Trauma and Affective Forecasting: Reactions to Large Scale and Small Scale Tragedies

Rizeq, J. & McCann, D. Social Cognition and Psychopathology Lab, Department of Psychology, York University

IntroductionIntroduction Resultsesults Affective Forecasting • Will you feel more negative towards 5 or 5000 reported dead in forest fires? Most people’s actual reactions are not what we would predict! Role (Forecaster, Experiencer) X Scope (Small, Large) Interaction on Reported Negative Affect • Affective forecasting involves predicting one’s emotion towards future events (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). • Affective forecasts are inaccurate as compared to actual emotional Canadian Sample Middle Eastern Sample reports by experiencers (Wilson et al., 2000). • Previous work found that forecasters calibrate their emotional Results across the merged predictions to the scope of a tragedy, while those who experience the sample: events report emotions that are insensitive to the scope of the reported tragedy (Dunn & Ashton-James, 2007). Scope

Two Systems of Information Processing F(1, 190) = 2.20, p = 0.14 • Forecasters tend to rely on a rational thought processing system that is deliberate, analytic, slow and logical. Experiencers, on the other hand, are overwhelmed by the emotional experience and tend to rely on an experiential thought processing system that is rapid and automatic. Role

Trauma and Affective Forecasting F(1, 190) = 4.20, p = 0.042 • Trauma experience is highly emotional and leaves its victims sensitized to emotional situations and cues, relying on automatic and rapid processing. Interaction • This study explored the role of past personal trauma experience in emotional predictions toward small-scale and large-scale tragedies. F(1, 190) = 6.23, p = 0.013 • Hypothesis: In contrast to the typical pattern of results found for affective forecasters, it was expected that participants with high trauma effect would predict similar emotions to small-scale and large- scale tragedies, relying on the experiential processing system. It was expected that participants with low trauma would predict higher Mean Forecasted Negative Affect By Scope of Tragedy and Level of Trauma negative emotion toward large-scale tragedies as compared to small- scale tragedies, relying on the rational processing system. Scope Small Large Method Trauma Index (SD) (SD) • Data was collected from two samples.; One sample was taken from an undergraduate research pool at York University with mean age of 20.7 Low M=11.69 (6.36) M= 14.48 (6.78) F(1, 52) = 7.18, p = 0.01 years (SD = 3.89); 68 were females and 33 were males. The second sample consisted of residents of the Middle East that took part in the study through an online engine. 130 participants completed the online High M= 13.66 (6.10) M= 13.28 (6.23) questionnaire with mean age of 26.00 years (SD = 9.21); 30 males and F(1, 52) = 2.33, p = 0.135 96 females. • Following the method of Dunn & Ashton-James (2007) participants were presented with either a magazine excerpt and asked to report their emotional reactions, or were presented with a summary of the same Conclusions References story and asked to predict their emotions. The Story presented either a small-scale tragedy or a large-scale tragedy. Affective Forecasts by Scope and Role • Briere, J.N. & Runtz, M.G. (1989). The Trauma Symptom Checklist (TSC-33): Early data on a new scale. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, • Participants exhibited an intensity bias when predicting their emotional reactions. Forecasts of emotional responses were an overestimate 4, 151-163 of their actual reactions. • Cole, C., B. (1986, May). Differential long-term effects of child sexual Measures • Consistent with previous findings, people’s affective forecasts were sensitive to the scope of tragedy, with higher predicted negative and physical abuse. Paper presented at the 4th National Conference on affect towards large-scale tragedies as compared to small-scale tragedies. Whereas experiencers’ actual emotional reactions were Sexual Victimization of Children, New Orleans. Trauma Measures insensitive to the scope of tragedies. • Dunn, E. W. & Ashton-James, C. (2007). On Emotional Innumeracy: • Trauma Symptom Checklist-40 (TSC-40). Is a 40-item scale Personal Trauma on Affective Forecasts Predicted and Actual Affective Responses to Grand-Scale Tragedies. developed by Briere & Runtz (1989) to assess adult symptomology Journal of Experiential Social Psychology, 44, 692-698. • Low trauma group showed scope sensitive emotional forecasts with higher negative affect towards large-scale tragedies. This supports related with childhood or adult traumatic experiences. It has six • Finkelhor, D., Turner, H. A., Shauck, A., & Hamby, S. L. (2013). Violence, assumptions regarding the role of the rational processing system when making emotional predictions. subscales: 1)Dissociation 2) Anxiety 3) Depression 4) SATI(Sexual crime, and abuse exposure in a naonal sample of children and youth: an • High trauma group showed scope insensitive emotional forecasts with similar negative affect towards large and small-scale tragedies. update. JAMA pediatrics, 167(7), 614-621. Abuse Trauma Index) 5) Sleep Disturbance 6) Sexual Problems. • In this study, personal trauma experience affected people’s emotional forecasts towards negative life events. This provides support to the • Janoff-Bulman, R. (1989). Assumptive Worlds and The Stress of • Cumulative Trauma Scale (Short Form) (TQS-C-A). Is a 32-item scale lingering effects of trauma experience, and speaks to its role in victims’ daily thought processing and decision-making (Janoff-Bulman, Traumatic Events: Applications of The Schema Construct. Social developed by Kira, Lewandowski, Templin, Ramaswamy, Ozkan & Cognition, 7, 113-136. 1989; Van der Kolk, 2014). The implication of atypical affective forecasting for the lived experience of trauma victims is currently being Mohanesh (2008) and measures the frequency and effect of exposure to • Kogut, T., & Ritov, I. (2005). The “idenfied vicm” effect: An idenfied examined. traumatic situations. group, or just a single individual?. Journal of Behavioral Decision • These results provide insight to the extent of trauma’s influence on the daily lives of individuals. • Trauma Index was created by summing total standardized scores of Making, 18(3), 157-167. Implications • Van der Kolk, B. A. (2014). The body keeps the score. Viking. trauma frequency, effect and symptoms. • The Frequency of trauma experience is common across both samples with only two reporting never having been exposed to a traumatic • Väsjäll, D., Slovic, P., Mayorga, M., & Peters, E. (2014). Compassion Negative Affect experience on the TQS-C-A, in line with previous research (Finkelhor et al., 2013 ). Trauma’s uniqueness lies in its effect on people’s fade: Affect and charity are greatest for a single child in need. PloS • Negative Emotion was measured using a composite score of three one, 9(6), e100115. daily reactions and decision making, which is seen in the scope insensitive affective forecasts. emotional dimensions; sad, bad and negative. Participants rated their • Wilson, T. D. & Gilbert, D. T. (2003). Affective Forecasting. Advances in • This work as well as previous work (Kogut & Ritov, 2005; Vastfjall, Slovic, Mayorga & Peters, 2014 ) illustrate our insensitive reactions emotion on a seven point likert scale from not at all to extremely. Experimental Social Psychology, 35, 345-411. to larger tragedies, which in turn risk leaving larger tragedies under-aided and underfunded. • Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T. & Axsom, D. Adapted from Dunn & Ashton-James (2007). • Our study provides a closer understanding to the experiences that affect our information processing and emotional reactions. (2000). Focalism: A Source of Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting. Journal of Psychology and Social Psychology, 78, 821-836.