ISBN 978-86-80420-05-9 Development Potentials Index of Tradable Sectors in Serbia - DPI 2014- Authors: Nemanja Šormaz Center for advanced economic studies Director Danijela Bobić Center for advanced economic studies Program director The Chamber of Commerce and IndustryCCIS of Serbia is independent, modern and responsible non-budget institution, the national association of all Serbian businesses which its tradition, experience, knowledge and expertise put in the best interest of its members and the economy of Serbia. To establish Serbia as a country recognizable by its in- vestment potential, market economy and open borders, a country prepared to be competitively integrated into the European mainstream, represents our fundamental interest. A century and a half long tradition of the chamber system of Serbia and widely spread chamber network and repre- sentative offices abroad are the guarantee for the effective application of all mechanisms of support to the economy and the business community. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia is responsible partner and support to business by representing the interests of members in front of the state authorities and institutions, carrying out the public powers by the issuance of various documents, developing economic cooperation with foreign countries, representation, protection and promotion of interests of Serbian business in the country and abroad, education service, independent proceedings of disputable cases with the Court of Honor and arbitration. Addition to numerous public powers (foreign trade activities, consensual financial restructuring, freight forwarding operations, certification services, solvency certificates) CCIS issues qualified electronic certificates which provide to entrepreneurs secure e-business with less cost, simple procedures and greater efficiency. CCIS is reliable partner to the State in improving the quality of labor and the introduction of a dual system of education, given that business education is an essential condition for increasing the intellectual capital and the profitability of each business entity. The representativeness of CCIS and sectoral associations at the international level is confirmed by membership in many international organizations (ICC, Eurochambres, ASCAME, ABC, BC BSEC, AIC Forum, WFA, GIRP, CoESS, EURA- TEX, IRU, World ATA Carnet Council, FIATA). CEVES is an independent think-and-do-tankCEVES devoted to advancing Serbia’s economic recovery, democratic con- solidation, and convergence with the European Union through evidence-based policy advocacy, and by mobilizing stakeholders and the public to engage in institution-building, and civic or concrete project initiatives. CEVES was founded in 2004 by a group of Serbia’s top-ranked economists. Since then, it set new standards in Serbia for macro- economic and policy analysis with the publication of Quarterly Monitor of Economic Trends and Policies in Serbia, and together with the Economics Faculty of the University of Belgrade, with the founding of the Foundation for the Advancement of Economics (FREN), which has become Serbia’s go-to think-tank for macroeconomic, social inclu- sion and employment research. CEVES is focused on developing areas of research relevant to inclusive and sustainable economic growth filling a key gap in knowledge — such as industrial organization, key sector economics (e.g. agribusiness, energy and knowl- edge economy), and corporate governance. Developed knowledge CEVES uses to promote change in line with Euro- pean standards and values through advocacy, capacity-building and stakeholder mobilization. The mobilization of stakeholders, or the broader public, is an important goal and tool for CEVES. Decentralized market forces anywhere need to be complemented with collective action, be it by the government, or through the self-organization of pro- fessional, business and civil society organizations. To the extent that Serbian government can be spurred into action, CEVES is committed to advocate and partner with it for adoption of such policies, and where it is not, it is committed to building the necessary constituencies for action outside the public sector. However, mobilization is only conceiv- able if a society can be rallied behind positive goals, within the context of a shared vision. Therefore, CEVES devotes its resources to identification of economic & employment growth opportunities, and formulation of national & sec- torial development strategies. 3 Foreword..........................................................................................................................................................................................................Table of Contents 7 Where are we?................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Executive summary....................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 1. Development Potentials......................................................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 What are the development potentials of a sector?............................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Why is it important to observe the development potentials of a sector?.................................................................... 17 1.3 Who is the index intended for and how can it be used?..................................................................................................... 18 1.4 How do we measure the development potentials of a sector?........................................................................................ 20 Component 1: Exhibited Performance...................................................................................................................................... 22 Component 2: Economic Development................................................................................................................................... 26 Component 3: Socio-Economic Priorities................................................................................................................................. 28 2. Development Potentials Index Results............................................................................................................................................. 33 2.1 Serbian Economy Trends................................................................................................................................................................ 35 2.2 Final Ranking of Sectors by Development Potentials.......................................................................................................... 37 2.3 Active and Passive Development Potentials........................................................................................................................... 41 Active Development Potential Sectors..................................................................................................................................... 42 Passive Development Potential Sectors................................................................................................................................... 44 2.4 Development Potential of Branches.......................................................................................................................................... 46 Wood Industry................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Metallurgical Industry..................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Chemical Industry............................................................................................................................................................................ 53 Textile Industry.................................................................................................................................................................................. 57 Transport Equipment...................................................................................................................................................................... 60 Energy................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63 2.5 From Development Potentials and Concentration to Sector Policies............................................................................ 64 2.6 Sector Ranking according to Performance by Individual Index Pillars.......................................................................... 65 General performance........................................................................................................................................................................ 65 Export