[Korea] Retail
Shinsegae Buy (004170 KS) (Maintain)
Additional negatives to be limited TP: W290,000 ▼ Upside: 31.5%
Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Myoungjoo Kim [email protected] Minjeong Kyeong [email protected]
2Q20 review Operating loss due to COVID-19 For 2Q20, Shinsegae reported consolidated revenue of W1.01tr (-32.6% YoY) and an operating loss of W43.1bn (turning to loss YoY). For department stores (non-consolidated), operating profit plunged 56.3% YoY to W14.3bn. The duty-free division posted an operating loss of W37bn (turning to loss YoY). The results missed our estimates and the consensus, hurt by: 1) sluggish department store earnings due to sales mix deterioration; and 2) continued weakness at the duty-free division. In the department store division, the apparel/accessories segments have been slow to recover due to the rapid shift to online shopping amid the lingering impact of COVID-19.
Additional negatives to be 2Q20 marked a bottom limited The pandemic weighed on all of Shinsegae’s businesses in 1H20, not just the department store and duty-free divisions. That said, we believe additional negatives are limited. Monthly same-store sales growth at department stores has recovered swiftly (to approximately 9% currently). Considering additional rent cuts for the Terminal 1 airport location (i.e., the temporary introduction of variable rent payments linked to sales), we expect the duty-free division to improve meaningfully in line with the recovery of revenue.
Valuation and recommendation Lower TP to W290,000 (from W360,000) We revised down our 2021 EPS estimate by 5.1%, reflecting the decline in the value of Shinsegae’s stakes in subsidiaries (e.g., Shinsegae International [031430 KS/CP: W158,000]). Valuation looks undemanding. The stock is trading at a 2021F P/E of 8.7x, on par with the level in 2016, when the duty-free business was making losses and the department store business had yet to take off. Despite our target price cut, we reiterate our Buy rating, in light of: 1) the anticipated easing of pandemic concerns; and 2) stable and solid top-line growth at department stores.
Key data Current price (8/12/20, W) 220,500 Market cap (Wbn) 2,171 160 Shinsegae KOSPI OP (20F, Wbn) 149 Shares outstanding (mn) 10 140 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 218 Free float (%) 71.3 120
100 EPS growth (20F, %) - Foreign ownership (%) 29.2
80 P/E (20F, x) - Beta (12M) 0.95
60 Market P/E (20F, x) 17.2 52-week low (W) 204,000 8.19 12.19 4.20 8.20 KOSPI 2,432.35 52-week high (W) 324,000
Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Absolute 6.3 -26.5 -4.1 Revenue (Wbn) 2,947 3,871 5,186 6,394 4,918 6,379 Relative -6.1 -32.4 -23.4 OP (Wbn) 251 346 397 468 149 474 OP margin (%) 8.5 8.9 7.7 7.3 3.0 7.4 NP (Wbn) 227 182 239 526 -35 249 EPS (W) 23,071 18,513 24,274 53,472 -3,581 25,258 ROE (%) 7.3 5.5 6.9 14.2 -0.9 6.2 P/E (x) 7.6 16.2 10.5 5.4 - 8.7 P/B (x) 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 13, 2020 Shinsegae
Table 1. 2Q20 review (Wbn, %, %p) 2Q20 Growth
2Q19 1Q20 Mirae Asset Actual Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 1,506 1,197 1,014 1,148 1,198 -32.6 -15.2 OP 68 3 -43 15 14 TTR TTR OP margin (%) 4.5 0.3 -4 1 1 -8.8 -4.5 NP 17 -2 -112 -13 -8 TTR RR Note: NP is attributable to owners of the parent. Source: DataGuide; company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %, %p) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Revenue 5,595 6,447 4,918 6,379 -12.1 -1.1 Reflected 2Q20 results OP 286 497 149 474 -48.1 -4.6 OP margin (%) 5.1 7.3 3.0 7.4 -2.1 0.1 NP 110 258 -35 249 TTR -5.1 Note: NP is attributable to owners of the parent. Source: DataGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Table 3. Earnings and forecasts (consolidated) (Wbn) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20F 4Q20F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Gross revenue 2,004 2,020 2,177 2,510 2,305 2,293 2,385 2,687 1,845 1,732 2,069 2,427 8,710 9,671 8,073 9,897 Net