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Morning Focus January 3, 2018 KOREA Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) POSCO (005490/Buy/TP: W450,000) KOSPI 2,479.65 12.16 0.49 Earnings to continue to climb higher KOSPI 200 326.00 1.26 0.39 KOSDAQ 812.45 14.03 1.76 Sector News & Analysis Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Auto (Overweight) KOSPI 230,256 4,601 Auto sales end 2017 on a disappointing note KOSPI 200 70,198 3,653 KOSDAQ 977,967 6,567 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,613,508 KOSDAQ 287,930 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,149 1,019 130 Institutional 937 1,080 -143 Retail 2,448 2,475 -27 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 448 361 87 Institutional 262 355 -93 Retail 5,861 5,840 21 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,051 956 96 KOSDAQ 198 203 -5 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 498 305 76 KOSDAQ 834 337 80 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 2,551,000 3,000 432 KODEX KOSDAQ150 20,440 640 264 LEVERAGE Daum Communications 146,500 9,500 193 SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS 389,500 18,500 156 Hynix 76,600 100 154 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SillaJen 102,500 9,000 670 Diostech 29,250 6,750 356 Celltrion Healthcare 106,700 -1,900 295 Sky Newpharm 7,580 1,340 269 Celltrion 225,900 4,800 261 Note: As of January 2, 2018 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research POSCO (005490 KS) Earnings to continue to climb higher Steel 4Q17 preview: Earnings improvement to continue Earnings Preview For 4Q17, we see POSCO’s non-consolidated operating profit coming in at W853bn January 3, 2018 (+18.1% QoQ, +74.7% YoY). We believe the main driver of earnings growth was higher steel prices. In 4Q17, China’s spot price for hot-rolled coil (HRC), a key benchmark of steel prices, gained 4.5% QoQ and 24.6% YoY to an average of RMB4,153/tonne, while the domestic spot HRC price also rose 5.5% QoQ and 20.5% YoY to W777,000/tonne. (Maintain) Buy Steel price uptrend to continue; 1Q18 to be even better than 4Q17 We expect the uptrend in steel prices to extend into 2018, driven by the continued Target Price(12M, W) 450,000 improvement in China’s supply/demand dynamics (see our November 17th report “Structural changes underway”). Chinese steelmakers’ profit margins have improved Share Price (01/02/18, W) 339,000 for the past couple of years thanks to the government’s supply-side restructuring (closures of outdated and illegal facilities) and demand-boosting policies, but are still Expected Return 33% below the manufacturing sector average. The steel sector’s debt ratio also remains 1.7 times higher than the manufacturing sector average. As such, we think it is likely that the Chinese government will maintain its current policy stance. OP (17F, Wbn) 4,703 Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 4,694 In particular, we could see a steeper-than-expected price rise in 1Q18 as Chinese traders build up inventory amid the government’s winter production restrictions (from EPS Growth (17F, %) 121.6 November 2017 to March 2018). We expect the winter production cuts to affect around Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 46.7 40mn tonnes of steel, equivalent to 12% of China’s total output during the season (see P/E (17F, x) 9.6 our November 21st report “China’s winter production cuts to support robust roll Market P/E (17F, x) 10.0 margins”). KOSPI 2,479.65 Reaffirm Buy and TP of W450,000 Market Cap (Wbn) 29,556 We reaffirm our Buy call and target price of W450,000 on POSCO. We expect the Shares