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Ambitions and Results OCTOBER 2019 Ambitions and Results Policy Brief Lessons from the Juncker Commission It appears President-elect Ursula von der Leyen aims at leading an ambitious Commission. Having had to secure a broad alliance in the European Parliament, von der Leyen embraced policy proposals that frequently resemble those of the Juncker Commission. Her ambitions are in some ways remarkable, because the Juncker Commission may have overestimated support for its ambitions in the Council. This policy brief explores possible lessons from her predecessor’s performance. A paradox that emerges is that the ambitions of Commission President Juncker seemed to be initially supported by the EP and Member States. Yet, the Council blocked a number of the important ambitions when they were translated into proposals. This has consequences for the next Commission. The level of ambition and related commitment from von der Leyen may work well in showing visionary leadership, but it may harm the moderation required for actual progress. On 16 July President-elect of the European Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). In cases Commission Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) where the Juncker Commission was only outlined her agenda in the European partially successful, she aims to take things Parliament (EP). It appears that she aims further, for instance by “fully implementing to lead an ambitious Commission. Having the European Pillar of Social Rights” and had to secure a broad alliance across four extending the deadline for full staffing of the party lines in the EP, VDL embraced policy European Border and Coast Guard (EBCG) Adriaan Schout, Jan Marinus Wiersma & Adriaan Nunes Wiersma & Adriaan Marinus Schout, Jan Adriaan proposals that frequently resemble those of to 2024. Furthermore, VDL proposes a the Juncker Commission. In cases where the “Conference on the Future of Europe” that Juncker Commission’s ambitious proposals would possibly lead to treaty change, which mostly failed, the VDL Commission is can be compared to Juncker’s disappointing apparently going to take up the reins, having effort to initiate a broad discussion on the announced objectives such as deepening future of the EU. Thus, her ambitions are Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) by pitched high and range from deepening introducing the European Deposit Insurance major policy areas to potentially initiating Scheme (EDIS) and further strengthening fundamental institutional reforms.1 the banking union, forging a “New Pact on Migration and Asylum” by reforming the Dublin rules, proposing a common consolidated corporate tax base and a 1 Ursula von der Leyen, “A Union that Strives for digital tax and expanding qualified majority More: My Agenda for Europe. Political Guidelines voting (QMV) in climate policy, energy for the next European Commission 2019-2024”, policy, social policy, taxation and Common Brussels: European Parliament, 2019. Clingendael Policy Brief Her ambitions are in some ways remarkable, is just about right. In general, visionary because the Juncker Commission may have leadership is bound to provoke resistance overestimated support for its ambitions in the from Member States, so that in the end Council. This policy brief explores possible a more group-oriented broker role results in lessons from her predecessor’s performance. more effectively cementing agreements. From the start, the Juncker Commission was very ambitious, presenting itself as the Apart from possible personal drivers to show “last-chance Commission” and underlining leadership, any president-elect would be that in the aftermath of the euro crisis the expected to show ambition simply because Commission had to “deliver” to regain the the most pregnant problems have to be trust of Europe’s citizens. By wanting to solved. Acknowledging the circumstances of make a difference and focusing on being the past few years of vying pressures such “big-on-big”, Juncker also sought to lead as high youth unemployment, concerns over a “very political Commission”.2 climate change, and, for various reasons, marked forms of populism, the tension But has the public avowal of ambition turned between the need for and dislike of high out to be a successful strategy? Evidently, EU ambitions is evident. A discussion on the ambitions may be useful in opening up effectiveness of high Commission ambitions discussions and “promoting the general is required when moving from one president interest of the Union”, as the Commission’s to the next, but the discussion is also of task is defined in the Treaty on European longer-term relevance as (multi-)annual Union.3 Yet a paradox is apparent in the agendas are a recurring theme. Even though arena of European negotiations. As a rule, the Council almost unanimously backed rotating presidencies are wise to downplay VDL’s nomination and restated its desire ambitions even though national politicians for an EU that acts ambitiously (“big on tend to be full of ideas and hobby horses big and small on small” reads the Council’s (a politician is a politician), whereas the “New Strategic