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Business Plan for Electric Passenger Rail on the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line

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Business Plan for Electric Passenger Rail on the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line Transit Corridor Alternatives Analysis & Rail Network Integration Study Business Plan for Electric Passenger Rail on the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line DRAFT March 2021 DRAFT TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1-1 2 – Locally Preferred Alternative ......................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Characteristics of Passenger Rail for the SCBRL ............................................................. 2-1 2.2 Local and Regional Integration ....................................................................................... 2-9 3 - Governance ................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Policies and Programs ..................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Role of Governing Body .................................................................................................. 3-2 3.3 Description of Potential Governance Models ................................................................ 3-4 3.4 Public Private Partnerships ............................................................................................. 3-7 3.5 RTC Governance Strategy ............................................................................................... 3-7 4 - Cost Estimates ............................................................................................................... 4-1 5 - Implementation Plan ..................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Project Delivery Method................................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 Traditional Design-Bid-Build Approach to Implementation ........................................... 5-2 6 - Project Financing ........................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Project Costs ................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Potential Funding Sources .............................................................................................. 6-2 6.3 Options to Address Additional Funding Needs ............................................................ 6-11 7 - Funding Strategy – Cash Flow Model .............................................................................. 7-1 8 - Risk Identification and Mitigation .................................................................................. 8-1 8.1 Funding .............................................................................................................................. 1 8.2 Compatibility with Freight Rail, Recreational Rail and Trail on the SCBRL ROW .............. 2 8.3 Stakeholder Support .......................................................................................................... 4 8.4 Organizational Development ............................................................................................. 4 8.5 Program and Project Delivery Risk .................................................................................... 5 8.6 Ridership Revenue ............................................................................................................. 7 8.7 Future Risks regarding New Technology ........................................................................... 7 8.8 Litigation Risks ................................................................................................................... 8 DRAFT 1 - INTRODUCTION The Transit Corridor Alternatives Analysis and Rail Network Integration Study (TCAA/RNIS) was prepared to evaluate high-capacity transit investment options and identify a locally preferred transit system that utilizes all or part of the length of the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line Right-of- Way (SCBRL ROW). The TCAA/RNIS analyzed various transit alternatives to identify a locally preferred alternative (LPA) that provides the greatest benefit to Santa Cruz County residents, businesses, and visitors in terms of the triple bottom line goals of improving economy, equity, and the environment. At the February 4, 2021 commission meeting, the Santa Cruz County Regional Transportation Commission (RTC) accepted the Transit Corridor Alternatives Analysis and Rail Network Integration Study that selects Electric Passenger Rail as the LPA. Electric passenger rail could be either commuter rail transit (CRT) or light rail transit (LRT). After acceptance of the TCAA/RNIS, the final component of the TCAA/RNIS included development of a 25-year strategic business plan to serve as a guiding document for funding and implementation of the LPA. The Business Plan outlines the funding and implementation strategy for passenger rail on the SCBRL and is organized into the following sections: A description of electric passenger rail including high-level service alignment, potential station, siding, and maintenance facility locations, service frequency and span, as well as a discussion of vehicle types are presented in Section 2: Locally Preferred Alternative. Evaluation of potential governance options needed to implement electric passenger rail including the objectives, responsibilities, and advantages and disadvantages of each strategy, as well as a discussion on existing policies related to rail transit are presented in Section 3: Governance. Estimate of costs for all components of project implementation including pre- construction, construction, and operations and maintenance for an electric passenger rail transit system is presented in Section 4: Cost Estimation. A component approach to implementation, including preliminary design and environmental documentation, final design and permitting, right-of-way acquisition, construction, and vehicle procurement, is presented in Section 5: Implementation Plan. 1-1 DRAFT Information on potential funding sources including grant programs and farebox recovery are presented in Section 6: Project Financing. Prototypical cash-flow analysis, incorporating federal, state, and local funding of environmental review and clearance, system design and permitting, and construction, as well as daily operations and maintenance is presented in Section 7: Funding Strategy - Cash Flow Model. Risks to project funding and cost escalation as well as ways to mitigate risks are presented in Section 8: Risk Identification and Mitigation Factors. The 25-year business plan is based on the best information currently known for the rail transit cost estimates and available funds from various grant programs and other sources. It is difficult to predict what fund sources may be available out into the future for rail transit. A recent Executive Order by Governor Newsom of California (EO N-70-20) directs state agencies to “Build towards an integrated, statewide rail and transit network, consistent with the 2018 California State Rail Plan, to provide seamless, affordable multimodal travel options for all”. At the Federal level, numerous policies and programs are under development with the new Biden-Harris administration. Legislation that embraces a climate resiliency approach to improving transportation infrastructure including alternative modes of transportation is being developed. This administration’s Secretary of Transportation has an agenda that includes “investing in robust transit and transportation infrastructure” in both urban and rural communities. Given the direction at both the Federal and State level, it is highly likely that funding for transit will increase in the near future. This document seeks to serve as a roadmap that can be updated periodically as key inputs, particularly changes to the transit funding landscape and cost estimates as project design advances, develop over the course of the implementation process. 1-2 DRAFT 2 - LOCALLY PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE This section provides a description of Electric Passenger Rail that was selected as the Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA) in the TCAA/RNIS Final Report. A decision on whether the rail option will be electric commuter rail (CRT) or electric light rail (LRT) was not determined in the TCAA/RNIS. With similar infrastructure needs for either CRT or LRT, deferring this decision will maintain flexibility for future decisions on station locations, service frequency, and vehicle type, while clean energy rail technologies advance. The electric rail vehicle types would therefore be better evaluated in the preliminary engineering and environmental analysis and final design components of project delivery. Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2 show the respective alignments, station locations, service frequency and span for CRT and LRT that were considered in the TCAA/RNIS. 2.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF PASSENGER RAIL FOR THE SCBRL The LPA will consider services operating on the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line (SCBRL) Right of Way (ROW) with single or multiple individually-propelled clean energy cars. An overhead catenary system (poles and wires) running the length of the system or a live third rail are not being considered. Operations will be structured on a single track within the SCBRL ROW with periodic passing sidings allowing for two-way travel. The characteristics of the electric passenger rail alternative will include: Vehicle Speeds will be capable of traveling from 30 to 60 mph in the
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