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D E F E N C E P R I M DEFENCE PRIMER An Indian Military in Transformation? EDITORS PUSHAN DAS & HARSH V. PANT DEFENCE PRIMER An Indian Military in Transformation? EDITED BY PUSHAN DAS & HARSH V. PANT © 2018 BY OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION ISBN: 978-81-86818-21-3 Copy editing: Udita Chaturvedi Designed by: Simijaisondesigns Printed by: Vinset Advertising CONTENTS CHINA’s MilitARY RISE AND THE INDIAN CHALLENGE 4 Harsh V. Pant & Pushan Das The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in Transition: Implications for 16 Indian Defence Richard A. Bitzinger Achieving India’s Military Goals in an Era of Transition 26 Lt. Gen. S L Narasimhan (Retd.) Closing the Gap: A Doctrinal & Capability Appraisal of the IAF & 35 the PLAAF AVM Arjun Subramaniam (Retd.) Indian Vasuki vs Chinese Dragon: Towards a Future-Ready 44 Indian Seapower RADM Sudarshan Shrikhande (Retd.) Indian Military in Transformation - Combat Potential and Military 55 Capabilities Vis – a – Vis China Brig. Arun Sahgal (Retd.) Managing Comprehensive Competition with China: Insights from 72 Multi-Domain Battle Arzan Tarapore Virtual Domains and Real Threats: Chinese Military Capacities in 83 New Frontiers of Warfare Elsa B. Kania Nuclear Weapons and Sino-Indian Security Relations 92 S. Paul Kapur and Diana Wueger 6 INDIAN MILITARY IN TRANSFORMATION COmbAT POTENTIAL AND MILITARY CAPABilities Vis – a – Vis China BRIG. ARUN SAHGAL (RETD.) discernible bellicosity in the looks upon as a containment strategy to restrain Chinese attitude towards India her rise. Resultantly, China has hardened its has resulted in increased tensions stand against India on almost all bilateral and and aggravated boundary disputes. multilateral issues, severely constraining areas ASince 2015, there have been three major of convergence in bilateral relations. This was Chinese intrusions, two in the Ladakh Sector particularly visible in China vetoing India’s (Depsang and Chumar) and the latest in the membership of the Nuclear Supplier Group form of a 74-day standoff at Doklam on the (NSG) and its inflexible stand on terrorism, India-Bhutan-China un-demarcated tri-junction. notably in the declaration of Jaish-e-Mohammad Muscle flexing, assertive border posture and, Chief Masood Azhar as a United Nations incursions across the Line of Actual Control sanctioned terrorist. (LAC)—including into settled or undisputed areas—have become standard coercive tactics by Another source of bilateral tensions is the China to keep tensions alive and New Delhi on increasing Sino-Pakistan collusion and the the defensive. Attempts at perpetuating border massive Chinese investments in Pakistan under tensions is largely on accounts of perceived the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), military asymmetry and an upgraded Chinese a major infrastructure boosting initiative military posture in Tibet. involving approximately $64 billion. To appease China, Pakistan has ceded large tracts of land Apart from the military asymmetry, belligerence in the disputed Jammu & Kashmir territory for can also be attributed to India’s steady economic upgradation of Karakoram Highway connecting rise, enhanced global standing following a major the disturbed Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous foreign policy push by the Narendra Modi Region with the warm waters of the Indian government, and more importantly the India- Ocean at the newly developed port city of US-Japan strategic convergence which China Gwadar. What is of concern is the bourgeoning Defence Primer / 55 military relationship that transcends military sales of interest is that the time period of proposed and technologies, sharing of nuclear know how national rejuvenation coincides with the PLA and even access to the restricted Chinese geo- modernisation, and its evolution into “a world- navigation system BeiDou that has significantly class army by 2050”. Even more importantly, enhanced the accuracy of Pakistan’s nuclear the absolute leadership of the Party over the delivery capability1. PLA further underscores the role of the military power in achieving Chinese revitalisation goals. Although Beijing has traditionally underplayed There should be little doubt that China will threat from India, it has off late begun to look not be shy to leverage military power both for at India as a part of strategic collusion of dispute resolution or regional assertiveness to forces arrayed against it, principally acting in achieve its political goals. concert with the US-led alliance system. Thus, it perceives India as a “near peer competitor”, PLA Military Reforms and their which if not contained could pose a challenge Relevance for India to China’s regional and global aspirations in the The thrust of the PLA modernisation is to long run. make the 2.25 million-strong force