W4.3tr at end-2015). The company’s market cap, however, has actually fallen to W25.9tr, down 2.5% from W26.6tr at end-2015. We believe the stock has given up its entire premium related to expectations for ownership restructuring and now reflects only the value of its in-house businesses and affiliate stakes. Looking ahead, we expect the stock to re-rate higher, fueled by the resumption of group ownership restructuring and aggressive shareholder returns. Figure 1. Total asset value trend: Value of stakes in key Figure 2. Discount to NAV at record-high level affiliates (Wtr) (%) 50 Samsung C&T operating value 50 SEC Samsung BioLogics 40 40 4.4 Samsung Life 30 Value of other investment assets 4.8 20 30 3.6 10.7 5.2 10 4.4 20 4.3 4.3 0 5.0 15.2 -10 10.8 10 7.5 -20 5.8 6.2 7.6 0 -30 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 2015 2016 2017F Source Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. Estimated changes in per-share value, assuming Figure 3. DPS trend and outlook cancellation of treasury shares (13%) (W) (%) (W) BPS (W) 2,500 DPS (L) 2.5 200,000 +7.1% 5,000 EPS +16.0 Dividend yield (R) 4,000 2,000 2.0 150,000 3,000 1,500 1.5 100,000 2,000 1,000 1.0 50,000 1,000 500 0.5 0 0 Before소각 share 전 After 소각 share 후 Before소각 share 전 After 소각share 후 0 0.0 retirement retirement retirement retirement 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Source Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 30, 2018 Samsung C&T Corporation I. Valuation and TP calculation Initiate coverage with Buy and TP of W180,000 We initiate our coverage on Samsung C&T with a Buy rating and target price of W180,000 (32% upside potential). We derived our target price using a SOTP methodology, reflecting the value of in-house businesses (based on 2018F estimates) and the value of affiliate equity stakes. We estimate in-house businesses represent 20% of Samsung C&T’s enterprise value, with affiliate stakes making up the remaining 80%, including 35% for SEC shares and 25% for Samsung BioLogics shares. In our view, the share price of Samsung C&T, the de facto holding company of Samsung Group, is more closely tied to changes in the value of its affiliate stakes. When making investment decisions regarding the firm, we thus recommend first factoring in changes in the value of its affiliate stakes, and then considering actual earnings and growth potential of key in-house operations. Table 1. Target price calculation (Wbn) 2017F 2018F Details Operating value ①①① 7,591 7,926 E&C 1,971 2,041 3.9x 2017-18F EV/EBITDA F&B 1,344 1,418 8.5x 2017-18F EV/EBITDA Leisure 2,464 2,529 15.1x 2017-18F EV/EBITDA Fashion 250 357 6.8x 2017-18F EV/EBITDA T&I 1,563 1,582 8.5x 2017-18F EV/EBITDA Investment value ②②② 35,142 37,513 Listed subsidiaries 33,524 35,896 Based on market value Unlisted subsidiaries 1,618 1,618 Based on book value Total asset value ①①① + ②②② 42,733 45,439 Net debt 3,509 3,509 As of end-3Q17 Treasury stock 3,304 3,580 13.8% of shares issued NAV 42,529 45,510 Market cap 23,901 25,893 Common shares Discount to NAV (%) 43.8 43.1 No.
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