Country Located in the Arabian Peninsula
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Dec 2012 OE Threat Assessment: Saudi Arabia TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID) [Type the author name] United States Army 6/1/2012 OE Threat Assessment: Saudi Arabia Introduction Saudi Arabia is a Middle Eastern country located in the Arabian Peninsula. On 23 September 1932, after a 30-year campaign, Abd al-Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud united the Arab tribes of the Arabian Peninsula to form the modern state of Saudi Arabia. Since its establishment, a descendent of al-Saud has ruled the monarchy, formally named the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia wields considerable political, religious, and economic power by virtue of its sizable petroleum reserves and its status as the birthplace of the Prophet Muhammad and the cradle of Islam. A strong ally of the U.S., Saudi Arabia has adversarial neighbors, and is a critical resource supplier to many Western countries. Political Saudi Arabia is a monarchy in which the king must be a male descendant of Abd al-Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud, the first king of Saudi Arabia. The present king, coronated in 2005, is Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz al-Saud. Abdullah serves as both king and prime minister, and is also the head of state and government. Every four years, the prime minister appoints all members of the Majlis al-Shura (legislature) and two-thirds of the members of the Council of Ministers (cabinet), with the remainder being elected. King Abdallah has initiated some reforms since taking power, including appointing more moderates to ministerial and judicial positions. Reform efforts were stepped up starting in 2010 due to the “Arab Spring” uprisings and included salary increases, unemployment benefits, the institution of elections for municipal council seats, and the granting of female suffrage – the latter to be instituted in 2015. No formal political parties are officially recognized by the monarchy, though unofficial groups exist across the political spectrum. The most pressing political issues in the kingdom are terrorism and minority Shia unrest. Al- Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) continues to subvert the government and conduct attacks against the nation’s oil industry. Protests and clashes between the kingdom’s security forces and the minority Shia population highlight the sectarian tensions that persist. During 2009-2011 a Shia cleric and several activists were arrested and a number of mosques were closed in a government effort to contain the problem. A Sunni Islam state, Saudi Arabia often finds itself at odds with Shia-dominated Iran. One particular area of concern is Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial to the export of regional hydrocarbons. Iran’s frequent threats to close the strait for political reasons has caused Saudi Arabia and its neighbors to begin exploring ways to bypass the waterway altogether. Other issues include frequent clashes along the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border, talks 2 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Saudi Arabia with Kuwait and Iran over their borders in the Persian Gulf, and the country claiming ownership of two Egyptian-administered islands in the Red Sea. The Saudi Monarchy views the U.S. as a key strategic ally and was the largest U.S. trading partner in the Middle East as of 2010. Military Non-State Paramilitary Forces Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) AQAP was founded in the early 2000s in Saudi Arabia and merged with the Yemeni branch of al Qaeda in 2009. The current leader is Nasir Abd al-Karim al-Wuhayshi, aka Abu Basir. The organization’s goal is threefold: to expel Jews and Christians from the Arabian Peninsula; to establish an Islamic caliphate under Sharia law; and to “liberate” Muslim lands. AQAP also opposes al-Shabab al-Muminin, a Zaydi Shia group in Yemen that it believes to be an agent of Iran. The group maintains its headquarters and a training camp near al-Jarbah village in Sa’ada governorate, Yemen, and controls part of Abyan and Zinjibar governorates as well. It has been known to operate under the name Ansar al-Sharia as well as the more familiar AQAP. The Saudi government continues to crack down on this group rather effectively, while the Yemeni government has had only limited success. AQAP usually performs attacks in Yemen, but has also done so in Saudi Arabia, the U.S., the UAE, and Great Britain. Attacks of particular note include a double suicide bombing against tourists in Yemen, the attempted assassination of Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Interior Minister, the attempted bombing of a UPS flight using a rigged printer cartridge; the attack on the USS Cole; and the infamous “underwear bomber” in the United States. Common tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) include