Outstanding (mn) 87 continued uptrend in steel prices to support higher product pricing at the parent level Free Float (%) 78.8 and earnings growth at steel subsidiaries. Non-steel earnings should also improve now Foreign Ownership (%) 56.1 that group restructuring is complete. POSCO’s stock is currently trading at a 12-month Beta (12M) 0.43 forward P/E of 9.1x and P/B of 0.6x, a discount to major competitors such as China’s 52-Week Low 244,000 Baoshan I&S (P/E of 11x and P/B of 1.2x) and Japan’s NSSMC (P/E of 11x and P/B of 52-Week High 347,000 0.8x). (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 3.2 18.1 30.1 Relative 3.0 13.9 6.3 140 POSCO KOSPI 130 120 110 100 90 80 12.16 4.17 8.17 12.17 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Metals & Mining] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 65,098 58,192 53,084 59,571 62,479 64,954 Jaekwang Rhee +822-3774-6022 OP (Wbn) 3,214 2,410 2,844 4,703 5,096 5,226 [email protected] OP margin (%) 4.9 4.1 5.4 7.9 8.2 8.0 NP (Wbn) 626 181 1,363 3,021 3,265 3,356 EPS (W) 7,181 2,072 15,637 34,650 37,449 38,495 ROE (%) 1.5 0.4 3.3 7.0 7.1 6.9 P/E (x) 38.4 80.4 16.5 9.6 9.1 8.8 P/B (x) 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Dividend yield (%) 2.9 4.8 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. January 3, 2018 POSCO Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F Sales 12,461 12,857 12,748 15,017 15,077 14,944 15,036 14,514 53,084 59,682 61,477 POSCO (parent) 5,767 6,010 6,107 6,442 7,067 7,134 7,255 7,603 24,325 29,127 30,680 Subsidiaries 6,694 6,848 6,641 8,576 8,010 7,810 7,781 6,911 28,759 30,555 30,797 Operating profit 660 679 1,034 472 1,365 979 1,126 1,233 2,844 4,772 5,194 POSCO (parent) 582 713 852 488 795 585 722 853 2,635 3,022 3,680 Subsidiaries 78 (34) 182 (16) 570 394 404 381 209 1,750 1,514 Pretax profit 545 268 663 (44) 1,325 773 1,231 1,126 1,433 4,455 4,664 Net profit 360 292 546 166 851 513 869 788 1,363 3,021 3,265 Profitability (%) OP margin 5.3 5.3 8.1 3.1 9.1 6.6 7.5 8.5 5.4 8.0 8.4 POSCO (parent) 10.1 11.9 14.0 7.6 11.3 8.2 9.9 11.2 10.8 10.4 12.0 Subsidiaries 1.2 (0.5) 2.7 (0.2) 7.1 5.0 5.2 5.5 0.7 5.7 4.9 Pretax margin 4.4 2.1 5.2 (0.3) 8.8 5.2 8.2 7.8 2.7 7.5 7.6 Net margin 2.9 2.3 4.3 1.1 5.6 3.4 5.8 5.4 2.6 5.1 5.3 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Key assumptions (Wbn, ‘000 tonnes, W’000/tonne) (Parent) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F Sales (Wbn) 5,767 6,010 6,107 6,442 7,067 7,134 7,255 7,603 24,325 29,127 30,680 Carbon steel 4,561 4,732 4,808 5,074 5,525 5,606 5,796 6,078 19,176 23,047 24,480 STS 816 907 916 933 1,078 1,088 1,057 1,075 3,573 4,323 4,400 Other 389 371 383 434 464 441 402 450 1,577 1,757 1,800 Shipments ('000 tonnes) 8,740 9,005 8,945 9,185 8,722 8,463 8,962 9,000 35,875 35,146 36,000 Carbon steel 8,277 8,492 8,440 8,702 8,239 7,953 8,440 8,500 33,911 33,133 34,000 STS 463 513 505 483 483 509 521 500 1,964 2,013 2,000 ASP (W'000/tonne) 660 667 683 701 810 843 810 845 678 829 852 Carbon steel 551 557 570 583 671 705 687 715 565 696 720 STS 1,764 1,767 1,814 1,931 2,235 2,137 2,028 2,150 1,819 2,148 2,200 Cost per tonne (W'000/tonne) 593 588 587 648 719 774 729 750 605 743 750 OP per tonne (W'000/tonne) 67 79 95 53 91 69 81 95 73 86 102 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 Auto Overweight (Maintain) Auto sales end 2017 on a disappointing note December domestic sales hit by HMC’s production disruptions HMC’s and Kia’s 2017 global wholesales fall 6.5% and 7.8% YoY, respectively Issue Comment Additional headwinds to weigh on 4Q17 earnings January 3, 2018 1.
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