revenue 1,095 1,183 1,366 1,541 1,517 1,506 1,603 1,769 1,197 1,014 1,256 1,451 5,186 6,394 4,918 6,379 Shinsegae 426 414 432 468 375 367 385 430 331 354 383 450 1,739 1,558 1,518 1,634 Shinsegae International 304 283 312 364 366 302 360 397 323 287 380 434 1,263 1,425 1425 1,568 Central City 45 47 57 71 66 67 71 68 56 53 61 67 220 272 236 295 Shinsegae Duty Free 340 445 579 645 703 770 787 868 489 311 416 475 2,009 3,128 1,691 2,800 Shinsegae Dongdaegu 42 40 43 49 46 45 47 54 33 39 49 58 174 191 180 213 Other -61 -46 -80 -82 -38-1 -25 -9 -69 -68 -68 -68 -270 -73-274 -272 Gross profit 631 657 753 892 796 783 797 892 611 539 653 764 2,933 3,268 2570 3211 OP 113 80 70 134 110 68 95.9 194 3 -43 44 145 397 468 149 474 Shinsegae 59 42 47 94 53 33 50.6 85 23 14 46 91 242 222 174 215 Shinsegae International 12 14 11 18 29 15 19.0 22 12 -3 15 20 56 85 44 89 Central City 16 5 17 26 21 10 23.6 19 12 -3 9 14 64 74 32 92 Shinsegae Duty Free 24 23 -3.2 -5.3 13 17 10.7 71 -32 -37 -25 16 39 112 -78 79 Shinsegae Dongdaegu 2 -1 2 7 5 2 5 10 -3 -1 7 13 10 21 16 37 Other 0 -4 -4 -1 -10-5 -8 -5 -5 -11 -7 -7 -9 -28-29 -27 Pretax profit 106 66 55 128 893 33 82 -211 4 -135 8 96 355 798 -27 332 NP 76 50 29 85 667 17 34 -191 -2 -112 6 72 239 526 -35 249 YoY growth (%) Gross revenue 13.2 18.8 20.0 20.5 15.0 13.5 9.6 7.1 -20.0 -24.5 -13.2 -9.7 18.2 11.0 -16.5 22.6 Net revenue 19.5 34.9 38.7 41.0 38.5 27.3 17.3 14.8 -21.1 -32.6 -21.6 -18.0 33.9 23.3 -23.1 29.7 Gross profit 12.3 22.0 34.4 36.9 26.1 19.2 5.9 0.1 -23.2 -31.2 -18.1 -14.4 26.8 11.4 -21.4 24.9 OP 45.9 93.1 -5.5 -12.0 -3.2 -14.7 36.6 44.8 -97.0 TTR -54.6 -25.3 14.9 17.9 -68.2 218.1 NP 203.9 4.6 -27.5 20.8 779.4 -66.0 17.8 TTR TTR TTR -81.3 TTB TTB 121.9 TTR TTB Notes: NP is attributable to owners of the parent.; a non-operating loss of W779bn related to the fair value recognition of SSG.com holdings was recorded in 1Q19. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 13, 2020 Shinsegae
Table 4. TP calculation (Wbn, x, %)
1) Operating value 3,140 Target multiple of 11.4x (equivalent to the P/E in 2014, when there were Department store value 1,839 no new store openings and the duty-free business had yet to be launched); based on 2021F NOPLAT Target multiple of 22x (equivalent to the P/E in 2019) to reflect our Duty-free business value 1,301 assumption of duty-free market normalization; based on 2021F NOPLAT 2) Value of investment assets 2,544 Shinsegae Int’l 362 30% discount to market value (Aug. 12, 2020) x stake Samsung Life 183 30% discount to market value (Aug. 12, 2020) x stake Gwangju Shinsegae 17 30% discount to market value (Aug. 12, 2020) x stake Central City 922 30% discount to net asset value (1Q20) x stake 30% discount to 2021F revenue x P/S (1x for direct sourcing; 5x for SSG.com 583 platform-related revenue) x stake Other affiliates 476 30% discount to 1Q20 book value 3) Net debt 2,866 Consolidated (1Q20) Fair market cap 2,818 No. of shares outstanding (‘000) 9,836 TP 290,000 Current price 220,500 As of Aug. 12, 2020 Upside (%) 32% Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
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Shinsegae (004170 KS)
Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 5,186 6,394 4,918 6,379 Current assets 1,837 1,831 1,942 2,039 Cost of revenue 2,292 3,126 2,348 3,168 Cash & equivalents 352 178 585 333 Gross profit 2,894 3,268 2,570 3,211 AR & other receivables 427 436 358 450 SG&A expenses 2,497 2,800 2,421 2,736 Inventory 916 1,077 884 1,112 OP (adj.) 397 468 149 474 Other current assets 142 140 115 144 OP 397 468 149474 Non-current assets 9,264 11,187 11,091 11,379 Non-operating profit -42 330 -176 -142 Investments in associates 322 1,097 1,305 1,642 Net financial income -73 -127 -192 -216 PP&E 6,801 6,481 6,414 6,347 Net income from associates 20 1 8 6 Intangible assets 425 352 336 320 Pretax profit 355 798 -27 332 Total assets 11,101 13,018 13,033 13,418 Income tax 70 205 0 83 Current liabilities 3,245 3,173 3,906 4,336 Profit from continuing operations 