[Korea] Entertainment May 17, 2021

JYP Entertainment Buy (035900 KQ ) (Maintain)

Solid earnings despite absence of concerts TP: W47,000 Upside: 30.9%

Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected]

1Q21 review : Better than Consolidated revenue of W32.3bn ( -4.9% YoY), OP of W13.8bn (+2.5% YoY) expected ó Although 1Q21 revenue contracted on a void in artist activities, OP margin hit a record high of 42.6%, bolstered by the impact of strong digital content revenue. ó Gross margin improved 5.6%p YoY to 65.1%, thanks to overseas content-driven growth (higher mix of non-management revenue). ó 1) Album/digital music (+44.1% YoY): Overseas digital music revenue soared 141% YoY, boosted by a new contract with a Chinese company. Album revenue grew 25% YoY. ó 2) Management (-28.5% YoY): Performance/appearance revenue declined, though advertising revenue modestly recovered (+17% QoQ). ó 3) Merchandise/other (-26.0% YoY): Merchandise revenue slumped 67% YoY, but YouTube revenue continued to grow (+112% YoY to W3.4bn). ó Despite an uptick in SG&A expenses (+7.5% YoY), the shift in the income structure from management to content improved underlying profitability.

Robust earnings expected in New artist projects and artist activities to gather steam 2021 ó Following a lull in 1Q21, JYP’s artist lineup will become active again from 2Q21, with 2PM (full group) and (individual ads and comebacks every two months) resuming activities, releasing a new album every quarter, and continuing activities. ó Given the growing fan bases of the next-generation artist lineup (Stray Kids and ITZY) , expectations on album sales are increasing every year. Meanwhile, NiziU’s album released in April sold 460,000 copies; we estimate the group has contributed over W10bn in revenue so far. ó The company also has ample new artist momentum, with an audition show (LOUD ) airing in June and artist development projects for 2022 underway in China (Project C) and the US. ó We believe the strength of digital content will continue, solidifying the company’s ability to grow earnings without the help of concerts.

Recommendation and valuation Maintain Buy and TP of W47,000 ó Our target valuation is based on a P/E of 30x our 2022F net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W55.2bn. ó Earnings worries caused by the absence of concerts are subsiding thanks to strong content revenue. Expectations on reopening could also come into play. We think JYP Entertainment is in a swe et spot, given its cash cow (TWICE), growth profile (Stray Kids/ITZY), and global exposure (NiziU and new artists in the US/China/Japan). We see potential for collaborations through strategic investments, as well as additional partnerships.

Key data

Current price (5/14/21, W) 35,900 Market cap (Wbn) 1,274 230 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (21F, Wbn) 58 Shares outstanding (mn) 35 180 Consensus OP (21F, Wbn) 55 Free float (%) 74.9 EPS growth (21F, %) 53.0 Foreign ownership (%) 21.4 130 P/E (21F, x) 28.2 Beta (12M) 1.14

80 Market P/E (21F, x) 11.9 52-week low (W) 19,100 5.20 9.20 1.21 5.21 KOSDAQ 966.72 52-week high (W) 43,250

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Absolute 5.7 0.0 67.8 Revenue (Wbn) 102 125 155 144 170 211 Relative 11.0 -13.2 19.8 OP (Wbn) 19 29 43 44 58 73

OP margin (%) 18.6 23.2 27.7 30.6 34.1 34.6 NP (Wbn) 16 24 31 30 45 55 EPS (W) 471 685 883 832 1,273 1,555 ROE (%) 21.4 22.5 21.9 17.3 22.3 22.2 P/E (x) 29.2 44.2 27.4 46.2 28.2 23.1 P/B (x) 4.8 7.7 5.0 7.0 5.4 4.5 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. May 17, 2021 JYP Entertainment

