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Automotive Aftermarket INVESTMENT BANKING 247 / 150 / 70 Parts Retailers 0 / 176 / 80 Suppliers Automotive Aftermarket JEFFERIES WEEKLY GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET REPORT April 21, 2017 0 / 112 / 192 General Twelve Month Price Performance Suppliers Parts Retailers & Distributors Retail Service Providers Collision 255 / 204 / 0 Automotive Aftermarket Equity JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index S&P 500 Retail Service Index Returns 150% Providers 1 Week 1 Month 140% S&P 500 0.8% 0.2% 130% 255 / 0 / 0 JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index 3.5% 0.9% 120% 113.2% 112.3% Dealers Suppliers 3.1% 2.0% 110% 106.1% 102.9% 101.6% Parts Retailers & Distributors 4.4% 0.1% 100% 99.8% Retail Service Providers (0.3%) (1.8%) 0 / 176 / 240 90% Collision 2.0% (2.8%) 80% Collision Source: Capital IQ Suppliers: AXTA, CTB, DORM, GT, HZN, MPAA, SMP, SNA, VVV; Parts Retailers & Distributors: AAP, AZO, GPC, LKQ, ORLY, PRTS, SNA, UNS; Retail Service Providers: BYD.UN; 128 / 100 / 162 MNRO, VVV; Collision: BYD.UN, CPRT, FENX, KAR, LKQ AA Index LTM Trading Multiples Suppliers Parts Retailers & Distributors (EV / LTM EBITDA) Retail Service Providers Collision JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index Automotive Aftermarket 16.0x Trading Multiples 15.0x 4/21/2017 1 Year Ago 14.0x 13.5x 13.0x 13.2x JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index 11.5x 12.3x 12.0x 12.0x 11.5x Suppliers 9.6x 9.8x 11.0x Parts Retailers & Distributors 12.0x 13.6x 10.0x 9.6x Retail Service Providers 13.2x 15.0x 9.0x 8.0x Collision 13.5x 13.5x Source: Capital IQ MILES TRAVELED AND AVERAGE GASOLINE PRICE PER GALLON 8.0% $2.90 PerPriceGallon Average Gasoline Year - 6.0% 5.0% $2.70 Over - 4.5% 3.6% $2.50 4.0% 3.0% 2.7% $2.30 2.2% 1.8% Change) 1.6% 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% $2.10 0.7% 0.5% $1.90 0.0% $1.70 (0.2%) Vehicle Miles Traveled (Year VehicleMilesTraveled (2.0%) $1.50 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Source: Miles Traveled – U.S. Department of Transportation Gas Prices – U.S. Energy Information Administration Automotive Aftermarket | April 21, 2017 1 Jefferies.com INVESTMENT BANKING • AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET STOCK PERFORMANCE(1) (2) As of 4/21/2017 15% Slipping S&P 500 Last Leading Week's Return 0.8% U.S. Auto Parts 10% 5% Motorcar Parts Horizon Global Dorman Monro Snap-on Last Month's Last Month's Return Uni-Select Standard Motor S&P 500 Last Month's Return 0.2% Cooper 0% Genuine Parts Copart Axalta KAR Goodyear O'Reilly Boyd LKQ AutoZone Improving Lagging Advance Auto Valvoline (5%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% Last Week's Return Parts Retailers & Distributors Collision Suppliers Retail Service Providers Parts Retailers & Distributors Collision Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Bubble size is reflective of relative market capitalization (2) Excludes Fenix Parts (Last Week’s Return: (6.5%); Last Month’s Return: (35.9%)) Automotive Aftermarket | April 21, 2017 2 Jefferies.com INVESTMENT BANKING • AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET DEALER STOCK PERFORMANCE(1) As of 4/21/2017 15% Slipping S&P 500 Last Leading Week's Return 0.8% 10% Rush Enterprises 5% Lithia Motors Penske Automotive Group Last Month's Return Asbury AutoNation Sonic Automotive 0% S&P 500 Last CarMax Month's Return 0.2% Lagging Improving (5%) Group 1 Automotive (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Last Week's Return Notes: (1) Bubble size is reflective of relative market capitalization CURRENT TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS’ SALES GROWTH 30% 19.3% 18.1% 19.3% 20% 18.1% 17.8% 17.1% 13.7% 12.8% 8.9% 10% 7.9% 7.1% 6.9% 3.3% 3.3% 4.3% 1.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% NA 0% (0.4%) (1.6%) (1.7%) (10%) (7.8%) (11.7%) (20%) Copart, Inc.Copart, ValvolineInc. ValvolineInc. AutoZone, Inc.AutoZone, Uni-Select Inc. Uni-Select Fenix Parts, Parts, FenixInc. LKQ LKQ Corporation LKQ Corporation Snap-on Incorporated Snap-on Snap-on Incorporated Snap-on Dorman Inc. Dorman Products, Genuine Parts Company Parts Genuine Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Parts, Advance Auto O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. O'ReillyAutomotive, Boyd Group Income Fund Boyd Group Income Fund Boyd Group Monro MufflerMonro Brake, Inc. Horizon Global Corporation HorizonGlobal KAR Auction Services, Inc.Services,Auction