Dec 2012

OE Threat Assessment:

TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA)

Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID)

[Type the author name] United States Army 6/1/2012 OE Threat Assessment: Saudi Arabia

Introduction Saudi Arabia is a Middle Eastern country located in the Arabian Peninsula. On 23 September 1932, after a 30-year campaign, Abd al-Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud united the Arab tribes of the Arabian Peninsula to form the modern state of Saudi Arabia. Since its establishment, a descendent of al-Saud has ruled the monarchy, formally named the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia wields considerable political, religious, and economic power by virtue of its sizable petroleum reserves and its status as the birthplace of the Prophet Muhammad and the cradle of Islam. A strong ally of the U.S., Saudi Arabia has adversarial neighbors, and is a critical resource supplier to many Western countries. Political Saudi Arabia is a monarchy in which the king must be a male descendant of Abd al-Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud, the first . The present king, coronated in 2005, is Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz al-Saud. Abdullah serves as both king and prime minister, and is also the head of state and government. Every four years, the prime minister appoints all members of the Majlis al-Shura (legislature) and two-thirds of the members of the Council of Ministers (cabinet), with the remainder being elected.

King Abdallah has initiated some reforms since taking power, including appointing more moderates to ministerial and judicial positions. Reform efforts were stepped up starting in 2010 due to the “Arab Spring” uprisings and included salary increases, unemployment benefits, the institution of elections for municipal council seats, and the granting of female suffrage – the latter to be instituted in 2015. No formal political parties are officially recognized by the monarchy, though unofficial groups exist across the political spectrum.

The most pressing political issues in the kingdom are terrorism and minority Shia unrest. Al- Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) continues to subvert the government and conduct attacks against the nation’s oil industry. Protests and clashes between the kingdom’s security forces and the minority Shia population highlight the sectarian tensions that persist. During 2009-2011 a Shia cleric and several activists were arrested and a number of mosques were closed in a government effort to contain the problem.

A Sunni Islam state, Saudi Arabia often finds itself at odds with Shia-dominated Iran. One particular area of concern is Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial to the export of regional hydrocarbons. Iran’s frequent threats to close the strait for political reasons has caused Saudi Arabia and its neighbors to begin exploring ways to bypass the waterway altogether. Other issues include frequent clashes along the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border, talks

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with Kuwait and Iran over their borders in the Persian Gulf, and the country claiming ownership of two Egyptian-administered islands in the Red Sea. The Saudi Monarchy views the U.S. as a key strategic ally and was the largest U.S. trading partner in the Middle East as of 2010. Military

Non-State Paramilitary Forces

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) AQAP was founded in the early 2000s in Saudi Arabia and merged with the Yemeni branch of al Qaeda in 2009. The current leader is Nasir Abd al-Karim al-Wuhayshi, aka Abu Basir. The organization’s goal is threefold: to expel Jews and Christians from the Arabian Peninsula; to establish an Islamic caliphate under Sharia law; and to “liberate” Muslim lands. AQAP also opposes al-Shabab al-Muminin, a Zaydi Shia group in Yemen that it believes to be an agent of Iran. The group maintains its headquarters and a training camp near al-Jarbah village in Sa’ada governorate, Yemen, and controls part of Abyan and Zinjibar governorates as well. It has been known to operate under the name Ansar al-Sharia as well as the more familiar AQAP. The Saudi government continues to crack down on this group rather effectively, while the Yemeni government has had only limited success.

AQAP usually performs attacks in Yemen, but has also done so in Saudi Arabia, the U.S., the UAE, and Great Britain. Attacks of particular note include a double suicide bombing against tourists in Yemen, the attempted assassination of Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Interior Minister, the attempted bombing of a UPS flight using a rigged printer cartridge; the attack on the USS Cole; and the infamous “underwear bomber” in the United States. Common tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) include small arms attacks, IEDs – including suicide bombers, assassinations, and kidnappings, primarily against government and security forces, oil infrastructure, and al- Shabab al-Muminin. The group receives funding mainly through zakat – the donation to the poor required by Islam – and through collections taken at mosques.

