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Effects of Changes in Climate and Land Cover on Tanzanian Nature-Based Tourism in National Parks: How Are Tourist Attractions Affected?

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Effects of Changes in Climate and Land Cover on Tanzanian Nature-Based Tourism in National Parks: How Are Tourist Attractions Affected? Effects of changes in climate and land cover on Tanzanian nature-based tourism in national parks: How are tourist attractions affected? Halima Kilungu Hassan Thesis committee Promoter Prof. Dr R. Leemans Professor of Environmental Systems Analysis Wageningen University and Research Co-promoters Dr B. Amelung Assistant professor, Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University and Research Prof. Dr P.K.T. Munishi Professor of Ecosystems Analysis and Assessment Department of Ecosystems and Conservation Sokoine University of Agriculture Other members Prof. Dr van der Duim, Wageningen University and Research Dr Machiel Lamers, Wageningen University and Research Dr Pita Verweij, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Prof. Dr Christina Skarpe, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Norway This research was conducted under the auspices of the Graduate School for Socio-Economic and Natural Sciences of the Environment (SENSE). Effects of changes in climate and land cover on Tanzanian nature-based tourism in national parks: How are tourist attractions affected? Halima Kilungu Hassan Thesis Submitted in the fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of Rector Magnificus Prof. Dr A.P.J. Mol, in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Academic Board to be defended in public on Tuesday July 2, 2019 at 11 a.m. in the Aula. Halima Kilungu Hassan Effects of changes in climate and land cover on Tanzanian nature-based tourism in national parks: How are tourist attractions affected? 145 pages PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands (2019) With references, with summary in English ISBN: 978-94-6343-921-3 DOI https://doi.org/10.18174/472955 Acknowledgements The process of attaining a PhD is a long and winding journey. During this journey, I received much support and met many people whom today I convey my sincere gratitude. I first, thank God the Almighty for the gift of life and health. I am grateful to my employer, the Open University of Tanzania (OUT) for offering me a study leave and conducive environment to conduct research activities. I appreciate the financial support from the OUT through the World Bank project grant number IDA 4454-OTZ/02 and NUFUTZ-2007/10229 of the Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) through Prof. Dr. P.K.T. Munishi. Without this support, I could not have realized my PhD. Furthermore, I appreciate SUA for providing me with peaceful context, office space to write my thesis and for enhancing my presentation skills through teaching. I also thank the Wageningen University and Research (WUR), specifically the Environmental Systems Analysis group (ESA) for favourable study life abroad and an opportunity to share my PhD thesis internationally in several occasions. More importantly, I would like to thank my promoter, Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans and my co-supervisors Dr. Bas Amelung and Prof. Dr. P.K.T. Munishi for their support and guidance to complete my PhD research and my public defense in the Aula. To Dr. Bas: I appreciate your support that started before I was admitted as a PhD student at WUR. You first read my PhD concept note, accepted to be my supervisor, and then secured the admission before we physically met. Your support extended from the first day I arrived in Wageningen when you bought the Dutch transport card and kindly walked me around to familiarize with the Wageningen ‘city of life sciences’ and the University premises. Your support continued to the time of writing-up the thesis lines and publishing papers. Bas, I will not forget your guidance in the hazard-activity pairs approach in Chapter 4 of my thesis and the eco-parcel approach. I learned a lot from you; thank you for all your help in my research life. Many thanks to Prof. Rik. You were extremely supportive during all steps of my PhD. Your door was continuously open for all kinds of assistance. Your scientific guidance gave me the feeling of safety, peace and confidence in my academic life encounter. You were never tired; through emails and face-to-face, you encouraged me to keep improving my ‘eco-parcel’ approach. You always said, “eco-parcel is Halima’s inventive newly developed approach that is generic to assess the impacts of changes in climate and land cover on individual tourist attractions in nature-based tourism destinations”. You thus made me proud of the eco-parcel approach. I also appreciate your guidance in my thesis introduction and synthesis chapters and to publishing papers. I generally appreciate your immeasurable support and understanding even during my health struggles. I felt as comfortable as I was with my family. Rik, you have been