KAR Axalta Coating Systems Axalta Systems Ltd. Coating U.S. Auto Inc.Auto Network, U.S. Parts Standard Inc. Products, Standard Motor Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. ofAmerica, MotorcarParts Cooper Tire & RubberCompany Tire & Cooper The Goodyear Tire RubberCompany Tire The& Goodyear Suppliers Parts Retailers & Distributors RSP Collision Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Automotive Aftermarket | April 21, 2017 3 Jefferies.com INVESTMENT BANKING • AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SAME STORE SALES GROWTH(1)(2)(3) 15% 10.7% 9.0% 8.8% 8.3% 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 10% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 5.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% Last Updated: 0% (5%) Website: (1.8%) (10%) (2.5%) (15%) (6.9%) Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Parts Retailers & Distributors Retail Service Providers Collision Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Same Store Sales Growth reflective of aftermarket applicable sales (2) See operating results section (further herein) for detailed breakout of Same Store Sales figures (3) Same Store Sales measures revenue growth for stores that have been open for at least one year WORLD VEHICLE MONTHLY SALES BY REGION (Millions) North America Light Vehicles Foreign Light Vehicles 8.26 8.22 7.90 7.84 7.45 7.42 7.00 7.09 7.09 6.71 6.57 6.54 Last Updated: 6.33 6.18 5.58 6.12 6.11 Website: 5.14 5.20 5.73 4.86 4.71 5.69 4.94 1.92 1.86 1.89 1.87 1.86 1.85 2.04 1.77 1.69 1.72 1.40 1.60 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Source: WardsAuto MANHEIM USED VEHICLE INDEX(1) 130.0 125.0 124.1 120.0 115.0 Last Updated: 110.0 Website: 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Manheim Consulting Notes: (1) As of March 2017 Automotive Aftermarket | April 21, 2017 4 Jefferies.com INVESTMENT BANKING • AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET WHAT WE ARE HEARING FROM THE ROAD Genuine Parts Company has entered into an agreement to acquire Merle's Automotive Supply Genuine Parts Company, a distributor of automotive replacement parts, has entered into an agreement to acquire Merle's Automotive Supply, a 14 location automotive parts distributor serving both the commercial and retail markets. Merle’s was founded in 1969 and is based in Tucson, Arizona. Financial terms were not disclosed. RANDYS Worldwide, a portfolio company of Linsalata Capital Partners, has entered into an agreement to acquire Zumbrota Bearing and Gear RANDYS Worldwide, a supplier, manufacturer and distributor of performance and OE replacement driveline parts for domestic cars, SUVs and light-duty pickup trucks and portfolio company of Linsalata Capital Partners, has entered into an agreement to acquire Zumbrota Bearing and Gear, a remanufacturer of transfer cases, differentials, manual transmissions and related component parts. ZBAG, based in Minnesota, ships products nationwide for rebuilding and repair of light- and medium-duty vehicles. Financial terms were not disclosed. Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC ENTERPRISE VALUE / LAST 12 MONTHS’ EBITDA MULTIPLES(1)(2)(3)(4)(5) As of 4/21/2017 Jefferies Automotive Aftermarket Index 12.5x 12.3x 12.0x 11.4x 11.5x 11.5x 11.0x 10.5x 10.0x One Year Ago One Month Ago Current 5-Year Average Retail Service Providers Parts Retailers & Distributors 13.6x 14.0x 16.0x 15.0x 15.0x 13.5x 13.3x 13.0x 14.0x 12.5x 13.2x 11.9x 13.0x 12.0x 11.6x 12.0x 11.5x 11.0x 11.0x 10.5x 10.0x 10.0x One Year Ago One Month Ago Current One Year Ago One Month Ago Current 5-Year Average 5-Year Average Collision Suppliers 13.7x 9.8x 14.0x 13.5x 13.5x 10.0x 9.4x 9.6x 9.5x 13.0x 9.0x 12.0x 8.5x 8.0x 11.0x 7.5x 10.0x 7.0x One Year Ago One Month Ago Current One Year Ago One Month Ago Current 5-Year Average 5-Year Average Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Debt – Cash; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (2) LKQ is included in both Parts Retailers & Distributors and Collision (3) BYD.UN is included in both Retail Service Providers and Collision (4) VVV is included in both Suppliers and Retail Service Providers (5) SNA is included in both Suppliers and Parts Retailers & Distributers Automotive Aftermarket | April 21, 2017 5 Jefferies.com INVESTMENT BANKING • AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET RECENT AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS As of 4/21/2017 Close International / U.S.
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