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CEO Study Telecom Implementations Chris Pearson Global Business Consulting Industry Leader 21.11.2008 1 IBM Telecom Industry Agenda . CEO Study – Enterprise of the Future . IBM’s view of the Telecom market . IP Economy . The Change agenda . World is becoming Smarter 2 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation We spoke toIBM 1,130 Telecom CEOs Industry and conducted in-depth analyses to identify the characteristics of the Enterprise of the Future How are organizations addressing . New and changing customers – changes at the end of the value chain . Global integration – changes within the value chain . Business model innovation – their response to these changes Scope and Approach: 1,130 CEOs and Public Sector Leaders . One-hour interviews using a structured questionnaire . 78% Private and 22% Public Sector . Representative sample across 32 industries . 33% Asia, 36% EMEA, 31% Americas . 80% Established and 20% Emerging Economies Analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative . Respondents’ current behavior, investment patterns and future intent . Choices made by financial outperformers . Multivariate analysis to identify clusters of responses . Selective case studies of companies that excel in specific areas 3 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry The Enterprise of the Future is . 1 2 3 4 5 Hungry Innovative Globally Disruptive Genuine, for beyond integrated by not just change customer nature generous imagination 4 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation Telecom CEOsIBM Telecom anticipate Industry more change ahead; are adjusting business models; investing in innovation and new capabilities Telecom CEOs : Hungry . Expect significant change (increased by 30%) …but the ability to for manage change has not kept pace – 38% feel unprepared Change . Invest significantly more than their peers in other industries in newly Innovative Beyond proposerous and informed customers but through traditonal Customer products and services Imagination . Are reaching beyond the traditional global supply chain of infrastructure / devices and accessing global delivery capabilities, Globally partners and knowledge assets to serve their local and core Integrated markets . Have a greater focus on business model transformation with revenue Disruptive by nature model innovation the most favored; CEOs of ‘outperforming’ organizations focus on enterprise/ industry model innovation . Do not view corporate social responsibility as a major issue, but are Genuine, nevertheless planning to increase modest investments in CSR- not just generous?: related programs Source: 47 Telco CEO interviews 5 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Expectations of significant change has increased by 30% among Telecom CEOs since 2006; change gap has more than doubled The Change Gap in Telecom has more than doubled 2006 2008 % % CHANGE CHANGE 10 GAP* 25 GAP* 4% 8% 6% 17% 27% 27% 6% 87% 19% 67% 57% 62% Change Needed Past Change Change Needed Past Change Success Success “ We have seen more change in the last ten years than in the previous 90.” - Ad J. Scheepbouwer, CEO KPN Telecom Source: IBM Global CEO Study 2008; n (2006) = 48, n (2008) = 47 * Difference or ‘gap’ between expected level of change needed and past success in managing change 6 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry In anticipation of changes telecom executives increase focus on revenue growth and business model innovation 2007 - 2012 What do you believe will deliver the main sources of value for your company over the next 5 years and how different will they be from the previous five? Sources of value in Global Telecommunications 2002 - 2012 2002-2007 2007-2012 34% 69% Business Model Transformation 73% 65% Revenue Growth 29% 38% Synergies from M&A and consolidation 40% 35% Opex Reductions 41% 21% Capex Reductions 3% 4% Other The Past The Future Source: The 2007 IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV) and Economist Intelligence EIU) Telecom Industry Executive Survey (n=252) 7 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation Specifically IBMtelecom Telecom providers Industry are seeking new sources of revenue and moving toward collaborative operating models Which of the following will your company be focusing on to increase revenues over the next five years? Select up to three. Sources of value in Global Telecommunications 2002 - 2012 Converged services 82% Collaborating extensively 72% with external partners Enable 3rd-party access 53% to telecom capabilities Bundled packages 49% Move into Media and 46% Entertainment Move into IT services 40% Vary revenue model to 33% include advertising 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: The 2007 IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV) and Economist Intelligence EIU) Telecom Industry Executive Survey (n=252) 8 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry IBM’s view of the market 9 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Business Waves of Change.. Value migration or Creation? Virtual OTT Transnational IT Investment Investment IT Multinational Large national International 1950 1980 2000 2008 Timeframe 10 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Value is migrating from the network to services 11 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Business Challenge – revenues do not track data volume increases 12 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation And with increasedIBM Telecom Industryvideo consumption this trend is imposing additional strain and costs on telcos providers Global IP Traffic forecast Source: 2008: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast 2007- 2012 40,000 Mobility Example: Business Internet December 2007 launch of BBC’s iPlayer 30,000 Business IP WAN Consumer Internet resulted for ISP : Consumer IPTV/CATV MOSTLY . 72% more customers using over 250MB 20,000 OVER THE TOP .100% more customers using over 1 GB TRAFFIC Petabyte/month 10,000 additional cost for PlusNet: + 200% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Massive growth of Internet traffic from OTT applications as YouTube, MySpace and Facebook is driving up costs for telcos 13 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation As services converge,IBM Telecom Industryexpect incremental growth of 2% PA, equating to $500B+ in new opportunity in 2012 2012 Global Revenues, 2007 – 2012 CAGR 2012 ’07 – ’12 Service Revenue CAGR Mobile (Internet $284B 27% Mobile Services, Advertising, Access) Home/Office- $160B 18% Fixed based Broadband Voice (Services, Access Advertising) IPTV $35B 66% Fixed/Mobile $33B 220% 2012 WW Converged Convergence Revenues : $ 538B Content Mobile TV $21B 96% Advertising 2007 – 2012 WW , Marketing Converged CAGR: 15% Source: Gartner, PwC Global Outlook, eMarketer, IBM analysis 14 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation ….that are spawningIBM Telecom Industrya generation of over-the-top (OTT) service providers in a new competitive space Mobile Mobile Communications Communications Advertising Digital Conten t New Competitive Fixed Voice Portals Commerce Fixed Voice Broadband Broadband Communications Communications Access space Access CommunicationsSearch Social networ k Content and Content and Advertising Advertising 15 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Common themes are emerging from OTT providers Portals/Search Analysis Attributes Implications Users Platform Growth Network Data Volume Platform Users Platforms Providers Applications/Services Rich Content IP Network 16 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Potential distinctive capabilities include Managed Architecture, Infrastructur HW & SW e Real time Design business analytics Scale, Mobile Volume and Communications Throughput Federated Identity / Security Operations New Presence Fixed Voice Competitive Themes Broadband Communications space Access Developer Relations Capabilities Vault Home Zone Innovation Content and Advertising Charging payment Experience 17 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation OpportunityIBM is Telecomto be Industryheart of IP economy £$€¥ Real-time solutions production line 18 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry Change is essential 19 Storm Warning | ZA Lozinski | Clouds v0.0 - September 2008 | IBM Confidential © 2008 IBM Corporation IBM Telecom Industry IP Assembly …Real time reconfiguration Existing structure Portfolio and production structure IP Assembly converged offerings, focused on specific highly customizable to very limited flexibility, cumbersome customer segments individual needs integration pre-configured freely configurable products
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