Friday 24 April 2015 Issued By
Friday 24th April 2015 (For the period 24th to 28th April 2015) Issued by National Agrometeorological Advisory Service Centre, Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune. ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2015 Southwest monsoon rainfall (a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. (b) The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below: Category Rainfall Range Forecast Probability Climatological (% of LPA) (%) Probability (%) Deficient < 90 33 16 Below Normal 90 - 96 35 17 Normal 96 -104 28 33 Above Normal 104 -110 3 16 Excess > 110 1 17 Standardised Precipitation Index Four Weekly th nd for the Period Period 26 March to 22 April 2015 Extremely/severely wet conditions experienced in most districts of Telangana, Gujarat; many districts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh; few districts of Bihar, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala; Mandi, Hamirpur,Solan districts of Himachal Pradesh; Raigad district of Konkan; Durg, Mahasamund districts of Chhattisgarh; Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh; Golaghat, Tinsukia, Hailakandi districts of Assam; Malda district of West Bengal; Nawapara and Rayagada districts of Odisha, Deoghar, West Singbhum and Jamtara districts of Jharkhand. Severely /moderately dry conditions experienced in Chandel, Senapati district of Manipur; Kolasib district of Mizoram, Dharwad district of North interior Karnataka.
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