my father in a foreign land. To Prof. Munishi, my co-supervisor: words alone cannot explain how appreciative I am. But suffice it to say, you are my mentor and role model. You encouraged me to register for PhD, read my concept notes and accepted to be my supervisor even before I got any admission. In my PhD project, you were constantly ready to lend a hand even in critical hours of the day. Your constructive comments enabled me to be on a scientific realm and made possible to publish several papers, write my thesis and attend scientific presentations in the UK and USA. I was thrilled when the paper we co-authored about wetlands, climate change and livelihood won the first winner prize in the World Symposium on Climate Change in Manchester in 2015. I appreciate your guidance on the eco-parcel approach. When you learned that I climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro during my data collection, you told me the uplifting words “PhD is a mountain but not as high as Mt. Kilimanjaro”. You thus encouraged me to reach the ‘summit’ of my PhD. You assisted in securing the necessary research permits, such as COSTECH, TAWIRI and TANAPA and you purchased climate data from Tanzania Meteorological Agency. Within your tight schedules, you managed to assist and escort me to Serengeti and Kilimanjaro National Parks for the feasibility study to ensure that the methodology design and data collected are of scientific relevance. I also appreciate for involving me in your projects as a capacity enhancement process. I have learnt a lot from you. Further, I want to thank Dr. Sarah Nicholls of the Swansea University School of Management in the UK. I thank Bas for bringing Sarah in my life. Your encounter in 2016 changed my life. We finally co-authored the Kilimanjaro paper published in 2019. Many thanks to Dr. Cuthbert Nahonyo of the University of Dar es Salaam and Prof. Sylvester Mpanduji, my brother in-law and the Executive Director - SIDO for your cordial and scientific support. At the OUT, I sincerely extend my thanks to Prof. E.T. Bisanda, the Vice Chancellor and Prof. D.D. Ngaruko, the Deputy Vice Chancellor-Academic. Your tireless encouragement, guidance and positive support in my PhD journey were the light to my success. Prof. Ngaruko, I appreciate your initiative through OUT to support my paper presentation in the UK in 2015. Many thanks to Mr Fransis Badundwa, academic staff recruitment officer, for your support. My gratitude extends to all OUT staff members, particularly those in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (FASS) and the tourism department, who in one-way or another helped me. Thank you so much, Dr. Felician Mutasa (Dean - FASS), Dr Shogo Mlozi (former Head of Tourism Department) and Dr. Ladislaus Batinoluho (Head of the Tourism Department). Furthermore, I thank the Tanzania National Parks Authority for giving me free entrance permits, temperature and rainfall data and tourist arrivals data in Serengeti and Kilimanjaro National Parks. Specifically, I thank Mr. Mathew Mombo (former KINAPA Tourism Park Warden and currently Mikumi Chief Park Warden) and the late Mr. Godson Kimaro (Serengeti Tourism Park Warden) for their hospitability during my data collection period. Your real-time tourism and climate-change impacts experiences you shared in your respective parks sharpened my climate-tourism assessments in Chapters 4 and 5 of my thesis. I thank Mr Amani Gibson and Mr. Emanuel Kikoti (KINAPA’s park ecologists) for availing real-time climatic impacts on ecosystems. I would further like to thank all staff members and fellow PhD students of the WUR-ESA group. I enjoyed sharing life experience in Wageningen with all of you and I have good memories of the ESA outings. To Ms. Ria Cuperus (retired) and Ms. Mathilde Witteveen, the secretaries of the ESA. At different periods, you helped me with the administrative issues. To Dr. Monique Gulickx (former SENSE coordinator), much thanks for your encouragements and scientific guidance. Thanks to Dr. Maryna Strokal, Dr. Aritta Suwarno and Ms. Dian Afriyanti for your scientific contribution in my thesis when we were all PhD students. Thanks to all the Tanzanian WUR students for their support. I also thank Dr. Elizabeth Kilines Sekwiha, a staff of the University of Dar Salaam for your grammatical support when compiling my thesis book. I appreciate Mr. Baraka Naftal, for GIS tutorials. Thanks to my field assistants: Mr. Bulenga George, Emmanuel Holotu, Hassan Labia and Mathew Darema. Finally, special thanks to my family members in Tanzania. I start with my late father, Mr. Kilungu. During your lifetime, you always encouraged me to study further and you often said; ‘my daughter, you are strong’. Your words gave me hope and still keep me going despite your absence. To you mama: Ms. Mariam, despite the fact that you did not attend the University to earn a degree, for me, you are the ‘Professor’. You taught me to write, count and read even newspapers before I started standard one. You are who I am today mama.
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