Agenda 2019-2024”5), it is president of the Commission seems to debatable whether, once the real decisions be expected to be ambitious and to be have to be made, the Council will in the big-on-big. As discussed elsewhere in end agree. relation to leadership styles of the rotating presidencies of the Council4, visionary (or transformational) leadership can be effective The challenge of evaluating the if objectives are few in number, carefully Commission presidency prioritised and meticulously prepared so that within the limited priorities selected the pitch (realistic goal and tone of the proposal) As is the case with public organisations generally6, evaluating a presidency is not a straightforward affair given conflicting expectations and differences between 2 Adriaan Schout and Hedwich van der Bij, “The immediate and longer-term outcomes Juncker Commission and public support for the (including immediate measurable effects, EU: Doing good or doing the right thing?” in effects that involve long gestation periods, Hug, A. (Ed.), Europe and the people: Examining and changes in attitude that demand long the EU’s democratic legitimacy, ed. Adam Hug time-frames). Moreover, ambitions also play (London: Foreign Policy Centre, 2016). Adriaan Schout, “Commission president Juncker: ‘Good intentions but wrong profile’”, Internationale Spectator, 14 June 2017. 3 Treaty on European Union, Title III: Provisions on the Institutions, Article 17. 4 Schout, A. (1998), “The Presidency as juggler; 5 European Council, “A New Strategic Agenda 2019- managing conflicting expectations”, EIPASCOPE, 2024”, 20 June 2019. no. 2, June: pp. 2-10. Schout, A. (2008), “Beyond 6 E.g. Powell, V. (1987), Improving Public Enterprise the Rotating Presidency”, in Hayward, J. (ed.) Performance: Concepts and Techniques (Geneva: Leaderless Europe, Oxford: Oxford University Press. International Labour Office). 2 Clingendael Policy Brief a complicated role in policy processes.7 Commission’s output to date was conducted Ambitions are needed to create awareness by the European Parliamentary Research of, and support for, new developments and Service. It concluded that the Juncker to stimulate debates about new values Commission tabled 94% of its planned that are needed. Yet we also see that high proposals, amounting to a total of 547 tabled ambitions tend, for instance in the EU, to proposals, of which 66% were adopted, while become merely symbolic, as in the case 21% of tabled proposals are still in process.12 of oft-repeated environmental ambitions EU scholars have also begun to publish end- and reduction targets.8 What is more, the of-term assessments.13 Von Ondarza (2019), European integration process has been for instance, concludes that the Commission typified by a number of high ambitions has become more focussed and internally that keep on being blocked because coherent even though many of its legislative of conflicts between Member States. proposals failed and the Commission Monetary integration is an example of a politicisation clashed with its control tasks. policy area that, from the 1960s onwards, However, the assessments do not address has been caught in a stalemate between the usefulness of high ambitions in relation northern Member States demanding solidity to results achieved. (convergence) and southern Member States wanting solidarity.9 Some policies simply This policy brief builds on an earlier study tend to move forward slowly. on the output of the Juncker Commission14 in which a selection was made of successful A number of assessments are already policy proposals that were realised, “partial available. Juncker’s self-assessment, successes” and proposals that were either presented at Sibiu, stated: “We have withdrawn or parked (“failures”). achieved a lot together: we agreed on 348 proposals, 90% of them through unanimity; unemployment and deficits are down The apparent legitimacy of compared to 2014 and growth is up. Unity Juncker’s ambitions matters and this is our way to the future.”10 He also presented the Commission’s account of the “Top 20 EU achievements 2014-2019”, For various reasons it was to be expected such as the ban on single-use plastics that Juncker would lead an ambitious and ending roaming charges.11 The most Commission. The multitude of crises that hit comprehensive assessment of the Juncker the EU, some of them before Juncker took office, heightened the political sensitivity of European integration. The euro crisis tested Member States’ resolve to bail 7 Moran M., M. Rein, R. Goodin (eds) (2008), out fellow Member States in financial The Oxford Handbook of Political Policy, Oxford University Press: Ch. 1 “Introduction”. Dryzek, J., B. Ripley (1988), “The ambition of policy design”, Review of Policy Research, 7:4, 705-719. 12 Étienne Bassot and Wolfgang Hiller, “The Juncker 8 Jordan, A., A. Schout (2006), The coordination of Commission’s ten priorities: An end-of-term European Governance: exploring the capacities for assessment”, Brussels: European Parliament networked governance, Oxford: Oxford University Research Service, 2019. Press. 13 See, for instance: Nicolai von Ondarza, 9 Szász, A.
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