leaner and more efficient through doctrinal changes, Scope structural reforms and manpower rationalisation. Within the backdrop of a growing military The overall approach of restructuring and challenge from China, the paper looks at the modernisation is to achieve revolution in military nature of threat posed by the People’s Liberation affairs (RMA) with Chinese characteristics by Army (PLA) in terms of its force capabilities, 2020; and evolve as a fully informationised doctrines and infrastructure in Tibet. It also force, capable of winning information age tries to analyse India’s doctrinal and capability warfare, by 2049. These twin aims are central to enhancement required to meet the Chinese the realisation of the `Chinese dream’ and its challenge in the medium-term perspective ‘rejuvenation’ as a great nation. (2030). Objective of Reforms PLA in Chinese Revitalisation The two basic objectives of reforms are to Strategy centralise the PLA’s decision making in the hands The 19th Party Congress has resulted in of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and consolidation of power under President Xi to transform the historically land-dominated Jinping, which has, apart from other things, military into an integrated force. The thrust of put PLA at centre stage in the Chinese political the reforms therefore revolves around: hierarchy. The focus of President Xi’s political report was to achieve “great rejuvenation of n Revamping structures and systems at the Chinese nation” and restore China to its political, strategic and operational levels. A rightful great power status by 2049. What is three-tier system has been established with 56 / Indian Military in Transformation CMC at the apex, Functional Theater/Battle n A Ground Forces Command (Army Leading Zone Commands at the second, and the Organ - Army HQ equivalent) has been administrative system running from the CMC created to segregate PLA component from to the services at the third place the General Staff Department, where it was n Centralising all political-military decision traditionally embedded into the CMC and making in the CMC that was hitherto enjoyed participated in policy formulation, even for by the PLA (Army)2 the other services. n The erstwhile seven Military Area Commands n The erstwhile Second Artillery Corps has (MACs)/Military Regions (MRs) have been been elevated to the level of an independent reorganised into five `Theater Commands’ service (at par with the Army, the Navy and (Northern, Central, Eastern, Southern and the Air Force) and designated as the PLA Western) to put in place joint structures Rocket Force. It controls all intercontinental to align China’s strategic directions with ballistic missiles, medium range and short- command of troops [See maps] range ballistic missiles. This force will have separate wings for nuclear and conventional Erstwhile and Restructured missiles. Its mission is to develop credible and Military Regions reliable `nuclear deterrence and counter strike n A major troop rationalisation proposal is to capabilities’. reduce 300,000 troops, primarily from the n A significant development is the creation of Army, from other than the Western, Southern a new Strategic Support Force (SSF). The and Eastern Theater Commands, given the service, when fully operationalised, would significance of borders with India, Vietnam serve as the core of information warfare and Taiwan. PLAN and PLAAF are being force and control all aspects of asymmetric accorded priority for modernisation. warfare, including electronic warfare and Defence Primer / 57 space & cyber capabilities, thus creating 70 percent fourth-generation fighter aircraft. substantial force multiplier effect. It also is developing its indigenous fifth- n Along India’s borders, the erstwhile Chengdu generation aircraft, J-20. Its frontline J-10 Military Region and the Lanzhou Military aircraft have been modified for operations Region have been amalgamated to form a in high-altitude areas. China has developed Joint Services Western Theater Command, advanced three-tier air defence system based with its headquarters at Chengdu. on ground-based sensors and airborne n Tibet Military Command (TMC), though electronic warfare aircraft for early warning. It located geographically within the Western has also designed and deployed radar systems Theater Command, has been placed directly that are reportedly optimised to detect under the PLA Ground Forces Commander stealth aircraft, including passive surveillance (along with Xinjiang Military Command). systems. The radars are integrated in an ‘air This enhances the significance of the TMC, intelligence radar network’, covering the entire which is largely India centric. country. n A Joint Logistic Support Force of the CMC, with five logistic support centres, has been PLA Ground Forces created
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