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Friday 24 April 2015 Issued By Friday 24th April 2015 (For the period 24th to 28th April 2015) Issued by National Agrometeorological Advisory Service Centre, Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune. ESSO-IMD’s Operational long range Forecast for the 2015 Southwest monsoon rainfall (a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. (b) The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below: Category Rainfall Range Forecast Probability Climatological (% of LPA) (%) Probability (%) Deficient < 90 33 16 Below Normal 90 - 96 35 17 Normal 96 -104 28 33 Above Normal 104 -110 3 16 Excess > 110 1 17 Standardised Precipitation Index Four Weekly th nd for the Period Period 26 March to 22 April 2015 Extremely/severely wet conditions experienced in most districts of Telangana, Gujarat; many districts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh; few districts of Bihar, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala; Mandi, Hamirpur,Solan districts of Himachal Pradesh; Raigad district of Konkan; Durg, Mahasamund districts of Chhattisgarh; Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh; Golaghat, Tinsukia, Hailakandi districts of Assam; Malda district of West Bengal; Nawapara and Rayagada districts of Odisha, Deoghar, West Singbhum and Jamtara districts of Jharkhand. Severely /moderately dry conditions experienced in Chandel, Senapati district of Manipur; Kolasib district of Mizoram, Dharwad district of North interior Karnataka. Rest of the country experienced moderately wet/mildly dry/wet conditions. Contour maps for Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperature and their anomaly for the week ending on 22.04.2015 Actual Mean Maximum Temperature (oC) in India for the Mean Maximum Temperature (oC) Anomaly in India for week ending 22.04.2015 the week ending 22.04.2015 Mean maximum temperature was above 400C over many Mean maximum temperature were below normal by 2 to parts of Gujarat, a few parts of West Rajasthan and 40C over Marathwada, many parts of East Uttar Pradesh, isolated parts of West Madhya Pradesh. Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Interior Mean maximum temperature ranged between 36 to 400C Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, a few parts of Madhya Pradesh, over Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Madhya Maharashtra, isolated parts of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Kerala. Marathwada, many parts of Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Mean maximum temperature were above normal by 2 to Gangetic West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Rayalaseema, 40C over many parts of Saurashtra & Kutch, a few parts North Interior Karnataka, a few parts of Punjab, isolated of West Rajasthan. parts of Uttarakhand, Gujarat, South Interior Karnataka . It was normal to near normal in remaining parts of the It was below 360C over remaining parts of the country, country, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Actual Mean Minimum Temperature (oC) in India for the Mean Minimum Temperature (oC) Anomaly in India for week ending 22.04.2015 the week ending 22.04.2015 Mean minimum temperature ranged between 12 to 160C Mean minimum temperature was below normal by 2 to over many parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh. 40C over a few parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, It was 16 to 200C over Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, isolated parts of Madhya Maharashtra, South Interior Nagaland, a few parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Karnataka and Kerala. Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, isolated Mean minimum temperature was above normal by 2 to parts of Uttarakhand, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal & 60C over Saurashtra & Kutch, many parts of West South Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Rajasthan, Gujarat region, a few parts of Uttarakhand, It was above 200C over rest of the country and West Uttar Pradesh, isolated parts of East Rajasthan, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Sikkim and Jharkhand. It was normal to near normal in remaining parts of the country Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Contour maps for Relative Humidity, Cloud amount and Wind speed for the week ending on 22.04.2015 Relative Humidity (%) over India for the week ending Cloud amount (okta) over India for the week ending 22.04.2015 22.04.2015 Mean Relative humidity was above 80% over a few parts of Sky remained cloudy (6 to 8 okta) over Arunachal Sikkim, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and isolated parts of Pradesh, Nagaland, many parts of Assam & Meghalaya, Assam & Meghalaya, Kerala, Lakshadweep. Manipur, isolated parts of Tamil Nadu. Mean Relative humidity was 60 to 80% over North East India, Sky remained mainly cloudy (4 to 6 okta) over Sikkim, West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, many Mizoram and Tripura, many parts of Sub-Himalayan parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha, Konkan, Coastal West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andaman & Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Nicobar Islands, a few parts of Gangetic West Bengal Islands, a few parts of Bihar, Rayalaseema, South Interior and isolated parts of Jammu & Kashmir, South Interior Karnataka and isolated parts of Madhya Pradesh, North Karnataka. Interior Karnataka. Sky remained partly cloudy (2 to 4 okta) over 20 to 60% over rest of the country. Marathwada, Goa, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep, many parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, a few parts of West Rajasthan, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and isolated parts of Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu where sky remained mainly clear. Wind speed (knots) over India for the week ending 22.04.2015 Mean wind speed was 8 to 12 over isolated parts of Coastal Odisha. Mean wind speed was 4 to 8 knots over many parts of Haryana, Delhi, Saurashtra & Kutch, West Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Odisha, a few parts of Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha and Tamil Nadu, isolated parts of Rajasthan, Bihar, Gujarat region, Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu. It was less than 4 knots over rest of the country, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. INSAT 3A CCD NDVI COMPOSITE ENDING ON 23rd April 2015 OVER AGRICULTURAL REGION OF INDIA Agricultural vigour is very good in some parts of West Bengal and some pockets of Konkan and Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, north Punjab, west INSAT 3A CCD NDVI Composite ending on 23 Uttar Pradesh and east Bihar where NDVI varies April 2015 over Agricultural region between 0.4 to 0.6. Agricultural growth was good over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and some parts of east Rajasthan, Gujarat region, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu (NDVI: 0.3-0.4). NDVI remains within the range of 0.2 to 0.3 over most parts of rest of the India. Persistent cloud < 0.2 / bare soil / wet background 0.2 – 0.3 0.3 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.5 0.5 – 0.6 >0.6 Difference in INSAT 3A CCD NDVI between 16th April and 23rd April 2015 Decrease in NDVI was observed over Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar and West Bengal and east Rajasthan, some parts in west Rajasthan Difference in INSAT 3A CCD NDVI between 16 April 2015 and 23 April 2015 and western MP. Moderate progress (up to 0.1) in NDVI was observed in Uttarakhand, Saurashtra and Kutch, Tamil Nadu, Odisha Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, eastern MP, Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh. NDVI Agricultural change progress up to 0.1 Moderate 0.1 – 0.2 Good 0.2 – 0.3 Very Good > 0.3 Excellent Decrease No change INSAT 3A CCD NDVI composite maps for the week ending on 23rd April 2015 for different States are given below in Annexure II. Weather Forecast for next 5 days valid upto 0830 hours of 29th April 2015 Gradual rise in day temperatures over northwest, central and west India. 5 day Rainfall Forecast (MORNING) 24-April-2015 Weather Warning during next 5 days 24 April (Day 1): Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu & Puducherry. Thunderstorms with squall/hail would occur at isolated places over West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Odisha. 25 April (Day 2): Thunderstorms with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and Odisha. 26 April (Day 3): Thunderstorms with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal & Sikkim. 27 April (Day 4): Thunderstorms with squall would occur at isolated places over West Bengal & Sikkim and Odisha. 28 April (Day 5): Thunderstorms with squall would occur at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura. Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days From 29th April 2015 to 1st May 2015 Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over western Himalayan region. Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over northeastern states and at a few places over adjoining east India. Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over peninsular India. Weather Forecast Map (Valid upto 0830 hours of 29th April, 2015) Satellite image dated, 24.04.2015 0600 UTC Salient Advisories As rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Arunachal Pradesh during the period, over Assam & Meghalaya on 24th and 25th and over Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram & Tripura 24th, 25th and 26th April along with heavy rainfall at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya on 24th April, postpone irrigation, intercultural operation and application of plant protection measures and fertilizers to the standing crops. Keep the harvested produces at safer places. Provide adequate drainage in standing crop fields to avoid water stagnation in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya.
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