AQAP is believed to possess the following weapons and equipment:

Kalashnikov rifles PK machine guns B10 recoilless guns Rocket-propelled grenades Hand grenades Heavy machineguns Mines Mortars SA-7 MANPADS M1113 APC 20mm Vulcan AD System (truck 122mm D30 howitzer mounted) 23mm ZU-23-2 AA gun (some are truck mounted) 3 UNCLASSIFIED

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Additional Groups Groups that have previously been active in Saudi Arabia include the Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi Battalion and al-Haramayn Brigades. While these groups have not been known to have committed any attacks in the past several years, there is insufficient information to determine whether or not they are, in fact, still active. A third group, Hizbullah al-Hijaz (Saudi Hizbullah), denounced violence in the early 2000s and has since focused on social and religious topics. Any one of these groups has the potential, given the right impetus, to regroup and recommence attacks in the country.

Nonmilitary Armed Combatants There are approximately 6,000,000 privately owned firearms in Saudi Arabia. This is a concern, as there is an active Shia dissident movement that regularly conducts illegal protests and demonstrations, and these firearms could easily be put to use by this movement. Many clashes have occurred with government security forces, yet none have involved firearms to date.

Additionally, the kingdom perceives the instability along its southern border in Yemen as a serious threat to its national security. Armed but not necessarily paramilitary groups are present in Yemen that may cause threats to Saudi Arabia. These include and numerous tribal groups led by sheikhs and al-Shabab al-Muminin.

Al-Shabab al-Muminin Al-Shabab al-Muminin (“Believing Youth”) is a Zaydi Shia religious movement active in Sa’ada governorate. Led by Abdul Malik al Houthi, the group is stridently anti-U.S. and has engaged in conflict multiple times with Yemeni security forces. In 2010 it clashed with Saudi Arabian forces on the country’s border, resulting in hundreds dead. Prior to signing a peace agreement with the government in February 2010, al-Shabab al-Muminin’s main target was the Yemeni military. It has since chosen to focus its attacks on pro-government Sunni tribes and has earned the ire of AQAP, which has committed several SVBIED attacks against the Shia group. Preferred tactics are guerrilla-style small arms attacks – such as raids and ambushes – and IEDs, though assault tactics have been used.

Al-Shabab al-Muminin is believed to possess the following weapons and equipment:

Ak-series rifles Rocket-propelled grenades Heavy machine guns Mines Explosives Mortars Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) T-54 MBTs (possible) T-55 MBTs (possible) Artillery (possible) Recoilless guns (possible) Communications interception and jamming equipment (possible)

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State Security Forces Based on 2010 estimates, the Saudi Ministry of Defense commands a total of about 233,500 troops, when counting both active duty soldiers and active national guardsmen. The major military branches under the Ministry of Defense include the Royal Saudi Land Forces (RSLF), Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF), (RSAF), Royal Saudi Air Defense Force (RSADF), Royal Saudi Strategic Rocket Forces (RSSRF), Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG), Saudi Royal Guard Brigade (SRB), and Saudi Emergency Force (SEF).

ARMY Armored Equipment in Service M1A2 Main Battle Tank 373 M113/A1 Armored 1,700 AML-60, Armored 110 Personnel Carrier and Reconnaissance Vehicle BMP-3 M-60A3 Main Battle Tank 450 Oto Melera VCC-1 with 224 AML-90, Armored 190 TOW (upgraded M113) Reconnaissance Vehicle AMX-30 Main Battle 290 Fuchs-2 Nuclear, 36 AMX-10P 570 Tank (Active) (storage) Biological, and Chemical Warfare Vehicle Panhard M3 Armored 150 Piranhas VCC-1 (upgraded 499 M88 Armored Recovery 92 Personnel Carrier M113; many with TOW) Vehicle M-2A2 Bradley with 400 LAV-AG 130 M578 Armored Recovery 60 25mm Cannon Turret Vehicle and twin TOW Launcher Artillery Systems in Service 203mm M-115 Howitzer, Unk 155mm FH-70 Howitzer, 38 81mm and 107mm Mortar, 180 towed towed towed 155mm M109A 1/2 110 155mm M-114 Howitzer, 50 120mm Mortar, towed 48 Howitzer, self-propelled towed 155mm GCT 51 ASTROS II Multiple Rocket 60 107mm M106 A1/A2 150 Howitzer, Launcher self-propelled 155mm M101/102 Howitzer, Unk 81mm Mortar, mounted 70 M548 Ammunition Carrier 36 towed 155mm M-198 Howitzer, 26 M-30, 4.2 inch Mortar, 150 M992 Field Artillery 56 towed mounted Ammunition supply Vehicle Anti-Tank Weapons in Service TOW/TOW-2A 950 112mm APILAS Light 200 84mm Carl Gustav Recoilless 300 Antitank Weapon Rifle M-47 Dragon Anti-Tank 1,000 106mm M40A1 Recoilless 40 90mm M67 Rocket Launchers 100 Guided Missile Rifle HOT Antitank Guided Missile Unk Systems, crew served