Table 1. JYP Ent.: Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, %p) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21P 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F Revenue 34 34 35 42 32 37 44 56 144 170 211 Album/digital content 10 22 18 24 15 19 23 29 75 85 98 Management 6 3 5 5 4 4 7 13 19 27 41 Concerts 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 5 16 Advertising 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 12 14 14 Appearance fees 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 4 6 8 11 Other 18 9 12 12 13 14 15 15 50 57 72 OP 13.4 9.1 11.1 10.5 13.8 12.9 16.0 15.5 44 58 73 OP margin (%) 39.6 26.5 32.2 25.2 42.6 35.1 36.1 27.5 30.6 34.2 34.8 Pretax profit 14.2 7.9 9.9 5.9 14.3 12.5 15.5 13.7 38 56 71 NP 11.3 4.7 7.7 5.9 12.0 10.0 12.4 10.9 30 45 54 Net margin (%) 33.3 13.8 22.3 14.2 37.2 27.3 27.9 19.4 20.5 26.7 25.7 NP attributable to owners of the parent 11.3 4.7 7.7 5.8 12.0 10.0 12.3 10.9 29.5 45.2 55.2 YoY Revenue 28.9 -12.8 -24.1 -6.0 -4.9 7.2 28.6 35.2 -7.1 17.6 24.0 Album/digital content 8.9 50.6 10.3 47.1 44.1 -16.3 27.5 17.6 31.2 13.5 15.0 Management -38.8 -75.2 -70.5 -53.6 -28.5 26.0 28.9 135.0 -62.3 41.5 50.0 Concerts -37.1 -100.0 -99.5 TTR -76.0 - 554.8 TTB -94.6 333.8 223.3 Advertising -8.2 -39.9 -33.4 -40.2 -11.4 30.0 20.0 60.0 -31.2 21.9 -3.2 Appearance fees -76.3 -83.3 -23.7 10.5 -25.7 -30.0 30.0 50.0 -50.4 25.6 36.4 Other 135.1 -21.6 -4.3 -26.2 -26.0 61.6 30.0 26.1 6.9 14.4 25.0 OP 132.3 -3.9 -24.6 -22.1 2.5 42.0 44.2 47.3 1.6 31.8 25.9 NP 78.6 -32.4 -34.0 -5.2 6.4 113.0 61.0 84.9 -5.1 53.2 19.2 NP attributable to owners of the parent 76.3 -30.9 -34.5 -8.2 6.1 111.0 61.1 86.6 -5.6 53.0 22.2 Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume ( ‘000) 305 1,399 824 1,038 318 600 800 1,000 3,567 2,718 3,126 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concerts and includes estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates

Figure 1. Improvement in underlying profitability thanks to Figure 2. Improvement in underlying profitability thanks to strategic shift from management to content (quarterly) strategic shift from management to content (annual)

(%) (%) (%) (%)

110 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) 70 110 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) 60 100 Gross margin (R) 100 Gross margin (R)

90 60 90 50 80 80

Assuming resumption of 70 50 70 concert activities 60 60 40 50 40 50

40 40

30 30 30 30 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research

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Figure 3. . JYP Entertainment’s daily YouTube views rise in line with new album releases

(mn views) "Mafia In the 30 "I Can't Stop Me" - TWICE Morning" - ITZY "More & More" - TWICE

25 "Wannabe" - ITZY "" "Step and a - ITZY "Make You Step" - NiziU Happy" - NiziU 20 "Not by the Moon" -

15

10

5 "Back Door" - "God's Menu" - Stray Kids Stray Kids

0 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 3/21 5/21

Source: Social Blade, Mirae Asset Securities Research

Figure 4. YouTube views by label: Traffic to increase on NiziU’s growing presence

(mn views) 1,400 SM (SMTOWN) JYP (JYP Entertainment + TWICE) 1,200 YG (YG ENTERTAINMENT + + iKON + WINNER) 1,000 Hybe (HYBE LABELS + BANGTANTV)