small arms attacks, IEDs – including suicide bombers, assassinations, and kidnappings, primarily against government and security forces, oil infrastructure, and al- Shabab al-Muminin. The group receives funding mainly through zakat – the donation to the poor required by Islam – and through collections taken at mosques. AQAP is believed to possess the following weapons and equipment: Kalashnikov rifles PK machine guns B10 recoilless guns Rocket-propelled grenades Hand grenades Heavy machineguns Mines Mortars SA-7 MANPADS M1113 APC 20mm Vulcan AD System (truck 122mm D30 howitzer mounted) 23mm ZU-23-2 AA gun (some are truck mounted) 3 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Saudi Arabia Additional Groups Groups that have previously been active in Saudi Arabia include the Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi Battalion and al-Haramayn Brigades. While these groups have not been known to have committed any attacks in the past several years, there is insufficient information to determine whether or not they are, in fact, still active. A third group, Hizbullah al-Hijaz (Saudi Hizbullah), denounced violence in the early 2000s and has since focused on social and religious topics. Any one of these groups has the potential, given the right impetus, to regroup and recommence attacks in the country. Nonmilitary Armed Combatants There are approximately 6,000,000 privately owned firearms in Saudi Arabia. This is a concern, as there is an active Shia dissident movement that regularly conducts illegal protests and demonstrations, and these firearms could easily be put to use by this movement. Many clashes have occurred with government security forces, yet none have involved firearms to date. Additionally, the kingdom perceives the instability along its southern border in Yemen as a serious threat to its national security. Armed but not necessarily paramilitary groups are present in Yemen that may cause threats to Saudi Arabia. These include and numerous tribal groups led by sheikhs and al-Shabab al-Muminin. Al-Shabab al-Muminin Al-Shabab al-Muminin (“Believing Youth”) is a Zaydi Shia religious movement active in Sa’ada governorate. Led by Abdul Malik al Houthi, the group is stridently anti-U.S. and has engaged in conflict multiple times with Yemeni security forces. In 2010 it clashed with Saudi Arabian forces on the country’s border, resulting in hundreds dead. Prior to signing a peace agreement with the government in February 2010, al-Shabab al-Muminin’s main target was the Yemeni military. It has since chosen to focus its attacks on pro-government Sunni tribes and has earned the ire of AQAP, which has committed several SVBIED attacks against the Shia group. Preferred tactics are guerrilla-style small arms attacks – such as raids and ambushes – and IEDs, though assault tactics have been used. Al-Shabab al-Muminin is believed to possess the following weapons and equipment: Ak-series rifles Rocket-propelled grenades Heavy machine guns Mines Explosives Mortars Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) T-54 MBTs (possible) T-55 MBTs (possible) Artillery (possible) Recoilless guns (possible) Communications interception and jamming equipment (possible) 4 UNCLASSIFIED OE Threat Assessment: Saudi Arabia State Security Forces Based on 2010 estimates, the Saudi Ministry of Defense commands a total of about 233,500 troops, when counting both active duty soldiers and active national guardsmen. The major military branches under the Ministry of Defense include the Royal Saudi Land Forces (RSLF), Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF), Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF), Royal Saudi Air Defense Force (RSADF), Royal Saudi Strategic Rocket Forces (RSSRF), Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG), Saudi Royal Guard Brigade (SRB), and Saudi Emergency Force (SEF). ARMY Armored Equipment in Service M1A2 Main Battle Tank 373 M113/A1 Armored 1,700 AML-60, Armored 110 Personnel Carrier and Reconnaissance Vehicle BMP-3 M-60A3 Main Battle Tank 450 Oto Melera VCC-1 with 224 AML-90, Armored 190 TOW (upgraded M113) Reconnaissance Vehicle AMX-30 Main Battle 290 Fuchs-2 Nuclear, 36 AMX-10P 570 Tank (Active) (storage) Biological, and Chemical Warfare Vehicle Panhard M3 Armored 150 Piranhas VCC-1 (upgraded 499 M88 Armored Recovery 92 Personnel Carrier M113; many with TOW) Vehicle M-2A2 Bradley with 400 LAV-AG 130 M578 Armored Recovery 60 25mm Cannon Turret Vehicle and twin TOW Launcher Artillery Systems in Service 203mm M-115 Howitzer, Unk 155mm FH-70 Howitzer, 38 81mm and 107mm Mortar, 180 towed towed towed 155mm M109A 1/2 110 155mm M-114 Howitzer, 50 120mm Mortar, towed 48 Howitzer, self-propelled towed 155mm GCT 51 ASTROS II Multiple Rocket 60 107mm M106 A1/A2 150 Howitzer, Launcher self-propelled 155mm M101/102 Howitzer, Unk 81mm Mortar, mounted 70 M548 Ammunition Carrier 36 towed 155mm M-198 Howitzer, 26 M-30, 4.2 inch Mortar, 150 M992