AIR FORCE Fixed Wing Aircraft in Service

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Eurofighter Typhoon 24 F-15D Eagle, 22 Tornado IDS, 11 Interceptor/Air Defense Reconnaissance/Surveillance F-15S Eagle, Multirole 70 Tornado IDS, Ground 69 RE-3A/B Electronic 2 Attack/Strike Intelligence F-15 C Eagle, Interceptor/Air 60 E-3A Sentry, Airborne 5 Defense Early Warning and Control Rotary Wing Aircraft in Service AH-64A Apache 12 AS-565 Maritime, Anti- 15 SA-365N Medical Evacuation 6 Submarine AH-64D Apache Longbow 70 UH-60 Black Hawk 20 UL-60 Black Hawk Medical 10 (Purchased) Evacuation AS-532 Super Puma 12 CS406 Scout, combat, 15 AH-64A Apache 12 transport, and support AS-332 6 S-70A-1 Sikorsky Black 12 Hawk Transport Air Defense Weapons in Service FIM-92A Stinger 500 40mm Bofors L-60/70, 150 Hellfire II Missile Unk anti-aircraft gun FIM-43 Redeye 500 SA-16 (Gimlet, Kolomna Unk Modernized Targeting 12 KBN Igla) Acquisition and Designation System/Pilot Night Vision Sensor Crotale (Shahine self 73/36 35mm Oerlikon, towed 128 AN/APG-78 Firs Control Radar 12 propelled firing/acquisition anti-aircraft gun units) Crotale (Shahine shilter 19/10 90mm M-117, towed 15 M299 Hellfire Longbow 28 mounted firing/acquisition anti-aircraft gun Missile Launchers units) Mistrals 500 AM/FPS-117 Radar 17 Infrared Jammer 12 DCA Self propelled anti- 53 SAM Batteries 33 Radar Jammer 12 aircraft gun 40mm M-42, anti-aircraft 10 Hellfire Missile 179 Improved Countermeasures 36 gun Dispenser 20mm M-163 Vulcan, anti- 92 aircraft gun

NAVY Vessels in Service Al Class Frigate, 3 Al Sadiq Class Patrol Craft 9 Boraida Class Oiler (French) 2 Lafayette F-3000S(French) (U.S.) Al Medina Class Frigate, F- 4 Al Jawf Sandown Class 3 Halter type Patrol Craft- 17 2000S (French) Single Role Minehunter Coastal (U.K.) Al Badr Class Corvette, PCG- 4 Addiyah (MSC 322) 4 Simonneau Type 51 Patrol 39 1 (U.S.) Minesweeper Craft-Coastal

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Government Paramilitary Forces The country has approximately 500 armed special security forces, 10,500 armed Border Guards, and 4,500 armed Coast Guardsmen.

Military Functions

Mission Command King Abdallah serves as the Commander in Chief. Crown Prince Abd al-Rahman bin Abdul Aziz serves as the Minister of Defense and Aviation (MoDA). Prince Tired bin Abdullah bin Abdul al Aziz al Saud serves as Chairman of the SANG. Prince Nayef bin Abdul al Aziz al Saud serves as the Minister of Interior. Note that all of the kingdom’s top military leaders are blood relatives.

The MoDA focuses its force development on external threats posed from Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. It views the Shia Crescent (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran) as a real threat as well. The MoDA remains concerned with the Iranian nuclear threat as well as the conventional missile and asymmetric threat it poses. Regional insurgent and terrorist groups are also persistent threats.