285 593 -27 249 AP & other payables 549 585 480 603 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 1,318 1,294 1,946 1,871 NP 285 593 -27249 Other current liabilities 1,378 1,294 1,480 1,862 Attributable to owners 239 526 -35 249 Non-current liabilities 2,854 4,330 3,632 3,358 Attributable to minority interests 46 67 9 0 Long-term financial liabilities 1,964 3,262 2,755 2,255 Total comprehensive income 121 553 -131 249 Other non-current liabilities 890 1,068 877 1,103 Attributable to owners 77 488 -135 256 Total liabilities 6,099 7,503 7,538 7,694 Attributable to minority interests 44 65 4 -7 Equity attributable to owners 3,469 3,926 3,908 4,137 EBITDA 699 1,136 739 990 Capital stock 49 49 49 49 FCF -57 469 254 723 Capital surplus 397 397 397 397 EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 17.8 15.0 15.5 Retained earnings 2,439 2,921 2,866 3,095 OP margin (%) 7.7 7.3 3.0 7.4 Minority interests 1,533 1,589 1,587 1,587 Net margin (%) 4.6 8.2 -0.7 3.9 Shareholders' equity 5,002 5,515 5,495 5,724
Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Operating cash flow 331 790 695 1,157 P/E (x) 10.5 5.4 - 8.7 NP 285 593 -27 249 P/CF (x) 3.4 2.4 2.9 2.6 Non-cash income/expenses 452 571 788 600 P/B (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 Depreciation 280 646 571500 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 7.7 10.67.6 Amortization 22 23 1916 EPS (W) 24,274 53,472 -3,581 25,258 Other 150 -98 19884 CFPS (W) 74,832 118,291 77,303 86,181 Chg. in working capital -281 -195 163 392 BPS (W) 352,730 399,189 397,361 420,621 Chg. in AR & other receivables -66 -31 67 -51 DPS (W) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Chg. in inventory -376 -162 196 -228 Dividend payout ratio (%) 6.9 3.3 -74.0 7.9 Chg. in AP & other payables 158 25 -161 34 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 Income tax -58 -80 -9 -83 Revenue growth (%) 34.0 23.3 -23.1 29.7 Cash flow from investing activities -593 -71 -321 -478 EBITDA growth (%) 13.7 62.5 -34.9 34.0 Chg. in PP&E -364 -283 -403 -433 OP growth (%) 14.7 17.9 -68.2 218.1 Chg. in intangible assets -6 -14 -1 0 EPS growth (%) 31.1 120.3 - - Chg. in financial assets 453 238 38 -45 AR turnover (x) 20.0 25.0 22.3 28.4 Other -676 -12 45 0 Inventory turnover (x) 7.5 6.4 5.0 6.4 Cash flow from financing activities 438 -894 120 -595 AP turnover (x) 19.0 19.9 16.3 21.6 Chg. in financial liabilities 600 1,274 145 -575 ROA (%) 2.7 4.9 -0.2 1.9 Chg. in equity -2 0 0 0 ROE (%) 6.9 14.2 -0.9 6.2 Dividends -34 -37 0 -20 ROIC (%) 4.7 4.4 -0.3 6.9 Other -126 -2,131 -25 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 121.9 136.1 137.2 134.4 Chg. in cash 177 -175 407 -252 Current ratio (%) 56.6 57.7 49.7 47.0 Beginning balance 175 352 178 585 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) 57.7 78.5 74.2 65.4 Ending balance 352 178 585 333 Interest coverage ratio (x) 4.7 3.4 0.8 2.2 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
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Appendix 1
Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history
Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) Shinsegae Shinsegae (004170) 08/13/20 Buy 290,000 500,000 08/11/20 One year 360,000 400,000 08/11/19 Buy 360,000 05/12/19 Buy 410,000 300,000 11/09/18 Buy 360,000 200,000 04/26/18 Buy 470,000 100,000
0 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse
Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 76.22% 11.59% 11.59% 0.60% Investment banking services 75.00% 10.00% 15.00% 0% * Based on recommendations in the last 12 months (as of June 30, 2020)
Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of Shinsegae as an underlying asset; other than this, Mirae Asset Daewoo has no other special interests in the covered companies.
Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.
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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 August 13, 2020 Shinsegae
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