800

600

400

200

0 8/15 1/16 6/16 11/16 4/17 9/17 2/18 7/18 12/18 5/19 10/19 3/20 8/20 1/21

Source: Social Blade, Mirae Asset Securities Research

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JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Revenue 155 144 170 211 Current assets 116 127 181 242 Cost of revenue 79 68 77 99 Cash & equivalents 39 35 58 91 GP 76 76 93 112 AR & other receivables 14 19 26 32 SG&A expenses 33 33 35 38 Inventory 1 0 1 1 OP (adj.) 43 44 58 73 Other current assets 62 73 96 118 OP 43 44 58 73 Non-current assets 92 97 96 95 Non-operating profit 0 -6 -2 -2 Investments in associates 0 2 3 3 Net financial income 1 1 2 2 PP&E 39 41 37 34 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 29 31 30 30 Pretax profit 43 38 56 71 Total assets 208 224 277 338 Income tax 12 8 11 17 Current liabilities 43 33 45 56 Profit from continuing operations 31 30 45 54 AP & other payables 10 11 15 19 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 1 1 2 2 NP 31 30 45 54 Other current liabilities 32 21 28 35 Attributable to owners 31 30 45 55 Non-current liabilities 2 4 5 6 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 -1 Long-term financial liabilities 1 2 2 2 Total comprehensive income 32 29 45 54 Other non-current liabilities 1 2 3 4 Attributable to owners 32 29 46 54 Total liabilities 45 38 50 62 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Equity attributable to owners 159 182 223 273 EBITDA 47 48 62 77 Capital stock 18 18 18 18 FCF 49 18 53 61 Capital surplus 77 77 77 77 EBITDA margin (%) 30.3 33.3 36.5 36.5 Retained earnings 76 100 140 190 OP margin (%) 27.7 30.6 34.1 34.6 Minority interests 3 4 4 3 Net margin (%) 20.0 20.8 26.5 26.1 Shareholders' equity 162 186 227 276

Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Operating cash flow 51 22 53 61 P/E (x) 27.4 46.2 28.2 23.1 NP 31 30 45 54 P/CF (x) 17.9 29.3 21.8 17.7 Non-cash income/expenses 16 17 13 18 P/B (x) 5.0 7.0 5.4 4.5 Depreciation 3 4 4 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.3 26.4 18.2 14.1 Amortization 0 0 1 0 EPS (W) 883 832 1,273 1,555 Other 13 13 8 15 CFPS (W) 1,346 1,310 1,646 2,030 Chg. in working capital 6 -12 4 3 BPS (W) 4,818 5,488 6,628 8,039 Chg. in AR & other receivables 1 -6 -7 -6 DPS (W) 155 154 154 154 Chg. in inventory 1 0 0 0 Dividend payout ratio (%) 16.4 17.2 11.2 9.4 Chg. in AP & other payables 1 1 2 1 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 Income tax -4 -14 -11 -17 Revenue growth (%) 24.0 -7.1 18.1 24.1 Cash flow from investing activities -59 -20 -25 -23 EBITDA growth (%) 56.7 2.1 29.2 24.2 Chg. in PP&E -2 -4 0 0 OP growth (%) 48.3 2.3 31.8 25.9 Chg. in intangible assets 0 0 0 0 EPS growth (%) 28.9 -5.8 53.0 22.2 Chg. in financial assets -42 -5 -25 -23 AR turnover (x) 11.6 8.8 7.6 7.3 Other -15 -11 0 0 Inventory turnover (x) 143.1 253.5 322.0 310.1 Cash flow from financing activities 1 -5 -5 -5 AP turnover (x) 26.5 21.6 14.9 14.8 Chg. in financial liabilities 2 2 1 0 ROA (%) 17.0 13.7 18.1 17.6 Chg. in equity 6 0 0 0 ROE (%) 21.9 17.3 22.3 22.2 Dividends -4 -5 -5 -5 ROIC (%) 62.8 64.7 79.6 106.0 Other -3 -2 -1 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 28.0 20.2 22.1 22.3 Chg. in cash -6 -4 24 33 Current ratio (%) 269.4 380.8 402.3 433.6 Beginning balance 45 39 35 58 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -58.5 -50.8 -64.1 -71.9 Ending balance 39 35 58 91 Interest coverage ratio (x) 884.3 471.9 1,021.6 1,150.2 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates

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Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history

Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) JYP Entertainment JYP Entertainment (035900) 11/17/20 Buy 47,000 50,000 08/18/20 Trading Buy 41,000 40,000 05/31/20 Trading Buy 27,000 11/14/19 Buy 31,000 30,000 08/15/19 Buy 28,000 20,000 04/23/19 Buy 41,000 10,000

0 May 19 May 20 May 21

Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 79.00% 13.00% 7.00% 1.00% Investment banking services 63.16% 31.58% 5.26% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2021)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Securities”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Securities except as otherwise stated herein.

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