Maneuver The country’s concept of defense is to first use diplomacy and aid in the region to secure the nation. It relies on its allies such as the U.S. and Britain to deter its enemies. Internally it has created an overlapping array of security forces beginning at its borders, including counterterrorism forces. Saudi Arabia focuses its military forces on airpower and land-based air defense that is centered on the upper Gulf region and the border with Yemen. The kingdom is developing naval fleets in the Gulf and Red Sea. The MoDA has stationed military units, including its 11 maneuver brigades, in cities backed by air fields at critical border crossings. The kingdom’s air power supports strategic mobility and compensates for a lack of ground forces.

INFOWAR Saudi Arabia’s Communications and Information Technology Commission (CITC) regularly blocks Web sites regarded as subversive or offensive to Islam. In 2007, the king enacted a cyber crime law that made all hacking-related activities illegal and punishable in Saudi criminal courts. Saudi Arabia continues to purchase and upgrade its Reconnaissance and Surveillance (R&S) and command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (C4I) systems in earnest and has both ground and airborne assets that have the capability to conduct electronic warfare/signals intelligence (EW/SIGINT) operations.

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RISTA Prince Mugrin Bin Abdul al Aziz al Saud serves as the President/Director of General Intelligence. Prince Bandar bin Sultan Bin Abdul al Aziz al Saud serves as the Chairman of the National Security Council. Prince Nayef bin Abdul al Aziz al Saud, of the MoI, controls the General Security Services, which are the internal intelligence services of the kingdom. Nayef’s son serves as his deputy.

The government spent massive amounts of money on developing its R&S capabilities, especially in the airborne EW/SIGINT platforms and air defense arena, such as target identification, acquisition, and tracking radar. The RSADF maintains extensive C4I systems, and becomes subordinate to the RSAF in time of war. Much of Saudi Arabia’s R&S is focused on internal security.

Fire Support The army has one artillery brigade with nearly 900 artillery weapons, mostly towed guns and mortars; some have modern fire control systems, artillery radars, and other support equipment. Non-state actors are not known to have fire support capability other than mortars.

Logistics The country’s military has an adequate level of logistical support, including transport aircraft. Non-state actors have limited logistics capabilities and the extent of these capabilities is unknown.

Force Protection Issues The primary force protection issue found in Saudi Arabia is the presence of AQAP. While the group mainly focuses its attacks against host nation security forces, any US forces in country would present a desirable target. Troops should avoid congregating in areas such as hotels, shopping areas, and other attractions frequented by Westerners. Standard anti-terrorism and force protection measures apply, such as being aware of surroundings and varying travel routes and schedules. Economic Saudi Arabia’s economy is oil-based, accounting for 45% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 80% of government revenue, and the kingdom holds more than 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. The kingdom maintains strong government control over all major economic activities and is host to around six million foreign workers, most of which fill unskilled or semi-skilled labor positions. Unemployment is around 11%, with female unemployment being much higher than that of their male counterparts. Industry makes up 68% of the country’s GDP and provides

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employment for 21% of the labor force. A large service sector accounts for 30% of GDP and 72% of employment, and includes construction, ship repair, aircraft repair, sales, and hospitality/tourism. Only 2% of GDP and 7% of the labor force fall into the agricultural sector. The country is heavily reliant upon food imports, but is able to produce sufficient amounts of wheat, eggs, and milk for its population.

Political and economic instability contributes to a number of illegal economic activities. Terrorism activities and insurgency in Saudi Arabia and in neighboring Yemen provide an ideal environment for black market activity, especially arms and fuel smuggling. Terrorist and insurgent groups engage in organized criminal activities including human and weapons trafficking, and have kidnapped both citizens and foreigners for ransom on numerous occasions. Saudi Arabia is also a destination country for men, women, and children subjected to forced labor and forced prostitution. The kingdom does not fully comply with the minimum standards to control trafficking. The law does call for the death penalty to drug-traffickers, however, and the government is improving anti-money laundering laws and enforcement. Social Saudi Arabia’s 21 million resident citizens are young, literate, urban, and predominantly Arab in ethnicity and speech. The official religion is Islam, with most citizens belonging to the Sunni branch. Other religions are also practiced, mainly by the nation’s six million foreign workers. Women are routinely discriminated against. They must be veiled outside the home, require written permission from a male “guardian” to travel or work, are not legally allowed to drive, and only recently were granted the right to vote and to stand in future municipal elections. Other common human rights violations in the country include suppression of freedom of speech, assembly, religion, and the press. Security forces and the judicial system discriminate against women, foreign workers, and the small Shia religious minority. Information Common communication methods include newspapers, television, radio, and word of mouth via post, landline and cell phones, and face-to-face meetings. Around one-third of residents have access to the Internet. Freedom of the press is limited, with the government censoring broadcast and print media and the Internet. Private broadcasting is illegal, but satellite television is common.

Saudi intelligence organizations include the Directorate of General Intelligence, the National Security Council, and the General Security Services, the latter being the country’s internal intelligence organization. The government’s intelligence apparatus is used for

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counterintelligence, counter espionage, internal security, and gathering intelligence on external threats to the country. Its main purpose is to protect the monarchy. Infrastructure Most residents live in urban areas, which generally fall into two construction patterns. Older towns are usually built around the mosque or town water source, while newer planned towns follow a gridiron pattern. Houses consist of rooms built around a central enclosed courtyard, and contain separate walkways and public rooms for each gender. Most residents have access to improved drinking water, sanitation, and electricity. Fresh water is scarce, and most drinking water comes from the country’s desalination plants.

Roads are the primary transportation method. The country has two major rail lines and is planning three more, and has multiple airports with both paved and unpaved runways. International trade usually occurs via ports on the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Unsurprisingly, the country has considerable hydrocarbon-related infrastructure. Oil refineries are located at port cities on both the east and west coasts. Pipelines run from the oil- and natural gas-rich east coast to the Red Sea, Lebanon, and Oman. The oil pipeline from eastern Saudi Arabia to Iraq is currently shut down, but the two countries are discussing the possibility of reopening it. Physical Environment Saudi Arabia occupies most of the Arabian Peninsula in the Middle East. The country shares borders with Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Yemen. It also has coastal borders on the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf – which Saudis refer to as the Arabian Gulf – and possesses islands in both. The country’s terrain consists of mountains and plateaus in the west that eventually give way to open plains in the east. Wadis are plentiful, but no permanent rivers exist. The climate is predominantly arid (desert), though a small region in the far southwest is more humid. Natural resources include vast amounts of oil and natural gas in the eastern part of the country and the Persian Gulf. Natural hazards are primarily dust and sand storms, floods, and limited volcanic activity. Desertification and lack of fresh water are major environmental concerns in the country, as is pollution in waterways near the oil fields, which are exposed to oil spills, dumping, and industrial run-off. Time The Saudi culture is unconcerned with adherence to strict time schedules, though people in the urban areas are more likely to understand the Western emphasis on time. The work day varies by profession and can average between 40 to 48 hours total per week, with the official work week being Saturday through Thursday. Only two official holidays are celebrated in the country: Eid al Fitr (End of Ramadan) and Eid al Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice). The government has

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allowed limited celebration of Ashura, which is a Shia celebration marking the martyrdom of Husayn, grandson of Mohammed, at the Battle of Karbala. Official and unofficial holidays are Mawlid un Nabi (Birth of the Prophet Muhammad) (Unofficial), Eid al-Fitr, Independence Day (Unofficial), Eid al-Adha, El Hijra (Islamic New Year) (Unofficial), and Ashura (Unofficial).

References “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).” Jane’s World Insurgency and Terrorism. 14 November 2012. Bureau of Consular Affairs. “Travel Warning: Saudi Arabia.” USDoS. 19 November 2012. “Geography of Saudi Arabia.” Maps of the World. 2012. OEA Team. “OE Quick Guide: Saudi Arabia.” TRISA-Threats. December 2012. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. “Global Terrorism Database.” U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 2011. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. “Terrorist Organization Profiles.” U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 2008. Nazemroava, Mahdi Darius. “The Geo-Politics of the Strait of Hormuz: Could the U.S. Navy be defeated by Iran in the Persian Gulf?” Global Research. 8 January 2012. Roggio, Bill. “US drones kill 4 AQAP fighters in rare strike in northern Yemen.” Long War Journal. 28 October 2012. “Saudi Arabia.” Encyclopaedia Britannica. 2012. “Saudi Arabia weather, climate and geography.” World Travel Guide. 2012. “The World Factbook: Saudi Arabia.” CIA. 13 November 2012.

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